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Nicrophorus Americanus) Species Status Assessment Report for the American Burying Beetle (Nicrophorus americanus) © Peter Blanchard (used with permission) Version 1.0 February 2019 ABB SSA Report - February 2019 Species Status Assessment Report for the American Burying Beetle Nicrophorus americanus Prepared by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service February 2019 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This Species Status Assessment (SSA) report is a summary of information assembled and reviewed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service) and incorporates the best scientific and commercial data available. The SSA framework (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2015, entire) is intended to support an in-depth review of the species’ biology and threats, an evaluation of its biological status, and an assessment of the resources and conditions needed to maintain long- term viability. SSAs are not a decision document; rather, the report provides information that helps inform various types of decisions. To evaluate the biological status of the ABB, both currently and into the future, we assessed a range of potential scenarios to allow us to consider the species’ resiliency within populations and the viability of the species over its range. Several factors influence the resiliency of a population to stochastic events. Important factors are habitat availability, carrion availability and climate conditions. As we consider the future viability of the species, higher overall species viability is associated with more populations with high resiliency distributed across the range of the species. The ABB is the largest silphid (carrion beetle) in North America, and is native to 35 states in the United States and the southern borders of three eastern Canadian provinces, covering most of temperate eastern North America. The species is believed to be extirpated from all but nine states in the U.S. and likely from Canada. Based on the last 15 years of records, the ABB is now known to occur in portions of Arkansas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Texas (not documented since 2008), on Block Island off the coast of Rhode Island, and reintroduced populations on Nantucket Island off the coast of Massachusetts and in southwest Missouri. Reintroduction efforts are also underway in Ohio, but survival of reintroduced ABBs into the next year (successful over-wintering) has not yet been documented. A potential report of an ABB in Michigan in 2017 is being investigated to determine if the area supports ABBs. We have assessed the ABB’s levels of resiliency, redundancy, and representation currently and into the future by ranking the condition of each population. We generally refer to ABB populations as clustered, localized areas, roughly defined by habitat differences or other geographical features, with inter-breeding ABB individuals. However, there are no clear boundaries separating many of the areas known to be occupied by ABB. So for the purposes of this analysis we’ve organized the current range of the ABB into analysis areas that follow broad ES-1 ABB SSA Report - February 2019 geographic and ecological patterns (Figure ES-1). The Southern Plains analysis areas include the Red River, Arkansas River, and Flint Hills analysis areas. The Northern Plains analysis areas include the Loess Canyons, Sandhills, and Niobrara River analysis areas and the New England Analysis Area includes Block Island off the coast of Rhode Island, and a reintroduced population on Nantucket Island off the coast of Massachusetts. This is the scale of “populations” referred to in the analysis of risk factors potentially affecting the species (Chapters 4 and 5). Figure ES-1. American Burying Beetle Species Status Assessment seven analysis areas. This SSA is a qualitative assessment of the relative condition of the seven analysis areas based on the knowledge and expertise of species experts, as well as all available published and unpublished information. Our analysis of the past, current, and future influences on ABB long term viability revealed that there are two known factors that pose the largest risk to the future viability of the species. These risks factors are primarily habitat impacts due to land use and effects related to climate change. Other important factors (such as the availability of appropriate sized carrion for reproduction, or soil moisture) are all dependent on, or affected by, the habitat loss or alteration related to land use and climate. ES-2 ABB SSA Report - February 2019 We have forecasted ABB resiliency, redundancy, and representation under two future plausible land use change scenarios and under two different climate change emission scenarios through 2099. Land use scenarios were evaluated separately and then combined with climate scenarios. The scenarios included the following assumptions about stressors to the populations: Land Use Change Scenarios Scenario 1: Continued Current Rate of Land Change and High Management/Protection • Urban expansion rate of 10% for northern and southern plains analysis areas and 20% for the New England Analysis Area. • A 5% increase in conversion from grassland/pasture to cropland for Northern Plains analysis areas. • A 2% increase in conversion from grassland/pasture to cropland for Southern Plains analysis areas. • Management of all existing protected lands is assumed to continue. Some limited areas of protected lands may be added or expanded. • A potential 30% reduction in conditional habitat in the Southern Plains analysis areas to reflect temporary agricultural impacts like high utilization of vegetation via grazing or mowing for hay. Scenario 1 Results (without climate changes) – Agricultural land uses and urban expansion are predicted to have some impacts to ABB habitat and populations over time, but the impacts affect a relatively small percentage of the analysis areas. Relative to current conditions, there are no changes anticipated in condition categories for future habitat, population factors, resiliency or viability under scenario 1 for land use changes alone (Table 5-9). Resilient populations would potentially be present through 2099 in all analysis areas except the Red River Analysis Area. The existing trend for the Red River Analysis Area has been a relatively rapid decline in the last ten years with only 9 positive surveys in the last 10 years and only 7 positive surveys in the last five years. The redundancy provided by the Red River Analysis Area currently appears to be very limited and could be discounted for the future. ABBs are likely to be extirpated from the Red River Analysis Area in future years, but the population decline does not appear to be due to land use changes. Scenario 2 : Accelerated Rate of Land Change, Low Management • Urban expansion rate of 20% for Northern and Southern Plains analysis areas and 30% for the New England Analysis Area. • A 30% increase in conversion from grassland/pasture to cropland for Northern Plains analysis areas. • A 5% increase in conversion from grassland/pasture to cropland for Southern Plains analysis areas. ES-3 ABB SSA Report - February 2019 • No specific management for ABBs and no new protected lands. • A potential 60% reduction in conditional habitat in the southern plains analysis areas to reflect temporary agricultural impacts like high utilization of vegetation via grazing or mowing for hay. Scenario 2 Results (without climate changes) – Agricultural land uses and urban expansion are predicted to have impacts to ABB habitat and populations over time, but the impacts affect a relatively small percentage of the analysis areas. There are minor changes anticipated in condition categories for future habitat, population factors, resiliency or viability under scenario 2 for land use changes alone (Table 5-9). Resilient populations would potentially be present through 2099 in all analysis areas except the Red River, Loess Canyons and New England analysis areas. The resiliency of the New England Analysis Area is considered low under scenario 2 without active management. Future Climate Scenarios The projections of climate change in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (documents issued in 2013 and 2014) were based on four scenarios developed by teams of scientists a few years earlier. These scenarios, known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, were designed to span the range of values in the scientific literature, from low to intermediate to high, for “radiative forcing” (RF) as of 2100 and the different pathways by which various RF conditions might be reached. RF relates to atmospheric conditions which are the result in part, but not entirely, of emissions of greenhouse gases; with increasing RF, global temperature rises and other changes in climate occur. The RCPs are widely used throughout the scientific community for modeling a broad range of possible future climate conditions. In our analysis of potential climate change impacts to the ABB, we utilized two of those scenarios, RCP 4.5 and 8.5, over different blocks of time through the end of this century. RCP 4.5 is at the low end of the intermediate range of conditions and represents a situation under which key atmospheric conditions would stabilize at a relatively moderate level shortly after 2100, RCP 8.5 is the high end of such conditions. For ease of reference we refer to these as “Emissions Scenarios” although they are not based solely on emissions of greenhouse gases. Our approach of using the two RCPs is consistent with the current widespread scientific
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