<<

Hotels driving real estate development in

February 2020 2 | Hotels driving real estate development in Glasgow Hotels driving real estate development in Glasgow | 3

Background

Glasgow is undergoing a significant transformation that is raising the profile of the city and resulting in strong economic growth. The current evolution of the hotel sector

reflects that of the wider Glasgow economy as it establishes

required from Avison Young to reproduce material contained in this report. Avison Young is the trading name of GVA Grimley Limited. ©Avison Young 2019. Young ©Avison Limited. Grimley GVA of name trading the is Young Avison report. this in contained material reproduce to Young Avison from required

itself as a modern, forward thinking city. is permission written prior and reserved are rights property intellectual All report. this of use the and report this to relating conditions and warranties representations, all

this publication or other documents which are referenced by or linked to this report. To the maximum extent permitted by law and without limitation Avison Young excludes excludes Young Avison limitation without and law by permitted extent maximum the To report. this to linked or by referenced are which documents other or publication this

it does not warrant completeness or accuracy. You should not rely on it without seeking professional advice. Avison Young assumes no responsibility for errors or omissions in in omissions or errors for responsibility no assumes Young Avison advice. professional seeking without it on rely not should You accuracy. or completeness warrant not does it

This report has been prepared by Avison Young for general information purposes only. Whilst Avison Young endeavours to ensure that the information in this report is correct correct is report this in information the that ensure to endeavours Young Avison Whilst only. purposes information general for Young Avison by prepared been has report This

Sutherland House, 149 St Vincent Street, Glasgow G2 5NW G2 Glasgow Street, Vincent St 149 House, Sutherland

Young Avison

Glasgow is leading the way on the environment with ambitions and work underway to #evolvingcities

RIVER CLYDE RIVER

become the UK’s first carbon neutral city. Investment in infrastructure and public realm avisonyoung.co.uk is enhancing the city centre as a place to live and work, whilst university-led innovation CRANE FINNIESTON districts, emerging tech and creative sectors are driving local skills and employment, and

economic growth. ARCH CLYDE CITY GLASGOW

To an extent, Glasgow has been playing catch-up in recent years with Edinburgh and CATHEDRAL GLASGOW SEC ARMADILLO AUDITORIUM ARMADILLO SEC

Manchester in being a truly global destination, but the current pace of change and HYDRO SSE growth are making that happen. Hotels have become a core part of the real estate sector; they are important economically and as part of the evolving city place-making. As a result, the hotel and tourism sector is buoyant; following a number of years of

growth and improving market performance, the city has become a hotspot for hotel

0141 305 6311 305 0141

[email protected]

developers, operators and investors. Once difficult to fund “alternative” assets, hotels are age working of are

Development and Land – Associate

population the of

Stephen Robertson Stephen

In the UK outside London outside UK the In a 45 minute commute minute 45 a

are in the service sector service the in are

70% through Central Station Central through

now a core element of the city’s evolution. End West London’s after place

It is the only true Underground railway railway Underground true only the is It within live people

Glasgow in jobs of

0141 305 6335 305 0141

Passengers per year pass pass year per Passengers

Glasgow City Deal by 2035 by Deal City Glasgow

premier retail centres ranked first first ranked centres retail premier

refurbishment of the . Subway. Glasgow the of refurbishment

[email protected] from London from

84%

MILLION

investment delivered by the the by delivered investment

Glasgow is one of the UK’s UK’s the of one is Glasgow

Planning – Associate MILLION

Airport. 324 weekly flights to/ flights weekly 324 Airport.

MILLION

in infrastructure development development infrastructure in Chris Miller Chris

#1

1.2

Glasgow is fortunate in that it has ample room to expand; to the east in Merchant City and Glasgow from daily Flights 29 across the city the across

£300

BILLION 200+

0141 305 6316 305 0141

of full fibre digital Infrastructure Infrastructure digital fibre full of

[email protected]

300km

beyond, and to the west along both the north and south sides of the . There £1.13 Investment – Director

are a number of emerging development and innovation zones across the city, highlighted Wood Douglas

0141 305 6382 305 0141

[email protected]

in Avison Young’s Glasgow Development Map. These new mixed use developments will Space Business - Director

Paul Broad Paul

drive further accommodation demand and requirements for new hotels. 6381 305 0141

[email protected] Glasgow economy and Infrastructure and economy Glasgow Principal and Managing Director for Glasgow for Director Managing and Principal

In 2018 alone, 954 hotel and apart-hotel rooms opened in the city centre and at the Taylor Alison

Scottish Event Campus (SEC). Please get in touch if you would like to receive Contacts a copyRegional Glasgow of the Glasgow Development Map With a further 2,200 plus bedrooms set to open by 2022, we look at how hotels will continue to influence real estate evolution in Glasgow and consider the future growth

potential beyond 2022.

s

City of Glasgow population Glasgow of City

620,000

Evolving Cities colleges world-class three

prestigious universities and and universities prestigious

Scotland’s largest and most most and largest ’s

music events held each week each held events music

Glasgow of three to home is Glasgow second to none, with over 130 130 over with none, to second 3

Glasgow’s music scene is is scene music Glasgow’s AND TOWER AND CENTRE SCIENCE GLASGOW #1

Future Development Map ART MODERN OF GALLERY GLASGOW

RIVER CLYDE RIVER

UNIVERSITY OF GLASGOW OF UNIVERSITY

RIVERSIDE MUSEUM RIVERSIDE

delivered joined up connectivity from north to south, enabling the the enabling south, to north from connectivity up joined delivered

infrastructure and the extension of the M74 motorway has has motorway M74 the of extension the and infrastructure

The £1 billion Glasgow City deal includes investment in improved improved in investment includes deal City Glasgow billion £1 The

world class city. class world the energy revolution that Scotland is embracing. is Scotland that revolution energy the

its growth and reputation as a a as reputation and growth its electric vehicle charging, this building will be leading the way in in way the leading be will building this charging, vehicle electric

the next decade to further enhance enhance further to decade next the date. With advanced cycling facilities and enhanced provision for for provision enhanced and facilities cycling advanced With date.

Glasgow’s rejuvenation continues over over continues rejuvenation Glasgow’s the most sustainable, greenest workspace Glasgow has seen to to seen has Glasgow workspace greenest sustainable, most the

highlighted in this map will ensure that that ensure will map this in highlighted 95,000 sq ft Cadworks on Cadogan Street, which is set to provide provide to set is which Street, Cadogan on Cadworks ft sq 95,000

pipeline of key development opportunities opportunities development key of pipeline FORE Partnership has started construction on the speculative speculative the on construction started has Partnership FORE of life of

inward investment to Scotland’s largest city. The The city. largest Scotland’s to investment inward

best UK Cities for Quality Quality for Cities UK best

Glasgow’s credentials as a major financial services employer. services financial major a as credentials Glasgow’s

and is proving its credentials by attracting new new attracting by credentials its proving is and

Street follows the Barclays deal in 2018, another significant boost to to boost significant another 2018, in deal Barclays the follows Street

Glasgow ranks among the the among ranks Glasgow

Glasgow has a clear vision for growth and regeneration regeneration and growth for vision clear a has Glasgow

JP Morgan Chase’s recent acquisition of 272,800 sq ft in Argyle Argyle in ft sq 272,800 of acquisition recent Chase’s Morgan JP creative centre of the UK the of centre creative

than any other UK city. UK other any than UK average. UK The Glasgow office market continues to attract large occupiers. occupiers. large attract to continues market office Glasgow The OF LIFE OF

degree level or above or level degree

Glasgow named Cultural and and Cultural named Glasgow

provide internet connectivity up to 100 times faster than the the than faster times 100 to up connectivity internet provide

green space per square mile mile square per space green

population is educated to to educated is population world-class business destination. destination. business world-class

2019 will This installed. being is fibre City Gigabit new the of kilometres

more has Glasgow

call Glasgow home. Their presence endorses Glasgow’s status as a a as status Glasgow’s endorses presence Their home. Glasgow call QUALITY QUALITY

of the working age age working the of

continues to keep pace with technological improvements and 15 15 and improvements technological with pace keep to continues

currently studying in the city the in studying currently services, engineering and an impressive range of global brands brands global of range impressive an and engineering services,

#1

Capital of Sport of Capital benefit from a £750 million improvement programme. The city city The programme. improvement million £750 a from benefit 46%

leaders in precision medicine and pharmaceuticals, research research pharmaceuticals, and medicine precision in leaders

Students from 140 countries countries 140 from Students million refurbishment and Queen Street railway station will will station railway Street Queen and refurbishment million

Glasgow will be European European be will Glasgow of the biggest names in global business and finance, international international finance, and business global in names biggest the of

technology infrastructure. The subway system has had a £300 £300 a had has system subway The infrastructure. technology

185,000

largest financial centre and ranks in the top 50 in the world. Some Some world. the in 50 top the in ranks and centre financial largest 2023

Glasgow is continuously investing in its extensive transport and and transport extensive its in investing continuously is Glasgow

Scottish companies) making the city their home. It is the UK’s third third UK’s the is It home. their city the making companies) Scottish

more economically competitive and more attractive generally. generally. attractive more and competitive economically more of sectors and sub-sectors with over 48,000 businesses (28% of of (28% businesses 48,000 over with sub-sectors and sectors of

in 2020, aiming to make the streetscape of the city centre greener, greener, centre city the of streetscape the make to aiming 2020, in Glasgow’s modern, diverse economy has strengths in a variety variety a in strengths has economy diverse modern, Glasgow’s

Construction of the £115million ‘Avenues’ programme will continue continue will programme ‘Avenues’ £115million the of Construction

International Financial Services District and . Harbour. Glasgow and District Services Financial International

and industrial space within a short drive of the city centre. city the of drive short a within space industrial and appearing along the waterfront including Pacific Quay, Quay, Pacific including waterfront the along appearing

Clyde Gateway area to rapidly develop and offer Grade A offices offices A Grade offer and develop rapidly to area Gateway Clyde These links can be evidenced in the growing developments developments growing the in evidenced be can links These

now boasts a thriving modern city centre, which embraces its connection to the River Clyde. Clyde. River the to connection its embraces which centre, city modern thriving a boasts now

education and culture and education the Empire” the city, as we know it today, is almost unrecognisable from its heavy industrial past and and past industrial heavy its from unrecognisable almost is today, it know we as city, the Empire” the

Glasgow has undergone a remarkable transformation over the years. Once known as the “Workshop of of “Workshop the as known Once years. the over transformation remarkable a undergone has Glasgow

s

growth, population, Glasgow Young Avison to Welcome

4 | Hotels driving real estate development in Glasgow

Diverse Demand

Glasgow is a modern and diverse city - socially, culturally and economically. That includes a large COMMERCIAL commercial office sector (with strength in financial and professional services), university-led research Occupational demand for Grade A offices is buoyant and is likely to remain so for at and innovation activities, and creative sector. There is least the next three years. This has been driven by the “regionalisation” of operations a large and well-established conference and events across a number of sectors due to both rents and high cost of living in London. sector and leisure demand is driven by a range of retail, Glasgow is increasingly being viewed as a solid base due to connectivity, relatively low entertainment and sporting facilities. cost of living, vibrant economy and a large and well-educated city region population. All these sectors have grown over the last 10 years as The recently published European Cities and Regions of the Future 2020/21 report by fDi the city has evolved from its post-industrial legacy, with Intelligence ranks Glasgow as the top large city in Europe for foreign direct investment. further strong growth anticipated across all sectors.

THE ECONOMY AND POPULATION Whilst there are a number of new developments underway; According to Experian, the population of Glasgow city has increased 4.5% since 2014 to 626,900. It is projected 77% to increase by a further 1.8% to 638,300 by 2025. of Grade A space under construction is pre-let and there is a significant requirement for additional space moving forward (Glasgow Experian data shows that economic output for the has the lowest grade A vacancy rate of the major regional cities). city has seen healthy growth; gross value added (GVA) increased by 7.1% from 2014 to 2019 to £19.6bn. Glasgow’s GVA growth is projected to accelerate to This coupled with the type of occupier demand (financial and professional services 9.1% to 2025. as well as tech and creative sectors), is very positive for future hotel demand. Ten year average take-up of Grade A space is about 950,000 sq.ft, fourth in the UK behind London, Manchester and Birmingham. Pre-let office developments under construction include: • JP Morgan Chase, 272,800 sq.ft, Argyle Street (this is the fourth largest deal across the “Big Nine” regional UK cities in the last ten years); • 177 Bothwell Street, 305,000 sq.ft (Glasgow’s largest office building and the first in Scotland with a rooftop running track), 90,000 sq.ft pre-let to Clydesdale at a market record rent; +4.5% +7.1% • Atlantic Square, 187,000 sq.ft pre-let to HMRC; since 2011 since 2014 • Buchanan Wharf (mixed use development including the first significant Grade A offices on the south side of the Clyde), 470,000 sq.ft pre-let to Barclays. Population GVA

Source: Avison Young Research | Experian

TOURISM Overnight tourism (leisure and business) data from Visit Scotland shows growth to Glasgow city of 5.4% in +9.1% Tourism overnight stays from 2014 to 2018 (2014 was already 2016 - 2018 Overnight Stays a very strong year due to the major events of that year). Of particular note is that overnight stays from +26% Airport domestic and international visitors increased by an Passengers since 2014 impressive 9.1% in the two years to 2018 (having declined in 2016). This stellar growth is reflective of wider Scotland and UK trends of significant growth in inbound tourism in 2017 and 2018. Even more impressive is the increase in passengers using ; despite fluctuations the overall growth from 2014 to 2018 was 26% according to the Civil Aviation Authority. Hotels driving real estate development in Glasgow | 5

CREATIVE SECTOR

Pacific Quay is the heart of the city’s Creative Clyde project on the Clyde Waterfront. It is home to Scotland’s major media broadcasting companies; BBC Scotland, STV and Capital Scotland.

Channel 4 opened The Garment Factory to create a new base for their programming facilities. This ‘Creative Hub’ is the home for creative decision makers supporting the production sector in Scotland and Northern Ireland; it will create 300 jobs. Additionally, Channel 4 aims to launch a new academy in 2020 to support the Creative Hub by attracting new talent.

INNOVATION DISTRICTS The city’s three universities are leading the way with research and development across new and emerging sectors, resulting in high numbers of start-up businesses.

Glasgow City Innovation District (GCID) was the pioneer, led by University of Strathclyde (UoS) and its ground breaking Technology & Innovation Centre (TIC) promoting collaboration between academia and the private sector in fintech, health tech, space and 5G amongst others enabling technologies and research. GCID will increase development of new technologies to help a wide range of sectors. Both TIC and neighbouring Inovo building are operating at almost full capacity and UoS is now exploring options for two further offices, commercial and collaborative developments (totalling over 320,000 sq.ft) to support the innovation district. AMIDS (Advanced Manufacturing Innovation District) will be a new manufacturing district in Renfrewshire next to Glasgow Airport. The 52 hectare district aims to house companies harnessing the latest technologies and conducting cutting edge research. This innovation hub aims to boost Scotland’s manufacturing sector by £535 million in GVA a year, creating 6,000 new jobs across the City Region. The first phase is scheduled for completion in early 2021 with confirmed occupiers including National Manufacturing Institute Scotland and the Medicines Manufacturing Innovation Centre. 6,733 GRID (Glasgow Riverside Innovation District) is a collaborative hub for innovation and start-ups in Glasgow (2019) entrepreneurship – clinical and research infrastructure. The District is a partnership between the Source: Centre for Entrepreneurs , Scottish Enterprise and . It is strategically located in close to the University of Glasgow, overlooking the Clyde. Glasgow leads the way in many emerging sectors; more satellites are manufactured in Glasgow than anywhere else outside Silicon Valley. The city’s innovation culture is also leading the way in the fight against climate change; Scottish Power are due to report in early 2020 on the likely skills requirement and job creation from the city’s objective to be the first UK city to become carbon neutral. Scottish Power have partnered with Glasgow City Council to transform Glasgow to a carbon neutral city by 2030. Glasgow has established itself as the first Low Emission Zone outside of London. Whitelee, on the outskirts of the city and owned by Scottish power is one of the UK’s largest onshore wind farms. Glasgow’s collaoration with Scottish Power aims to decarbonise core outputs such as transport and heating. 6 | Hotels driving real estate development in Glasgow

University of Glasgow Hotels driving real estate development in Glasgow | 7

CONFERENCES AND EVENTS Glasgow is internationally regarded as one of the world’s premier convention and events destinations. In November 2019 World Travel Awards named Glasgow as the world’s leading festivals and events destination (following on from the European award in June 2019). Building on many years’ success, and with world-class venues at their disposal, the Glasgow Convention Bureau +3.5% (GCB) has been voted UK’s best convention bureau at the M&IT Awards for the last 13 years. The compound annual growth Graph 1 shows the delegate days tracked by GCB and rate of conference delegates over the three year rolling averages over the last ten years the last ten years has been 3.5% (2010 – 2019).

GRAPH 1: CONFERENCE DELEGATE DAYS AND THREE-YEAR ROLLING AVERAGE Delegate Days Three Year Average

450 000’s

400

350

300

250

200

150 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Source: Glasgow Convention Bureau

Whilst the overall trajectory has been positive, the international conference market is Glasgow hosts more cyclical, resulting in peaks and troughs of conference demand. In recent years 2015 was a international delegates record year for delegate days, as was 2018; we have been informed by GCB that 2020 will than any other UK city set a new record. November’s UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) alone is expected outside London and is an to attract 170 world leaders and up to 30,000 participants and media from 200 countries. established and award This will be the largest event ever hosted in Glasgow and according to Glasgow City Council the impact on the city’s hospitality sector alone is expected to be £70m. winning conference city. With conferences It should be noted that according to GCB, seven large European conferences have decided confirmed to 2024 and not to commit to Glasgow due to Brexit, albeit it has been suggested that the city can bid prospects out to 2029 again for these events in the future. there is continuous interest in Glasgow as a conference host city. In 2020 the world’s focus will be on Glasgow as it prepares to host COP26, the largest and most prestigious meeting of world leaders

Aileen Crawford, Head of Conventions at GCB 8 | Hotels driving real estate development in Glasgow

SCOTTISH EVENT CAMPUS

The estimated economic impact of the SEC to Glasgow was £457m in 2018/19. Net additional expenditure in Scotland and the UK are shown below.

£223m £309m £457m to UK economy – to Scottish to Glasgow The city’s impressive list of world-class venues existing facilities economy economy is headed by the Scottish Event Campus (SEC) comprising the Scottish Exhibition Centre, SEC Armadillo and SSE Hydro Arena. The Hydro opened in 2013 and quickly established itself as one of the world’s busiest indoor entertainment venues (at least the fourth busiest each year since 2014) with annual ticket sales of around 1.2m. It has been a game changer for the city’s tourism sector, with 25% of visitors to the Hydro staying in hotels according to SEC.

The opening of the Hydro has allowed the SEC to sell other spaces for more large conferences. This growth is expected to continue, and SEC has lodged plans for a further expansion of facilities to create a global event campus on par with the world’s top conference and Source: SEC website exhibition spaces. The £150-£200m project includes additional SEC has estimated that in a stable year, the new facilities would generate an additional multi-purpose meeting and circulation spaces £123m for Glasgow, £106m to Scotland and £71m to the UK. with views of the city and River Clyde. SPORTS

In a city that thrives on its event Blessed with a range of world class facilities and extensive heritage, Glasgow has become one of the premier global sporting destinations. Following on from the highly successful economy, additional hotels are , the city has gone on to host a number of other high profile always welcome international events including the 2015 World Gymnastics Championships and the inaugural Kathleen Warden, Director of European Championships multi-sport event in 2018. Future confirmed events include UEFA Conference Sales at SEC EURO 2020 matches and the 2023 UCI World Cycling Championships. ACES Europe is a non-profit federation based in Brussels; the federation has granted Awards of European Capital, City, Community and Town of Sport annually since 2001. Glasgow has been awarded European Capital of Sport for 2023 due to its facilities and its contribution to society whilst helping to improve the quality of life of the Glaswegian community. It is the first European city to win the award twice. Glasgow won the ‘Best Small City’ award in 2018 from the SportBusiness Ultimate Sports City Awards. SportBusiness are global intelligence services who provide bespoke news, analysis, data and event information to executives within the sporting business. Glasgow was chosen after being shortlisted for the best small city by population. Hotels driving real estate development in Glasgow | 9

SEC and Pacific Quay 10 | Hotels driving real estate development in Glasgow

Hotel Supply and Performance

Table 2 shows the composition of city centre hotel supply by category. The largest proportion of room supply is in the four-star and limited service categories. The city is noticeably lacking in mid-market hotels - there are gaps for new and emerging brands in this space, particularly 72 hotels those with a "lifestyle" or design-led positioning in line with Glasgow's modern image and and apart-hotels larger than creative flair. Compared with other large UK cities, Glasgow has a very low supply of apartments and currently no branded apart-hotels. We expect this imbalance to be addressed in coming years due to the type of demand being attracted to the city and the evolving customer base.

20 bedrooms in TABLE 2: GLASGOW CITY CENTRE HOTEL SUPPLY BY CATEGORY

Rating No. of Hotels No. of Rooms % of Room Supply

Five-star 1 113 1%

Glasgow city centre Four-star 20 3,479 40% (including SEC and Pacific Quay) supplying 8,654 bedrooms Three-star 14 852 10%

Source: AM:PM Hotels Database 2020 Two-star 8 449 5%

Budget 22 3,432 40% Graph 3 shows the supply evolution as new hotels have been developed; whilst supply Apartments 7 329 4% growth has been steady since 2011, there was a noticeable jump in 2018, albeit with limited Total 72 8,654 100% openings in 2016/17 and none in 2019, the long-term trend is broadly the same. Source: AM:PM Hotels Database 2020

GRAPH 3: CITY CENTRE HOTEL MARKET EVOLUTION 2011 - 2019

80 Number Number of Bedrooms 9,000 of Hotels 70 8,500

60 8,000

50 7,500

40 7,000

30 6,500

20 6,000

10 5,500

0 5,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Avison Young | AM:PM Hotels Database 2020 Number of hotels Number of bedrooms Annual growth rate of new hotels

5.5% Compound annual growth rate of new hotels since 2011, as shown by the blue line in Graph 3 Hotels driving real estate development in Glasgow | 11

FUTURE SUPPLY TABLE 4: GLASGOW HOTELS UNDER CONSTRUCTION

There is a large pipeline of proposed new hotels in Glasgow; in fact this has been the case for a number Location Brand No of Bedrooms Opening Date of years, but the difference now is that it has become easier to fund hotel developments in the city due to St Enoch Square 209 Feb 2020 improving market dynamics and UK-wide growth in investment in the sector. According to AM:PM Hotels there are 40 hotels and apart-hotels with more than 20 bedrooms proposed SEC 216 Feb 2020 in the city, potentially 6,436 more bedrooms. Nine of these schemes (2,216 bedrooms) are under construction and due in the next two years, as shown in Table 4. Central Station 257 Apr 2020 There are a further five schemes (699 bedrooms) in the pipeline with brands confirmed, that might progress in the next few years. In our experience, hotel schemes Clyde Street 294 Sep 2020 that do not have brands confirmed are less likely to progress in the short to medium term.

Clyde Street 290 Sep 2020

SEC 243 Sep 2020

Renfrew Street 300 May 2021

George Square 245 Nov 2021

St Enoch Square 162 Dec 2021

Source: Avison Young / AM:PM Hotels

Glasgow City Chambers in 12 | Hotels driving real estate development in Glasgow

MARKET PERFORMANCE GRAPH 5: GLASGOW HOTEL PERFORMANCE 2011 TO 2019 Performance of hotels in the city has improved considerably in recent years, notably following the £90 85% 82.1% 81.0% 80.8% 80.7% 2013 opening of the SSE Hydro Arena and the major 79.6% 79.1% 80% £80 77.3% events year of 2014 (Commonwealth Games and Ryder £75.87 74.0% 74.7% £72.11 Cup) really putting the city on the map. City-wide £70.66 £71.25 75% £70 £67.78 £68.18 occupancy has been around 80% since 2014, with 70%

2017 a peak occupancy year of 82.1% with average £60 £57.25 £58.01 £56.12 £61.26 65% daily rate (ADR) of £72.11. £59.19 £56.24 £56.33 £50 £54.89 £55.12 60% Graph 5 shows market performance from 2011 to 55% 2019, including revenue per available room (RevPAR), £40 £44.84 £42.35 £41.91 the combined metric of occupancy and ADR and the 50% industry standard measure of revenue performance. £30 45%

Occupancy increased significantly to 2014, and has £20 40% since performed consistently at about 80%, with 2017 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 representing a peak over the studied period. The Source: STR Global 2020 Occpancy RevPAR ADR large number of hotel openings in 2018 has impacted occupancy performance, particualrly in 2019, a trough In terms of Glasgow’s performance against key competitor cities, occupancy in 2019 year in the international conference cycle. was above that of both Manchester and Birmingham, but below Edinburgh. Glasgow’s RevPAR was well below Edinburgh, slightly below Manchester (as a result of Glasgow’s ADR and RevPAR have also increased, notably in the ADR decline in 2019), but above Birmingham. Manchester was the only one of the four major events year of 2014, also the first full year of cities to record RevPAR growth in 2019. the SSE Hydro Arena. ADR in 2018 was 33% higher than in 2011. Whilst ADR increased in 2018 despite Graph 6 shows Glasgow’s 12-month rolling average occupancy (thereby smoothing falling occupancy, there was an impact in 2019 due out peaks and troughs across the year) from 2017 to the end of 2019; the impact of to the nature of the new supply (in particular the 376 new openings is clear to see, as is the return to growth in the second half of 2019 as the bedrooms Motel One) diluting market rates, as well as new supply has bedded-in. fewer high rate international conferences.

GRAPH 6: 12-MONTH ROLLING AVERAGE OCCUPANCY AND NEW HOTEL OPENINGS Occ 12-mth Avg

83.0% Ibis Styles 137 rooms 82.0% Waterloo Street

81.0% Moxy Hotels Motel One 181 rooms 374 rooms High Street 80.0% Radisson RED Central Station 174 rooms SEC 79.0% Native Point A Hotels 64 rooms 78.0% 122 rooms PS George Square Bath Street 24 rooms Bath Street 77.0%

76.0%

Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jan-17 Feb-17Mar-17 Apr-17May-17 Jun-17 Aug-17Sep-17Oct-17Nov-17Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18Mar-18 Apr-18May-18 Jun-18 Aug-18Sep-18Oct-18Nov-18Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19Mar-19 Apr-19May-19 Jun-19 Aug-19Sep-19Oct-19Nov-19Dec-19

Source: Avison Young | STR Global 2020 Hotels driving real estate development in Glasgow | 13

Graph 7 shows the relationship between percentage change in rooms sold and rooms available across the city (as reported by STR Global) against the major events in those years. It is noticeable that even following the peak event years (2014, 2015 and 2018) demand for hotel accommodation (rooms sold) has continued to grow. In fact there is little correlation as two of the strongest years for demand growth (2017 and 2019) were trough years in the international conference cycle. Whilst major events and the overall upwards trend are very important to the city’s hotel sector, there is a much broader base of demand from different sources.

GRAPH 7: CHANGES IN ROOMS AVAILABLE AND ROOMS SOLD (2014-2019) WITH MAJOR EVENTS Rooms available Rooms sold 8.0%

.2 7.0%

6.0% .

5. 5. 5.0%

4.5 4.0% . .

3.0% 2.4 2. 2.

2.0% 1.9 1. 1.0%

0.0% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

2014 2015 2016 • Commonwealth Games • World Gymnastics Championships • IBSA Scottish Annual Conference • Ryder Cup • MOBO Awards • Brexit Referendum • SSE Hydro Arena – first full year of operation • Scottish Independence Referendum

2017 2018 2019 • All-Energy Exhibition Conference • International Convention of Jehovah’s • European Indoor Athletics • Increase in inbound Scottish tourism Witnesses Championships • European Championships

Source: Avison Young | STR Global 2020 14 | Hotels driving real estate development in Glasgow

Demand Growth and Future Hotel Capacity

DEMAND GROWTH

It seems likely that demand for hotel accommodation in Glasgow will continue to grow strongly and for the time being operator and investor interest in the city remains very robust:

• With demand out-stripping supply in the office sector and investment markets robust, further Grade A developments are likely. Barclays move to Buchanan Wharf on the south-side of the Clyde should act as a catalyst for further development in this under- FUTURE HOTEL CAPACITY developed part of the city centre. Unlike other large cities, Glasgow has plenty of space Graph 8 shows our projected growth in supply and to expand with a number of large brownfield sites west along the Clyde on both north demand, and resulting market occupancy to 2023. and south sides; We have considered demand growth by sector • Scottish Government has announced plans to focus investment and development along (leisure, business and events) given core regeneration the Clyde; initiatives, balancing performance of hotels with this and supply growth. • Occupier demand and rents for large floor plates are likely to increase, inevitably leading to more pre-let and speculative office developments coming forward. Pre-let demand 2020 is likely to be a strong year anticipated to come forward in 2020/21is expected to be around 1m sq.ft; for Glasgow hotels due to current • Glasgow is leading the way in research and development across a number of emerging demand growth, the strength of the sectors, with significant expansion in innovation districts planned; conference sector and the UEFA EURO 2020 matches. About 70% of the new • A consultation is underway to develop a city region Metro system; funding for the first bedrooms under construction are phase of this, from Glasgow Airport to Paisley Gilmour Street is already available through scheduled to open in time to benefit the City Region Deal; from COP26. • The profile of the city will be enhanced enormously by hosting the UN Climate Change 2021 and 2022 are likely to be more difficult with conference in 2020, a year which is set to break records for conference delegates. This will market occupancy falling below 80%; however with benefit a number of sectors including the innovation districts and leisure tourism; no new hotels confirmed yet for 2022, we believe • The continued expansion of facilities at SEC will enable further growth in conference and occupancy should return to about 80% in 2023. events markets. Even at 78%, occupancy would be higher than the 2019 Regional UK average of 76%.

GRAPH 8: PROJECTED ROOMS SUPPLY, ROOMS SOLD AND OCCUPANCY Rooms Sold Supply Market occ.%

12,000 81.0% .1 11,000 80.0%

9. 79.0% .4 10,000 9.1 . 78.5% 9,000 77.0% 8,000 76.5% 7,000 75.0%

6,000 74.0%

5,000 73.0%

4,000 72.0% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Source: Avison Young Hotels driving real estate development in Glasgow | 15

Gallery of Modern Art in Royal Exchange Square

By extending the horizon on the forecasting model, to maintain a stable occupancy around 80%, we believe there is capacity for about 350-400 new rooms on average each year from 2022 to 2029.

This means two to three new hotels on average each year, and more than 5,000 rooms over the next ten years, almost double the growth over the last ten years. Our model forecasts demand CAGR of 4.6% from 2020 to 2029 driven by the strong commercial sector, growing innovation and tech sectors, increasing profile as a global conference, event and leisure destination. Future developments will reflect this new modern Glasgow, introducing diverse, sustainable, tech-driven, “lifestyle” and design-led hotel and apart-hotel products and brands. It is worth noting that more central and better quality hotels tend to perform better than the market average (occupancy up to 83%-85%) and we would expect this trend to continue. Whilst international conferences will remain cyclical, the broad base of other commercial and leisure drivers will ensure an overall demand growth trajectory over the next ten years. New hotels will continue to be an important part of this evolving city. Should you wish to discuss any details within this update please get in touch

Richard Gaunt Principal Head of Hotel Consultancy [email protected]

Andrew Renouf Director Hotel Consultancy [email protected]

Visit us online avisonyoung.co.uk/research

Avison Young Sutherland House, 149 St Vincent Street, Glasgow, G2 5NW 65 Gresham Street, London EC2V 7NQ @AYUKviews

Avison Young is the trading name of GVA Grimley Limited. ©2020 Avison Young Created: 02/20 Ref: 12021

This report has been prepared by Avison Young for general information purposes only. Whilst Avison Young endeavours to ensure that the information in this report is correct it does not warrant completeness or accuracy. You should not rely on it without seeking professional advice. Avison Young assumes no responsibility for errors or omissions in this publication or other documents which are referenced by or linked to this report. To the maximum extent permitted by law and without limitation Avison Young excludes all representations, warranties and conditions relating to this report and the use of this report. All intellectual property rights are reserved and prior written permission is required from Avison Young to reproduce material contained in this report.