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Reno De Medici Outperform

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Reno De Medici Outperform Italian Research 3Q14 Results Milan, November 5, 2014 RENO DE MEDICI OUTPERFORM SECTOR: Industrials Price (Eu): 0.28 Jacopo Tagliaferri +39-02-77115.230 e-mail: [email protected] Target Price (Eu): 0.40 Giovanni Ovi +39-02-77115.432 e-mail: [email protected] Positive Quarterly Results, Stable Company Outlook Positive quarterly results. Reno De Medici reported 3Q14 revenues of Eu107.8mn, flattish YoY and 2.3% below our estimate. Volumes sold rose 1.5% YoY to 201,000 tons, RENO DE MEDICI - 12m Performance for an implicit average sale price of Eu536 per ton (-1.0% YoY and +1.9% QoQ). In Europe, demand for cartonboard decreased by 2.8% YoY in the quarter. EBITDA came 0.38 in at Eu8.1mn, down 2.9% YoY and 11.3% above our estimate. The EBITDA margin came 0.36 to 7.5% thanks to “white” certificates (energy efficiency certificates, a reward for the 0.34 0.32 company’s efforts to reduce energy consumption at its manufacturing plants), as well 0.30 as thanks to savings on raw material and energy costs (COGS decreased by 2.9% YoY). 0.28 EBIT amounted to Eu2.3mn, +0.9% YoY, thanks to lower D&A. Net income was Eu1.6mn, 0.26 up sharply YoY after Eu0.7mn in net financial charges and Eu0.7mn in taxes. Finally, net 0.24 N-13 J-14 M-14 M-14 J-14 S-14 N-14 debt went down QoQ from Eu72.8mn at the end of June to Eu68.8mn at the end of RENO DE MEDICI September. RENO DE MEDICI Rel. to BCI Index (Reb.) Stable company outlook. According to the company, “after the closing of the nine months of 2014, the order flow has continued to be satisfactory and the cost of the main production factors has not shown appreciable changes. […] Perspective evolution beyond year-end mostly depends on the pace of the 2015 recovery, with expectations that remain moderate, only slightly above the 2014 growth rate”. RATING: Unchanged EPS estimates unchanged for 2014-2016. We have revised our 2014-2016 sales TARGET PRICE (Eu): Unchanged estimates slightly downward to incorporate the deconsolidation of the cutting and Change in EPS est: 2014E 2015E distribution centre at Wednesbury (UK), which accounted for Eu6.9mn in FY13. We 0.0% 0.0% have not changed our 2014-16 EBITDA estimates even though they appear to be on the conservative side (at least for FY14); indeed, the boarding machine in Santa STOCK DATA Giustina has not started producing at full capacity yet after its modernisation project. Reuters code: RDM.MI Bloomberg code: RM IM We still expect the company to generate around Eu10mn of FCF on average from 2014 to 2016; hence, net debt is forecast to land at Eu42.6mn in 2016. No dividend Performance 1m 3m 12m payments are included in our estimates, as the company has not released any Absolute -6.9% -7.5% 0.9% Relative -2.6% -1.4% 1.9% indications on this issue. 12 months H/L: 0.36/0.25 OUTPERFORM reaffirmed, target price unchanged. We confirm our positive view on Reno De Medici as: 1) the macroeconomic environment is stable: demand is forecast SHAREHOLDER DATA to gradually pick up in 2015 and there appear to be no major risks related to raw No. of Ord. shares (mn): 378 material or energy price volatility; 2) company management is strongly committed to Total No. of shares (mn): 378 Mkt Cap Ord (Eu mn): 105 following through with a CAPEX policy to enhance manufacturing plant efficiency and Total Mkt Cap (Eu mn): 105 hence increase production savings. Our target price remains unchanged at Eu0.40. At Mkt Float - ord (Eu mn): 33 our target, Reno De Medici would still be trading at a discount to Mayr-Melnhof, which Mkt Float (in %): 31.2% would be justified given structural differences in profitability and ROCE to its main Main shareholder: competitor; it would also still be among the cheapest stocks we cover in terms of P/BV Cascades 57.6% and EV/CE. BALANCE SHEET DATA 2014 Book value (Eu mn): 150 Key Figures 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E BVPS (Eu): 0.40 Sales (Eu mn) 466 469 459 477 486 P/BV: 0.7 Ebitda (Eu mn) 2738404345 Net Financial Position (Eu mn): -65 Net profit (Eu mn) -122101111 Enterprise value (Eu mn): 169 EPS - New (Eu) -0.033 0.005 0.025 0.029 0.030 EPS - Old (Eu) -0.033 0.005 0.025 0.029 0.030 DPS (Eu) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report Ratios & Multiples 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E P/E nm 59.0 11.0 9.5 9.3 Div. Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% EV/Ebitda 5.7 4.4 4.8 3.9 3.4 ROCE -0.6%3.9%7.9%8.9%10.1% The reproduction of the information, recommendations and research produced by Intermonte SIM contained herein, and of any of its parts, is strictly prohibited. None of the contents of this document may be shared with third parties without Company authorization. Intermonte SIM S.p.A. Milan 20122 (Italy) - Corso Vittorio Emanuele II, 9 - phone: +39-02-77115.1 fax: +39-02-77115.300 New York - (USA) - Sales contacts: JPP Eurosecurities, 595 Madison Avenue, 10022 - phone: +1 (212) 521 6718 RENO DE MEDICI - KEY FIGURES 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Fiscal year end 31/12/2012 31/12/2013 31/12/2014 31/12/2015 31/12/2016 PROFIT & LOSS (Eu mn) Sales 466 469 459 477 486 EBITDA 27 38 40 43 45 EBIT (1) 8 17 19 22 Financial income (charges) (7) (6) (6) (6) (5) Associates & Others (3) (1) 1 1 1 Pre-tax profit (Loss) (12) 1121417 Taxes (1) 1 (2) (3) (6) Tax rate (%) 6.3% 102.2% -17.3% -21.4% -33.0% Minorities & discontinue activities (0) (0) 0 0 0 Net profit -12 2 10 11 11 Total extraordinary items (6) (2) 5 2 2 Ebitda excl. extraordinary items 33 40 35 41 43 Ebit excl. extraordinary items (1) 8 17 19 22 Net profit restated (12) 2101111 PER SHARE DATA (Eu) Total shares out (mn) - average fd 378 378 378 378 378 EPS stated fd -0.033 0.005 0.025 0.029 0.030 EPS restated fd -0.033 0.005 0.025 0.029 0.030 BVPS fd 0.362 0.371 0.396 0.425 0.455 Dividend per share (ord) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Dividend per share (sav) 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Dividend pay out ratio (%) CASH FLOW (Eu mn) Gross cash flow 16 32 34 35 35 Change in NWC 5 2 (5) (4) (3) Capital expenditure (18) (15) (17) (18) (18) Other cash items (5) (6) (3) (3) (3) Free cash flow (FCF) (1) 13 8 10 12 Acquisitions, divestments & others 2 0 0 0 0 Dividend 00000 Equity financing/Buy-back 00000 Change in Net Financial Position 0 13 8 10 12 BALANCE SHEET (Eu mn) Total fixed assets 238 219 212 206 201 Net working capital 4240454952 Long term liabilities (48) (45) (43) (40) (38) Net capital employed 223 213 214 216 215 Net financial position (86) (73) (65) (54) (43) Group equity 137 140 149 160 172 Minorities 11111 Net equity 137 141 150 161 172 ENTERPRISE VALUE (Eu mn) Average mkt cap - current 105 105 105 105 105 Adjustments (associate & minorities) 2 1 1 1 1 Net financial position (86) (73) (65) (54) (43) Enterprise value 189 177 169 159 147 RATIOS(%) EBITDA margin* 7.1% 8.5% 7.7% 8.5% 8.9% EBIT margin* nm 1.8% 3.7% 4.0% 4.5% Gearing - Debt/equity 63.1% 52.5% 43.5% 33.6% 25.0% Interest cover on EBIT nm 1.4 2.9 3.4 4.1 Debt/Ebitda 3.19 1.92 1.61 1.27 0.95 ROCE* -0.6% 3.9% 7.9% 8.9% 10.1% ROE* -8.5% 1.3% 6.6% 7.1% 6.8% EV/CE 0.80.80.80.70.7 EV/Sales 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 EV/Ebit nm 20.9 10.0 8.3 6.8 Free Cash Flow Yield -1.3% 12.3% 8.2% 9.6% 11.2% GROWTH RATES (%) Sales -8.0% 0.5% -2.0% 3.8% 2.0% EBITDA* 9.7% 21.2% -11.5% 15.0% 6.4% EBIT* nm nm 98.4% 13.6% 13.6% Net profit nm nm 437.6% 15.4% 2.8% EPS restated nm nm 437.7% 15.4% 2.8% * Excluding extraordinary items Source: Intermonte SIM estimates 2 3 Results Reno De Medici reported 3Q14 revenues of Eu107.8mn, flattish YoY and 2.3% below our estimate. Volumes sold rose 1.5% YoY to 201,000 tons, for an implicit average sale price of Eu536 per ton (-1.0% YoY and +1.9% QoQ). In Europe, demand for cartonboard decreased by 2.8% YoY in the quarter. EBITDA came in at Eu8.1mn, down 2.9% YoY and 11.3% above our estimate. The EBITDA margin came to 7.5% thanks to “white” certificates (energy efficiency certificates, a reward for the company’s efforts to reduce energy consumption at its manufacturing plants), as well as thanks to savings on raw material and energy costs (COGS decreased by 2.9% YoY).
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