Hemisphere Focus
HEMISPHERE FOCUS Volume XIII, Issue 2 June 28, 2005 A Guide to the July 3, 2005, Mexico State Gubernatorial Election George W. Grayson Introduction Analysts have labeled the Mexico State (Edomex) gubernatorial showdown a “critical indicator,” “overture,” and “preamble” with respect to the 2006 presidential contest. Although social scientists have discredited the concept of “bell weather” jurisdictions,1 Edomex represents a critical confrontation in anticipation of next year’s presidential “Super Bowl.” Five reasons buttress this conclusion about the state: (1) it embraces the nation’s largest population and largest number of voters; (2) since 1993 a tri-party system has prevailed—with the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), the National Action Party (PAN), and the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD)—dominating the balloting; (3) despite gyrations in final tallies, PRI reverses in Edomex—the late-1996 municipal face-offs, for example— foreshadowed the party’s losing control of the Chamber of Deputies in 1997; (4) a synergism links Edomex to the Federal District (Distrito Federal–D.F.)—many citizens of the two entities read the same newspapers, watch identical television programs, work in the same offices, factories, and stores, and bemoan the common problems of violent street crime, traffic gridlock, pollution, inadequate housing, and unemployment; and (5) opinion leaders like domestic and foreign journalists, many of whom live in or near the state, assign great importance to what happens in Edomex. Not only is the state the largest in terms of population and voters, it also represents a microcosm of the country. Shaped like a high-heel lady’s shoe with the toe pointing southwest, it wraps around most of Mexico City.
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