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Contributions of Economic Growth, Terrestrial Sinks, and Atmospheric Yun and Jeong Carbon Balance Manage (2021) 16:22 https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-021-00186-3 Carbon Balance and Management RESEARCH Open Access Contributions of economic growth, terrestrial sinks, and atmospheric transport to the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the Korean Peninsula Jeongmin Yun and Sujong Jeong* Abstract Background: Understanding a carbon budget from a national perspective is essential for establishing efective plans to reduce atmospheric CO2 growth. The national characteristics of carbon budgets are refected in atmospheric CO 2 variations; however, separating regional infuences on atmospheric signals is challenging owing to atmospheric CO2 transport. Therefore, in this study, we examined the characteristics of atmospheric CO2 variations over South and North Korea during 2000–2016 and unveiled the causes of their regional diferences in the increasing rate of atmos- pheric CO2 concentrations by utilizing atmospheric transport modeling. 1 Results: The atmospheric CO2 concentration in South Korea is rising by 2.32 ppm year− , which is more than the 1 globally-averaged increase rate of 2.05 ppm year− . Atmospheric transport modeling indicates that the increase in domestic fossil energy supply to support manufacturing export-led economic growth leads to an increase of 0.12 1 ppm year− in atmospheric CO2 in South Korea. Although enhancements of terrestrial carbon uptake estimated from 1 both inverse modeling and process-based models have decreased atmospheric CO2 by up to 0.02 ppm year− , this decrease is insufcient to ofset anthropogenic CO2 increases. Meanwhile, atmospheric CO2 in North Korea is also 1 increasing by 2.23 ppm year− , despite a decrease in national CO2 emissions close to carbon neutrality. The great increases estimated in both South Korea and North Korea are associated with changes in atmospheric transport, including increasing emitted and transported CO2 from China, which have increased the national atmospheric CO2 1 1 concentrations by 2.23 ppm year− and 2.27 ppm year− , respectively. Conclusions: This study discovered that economic activity is the determinant of regional diferences in increasing atmospheric CO2 in the Korea Peninsula. However, from a global perspective, changes in transported CO2 are a major driver of rising atmospheric CO2 over this region, yielding an increase rate higher than the global mean value. Our fndings suggest that accurately separating the contributions of atmospheric transport and regional sources to the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations is important for developing efective strategies to achieve carbon neutral- ity at the national level. Background Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have risen owing to an increase in anthropogenic CO2 emissions, which out- *Correspondence: [email protected] Department of Environmental Planning, Graduate School weigh natural CO2 uptake [1, 2]. To mitigate anthropo- of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic genic climate change resulting from rising atmospheric of Korea CO2 concentrations, countries around the world have © The Author(s) 2021. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http:// creat iveco mmons. org/ licen ses/ by/4. 0/. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http:// creat iveco mmons. org/ publi cdoma in/ zero/1. 0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data. Yun and Jeong Carbon Balance Manage (2021) 16:22 Page 2 of 11 pledged eforts to monitor and reduce their CO 2 emis- including both anthropogenic and natural components sions through the establishment of the United Nations [17–21]. Long-term measurements show that atmos- Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) pheric CO2 concentrations in East Asia are rising faster in 1992 [3]. Despite international commitment, over than the global average owing to the rapid economic the last few decades, global anthropogenic CO 2 emis- growth of East Asian countries [19, 22]. Satellite meas- sions have increased following the worst-case scenario, urements have estimated that the column-integrated in which no action is taken to mitigate carbon emissions CO2 concentrations in major cities (e.g., Seoul) could be [4]. Numerous studies have warned that the increase in approximately 2 ppm higher than those near non-source global average temperature should be limited to 1.5 ℃ (or sink) regions [21, 23]. However, as atmospheric CO 2 above pre-industrial levels to avoid the risk of irreversible can be signifcantly afected by atmospheric circulation consequences of climate change [5]. Currently, more than and regional surface CO2 fuxes, it is difcult to moni- 110 nations participating in the UNFCCC have com- tor changes in the regional carbon cycle solely based mitted to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 (or 2060), on observations. Te chemical transport model (CTM) including all East Asian countries, which are responsi- has been used to identify for the drivers of atmospheric ble for more than half of the global anthropogenic CO2 CO2 variations by separating the infuences of regional emissions [6, 7]. Individual climate change mitigation sources and sinks on CO 2 variations [19, 24, 25]. Using policies have been adopted by considering each country’s CTM simulations, Fu et al. [25] estimated that terrestrial economic and natural conditions. Terefore, understand- CO2 fux and fossil fuel CO 2 emissions account for up to ing the characteristics of national carbon budgets and 14 and 17 % of the interannual variations of atmospheric their impact on atmospheric CO 2 changes is essential for CO2 over East Asia, respectively. Yun et al. [19] showed establishing efective plans to achieve this goal. that the observed increasing seasonal diference in Korea is divided into the Republic of Korea (South atmospheric CO2 in South Korea results from enhanced Korea) and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea terrestrial carbon uptake. Terefore, CTM simulations (North Korea). Tese countries share similar climate could provide help in the interpretation of observed conditions and natural ecosystems considering their geo- atmospheric signals related to changes in regional carbon graphic proximity, but they have diferent economic and budgets. social histories. In South Korea, the gross domestic prod- In this study, we investigated the characteristics of uct (GDP) has gradually risen since industrialization in atmospheric CO2 variations over South and North Korea the 1970 s, and has increased by 160 % in the last two dec- during 2000–2016 and identifed the causes of their ades (2000–2016) [8]. Further, forested areas, accounting regional diferences in the increasing rates of atmospheric for 63 % of the country, remained constant with a slight CO2 concentrations. To accomplish this, we frst com- decrease (0.2 %) during 2001–2016 due to sustained pared the atmospheric CO 2 variations in South Korea, national forest management according to remote sens- North Korea, and the global mean estimated from CTM ing statistics [9]. Conversely, in North Korea, the GDP simulations. Ten, changes in the national surface CO2 increased by 91 % from 2000 to 2016 after an economic fuxes and energy consumption structure in both coun- collapse in the 1990s; the average GDP ($25 billion) tries were examined by analyzing statistical datasets and accounted for 2.3 % of South Korea’s GDP ($1053 billion) estimates of process-based modeling and inverse mod- during the period [10]. Te previous economic collapse eling. Finally, we derived the contributions of changes in led to severe deforestation to secure food and fuel, caus- atmospheric transport, as well as regional anthropogenic ing the forested areas, accounting for 60 % of the country, and terrestrial CO2 fuxes, on increasing atmospheric to decrease by 1.3 % during 2001–2016 despite interna- CO2 concentrations over each country based on a set of tional eforts toward forest recovery [9, 11]. Te difering CTM simulations. Te results of the analysis provided a changes in the economic and natural ecosystems between comprehensive understanding of the role of economic these countries can provide insight into the varying car- activities, terrestrial ecosystems, and atmospheric trans- bon dynamics according to human activities and national port in increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations at the policies, despite their similar climate and environmental national level. changes. Results Spatiotemporal variations in atmospheric CO2 con- centrations refect the regional characteristics of carbon Regional diference in atmospheric CO2 trends sources and sinks [12–14]. Because of the limited spa- Te CTM modeling estimated that the global mean − 1 tial coverage of current tower-based surface CO2 fux CO2 concentration
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