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Formatting Guide: Colors & Fonts MOBILE M&A AND VALUATION UPDATE Q2 2017 BOSTON CHICAGO LONDON LOS ANGELES NEW YORK ORANGE COUNTY PHILADELPHIA SAN DIEGO SILICON VALLEY TAMPA CONTENTS Section Page Introduction . Research Coverage: Mobile 3 . Key Takeaways 4-5 M&A Activity & Multiples . M&A Dollar Volume 7 . M&A Transaction Volume 8-10 . LTM Revenue Multiples 11-12 . Revenue Multiples by Segment 13 . Highest Revenue Multiple Transaction for LTM 14 . Notable M&A Transactions 15 . Most Active Buyers 16 Public Company Valuation & Operating Metrics . Mobile 115 Public Company Universe 18-20 . Recent IPOs 21 . Stock Price Performance 24 . LTM Revenue, EBITDA & P/E Multiples 25-27 . Revenue, EBITDA & EPS Growth 28-30 . Margin Analysis 31-32 . Best / Worst Performers 33-34 Notable Transaction Profiles 35-40 Public Company Trading & Operating Metrics 41-46 Technology & Telecom Team 47 1 INTRODUCTION RESEARCH COVERAGE: MOBILE Capstone’s Technology & Telecom Group focuses its research efforts on the follow market segments: MOBILE & WIRELESS SAAS & CLOUD CONSUMER INTERNET • App Stores & Content Aggregators • Carrier Back Office • Games / Virtual Goods • M-Commerce Enablement • Messaging & VoIP • Mobile / Local Marketing • Mobile Devices CONSUMER IT & E-COMMERCE • Mobile OS & Utility SW TELECOM HARDWARE • Mobility & Monitoring • Portals & Social Networks • Search & Referral - Diversified • Travel & Entertainment • Vertical Market • Video, Music & eBooks 3 KEY TAKEAWAYS – M&A ACTIVITY & MULTIPLES LTM M&A dollar volume decreased to $52.5B, just shy of the five-year high of $54.2B » Q1’17 saw a lack of deals above $500M with the largest transaction at just $366M » LTM M&A dollar volume will likely drop significantly in Q2’17 absent additional large transactions LTM M&A transaction volume of 421 deals down slightly from 2016 LTM transaction volume for private targets decreased to 413 deals, slightly trailing 2016 » LTM transaction volume saw 7 deals with values greater than $500M, 6 of which were transacted during Q2’16 and Q3’16 LTM public transaction volume remained consistent with 2016 at 8 deals Median LTM revenue multiple paid for private companies decreased slightly to 2.8x Notable M&A transactions in Q1’17: . Tsinghua Tongfong / NQMobile (FL Mobile Jiutan Tech) ($366M) . TakeTwo Interactive / Socialpoint ($250M) . Undisclosed / Baidu Mobile Games Business ($174M) . Afterpay / Touchcorp ($140M) . Fingerprint Cards / DeltaID ($120M) The most active buyers included Alphabet, Microsoft, Apple, Snap, and Pinterest (sorted by most active) Capstone expects M&A activity and exit valuations to remain strong in 2017, though likely not reaching the levels we saw at the end of 2015 as the market remains relatively flat with concerns over volatility » In the longer term, there is increasing risk that a market correction could negatively impact activity levels and valuation multiples 4 KEY TAKEAWAYS – PUBLIC COMPANY METRICS 3 companies went public during Q1’17, 2 of which were added to the Mobile 115 Q1’17 stock performance was strong as the Mobile 115 performed slightly better at 10.3% compared to the NASDAQ with a gain of 9.8% » Fueled by fresh IPOs, Q1’17 was a strong quarter for the technology sector, with the NASDAQ nearing record highs Median LTM revenue multiples increased to 3.4x, recovering from a near five-year low Median LTM EBITDA multiples increased to 13.7x, recovering from a three-year decline Strong stock performance in Q1’17 increased the median LTM P/E multiple to 25.4x, recovering from a three-year decline » Public markets demonstrate a strong preference for companies growing quickly and investing to solidify market leadership status, confident that future profits will come with scale Median revenue growth decreased to 10.1% versus 14.0% in 2016 Median EBITDA growth rates increased significantly in LTM 3/31/17 to 5.3% recovering from the five-year low of 1.1% in 2016 Median EPS growth has fluctuated significantly over the past five years with LTM 3/31/17 slipping to a 5 year low of 5.5% Median gross margins have remained consistent at 59.8% in LTM 3/31/17 and remain near the five-year low of 59.7% » Vertical Market Apps segment commanded the highest median gross margin of 81.1% The Median EBITDA margin increased in Q1’17, recovering from a five-year low to 19.3% 5 M&A ACTIVITY & MULTIPLES LTM M&A DOLLAR VOLUME LTM M&A dollar volume decreased to $52.5B, just shy of the five-year high of $54.2B » Q1’17 saw a lack of deals above $500M with the largest transaction at just $366M » 6 $1B+ deals totaling $45.2B during Q2 and Q3 2016 buoyed M&A dollar volume, with the largest deal being the Microsoft / Linkedin deal with a value of $29.3B » LTM M&A dollar volume will likely drop significantly in Q2’17 absent additional large transactions $60,000 $50,000 $5,537 $40,000 $32,467 $32,475 $30,000 $34,465 $2,726 $20,000 $40,439 Total Transaction Value Transaction Total $10,000 $2,871 $21,500 $21,708 $19,976 $8,369 $9,256 $0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 LTM Total Private $ Total Public $ 7 LTM M&A TRANSACTION VOLUME BY SEGMENT LTM M&A transaction volume of 421 deals down slightly from 2016 » The Mobile OS & Utility Software, Mobile / Local Marketing, and m-Commerce Enablement are the largest segments by deal count, representing 42% of total LTM M&A transaction volume » Q1’17 transaction volume increased to 118 deals, representing a 33% increase from Q4’16 600 18 18 16 500 26 8 10 9 50 12 20 4 13 14 31 32 56 21 13 400 14 31 42 66 24 9 10 17 5 7 33 17 25 63 105 300 38 53 40 99 6 38 57 70 66 9 100 8 Transactions 60 200 15 4 6 83 58 57 67 42 28 31 18 26 29 28 100 40 41 66 59 54 48 45 31 30 46 35 37 22 36 12 20 24 16 24 0 12 11 10 3 14 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 LTM Apps Stores & Content Aggregators Carrier Back Office Mobile Games / Virtual Goods m-Commerce Enablement Messaging & VoIP Mobile / Local Marketing Mobile Devices Mobile OS & Utility Software Mobility & Monitoring Portals & Social Networks Search & Referral - Diversified Travel & Entertainment Vertical Market Apps Video, Music & eBooks 8 LTM M&A TRANSACTION VOLUME BY DEAL SIZE – PRIVATE TARGETS LTM transaction volume for private targets decreased to 413 deals, slightly trailing 2016 » LTM transaction volume saw 7 deals with values greater than $500M, 6 of which were transacted during Q2’16 and Q3’16 Median deal value increased to $21M as there were fewer small deals in the last twelve months than in 2016 100% 1 5 1 3 6 5 4 4 6 7 4 3 90% 6 4 4 14 7 5 5 14 19 80% 9 8 9 15 70% 11 13 10 6 10 60% 15 15 7 7 20 9 50% 10 19 16 24 40% 29 30% 44 20% 44 32 28 42 40 10% 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 LTM Total Deals 356 444 472 544 429 413 Deals w/ Value 78 122 137 114 94 75 Median ($M) $20 $20 $24 $19 $13 $21 $0-10M $10-25M $25-50M $50-100M $100-250M $250-500M $500M-1B $1B+ 9 LTM M&A TRANSACTION VOLUME BY DEAL SIZE – PUBLIC TARGETS LTM public transaction volume remained consistent with 2016 at 8 deals » Q1’17 public transaction volume only saw 1 deal, with the bulk of LTM transactions occurring in Q3 and Q4 2016 LTM public transactions were spread across a wide range of deal values, resulting In a median deal value of $104M 100% 90% 1 3 2 2 2 80% 3 70% 1 5 1 1 1 60% 1 1 1 50% 1 1 1 1 1 40% 3 1 1 1 30% 1 2 3 1 20% 1 1 1 10% 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 LTM Total Deals 5 8 7 18 8 8 Median ($M) $396 $265 $178 $370 $100 $104 $0-10M $10-25M $25-50M $50-100M $100-250M $250-500M $500M-1B $1B+ 10 MEDIAN LTM REVENUE MULTIPLES – PRIVATE TARGETS Median LTM revenue multiple paid for private companies decreased to 2.8x » Q1’17 saw the lowest median revenue multiple during the last twelve months at 2.0x compared to 2.3x and 3.0x in Q4’16 and Q3’16, respectively 4.0x 3.5x 3.4x 3.2x 3.0x 2.8x 2.5x 2.5x 2.3x 2.0x 1.6x 1.5x 1.0x Median Revenue Multiple 0.5x 0.0x 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 LTM 25th % 1.7x 0.8x 1.4x 1.1x 1.1x 0.8x 75th % 4.7x 5.9x 8.5x 3.8x 4.1x 4.2x 11 MEDIAN LTM REVENUE MULTIPLES – PUBLIC TARGETS Median LTM revenue multiple paid for public companies increased slightly to 1.1x » Q1’17 posted a median revenue multiple of 4.1x compared to 1.1x in Q4’16, however with only one deal in each quarter, the median is not very meaningful » Median LTM revenue multiples ranged from 1.0x to 8.1x, with Q2’16 posting the highest multiple at 8.1x With just 8 public deals in LTM it is difficult to draw broad conclusions on valuation implications given the small sample set 3.0x 2.7x 2.5x 2.0x 2.0x 2.0x 1.5x 1.4x 1.0x 1.1x 1.0x Median Revenue Multiple 0.5x 0.0x 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 LTM 25th % 1.0x 1.6x 1.9x 1.1x 1.0x 1.0x 75th % 2.7x 2.5x 5.7x 3.5x 4.1x 5.6x 12 MEDIAN LTM REVENUE MULTIPLES BY SEGMENT – LAST 5 YEARS Median LTM revenue multiples for Mobile segments ranged from 0.7x to 4.9x » Travel & Entertainment garners the highest multiple as their customers represent high dollar purchase opportunities » Mobile OS & Utility Software has also seen high multiples as enterprises increasing their mobile focus represent large dollar opportunities with lower churn relative to consumer apps 6.0x 4.9x 5.0x 4.8x 4.1x 3.8x 4.0x 3.1x 2.7x 2.7x 3.0x 2.5x 2.5x 2.0x 2.0x 1.7x 1.1x 1.0x 1.0x 0.7x Median Revenue Multiple 0.0x 13 HIGHEST REVENUE MULTIPLE TRANSACTIONS FOR LTM LTM Multiple Premium Enterprise Ann.
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