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Sharekhan Top Picks Visit us at www.sharekhan.com June 02, 2014 Sharekhan Top Picks The Indian equity market shed all inhibitions and celebrated the an attractive opportunity for investors to accumulate these stocks thumping majority mandate for the Narendra Modi led National with a little longer time horizon. Democratic Alliance government in the last month. The benchmark To make space, we exit ITC (keeping in mind a possible hike in indices, Sensex and Nifty, appreciated by 10.2% and 10% the excise duty on cigarettes in the forthcoming budget) and respectively. Our Top Pick basket appreciated by 10.4%, which is take home some profits in Apollo Tyres (making space for the largely in line with the movement in the benchmark indices. The other stocks in the auto sector) and HCL Technologies. One action was more pronounced in the mid-cap space with the CNX addition more than the deletions this time is to make up for one Midcap Index appreciating by close to 17% in the same period. extra deletion made in the last month. In line with the key identified investment themes (policy push- To re-iterate our bullish stance, we believe that the equity market driven re-rating of construction, power and public sector is on the cusp of a multi-year rally with the potential to give undertakings, and early beneficiaries of an economic revival, like exponential returns to investors. Do not get bogged down by the auto and financial services), we are adding LIC Housing Finance, recent 20-25% run-up and take a longer-term view on the stock TVS Motor Company, Gabriel India and Gateway Distriparks to market (and play the multi-year rally for handsome gains). the Top Picks basket. We believe that a possible pull-back or correction in these stocks after the recent upsurge would offer Consistent outperformance (absolute returns; not annualised) (%) 1 month 3 months 6 months 1 year 3 years 5 years Top Picks 10.4 21.7 27.1 34.9 52.6 112.2 Sensex 10.2 16.8 18.2 25.1 34.0 62.5 Nifty 10.0 16.9 18.4 23.0 33.7 60.9 CNX Mid-cap 17.5 27.8 34.2 32.5 26.3 83.6 Absolute outperformance Constantly beating Nifty and Sensex (cumulative returns) since April 2009 300% 272% 350% 250% 300% 200% 250% 150% 116% 200% 100% 35% 150% 50% 22% 12% 17% -20% 0% 100% CY2014 CY2013 CY2012 CY2011 CY2010 CY2009 Since -50% Inc eption Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Oct-09 Jan-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 (Jan Apr-09 Sharekhan (Top Picks) Sensex Nif ty Sharekhan Sensex Nif ty 2009) Name CMP* PER (x) RoE (%) Price Upside (Rs) FY14 FY15E FY16E FY14 FY15E FY16E target (Rs)# (%) Crompton Greaves 189 48.5 22.0 16.8 6.7 13.4 15.6 225 19 Federal Bank 118 12.0 10.3 8.6 12.6 13.3 14.5 142 20 Gabriel India 44 12.9 10.6 8.3 14.6 17.7 19.1 ** - Gateway Distriparks 226 17.3 15.9 13.5 17.5 18.0 20.3 250 11 ICICI Bank 1,460 17.2 15.4 12.9 14.0 14.2 15.5 1,728 18 Larsen & Toubro 1,648 31.0 27.1 22.6 15.6 16.0 17.4 1,840 12 LIC Housing 329 12.6 10.5 8.8 18.8 19.4 19.9 373 13 Lupin 923 31.4 22.5 19.6 25.3 26.5 24.1 1,100 19 Reliance 1,093 15.7 14.5 13.1 11.3 11.0 11.0 ** - TVS Motors 130 23.6 17.1 13.7 19.9 23.4 24.2 142 10 Zee Entertainment 265 28.5 24.8 19.5 20.6 20.6 23.1 367 38 *CMP as on June 02, 2014 # Price target for next 6-12 months ** Under review For Private Circulation only Regd Add: Sharekhan Limited, 10th Floor, Beta Building, Lodha iThink Techno Campus, Off. JVLR, Opp. Kanjurmarg Railway Station, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai – 400042, Maharashtra. Tel: 022 - 61150000. Fax: 67481899; E-mail: [email protected]; Website: www.sharekhan.com; CIN: U99999MH1995PLC087498. Sharekhan Ltd.: SEBI Regn. Nos. BSE- INB/INF011073351 ; CD-INE011073351; NSE– INB/INF231073330 ; CD-INE231073330; MCX Stock Exchange- INB/INF261073333 ; CD-INE261073330; DP-NSDL-IN-DP-NSDL-233-2003 ; CDSL-IN-DP-CDSL-271-2004 ; PMS-INP000000662 ; Mutual Fund-ARN 20669 ; Commodity trading through Sharekhan Commodities Pvt. Ltd.: MCX-10080 ; (MCX/TCM/CORP/0425) ; NCDEX-00132 ; (NCDEX/TCM/CORP/0142) ; NCDEX SPOT-NCDEXSPOT/116/CO/11/20626; For any complaints email at [email protected] ; Disclaimer: Client should read the Risk Disclosure Document issued by SEBI & relevant exchanges and Do’s & Don’ts by MCX & NCDEX and the T & C on www.sharekhan.com before investing. sharekhan top picks Name CMP PER (x) RoE (%) Price Upside (Rs) FY14 FY15E FY16E FY14 FY15E FY16E target (Rs) (%) Crompton Greaves 189 48.5 22.0 16.8 6.7 13.4 15.6 225 19 Remarks: Crompton Greaves deals in industrial and power systems, which hold high potential, given the prospective turnaround in the investment cycle, with higher focus on the power transmission & distribution sector. It also has a strong presence in domestic consumer products which is expected to witness a high growth, thanks to brand leverage, deep presence and stable demand. Though the power system business in the USA and the subsidiaries in Canada are still not out of the woods, the overall performance of the international subsidiaries would improve backed by a recovery in the European business, which was hit by a restructuring exercise. A reversal in the outlook for domestic demand would improve sentiment too. Consequently, we expect a sharp improvement in its margin, earnings and return ratios which would be the key driver of a re-rating. We remain positive on the stock. Federal Bank 118 12.0 10.3 8.6 12.6 13.3 14.5 142 20 Remarks: Federal Bank undertook structural changes in the balance sheet, viz increasing the proportion of the better rated assets and improving the retail deposit base, and is thus better prepared to ride the recovery cycle. As the economy is gradually showing signs of a revival, the bank is much better capitalised (tier-1 capital adequacy ratio of 15%) compared with its peer banks to expand the balance sheet. Asset quality has improved substantially over the past three to four quarters and is likely to improve further in the coming period. Higher provision coverage of 84% and a possibility of recovery from one large-ticket account (likely in the next two to three quarters) would further increase the comfort on asset quality. The valuation of 1.2x FY2016 BV is attractive when compared with the regional banks and other old private banks. The expansion in the return on equity (RoE) led by a better than industry growth (FY2014-16) will lead to an expansion in the valuation multiple. We have a Buy rating on the stock with a price target of Rs142. Gabriel India 44 12.9 10.6 8.3 14.6 17.7 19.1 ** - Remarks: Gabriel India (Gabriel), a leading manufacturer of shock absorbers is perfectly set to reap the benefit of strong growth in two-wheeler segment and revival in the passenger and CV segments. The management is focusing on increasing the revenue share from the after-sales (high margin segment) and export segments. Additionally, the revenue share with Honda’s two-wheeler business (the fastest growing two-wheeler company) is expected to increase as it starts to ramp-up production at its new Karnataka facility. No major capex, strong free cashflow generation would help to reduce debt burden going forward. Consequently, it would lead to higher margins and return ratios. In recent time, the stock has generated healthy return of 40% and almost achieved our target price of Rs46. We continue to remain firm on company’s fundamental, given the fact of strong market share across business verticals, improving outlook of CV/PV segments and recent restructuring exercise to concentrate on each of the business verticals (two-wheeler, PV and CV) to improve the product-mix, after the sales service as well as to improve the exports, which would lead better financial performance. Currently, the stock is under review. Sharekhan 2 June 2014 sharekhan top picks Name CMP PER (x) RoE (%) Price Upside (Rs) FY14 FY15E FY16E FY14 FY15E FY16E target (Rs) (%) Gateway Distriparks 226 17.3 15.9 13.5 17.5 18 20.3 250 11 Remarks: GDL continues to struggle due to a slowdown in demand and intense competition in its CFS business (especially at JNPT). However, the expected uptick in Kochi and the commissioning of the Faridabad inland container depot (ICD) facility would aid the recovery in the stand-alone operations. The management also expects the improving trend in the rail freight and cold chain subsidiaries to sustain on account the recent efforts to control costs and improve the utilisation. We continue to have faith in GDL’s long-term growth story based on the expansion of each of its three business segments, ie CFS, rail transportation and cold storage infrastructure segments. First, we believe the listing of SLL will unlock the inherent value and the potential of the cold chain operations. Second, the coming on stream of the Faridabad facility and the strong operational performance will further enhance the performance of the rail operations.
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