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The Strength of the Network

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The Strength of the Network THE STRENGTH OF THE NETWORK A. Profumo Group CEO 1 AGENDA UniCredit today: Group’s shape and positioning Focus on CEE: a growth and value creation story Conclusions 2 2 UNICREDIT: EXCELLENT POSITIONING IN EUROPE, UNIQUE PLATFORM IN CEE UNPARALLELED EUROPEAN FRANCHISE Banking operations in 23 countries(1) More than ~40 million customers About 9,500 branches FOUR CORE MARKETS Italy: #2, ~16% market share(2) Germany: #3, ~5% market share(2) Austria: #1, ~19% market share(2) WELL BALANCED REVENUE PORTFOLIO CEE: the biggest investor in the region Total Revenues Other 8% GLOBAL PRODUCT FACTORIES CEE 18% MIB: a strong regional player with leading position in CEE Italy 47% (#2 ECM and M&A in 2006) Austria 10% Pioneer, a global player: AuM(3) ~290 bn Leasing: European leader as for new production(4) Credit cards: a strong platform with ~11 mln credit cards issued, Germany 17% (of which 6.5 mln in CEE(5)), #5 in Europe and #1 in Turkey NOTE: Year-end 2006 data, referred to UniCredit + Capitalia + ATF +USB Groups (combined pro-forma) Source: UniCredit, Capitalia, ATF, USB 2006 data 3 (1) Including ATF (2) Market shares and rankings calculated on customer loans, considering only loans to domestic customers for Germany (3) As of March 07, including Pioneer Austria and Capitalia. (4) After merger with Capitalia, almost ex-aequo with Lombard Finance (5) Cards already activated 3 KEY ACHIEVEMENTS SO FAR GERMANY & Integration and restructuring well on track AUSTRIA 3 Full divisionalization in place 3 Rightsizing (Germany(1) and Austria: ~-2,600 FTEs from Dec05 to Mar07) 3 Rationalization of non-strategic assets (RER portfolio from 15.4 in Jan05 to 3.6 bn in Mar07) CEE In-country mergers 3 Completed … Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria 3 2H07 … Poland, Ukraine, Czech Republic, BiH Continued commitment in the region: entering Kazakhstan, one of the most promising markets ITALY Capitalia merger: a significant enhancement of competitive positioning in a key core market 4 (1) Including outsourcing of ~700 FTE in 1Q07 4 THE MERGER WITH CAPITALIA: A CLEAR AND UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN THE GROUP IN A CORE MARKET Strengthening in one of UniCredit core markets, where still low banking penetration offers appealing opportunities for growth (Italian banking system pre-tax profit: ~8% CAGR 06-091) In a rapidly concentrating market, the merger with Capitalia is the right move to ride the growth in the Italian market Value creation potential (~1.2 bn gross synergies by 2010) underpinned by: 3 Friendly transaction with clear governance and defined business model 3 Recognized track record in managing integration processes 3 Limited execution risk … several mergers already done in the past! 3 ~800 mln cost synergies, ~400 mln revenue synergies, 1.1 bn restructuring costs 5 (1) Source: UniCredit Research & Strategy May 07 5 FAST CONSOLIDATION IN ITALY Top 5 players branches market shares: ~+11 p.p. in just 2 years As of y-e 2005 As of y-e 2006 As of y-e 2007E Banca Intesa 9.9% Intesa SanPaolo(1) 17.9% Intesa SanPaolo(2) 17.6% UniCredit + UniCredit 9.7% UniCredit 9.3% Capitalia(3) 15.5% Banco Popolare SPIMI 9.6% Capitalia 6.2% (BPVN + BPI)(3) 6.8% Capitalia 6.1% MPS Group 5.9% MPS Group(2) 6.5% MPS Group 5.7% BPVN 3.7% UBI (BPU + BL)(3) 5.9% TOTAL ~41% ~43% ~52% top 5 Changed banking environment in key regions: market share of top 5 players(4) rising by over 8 p.p. just in the last year in Lombardy, Emilia Romagna, Sicily 6 (1) Net of branches to be disposed in 2007 to CASA (2) Intesa SanPaolo net of branches disposed to CASA and Biverbanca sold to MPS (105 branches); MPS gross of 105 branches of Biverbanca (3) Market shares coming from internal calculation based on data derived from the market presentations of the different merger deals (4) Taking 2006 top-five players as pivot of the analysis 6 A COMPLEMENTARY NETWORK STRONG IN KEY REGIONS UCI Ranking(1) % national GDP MS Post-Merger Combined Network 3 20.9% Lombardia 9.3% 1 11.0% Lazio 27.1% 9090 1 9.3% Veneto 19.8% (9.6%)(9.6%) 169 1 8.6% E. Romagna 18.6% 2222 582 (18.3%) (22.4%)(22.4%) (9.3%) 681 2 8.1% Piemonte 20.1% (19.8%) 526526 Branches: 5,025 4 6.7% Toscana 6.9% (20.1%)(20.1%) 633 (18.6%) 122 Market Share: 15.5% 2 6.3% Campania 14.9% (12.9%) Ranking: #2 1 5.7% Sicilia 163 29.7% 108 (6.9%) 2 4.6% Puglia 12.8% 98 (9.3%) (17.8%) 4 2.8% Liguria 12.9% 54 699 (8.0%) 3 2.6% Marche 9.3% (27.1%) 46 1 2.3% Friuli V.G. 18.3% (32.6%) 238 3 2.3% Sardegna (14.9%) 8.5% 58 11 179 <6 2.2% Calabria 5.1% (8.5%) (4.4%) (12.8%) 1 2.1% Trentino 9.6% 27 (5.1%) 3 1.8% Abruzzi 8.0% 2 1.4% Umbria 17.8% <5 0.7% Basilicata 4.4% 519 2 0.4% Molise 32.6% (29.7%) 2 0.3% Val d'Aosta 22.4% 2 100% Total 15.5% 7 Source: Annual reports 2006. Banca d’Italia UniCredit Capitalia MS > 15% MS between 10% and 15% MS between 5% and 10% MS < 5% (1) By branches 7 CUSTOMER REACH SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED UniCredit UniCredit + Capitalia Market Share Provinces(1) GDP(2) Provinces(1) GDP(2) 103 100% 103 100% Above 20% 3 (3%) 5% Between 15% and 20% 9 (9%) 17 (17%) 11% 27% 23% Between 10% and 15% 14 (13%) Effective retail 11% 21 (20%) penetration (i.e. 22% mkt share >10%) 75% Between 5% and 10% 32 (31%) in areas representing more 43% 24 (23%) than 75% of 30% household wealth 27 (26%) Between 0% and 5% 42 (41%) 30% 19% 14 (14%) 6% Equal to 0% 3 (3%) 0% 8 (1) Number of provinces and % of total (2) As of December 2005 Source: Bank of Italy as of December 2006 and Istat 8 IT AND BACK OFFICE AS MAIN COST SYNERGY DRIVERS… KEY ACTIONS: Capitalia migration by end of 2008 to Unicredit’s Eurosig (the common IT platform for Commercial Banking) Data Centres consolidation into target Group configuration Consolidation of Capitalia IT functions into UGIS IT A fast, already well-defined integration process Activation of EUROSIG in HVB replanned to 3Q09. No delay in synergies. HVB data center (IT infrastructure) consolidation anticipated by approx. 6 months (to 1H08) ~350 mln (∼45% of total cost synergies) Integration of UPA and Capitalia Informatica, optimizing governance structures Back-office Economies of scale from volumes / IT consolidation (marginal costs) Leverage on competences and structures already set-up in Romania for further cost optimization 9 9 … TOGETHER WITH CENTRAL FUNCTIONS RATIONALIZATION AND ALIGNMENT TO BEST PRACTICES FOR BRANCH NETWORKS AND PRODUCT FACTORIES KEY ACTIONS: Adoption of UniCredit divisional model with light regional HQs Central No duplicated functions Functions Consolidation of procurement activities within Unicredit Global Procurement Model ~160 mln through adoption of common sourcing approach leveraging on global market capability (∼20% of total and consolidated partnership with external suppliers cost synergies) Extensive use of e-auctions (i-Faber) Procurement Office space reduction to align to best practice occupation standards & Real Estate Branch network rationalisation avoiding duplication 9 Asset management / gathering ~160 mln Single competence centres Product 9 Consumer credit and mortgages (∼20% of total and alignment to best 9 Investment banking Factories cost synergies) performer in: 9 Leasing ~120 mln Branch network reorganization in Italy and foreign countries Networks (∼15% of total cost synergies) Alignment to best practice 10 10 ROOM FOR STAFF RIGHTSIZING LEVERAGING ON NATURAL ATTRITION AND EARLY RETIREMENT Solid track-record of positive and “concerted” industrial relations, during a period of significant reorganizations in both Groups Well-defined industrial relation roadmap: 3 28 May: 1st meeting with Unions 3 9 July: start of official negotiations 3 4Q 2007: expected signing of the framework agreement Preliminary analysis on headcount profile shows potential room for optimization Feasibility of early retirement plan Age (1) (2) INDUSTRY (3) 51-55 ~19% ~17% ~17% >55~15% ~7% ~8% Leverage on natural attrition (~1,500 FTEs on average4 in the combined Group in the last 2 years) and on internal mobility (training for staffing needs) 11 (1) As of May 2007 (2) Italian operations, June 2007 (3) Source: ABI. 2006 est. data, based on sample representing 77% of Italian banking system (4) Data related to UniCredit + Capitalia Groups as average of 2005 and 2006 fiscal years 11 DE-RISKING OF BALANCE SHEET BASED ON NPL DISPOSALS AND WORKOUT EXPERTISE Management of ~13 bn of Capitalia’s gross impaired loans will benefit from Unicredit’s expertise in NPLs disposals and workout: i.e. HVB RER portfolio reduced by ~11.5 bn in just two years Capitalia’s coverage ratio on total problem loans and cost of risk consistently improved over the last five years: Coverage ratio on Total Problem Loans, % Cost of Risk(1), bp 56.7% 56.9% 185 47.5% 136 44.2% 43.8% 106 59 63 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Same classification rules on impaired loans for UniCredit and Capitalia Improvements of Capitalia’s risk profile over the last 5 years recognized by the Rating Agencies(2): long term rating upgraded from BBB+ to A by Fitch and from A2 to A1 by Moody’s 12 (1) Calculated as of Year-end Net LLP / Yearly Average RWA for Credit Risks (2) In the 2002 – April 2007 timeframe 12 CAPITALIA DEAL DOES NOT CHANGE COMMITMENT TO CEE AS CONFIRMED BY ATF ACQUISITION ALLOCATED CAPITAL 2006 PRO-FORMA 2007E 2006 UNICREDIT UNICREDIT + CAPITALIA INCLUDING ATF & USB Other 2% Other 2% CEE 15% CEE 12% CEE 17% Italy Austria Austria 38% 12% 10% Austria Italy Italy 10% 48% 46% Germany Germany 28% Germany 25% 35% Additional investments in CEE without changing the original risk profile of the Group 13 13 AGENDA UniCredit today: Group’s shape and positioning Focus on CEE: a growth and value creation story Conclusions 14 14 CEE: A REGION WITH A GOOD MIX OF GROWTH, VOLATILITY AND RISK PROFILE Real GDP Growth (%)1 GDP volatility2 (p.p.) A pattern of strong economic 7.4 growth in the last years (5.5% on 7.0 0.78 average in the last seven years), … 6.0 5.5 4.0 … with lower volatility compared 3.2 0.56 0.48 to other emerging areas in the 1.9 2.1 0.33 world Continued growth expected Avg.
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