Deal Drivers: Americas Q1 2021
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Deal Drivers: Americas Q1 2021 A spotlight on mergers and acquisitions trends in 2021 Contents Foreword 03 Outlook 04 Summary 05 Canada 08 Western US 12 Midwestern US 16 Southern US 20 Northeastern US 24 Brazil 28 Latin America & the Caribbean (excl. Brazil) 32 About this report 36 2 Foreword: North-South divide underpinning uneven recovery After a challenging year that saw deal activity freeze through The US has led the way, with deal value more than H1 2020 as the outbreak of COVID-19 forced countries into doubling year-on-year in Q1 2021 to reach US$658.73bn. lockdowns, the M&A market in the Americas has reset and The conclusion of the US presidential election and the recovered, posting steady deal numbers through Q1 2021. inauguration of Joe Biden have given capital markets Aggregate deal value for the region reached US$658.73bn more certainty. The country has also benefited from a mass from 1,961 transactions announced in Q1 2021, up from roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines, with almost 100m people in US$236.77bn from 1,918 deals in the same period last year. the US fully vaccinated through the early months of this year. Outside of North America, deal markets in Brazil and But while the headline gains in M&A elsewhere in Latin America have also seen improvement activity offer reasons for optimism in in Q1 2021, but the rebound hasn’t been as pronounced. the deal community, the recovery has The outlook for the rest of the year is also less certain, with been noticeably uneven. a second wave of COVID-19 infections hitting Brazil and its neighbors, prompting another round of containment measures. This has impacted economic growth forecasts The M&A rebound has been more pronounced in North and is likely to color M&A activity in South America through America, where dealmakers in the US and Canada have the rest of 2021. benefited from a bounce in stock markets and reduced numbers of COVID-19 cases. The uneven nature of the M&A recovery that has characterized the Americas over the first quarter of this year is more than likely to remain a defining theme for the region in the coming months. 3 Heat chart based on potential companies for sale Outlook: Americas heat chart Canada US Western US Midwestern Southern US Northeastern US Brazil Latin America & the Caribbean TOTAL Financial services 24 322 199 359 463 37 15 1,419 According to our forward-looking heat chart, which illustrates the distribution of ‘companies for sale’ stories on the TMT 34 347 119 191 293 45 18 1,047 Mergermarket intelligence tool, financial services is the sector in which dealmakers should expect to see the most Pharma, medical & biotech 24 176 102 171 222 23 1 719 activity in the Americas. In Q1, the intelligence tool logged 1,419 stories about financial services companies coming to Industrials & chemicals 11 110 94 136 130 11 2 494 market in the Americas, representing almost 30% of the 5,015 stories overall. After financial services, technology, media and 7 90 39 138 106 22 7 409 telecoms (TMT) logged the second-most ‘for sale’ stories with Business services 1,047 (21%), followed at some distance by pharma, medical & Consumer 12 79 52 70 92 29 13 347 biotech (PMB) with 719 (14%). 21 37 16 38 30 30 12 184 The heat chart is dominated by the US, with other economies Energy, mining & utilities much more tepid by comparison. Combined, the four US regions accounted for 4,549 ‘for sale’ stories, or more than Leisure 1 33 9 34 29 7 3 116 90% of the total. Several key sectors, from financial services to industrials & chemicals (I&C), are indicating red-hot Transportation 4 12 11 35 13 10 2 87 activity in the US, especially in the Northeast of the country. That region, home to the New York market, contributed 463 Real estate 4 22 9 22 17 5 3 82 financial services stories, almost one-third of all such stories Construction across the Americas. In the Western US region, TMT stories 5 4 12 9 14 44 Cold Warm Hot are flourishing, accounting for 347 of the 1,047 total such stories from the Americas. Agriculture 8 10 5 2 4 4 3 36 Note: The Intelligence Heat Charts are based on ‘companies for sale’ tracked by Mergermarket in the Defense 8 5 14 4 31 respective regions between October 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021. Opportunities are captured according to the dominant geography and sector TOTAL 150 1,251 664 1,222 1,412 237 79 5,015 Source:of the Mergermarket potential target company. 4 Summary: A tale of two continents Despite the diverging macroeconomic performance across Paving the way to recovery Americas M&A activity, the region, M&A activity for the Americas as a whole was Dealmaking in the US has been supported by a recovering 2018-Q1 2021 strong in Q1 2021, reflecting the ongoing release of pent-up economy, a bullish outlook for GDP growth, and rising stock demand among dealmakers to deploy capital and bring deals markets. Morgan Stanley has estimated US growth of 8.1% that had been delayed through much of the pandemic period for Q1 2021, with the economy expected to recover to pre- 2,500 700 back to market. pandemic levels by Q2. 600 M&A deal value for the Americas surged from 1,918 deals 2,000 worth US$236.77bn in Q1 2020 to 1,961 deals valued at A decline in COVID-19 infections, tied to a US$658.73bn in Q1 2021, the largest quarterly value for the successful vaccination program, has boosted 500 region on record in the last three years. the recovery, as has significant economic US$(bn) value Deal 1,500 stimulus in the form of a US$1.9tn spending 400 The US market drove the deal uptick, with all the regions in the country delivering strong growth in deal value. Overall, US deal plan led by the new Biden administration. Deal volume Deal 300 value was up from US$213.3bn in Q1 last year to US$562bn in 1,000 Q1 2021. US stock markets have responded positively, with the Dow Jones Industrial Index and S&P 500 cresting all-time highs in Q1 200 and showing gains of 10.26% and 9.9% respectively for the year 500 to date through early April. 100 Canadian dealmakers have also benefited from recovering GDP 0 0 figures and buoyant stock markets. Canada saw deal volumes Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 and values jump from 144 deals worth US$13.3bn in Q1 2020 2018 2019 2020 2021 to 181 deals worth US$56.93bn in Q1 2021. Deal volume Deal value US$(bn) Source: Mergermarket 5 Bucking virus tumult Americas top sectors by value I Q1 2021 In Brazil and Latin American, deal activity has also US$(m) increased through Q1 2020, despite ongoing disruption TMT 206,103 from COVID-19—vaccination rates in the region have Industrials & chemicals 100,828 lagged behind North America and case numbers continue Financial services 99,456 to surge. This has taken a toll on stock market sentiment Pharma, medical & biotech 54,692 in Latin America, with the S&P Latin America 40 down 6% Transportation 48,443 for the year. This same sentiment may yet extend to M&A through 2021. Americas top sectors by volume I Q1 2021 But to start the year, activity was strong as M&A markets Deal count reopened. In Brazil, deal volume and aggregate value TMT 548 climbed to 112 deals valued at US$21.7bn in Q1, up from Industrials & chemicals 300 87 deals worth US$4.9bn in Q1 2020. For Latin America & Business services 257 the Caribbean (excl. Brazil), deal volumes over the same Pharma, medical & biotech 239 Financial services 170 comparative period dipped from 78 deals to 48 deals, but deal value showed a more than three-fold increase, rising from US$5.3bn in Q1 2020 to more than US$18bn in Q1 of Americas top bidders by value I Q1 2021 this year. US$(m) USA 460,806 Concerning sectors, TMT, I&C, and financial services Canada 81,095 were the dominant industries in terms of deal flow. TMT Ireland (Republic) 46,679 deals accounted for more than one-quarter (548) of all Brazil 14,749 transactions announced in Q1 (1,961) in the Americas, and Japan 10,350 almost one-third of the aggregate value (US$206.1bn). I&C came in a distant second, with the aggregate value for Americas top bidders by volume I Q1 2021 the 300 industrials deals totaling US$100.8bn. Financial services delivered deal value of US$99.5bn, but from only Deal count 170 transactions. USA 1,451 Canada 158 Brazil 83 United Kingdom 54 France 21 6 Irish outlier in domestic crowd Americas top 10 announced deals, Q1 2021 In terms of inbound bidder activity, the US, Canada, and Brazil delivered the highest volumes, implying a focus on domestic Announced Status* Bidder company Target company Sector Vendor company Deal value and intraregional transactions. One outlier was the Republic of date (US$m) Ireland, which was the third-most active inbound bidder with 1 10-Mar-21 P AerCap Holdings N.V. GE Capital Aviation Financial General Electric Company 31,000 total deal value of US$46.67bn. Services LLC services 2 21-Mar-21 P Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd Kansas City Southern Transportation 28,643 This was a result of the involvement of an Irish bidder in the largest Americas deals of the year, which saw AerCap Holdings 3 15-Mar-21 P Rogers Communications Inc.