DOCSLIB.ORG

From the Red River to the Gulf of Tonkin : Dynamics and Sediment Transport Along the Estuary-Coastal Area Continnum Violaine Piton

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
From the Red River to the Gulf of Tonkin : Dynamics and Sediment Transport Along the Estuary-Coastal Area Continnum Violaine Piton From the Red River to the Gulf of Tonkin : dynamics and sediment transport along the estuary-coastal area continnum Violaine Piton To cite this version: Violaine Piton. From the Red River to the Gulf of Tonkin : dynamics and sediment transport along the estuary-coastal area continnum. Oceanography. Université Paul Sabatier - Toulouse III, 2019. English. NNT : 2019TOU30235. tel-02957680 HAL Id: tel-02957680 https://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-02957680 Submitted on 5 Oct 2020 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. THÈSETHÈSE En vue de l’obtention du DOCTORAT DE L’UNIVERSITÉ DE TOULOUSE Délivré par : l’Université Toulouse 3 Paul Sabatier (UT3 Paul Sabatier) Présentée et soutenue le 16/12/2019 par : Violaine Piton Du Fleuve Rouge au Golfe du Tonkin: dynamique et transport sédimentaire le long du continuum estuaire-zone côtière JURY ISABELLE BRENON LIENSs Rapportrice SABINE CHARMASSON IRSN Rapportrice ALDO SOTTOLICHIO EPOC Rapporteur ROBERT LAFITE M2C Examinateur ROMARIC VERNEY IFREMER Examinateur JEAN-MICHEL MARTINEZ GET Examinateur CATHERINE JEANDEL LEGOS Présidente du Jury SYLVAIN OUILLON LEGOS, IRD Directeur de thèse MARINE HERRMANN LEGOS, IRD Co-Directrice de thèse École doctorale et spécialité : SDU2E : Océan, Atmosphère, Climat Unité de Recherche : Laboratoire d’études en géophysique et océanographie spatiales (UMR5566) Directeur(s) de Thèse : Marine Herrmann et Sylvain Ouillon Rapporteurs : Isabelle Brenon, Sabine Charmasson et Aldo Sottolichio 2 Remerciements Je tiens tout d’abord à chaleureusement remercier mon directeur de thèse, Sylvain Ouillon, pour avoir partagé avec moi sa passion et son savoir sur les petites particules qui se baladent dans l’eau, pendant 3 ans. Merci de m’avoir fait confiance pour cette thèse au tout début, merci de m’avoir permi de réaliser les campagnes dans la Van Uc, merci d’avoir sorti l’ADCP des herbes folles en pleine nuit, merci pour ton expérience avec les campagnes de mesures, pour ta connaissance sans faille des processus estuariens et enfin merci pour tes précieux conseils, tes orientations et encour- agements tout au long de ce travail. Promis, maintenant je vais lire ton livre! Je remercie également très fort ma co-directrice de thèse, Marine Herrmann, qui même à distance a su m’orienter et me conseiller dans ce travail de recherche. Merci pour ton engouement pour la recherche et pour ta motivation communicative, merci aussi pour ton soutien lors de mes séjours à l’USTH, merci d’avoir fait en sorte que les campagnes de terrain se réalisent, et désolée de t’y avoir traîné toute une nuit froide. Merci pour les explorations by night de la charmante bourgade de Qingdao et celles à vélo de Perth et ses petits quokkas. Et merci pour ta sympathie, tes super blagues et ta cape de pluie! Cette thèse, et surtout son aspect modélisation, n’auraient bien sûr pas été possi- bles sans le soutien de mon co-co-directeur de thèse, Patrick Marsaleix. Merci beaucoup pour ton aide dévouée lors de la mise en place du modèle et les heures passées à la bidouille des rivières. Merci de m’avoir passionné pour la modélisation et m’en avoir montré les possibilités infinies. Merci pour toutes tes idées lumineuses, pour les améliorations qui n’en finissent plus d’améliorer, pour les “cherries on top” et pour avoir été présent et enthousiaste à chaque étape. Cette thèse est le fruit de nombreuses collaborations intra et inter laboratoires. Tout d’abord, un merci particulier à Florent Lyard qui a tenté de m’initier aux joies de la modélisation spectrale de la marée. et merci à Damien Allain d’avoir mis à jour POCViP quand j’en avais besoin. Many thanks to Vu Duy Vinh (from IMER) for your help organizing and performing the Van Uc surveys. Thank you for you knowledge of the region, for your precious network and for your help with the i ii instruments set ups. Thanks also for spending time negotiating with the local police, for the sleep- less nights and for the big Xoi Ga feasts after each survey! Un grand grand merci à la team du L.A.. A Thomas, pour ton aide précieuse tout au long du travail de modélisation (et surtout à la fin!), pour ta gentillesse, tes conseils et pour ta ténacité à trouver pourquoi “ça bug”. Merci beaucoup à Guillaume qui a trouvé le temps, et passer beaucoup d’heures (!), à m’aider à comprendre les trucs et astuces du module sédimentaire. Merci aussi à Cyril pour avoir toujours pris le temps de répondre à mes questions sur le serveur. Et un merci infini à Gaël pour ton aide sur le traitement des données ADCP,pour les pauses café, pour les kinder buenos et pour ta passion flocculation. Les campagnes de terrain n’auraient pas été possibles (ni supportables) sans un équipage de choc. Un grand merci à Gaëlou Orban de Xivry (initialement embauché en tant que garde du corps) et Pablo Lipchitz, pour avoir accepté d’embarquer avoir moi sur ces missions. Merci pour vos mains abîmées par les cordes, pour avoir supporté les dizaines de piqûres de moustiques, pour avoir enduré mes alarmes toutes les 2 heures, pour avoir survécu aux 45°C, puis aux 5°C et aux nuits sur la tôle de pont, pour vos précieux muscles et pour les réparations in extremis. Merci aussi d’avoir fait office de rideau de douche, de m’avoir épargné de manger les ovaires du poisson, d’avoir essayer de relâcher le canard qu’on allait égorger pour le dîner, d’avoir admirer les couchers de soleil avec moi alors que “we don’t care we have other things to do”,pour les bains dans la rivière déchaînée, pour les soirées dans les bia hoi d’Haiphong, pour les discussions philosophiques et pour nos déambulations dans les rizières. et tant d’autres! Merci surtout pour votre soutien alors qu’il n’était parfois pas facile d’être une femme sur un bateau d’hommes, et pour votre bonne humeur indéfectible malgré la pénibilité et le peu d’heures de sommeil. Merci à Jean-Michel Bore pour sa dextérité au maniement du drone et pour le film qui nous a rendu star d’un jour et qui nous fait à tous un super souvenir! Une thèse au LEGOS ne serait rien sans la team des doctorants et précaires (et pas que!). Merci tout d’abord au bureau des potins et du thé, avec en tête d’affiche: Alice, pour toutes les heures passées à se plaindre et à se plaindre, et à ressasser le passé, et à se plaindre encore, mais aussi à faires des papiers cadeaux pour du pâté, à boire des pints qui donnent une angine et à manger des kilos de hummus. Et à Manon ensuite, pour nous avoir écouté nous plaindre et nous plaindre, pour les ragots et les cartes cadeaux, pour ton sourire, pour ton soutien et pour ta bonne humeur! Merci à tous les autres BFF pour les repas du midi et les goûters (trop rares) du mercredi: Emilie (pour ton alcoolisme et les 7 étapes du deuil), Simon Bej. (pour les ragots et les rollerblades), Antoine (pour tes boucles d’or, Hakim et le Jumpy), Cori (pour toutes tes histoires dans leur grande totalité), iii Lise (pour tes poèmes), Kevin (pour ta sagesse), Michel (pour tes remarques déplacées), Marine B. (pour tes blagues et ton dévouement au poste de représentante des doctorants), Simon Bar. (pour ton actuel dévouement au poste de représentant des doctorants et pour tes cheveux bien sur), Audrey (pour ton stress communicatif), Sakaros (pour ton smile), Mesmin (pour ton amour pour Maître . ), Guillaume et Marine R. (pour l’histoire de votre rencontre), et les ptits nouveaux Marion, Manon, Romain, Viet et Tung: la relève! Merci à ma co-bureau wachita rica Inés pour ces 3 années de rires (beaucoup), de pleures (encore plus), pour la déco colorée de notre bureau et les goûters surprises. Merci à Ngoc pour nos partages de chambre en conférence, pour les bun cha les midis à Hanoi et pour les ragots sans fin quand tu nous rends visite au labo. Une thèse au LEGOS ne serait pas non plus possible sans l’équipe redoutable du GESSEC: Martine, Nadine, Brigitte et Agathe. Merci à vous 4 pour votre efficacité, votre disponibilité, votre soutien, votre bonne humeur quotidienne et pour les papotages dans les couloirs. Et merci aussi à Nadia (cheffe d’équipe Ecola) pour ton soutien et ta gentillesse, toujours. Cette thèse m’a aussi permis de découvrir Toulouse et ses autochtones. Merci à mon gang des Filles qui Riz: Léa, Chachou, Paupiette et Andréa pour les (trop?) nombreux verres de rouge et gin to, les vogues menthe, les restos trop chers, les “on boit juste un verre, je bosse demain”, la Mandarine, le Concorde, les week ends en camping 4 étoiles, les histoires de Léa, les bouffes de grosses, les virés en Touran, les drames et les fous rires. Merci à (tous) mes colocs, avec dans l’ordre d’apparition: Elisa (pour l’Afwique, la joie, Voyage voyage), Chloé et Julien (pour votre duo de DJs incontournables), Diego (pour ta cuisine), Astrid (pour ton accent et ton sourire communicatif surtout quand tu es bourrrrrée), Simon (pour ta gentillesse et ta propreté, c’est important!), Annie (pour tes gros mots en français), Océane (pas pour ta propreté en tous cas) et Clémence (pour ta musique douteuse).
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Questioning the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution
    Questioning the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution The Plan As the 1964 presidential elections approached, President Johnson (Democrat) saw the need for a congressional resolution that would endorse the growing US involvement in Vietnam. Such a resolution would strengthen the president’s credibility, and would make him look tough on Communism at a time when his challenger Republican Barry Goldwater was criticizing LBJ for being soft. Accordingly, LBJ decided to wait for North Vietnamese provocation before sending his request to Congress. However, it is VERY significant that both the request was written prior to any provoking incident, as well as plans to attack North Vietnam. The Incident According to LBJ According to the public announcements of President Lyndon Johnson and Defense Secretary Robert McNamara, twice in two days the North Vietnamese had attacked U.S. warships “on routine patrol in international waters,” and engaged in a “deliberate” pattern of “naked aggression”; evidence of both attacks was “unequivocal,” and these had been unprovoked.” According to Johnson and McNamara, the United States would respond in order to deter future attacks but was planning no wider war. The Request This lesson invites students to travel back to August 1964 and to imagine that they were members of Congress when the Johnson administration proposed the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution. It asks them to practice critical thinking. Divide into groups and imagine that you are members of Congress when this resolution was introduced in 1964. Your assignment is to come up with at least 5 critical questions that you would have wanted fully answered before you voted on the resolution.
    [Show full text]
  • Appendix 8: Damages Caused by Natural Disasters
    Building Disaster and Climate Resilient Cities in ASEAN Draft Finnal Report APPENDIX 8: DAMAGES CAUSED BY NATURAL DISASTERS A8.1 Flood & Typhoon Table A8.1.1 Record of Flood & Typhoon (Cambodia) Place Date Damage Cambodia Flood Aug 1999 The flash floods, triggered by torrential rains during the first week of August, caused significant damage in the provinces of Sihanoukville, Koh Kong and Kam Pot. As of 10 August, four people were killed, some 8,000 people were left homeless, and 200 meters of railroads were washed away. More than 12,000 hectares of rice paddies were flooded in Kam Pot province alone. Floods Nov 1999 Continued torrential rains during October and early November caused flash floods and affected five southern provinces: Takeo, Kandal, Kampong Speu, Phnom Penh Municipality and Pursat. The report indicates that the floods affected 21,334 families and around 9,900 ha of rice field. IFRC's situation report dated 9 November stated that 3,561 houses are damaged/destroyed. So far, there has been no report of casualties. Flood Aug 2000 The second floods has caused serious damages on provinces in the North, the East and the South, especially in Takeo Province. Three provinces along Mekong River (Stung Treng, Kratie and Kompong Cham) and Municipality of Phnom Penh have declared the state of emergency. 121,000 families have been affected, more than 170 people were killed, and some $10 million in rice crops has been destroyed. Immediate needs include food, shelter, and the repair or replacement of homes, household items, and sanitation facilities as water levels in the Delta continue to fall.
    [Show full text]
  • The US Media's Propaganda During the Gulf of Tonkin Incident
    Student Publications Student Scholarship Spring 2020 “Reds Driven Off”: the US Media’s Propaganda During the Gulf of Tonkin Incident Steven M. Landry Gettysburg College Follow this and additional works at: https://cupola.gettysburg.edu/student_scholarship Part of the Journalism Studies Commons, and the United States History Commons Share feedback about the accessibility of this item. Recommended Citation Landry, Steven M., "“Reds Driven Off”: the US Media’s Propaganda During the Gulf of Tonkin Incident" (2020). Student Publications. 787. https://cupola.gettysburg.edu/student_scholarship/787 This open access student research paper is brought to you by The Cupola: Scholarship at Gettysburg College. It has been accepted for inclusion by an authorized administrator of The Cupola. For more information, please contact [email protected]. “Reds Driven Off”: the US Media’s Propaganda During the Gulf of Tonkin Incident Abstract In 2008, the Annenburg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania conducted a poll to determine just how informed voters were following that year’s presidential election. One of the most shocking things they found was that 46.4% of those polled still believed that Saddam Hussein played a role in the terrorist attacks on the US on September 11th, 2001. No evidence had ever emerged linking him to it after 5 years of war in Iraq, but that did not matter, as “voters, once deceived, tend to stay that way despite all evidence.” Botched initial reporting can permanently entrench false information into the public’s mind and influence them ot come to faulty conclusions as a result. This power of first impressions gives journalists an immense and solemn responsibility when conveying events.
    [Show full text]
  • China Versus Vietnam: an Analysis of the Competing Claims in the South China Sea Raul (Pete) Pedrozo
    A CNA Occasional Paper China versus Vietnam: An Analysis of the Competing Claims in the South China Sea Raul (Pete) Pedrozo With a Foreword by CNA Senior Fellow Michael McDevitt August 2014 Unlimited distribution Distribution unlimited. for public release This document contains the best opinion of the authors at the time of issue. It does not necessarily represent the opinion of the sponsor. Cover Photo: South China Sea Claims and Agreements. Source: U.S. Department of Defense’s Annual Report on China to Congress, 2012. Distribution Distribution unlimited. Specific authority contracting number: E13PC00009. Copyright © 2014 CNA This work was created in the performance of Contract Number 2013-9114. Any copyright in this work is subject to the Government's Unlimited Rights license as defined in FAR 52-227.14. The reproduction of this work for commercial purposes is strictly prohibited. Nongovernmental users may copy and distribute this document in any medium, either commercially or noncommercially, provided that this copyright notice is reproduced in all copies. Nongovernmental users may not use technical measures to obstruct or control the reading or further copying of the copies they make or distribute. Nongovernmental users may not accept compensation of any manner in exchange for copies. All other rights reserved. This project was made possible by a generous grant from the Smith Richardson Foundation Approved by: August 2014 Ken E. Gause, Director International Affairs Group Center for Strategic Studies Copyright © 2014 CNA FOREWORD This legal analysis was commissioned as part of a project entitled, “U.S. policy options in the South China Sea.” The objective in asking experienced U.S international lawyers, such as Captain Raul “Pete” Pedrozo, USN, Judge Advocate Corps (ret.),1 the author of this analysis, is to provide U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • Tourism Sector in the Greater Mekong Subregion
    Evaluation Study Reference Number: SAP: REG 2008-58 Sector Assistance Program Evaluation December 2008 Tourism Sector in the Greater Mekong Subregion Operations Evaluation Department ABBREVIATIONS ADB – Asian Development Bank ASEAN – Association of Southeast Asian Nations CBT – community-based tourism GDP – gross domestic product GMS – Greater Mekong Subregion GMS-SF – Greater Mekong Subregion Strategic Framework GZAR – Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region Lao PDR – Lao People’s Democratic Republic MTCO – Mekong Tourism Coordination Office MTDP – Mekong Tourism Development Project NTO – national tourism organization PRC – People’s Republic of China RCAPE – regional cooperation assistance program evaluation RCSP – Regional Cooperation Strategy and Program RTSS – regional tourism sector strategy SAPE – sector assistance program evaluation TA – technical assistance TWG – Tourism Working Group UNESCAP – United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific UNESCO – United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization UNWTO – United Nations World Tourism Organization NOTE In this report, “$” refers to US dollars. Key Words adb, asian development bank, cambodia, development effectiveness, greater mekong subregion, guangxi zhuang autonomous region, infrastructure, lao people’s democratic republic, people’s republic of china, laos, myanmar, performance evaluation, tourism, tourism development, thailand, tourism marketing, viet nam, yunnan province Director General H. S. Rao, Operations Evaluation Department (OED) Director H. Hettige, Operations Evaluation Division 2, OED Team leader M. Gatti, Senior Evaluation Specialist, Operations Evaluation Division 2, OED Team members F. De Guzman, Evaluation Officer, Operations Evaluation Division 2, OED C. Roldan, Senior Operations Evaluation Assistant, Operations Evaluation Division 2, OED I. Garganta, Operations Evaluation Assistant, Operations Evaluation Division 2, OED Operations Evaluation Department, SE-13 CONTENTS Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY i MAP x I.
    [Show full text]
  • Territorial Issues in Asia Drivers, Instruments, Ways Forward
    7th Berlin Conference on Asian Security (BCAS) Territorial Issues in Asia Drivers, Instruments, Ways Forward Berlin, July 1-2, 2013 A conference jointly organised by Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), Berlin and Konrad-Adenauer -Stiftung (KAS), Berlin Discussion Paper Do Not Cite or Quote without Author’s Permission Session II: Resources (Energy, Fishing) and Maritime Law Dr. Stein Tønnesson Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) Do the Sino-Vietnamese Tonkin Gulf agreements show ways forward in the South China Sea? Abstract The Sino-Vietnamese maritime boundary agreement and fishery agreement for the Tonkin Gulf, which were both signed in 2000, point out several ways by which regional states may move forward towards resolving the maritime disputes in the South China Sea. First, by the way they were negotiated; second, by their use of international law; third, by their application of a median line adjusted for equity; fourth, by the weight attributed to small islands; fifth, by accommodating established fishing interests; sixth, by facilitating joint development of hydrocarbon and mineral resources; and seventh, by establishing a boundary between Hainan and the Vietnamese coast that may be prolonged into the central part of the South China Sea. This paper discusses how each of these points may be followed up, primarily but not only by China and Vietnam. This is part of a larger argument to the effect that the South China Sea disputes are not as impossible to resolve as often assumed. At present, it seems that the most promising venue for further constructive steps with regard to the South China Sea is the on-going bilateral negotiations between China and Vietnam.
    [Show full text]
  • A P-Vector Module for Z-Coordinate
    A P-Vector Module for z-Coordinate The P-Vector module for z-coordinate was developed to compute absolute velocity from hydrographic data. This package is stored in the enclosed DVD- Rom and includes the makefile, source codes, plotting files (using Matlab), and a sample case. The sample case is located at a subdirectory called sample.dir. The test data set is the WOA climatological (T,S) fields for the North Atlantic Ocean. The gird resolution is set to be 1◦ × 1◦ with 50 vertical levels (i.e., nx = 360,ny = 180,nz = 50). The users may change for their own sakes. Chenwu Fan and Carlos Lozano helped in developing these codes. A.1 Makefile ********************************************************** SRC = whoi.f pvector.f pv.f pvpar.f userinp.f setmask.f matopen.f matclose.f matotal.f matout.f OBJS= $(SRC:.f=.o) FFLAGS= -g pvexe: $(OBJS) f77 $(FFLAGS) -o pvexe $(OBJS) pvector.o: pstate.h pvector.f f77 $(FFLAGS) -c pvector.f pv.o: pstate.h pv.f f77 $(FFLAGS) -c pv.f userinp.o: pstate.h userinp.f f77 $(FFLAGS) -c userinp.f whoi.o: whoi.f f77 -g -c whoi.f pvpar.o: pstate.h pvpar.f f77 -g -c pvpar.f setmask.o: setmask.f 432 A P-Vector Module for z-Coordinate f77 -g -c setmask.f matopen.o: matopen.f f77 -g -c matopen.f matclose.o: matclose.f f77 -g -c matclose.f matotal.o: matotal.f f77 -g -c matotal.f matout.o: pstate.h matout.f f77 $(FFLAGS) -c matout.f A.2 Main Subdirectories There are three major directories (pvector, pvector nc and pvector rotation) of the enclosed DVD-Rom for computing the absolute velocity in z-coordinate system.
    [Show full text]
  • Typhoon Initialization in a Mesoscale Model — Combination of the Bogused Vortex and the Dropwindsonde Data in DOTSTAR
    Typhoon Initialization in a Mesoscale Model — Combination of the Bogused Vortex and the Dropwindsonde Data in DOTSTAR Kun-Hsuan Chou and Chun-Chieh Wu Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan Submitted to Monthly Weather Review (Revised on April 23, 2007) ___________________ Corresponding author address: Dr. Chun-Chieh Wu, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, No. 1, Sec. 4, Roosevelt Rd., Taipei 106, Taiwan. ([email protected]) Abstract Issues on the initialization and simulation of tropical cyclones by integrating both the dropwindsonde data and the bogused vortex into a mesoscale model have been studied. A method is proposed to combine the dropwindsonde data with the bogused vortex for the tropical cyclone initialization and to improve the track and intensity prediction. Clear positive impact of this proposed method on both the tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts in a mesoscale model is demonstrated in three cases of typhoons, Meari (2004), Conson (2004) and Megi (2004). The effectiveness of the proposed method in improving the track and intensity forecasts are also demonstrated in the evaluation of all 10 cases of DOTSTAR (Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region) missions in 2004. This method provides a useful and practical means to improve the operational tropical cyclones prediction with the dropwindsonde observations. 1 1 Introduction Over the past 30 years, persistent and steady progress on the track forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) have been well demonstrated through the improvement of the numerical models, the data assimilation and bogusing systems, the targeted observations, and the satellite and dropwindsonde data available to the forecast systems (Wu et al.
    [Show full text]
  • Typhoon Initialization in a Mesoscale Model—Combination of the Bogused Vortex and the Dropwindsonde Data in DOTSTAR
    MARCH 2008 CHOU AND WU 865 Typhoon Initialization in a Mesoscale Model—Combination of the Bogused Vortex and the Dropwindsonde Data in DOTSTAR KUN-HSUAN CHOU AND CHUN-CHIEH WU Department of Atmospheric Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan (Manuscript received 12 January 2007, in final form 30 May 2007) ABSTRACT Issues concerning the initialization and simulation of tropical cyclones by integrating both dropwindsonde data and a bogused vortex into a mesoscale model have been studied. A method is proposed to combine dropwindsonde data with a bogused vortex for tropical cyclone initialization and to improve track and intensity prediction. A clear positive impact of this proposed method on both the tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts in a mesoscale model is demonstrated in three cases of typhoons, including Meari (2004), Conson (2004), and Megi (2004). The effectiveness of the proposed method in improving the track and intensity forecasts is also demonstrated in the evaluation of all 10 cases of Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR) missions in 2004. This method provides a useful and practical means to improve operational tropical cyclone prediction with dropwindsonde obser- vations. 1. Introduction been sparse, the uncertainty and poor quality in initial conditions can lead to monumental errors in the nu- Over the past 30 yr, persistent and steady progress on merical simulation and prediction of TCs. For example, the track forecasts of tropical cyclones (TCs) has been Kurihara et al. (1995) have shown that a better predic- well demonstrated through the improvement of nu- tion could be achieved by the use of improved initial- merical models, data assimilation and bogusing sys- ization procedures that better represent the initial en- tems, targeted observations, and satellite and drop- vironment, as well as the vortex-scale, flow, and mass windsonde data available to the forecast systems (Wu fields.
    [Show full text]
  • Annual Weather Review 2010 ______
    Annual Weather Review 2010 ____________________________________________________________________________ Review of Weather Conditions in 2010 Northeast Monsoon Season (Jan – March) 2010 started off with a mild Northeast Monsoon, with rainfall well below average for the first two months of the year. Not only was the 2009/2010 Northeast Monsoon unusual in not bringing the monsoon surges typical of the rainy season1, the period also saw the occurrence of Sumatra squalls on three almost consecutive days on 4, 6 and 7 January 2010. Sumatra squalls are associated with deep southwesterly winds and are uncommon during the Northeast Monsoon, during which the prevailing winds are predominantly from the opposite direction. The dry phase2 of the Northeast Monsoon set in during late January 2010 and extended to March 2010. The dry conditions usually experienced during this period are due to the strong cross equatorial flow induced by the migration of the monsoon rain belt far south of the equator away from Singapore. The absence of sufficient moisture coupled with the presence of strong divergent wind flow at the 700-850 hPa levels, impeded convective activity and suppressed rainfall during this period. In February 2010, the coincident passage of a dry phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) and a moderate El-Niño over the maritime continent further exacerbated the dry conditions over Singapore and the surrounding region. As a result, February 2010 was the driest February for Singapore since rainfall records began in 1869, with only 6.3 mm of rainfall recorded at the climate station. Moreover, the dry phase of the Northeast Monsoon in 2010 had only 5 rain days and registered a total rainfall of merely 9.8 mm.
    [Show full text]
  • Maritime Issues in the East and South China Seas
    Maritime Issues in the East and South China Seas Summary of a Conference Held January 12–13, 2016 Volume Editors: Rafiq Dossani, Scott Warren Harold Contributing Authors: Michael S. Chase, Chun-i Chen, Tetsuo Kotani, Cheng-yi Lin, Chunhao Lou, Mira Rapp-Hooper, Yann-huei Song, Joanna Yu Taylor C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/CF358 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2016 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover image: Detailed look at Eastern China and Taiwan (Anton Balazh/Fotolia). Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface Disputes over land features and maritime zones in the East China Sea and South China Sea have been growing in prominence over the past decade and could lead to serious conflict among the claimant countries.
    [Show full text]
  • Exonyms of Vietnam's Vinh Bac Bo (Gulf of Tonkin)
    Exonyms of Vietnam's Vinh Bac Bo (Gulf of Tonkin) POKOLY Béla* The presentation is exploring the various exonyms of this south-east Asian gulf, including some historical allonyms. Tonkin is the traditional historical name in most foreign languages for the northern part of Vietnam. Both the local Vietnamese and Chinese names for the feature mean in essence the same thing: “north bay”, even though it lies at the southern part of China. This commonly used meaning also helps co-operation and understanding in a region that saw so much suffering in the 20th century. The Gulf of Tonkin as is known in the English language, is a north-western portion of the South China Sea with an approximate area of 126,000 square kilometres. Its extent is larger than the Gulfs of Bothnia and Finland combined, it is a much more open sea area, with Vietnam (763 km) and China (695 km) sharing its coastlines. Bordered by the northern part of Vietnam, China's southern coast of Guangxi Autonomous Region, Leizhou Peninsula and Hainan Island, it is outside the disputed maritime area further out in the South China Sea. The local names for the feature are Vinh Bac Bo in Vietnamese and 北部湾 (Pinyin Beibu Wan) in Chinese. (Fig.1) The toponym gained worldwide attention in 1964 when the controversial Gulf of Tonkin Incident marked the starting point of the escalation of the Vietnam War. The paper does not wish to deal with this event, but tries to present some aspects of the exonyms and local names of this marine feature over time.
    [Show full text]