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Vc;26 O No2 0 1996 RICA ) 0 1 0 2 d e t a d ( r e h s i l b u P e h t y b d e t n a r g e c n e c i l r e d vc;26 n u y a w e t a G t e o n i b no2 a S y b d e c u 0 d o r 1996 p e R ISSN 02562804 © Copyright reserved Africa Insight (incorporating the AI Bulletin) is published quarterly by the Africa Institute of South Africa, an independent study centre concerned with African affairs. The Institute does not necessarily subscribe to the opinions of contributors. For information about the Institute, membership and subscription rates see inside back cover. Contributions and subscriptions should be sent to:· The Editor Box 630 ) 0 PRETORIA, South Africa 1 0 0001 2 Telephone: 27 + 12 + 3286970 Telefax: 27 + 12 + 323 8153 d e e-mail: [email protected] t a d ( Council r e h Mr J L Potloane (Chairman), prof C R M Diamini, Mr B Khumalo, prof T Lodge, s i l prof E T Mokgokong, Dr S Moodley-Moore, Dr C J Scheffer, Ms N C Tisani, b u Mr R S K Tucker and Prof M Wiechers P e h Advisory Panel on Publications t y Fellows b d Dr Adebayo Adedeji, Prof Sam Asante, Dr Louis Emmerij, Prof Denis Fair, Amb e t Ahmed Haggag, Prof Goran Hyden, Amb Bethuel Kiplagat, Dr Erich Leistner n a (resident), Amb Edouard Maunick, Dr Thandika Mkandawire, Mr Olara Otunnu, Dr r g Sadig Rasheed, Mr Douglas Rimmer and Prof Richard Sklar e c n e Research Fellows c i l Prof Fred Ahwireng-Obeng, Dr' Daniel Bach, prof Willie Breytenbach, Prof Patrick r e Chabal, Prof Fantu Cheru, prof Christopher Clapham, Dr Christian Coulon, Prof Sam d n Decalo, Prof Andre du Pisani, Dr Stephen Ellis, Prof Richard Haines, Prof Jeffrey u Herbst, Mr Arnold Hughes, Prof Edmond Keller, Prof Guy Martin, Prof Gavin y a Maasdorp, Prof Colin McCarthy, Dr John Makumbe, Dr Massimo Micarelli, Mr Patrick w e Ncube, Prof Wilfred Ndongko, prof Georges Nzongola-Ntalaja, Prof Kings Phiri, Prof t a Louis Picard, Dr Oliver Saasa, Prof Peter Vale and Prof Margaret Vogt G t e Senior Staff n i b Editor: Madeline Lass Executive Director Dr Denis Venter a S Cartographer: Elize van As Administration and Finance Mr Barnie Fisher y b Cover by William Steyn Communications Mr Kenneth Kotelo d Layout by Al Graphics Current Affairs Mr Richard Cornwell e c Printed by The Rustica Press Publications Mr Pieter Esterhuysen u d o r p e I R AFRICA vol 26 0 no 2 0 199 6 an independent publication which promotes insight into the process of change in Africa Contents Lost prophets Comment 90 Richard Cornwell The challenges of analysing and building civil society 92 Professor Goran Hyden A foreign policy to die for: 107 South Africa's response to the Nigerian crisis Maxi van Aardt Ghana's return to constitutional rule 120 Dr Joseph R A Ayee Occupational health and safety in Swaziland 130 Dr 0 M Akinnusi Attracting foreign investment to Africa: 140 The South African case ) 0 Professor J Marx and Professor J Hough 1 0 2 Poverty among blacks in the Vaal Triangle 146 d e t Measured in terms of income indicators a d T J C S/abbert, J 0 van Wyk, M Levin and W Coetzee ( r e East African tourist trends 156 h s i l Professor Denis Fair b u P Regional security in sub-Saharan Africa 162 e h Dr Denis Venter t y b The Subia and Fwe of Caprivi 177 d e Any historical grounds lor a status 01 primus inter pares? t n Professor Chris Maritz a r g e Africa focus 186 c n Richard Cornwell e c i l r Africa in transItion to democracy 188 e d Pieter Esterhuysen n u y Bookshelf and Book review: State building and demo­ 194 a cracy in Southern Africa: Botswana, Zimbabwe and w e t South Africa by Pierre du T oit a G t Africa Institute news/Africa studies news 197 e n i Dr Denis Venter b a S y b d e c u d o r p e R J Lost prophets common popular perception is labour and is not conducive to the growth Richard Cornwell that South Africa has the poten­ of the informal sector. Head of Current Affairs tial to become a rich, industrial­ A further inhibiting factor is the gen­ ized, developed country, com­ eral lack of investor confidence arising at the Africa Institute aparable to the affluent economies of the from uncertainty about future government of South Africa northern hemisphere. Brief acquaintance policy. This hesitancy partly reflects the with' the major cities, their striking sky­ generally disappointing, if not disastrous, lines and the suburban shopping malls experience of outside investors in Africa and mansions cherished by a small class following the optimism engendered by of conspicuous consumers lend a spuri­ the end of colonial rule in the 1960s.With ous credibility to this picture. ample investment opportunities available By African standards certainly, the in the Far East, Eastern Europe and else­ country has reached a high level of eco­ where in the world, South Africa will nomic development. Its GNP is more than come under close scrutiny before it re­ three times that of the other eleven mem­ ceives substantial inflows of private capi­ bers of the Southern African Development tal. Of course, inflows of capital, though Community (SAD C) put together, is three they may be a necessary condition are not times larger than that of Nigeria, and twen­ of themselves a sufficient condition of ty times larger than that of Zimbabwe. economic growth as conventionally mea­ In the global context, however, it is sured, let alone of development. a middle-ranking, semi-industrialized eco­ The volatility of the money markets nomy. Its GNP is only one-third that of the that has now propelled the government ) Netherlands, and 6% that of Germany. In into issuing its new macroeconomic blue­ 0 1 addition, and most importantly, it has one print in itself demonstrates the unprece­ 0 2 of the most skewed patterns of income dented mobility of capital, not to mention d e distribution in the world. Some 51% of an­ the overriding importance of sentiment, t a nual income goes to the richest 10% of rumour and anticipated profit or loss d ( households; less than 4% of annual income which drive the market. r e goes to the poorest 40% of households. To some degree the new economic h s The gap between the rich and poor policy marks South Africa's adoption 'of a i l b in South Africa is a wide one. More signif­ self-imposed structural adjustment pro­ u icantly, it has tended historically to corre­ gramme. The government obviously hopes P e late closely with the racial classifications that apart from making the proper obei­ h t until recently imposed by white-dominat­ sance to the idols of the free market, it y ed governments on the national popula­ may also preserve the notion that South b d tion. This has provided much of the dy­ Africa's government retains control or e t namic of South African politics in the past, ownership of the development path to be n a and attempts to redress these imbalances followed, rather than eventually accepting r g and create a more equitable society will a similar package imposed by global fi­ e c continue to provide the leitmotif of the po­ nancial institutions. n e litical economy for the foreseeable future. What remains to be seen is whether c i According to many well-informed South Africa proves any more successful l r foreign observers, South Africa has the than other African states at avoiding a slide e d potential for striking economic success into more authoritarian political practices n u over the next two decades and beyond, during the adjustment phase, with all the y though the realization of this potential is distress that this implies for the poorer sec­ a tions of the society. w by no means guaranteed. As the World e t Bank noted recently, South Africa must Of course, this may be a matter of a cope with a number of obstacles in its small concern to the free-market funda­ G t quest for faster growth in output and em­ mentalists among the local business and e n banking sectors. Indeed, judging from i ployment. Its production structure is high­ b ly capital-intensive and inward looking; it some of the comment emanating from a S has a largely untrained and under-edu­ those quarters, one is entitled to wonder y b cated labour force; and its urban struc­ whether big business objected to the old d ture inhibits the productivity of unskilled apartheid system because this was cruel e c u d o r p e R ~o AFRICA INSIGHT VOL 26 No 2 1996 and inequitable, or because it was labour to object to the implementa­ further to ask whether the development simply economically wasteful and in­ tion of such programmes. Addressing trajectory of the wealthy nations will efficient. When one looks at the racial inequalities in terms of remu­ prove viable for them, even in the me­ labour practices tolerated in certain neration and responsibility in the clium run. The triumphalism of the free­ countries now the cynosure of foreign workplace will also have an initial im­ marketeers following the collapse of investment managers, one also won­ pact upon productivity levels.
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