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Nepal 2017 1951 Ends Thecivilwar 1951 1951 End of the Rana dynasty and restoration of the monarchy. 1959 New constitution establishes parliamentary democracy. 1960 First elected government falls in a coup d’état by partisans of the king. 1990 Popular movement forces the king to restore democracy and reform the constitution. 1996 Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) launches armed insurgency over long-held grievances. More than 12,000 die and 200,000 are displaced in 10-year civil war that follows. 2001 Ten royal family members are massacred in their palace, allegedly by Prince Dipendra. 2005 King Gyanendra declares himself absolute ruler and cuts off Nepal from the outside world. The king relents after a year of growing demonstrations. 2006 Comprehensive Peace Accord with Maoists ends the civil war. 2007 Mass protests and violence by Madhesi parties—the Madhesh Andolan—erupt in the Terai over long-term discrimination and 2008 exclusion. Churches attacked and priest murdered in eastern Nepal in growing Hindu-Christian 2007 violence. Church bombing in Kathmandu Muslim mosques and shops looted in Dang kills three and injures 14 in 2009. as Hindu-Muslim violence resurges. 2008 The monarchy is abolished. 2008 The first Constituent Assembly is elected, but cannot agree on a new constitution, leading to years of escalating protests and strikes. 2013 Violent clashes between the ruling coalition and the opposition lead to a caretaker government. Second Constituent Assembly 2015 elected in November. Two major earthquakes cause widespread devastation. 2015 New constitution is rapidly adopted following quakes. Forty-five die in violent protests by ethnic and minority groups opposing the document. 2015 Violent blockade of the India-Nepal border by Madhesi parties as conflict escalates in Nepal the Terai. | 2017 Tensions and sporadic violence during local 116 elections, particularly in the Terai. 2017 Nepal At a glance National civil war Communal/ideological conflict Shifted from high to absent Medium low National political conflict Local political and electoral conflict Ebbs and flows between medium Low and high Transnational terrorism Local resource conflict No violence, but terrorist presence High Separatism and autonomy Urban crime and violence Shifted from medium to low Low * Rankings are based on the last 15 years and are relative to other Asian countries. Overview Nepal is characterized by weak governance that has led to ongoing political instability. A civil war killed almost 13,000 and displaced 200,000 between 1996 and 2006. A peace accord has led to much progress since then. The country abolished the monarchy in 2008, carried out two Constituent Assembly elections, in 2008 and 2013, integrated former combatants from the Maoist’s military wing into the Nepal Army, and prom- ulgated a new constitution in 2015. However, with parties and elites often focused on protecting their own interests, political contention is often heated, further cementing divisions, with violence sometimes the result. The continued marginalization of certain ethnic, caste, and regional populations perpetuates grievances that can be mobilized for political violence. Following the promulgation of the new constitution in 2015, violence reemerged in the Terai region between Madhesi groups and parties in Nepali government when a Madhesi-led blockade of the Indo-Nepal border exacerbated the humanitarian crisis and economic stagnation caused by the devastating earthquakes in April and May. With disagreements over the amendments to the 2015 constitution unresolved, political tensions remained high in the lead-up to three tiers of elections in 2017. The country also struggles with growing urban crime and violence in the Kathmandu Valley and pervasive gender-based violence. Nepal | 117 Nepal National level National civil war Nepal endured a civil war from 1996 to 2006 that killed around 13,000 people. The war was launched by the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) in February 1996 with the aim of overthrowing the monarchy and establishing a communist government. Nepal has historically been governed by a series of dynasties. A civil movement in 1951 ended the autocratic rule of the Rana dynasty and restored the monarchy, which then ruled with ad- vice from political parties. A constitution was promulgated in 1959 to establish parliamentary democracy. However, the first elected government, under the leadership of B. P. Koirala, was dismissed after a royal coup in 1960, which led to three decades of absolute monarchy. In the early 1990s, political parties joined hands to launch a successful popular movement for democracy, pressuring the king to restore a multiparty parliament and reform the constitution in 1990–91. Given entrenched grievances, including severe rural poverty, caste and ethnic discrimination, endemic corruption, and the concentration of wealth and power, the dramatic political changes of the early 1990s raised popular expectations of social progress and greater equality. Following the intransigence of other parties towards reform, the CPN (Maoist) submitted a long list of demands to the government on February 4, 1996, addressing a wide range of social, economic, and political issues, and warned that an armed struggle would follow if the demands were not met. One week later, they launched an organized, armed insurgency against the state. During the ensuing years, the Maoist rebels gained significant control over rural areas, while the government retained control of the main cities and towns. Later years saw increasing and effective insurgent attacks on police and military personnel. There were several changes in government over those years. In June 2001, ten members of the royal family were shot to death during a family party at the royal palace, allegedly by Crown Prince Dipendra, who shot himself. The dead included Queen Aishwarya, and King Birendra, who was succeeded by his brother, Gyanendra. In 2005, King Gyanendra declared himself absolute ruler, suppressing the media, restricting civil liberties, and temporarily cutting off communi- cations with the outside world. Dissatisfaction with the monarchy grew rapidly, and following mass demonstrations throughout the country, the king reinstated parliament in April 2006. After a series of negotiations, a Comprehensive Peace Accord (CPA) was signed between the Nepal | 118 CPN (Maoist) and the new democratic government in November 2006, marking the end of the armed conflict.1 Under the Accord, the CPN (Maoist) was allowed to take part in government in exchange for agreeing to lock up its weapons and confine fighters to UN-monitored camps until they could be integrated with the Nepal Army. According to the final report on the Nepal conflict published by the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (UNOHCHR), the government estimates that a total of 12,686 individuals, including government security forces, Maoist rebel fighters, and civilians, were killed between February 1996 and November 2006.2 The Uppsala Conflict Data Program estimates that annual fatalities peaked in 2002 with 4,433 deaths (figure 1).3 Civilians, killed by both government security forces and the Maoist rebels, accounted for around 20 percent of all fatalities over the ten years.4 Up to 200,000 people were displaced by the conflict.5 Human rights violations and abuses by government security forces and the Maoists were widespread. Both sides, but especially government forces, committed unlawful killings, torture, and forced disappearance, as well as rape and other forms of sexual violence.6 National political conflict The political landscape remains volatile in postconflict Nepal. While insurgency-re- lated violence was ended by the signing of the CPA, political protests and clashes occur frequently and at times escalate to low-level violence, often disrupting the economy and people’s mobility. Political conflicts in recent years have centered on the consti- tution, implementation of certain aspects of the CPA, and rivalry between political parties and factions over control of national power. A root cause of the civil war and the current political tensions is the marginalization of certain ethnic, caste, and regional populations. Even though all actors involved in peace negotiations have agreed that a more inclusive state with a federal model is required, they profoundly disagree over the design of that model. The Maoists and other groups representing marginalized popu- lations, including the Madhesi parties from the Terai, have demanded ethnic-based federalism, while traditional political parties such as the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist)—the CPN (UML)—along with right-wing parties have opposed 000 4,433 000 000 2,456 2000 1,731 1,399 1000 569 566 356 298 365 71 40 0 1996 1997 199 1999 2000 2001 2002 200 200 200 2006 Figure 1. Number of fatalities during the people’s war in Nepal (1996–2006) Source: Prepared based on data provided by UCDP7 Nepal | 119 identity-based federalism as undermining national unity, meritocracy, and individual rights.8 Given the extreme diversity of Nepal’s current districts, including those where groups are propos- ing identity-based borders, there are significant disagreements. All sides are promoting federal models that serve their own interests, and limited scope for compromise has been found to date. Between 2007 and 2015, multiple changes of government and large-scale protests took place in the country. The subsequent failure of the first Constituent Assembly (CA), which
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