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The Policy World Meets Academia: Designing U.S. Policy Toward Russia

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The Policy World Meets Academia: Designing U.S. Policy Toward Russia DESIGNING U.S. POLICY TOWARD RUSSIA AMERICAN ACADEMY OF ARTS & SCIENCES RUSSIA AMERICAN ACADEMY OF ARTS DESIGNING U.S. POLICY TOWARD The Policy World Meets Academia: Designing U.S. Policy toward Russia Edited by Timothy Colton, Timothy Frye, and Robert Legvold AMERICAN ACADEMY OF ARTS & SCIENCES AMERICAN ACADEMY OF ARTS & SCIENCES The Policy World Meets Academia: Designing U.S. Policy toward Russia The Davis Center American Academy The Harriman Institute Harvard University of Arts & Sciences Columbia University Please direct inquiries to: American Academy of Arts and Sciences 136 Irving Street Cambridge, MA 02138-1996 Telephone: 617-576-5000 Fax: 617-576-5050 Email: [email protected] Web: www.amacad.org The Policy World Meets Academia: Designing U.S. Policy toward Russia Edited by Timothy Colton, Timothy Frye, and Robert Legvold © 2010 by the American Academy of Arts and Sciences All rights reserved. Cover image courtesy of Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs (http://www.carnegiecouncil.org) ISBN#: 0-87724-085-X The American Academy of Arts and Sciences is grateful to Carnegie Corporation of New York for launching and supporting the Designing U.S. Policy toward Russia initiative. The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the authors and are not necessarily those of Carnegie Corporation of New York or the Officers and Fellows of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. Contents vii Acknowledgments 1 Introduction Timothy Colton, Timothy Frye, and Robert Legvold 7 Part I Assessing the Russian Challenge to U.S. Policy 8 Chapter 1 Russia and the Recent Evolution of the SCO: Issues and Challenges for U.S. Policy Alexander Cooley 20 Chapter 2 Living in Alternate Universes: Divergent Narratives and the Challenge of U.S.-Russia Relations since the Cold War Ronald R. Krebs 37 Chapter 3 Russia, the Post-Soviet Space, and Challenges to U.S. Policy Jeffrey Mankoff 50 Chapter 4 Assessing the Russian Challenge to U.S. Policy Thomas Graham 58 Part II Formulating U.S. Policy toward Russia 59 Chapter 5 Principled Integration: A U.S. Policy Response to the Economic Challenge Posed by Russia Samuel Charap 70 Chapter 6 Conditional Property and Regional Political Cultures: Challenges for U.S. Foreign Policy in the Post-Soviet Space Keith A. Darden 79 Chapter 7 Putin’s Peers H. E. Goemans 92 Chapter 8 Formulating U.S. Policy toward Russia Steven Pifer 96 Part III Addressing the Obstacles to U.S. Russia Policy 97 Chapter 9 American Foreign Policy toward Russia: Is a U-Turn, or Any Turn, Possible? Daniel W. Drezner 108 Chapter 10 Russia’s War on Terrorism Monica Duffy Toft 120 Contributors Acknowledgments This publication is part of the American Academy’s project on U.S. Policy to- ward Russia, which is guided by the Academy’s Committee on International Security Studies. The project is supported by a generous grant from Carnegie Corporation of New York. We are grateful to the Corporation for its support and to Deana Arsenian, Vice President of Carnegie International Programs, for her continued interest and advice. The essays that appear in this volume are the product of a seminar held at the American Academy on January 29, 2010, which was sponsored by the Academy and cosponsored by the Davis Center at Harvard University and the Harriman Institute at Columbia University. The Academy thanks especially Robert Legvold, principal leader of the U.S. Policy toward Russia project, for his guidance of the project and for serving as an editor of this publication. We are grateful to his coeditors, Timothy Colton and Timothy Frye, and to Rachel Salzman, the program assistant. Thank you also to Academy staff Kimberly Durniak, Phyllis Bendell, Micah Buis, Erica Dorpalen, and Scott Wilder in helping to produce this pub- lication. Most of all, we express our gratitude to the contributors for bringing their knowledge and insight to bear on these important and timely issues. Leslie Berlowitz Chief Executive Officer and William T. Golden Chair American Academy of Arts and Sciences John D. Steinbruner Professor of Public Policy, University of Maryland Director, Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland (CISSM) Chair, Committee on International Security Studies, American Academy of Arts and Sciences ACKNOWLEDGMENTS vii Introduction Timothy Colton, Timothy Frye, and Robert Legvold GENESIS OF THE PROJECT During the Cold War—and never more than in its first decades—scholars studying the Soviet Union and American policy-makers were so tightly linked that the boundaries between the two communities often blurred.1 Each needed the other as they struggled to understand how the Soviet system worked, what motivated the regime’s behavior at home and abroad, and which trends were most likely to shape the country’s further evolution. For both groups, the So- viet Union stood at the center of their concerns: for some academics because the Soviet Union was, other than the United States, the key country in the international system they studied; for others because the USSR was governed by a single-party regime that was the prototype for many others; and for policy- makers because the Soviet Union dominated the U.S. foreign policy agenda. With the fall of the Soviet Union, academics and policy-makers at first were equally at sea and turned to each other for counsel. But gradually over the last decade-and-a-half, the two communities have drifted away from one another. In part the distance between the two has grown because much of the current scholarly work on Russia and former Soviet countries addresses disci- plinary rather than policy questions. At the same time, the demise of Com- munism has removed the puzzle that lay at the heart of Soviet studies and that gave the field unusual weight in the social sciences. But it is also because pol- icy-makers reserve less of their attention for Russia and Eurasia, and, when they do design strategies for the region, they have a widening array of groups and institutions beyond the university to turn to for insight. In the broadest sense, academics still contribute to the marketplace of ideas relevant to public policy through their research and by educating future government officials. However, scholars devote much less time to writing about policy than in the past, while policy-makers and their staffs spend much less time reading aca- demic work. Compounding the problem, there is a larger gap in style, meth- ods, and topics of interest than existed before. Some scholars have embraced the dissociation between their work and the policy process as a small price to pay for encouraging academics to look beyond short-term policy issues and to focus on fundamental questions. No one would want to return to the research priorities and politically charged debates of the Cold War years; still, academics could contribute more to de- 1. David Engerman, Know Your Enemy: The Rise and Fall of America’s Soviet Experts (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2009). INTRODUCTION 1 liberation over policy than they currently do, using the best tools of social science in the process. At a minimum, an opportunity to foster a more pro- ductive relationship between scholars and policy-makers is being squandered. Unfortunately, the large and increasing distance between the academic and policy-making communities limits our collective capacity to understand complex international issues, such as U.S.-Russia relations. It diminishes the quality of debate on U.S.-Russia relations by depriving the discourse of nu- anced and sophisticated analyses of both U.S. and Russian foreign policy. In addition, there is a growing dearth of scholars studying the foreign policy of Russia and the other states of Eurasia, a shortage especially pronounced in the younger generation. Academics trained after 1989 have focused primarily— almost exclusively, in fact—on the domestic and comparative politics of the former Soviet states and have paid far less attention to foreign policy and in- ternational relations. As a result, the number of academics working on secu- rity and other foreign policy issues in the region is too small to generate the knowledge base required by the policy community. THE AGENDA The essays that follow are not intended simply to shed light on different as- pects of U.S. policy toward Russia. They were inspired by a desire to grapple directly with the problem raised by academia’s increasing distance from the policy world. Hence, we invited academics—in this case, the younger among them—to address the broad basic foreign policy tasks that policy-makers face. Their work falls into three categories: assessing the essential nature of the challenge contemporary Russia poses for U.S. policy; designing an effective U.S. response to this challenge; and dealing with the practical bureaucratic and political obstacles in the formation and implementation of U.S. policy to- ward Russia. The three topic areas in turn provide an organizational structure for this volume. We carefully selected eight scholars from the ranks of Russia specialists and the general field of international relations theory and asked each to take one of the three major topics. By drawing on what they saw as the insights from the discipline, they were urged to analyze an aspect of the problem in ways that would be useful to a policy-maker. Originally, the contributors presented their work at a seminar held at the American Academy of Arts and Sciences on January 29, 2010, attended by leading academic figures in Russian and international relations studies. To launch the discussion, we asked three experienced policy-makers to respond to what they had read and heard. The responses from two of the three—Thomas Graham, the senior Russia advisor to President George W.
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