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It Spot Issue [ Spot❘2016-06 ] 2016 ICT Spot Issue Ⅰ. 브렉시트 선언과 ICT산업 영향 Ⅱ. 스마트폰 카메라의 진화, 3D카메라 <CP Issue> IMS2016을 통해 살펴보는 전파기술의 최신 동향 목 차 ICT SPOT ISSUE 2016-06 Ⅰ. 브렉시트 선언과 ICT산업 영향 ································· 1 1. Brexit 발표 후 경제 지표 변화 ································································· 2 2. 미국 금융위기 사례를 통한 Brexit 영향 검토 ··········································· 5 3. Brexit의 ICT산업 파급효과 ········································································· 6 4. 정책적 시사점 ··························································································· 11 Ⅱ. 스마트폰 카메라의 진화, 3D카메라 ························ 12 1. 3D로 진화하는 스마트폰 카메라 ··························································· 13 2. 스마트폰용 3D 카메라 기술 개요 및 개발 동향 ···································· 15 3. 맺음말 ······································································································· 23 <CP Issue> IMS2016을 통해 살펴보는 전파기술의 최신 동향 1. IMS2016 개요 ························································································ 26 2. 이동전화: 탄생과 소멸 ············································································· 31 3. mm-Wave: 미래로 연결되는 관문 ·························································· 35 4. GaN: 고전력 반도체 혁신 ······································································ 41 5. 패러다임 이동: SW기반 플랫폼 ······························································· 47 6. 시사점과 제언 ··························································································· 49 Institute for Information & communications Technology Promotion ICT Spot Issue ❙ 2016-06 Ⅰ. Brexit 선언과 ICT산업 영향 IITP - KISDI 공동 작성 IITP 이승민 책임 / KISDI 나성현 실장 1. Brexit 발표 후 경제 지표 변화 2. 미국 금융위기 사례를 통한 Brexit 영향검토 3. Brexit의 ICT산업 파급효과 4. 정책적 시사점 ICT Spot Issue Institute for Information & communications Technology Promotion ICT SPOT ISSUE Ⅰ. Brexit 선언과 ICT산업 영향 1 Brexit 발표 후 경제 지표 변화 o Brexit 발표 이후 일주일 만에 국제 금융시장은 안정세 회복 ○ 국제 금융시장은 주가 급락 등 우려가 제기 되었으나, 각 국 정책 당국의 빠른 대응으로 대체로 Breixt(6월 24일) 이전 수준을 회복 [그림 I-1] 주요 국제 금융시장 증시 추이 자료: S&P Capital, 2016.6. ○ 반면, 환율은 원화, 위안화는 이전 수준으로 복귀했으나, 엔화, 달러 가치는 상승하 였고, 파운드 및 유로화는 가치 하락세가 지속 [그림 I-2] Brexit 전후의 주요국가 환율 변화 자료: 한국은행, 외환은행, 2016.7. 2 ICT SPOT ISSUE Ⅰ. Brexit 선언과 ICT산업 영향 o 영국의 경우, 재투표, 분리 독립 요구 등이 표출되고 브렉소더스(Breixt + Exodus, 브렉시트 후 기업 탈출)에 따른 불확실성이 증가 ○ 금융을 중심으로 한 외국계 기업은 물론, 보다폰 등 영국 기업들마저 본사 이전을 검토하고 있는 것으로 알려짐 ※ Economist는 EU 탈퇴시, 금융시장 위축 등에 따라 영국의 실질GDP 6% 감소를 전망(´20년 기준) o Brexit로 회복세를 보이던 EU 경제의 위축, 세계 경제 성장률 하향 조정 예상 ○ 주요 전망 기관들은 유로존 1% 내외, 미국과 일본 0.5% 내외, 세계 경제 0.2% 내외의 부정적 영향을 예상 <표 I-1> Brexit 이후 세계 및 주요 국가별 경제 성장률 조정 지역 전망기관 전망 지역 전망기관 전망 미즈호종합 IMF 3.2%(‘16.4월 전망) 0.3~0.8%p 감소 일본 연구소 세계 모건스탠리 2.7~2.8%(3%에서 하향) 모건스탠리 0.34~1.11%p 감소(‘18년) 골드만삭스 올해 3.1%(3.2%에서 하향) OECD 1.1%p 감소(2018년) 0.4%p (1년간) 미국 도이치방크 유로존 올해 1.5%(2.0%에서 1.5%p 감소(3년간) 골드만삭스 하향조정) 자료: 국제무역연구원 재인용 ○ IMF에 따르면, Brexit 충격은 영국과 금융, 무역연계가 높은 EU 국가(아일랜드, 네덜란드 등)를 중심으로 영향이 집중될 전망 ※ Brexit로 인해 ‘18년 EU 국가는 0.2∼0.5%p 하락, 여타 국가는 0∼0.2%p 경제성장률 하락 예상되며, 아일랜드, 네덜란드, 벨기에는 최대 규모의 경제적 손실 발생 예상(IMF) ‒ EU 주변국은 0.2~0.5% 하락이 예상되는 반면, 영국과의 교류 비중이 높지 않은 여타 국가(한국 포함)의 경제적 영향은 0~0.2% 수준 예상 [그림 I-3] 주요 지역/권역별 ‘18년 경제 성장 영향 분석 자료: IMF, 2016. 6 3 ICT SPOT ISSUE Ⅰ. Brexit 선언과 ICT산업 영향 2 미국 금융위기 사례를 통한 Brexit 영향 검토 o 미국 금융위기 이후 ICT 저성장, G2 영향력 확대 등 ICT 경쟁환경이 변화 ○ (단기) 미국 금융위기는 실물경제로 전이되면서 국제 교역 등이 큰 폭으로 감소 ‒ 미국은 국내 ICT수출의 13.2%, 주요 기업 매출은 18.5%를 차지했으며, 리만사태로 인해 ‘09년 세계 ICT 교역 및 국내 수출은 각각 15.0%, 7.8% 감소 ‒ 특히 월간 ICT수출은 두 자릿수 이하로 크게 급감하는 등 실물경제의 상당한 충격 발생 ※ 월별 ICT수출 증감률(%) : (‘08.9월) 9.2 → (10월) -8.5 → (11월) -32.6 → (12월) -39.2 [그림 I-4] 미국의 ICT 매출·수출 비중과 금융위기 이후 경제 지표(‘09) 변화 < ‘09년 주요기업 매출/ ICT수출 지역별 비중 > < 주요 경제 지표 성장률(’09년) > 자료: S&P Capital, 한국은행, UN Comtrade 등, 주) 삼성전자, LG전자, SK하이닉스, LG디스플레이 ○ (장기) 세계 ICT 교역은 본격적인 저성장 국면에 진입하였고, G2 영향력이 확대 ‒ 미국 금융위기 쇼크는 유럽 재정위기, 미국, 유럽 등 보호무역주의 강화 등으로 세계 ICT 교역은 1% 대의 저성장 ※ 세계 ICT교역 증가율(UNComtrade, %) : (‘03～’08) 12.1 → (‘09) -15.0 → (’10~‘15) 1.5 ‒ 반도체, 디스플레이 패널 등 주력 품목은 세계 시장 침체 및 둔화 [그림 I-5] 미국 금융위기 이후 5년간 경제 지표 및 ICT 주요 품목 세계 시장 연평균성장률 세계시장 성장률 품목 비고 ‘03～’07 ⇨ ‘10～’15 ICT전체 8.8 ⇨ 1.3 반도체 10.2 ⇨ 2.2 저성장 디스플레이 32.0 ⇨ -4.3 SW 6.3 ⇨ 4.5 ‘16~’20년 스마트폰 - ⇨ 29.5 1.8%성장 < 주요 경제지표 연평균증감률(‘10~’15)> < 주요 품목 세계시장 성장률 비교 > 자료: S&P Capital, 2016.6. 4 ICT SPOT ISSUE Ⅰ. Brexit 선언과 ICT산업 영향 ‒ 세계적인 ICT저성장, 보호 무역 강화 등으로 거대 내수 시장 및 막대한 자본을 보유하고 있는 G2의 ICT시장 지배력이 강화되는 등 ICT 경쟁이 환경 변화 ※ G2의 세계 ICT 매출 점유율 (S&P Capital, %) : (‘10) 34.6 → (’15) 44.1 [그림 I-6] 세계 ICT 성장률 추이 및 세계 ICT기업 매출 비교 글로벌 ICT 13,659개 기준 < 세계 ICT성장률 > < 세계 ICT 매출 비교(G2 vs G2 이외) > 자료: Gartner, S&P Capital, 2016. o 미국 금융위기로 세계 ICT시장은 ‘08~’12년 연평균2.6%p 감소 효과 발생 ○ (세계 ICT) 금융위기로 인해 ‘09년 –4.8% 감소, ’08~‘12년 1.9%의 저성장에 진입했으며, ‒ 금융위기 이전인 ‘08.3분기에 전망한 세계 ICT시장(’08~‘12년)을 전망치와 현시점 ’16.3분기 에서 바라본 세계 ICT시장(‘08~’12년) 규모 간 2.6%의 간격 발생 ○ (국내 ICT수출) ‘09년 -7.8% 감소, ’08~’12년 4%대 성장 기록 ‒ ‘08~’12년 국내 ICT수출은 세계 ICT교역에 비해 선전했으나, 미국 금융위기 전후의 5년을 비교하면 ‘03~’07년 14.4%에서 ‘08~’12년 4.3%로 10.1%p 하락 ※ 세계 ICT 성장률(Gartner) : (‘03~’07년) 8.8% → (‘08~’12) 1.9% ※ 국내 ICT 수출 증가율(IITP) : (‘03~’07년) 14.4% → (‘08~’12) 4.3% ※ 세계 ICT 교역(UN Comtrade) : (‘03~’07년) 14.0% → (‘08~’12) 2.5% <표 I-2> 미국 금융위기 ICT영향 분석 단기(’08~‘09년) 장기(‘08~’12년) 구분 예상* 실제 비고 예상* 실제 비고 세계 ICT시장 5.2% -4.8% -10.1%p 4.5% 1.9% -2.6%p 국내 ICT수출 - -7.8% - - 4.3% (참고) 세계ICT교역 - -15.0% - - 2.5% - 자료: UN Comtrade, IITP, 2016. 5 ICT SPOT ISSUE Ⅰ. Brexit 선언과 ICT산업 영향 3 Brexit의 ICT산업 파급 효과 o (세계 ICT) HW보다는 SW 및 서비스 분야에 Brexit 여파가 집중될 전망 ○ (SW) 영국은 금융 및 서비스업이 발달한 국가로 세계 SW 시장에서 미국에 이은 세계 2위 시장 ※ ’16년 국가별 SW 시장규모(억불, Gartner) : (미국) 5,645억불, (영국) 1,123억불, (일본) 1,121억 불, (독일) 543억불, (프랑스) 403억불, (캐나다) 307억불 순 ‒ 영국 SW시장은 미국, 영국계 업체가 장악하고 있어 이들 업체를 중심으로 부정적 영향이 예상 ※ ‘15년 영국 시장 SW 매출 상위 기업 : Capita(영, 54.8억불) IBM(미, 51.6억불), MS(미, 37.5억불), HP(미, 32.7억불), BT(영, 31.1억불), 액센츄어(미, 29억불), 타타(인도, 28.0억불), 기타(삼성 SDS (2.4억불, 영국 내 0.2% 비중, 유럽본사가 영국에 위치)) 등 ○ (HW) 영국 HW 시장은 세계 시장에서 3.9% 수준으로 높지 않고, ITA 협정 무관세적용, 2년 유예기간 존재 등으로 국제 ICT 교역에 제한적 영향이 전망 ※ 영국의 세계 시장 비중(Gartner) : (SW) 9.0%, (HW) 3.9%, (서비스) 3.2% ※ 영국이 EU탈퇴가 확정될 경우 ITA 회원국 자격을 상실하나, 무난한 재가입이 예상 o (국내 ICT) 영국과 직접 거래관계에 있는 ICT HW 수출 부문의 영향 예상 ○ Brexit는 영국과의 직접적 거래관계(對영수출, 투자) 및 글로벌 시장을 매개(환율 변동, 경기둔화)로 우리나라 ICT 산업에 영향을 미칠 수 있음 <표 I-3> 2015년 주요 지역별/품목별 수출액 반도체 휴대폰 디스플레이 전체 지역 금액 증감률 금액 증감률 금액 증감률 금액 증감률 5.4 2.0 0.1 11.4 영국 (47.4)* 8.9 (17.5) △36.4 (0.9) △32.0 [0.7]** △18.1 15.8 12.1 17.8 101.5 EU (15.6) △10.9 (11.9) △47.1 (17.5) △44.1 [5.9] △23.8 405.7 117.5 247.7 939.8 중국 (43.2) 5.4 (12.5) 37.2 (26.4) △2.4 [54.4] 3.8 33.1 66.2 1.8 164.6 미국 (20.1) 14.8 (40.2) △11.5 (1.1) 6.8 [9.5] △2.6 일본 17.6 △6.9 11.2 △27.7 1.1 △36.5 51.5 △16.7 (34.2) (21.7) (2.1) [3.0] 28.7 43.6 12.3 120.2 베트남 (23.9) 2.9 (36.3) 85.2 (10.2) 173.6 [7.0] 40.0 자료: IITP, 2016. * ( )안은 각 품목이 국가별 수출에서 차지하는 비중, ** [ ]안은 각 국가가 전체 수출에서 차지하는 비중 6 ICT SPOT ISSUE Ⅰ. Brexit 선언과 ICT산업 영향 ○ Brexit의 영향이 가시화 될 경우, 그 영향은 ICT HW 수출에서 집중될 전망 ※ 경기둔화 등 세계 경제 여건의 변화는 SW, 콘텐츠 등에도 영향을 미칠 것이나, 수출비중, 소비에 있어서의 대체 가능성 등을 고려할 때 그 영향이 제조업만큼 크지는 않을 것 ‒ 또한, 전체 ICT 수출에서 영국이 차지하는 비중은 0.7%인 반면, 중국은 54.4%의 비중을 차지하고 있는 만큼 중국 관련 이슈에 주목할 필요가 있음 ‒ EU는 중국의 최대 교역국으로 EU 경기 불확실성 증대는 중국 경제에 부정적 영향을 어느 정도 미칠 것으로 예상되나, ‘위안화 약세 - 對미수출 증가’ 등으로 그 영향이 상쇄될 전망(대외경제정책연구원) ※ 2015년 기준 중국의 對 EU수출은 중국 총수출의 15.6%, 수입은 12.5% 차지 【참고】 Brexit (6.24일) 전 후 ICT수출 동향 ○ 1일기준 ICT수출은 6~7억불 수출 등 평소와 같은 흐름을 이어가고 있고, 영국 및 EU 지역 수출도 1일 기준 전년 동기대비 증가 회복 등 영향 없음 < ICT 전체 일별수출액> < 對EU ICT 일별 수출액> < 對영국 ICT 일별 수출액> (1) 단기적 영향 : 對영수출‧투자, 환율 변동 ○ (對영수출) 영국으로의 수출 비중(0.7%)이 높지 않음에 따라, 영국 경제의 성장둔화가 ICT 수출에 미치는 영향은 제한적 ‒ `15년 기준, 對영 ICT 수출은 11.4억 달러로 전체 ICT 수출액 1,728.7억 달러의 0.7% 수준 ※ `15년 기준 對EU ICT 수출은 101.5억 달러로 전체 ICT 수출의 5.9% 수준 ○ Brexit의 여파는 단기적으로는 영국에 한정적으로 발생할 가능성이 높고, 주로 휴대폰, TV 등 완제품을 중심으로 수출 감소 이슈 발생 가능성이 존재 ‒ 주요 수출 품목 중 반도체, 디스플레이 패널은 부품 산업 특성 상 유럽과 연관성이 낮고, 휴대폰은 보조금 제도, 임대 요금제 등으로 수요 하락이 제한적일 전망 7 ICT SPOT ISSUE Ⅰ.
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