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LIC Housing Finance (LICHF)

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LIC Housing Finance (LICHF) LIC Housing Finance (LICHF) CMP: | 496 Target: | 475 (-4%) Target Period: 12 months HOLD August 5, 2019 Sectoral headwinds to weigh on operational performance LIC Housing Finance reported a steady operational performance led by steady advances growth & margins. NII came in at ~| 1182 crore, up ~18% YoY led by steady credit growth. Higher slippages & provisions impacted Particulars earnings which came at | 611 crore, up 7% YoY. Particulars Amount Loan growth continue to remain steady at 16% YoY with individual loans Market Capitalisation | 25024 crore growing at 14.9% YoY, while developer loan on a lower base grew at strong Stage 3 (Q1FY20) | 1757 crore pace of 62.3% YoY to | 13614 crore (6.9% of total loan). The management’s NIM % (Q1FY20) 2.35 52 week H/L 587 /388 focus continue to remain on affordable housing compared to LAP/LRDs; Update Result Networth (Q4FY19) | 16259 crore consequently share of LAP/LRD declined to 16.9% vs. 17.2% in Q4FY19. Face value | 2 Asset quality witnessed deterioration with absolute stage 3 default at | 1757 DII Holding (%) 9.1 crore vs.| 1524 crore. Stage 3 default ratio surged 44 bps QoQ to 1.98%. FII Holding (%) 32.5 Absolute GNPA was at | 3887 crore out of which | 2307 crore was attributable to individual loans, while lumpy NPA from developer loans stood at | 1580 crore attributable to ~eight developer projects. Key Highlights Asset quality witnessed deterioration Unfavourable environment & competition to impact growth largely due to higher slippages in LICHF’s loan growth in past was largely led by healthy traction in individual developer loans loan segment. However, given unfavourable lending environment & rising Loan growth continue to remain competition, especially from the bank, is seen impacting incremental healthy at 16% YoY led by 15% YoY growth. Recent circular by National Housing Bank (NHB) applicable to HFCs growth in individual loans curbing disbursement under subvention scheme with developers is seen further impacting growth. Therefore, we model 15% CAGR in advances in Maintain HOLD with a revised target FY19-21E to | 258570 crore. price of | 475 ( earlier | 540) Asset quality weakens; individual NPA on continues increase LICHF’s asset quality witnessed deterioration in past few quarters on back of higher slippages in individual book. Individual home loans ( ~76% of book) witnessed surge in GNPA from 0.42% in Q4FY18 to 1.25% in Q1FY20. Research Analyst Research Equity Retail Further, recent growth in non-individual book remains a near term concern. – Going ahead, overall asset quality is seen to remain stable. However, Kajal Gandhi marginal pressure from non-individual portfolio cannot be ruled out. [email protected] Vishal Narnolia Valuation & Outlook [email protected] LICHF’s developer & LAP portfolio has been witnessing traction and core Harsh Shah individual book has been witnessing a moderation in growth. Long awaited [email protected] ICICI Securities Securities ICICI margin uptick is seen but with rise in developer portfolio increases risk of deterioration in asset quality. Being a superior franchise, LICHF is expected to report healthy performance but impact in terms of slower growth and marginal asset quality pain cannot be ruled out. Recent shifting of MD makes us a bit cautious. Therefore, we downgrade our target multiple from 1.4x earlier to 1.2x. Consequently, we revise our target price lower to | 475 (earlier | 540) and maintain our HOLD recommendation on the stock. Key Financial Summary | crore FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E CAGR (FY19-21E) NII 3645 3701 4463 5008 6034 16% PPP 3237 3301 3998 4640 5609 18% PAT 1931 2013 2431 2584 3113 13% ABV (|) 215.1 237.2 275.7 324.6 384.1 P/E 13.0 12.4 10.7 9.7 8.1 P/ABV 2.3 2.1 1.8 1.5 1.3 RoA 1.4 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 RoE 19.1 16.9 16.3 15.1 15.8 s Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Result Update | LIC Housing Finance ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 1: Variance Analysis Q1FY20 Q1FY20E Q1FY19 YoY (%) Q4FY19 QoQ (%) Comments NII 1,182 1,241 1,002 17.9 1,223 -3.3 Seasonally high slippages impact NII growth NIM (%) 2.35 2.57 2.32 3 bps 2.54 -19 bps Marginal improvement in margins witnessed Other Income 23 31 29 -22.8 35 -34.1 Net Total Income 1,205 1,272 1,032 16.7 1,257 -4.2 Operating Expenses 110 140 83 33.3 168 -34.1 Added 8 marketing offices in Tier 2 & 3 cities in the quarter PPP 1,094 1,132 949 15.3 1,089 0.4 Provision 253 155 161 57.6 103 145.6 PBT 841 977 788 6.7 986 -14.7 Tax Outgo 230 293 220 4.4 293 -21.3 PAT 608 684 568 7.0 694 -12.4 Higher provisions on back of slippages dent earnings Key Metrics GNPA 1,757 3,061 2,036 -13.7 2,972 -40.9 Individual loan book contiue to grow at a steady pace of 15% YoY. The Total Loans 197,768 195,636 168,652 17.3 194,646 1.6 developer book grew 62% YoY on a lower base Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 2: Change in estimates FY20E FY21E (| Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Net Interest Income 5,092 5,008 -1.6 6034 6,034 0.0 Pre Provision Profit 4,749 4,640 -2.3 5635 5,609 -0.5 NIM(%) (calculated) 2.4 2.4 -4 bps 2 2.5 0 bps PAT 2,706 2,584 -4.5 3129 3,113 -0.5 ABV per share (|) 326.3 324.6 -0.5 386 384.1 -0.5 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 3: Assumption Current Earlier FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E Credit growth (%) 15.1 16.9 15.2 15.4 15.2 15.4 NIM Calculated (%) 2.36 2.35 2.38 2.49 2.42 2.49 Cost to income ratio (%) 16.4 11.0 10.4 10.0 10.2 9.9 GNPA (| crore) 1,304 2,972 3,394 3,790 3,394 3,790 NNPA (| crore) 712 1,945 1,891 1,697 1,891 1,697 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2 Result Update | LIC Housing Finance ICICI Direct Research Story in Charts Exhibit 4: Loan book to grow at 15.3% CAGR for FY19-21E 300000 16.0 17 16.2 16.3 16.2 250000 15.2 17 15.5 200000 15.4 15.3 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.4 16 14.7 14.9 15.1 16 150000 15 (| crore) (| 100000 15 (%) 50000 14 127437 135366 147051 156175 166363 168652 175953 181698 194646 197768 224151 258571 131096 144534 151417 0 14 FY18 FY19 FY17 FY20E FY21E Q1FY17 Q3FY17 Q1FY18 Q3FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY17 Q2FY18 Loans Growth (RHS) Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 5: Share of LAP on the rise 3.8% 3.9% 4.0% 5.5% 5.0% 6.2% 6.3% 6.7% 100.0% 6.9% 80.0% 60.0% 83.3% 82.9% 82.8% 80.2% 79.0% 77.8% 77.2% 76.1% 76.2% 40.0% 20.0% 12.9% 13.2% 13.2% 14.3% 16.0% 16.0% 16.5% 17.2% 16.9% 0.0% Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18 FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 FY19 Q1FY20 LAP Retail loans Developer loans Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 6: NIM expected at 2.47% by FY21E 2.64 2.7 2.58 2.6 2.52 2.54 2.49 2.47 2.5 2.35 2.36 2.35 2.36 2.4 2.33 2.34 2.32 2.33 2.3 2.2 2.1 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q4FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 NIM (calculated) Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research ICICI Securities | Retail Research 3 Result Update | LIC Housing Finance ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 7: Asset quality expected to stay manageable at 1.5% 2.0 4100 2.2 3700 1.5 2.0 3300 1.5 1.5 1.8 2900 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.6 2500 1.4 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.2 2100 0.7 1.0(%) 1700 0.8 (| crore) (| 1300 0.6 900 0.4 1211 1360 1304 2036 2100 2290 2972 1757 3394 3790 500 1066 0.2 100 0.0 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E Q1FY18 Q2FY18 Q3FY18 Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q1FY20 GNPA GNPA ratio (RHS) Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 8: Return ratio to remain stable 30.0 25.8 2.5 25.0 2.0 18.8 19.6 19.1 2.1 18.6 18.1 20.0 16.8 16.9 16.3 15.8 15.1 1.5 (%) 15.0 1.5 1.5 (%) 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.0 10.0 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 5.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E RoE RoA (RHS) Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research ICICI Securities | Retail Research 4 Result Update | LIC Housing Finance ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 9: Recommendation History vs. Consensus 900 70.0 800 60.0 700 50.0 600 500 40.0 (|) 400 30.0 (%) 300 20.0 200 100 10.0 0 0.0 Jun-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Price Idirect target Consensus Target Mean % Consensus with BUY Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICI Direct Research Exhibit 10: Top 10 Shareholders Rank Name Latest Filing Date % O/SPosition (m)Change (m) 1 Life Insurance Corporation of India 31-03-2019 40.31% 203.44M 0 2 Fidelity Management & Research Company 31-05-2019 7.38% 37.24M +0.58M 3 FIL Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited 31-03-2019 3.13% 15.80M +1.49M 4 Bank Muscat SAOG 31-03-2019 2.28% 11.50M 0 5 The Vanguard Group, Inc.
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