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V·1\Il·1 University Microfilms International a Bell & Howellinformalion Company 300 North Zeeb Road Human responses to past climate, environment, and population in two Mogollon areas of New Mexico. Item Type text; Dissertation-Reproduction (electronic) Authors Shaw, Chester Worth, Jr. Publisher The University of Arizona. Rights Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author. Download date 07/10/2021 18:23:21 Link to Item http://hdl.handle.net/10150/186167 INFORMATION TO USERS This manuscript has been reproduced from the microfilm master. UMI films the text directly from the original or copy submitted. Thus, some thesis and dissertation copies are in typewriter face, while others may be from any type of computer printer. The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. Broken or indistinct print, colored or poor quality illustrations and photographs, print bleed through, substandard margins, and improper alignment can adversely affect reproduction. In the unlikely event that the author did not send UMI a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if unauthorized copyright material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Oversize materials (e.g., maps, drawings, charts) are reproduced by sectioning the original, beginning at the upper left-hand corner and continuing from left to right in equal sections with small overlaps. Each original is also photographed in one exposure and is included in reduced form at the back of the book. Photographs included in the original manuscript have been reproduced xerographically in this copy. Higher quality 6" x 9" black and white photographic prints are available for any photographs or illustrations appearing in this copy for an additional charge. Contact UMI directly to order. V·1\Il·1 UniverSity Microfilms International A Bell & Howellinformalion Company 300 North Zeeb Road. Ann Arbor. M148106-1346 USA 313.'761-4700 800.'521-0600 Order Number 9322661 Human responses to past climate, environment, and population in two Mogollon areas of New Mexico Shaw, Chester Worth, Jr., Ph.D. The University of Arizona, 1993 Copyright ©1993 by Shaw, Chester Worth, Jr. All rights reserved. V·M·I 300 N. Zeeb Rd. Ann Arbor, MI 48106 1 HUMAN RESPONSES TO PAST CLIMATE, ENVIRONMENT, AND POPULATION IN TWO MOGOLLON AREAS OF NEW MEXICO by Chester W. Shaw Jr. Copyright @) C.W. Shaw Jr. 1993 A Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of the DEPARTMENT OF ANTHROPOLOGY In partial Fulfillment of the Requirements For the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY In the Graduate College THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA 1993 2 THE UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA GRADUATE COLLEGE As memoers of the Final Examination Committee, we certify that we have read the dissertation prepared by Che~ter w. Shaw Jr. entitled Human Responses to Past Climate, Environment, and Population in Two :HogolIon Areas of New Mexico and recommend that it be accepted as fulfilling the dissertation requirement for the Degree of Philosophy J. Jefferson Reid Date . Donald A. Grayhil 3h~h3 ;/ Dite ) Jeffrey S. Dean ~ ~~ Date Date Date Final approval and acceptance of this dissertation is contingent upon the candidate1s submission of the final copy of the dissertation to the Graduate College. I hereoy certify that I have read this dissertation prepared under my direction and recommend that it be accepted as fulfilling the dissertation requirement. 3 STATEMENT BY AUTHOR This dissertation has been submitted in partial fufillment of requirements for an advanced degree at the University of Arizona and is deposited in the University Library to be made available to borrowers under rules of the Library. Brief quotations from this dissertation are allowable without special permission, provided that accurate acknowledgment of source is made. Request for permission for extended quotation from or reproduction of this manuscript in whole or in part may be granted by the copyright holder. Signed: CI..±. U. Sl-J ~, 4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I wish to thank each member of my committee for his careful and thoughtful reading of this document. As co­ chairs, Drs. J. Jefferson Reid and Donald A. Graybill, provided the kind of organization and comments that immensely improved the final product. Dr. Dean read all chapters, edited where appropriate, and offered comments integral to final assessments. Finally, I wish to thank my wife, Mary Bernard-Shaw, for her assistance in editing my frequently protracted prose. 5 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS ••••••••••••••••••.•••••..••••• B LIST OF TABLES ••••••••••••.••.••••••••.••...••••.•.. 9 ABSTRACT ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 11 1. INTRODUCTION ••••••.•••..•••.•••••••.•.••.•••••.•••• 12 Research Significance ••.••••••••••••••••••••.• 14 2. OUTLINING THE ANASAZI BEHAVIORAL MODEL •••.•.•••.••• 17 Past Environment on the Plateuas: Human Responses to Low and High Frequency Variations •••..••.••••••••••••••.••• 27 3. PAST ENVIRONMENT ON THE SOUTHERN PLATEAUS: DATA SOURCES AND INFORMATION ••••••••••••• 30 Low Frequency Paleoenvironmental Data ••••••••• 36 Sources Alluvial Hydrologic Records for the Southern Colorado Plateaus •••••••••••••••••••• 39 Palynological Records for the Southern Colorado Plateaus •••••••••••••••••••• 51 High Frequency Paleoenvironmental Data Sources for the Southern Colorado Plateaus: Tree Ring Chronologies •••••••••••••••••••••••• 57 4. A TEST OF THE BEHAVIORAL MODEL IN NEW MEXICO •••••.. 6! Methodological Considerations for Developing July P.D.S.I. Estimates •••••••••••• 6B Assessing the Spatial Applicability of the July P.D.S.I. Estimates ••.•••••••••••••••••••• 76 The Nature of Summer Drought in the Mimbres and Pinelawn-Reserve Areas •••••••••••• BO 6 5. PREHISTORIC CULTURE SEQUENCES FOR THE MIMBRES AND PINELAWN-RESERVE MOGOLLON AREAS •••••••••••••••• 89 Introduction .................................. 89 Late Archaic Period •••••••••••••..••••••..•.•• 93 Mogollon Initiation (A.D. 200-600) •••••••••••• 99 Mogollon Expansion and Differentiation (A.D. 700-1150) •••••••••••••• 107 Mogollon Pueblo Reorganization (A.D. 1150 - late 1300s) ••••••••.•.•.•••.••.• 117 6. EVALUATING SUMMER DROUGHT ESTIMATES AND ARCHAEOLOGICAL RECORDS FOR THE MIMBRES AND PINELAWN-RESERVE AREAS ••.•••.••••••••.••••••••.••• 122 Reviewing the Anasazi Behavioral Model •.••••. 123 Intensification in Agricultural Production in the Mimbres and Pinelawn-Reserve Areas •••• 125 TheoreticalOrientation •••••••••••••••••••••• 126 The Maize Plant: Climatic and Nutrient Requirements •••••••••••••••••••••••• 128 Mogollon Initiation (A.D. 200-600) ••••••••••• 141 Nature of Alliance Networks and Horizon Sununary .................•....... 148 Mogollon Expansion and Differentiation (A.D. 700-1150) •••••••••••••• 151 Mimbres Mogollon Area ..•.•.••••••••••••• 152 Pinelawn-Reserve Area •••••••••••••.••••• 157 Nature of Alliance Networks and Horizon Summary ••••••••••••••••••••••••• 164 Mogollon Pueblo Reorganization (A.D. 1150 - late 1300s) ••••••••••••••••••• 171 Pinelawn-Reserve Area .•••••••••••••••••• 172 7 Nature of Alliance Networks and Horizon Summary •••••••••••••••••••••••.• 179 7. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ••••••••.•••••••••••••••••• 185 8. APPENDIX A: TREATMENT OF TREE RING AND CLIMATE DATA SETS USED IN THE STUDY ••••••••••• 196 Sample Size criteria and Outliers ••••••• 209 ARMA Modeling the Tree Ring Data Series .................................. 211 9 • REFERENCES •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 226 8 LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS Figure 4.1 Tree-Ring Stations Currently in the Paleoclimate Network Established by the Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research in Tucson, Arizona ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 63 Figure 4.2 Grid of the North American Southwest used by Laboratory of Tree Ring Personnel for Organizing Archaeological and Living Tree Chronologies •.•••••••••••••• 66 Figure 4.3 Back-to-back Summer Drought Intervals for the Mimbres and Pinelawn-Reserve Areas .••••••.••••••••••••••..••.•••.••.••••• 81 Figure 4.4 Century-long Summer Drought Estimates for the Mimbres and Pinelawn-Reserve Areas ••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• 85 Figure 6.1 Contour Map of Winter Precipitation Averages for Seven Climate Regions in the Central and Southern Southwest •••••• 132 Figure 6.2 Contour Map of Summer Precipitation Averages for Seven Climate Regions in the Central and Southern Southwest •••••• 133 Figure 6.3 Z-scores for Winter and Summer Moisture Amounts for Seven Climate Regions in the Central and Southern Southwest •••••• 135 Figure 6.4 Back-to-back Summer Drought Episodes for the Period from A.D. 1000 Through the Mid-1200s in the Pinelawn-Reserve Area ..........•.......................•.... 162 Figure A.l Actual July P.D.S.I. Values for the Mimbres Area Plotted Against Standard Normal Variant Estimates and Final Estimates .................................. 214 Figure A.2 Actual July P.D.S.I. Values for the Pinelawn-Reserve Area Plotted Against Standard Normal Variant Estimates and Final Estimates ••.•••••••••••••••••••.••••• 215 9 LIST OF TABLES Table 4.1 Archaeological and Living Tree Chronologies in the Laboratory's Paleoclimate Network ••••••.•••••••••••••••••• 65 Table 4.2 Palmer Drought Severity Index (P.D.S.I.) Values and Climatic Consequences .-.•••••••••••• 67 Table 4.3 Episodes of Protracted (3 and + Years) Back-to-Back Summer Drought in the Mimbres and Pinelawn-Reserve Areas during the Prehistoric Era •••••••.••••••••••••••••••
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