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Weekly Review of Financial Markets Week # 15

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Weekly Review of Financial Markets Week # 15 Ukraine: Weekly review of financial markets Week # 15: 11th – 17th April 2005 Ukrainian economy meets the spring with accelerating growth of GDP – real Macroeconomics GDP in March grew 5.2% Y/Y after growth of 4.5%Y/Y in February Ukraine GDP index, % Denominated in US$ Ukraine GDP in March posted a new record gain – it 15 GDP Index (1990 = 100), right scale 100 increased by 32.7% Y/Y thanks to hryvnia appreciation versus US$ against a background of double-digit inflation GDP growth, % Y/Y 10 90 Unemployment rate was unchanged in March at the highest level in 2005 – 3.6% 5 80 01/04/05 01/03/05 Change In 2005 0 NBU reserves, $ mln 11952.6 10 944.3 1008.3 2427.7 70 M3, bn. UAH 140.123 130.942 9.181 14.322 -5 M0, bn. UAH 43.063 41.779 1.284 0.718 60 Balances at banks' -10 correspondent 50 accounts, bn UAH 13.969 9.674 4.295 5.951 -15 -20 40 -25 30 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 eb-05 Jan-05 F Mar-05 Hryvnia official exchange rate versus US$ heading to specified in budget Financial markets average annual rate – US Dollar lost almost 2 kop against hryvnia last week. Hryvnia official exchange rate Even more impressive was its Monday (18 April) slump (-2.1 kop) USDUAH 5.33 EURUAH, right scale Interbank overnight credits became a bit more expensive last week. We do 7.2 not see any room for further decline of rates as well as prerequisites for their 5.32 noticeable increase… Ukrainian stock market outperformed the Russian one again as quotations of 5.31 7 all stocks included in PFTS index basket rose 5.3 2 Average housing price in Kiev confidently makes its way to $1000/m , to be 6.8 reached in May on out assumption 5.29 15/04/05 08/04/05 Change 5.28 6.6 NBU re-financing rate 9.0% 9.0% - “Overnight rate”, NBU 12.0/15.0% 12.0/15.0% - 5.27 USDUAH (NBU) 5.2560 5.2747 -19 points 6.4 KIEBID / OR, % 0.15/1.15 0.14/1.06 +0.01/+0.09 5.26 PFTS 298.54 285.69 +4.50% 5.25 6.2 l 04 y 04 v 04 c 04 g 04 p 04 b 04 b 05 n 04 n 04 n 05 u e e e Ju Apr 04 Apr 05 Oct 04 Ja Ju Ja F Mar 04 F Mar 05 A S No De Ma Demand for OVDP resumed after switching to weekly held auctions – Ministry Bond market of Finance placed 994-days OVDPs for UAH720.28 mln and 4-years OVDPs VAT bonds' effective yield for UAH72.083 mln Series 1, ask 29% VAT bonds' spread has narrowed to 1.5% as bid yield moved lower to 5.68% Series 1, bid 27% Series 2, ask Ukraine 10Y Eurobonds yield spread widened 20 b.p. due to strong demand 25% Series 2, bid for US Treasuries 23% 15/04/05 08/04/05 Change 21% UA Eurobond, % 6.597% 6.552% +45 b.p. 19% 2013 spread 227.8 206.8 +21 b.p. 17% OVDP-16206, yield ask 4.01% 4.01% 0 b.p. 15% OVDP-20406, yield ask 4.01% 4.01% 0 b.p. 13% 11% 9% 7% 5% JSCB “Ukrsotsbank” 3% Financial Instruments Department 4 eb 05 Jul 04 Apr 05 Apr 04 Oct 0 Jan 05 Jun 04 F Mar 05 Tel/fax. +38 044 230 32 31 Aug 04 Sep 04 Nov 04 Dec 04 May 04 www.usb.com.ua 1 / 7 Financial Instruments Department MACROECONOMICS Ukraine GDP index Ukrainian economy meets the spring with accelerating growth of 15 GDP Index (1990 = 100), right 100 GDP – real GDP in March grew 5.2% Y/Y after growth of 4.5%Y/Y scale in February, although it growth pace slowed comparing to that in GDP growth, % Y/Y January (+6.5%). 10 90 Nominal GDP in March totalled UAH29.292 bn ($5.54 bn) and 5 80 UAH79.356 bn in 1Q2005 (UAH64.115 bn a year earlier). st 0 Real GDP in 1 quarter grew 5.4% Y/Y while nominal grew 23.8% 70 Y/Y. -5 60 -10 50 -15 -20 40 -25 30 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 eb-05 Jan-05 F Mar-05 Source: State statistic committee. Calculations: JSCB "Ukrsotsbank" Denominated in US$ Ukraine GDP, mln Denominated in US$ Ukraine GDP in March posted a new record 70 000 40% gain – GDP increased by 32.7% Y/Y due to hryvnia appreciation Change of GDP (US$), % Y/Y, right scale versus US$ against a background of double-digit inflation. 65 000 GDP (US$), 12 months 30% 60 000 20% 55 000 10% 50 000 0% 45 000 -10% 40 000 -20% 35 000 30 000 -30% 25 000 -40% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Source: State statistic committee, Calculations: JSCB "Ukrsotsbank" Unemployment rate, % Unemployment rate, likely reached its maximum in current year 4.2 – as a rule, unemployment peaks in March. Unemployment rate was unchanged in March 2005 at 3.6%. We expect the rate to decline to 3-3.1%% by October. 4 The number of unemployed reduced in March by 600 to 1.019 mln persons as demand for labour noticeably increased – by 21.8 3.8 thousands to 188.9 thousands. At the same time 92.8 thousands of people were employed in 3.6 February by State unemployment office. 3.4 3.2 3 3 4 03 04 0 0 - - - - r-03 r-04 r-05 v v a a a ep-03 ep-04 an-03 an-04 an-05 Jul-03 Jul-04 J J J M M M S No S No May May Source: State statistic committee #15_05 UA_weekly 11’April’2005 – 17’April’2005 Financial Instruments Department FINANCIAL MARKETS Hryvnia official exchange rate Hryvnia official exchange rate versus US$ heading to specified in budget average annual rate – US Dollar lost 5.34 USDUAH almost 2 kop against hryvnia last week. 5.33 EURUAH, right scale 7.2 Hryvnia fluctuated within a range of 8 kop around 6.79 against 5.32 euro. Week result – minus 8 kop for EUR1. 5.31 7 On our opinion an additional pressure on exchange rates is 5.3 made by weekly held auctions for OVDP because main buyers of OVDP are non-residents who have to buy hryvnia 5.29 6.8 to pay for bonds. 5.28 5.27 6.6 5.26 5.25 6.4 5.24 5.23 6.2 5 4 04 04 05 04 05 04 04 04 t 04 r 0 r 0 r 05 r 04 Jul 04 Oc Ap Ap Jun Jan Jan Ma Ma Feb Feb Aug Sep Nov 04 Dec 04 May Source: NBU Interbank overnight credit rates, % Interbank overnight credits became a bit more expensive. 16 KIEBID Since the rates stay at minimal levels ever seen in Ukraine, we do not see any room for further decline of the rates as KIEBOR 14 well as prerequisites for their noticeable increase Bid rates increased by 1 b.p. to 0.15% and offer rates – to 12 1.15%. 10 8 6 4 2 0 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 . 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28 07 14 21 28 04 11 Source: Reuters Quotations of shares included in PFTS Index basket Quotations of all shares included into PFTS Index basket rose (except GLNG) last week. Centrenergo (CEEN, +11.61%), Ukrtelecom (UTEL, Price, $ % change % change +8.75%) and Stirol (+8.2%) have posted the biggest gain among Issuer Code 01/04/05 in 2005 Last week "blue chips". PFTS Index 298.54 15.71% 5.33% Price of shares of Donbasenergo (DOEN, +0.36%) in hryvnia Zaporizhstal ZPST 1.11 8.59% 6.34% were unchanged but price denominated in US$ increased due to considerable hryvnia appreciation. Ukrnafta UNAF 28.35 18.28% 2.78% Stirol STIR 15.70 14.02% 8.20% NPRW NITR 4.66 110.34% 6.86% Ukrtetecom UTEL 0.14 3.78% 8.75% Zakhidenergo ZAEN 27.68 9.93% 3.92% Centrenergo CEEN 0.88 9.18% 11.61% Dniproenergo DNEN 65.16 13.24% 3.37% Kyivenergo KIEN 1.56 40.09% 2.87% Donbasenergo DOEN 4.19 18.59% 0.36% Galnaftogaz (for 1000) GLNG 8.30 -5.90% 0.00% Source: PFTS #15_05 UA_weekly 11’April’2005 – 17’April’2005 Financial Instruments Department PFTS Index vs. RTS Index (31-Dec-04 = 100) Ukrainian stock market outperformed the Russian one (RTS 135 Index) – PFTS Index rose 5.33%. PFTS Index (in US$) Black clouds named Tax administration pressures Russian 130 RTS Index stock market down – huge sum of tax penalties demanded from Anglo-Russian TNK-BP born fears that company may follow 125 Yukos.
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