WORKING PAPER ITLS-WP-19-21

Overview of Australian Urban Road Tunnels

By Peter Ridley

Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies, University of Sydney Business School, NSW 2006, Australia

November 2019

ISSN 1832-570X

INSTITUTE of TRANSPORT and LOGISTICS STUDIES The Australian Key Centre in Transport and Logistics Management

The University of Sydney Established under the Australian Research Council’s Key Centre Program.

NUMBER: Working Paper ITLS-WP-19-21

TITLE: Overview of Australian Urban Road Tunnels

“Ask not for whom the road tolls; it tolls for thee.”

Bowdlerised from: John Donne [1624]; Devotions Upon Emergent Occasions, Meditation XVII.

This paper collates data (location, size, cost of construction, ABSTRACT: maintenance and operation) on long Australian urban road tunnels exceeding 1 km in length with opening dates up to 2020. An understanding of traffic behaviour, demand and toll revenue leads to estimations of return on investment and costs. Operating constraints and parameters; traffic flow, pollution and energy consumption are used to evaluate the performance of the tunnels along with their safety (accidents and fire) record.

EY WORDS:

AUTHORS: Ridley

CONTACT: INSTITUTE OF TRANSPORT AND LOGISTICS STUDIES (H73) The Australian Key Centre in Transport and Logistics Management The University of Sydney NSW 2006 Australia Telephone: +612 9114 1824 E-mail: [email protected] Internet: http://sydney.edu.au/business/itls

DATE: November 2019

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Introduction

Urban road tunnels in Australia have been the subject of considerable public controversy regarding cost, efficacy and safety. The purpose of this document is to collect data relevant to these issues for major Australian road-tunnels including; • tunnel location and geometry, • cost of construction, maintenance and operation, • traffic demand, toll revenue and return on investment, • operating constraints and performance parameters; traffic flow, pollution, energy consumption, • safety; traffic accidents and fire incidents.

Sources of data are generally from public domain documents, which may be susceptible to problems with currency, rounding errors and interpretation. Data highlighted in red text are identified as being estimates.

Tunnel inventory

Road tunnels examined in this paper exceed one kilometre in length and are located in Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne [55,71]. They are generally procured through public-private partnerships where the public sector provides a reference design and the facility is built, owned, operated by the private partner and transferred to public ownership after the concession period (up to 40 years) has expired. Superannuation funds own a large proportion of the equity in the toll-road operating companies for the following reasons [48];

• Diversification: there is a low observed correlation over time with other asset classes. • Illiquidity premium: unlisted infrastructure assets are illiquid with constrained exit options, providing an illiquidity premium for investors. • Inflation protection: infrastructure assets typically generate cashflows with built-in escalation regimes that protect against inflation. • Returns: investment returns have compared favourably with other asset classes over time. • Stable, defensive assets with low volatility: due to inelastic demand, most infrastructure assets can protect against an economic downturn, with higher average returns than traditional defensive assets such as cash or bonds.

Table 1 shows that Transurban has a dominant position in the ownership and operation of these assets. Notable exceptions are; (1) Sydney Harbour Tunnel; Kumagi Gumi (50%), Transfield (25%), Tenix (25%) (2) M5 East; Road and Marine Services (100%), is the only currently publicly owned, un-tolled tunnel. (3) Queensland Motorways [81], (who owned, CLEM7, Go Between Bridge, Gateway Motorway and Sir Leo Hielscher Bridges; the Gateway Extension, Logan Motorway and Legacy Way) was sold in 2014 for $7.1 billion to a consortium comprising Transurban (62.5%), AustralianSuper & Tawreed Investments (37.5%). (4) NorthConnex will receive $0.8 billion of State and Federal Government funding; remainder Transurban (50%), Canada Pension Plan & QIDC (50%). (5) Eastlink; ConnectEast was refinanced is now owned by Horizon Roads (100%); consortium of eight overseas superannuation and pension funds.

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M4 East has been recently opened and NorthConnex tunnel is currently under construction, where opening date given in Table 1 is only approximate. In various stages of planning and construction are; five more Sydney tunnel projects (New M5, M4-M5 Link, Western Harbour Crossing, Northern Beaches Link and F6 Extension) as well as Melbourne’s Westgate and North East Link. These tunnels have proposed opening dates later than 2020 and are not analysed in this paper.

Several of the tunnels noted in Table 1 are a combination of two and three lane sections; these are designated as having a width of 2.5 lanes. Figure 1 gives a graphical view of the relative size (lane- km; excluding ramps) of each of the tunnels studied. Figure 2, Figure 3 and Figure 4 show the routes of each of the tunnels along with adjoining toll-roads, both existing and proposed.

Table 1. Australian Urban road tunnels exceeding 1 km in length with opening dates up to 2020.

Transurban Open Length Size % km lanes lane-km Sydney Harbour 0 Aug-92 2.8 2 11.2 Eastern distributor 75.1 Dec-99 1.7 2.5 8.5 M5 East 0 Dec-01 3.8 2 15.2 SYDNEY Cross City 100 Jun-05 2.1 2 8.4 Lane Cove 100 Mar-07 3.5 2.5 17.5 M4 East 51 Jul-19 5.5 2.5 27.5 NorthConnex 50 Jan-20 9.0 31 54.0 Clem7 62.5 Mar-10 4.8 2 19.2 BRISBANE Airport Link 62.5 Jul-12 5.7 2.5 28.5 Legacy Way 62.5 Jun-15 4.6 2 18.4 Citylink (Burnley & 3.4 MELBOURNE Domain)2 100 Dec-00 1.6 3 15 Eastlink (Melba & Mullum-Mullum) 0 Jun-08 1.6 3 9.6

1 NorthConnex is built with three lanes in each tube, however only two lanes will be marked on opening. 2 One way tunnels; Burnley 3.4km eastbound & Domain 1.6km westbound

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Figure 1. Tunnel size; lane-km.

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Figure 2. Sydney tollways; current and future proposals. [71]

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Figure 3. Brisbane tollways; current and future proposals. [71]

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Figure 4. Melbourne tollways; current and future proposals. [71]

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Construction

Construction costs of road tunnels are outlined in Table 2. Original costs have been escalated via the CPI index to give an equivalent $2018 cost given in the second column.

Table 2. Construction costs. Original cost Current cost $2018 Comment $bn $bn $M/lane-km3 RH= road header TBM=tunnel boring machine Sydney Harbour $0.55 $1.05 $ 93 submerged tube Eastern Distributor $0.73 $1.20 $141 RH stacked tunnel, eight on-off ramps M5 East $0.80 $1.20 $ 79 RH design “issues”4, three on-off ramps Cross City $0.68 $0.93 $111 RH four on-off ramps Lane Cove $1.10 $1.44 $ 82 RH two on-off ramps M4 East $3.80 $3.80 $138 RH under construction, four on-off ramps NorthConnex $3.00 $3.00 $ 56 RH no on-off ramps Clem7 $3.20 $3.81 $198 TBM one on-off ramp Airport Link $5.535 $6.25 $219 RH & TBM six on-off ramps Legacy Way $1.50 $1.58 $ 86 TBM no on-off ramps Citylink $0.986 $1.52 $101 RH two one-way tunnels 3.4km and 1.6 km Eastlink $0.80 $0.98 $103 RH no ramps

3 Does not include the write-down in value associated with re-sale after bankruptcy. 4 See [57]; Design issues include steep ramps 8% gradient, single mid-tunnel vent station, insufficient ventilation capacity for high HGV fraction. 5 This figure includes the additional $0.73 billion under-estimate in the tender price by the constructor. 6 Includes $0.154 bn compensation for leaking tunnel.

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Six of the tunnels were on-sold at a discount after bankruptcy of the original owner. Current values given in Table 3 include the write-down in value from Table 2 resulting from the resale.

Table 3. Resale and current value

7 8 Resale Current value $2018

date $bn return $bn Sydney Harbour $1.05 Eastern distributor $1.20 M5 East $1.20 Cross City Jun-14 $0.48 70% $0.51 Lane Cove Jan-10 $0.63 57% $0.75 M4 East $3.80 NorthConnex $3.00 Clem7 Jul-14 $0.62 9 19% $0.66 Airport Link Apr-16 $2.00 10 36% $2.08 Legacy Way Apr-16 $? 11 ? $1.58 Citylink (Burnley & Domain) $1.52 Eastlink Sep-11 $0.44 55%12 $0.50

7 Six tunnels were on-sold for a fraction of their value after bankruptcy of the original owner. 8 Includes the write-down in value associated with re-sale after bankruptcy. 9 See [81]; sold as part of Queensland Motorways $7b package 10 See [80] 11 See [81]; sold as part of Queensland Motorways $7b package; price unknown 12 ConnectEast and East Link motorway on-sold to Horizon Roads for$2.2bn.

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Construction costs are predominantly determined by volume of material excavated. Prevailing geology determines the means of excavation. Sydney tunnels in soft sandstone are mined using a road-header (RH) whereas Brisbane tuff requires the use of a tunnel boring machine (TBM) for two lane tunnels and road header for three lane sections. Sydney Harbour tunnel was constructed using prefabricated concrete sections (120m long) which were submerged and joined on the harbour floor.

Current construction costs in $M per lane-km from Table 2 are plotted in Figure 5. A typical lane width is 3.5 m - 3.6 m to which may be added a shoulder on one or both sides of the roadway. On top of the traffic envelope required for heavy vehicles (up to 4.9 m) is a height allowance needed to accommodate lights, signage, jet fans and smoke ducts (if used). On- and off-ramps to the main tunnel and their associated merge and demerge sections also add expense to the basic tunnel.

Figure 5. Construction cost per lane-km, AUD$ 2018.

A nominal (median) construction cost from Figure 5 is M$102 per lane-km. The significant outliers from this nominal value are;

High values: Eastern Distributor, CLEM7 , Airport Link and M4 East which have high construction costs due to the complex geometry associated with the installation of external structures, traffic ramps and interchanges. CLEM7 and Airport Link are also equipped with smoke ducts along their entire length.

Low values: Legacy Way and NorthConnex which are straight through tunnels with simple construction geometry. The older Sydney tunnels M5East and Lane Cove have relatively small cross section areas (two lanes 54 m2) compared with recent tunnel designs (two lanes 65m2). The low cost of NorthConnex (currently under construction) could be an indicator that the constructor has severely underbid on the project [20].

Traffic dynamics

Vehicle flow, density and speed data in Figure 6 illustrates the formation of a traffic jam between 7 am and 11 am.

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Jam

Figure 6. Traffic flow, density and speed over a 24 hour period, illustrating traffic congestion and the formation of a phantom traffic jam between 7am and 11 am. Traffic flow and speed data is averaged over a period of three minutes; density is the quotient of these values.

Prior to 7 am the average traffic speed slowly declines to 60 km/h. A minor traffic disturbance then causes the stream to rapidly slow to an average 20 km/h. The result is a phantom traffic jam [“jamiton”25] not a physical road blockage; evident because the subsequent average vehicle flow

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When a vehicle brakes in an evenly flowing traffic-stream, it causes a compression in the spacing of vehicles behind; possibly resulting in the formation of a short queue. If the rate of arrival of vehicles to the back of the queue exceeds the rate of departure of vehicles accelerating from the front of the queue, then the queue will lengthen, and a traffic jam will form. Maintaining an adequate vehicle separation reduces the likelihood of traffic congestion and jams by removing the need for severe braking which may initiate a queue. Paradoxically, increasing the road capacity will increase the duration of a traffic jam, because it increases the rate of delivery of vehicles to the rear of the queue; whereas the rate of clearance from the front of the queue is fixed by the driver reaction times and the acceleration limit of their vehicles.

Figure 7 plots spatial and time spacing between vehicles versus traffic speed on a typical toll road where the posted speed limit is 80 km/h. Lane 1 carries a high proportion of the heavy vehicles and lane 2 carries contains mainly passenger cars.

Congested Free

Figure 7. Typical traffic spacing versus speed for a two-lane road with a speed limit of 80 kph. Lane 1 is the slow lane carrying heavy goods vehicles. Spacing is determined from 3 minute averaged traffic flow and speed; density is calculated as the quotient of these values.

The band of data points indicates that there is a wide range of individual driver behaviours, however the trends are clear. Drivers regulate the speed of their vehicles to maintain a safe following

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The data show that headway between vehicles generally exceeds one second. However, maintaining a minimum two second headway contributes not only to safety, through prevention of rear end collisions, but also the reduces the probability of congestion. Figure 8 shows that there is a 90% probability that traffic speed will exceed 65 km/h if at least a two second headway is maintained.

Congested Free

Figure 8. Speed of traffic probability when headway exceeds 2.0 seconds.

Road capacity is determined by many local factors including; road gradient, width, lighting, fleet composition (fraction of heavy vehicles) and individual driver behaviour. Figure 9 shows that the peak road capacity of approximately 2000 - 2500 veh. / lane-h occurs at a traffic speed 65 km/h.

Research is currently being undertaken into the implementation of “connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) which can drive themselves and communicate autonomously with other vehicles on the road” [30]. It is reported [29] that “sixteen of the 20 best-selling vehicles in America already offer ACC (automatic cruise control)” which … “continuously adjusts a vehicle’s response to the car ahead”. However, extensive on-road testing has concluded that human drivers outperform the ACC because they can anticipate changes by looking multiple vehicles ahead. CAV is probably a technological over-reach. A two second headway is very easy to maintain without automation [41] and variable speed limit signs are already part of normal tollway infrastructure. In order to optimise the throughput, the road operator should set a speed limit of 70 km/h and insist (through driver education or punitive action) that drivers adopt a two second headway.

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Max capacity occurs at 65 km/h Free

Congested

Figure 9. Typical traffic flow-speed-density characteristic for two lane traffic with posted speed limit 80 km/h. Traffic flow and speed data is averaged over a period of three minutes; density is the quotient of these values.

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Vehicle exhaust emissions

Table 4 gives dates for the introduction of each new Euro engine technology into the Australian vehicle fleet. Since Australia now has no local manufacturing industry; the availability of future low emissions technologies (including conventionally fuelled Euro6, electric and hydrogen power) will be determined overseas.

Table 4. Commencement of implementation of EURO emission technologies in Australia [54].

Projections of the life-cycle of the various Euro emissions standards into the future are shown in Figure 10 [54]. Low emissions fuels (gas, hydrogen, electric and hybrid) represented 0.38% of NSW fleet in 2015 and were ignored in the analysis used to create this graph. However, the intention here was to provide a conservative basis for tunnel ventilation design rather than to accurately predict the introduction of new technology. Push-back from manufacturers [82]13, [28] and government [12] suggests that Euro6 NOx standards may be difficult to achieve in conventionally fuelled diesel engines.

Figure 10 shows that pre-Euro2 vehicles are no longer in significant numbers on Australian roads and that Euro6 vehicles are due to emerge. It predicts an increasing proportion of diesel vehicles (high NOx emitters) entering the PC fleet in the next 20 years. Similar graphs [54], show that diesel is replacing gasoline in LDV (light duty vehicle) and that HGV (heavy goods vehicle) have always been almost exclusively fuelled by diesel.

13 In 2014 PEMS (portable emissions measurement) first alerted regulatory authorities that vehicle manufacturers were “gaming” the laboratory tests used to assess compliance with standards for Euro6 vehicles.

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2018; 85% petrol 15% diesel

2040; 55% petrol 45% diesel

Figure 10. Percentage of kilometres travelled by passenger cars (PC) in NSW [54].

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Nitrogen dioxide is the principal ingredient in (especially diesel) vehicle exhaust which now determines the required fresh air intake needed to adequately ventilate a long urban tunnel. Since

NO2 is difficult to measure in small concentrations NOx (mixture of NO and NO2) is often used as a proxy. High NO2 levels are usually visually undetectable by motorists in tunnels but may cause acute respiratory symptoms (asthma) [79].

Particulates in diesel exhaust are now of secondary concern. Short term, high particulate levels are associated with respiratory illness and cardio-vascular conditions. Long term exposure increases the possibly of lung cancer [52]. However, improvements in engine technology and exhaust filtering have made this this of lesser importance than NO2, in determining fresh air requirements in tunnels. Since particulate matter in the tunnel air results in decreased visibility, its presence is easily detected by motorists and hence is the source of most public complaints regarding air quality.

Low levels of CO currently experienced in road tunnels are of little medical concern, except if there is prolonged exposure; in which case, the symptom is a headache. Dangerous concentrations of CO are only likely to occur in the event of a tunnel fire.

In recent years there has been a recognition that manufacturers’ specifications and laboratory testing do not accurately portray on-road emissions. A method of testing a large sample of vehicles in an on-road setting is the remote sensing (RS) technique, which measures individual exhaust emissions in a moving traffic stream. Colinear beams of infrared and ultraviolet light pass from a road-side source to a detector through the exhaust stream of a single lane of traffic. Readings of the exhaust components (CO, HC, SO2, NH3, NO, NO2) relative to the CO2 content are made for individual vehicles, whose number plate details provide accurate identification of the fuel type, classification and age of the engine. RS emissions measurements are not currently available for vehicles (eg. trucks) whose exhaust is not discharged at road level.

RS emissions measurements in Figure 11 show that there has been a dramatic decline in NOx emissions from petrol fuelled vehicles in line with the Euro standards indicated by the black line.

However, NOx emissions from diesel engines have not declined in vehicles up to Euro 5 and are a long way short of the mandated Euro standards, again shown by the black line.

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Figure 11. Average NOx emissions by Euro standard and country for petrol and diesel passenger cars from RS measurements. Black lines are the mandated Euro standard. [68]

NOx emissions from diesel passenger cars by vehicle manufacturer plotted in Figure 12 show that there is a large difference between the best and the worst emitters and that a significant reduction in NOx emissions occurs in the transition from Euro 5 to Euro 6 for some manufacturers.

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Euro5: 4.1g NOx/kg fuel

Euro6: 1.8 g NOx/kg fuel

Figure 12. NOx emissions for Euro 5 and Euro 6 diesel passenger cars by manufacturer. Red dashed line is the EURO mandated standard [68]

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The wide variation of NOx emissions for individual vehicles is also demonstrated in the data contained in Figure 13. Decay in performance of the emissions control with vehicle age is also evident form the average readings indicated by the blue dot.

Figure 13. Evolution of NOx emissions in Euro 5 diesel passenger cars. Obtained from laboratory (CADC, ERMES) and on road driving (PEMS) measurements on 788 vehicles. [32].

The same data plotted as a cumulative probability distribution curve in Figure 14 shows that only

35% of the 788 vehicles tested met the Euro 5 standard of 0.18 g NOx/km.

Figure 14. Cumulative probability distribution showing the probability distribution of NOx generation in 788 measurements from diesel passenger cars [32].

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PIARC tables [60] are the long-held industry standard which relates pollutant emissions to vehicle type PC (passenger car), LDV and HGV, fuel type, road speed and road gradient. PIARC data in its current form is deficient in that there is very little information available about; its derivation, accuracy (statistical variation) or precise vehicle parameters to which the data applies. PIARC tables do not acknowledge that vehicle acceleration, vehicle-spacing and prevailing tunnel airspeed will significantly affect the aerodynamic drag and hence affect tunnel exhaust emissions.

Figure 15 (passenger cars PC) is an attempt to re-format PIARC data into a form which allows it to be directly compared with independently derived data [16] from RS on-road testing. PIARC NOx tables for Euro2 to Euro5 PC diesel engines are formatted here into four simple correlations between the volumetric ratio NOx: CO2 in the exhaust stream and the vehicle specific power (VSP). NOx values come from directly from PIARC tables and the CO2 values are calculated using parameters identified in Table 5.

Table 5. Typical diesel passenger car parameters used in calculation of VSP and CO2 calculations.

PC HGV Mass kg 1,650 23,000 Idle Heat Release W 5,000 35,000 Thermal efficiency 33% 31% 1 Drag coefficient Cd 0.38 0.34 Frontal area A m2 2.5 7.0 2 CdA m 0.95 2.38 Coefficient of rolling resistance kg 0.01 0.01 Fuel properties Petrol Diesel Lower Calorific value MJ/kg 47 44 Density kg/L 0.76 0.84 kg CO2/kg fuel kg/kg 3.2 3.3

Grams CO2/J g/J 6.81E-05 7.50E-05

Note1: Cd for a truck in a tunnel is much reduced due to the suppression of the wake by the tunnel walls.

Speed and acceleration measurements are used along with road gradient and vehicle mass to determine VSP [38]. VSP is independent of the thermal efficiency of the engine because it only contains the energy component of the fuel which is expended in mechanical work. Correlating emissions to VSP avoids the introduction of a quantity (thermal efficiency) which is highly variable and difficult to measure in on-road testing.

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Figure 15. Evolution of Euro NOx emissions for diesel passenger cars derived from PIARC [60] tables using parameters from Table 5.

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Figure 16. Evolution of Euro NOx: CO2 emissions derived from remote sensing (on-road) experimental data. [16]

In spite of the limitation imposed by applying a single set of fixed parameters (Table 5) , it is still useful to compare PIARC data Figure 15 to that independently derived RS data in Figure 16; noting that there are significant differences in the trends.

Table 6. Differences in trends between PIARC (Figure 15) and RS (Figure 16) emissions factors. PIARC Remote sensing (RS) PIARC data generally predicts lower emissions factors than RS data Emissions factors are highly variable at low VSP Emission factors generally increase with VSP but asymptotically approach a fixed value at high VSP A continuing reduction in NOx: CO2 emissions NOx: CO2 ratios make no improvement in going occurs with the progression from Euro2 to from Euro2 to Euro3 or from Euro4 to Euro514. Euro5

14 This is consistent with evidence [36] that there are benefits in “leap-frogging to Euro VI heavy duty emission standards and Euro6 light duty emission standards rather than progressing through Euro 5/V.”

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Additional RS data Figure 17 shows that the ratio of NO2: NOx is steeply increasing for Euro2 to Euro4 diesel vehicles with small improvement for the transition from Euro4 to Euro5. This suggests that deteriorating NO2 pollution outcomes are likely unless increased engine thermal efficiency and effectiveness of catalysts and filters (Euro6) coming from future engine technologies results in a decrease in the absolute volume of pollutant being emitted from diesel engines.

Figure 17. Evolution of Euro NO2: NOx emissions derived from remote sensing (on-road) experimental data. [16].

Figure 18 presents the PIARC data in the alternative format using parameters identified in Table 5 for heavy goods vehicles (HGV). There is no independently derived data for RS measurements to corroborate with these correlations. Comparison of Figure 15 with Figure 18 shows the same trend of a high ratio NOx:CO2 at low VSP followed by a decline to a horizontal asymptote. The PIARC data suggests a continuing reduction in NOx emissions from HGV with the evolution from Euro II to Euro V vehicles. This optimism is unwarranted if the same trends noted in small capacity diesel engines can also be applied to larger engines.

In all; comparison of PIARC data with on-road measurements using remote sensing suggests that

PIARC tables underestimate actual NOx and NO2 emissions.

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Figure 18. Evolution of Euro NOx emissions for diesel heavy goods vehicles derived from PIARC [60] tables using parameters from Table 5.

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Traffic demand

Road tunnels generally provide a tolled alternative route to an existing congested surface road which is un-tolled. The physics of traffic flow is such that even a small decrease in traffic demand can cause congestion to clear, resulting in free traffic flow and hence little incentive to pay on the tolled alternative. Hence toll roads may be poorly patronised outside peak hours except for high value users. De-bottlenecking an existing network or opening a new road can also cause existing congested roads to flow freely and thus create a disincentive for motorists to patronise tolled roads.

Traffic demand on tolled roads, is determined by the compromise between price (tolls, fuel) and saving in travel time and distance compared with alternative routes or means of transport.

According to Hensher; “The value of commuter travel time savings (VTTS) is obtained from a model where the respondents trade time with money and the value typically is linked to leisure time trading rather than work related and hence the wage rate is not the basis of the VTTS. People often express it as a percent of wage and typically much lower than the average wage rate. Using the wage rate is only applicable for employee business travel time which is related to wage rate plus marginal wage increment for savings in overheads etc provided all travel is traded with work rather than leisure.” [33], [34].

Table 7. Values of time savings (gross income of sample is $1195 per week or $31.08/hr based on 200 working hours per annum) [34].

A probability distribution can be assigned to the VTTS as shown in Figure 19 for all potential road users. If a motorist at least reaches the break-even point where the total value of time saved exceeds the added cost of tolls, then the tolled route will be adopted over the un-tolled alternatives. This calculation is the basis for a theoretical estimation of the split of traffic demand and production of a demand curve like Figure 20 which shows the sensitivity of traffic demand to toll price.

In practice motorists may also stop driving on toll roads when they exceed their “toll budget” [35]. Added unwillingness to pay due to this saturation is expressed in the variation in the probability distribution of VTTS shown in Figure 19 where the mean VTTS is shown to decrease significantly for the addition of one or more tolled link to the journey.

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Figure 19. Value of time saved (VTTS) probability density function for current, one and two added tolled segments [35].

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Table 8 gives some data which shows the sensitivity (price elasticity) of demand to the toll price for two tunnels soon after opening.

Table 8. Price elasticity of demand data relating toll to demand. The original toll [44],[59],[61] is escalated to $2018 using CPI.

Cross City CLEM7 $2005 $2018 kvpd $2010 $2018 kvpd $3.50 $4.83 26 $4.28 $5.09 22.5 $1.75 $2.42 32 $3.00 $3.57 27 $- $ - 50 $2.28 $2.71 29

�� ⁄� Price elasticity of demand is defined as; � = �� where Q is the vehicle count and P is the toll. ⁄� Using the assumption that price elasticity is constant a simple mathematical model of the demand � versus toll price can be created; � = . For the data given in Table 8, the parameters A = 40 (�+�)� kvpd; k=$ 0.5 and e = -0.3 give a curve, plotted in Figure 20, which provides a reasonable fit to the limited data available. The fact that the elasticity is numerically less than 1 (in-elastic demand) indicates that revenue could be increased by increasing the toll.

Figure 20 suggests that increasing the toll to $5 will halve the demand compared with a toll free tunnel. Some of this demand would shift to un-tolled public roads at times outside peak hours and the remainder to other forms of transport.

Figure 20. Cross City and CLEM7; traffic demand kvpd versus toll price $2018.

From an economist’s point of view, scarce resources (eg. road space and clean air) will be wasted unless a cost is placed on their use. In line with this logic, the 2009 Report to the Treasurer on

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Australia’s Future Tax System [18] made several recommendations on road transport taxes which included;

• consideration of introduction of congestion pricing on all roads (Recommendation 61), • mass-distance-location pricing for heavy vehicles (Recommendation 62) and • pricing which improves efficient allocation of freight between transport modes (Recommendation 64).

The report also recommended that revenue currently gained from fuel taxes should be replaced over time with revenue from more efficient broad-based taxes. (Recommendation 65). These recommendations (long since shelved) have recently resurfaced. CEO for Transurban [30] is reported as saying “… as road funding sources decline, the need for user-charging will significantly increase by the late 2020s.” Congestion pricing has already been introduced in Oslo, Trondheim, London, Stockholm, Gothenburg and recently New York. The evidence [24] is that congestion pricing is unpopular when introduced but that its popularity increases when it is demonstrated to be effective.

Forecasting the opening road-traffic demand on a new toll road is often (Table 9) extremely optimistic, leading to financial collapse of the original operating company [43, 26] and heavy legal sanctions against the engineering consultants who produced the erroneous predictions. The case argued and won in court is that the traffic modellers, under commercial competitive pressure, have reverse engineered their calculations to meet pre-conceived answers which win the project for their project manager. The fact that negligence was proved meant that legal liability became unlimited [83, 63, 64, 65, 84]. There is now a very risk adverse culture in the industry regarding traffic demand modelling. State Governments are now required to take on all the associated commercial risk with demand modelling.

Table 9. Comparison of daily forecast and actual traffic on Australian toll roads [10]

Traffic growth on Australian toll roads plotted in Figure 21 shows that long term linear growth in the range 2% pa to 4% pa can be expected using 2006 as the base. Short term growth may be higher due to variations of traffic conditions in the surrounding road network. Figure 22 shows that traffic growth has not occurred in the Brisbane tunnels.

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Figure 21. Growth in average daily traffic flow on Australian tollways. [5], [44]

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CLEM7 Airport Link

Figure 22. Actual compared with modelled traffic flows for Brisbane tunnels. Over-optimistic prediction of traffic demand was the reason for the bankruptcies of six Australian tunnels. [75]

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Toll and revenue

Table 10 gives estimates of the 2018 traffic flows. Where necessary these values have been extrapolated by escalating older data by a linear 2% pa.

M5 East is deemed to run at “full capacity”. It has both a high peak lane capacity and a long duration for which the road runs at full capacity. M5 East has a nominal peak road capacity 2200 veh. /lane-h and a daily average traffic flow per lane of approximately 1190 veh. /lane-h.

Other tunnels (unlike M5 East) exhibit distinct morning and afternoon peak demand periods. Not all tunnels have a peak lane capacity as high as 2200 veh./lane-h, especially three lane tunnels. For example, Burnley tunnel has an unexpectedly low peak capacity only 1670 veh./lane h averaged over three lanes [40].

Utilisation data plotted in Figure 23, indicates that only Sydney Harbour, Eastlink, Lane Cove and Citylink tunnels run at relative capacities in excess of 50%. NorthConnex (predicted), Clem7 and Legacy Way run at capacities 25% or less.

Current tolls for passenger cars and heavy goods vehicles are also given in Table 10. A nominal toll is assigned to M5 East tunnel, which is in fact currently un-tolled. However, it is anticipated that M5 East will be sold when the New M5 section of the WestConnex project comes into operation. This will cause a drop in its patronage.

Considering that the median toll for passenger cars ($1.08/PC km) and heavy goods vehicles ($2.86/PC km) plotted in Figure 24, data suggests that the Eastern Distributor, Cross City tunnels are relatively expensive to use and that NorthConnex and Airport Link are relatively cheap.

Motorists pay a premium to use a tunnel compared with a surface toll-road. For example, the average cost to travel on Eastlink motorway is $0.16/PC-km and $0.20/HGV-km compared with $0.93/PC-km and $2.45/HGV-km in its tunnels.

Traffic and toll data given in Table 10, along with the estimated fraction of heavy goods vehicles, are used to predict the annual $2018 toll revenue along with the yield measured as a fraction of the $2018 value (Table 3) of the tunnel. Figure 25 shows that return on the investment for the newer tunnels (M4East, NorthConnex, CLEM7, Airport Link, Legacy Way) is apparently very poor15 due to their low utilisation and high initial costs. Table 11 gives some commentary on the yield of each tunnel.

15 Compare for example with Transurban S&P +BBB weighted average cost of AUD debt = 4.9% or NSW and Vic State Government bond rate = 2.3%.

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Table 10. Traffic and toll revenue. [44],[53],[71],[73]

Traffic Toll AUD$ 2018 Revenue AUD$ 2018 kvpd year kvpd 2018 %saturation PC HGV %HGV $/PC-km $/HGV-km $M pa yield pa Sydney Harbour16 89 2018 89 78 $3.50 $3.50 6% $1.25 $1.25 $114 11% Eastern distributor17 59 2016 59 41 $3.73 $7.46 5% $2.19 $4.39 $146 12% M5 East18 110 2016 114 100 $4.20 $11.00 12% $1.11 $2.89 $209 Cross City 39 2016 39 34 $5.72 $11.44 5% $2.72 $5.45 $67 13% Lane Cove 92 2016 92 64 $3.32 $10.36 5% $0.95 $2.96 $100 13% M4 East19 67 2019 67 47 $4.74 $14.22 10% $0.86 $2.59 $139 4% NorthConnex 35 2020 35 20 $6.41 $19.25 25% $0.71 $2.14 $123 4% Clem7 28 2016 29 25 $5.11 $13.54 3% $1.06 $2.82 $54 8% Airport Link 61 2015 61 43 $4.78 $12.66 3% $0.84 $2.22 $120 6% Legacy Way 19 2016 20 17 $5.11 $13.55 3% $1.11 $2.95 $37 2% Citylink (Burnley & Domain) 100 2016 104 61 $5.51 $16.53 5% $2.20 $6.61 $230 15% Eastlink20 115 2018 115 67 $2.87 $7.60 5% $0.93 $2.45 $130 26%

16 All vehicles passing through Sydney Harbour Tunnel are tolled equally in the range $2.50 to $4.00 depending on time of day. 17 Eastern Distributor is tolled in one direction only, so toll has been halved 18 M5 East is currently un-tolled; the toll value given is a nominal value. 19 Estimate prior to opening. 20 Eastlink toll applies to the distance from Springvale Rd ramp to Ringwood Bypass ramp 3.1km

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Figure 23. Tunnel utilisation relative to M5 East (100%), which has both a high lane capacity and long duration for which peak traffic occurs.

Figure 24. Tunnel toll per km travelled.

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Figure 25. Estimated toll revenue relative to current $2018 value from Table 3. M5 East is currently un-tolled.

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Table 11. Comment on investment yield.

Tunnel Yield relative Comment on current yield Concession extension to median Eastlink Very high High traffic flow combined with a large write-down in value when ConnectEast was on-sold to Horizon Roads. City Link High Relatively high toll. Transurban’s City City Link concession will Link revenue stream is critically be extended 12 years to dependent on the availability of the finance Westgate Burnley and Domain tunnels. tunnel. Cross City, Cross City and Lane Cove were on-sold Lane Cove, to Transurban at discount. Cross City Eastern Dist. and Eastern Distributor have relatively high tolls. Sydney Median Tunnel toll is set to match the Sydney Concession expires in Harbour Harbour Bridge toll. 2020. Clem 7 1 Low On-sold at a discount to Transurban; little traffic growth. Airport Link 1 On-sold at a discount to Transurban; little traffic growth. NorthConnex, Yet to open; early growth expected. Construction of M4 East NorthConnex comes with a 2.1 years extension of the Transurban toll concession on the M2 motorway plus an increase in the toll on HGV.

M4 motorway toll will be re-instated by NSW State Govt. Legacy Way 1 Very low On-sold at a discount to Transurban; little traffic growth.

Note 1: Loss making tunnels in Brisbane; CLEM7, Airport Link, Legacy Way were sold in a $7 billion package along with highly profitable Gateway Motorway and Sir Leo Hielscher Bridges; the Gateway Extension, and Logan Motorway. The purchaser was not able to “cherry pick” the profitable components.

Decisions to build the Brisbane tunnels were reportedly politically inspired [2] and promoted by former politicians turned lobbyists for the winning bid team, who awarded them a large “success fee” [56] for their services.

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Finances

Transurban financial model21 is shown in Figure 26. Table 12 gives Transurban’s financial results for 2018 over all assets [71]. A breakdown of the financial results for the other tunnel operators is not available. Hence it is unknown whether the other operators have a similar financial structure.

Transurban’s share of revenue is distributed to shareholders once operating and finance costs are subtracted. In the early years of a project Transurban will also receive a tax benefit [78] 22.

Amortisation of the loan is held at zero until about eight years prior to the end of the concession. At this stage it is taken from the EBITDA and the distribution to shareholders falls dramatically. Hence there is a strong incentive to extend the concession period by negotiation with Government on development of future projects, as noted in Table 11. Straight line depreciation allowance (for tax calculation purposes only 23) on each asset is calculated on the purchase price and the duration of the concession period.

Figure 26. Transurban Group financial model $M FY2018 (see the bottom line of Table 12).

Table 12 and Figure 27 show that the most valuable assets in the Transurban portfolio are the City Link (37%) and M2 (14%) motorways which contribute 51% of the total revenue. The integrity of tunnels within these motorways is of utmost importance to the continuing revenue stream.

21 Transurban is set up as a real estate investment trust (REIT). 22 It is expected that Transurban will start to pay tax in FY 2023. 23 Since the asset is passed back to the public at the end of the concession period, there is no need to create a sinking fund.

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Table 12. Transurban results FY2018 [71].

e $M $M $M Tax Other cost $M costs $M epreciation NPBT NPBT $M NPAT $M Operating

Transurban benefit $M distribution Income Income tax Net finance revenu EBITDA $M Proportional D proportion Toll Revenue 100% M2 motorway $301 $2 $48 $255 $9 -$36 $228 -$74 $145 -$9 $154 100% Lane Cove Tunnel $100 $- $35 $65 -$4 -$29 $32 -$21 $15 $4 $11 100% Cross City Tunnel $67 $- $23 $44 -$1 -$10 $33 -$24 $10 $1 $9 75.1% Eastern Distributor $110 $- $29 $81 $3 -$24 $60 -$39 $18 -$3 $21 100.0% Roam Tolling & Tollaust $3 $16 $15 $4 -$1 $- $3 -$1 $3 $1 $2 50% M7 motorway $219 $3 $36 $186 $- -$106 $80 -$41 $39 $- $39 50% M5 motorway $144 $ 7 $20 $131 -$28 -$21 $82 -$46 $64 $28 $36 Sydney $944 $28 $ 206 $766 -$22 -$226 $518 -$246 $294 $22 $272

100% City Link motorway $780 $23 $115 $688 $13 -$31 $670 -$165 $492 -$13 $505 Melbourne $780 $23 $115 $688 $13 -$31 $670 -$165 $492 -$13 $505

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Table 10 continued.

$M $M Tax epreciation NPBT NPBT $M NPAT $M distribution EBITDA $M Proportional D Toll Toll Revenue $M Other revenue $M Income Income tax benefit Operating costs $M Transurban proportion Net finance cost $M 62.5% Gateway motorway $137 $- $32 $105 -$8 -$6 $91 -$46 $53 $8 $45 62.5% Logan motorway $116 $- $24 $92 -$6 -$10 $76 -$42 $40 $6 $34 62.5% Airportlink tunnel $75 $- $27 $48 $1 -$28 $21 -$32 -$12 -$1 -$11 62.5% Clem7 tunnel $34 $1 $17 $18 $1 -$11 $8 -$10 -$3 -$1 -$2 62.5% Legacy way tunnel $23 $ - $14 $9 $1 -$8 $2 -$8 -$7 -$1 -$6 62.5% Go Between Bridge $8 $- $2 $6 -$1 $- $5 -$2 $4 $1 $3 62.5% TQ Corp $- $2 $1 $1 $24 -$131 -$106 -$2 -$132 -$24 -$108 Brisbane $393 $3 $117 $279 $12 -$194 $97 -$142 -$57 -$12 -$45

100% 95 Express lane $120 $ - $49 $71 $- -$29 $42 -$14 $28 $- $28 100% 495 Express Lanes $98 $ - $41 $57 $- -$65 -$8 -$22 -$30 $- -$30 100% A252 $5 $1 $22 -$16 $1 -$ 5 -$20 -$5 -$26 -$1 -$25 100% GWA Corp $ - $ - $3 -$3 $97 -$77 $17 -$1 -$81 -$97 $16 North America $223 $1 $115 $109 $98 -$176 $31 -$42 -$109 -$98 -$11 Corporate and other $- $1 $68 -$67 $40 -$99 -$126 -$66 -$232 -$40 -$192

Transurban Group $2,340 $56 $621 $1,775 $141 -$726 $1,190 -$661 $388 -$141 $529

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Figure 27. Fraction of total revenue (A$2.1 bn) produced from Transurban’s Australian tollways.

Table 13 gives a summary (derived from Table 12) of the total revenue, distributions to shareholders and operating costs for tunnel assets operated by Transurban. Operating costs are high, varying between 26% to 61% of the revenue.

Table 13. Summary of Transurban tunnel revenues, operating costs and distributions to shareholders in FY2018.

Revenue (R) Distribution (D) Operating Cost (OC) $M $M %R $M %R Lane Cove $100 $32 32% $35 35% Cross City $ 67 $33 49% $23 34% Eastern Distributor $146 $80 55% $39 26% Airport Link $120 $34 28% $43 36% Clem7 $54 $13 24% $27 50% Legacy Way $37 $3 9% $22 61%

Overall FY2018 operating costs are broken down into wages, road operating and miscellaneous costs in Table 14.

Table 14. Break-down of operating costs for Transurban FY2018.

Wages (W) Road operating costs Misc. (M); transaction, integration Total operating $M (ROC) $M and corporate $M cost $M $169 $307 $145 $621 27% 50% 23% 100%

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Operating costs are apportioned to individual tunnels in Table 15 and compared with the revenue; showing that Brisbane tunnels are relatively expensive to operate compared with the Sydney tunnels.

Table 15. Allocation of operating costs to individual tunnel assets and comparison with shareholders distribution.

Road operating costs Misc.: (M) transaction, integration Wages (W) (ROC) and corporate costs

$M %R $M %R $M %R Lane Cove $ 9.5 10% $ 17.3 17% $ 8.2 8% Cross City $ 6.3 9% $ 11.4 17% $ 5.4 8% Eastern Distributor $ 10.5 7% $ 19.1 13% $ 9.0 6% Airport Link $ 11.8 10% $ 21.3 18% $ 10.1 8% Clem7 $ 7.4 14% $ 13.4 25% $ 6.3 12% Legacy Way $ 6.1 17% $ 11.1 30% $ 5.2 14%

A nominal cost of the annual insurance premium is obtained by subtracting the maintenance and energy costs from the road operating costs.24

Table 16. Allocation tunnel road operating costs for FY2018

Maintenance [71] Energy 1 Other (insurance?)

$M % ROC $M %ROC $M %ROC Lane Cove $4.0 23% $3.3 19% $ 10.0 58% Cross City $5.0 44% $1.8 16% $4.5 40% Eastern Distributor $6.0 31% $1.1 6% $12.0 63% Airportlink $2.0 9% $5.5 26% $13.9 65% Clem7 $5.0 37% $1.9 14% $6.5 49% Legacy way $ - 0% $2.0 18% $9.1 82% Note 1: Obtained from Table 19

24 Operating costs for maintenance [71] and energy (Table 19) are derived from the Transurban annual reports.

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Ventilation

The majority (excluding Sydney Harbour and City Link tunnels) of tunnels are longitudinally ventilated. Figure 28 is a schematic diagram which shows the principles of longitudinal ventilation in a uni-directional tunnel. Under normal traffic operation vehicle movement (“piston effect”) drives air through the tunnel. Air extraction prior to the exit portal is necessitated by the regulatory requirement that no tunnel air shall be emitted at ground level through the portals [45]

Extraction fans located near the exit portal discharge tunnel air through a stack to mix with atmospheric air at a high elevation [46]. In practice it is difficult establish causality between measured ambient pollution levels at ground level and the output from a ventilation stack, especially if there are busy surface roads in close-by or dust and smoke from fires. Causality between stack exhaust and ground level measurements can only be inferred using the results of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analyses. Atmospheric pollution levels measured at ground level close to the tunnel vent stations [49], [74] are usually well within the NEPM standards contained in Table 17 indicating that the stack exhaust becomes well mixed and is indistinguishable from background pollution.

Table 17. NEPM standards for atmospheric pollution [7].

Pollutant NEPM standard Peak value Averaging time Exceedances CO ppm 9.0 8 hr 1 day pa ppm NO2 ppm 0.12 1 hr 1 day pa ppm 0.03 1 year none -1 PM10 m none µg/m3 50 1 day 3 PM2.5 µg/m 25 1 day 1 day pa 8 1 year none

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Figure 28. Longitudinal ventilation. [77]

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In-tunnel pollution levels vary considerably depending on the traffic density experienced in the tunnel. From the time of opening 2001 until 2013 M5 East tunnel failed to meet public expectations for internal air quality regarding airborne particulate matter (soot). After unsuccessful trials with tunnel-air filtration plant, the NSW State Government applied heavy fines on trucks emitting excessive smoke [27]. Recent in-tunnel measurements [70] show that worst case daily visibility obscuration levels now are in the band 0.003 m-1 to 0.004 m-1 with rare exceedances of 0.005 m-1. Anecdotal advice is that public complaints start when visibility obscuration exceeds 0.003 m-1. These data suggest that M5 East tunnel now largely meets public expectations for particulates with occasional lapses during periods of high traffic congestion. In-tunnel NOx measurements are not published for M5 East.

Tunnels with low traffic densities easily meet public and regulatory expectations for cleanliness both internally and in the external atmosphere. For a significant amount of each day, the measured in- tunnel pollution levels [74] even lie below the NEPM allowable levels for ambient atmospheric pollution; indicating that the tunnel air could be safely discharged through the portal. Regulation prohibiting portal emission has been relaxed in some of the Melbourne tunnels to allow portal emissions at night, when tunnel traffic flow and ambient levels are low. This relaxation in regulation and “ventilation of demand” using variable speed fans, has resulted in a 68% reduction power consumption in Eastlink tunnels [69]. In Sydney and Brisbane, the “no-portal emissions” rule is rigidly implemented; resulting in large power expenditures in ventilation plant.

Extraction fan capacity is determined by the requirement that there shall be no portal emission of tunnel air. The total volumetric flow of air generated by vehicle motion plus a margin to create a small portal inflow at the exits must be expelled through the vent station. Additional high pressure extraction fans must be installed where smoke ducts are installed in a tunnel.

The role of jet fans during normal operations is to augment the vehicle piston effect in drawing fresh air into the entry portal when the traffic slows or stops. Usually, at traffic speeds above 60 km/h the tunnel is self-ventilating (no jet fans are running). Tunnels with complex geometries need additional jet fans to control the air flows at on- and off-ramps. Table 18 identifies fan numbers and air quantities which must be extracted from several tunnels.

Table 18. Extraction, supply and jet fans. Blank entries in the table occur where the value is unknown. Extract-supply fans Jet fans no. m3/s m3/fan no. Sydney Harbour 30 1500 50 0 Eastern distributor 960 46 M5 East 18 2530 141 132 Cross City 10 1280 128 54 Lane Cove 1665 120 M4 East 1100 80 NorthConnex 140 Clem7 10 1500 150 120 Airport Link 2300 194 Legacy Way 107 Citylink (Burnley & Domain) 0 Eastlink 10 1500 150 24

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NB: Jet fans are not necessarily of the same thrust rating; hence the number of jet fans given in Table 18 is not proportional to the overall installed thrust capacity.

Total required jet fan thrust capacity in older tunnels (pre 2012) was generally determined by the requirement to generate enough tunnel air flow during stopped traffic to meet in-tunnel air quality specifications. However as new emissions control technologies have been fitted to vehicles, there is a decreasing need to generate as much tunnel fresh air inflow to dilute the pollutants. Hence required jet fan capacity is now determined by the requirement to generate air flow to control smoke during fire emergencies. It is likely that the older tunnels now have a surplus of jet fans.

Energy costs

The energy costs associated with the operation of a road tunnel are associated with;

• tunnel lighting; which typically accounts for approximately one third of the power usage. • electric power consumption of ventilation fans which extract air from or supply (if required) air to the tunnel. Under most circumstances (in longitudinally ventilated tunnels) fresh air flow arrives with the traffic through the entry portal and is driven along the tunnel by the vehicle “piston effect”. The role of the vent station is to capture this flow to prevent portal emission.

Energy consumption by jet fans should be small except if the tunnel is subject to extended periods of congested traffic.

Figure 29 shows that the escalation in power prices (eg. Brisbane 12% pa on 2007 base) outstrips the CPI-based increases in toll-revenue (3% pa on a 2007 base).

Figure 29. Growth in power costs versus growth in Brisbane tunnel toll-revenue. [75]

Total energy consumption and cost data is given in Table 19. Power costs as a fraction of toll revenue are relatively high in lightly used tunnels (eg. Brisbane tunnels) where the ventilation system cannot be “turned down” sufficiently to reflect the low traffic demand. This situation could be improved by use of variable speed fans and feedback control of tunnel airspeed [47]. M5 East has high power

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Overview of Australian Urban Road Tunnels Ridley costs because of high levels of congestion (necessitating extensive use of jet fans) as well as decisions made in the design of the roadway25 and the ventilation system26.

Table 19 also shows the equivalent CO2 emissions emitted to atmosphere associated with the consumption of electric power along with a hypothetical carbon cost $25/tonne CO2. This carbon tax is shown to have a very small effect on the energy cost as a fraction of toll revenue.

25 High ramp gradient 8%. 26 M5 east has a single central vent station which necessitates the use of additional supply fans (rather than supply through the entry portal) and high hydraulic resistance through extraction and supply air paths.

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Table 19. Energy and CO2 cost. [9],][54], [71]

Total energy cost with Energy (pa) Total energy cost CO2 carbon tax carbon tax Fraction tonnes CO2 pa $M @ $M @ of toll @ 0.7 $25/tonne of Fraction of MW-h GJ $150/MW-h revenue tonnes/MW-h CO2 $M toll revenue Sydney Harbour 14519 52267 $2.18 1.9% 6775 $0.17 $2.35 2.1% Eastern distributor 7058 25410 $1.06 0.7% 3080 $0.08 $1.14 0.8% M5 East 81000 291600 $12.15 6.0% 37800 $0.95 $13.10 6.5% Cross City 12249 44095 $1.84 2.7% 5716 $0.14 $1.98 3.0% Lane Cove 21678 78041 $3.25 3.3% 10780 $0.27 $3.52 3.5% M4 East 9198 33113 $1.38 1.0% 4292 $0.11 $1.49 1.1% NorthConnex 9010 32437 $1.35 1.1% 4205 $0.11 $1.46 1.2% Clem7 12745 45883 $1.91 3.5% 5948 $0.15 $2.06 3.8% Airport Link 36471 131295 $5.47 4.6% 17020 $0.43 $5.90 4.9% Legacy Way 13061 47021 $1.96 5.3% 6095 $0.15 $2.11 5.7% Citylink (Burnley & Domain) 23415 84295 $3.51 1.6% 15050 $0.38 $3.89 1.8% Eastlink 1 2918 1054 $0.44 0.3% 1362 $ 0.03 $0.47 0.4% Note 1: Power cost estimate after “ventilation on demand” control strategy was recently introduced causing 68% decrease in power consumption. [19]

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Operations

Incident detection systems [67] are an important part of the control room operator’s equipment used to monitor tunnel traffic. In the period 1992 -2007 approximately 10,500 (two per day) incidents occurred in the Sydney Harbour Tunnel [42].

Visual surveillance technology ranges from manual CCTV observation to computer-vision, automatic video incident detection systems (AVIDS) and number plate recognition. Detectable traffic incidents include; stopped vehicles, wrong way vehicle, sudden speed drop, queue length measurement, under or over speed vehicle, over-height vehicle. Non-traffic incidents include; smoke and fire detection, pedestrians and cyclists, fallen or random objects, cargo, debris or animals.

A human operator will usually detect an incident (through anticipation) before an automatic system will activate. Default emergency responses are prepared for all likely scenarios and tunnel zones. Facility is left for the human operator to intervene; initially based on training [1], judgement, experience and from directions from emergency services when they arrive. Occasional opportunities are made available [13] for emergency services to undertake semi-realistic (Figure 30) fire training and evacuation exercises in road tunnels.

Figure 30. Fire training exercise Sydney Harbour Tunnel Oct 7, 2010 [14].

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Road safety

Road Injury Crash Index RICI measures the number of injury road crashes, where an individual is transported from, or receives medical treatment at the scene, per 100 million vehicle kilometres travelled. Figure 31 gives road injury crash indices for all Transurban tollways (both surface and underground roads) although is likely [11] that the crash index might be lower for tunnels but the consequences of a crash may be higher.

Figure 31. Transurban road injury crash index by half year. [71].

Toll-roads are relatively safe compared with the general Australian road system, where the injury rate is currently approximately 15 injuries per 105 vkt (vehicle kilometres travelled) [8]. The expected number of injuries in road tunnels per annum given in Table 20 is based on a RICI of 4.95 injuries pa per 105 vkt.

Table 20. Predicted frequency of injuries occurring in tunnels.

Distance travelled RICI @4.95/105-vkt 105 vkt pa injuries pa Sydney Harbour 0.90 4.5 Eastern distributor 0.37 1.8 M5 East 1.53 7.6 Cross City 0.30 1.5 Lane Cove 1.18 5.8 M4 East 1.35 6.7 NorthConnex 1.15 5.7 Clem7 0.49 2.4 Airport Link 1.27 6.3 Legacy Way 0.32 1.6 Citylink (Burnley & Domain) 0.91 4.5 Eastlink 0.67 3.3 TOTAL 56

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Figure 32. Expected average number of road injuries per annum in road tunnels based on RICI 4.95.

It is reported that on average, 30 collisions a year occur inside Sydney Harbour Tunnel [42]. This information along with data in Table 20 suggests that about 15% of the collisions result in injury.

Bassan [11]presents statistics which apportions the severity of injuries which result from vehicle crashes in road tunnels. Most deaths occur from collisions and multiple fatalities are associated with the involvement of heavy goods vehicles and fire.

Table 21. Severity of injuries (Bassan [11])

Fatal Seriously injured Slightly injured 5.9% 11.2% 82.9%

Crashes are considered more likely at the entry portal of a tunnel. Australian tunnels are strongly lit (relative to the background ambient levels) at the threshold to avoid the “black hole effect” associated with a rapidly decreasing lighting transition. Entry portals are also areas where over- height vehicles, who ignore over-height detector warnings, will experience collision with lighting and cable trays, dragging this equipment down onto themselves and other vehicles.

Merge and de-merge zones connected to on- and off-ramps are areas where collisions also occur, especially in congested periods where vehicles a being driven without adequate separation.

Fire

Most vehicle fires (or smoke without fire) are caused by vehicle crashes rather than technical (mechanical-electrical) failures of a vehicle. Experience has shown that motorists will occasionally proceed into the tunnel, ignoring conventional traffic signals. It is reported [42] that motorist may then U-turn and travel against the direction of incoming traffic to exit the tunnel. Hence the ability of the tunnel operators to rapidly close both tubes of the tunnel is critically important to safety. Sydney Harbour Tunnel uses a water screen, backlit with a stop sign (Figure 33), for a period of 1 – 2

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Overview of Australian Urban Road Tunnels Ridley minutes whilst a hard barrier is put into place. It is reported that this system has also led to the prevention of over-height vehicles entering the tunnel.

Figure 33. Sydney harbour tunnel “soft-stop” barrier [42].

Egress of motorists occurs via cross passages to the non-incident tube (probably before the fire- brigade arrives) under the guidance of tunnel operators via message boards or the public address system.

Ventilation systems (jet fans and extraction ducts) which control the flow of smoke are the primary means of protecting personnel. Their aim is to separate people from the smoke (or visa-versa). The initial ventilation response will vary depending on the location of the fire, type of ventilation equipment available (smoke extraction) and location(s) of stopped vehicles in the tunnel.

Aggressive ventilation using jet fans, can be counter-productive if it prematurely mixes the smoke into the tunnel air where there are stopped vehicles. An alternative strategy may be simply to switch off all the jet fans and allow the hot smoke to stratify, creating a clear air path beneath.

As a large fire evolves there is a need to maintain “critical velocity” of air over a fire in order to prevent smoke from back-layering onto the stopped traffic and to create a smoke free path for egress of remaining motorists queued behind and for the fire-brigade to approach the fire site.

Brisbane and Melbourne tunnels incorporate a smoke duct to capture the smoke locally. Jet fans operate both upstream and downstream of the fire site, to create a bi-directional air flow converging on the fire site. This necessitates a higher jet fan density than if smoke is simply blown ahead of the stopped traffic; as is the practice in Sydney tunnels. Figure 34 gives schematic diagrams which demonstrate these principles.

The Sydney strategy of blowing smoke ahead (in the direction of traffic flow) assumes that there is no stopped traffic downstream of the fire site and that the fire brigade will not enter the incident tunnel from this direction. The assumed protocol is for the fire brigade to enter the non-incident tunnel (in the direction of traffic flow) and to use cross passages to approach the fire site.

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Smoke ducts have received criticism on the grounds that suspended slabs are dangerous to install. One fatality [4] occurred during construction of the Airport Link tunnel smoke duct. It is argued that the risk increase during construction outweighs the likely benefit of operational flexibility during an emergency. Smoke ducts are also expensive as they not only include the price of the suspended slab, but also additional high pressure fans (typically operating in excess of 2500 Pa) in the vent station. Smoke ducts are difficult to seal. Air leakage losses through joints and dampers can be large, leading to inefficient fan operation. At stall, the smoke extraction fans can also potentially pull a large negative pressure in the duct, with the risk of lifting the slab and dropping it onto the roadway. Care needs to be taken to ensure that this scenario is not possible, by installing a vacuum pressure relief or (less preferably) providing enough weight in the slab to prevent it lifting.

There is presently no resolution to the technical debate regarding the installation of smoke ducts. New Melbourne tunnels Westgate and North East Link are likely to be longitudinally ventilated incorporating smoke ducts and new Sydney tunnels will continue to be built without smoke ducts.

Fixed fire suppression (water deluge) is a normal part of Australian tunnel infrastructure. The aim is to protect the tunnel asset (both fabric and revenue) as well as for protection of motorists [23]. Deluge limits the fire growth rate and ultimate size and hence makes the fire manageable for the fire-brigade to extinguish. Heat release rate commonly used in Australian tunnel ventilation design practice is 50 MW. No fires of this magnitude have been encountered in Australian tunnels.

A criticism of deluge is that, if it is deployed prematurely (before the traffic has stopped) it will cause additional vehicle collisions. The issue of deluge water spreading spilled fuel is mitigated by an efficient road drainage system equipped with flame traps.

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Figure 34. Smoke control strategies.

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From 1994 to 2017 there have been 78 fires in Australian road tunnels, corresponding to a frequency of 0.754 fires per 105 vehicle kilometres travelled. The expected average mean time between fires (MTBF) given in Table 22 is plotted in Figure 35 for the various tunnels. Generally, fires will be small and easily extinguished by handheld firehose or deluge.

Table 22. Expected average mean time between fires MTBF Distance travelled @0.754 fires /105 vkt 105 vkt pa fire pa years Sydney Harbour 0.90 0.68 1.5 Eastern distributor 0.37 0.28 3.6 M5 East 1.53 1.15 0.9 Cross City 0.30 0.23 4.4 Lane Cove 1.18 0.89 1.1 M4 East 1.35 1.01 1.0 NorthConnex 1.15 0.87 1.2 Clem7 0.49 0.37 2.7 Airport Link 1.27 0.96 1.0 Legacy Way 0.32 0.24 4.2 Citylink (Burnley & Domain) 0.91 0.69 1.5 Eastlink 0.67 0.51 2.0 TOTAL 8

Figure 35. Expected average mean time between fires.

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Table 23 gives an indication of the size of the tunnel fires encountered. The largest fire (2007) to occur in an Australian tunnel directly involved four trucks, seven cars and the evacuation of several hundred people in the Melbourne City Link, Burnley tunnel [21],[22]. Three people died as a result of physical injuries sustained in the vehicle collisions. None of the evacuees was injured. The fire heat release rate possibly exceeded 20 MW.

Table 23. Severity of tunnel fires. [15]

Conclusion

Urban road tunnels are an integral part of the toll road system where the problems of congestion, air pollution and safety are magnified. Australia has now had in excess of 25 years of experience in the construction and operation of long urban road tunnels. However, ongoing public controversy over political, commercial and technical aspects of recent and upcoming projects, suggests that there are many areas where the industry can improve its performance. The essence of these suggested improvements is that engineering decisions should be based on operational data which is well analysed and critically reviewed widely before implementation.

Governments are looking for alternative methods of delivery other than “build own operate transfer” (BOOT) which passes all the project risk onto the private sector partner, leading to financial collapse in half the cases examined. The approach used currently in the WestConnex project was for the public sector to provide seed capital with a subsequent sale (hopefully at a high price) to the private sector to continue operating after demand is proven. Transurban gained control of the entire WestConnex project prior to opening and will likely maintain its competitive advantage with future Sydney projects; Western Harbour Crossing, Northern Beaches Link and F6 Extension. Similarly, for North East Link, the Victorian State Government proposes to pay an operator to build and toll the road on its behalf, with the option to sell this off in future. Transurban has refused to bid (for now) on North East Link [31]. In the face of public opposition to monopoly, private ownership of transport infrastructure, Government has endeavoured to become less transparent [66] through means of project delivery which shields it from “freedom of information” requests.

In delivery of infrastructure, competitive pressure to win a project on behalf of their clients has led engineers to deliver pre-scribed answers to technical problems. This has resulted in some spectacular financial collapses and negligence litigation. Rather than management of project risk through a high level of engineering integrity, the risk mantra of the successful industry player has been to be “the first to come second”. However, late arrival of the operator after the tunnel has been built means that little of Transurban’s now considerable experience is implemented into the design of new facilities, allowing mistakes to be repeated.

Politicians are often strong advocates for the construction of new toll roads, as evidence for their concern to “do something about traffic congestion.” There is a preference to solve problems of traffic congestion, air pollution and road safety through the creation of expensive infrastructure rather than adoption of options which involve changing behaviour; including

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Overview of Australian Urban Road Tunnels Ridley

• congestion pricing of roads, • traffic management; eg. mandating a two second headway between vehicles, • removing individually heavy polluting vehicles from roads by implementing emissions testing as a prerequisite for annual registration, • discourage the use of diesel fuelled vehicles.

Australia has had a history of successfully changing public behaviour on roads; including use of seat belts, drink driving and speeding campaigns. There is evidence that the methods suggested above could be effective and inexpensive.

Traffic demand modelling is a technical area for which there is now a strong adverse risk culture within the industry. Since government now carries much of the project risk in this in this area, it is reasonable to assume that modelling should be under its supervision; separate from the influence of project bid teams. Modelling methodology should be academically and peer reviewed, experimentally validated and made freely available to all bid teams.

The industry’s competitive “commercial in-confidence” mantle has resulted in an inability to share reliable data and hinder delivery effective engineering solutions and operating experience. Large quantities of operating data are collected through the existing tunnel SCADA systems including;

• fleet characterisation (PC, LDV, HGV, weight), • traffic dynamics (flow, speed, traffic incidents), • ventilation outcomes (air-flow, pollution levels, fan run times, power consumption)

This data is highly valuable to the design of future facilities but is rarely, effectively analysed and disseminated to the engineering community.

The safety record of Australian road tunnels is good. However, there is scope to effectively, technically examine and publish information on human factors; including tunnel shut-down times, operator performance (training, human-machine interfaces, collection and interpretation of data), motorists’ behaviour (especially during an emergency), performance of fire and rescue services.

PIARC tables used by the industry are possibly too optimistic and likely to under-predict the NOx and

NO2 pollution outcomes in tunnels where a large percentage of the fleet is diesel fuelled.

The WestConnex project and its extensions (M4 East, Rozelle Interchange, New M5, F6 extension, West Harbour Crossing, Northern Beaches Link) is the most extensive, complex underground and expensive underground road network ever contemplated. The Australian public is looking forward to an economically successful and operationally safe conclusion to this project along with Westgate and North East Link projects currently under development in Melbourne.

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Overview of Australian Urban Road Tunnels Ridley

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