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Factors and Impacts in the Information Society a Prospective Analysis in the Candidate Countries

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Factors and Impacts in the Information Society a Prospective Analysis in the Candidate Countries FACTORS AND IMPACTS IN THE INFORMATION SOCIETY A PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS IN THE CANDIDATE COUNTRIES REPORT ON ROMANIA Authors: Alexandru Caragea, Radu Gheorghiu, and Geomina Turlea The authors of this report are solely responsible for the content, style, language and editorial control. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the European Commission. January, 2003 Technical Report EUR 21279 EN European Commission Joint Research Centre (DG JRC) Institute for Prospective Technological Studies http://www.jrc.es Legal notice Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of the following information. Technical Report EUR 21279 EN © European Communities, 2004 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. Printed in Spain 2 FACTORS AND IMPACTS IN THE INFORMATION SOCIETY A PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS IN THE CANDIDATE COUNTRIES Acknowledgements Acknowledgements: We are indebted to RALUCA MIRON (Raiffaisen Bank), for her valuable contribution to this work. REPORT ON ROMANIA 3 Preface Preface The Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) of the Directorate General Joint Research Centre of the European Commission contracted the International Centre for Economic Growth, European Centre (ICEG EC) to act as the coordinator of a consortium of 11 research institutes to carry out this project. The main objective of the project was to provide a series of national monographs studying the development of the Information Society (IS), including both the positive and negative impacts, in each of the candidate countries. These monographs offer an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of each country regarding the development of IS, and a view on their possible outcomes; both strongly rooted in factual quantitative data. They provide a clear, contextualised, multi-factoral and multi-causal picture of the input factors that contribute to the success or failure of IS developments, and the relevant output parameters that support mid- and long-term impacts on economic growth, employment and other relevant aspects of the future of each country. Each monograph concludes with a set of alternative scenarios for the development of IS in that country. This report was carried out by Softwin Research Department, and aims to study the factors and impacts of the Information Society in Romania. The report reflects the research results, comments and opinions of the team of authors. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the European Commission. It is organised around 9 themes – economy, demography, government policies, industrial development and competitiveness, relevant economic activity, IST penetration rates, institutional capacity and regulatory background, education, and culture. The section on each of these themes concludes with a specific SWOT analysis. Finally, a general diagnosis is made of Romania’s potential for IS developments, followed by a brief section on possible scenarios for the future and policy recommendations. A Synthesis Report was also prepared by the Project Coordinator, the International Centre for Economic Growth, European Centre (ICEG EC), on the basis of all the country studies. This offers an integrated and prospective view on the future outlook for the Information Society in the Candidate Countries and can be found on the FISTE (Foresight in Information Society Technologies in Europe) website: http://fiste.jrc.es/ The contract was awarded by: Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) of the Directorate General Joint Research Centre, European Commission Contractor: International Centre for Economic Growth, European Centre (ICEG EC) – Coordinator of Consortium of 11 research institutes Romanian member of the Consortium: SOFTWIN Research Department, Techno-Marketing Foresight Team Contract name: Factors and Impacts in the Information Society: a Prospective Analysis in the Candidate Countries Contract number: N 20089-2002-11 F1ED SEV HU REPORT ON ROMANIA 5 Table of Contents TABLE OF CONTENTS COUNTRY PROFILE ............................................................................................................................ 11 A. NATIONAL AND REGIONAL ECONOMY....................................................................................... 13 A.1. ECONOMIC GROWTH..................................................................................................................... 13 A.1.1. The growth pattern ............................................................................................................. 13 A.1.2. Regional disparities in growth ............................................................................................ 16 A.2. SOURCES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH................................................................................................. 18 A.2.1. The supply side of growth .................................................................................................. 18 A.2.2. The demand side of growth................................................................................................20 A.3. LABOUR MARKET AND PRODUCTIVITY............................................................................................. 22 A.3.1. Trends in unemployment.................................................................................................... 22 A.3.2. Changes in labour supply................................................................................................... 25 A.3.3. Changes in labour productivity...........................................................................................27 A.4. MAJOR STRUCTURAL CHANGES ..................................................................................................... 27 A.5. FDI AND CROSS BORDER CAPITAL FLOWS ...................................................................................... 29 A. CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................................30 SWOT................................................................................................................................................ 31 IS SWOT ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................................ 31 B. NATIONAL AND REGIONAL IS POLICIES .................................................................................... 33 B.1. THE INSTITUTIONAL SETTINGS - THEIR INFLUENCE ON IS POLICIES................................................... 33 B.1.1. A short overview of the changes in the institutional settings (1990-2000)......................... 33 B.1.2. The main institutional settings after 2000........................................................................... 33 B.1.3. Other institutional actors..................................................................................................... 36 B.1.4. A short assessment on the institutional settings ................................................................ 36 B.2. CHRONOLOGICAL DESCRIPTION OF ALL NATIONAL AND REGIONAL IS POLICIES ................................. 38 B.2.1. The distinct stages of implementation of IS policies .......................................................... 38 B.2.2. Main IS Programs and Strategies ...................................................................................... 42 B.3. THE DRIVING MOTIVATIONS OF IS POLICIES .................................................................................... 47 B.4. OBJECTIVES AND RESULTS ........................................................................................................... 48 B.4.1. Accelerating the development of infrastructure for Information Society ............................ 48 B.4.2. Accelerating the premises for equal access to communication services........................... 49 B.4.3. Stimulating the ICT industry ............................................................................................... 51 B.4.4. Cheaper, faster and safer Internet ..................................................................................... 51 B.4.5. Investments in people and skills.........................................................................................53 B.4.6. Stimulating the use of Internet............................................................................................ 55 B.4.7. Online government: public access to electronic services .................................................. 57 B.4.8. Network security, ICT anti-fraud and the smart cards promotion....................................... 59 B.5. THE COMMITMENT OF PRIVATE AND PUBLIC ACTORS ....................................................................... 59 B.5.1. The commitment of public actors ....................................................................................... 59 B.5.2. The commitment of the private sector................................................................................ 62 B.5.3. The commitment of the civil society ................................................................................... 64 B.5.4. The commitment of academia............................................................................................ 66 B.6. SPECIFIC IMPORTANT ACTORS ...................................................................................................... 66 B. CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................................................67
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