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Analysis of the Short-Turning Strategy on High-Frequency Transit Lines Gordon T. Coor

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Analysis of the Short-Turning Strategy on High-Frequency Transit Lines Gordon T. Coor Analysis of the Short-Turning Strategy on High-Frequency Transit Lines by Gordon T. Coor B.A. Environment, Technology, and Society Clark University, 1988 SUBMITTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL AND ENVIROMENTAL ENGINEERING IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN TRANSPORTATION AT THE MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY FEBRUARY 1997 © 1997 Massachusetts Institute of Technology All rights reserved Signature of Author: - Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering October 23, 1996 Certified by: %F ... -- Nigel H. M. Wilson Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering S Thesis Supervisor Accepted by: Joseph M. Sussman Chairman, Departmental Committee on Graduate Studies GF TECHiNOL '' ; JAN 2 9 1997 L1BRAFiiES Analysis of the Short-Turning Strategy on High-Frequency Transit Lines by Gordon T. Coor Submitted to the department of Civil and Environmental Engineering on October 23, 1996 in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Transportation Abstract Short-turning is a real-time control intervention in which a transit vehicle is removed from service at some point short of its destination and returned to service in the opposite direction. By skipping a section of its route in this way, the transit vehicle can recover lost time and fill a gap in service. In this thesis, a model is developed to simulate short-turning on a rail transit line with high-frequency service. In this model train dwell times, and hence headways, vary as a function of total passenger boardings and alightings. Passenger loads are dependent on vehicle headways. Inputs to this model include passenger arrival rates and passenger alighting proportions for each station on the line, average interstation running times, and initial sequences of train headways. Headways departing the terminal which is skipped when a train is short-turned are randomly generated. The principal output of the model is the change in total passenger waiting time for the system from short-turning. This model was set up to simulate short-turning at the outer end of the Blue Line of the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority. The analysis focused on short-turning in the a.m. peak period. The random generation of headways departing the skipped terminal was verified by comparing generated sequences of vehicles with records of actual train sequences. Short-turns in which the short-turned train overtakes 0, 1, and 2 trains were simulated. In addition, a version of the model was tested in which the short-turning train was given slightly longer interstation running times. An additional effort to validate the model was then made by manually analyzing individual runs of the model. This analysis suggested several modifications to the simulation to make it more realistic. Additional trials were run with this modified simulation. The sets of simulation results from the base, 'slow train', and modified model were combined to prepare manual guidelines for short-turning. Alternative short-turn performance measures besides total passenger waiting time were also considered. Finally, a number of documented short-turns on the Blue Line were analyzed in an effort to understand actual short-turning practice on the line. This research concluded that many of the short-turns currently made on the Blue Line are likely to increase, rather than decrease, total passenger waiting time and that short-turns are only likely to be beneficial in fairly severe delay incidents. Short-turning is apparently being used to compensate for insufficient allowed round-trip running time. The results of this research and previous work on short-turning were combined to reach a set of general conclusions about short-turning. In addition, the possibility of developing a decision support system based on some of this research for a central supervision center was explored. Thesis Supervisor: Nigel H. M. Wilson Title: Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering Acknowledgments There are a large number of people whom I need to thank for their assistance, guidance, and most importantly, patience. First and foremost, my wife Carol has supported and encouraged me in more ways than I can enumerate. She also endured a far longer separation than I had ever promised while she started a new career in New York and I worked to finish my degree here at MIT. Professor Nigel Wilson has been my research advisor since I started at MIT. He has amiably provided the guidance, motivation, and reassurance I needed to see this often frustrating project through to conclusion. I have come to respect and admire Nigel for the high standards he has both for himself and for his students, his skill as a researcher, and his dedication both to education and to the field of urban transit. Ann Herzenberg of the MBTA has been crucial in providing both the original motivation for this project and the information I needed to complete it. In addition, she arranged to have three MBTA field supervisors help me collect data at State Station over three evenings. Mike Mulhern, Mike Francis, and Mark McNeil, also all went out of their way to help me with various aspects of my research. I must also thank the numerous dispatchers, train starters, inspectors, and others out on the line who welcomed me into their workplace shared their insights with me. Dr. Charles Robinson, my math and programming tutor helped me get past countless programming problems. More importantly, Charles always insisted that I remain focused on the objective of each part of my model and take a "top-down" approach to every phase of its development. Professor Alvin Drake graciously offered advice to me on how to analyze and randomly generate several input variables. I must also thank my instructors and colleagues in the CTS program, including Jiang Chang, Xu Jun Eberlein, Dale Lewis, Jeff Sriver, Nicola Shaw, and many others, for help, advice, and friendship during my studies at MIT. Finally, my father and stepmother generously let me stay at their home for well over a year. I can't thank them enough for their hospitality and encouragement. Table of Contents Abstract ........ ..................................................... ............................................. ....................3 Acknowledgm ents ............................... ..... ................................................ ............................... Table of Contents..................................................................................... .. .............. 7 List o FgTaures ..................................................... 10 List of Tables ........................................................................................................................... 11 Chapter 1 Introduction 13 1.1 Characteristics of High-Frequency Transit Lines. .......................................................... 14 1.2 M otivaton . .. .................................................................................................................. 17 1.3 Introduction to the Short-Turning Problem ........ ........................................................ 18 1.4 Prior Research ................................................................................................................... 19 1.5 Thesis Outline .................. ........................................................................................ 23 Chapter 2 General Model Development 26 2.1 M odeling O bjectives .......................................................................................................... 26 2.2 M odel Structure ................................................................................. ....................... 27 2.3 M odel Assum ptions and G eneralizations .......................................................................... 29 2.4 M odel Inputs ................................................................................................................ 36 2.5 M odel Structure ................................................................................................................. 39 2.5.1 Representation of Trains and Platforms ................................................... 39 2.5.2 Representation of System Operation................................................ 41 2.5.2.1 Regular Dwells ......................................................... ............................................... 43 2.5.2.2 Special Types of Dwell for Short-Turns ...................................................................... 49 2.6 M odel Outputs ............................................................................................................ 51 2.7 M odel Lim itations .................................................. .......................................................... 53 Chapter 3 Simulation and Analysis 55 3.1 Blue Line Characteristics ................................................................................................... 55 3.1.1 System Characteristics ............................................................................ .................... 55 3.1.2 Real-Time Control Practice........................................... .............................................. 64 3.1.3 Passenger Demand Characteristics ..................................... ........................ 67 3.2 Sim ulation Developm ent ...................................................................................... .... 68 3.2.1 W estbound Headways......................................................................................................
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