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Future of the Humanitarian System: Impacts of Internal Changes

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Future of the Humanitarian System: Impacts of Internal Changes © UNDP Bangladesh Future of the Humanitarian System: Impacts of Internal Changes John Borton John Borton Consulting Berkhamsted, UK November 2009 The Humanitarian Horizons research was made possible through generous grants from Catholic Relief Services, the International Rescue Committee, Mercy Corps, Oxfam America, World Vision Australia, World Vision Canada, and World Vision International, with additional financial support from the Ford Foundation. TABLE OF CONTENTS Table of Contents .......................................................................................................................... 1 Section 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................. 3 Section 2. Recent trends and the principal features of the humanitarian system in 2009 .. 4 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 4 Problems of definition ........................................................................................................... 4 Resourcing the system ........................................................................................................... 7 Operational space ................................................................................................................. 12 Modes of operation .............................................................................................................. 14 Principal actors...................................................................................................................... 17 Other actors ........................................................................................................................... 19 The ‘Beneficiaries’ ................................................................................................................ 20 Governance and coordination ............................................................................................ 21 Accountability ....................................................................................................................... 22 The role of technology ........................................................................................................ 24 A crisis of identity? ............................................................................................................... 24 Section 3. Likely context for the humanitarian system in 15-20 years time ....................... 26 Teams seeking to anticipate the future ............................................................................. 26 Key points from the US NIC and the UK DCDC reports ........................................... 28 Section 4. Thinking about ‘drivers’ ........................................................................................... 36 What are ‘drivers’ and how can they be identified? ........................................................ 36 Existing work on drivers of change within the humanitarian system .......................... 38 Section 5. What the humanitarian system might look like in 2025 ...................................... 42 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 42 An Overview of likely drivers of change shaping the humanitarian system of 2025 43 Key Driver: Humanitarian crises and caseloads in 2025 ................................................ 44 Key Driver: Transition to a multi-polar world ................................................................ 47 Key Driver: Developments in technology ........................................................................ 51 Key Driver: Focus on causes and greater use of ‘social protection’ approaches ....... 52 Section 6. Looking Back from 2025 ......................................................................................... 55 Imagined reflection by the Minister for Disaster Risk Reduction, Dhaka, Bangladesh. 1st June 2025 .......................................................................................................................... 55 Imagined reflection by the Minister for Social Protection, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 1st June 2025 ............................................................................................................................... 57 References ..................................................................................................................................... 60 - 1 - Annex 1. The field of futures studies and foresight ............................................................... 66 Annex 2. Futures and foresight: terminology, concepts, methods and tools ..................... 70 Annex 3: Guidelines for strategic foresight ............................................................................. 79 Annex 4: Executive Summary of Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World ................ 83 Economic growth fueling rise of emerging players ........................................................ 83 New transnational agenda ................................................................................................... 85 Prospects for terrorism, conflict, and proliferation ........................................................ 86 A more complex international system .............................................................................. 87 The United States: less dominant power .......................................................................... 88 2025 — What kind of future? ............................................................................................ 88 Annex 5: UK DCDC Strategic Trends 2007-2036: Key findings ........................................ 90 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 90 Key Theme 1 - Population and resources ........................................................................ 94 Key Theme 2 - Identity and interest ................................................................................. 96 Key Theme 3 - Governance and order ............................................................................. 98 Key Theme 4 - Knowledge and innovation ................................................................... 102 Annex 6: Drivers of Change Identified in the HFP Workbook “Trends and drivers of change in humanitarian action in 2025” (HFP 2008) ........................................................... 105 - 2 - SECTION 1. INTRODUCTION The objective of this study is to analyse the impacts of internal changes within the humanitarian system over the next two decades on the longer-term viability and shape of the humanitarian aid business at the global level. Key contributions to futures studies and strategic foresight fields recommend the study and assessment of the recent history and current situation before attempting to anticipate the future.1 Section 2 therefore summarises the principal features of the humanitarian system of 2009 and some of the significant recent trends. It is possible that certain trends may become drivers of change in the next few years. Section 3 considers the likely wider context in which the humanitarian system will be operating in 15 to 20 years time. This is done by reviewing the relevant work of some well-resourced and high calibre futures teams such as the US National Intelligence Council. Section 4 considers how drivers of change can be identified and reviews available material on future drivers in relation to the humanitarian system. Section 5 reflects on the salient points from section 3 (the wider context in 2025) and section 4 (available material anticipating the future of the humanitarian system) and indicates what are considered to be the key drivers of change that are likely to shape the humanitarian system of 2025. This will provide a sense of what the humanitarian system may well look like and how it will operate in 2025. Section 6 then seeks to convey a sense of how this might all look from the perspective of programmes being implemented in Ethiopia and Bangladesh in 2025. In preparing to undertake this study, key contributions in the field of futures and foresight studies were reviewed, revealing how well developed and sophisticated this field has become. Annex 1, ‘The field of futures studies and foresight,’ and Annex 2, ‘Terminology, concepts, methods and tools,’ have been written as a means of providing readers with an accessible entry point to the futures and foresight fields. The more accessible these fields can be made to colleagues in the humanitarian system, the more likely it is that strategic foresight processes will be adopted and pursued in the sector and that agencies will make the adaptations required to cope with likely trends and events. - 3 - SECTION 2. RECENT TRENDS AND THE PRINCIPAL FEATURES OF THE HUMANITARIAN SYSTEM IN 2009 INTRODUCTION Most approaches to Futures Studies and Strategic Foresight recommend a study and assessment of the recent history and current situation before attempting to anticipate the future. For instance, the Guidelines for Strategic Foresight (Hines and Bishop 2006) include the two steps of ‘map the system’ and ‘study history’ (see Annex 1). Sohail Inayatullah’s Six Pillars recommends a mapping of the past, present and future in order to achieve a “shared history” among the participants in a future studies/foresight process
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