DOCSLIB.ORG

UKRAINE's GAS SECTOR June 2007

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
UKRAINE's GAS SECTOR June 2007 UKRAINE’S GAS SECTOR Simon Pirani June 2007 [email protected] The contents of this paper are the author’s sole responsibility. They do not necessarily represent the views of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its Members. Copyright © 2007 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (Registered Charity, No. 286084) This publication may be reproduced in part for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies. ISBN 1-901795-63-2 978-1-901795-63-9 ii CONTENTS Foreword vii Acknowledgements viii 1. Introduction......................................................................................................................................1 2. The wider context.............................................................................................................................3 2.1 Independence and slump (1991–1994) 4 2.2 Early attempts at reform (1994–1999) 6 2.3 The economic recovery under Kuchma (1999–2004) 7 2.4 The Orange revolution and its results (2004–2006) 8 2.5 Ukraine’s energy balance and energy strategy 11 2.6 Energy saving issues 15 3. Gas in Ukraine ...............................................................................................................................17 3.1 Gas in Soviet Ukraine 17 3.2 Cheap gas, expensive debts (1991–1994) 18 3.3 Russia seeks control; Ukrainian traders seek rents (1994–1999) 20 3.4 Russia recentralizes, Ukraine reforms (a little) (1999–2004) 21 3.5 Breaking up and making up (2004–06) 23 3.6 Gas prices and subsidies 25 4. Gas supply 2006–2007...................................................................................................................28 4.1 Gas imports 29 4.2 Commercial and trading arrangements for imports of Russian and central Asian gas 2003– 2005 31 4.3 Commercial and trading arrangements for imports 2006–2007: (i) Gazprom and Rosukrenergo 34 4.4 Commercial and trading arrangements for imports 2006-07: (ii) Central Asian supply and prices 35 4.5 Corporate governance controversies in Russo–Turkmen–Ukrainian gas relations 38 4.6 Ukraine’s relationship with central Asian producers 42 4.7 Domestic gas exploration and production 46 4.8 Issues of taxation and upstream terms of access 50 4.9 Possibilities of diversifying supply 52 5. Gas consumption and the domestic gas market .............................................................................54 5.1 The domestic market in 2003–2005 54 iii 5.2 The domestic market from 2006 55 5.3 Regulation of prices, tariffs and trading 58 5.4 Price trends 60 5.5 Wholesale and industrial market developments 61 5.6 Regulated market developments and regional gas companies 64 5.7 Payment issues 67 5.8 Changes in structure of the industry 2006–2007 69 5.9 Gas exports 71 6. The transport network ....................................................................................................................73 6.1 Overview 75 6.2 Storage 78 6.3 Modernization and maintenance 80 6.4 Energy efficiency and wastage 81 6.5 Payment for transit and storage 84 6.6. Discussions on management and control of transit and storage 86 7. Impact of higher gas prices on the Ukrainian economy.................................................................91 8. Conclusions....................................................................................................................................99 8.1 Ukraine’s relationship with Russia: causes and outcomes of January 2006 crisis 99 8.2 Ukraine’s relationship with Russia in future 102 8.3 Future international relations in the gas sphere 104 8.4 Energy strategy and the impact of import price increases 106 8.5 Domestic market reform 107 Appendix 1. Statistical information about natural gas imports and exports ....................................109 Appendix 2. Gaz Ukrainy’s predominant position in the domestic wholesale market until 2005 ..111 Bibliography.....................................................................................................................................112 Newspapers, journals and web sites 115 iv TABLES, MAPS & FIGURES Table 2.1. GDP energy content, compared to the world average ......................................................11 Table 2.2. Energy consumption per capita, 2005...............................................................................11 Table 2.3. Shares of total primary energy supply, by fuel.................................................................12 Table 2.4. Share of total final energy consumption, by sector...........................................................13 Table 2.5. Structure of electricity production by fuel, 1993 and 2004 ..............................................14 Table 2.6. Projections of Ukraine’s energy strategy of consumption of domestic and imported energy resources (millions of tonnes of oil equivalent, MTOE) ...................................................................15 Table 3.1. Soviet gas production by region, 1960–1980 (bcm/year).................................................17 Table 3.2. Prices for natural gas delivered to European consumers, 2006 (including VAT) ............26 Table 3.3. Import prices of gas sold by Gazprom, 2006–2007 ($/mcm) ...........................................27 Table 4.1. Ukraine’s gas balance, 2003–2006 ...................................................................................28 Table 4.2. Average prices for Russian gas exports ($/mcm). ............................................................29 Table 4.3. Prices paid by Naftogaz Ukrainy, Rosukrenergo and Ukrgazenergo (price in $/mcm) ..30 Table 4.4. Ukrainian natural gas production (selected years)............................................................46 Table 4.5. Ukrainian natural gas production in 2005–2006 (bcm) ....................................................47 Table 4.6. Average gas extraction costs, $/mcm................................................................................50 Table 5.1. Consumption of gas during 2003–2006............................................................................54 Table 5.2. Breakdown of gas price paid by industrial customers (prices current in November 2006)59 Table 5.3. Breakdown of gas price paid by residential customers, January 2007 .............................59 Table 5.4. Market prices for industrial customers (net of VAT) 2003–2006 ($)...............................60 Table 5.5. Natural gas tariffs (uah/mcm) set by the NERC ...............................................................60 Table 5.6. Major holders of supply licences, 2006 ............................................................................63 Table 5.7. Business groups that own stakes in regional gas companies ............................................67 Table 5.8. Debts to Naftogaz Ukrainy at 1.10.2006 ..........................................................................68 Table 6.1. Gas transported through Ukraine, bcm (total amounts, and amounts transported pursuant to Naftogaz’s contracts with Gazprom) .................................................................................................77 Table 6.2. Features and capacity of Ukrainian gas storage facilities, 2005.......................................79 Table 6.3. Production and technical use and losses of fuel/energy resources by Naftogaz in 2004 (tonnes of coal equivalent, TCE) ....................................................................................................................82 Table 6.4. Potential energy savings in the Naftogaz group (m TCE) ................................................82 Table 6.5. Estimates of Naftogaz Ukrainy income from gas transit..................................................84 Table 6.6. European gas transit tariffs (euro/cu m/hours/year)..........................................................85 v Table 7.1 Gas balance for the year, selected items ............................................................................92 Table 7.2. Selected companies’ vulnerability to gas price increases.................................................94 Table 7.3. Users of gas within the Metinvest group ..........................................................................95 Table 7.4. Share of gas in fuel mix of thermal generating companies (%)........................................97 Table A1.1. Imports and exports of natural gas, selected figures (bcm/year) .................................109 Table A2.1. Gas consumption in 2005: Gaz Ukrainy’s share of the total .......................................111 Map 1. The Ukrainian Gas Transport Network .................................................................................75 Figure 1. The Ukrainian Domestic Gas Market.................................................................................57 vi Foreword Roughly 20% of Europe’s gas passes through Ukraine and the country has the third largest gas production and the fourth largest gas market in Europe. Yet until January 2006, when the brief curtailment of Russian gas supplies created shock waves across Europe, little attention was paid to the importance of Ukraine and there is still remarkably little easily accessible information about the development of its gas market. This study therefore fills an important gap in the literature
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Committed During the Armed Conflict in Eastern Ukraine Between 2014–2018
    VIOLENT CRIMES Committed During the Armed Conflict in Eastern Ukraine between 2014–2018 Kharkiv Human Rights Publisher 2018 УДК 355.012АТО(477)’’2014/2018’’(047)=111 Н31 THE List OF abbreviations This report was prepared with financial support of AI — Amnesty International; MTOT — Ministry of Temporarily Occupied Terri- tories and Internally Displaced Persons; ATO — Anti-Terrorist Operation; NGO — Non-Governmental Organization CC — Criminal Code of Ukraine; NPU — National Police of Ukraine; CMA — Civil-Military Administration; OTDLR — Occupied Territories of Donetsk and Lu- СMPO — Chief Military Prosecutor’s Office; hansk Regions; СP — Checkpoint; OSCE — Organization for Security and Coopera- CPC — Criminal Procedural Code; tion in Europe; EXCP — Entry-Exit Checkpoint; PLWHA — People Living with HIV/AIDS; DSA — District State Administration; RSA — Regional State Administration; RS — Rome Statute; ECHR — European Convention on Human Rights; Yuriy Aseev, Volodymyr Hlushchenko, Boris Knyrov, Natalia Okhotnikova, Anna Ovdiienko, LNR — the self-proclaimed “Luhansk People’s ECtHR — European Court of Human Rights; Olena Richko, Gennady Shcherbak, Pavlo Shvab, Yanina Smelyanska, Igor Sosonsky, Republic”; Gennadiy Tokarev, Martha Vovk, Anastasia Yegorova, Yevgeniy Zakharov GC — Geneva Convention(s) of 12 August 1949; DNR — the self-proclaimed “Donetsk People’s Н31 Violent Crimes Committed During the Armed Conflict in Eastern Ukraine between 2014–2018 / HRMM — UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission Republic”; compiler Yevgeniy Zakharov; CO “Kharkiv
    [Show full text]
  • Ukraine Media Assessment and Program Recommendations
    UKRAINE MEDIA ASSESSMENT AND PROGRAM RECOMMENDATIONS VOLUME I FINAL REPORT June 2001 USAID Contract: AEP –I-00-00-00-00018-00 Management Systems International (MSI) Programme in Comparative Media Law & Policy, Oxford University Consultants: Dennis M. Chandler Daniel De Luce Elizabeth Tucker MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS INTERNATIONAL 600 Water Street, S.W. 202/484-7170 Washington, D.C. 20024 Fax: 202/488-0754 USA TABLE OF CONTENTS VOLUME I Acronyms and Glossary.................................................................................................................iii I. Executive Summary............................................................................................................... 1 II. Approach and Methodology .................................................................................................. 6 III. Findings.................................................................................................................................. 7 A. Overall Media Environment............................................................................................7 B. Print Media....................................................................................................................11 C. Broadcast Media............................................................................................................17 D. Internet...........................................................................................................................25 E. Business Practices .........................................................................................................26
    [Show full text]
  • Natural-Gas Trade Between Russia, Turkmenistan, and Ukraine
    Asian Cultures and Modernity Research Reports Editorial Board Birgit N. Schlyter (Editor-in-chief) Merrick Tabor (Associate editor) Mirja Juntunen (Associate editor) Johan Fresk (Assistant) International Advisory Board Prof. Ishtiaq Ahmed (Stockholm University, Sweden) Dr. Bayram Balcı (Inst. français d’étude sur l’Asie centrale, Uzbekistan) Dr. Ooi Kee Beng (Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, Singapore) Datuk Prof. Dr. Shamsul A.B. (Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia) The Asian Cultures and Modernity Research Group A plethora of state- and nation-building programmes are being developed in present- day Asia, where governments have to consider the regionality of old ethno-cultural identities. While the cohesive power of traditions must be put into use within a particular nation, that same power challenges its national boundaries. To soften this contradiction, economic and/or political regionalism, in contrast to isolationism and globalism, becomes a solution, suggesting new and exciting routes to modernity. In studies conducted by the Asian Cultures and Modernity Research Group at Stockholm University, sociolinguistic and culture-relativistic perspectives are applied with the support of epistemological considerations from the field of political science. Department of Oriental Languages Stockholm University SE-106 91 Stockholm E-mail: [email protected] ISSN 1651-0666 ISBN 978-91-976907-2-0 Asian Cultures and Modernity Research Report No. 15 Natural-Gas Trade between Russia, Turkmenistan, and Ukraine Agreements and Disputes by Michael Fredholm Department of South and Central Asian Studies Stockholm University Editorial Note The author has written extensively on the history, defence and security policies, and energy sector developments of Eurasia. He also heads the business research company Team Ippeki.
    [Show full text]
  • REQUIEM for DONBAS Three Essays on the Costs of War in Ukraine
    JOHANNES KEPLER UNIVERSITY LINZ Altenberger Str. 69 4040 Linz, Austria www.jku.at, DVR 0093696 REQUIEM FOR DONBAS Three Essays on the Costs of War in Ukraine By Artem Kochnev A Doctoral Thesis submitted at Department of Economics to obtain the academic degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Doctoral Program “PhD Program in Economics” Supervisor and First Examiner Second Examiner em. Univ-Prof. Dr. Michael Landesmann Dr. habil. rer. soc. oec. Robert Stehrer May 2020 Abstract The thesis investigates short- and long-term effects of war on the economy of Ukraine. Specifically, it discusses the impact of separatists’ control and subsequent adverse trade policies on the real economy, responses of stock market investors to battle events, and the effect of conflict intensity on reform progress and institutional change in Ukraine. The thesis finds that the impact of war on the economy is most pronounced on the real economy of the war-torn regions. Whereas separatists’ control caused a decline in economic activity by at least 38%, the thesis does not find evidence supporting that the impact of conflict intensity on asset prices and institutional change in Ukraine was linear in parameters. The thesis explains the lack of the linear relationship between asset price move- ments and conflict intensity by investors’ inattention caused by information overload during the early stages of the conflict. Regarding the possible relationship between con- flict and institutional change, the thesis argues that it was electoral competition, not the conflict dynamics, that had an impact on the decision-making process of the policymak- ers in Ukraine.
    [Show full text]
  • Lazarenko Seeks Political Asylum in U.S
    INSIDE:•A behind-the-scenes look at the certification issue — page 3. •A Washington hearing on “Nations in Transit” — page 4. • Book reviews, book notes — page 8. Published by the Ukrainian National Association Inc., a fraternal non-profit association Vol. LXVII HE No.KRAINIAN 9 THE UKRAINIAN WEEKLY SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 28, 1999 EEKLY$1.25/$2 in Ukraine RukhT Party in crisis ULazarenko seeks politiWcal asylum in U.S. and while there issued a statement that he ence, met with U.S. Deputy Attorney Former PM remains was being treated for a heart ailment. General Eric Holder of the Justice as parliamentary faction After the warrant for his arrest was issued Department on February 23 to discuss the in custody of INS by the Procurator General’s Office, Lazarenko case. According to a press votes to remove Chornovil by Roman Woronowycz authorities asked Interpol on February 20 advisory issued by the Embassy of by Katya Gorchinskaya to have Mr. Lazarenko extradited back to Ukraine in Washington, the group empha- Special to The Ukrainian Weekly NEW YORK — Ukraine’s former Ukraine from wherever he was found to sized to the Justice Department official the Prime Minister Pavlo Lazarenko, belea- be staying. Mr. Mayock said the state of need to have Mr. Lazarenko deported back KYIV – The national-democratic party guered by accusations of improper finan- Mr. Lazarenko’s health remains precarious to Ukraine. Rukh is going through a major crisis: its cial dealings in Ukraine and facing money and that he has been examined by doctors While Mr. Lazarenko remains in INS leader, Vyacheslav Chornovil, has been laundering charges in Switzerland, has during his detention.
    [Show full text]
  • Ukraine's Political Crisis and U.S. Policy Issues
    Order Code RL32691 CRS Report for Congress Received through the CRS Web Ukraine’s Political Crisis and U.S. Policy Issues Updated February 1, 2005 Steven Woehrel Specialist in European Affairs Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade Division Congressional Research Service ˜ The Library of Congress Ukraine’s Political Crisis and U.S. Policy Issues Summary In 2004, many observers believed that Ukraine was at a key period in its transition that could shape its geopolitical orientation for years to come, in part due to presidential elections held on October 31, November 21, and December 26, 2004. In their view, Ukraine could move closer to integration in Euro-Atlantic institutions, real democracy and the rule of law, and a genuine free market economy, or it could move toward a Russian sphere of influence with “managed democracy” and an oligarchic economy. For the past decade, Ukraine’s political scene had been dominated by President Leonid Kuchma and the oligarchic “clans” (regionally based groups of powerful politicians and businessmen) that have supported him. The oligarchs chose Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych as their candidate to succeed Kuchma as President. The chief opposition candidate, former Prime Minister Viktor Yushchenko, was a pro-reform, pro-Western figure seen by many observers as a man of high personal integrity. International observers criticized the election campaign and the first and second rounds of the election as not free and fair, citing such factors as government-run media bias in favor of Yanukovych, abuse of absentee ballots, barring of opposition representatives from electoral commissions, and inaccurate voter lists. Nevertheless, Yushchenko topped the first round of the vote on October 31 by a razor-thin margin over Yanukovych.
    [Show full text]
  • Daily Insight Ukrproduct and XXI Century in the Spotlight
    Focus UKRAINE Scope CAPITAL MARKETS Daily Insight Ukrproduct and XXI Century in the spotlight THURSDAY, 30 APRIL, 2009 RESEARCH INSIGHT Market comment Key rates and indices (as of 29 Apr 2009) Last Daily YTD FX and capital markets yesterday chg1 (%) chg1 (%) The hryvnia weakened towards 8.07/USD as of the end of yesterday after trading Currencies within a thin bound of 8.05-8.07/USD most of the day, according to the Reuters USD/UAH (spot) 8.0700 1.38 3.46 data. The equities shifted broadly higher yesterday, as the PFTS index closed up USD/UAH (1Y NDF) 11.5000 0.00 -14.18 at 333.72 points, up 3.67% compared to the previous session. EUR/USD (spot) 1.3263 0.91 -5.12 Money market Equity market KievPRIME O/N (%) 2.20 20bp -2,078bp KievPRIME 1M (%) 17.10 0bp -668bp XXIC seeks to postpone Eurobond put date to 8 July, 2009 Bond markets As part of its US$175m Eurobond restructuring efforts, XXIC held a conference EMBI+ Ukraine 1,884 0.27 580.14 Equity markets call on 23 April to discuss the proposed restructuring terms. The outcome was PFTS (Ukraine) 333.72 3.67 10.72 twofold: 1) the bondholders representing US$135m in aggregate principal RTS (Russia) 814.78 3.92 28.94 amount have expressed in writing their intention to exercise their put option; and WIG (Poland) 28,273.93 3.50 3.84 2) the bondholders representing the majority of the principal amount have S&P 500 (USA) 873.64 2.16 -3.28 suggested that the company seek a “standstill” to postpone the put exercise date Note: 1) percentage change if not otherwise stated.
    [Show full text]
  • Reforms in Ukraine After Revolution of Dignity
    REFORMS IN UKRAINE AFTER REVOLUTION OF DIGNITY What was done, why not more and what to do next This publicaon was produced with financial Responsibility for the informaon and views set out assistance from the EBRD-Ukraine Stabilisaon and in this publicaon lies enrely with the authors. The Sustainable Growth Mul-Donor Account, the EBRD makes no representaon or warranty, express donors of which are Denmark, Finland, France, or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, informaon set forth in the publicaon. The EBRD Poland, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, has not independently verified any of the informaon the United States of America and the European contained in the publicaon and the EBRD accepts Union, the largest donor. The views expressed herein no liability whatsoever for any of the informaon can in no way be taken to reflect the official opinion contained in the publicaon or for any misstatement of the EBRD or any donor of the account. or omission therein. The publicaon remains the property of the EBRD. REFORMS IN UKRAINE AFTER REVOLUTION OF DIGNITY What was done, why not more and what to do next Editors Ivan Miklos Pavlo Kukhta Contents Foreword 4 Introducon What was done, why not more and what to do next: Ukrainian reforms aer the Revoluon of Dignity 7 Chapter 1 Polical economy of reforms: polical system, governance and corrupon 10 Chapter 2 Macroeconomic policies 35 Chapter 3 Rule of law 48 Chapter 4 Energy policy 75 Chapter 5 Business environment 87 Chapter 6 Land reform 101 Chapter 7 Privasaon and SOE reform 112 Chapter 8 Healthcare reform 132 Chapter 9 Ukraine and the European Union 144 Annex 1 Report on reforms in 2016-17 162 Annex 2 The role of the government and MPs in reform implementaon in Ukraine 167 About SAGSUR (Strategic Advisory Group for Support of Ukrainian Reforms) 173 Glossary of terms 174 Foreword Foreword | 4 Foreword Maeo Patrone and Peter M.
    [Show full text]
  • BWN One Column Study
    Dusting off Ukraine's energy sector Why the country must address inefficiency and pollution at its ageing coal-fired power plants September 2014 Authors list: Ioana Ciuta, CEE Bankwatch Network Ionut Apostol, CEE Bankwatch Network Acknowledgements: Oleg Savitsky, National Ecological Centre of Ukraine Slavka Kutsay, National Ecological Centre of Ukraine Editing: David Hoffman, CEE Bankwatch Network Layout: Sven Haertig-Tokarz, CEE Bankwatch Network This publication has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union. The content of this publication is the sole responsibility of CEE Bankwatch Network and can under no circumstances be regarded as reflecting the position of the European Union. Why Ukraine must address inefficiency and pollution at its ageing coal-fired power plants 1 Contents Main findings........................................................................... 2 Power generation .................................................................... 4 Electricity production............................................................... 5 Coal – a pillar of Ukraine's energy sector................................. 6 Emissions from coal-fired power plants.................................. 7 Electricity trade........................................................................ 11 Policy avenues......................................................................... 12 Adoption of the Energy Strategy of Ukraine until 2030... 12 Ukraine in the Energy Community................................... 12 Zooming in
    [Show full text]
  • Draft Version
    DRAFT VERSION Table of Contents Recent Trends and Patterns in FCPA Enforcement Enforcement Actions and Strategies 1 Statistics 1 Geography & Industries 10 Types of Settlements 12 Elements of Settlements 14 Case Developments 16 Perennial Statutory Issues 18 Jurisdiction 18 Foreign Officials 19 Public International Organizations 19 Parent-Subsidiary Liability 20 Anything of Value 21 Compliance Guidance 23 FCPA Pilot Program 23 Yates Memo – One Year Later 24 Finding the Right Amount of Voluntary Disclosure 25 Effective Internal Controls and Declinations 25 Confidentiality Clauses in Termination Agreements and Other Restrictions on Whistleblowers 25 Slow Compliance Program Rollouts 26 Unusual Developments 27 Trump’s Impact on FCPA Enforcement 27 Biomet DPA Breach 28 DOJ Returns $1.5 Million in Forfeited Proceeds 29 Limits on SEC’s Pursuit of Disgorgement and Declaratory Relief: SEC v. Graham 29 Disclosure of Compliance Monitor Reports: 100Reporters LLC v. DOJ & United States v. HSBC Bank United States, NA 30 Private Litigation 31 i Table of Contents Recent Trends and Patterns in FCPA Enforcement Enforcement in the United Kingdom 32 U.K. Government Creating New “Failure to Prevent” Offences 32 SFO Update – Second UK DPA Approved 32 SFO Admits One-Third Discounts on DPA Penalties Insufficient to Incentivize Self-Reporting and Offers Practical Guidance on DPAs 33 SFO – Continuing Uncertainty Over Approach to Internal Investigations 34 SFO – Former Sweett Group Executive Convicted for Destroying Evidence 35 Conclusion 36 ii Recent Trends and Patterns in FCPA Enforcement The 2016 FCPA enforcement year has left us no shortage of topics to discuss. By nearly any measure, 2016 has been a banner year for FCPA enforcement.
    [Show full text]
  • Cleaning up the Energy Sector
    10 Cleaning Up the Energy Sector Victory is when we won’t buy any Russian gas. —Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk1 Ukraine’s energy sector is well endowed but extremely mismanaged. Since Ukraine’s independence, it has been the main source of top-level corruption, and its prime beneficiaries have bought the state. This long-lasting policy has undermined national security, caused unsustainable public costs, jeopardized the country’s balance of payments, led to massive waste of energy, and capped domestic production of energy. It is difficult to imagine a worse policy. In- stead, conditions should be created so that Ukraine can develop its substantial energy potential and become self-sufficient in coal and natural gas.2 The solution to these problems is no mystery and it has been elaborated in a large literature for the last two decades. To check corruption energy prices need to be unified. That means raising key prices four to five times, which will eliminate the large energy subsidies and stimulate energy saving, while also stimulating domestic production of all kinds of energy. To make this politi- cally possible, social compensation should be offered to the poorest half of the population. The energy sector suffers from many shortcomings, and most of these need to be dealt with swiftly. Otherwise, new rent-seeking interests will evolve, and soon they will become entrenched and once again impossible to defeat. The new government has a brief window of opportunity to address the most important issues. 1. “Ukraina osvoboditsya ot ‘gazovoi zavisimosti’ ot RF cherez 5 let—Yatsenyuk” [“Yatsenyuk: Ukraine Will Free Itself from Gas Dependence on Russia in 5 Years”], Ekonomichna pravda, Sep- tember 8, 2014.
    [Show full text]
  • Impact of Political Course Shift in Ukraine on Stock Returns
    IMPACT OF POLITICAL COURSE SHIFT IN UKRAINE ON STOCK RETURNS by Oleksii Marchenko A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MA in Economic Analysis Kyiv School of Economics 2014 Thesis Supervisor: Professor Tom Coupé Approved by ___________________________________________________ Head of the KSE Defense Committee, Professor Irwin Collier __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ Date ___________________________________ Kyiv School of Economics Abstract IMPACT OF POLITICAL COURSE SHIFT IN UKRAINE ON STOCK RETURNS by Oleksii Marchenko Thesis Supervisor: Professor Tom Coupé Since achieving its independence from the Soviet Union, Ukraine has faced the problem which regional block to integrate in. In this paper an event study is used to investigate investors` expectations about winners and losers from two possible integration options: the Free Trade Agreement as a part of the Association Agreement with the European Union and the Custom Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. The impact of these two sudden shifts in the political course on stock returns is analyzed to determine the companies which benefit from each integration decisions. No statistically significant impact on stock returns could be detected. However, our findings suggest a large positive reaction of companies` stock prices to the dismissal of Yanukovych regime regardless of company`s trade orientation and political affiliation.
    [Show full text]