Newsletter May 2010

Dear friends and colleagues,

We are proud to present a new form of the ISDP newsletter that will be issued on a monthly basis. ISDP has entered the new decade with a rede- signed website to provide you with better access to our news and publications. Our forums have been well attended by members of the diplomatic community, decision makers as well as fellow colleagues from academia and other research centers in Stockholm. In May, we will start posting recordings from our forums on the ISDP website so as to make them available to a wider international audience. All of our publications continue to be freely accessible on our website; should you wish to order printed copies, you can do so via Amazon.com.

Our project on organized crime and narcotics continues to prosper having recently received new funding from the Swedish International De- velopment Agency (Sida) to embark on a new project in regard to organized crime in the Baltic Sea region. Furthermore, a new lecture series on transnational organized crime, which was launched in January, has quickly gained a wide audience, especially among members of the Stockholm diplomatic community. If you wish to register for our forums, please sign up via the newsletter link on our website.

News

ISDP visited DPRK New Research Project on Organized Crime April 24, 2010 March 10, 2010 A delegation from ISDP led by Director Niklas Swanström visited With funding from the Swedish International Development Coop- the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) from April 24 to eration Agency (Sida), ISDP has initiated a new research project on April 30. organized crime in the Baltic Sea region. Please click here to read the full press release (in Swedish). Guest researcher from the National Defence Academy, Japan April 2010 New Issue of the China Eurasia Forum Quarterly Mr. Norihito Kubota started a three-month fellowship at the ISDP February 15, 2010 this April as a guest researcher. He is an assistant professor at the Volume 7, no. 4 of the China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly is now Department of International Relations, National Defense Academy, out. Please visit the CEFQ website to read more. Japan. Apart from conducting interviews on various topics, espe- cially on peacekeeping, Mr. Norihito Kubota is conducting research New ISDP Website on “North Korean issue” in Japanese domestic February 10, 2010 The Institute for Security and Development Policy is proud to pres- Guest researcher from the CICIR, China ent our new website. It is our hope that this site will facilitate finding March 2010 information about our research as well as our publications. Mr. Song Qingrun started a three-month fellowship at the ISDP this March as a guest researcher. He is currently an assistant professor Silk Road Studies Workshop at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations February 10, 2010 (CICIR). Mr. Song is conducting research mainly focusing on Myan- On February 10, the ISDP Silk Road Studies Program organized a mar/Burma, Thailand and Mekong Workshop in Tbilisi on Georgia’s strategy on the occupied territories. Among the participants were the Georgian minister for Reintegra- ISDP Inhouse seminar with the U.S. Ambassador to tion, members of the opposition and civil society. Stockholm, Matthew Barzun March 25, 2010 Ambassador Barzun visited the ISDP office in Stockholm for an in- house meeting with our research staff.

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Forthcoming Staff Activities Staff Development The ISDP is expanding its fields of research through working June 17, 2010 with distinguished experts as well as providing recent university Xiaolin Guo will address the Expert Meeting “Shifting Grounds in graduates with the opportunity to gain valuable experience in Burma/Myanmar? Dilemmas & Opportunities for the International our internship program. Community” at the Clingendael Institute, The Hague, the Nether- lands. Learn more about the event here. New Staff Members

May 21, 2010 Beginning January 1, Roger Svensson joined ISDP as a Staff Mem- Niklas Swanström will participate in a conference on “China and ber. He has previously worked at STINT and is currently also work- Southeast Asia: Southeast Asia’s new «best friend»?” organized by the ing part-time with the German Marshall Fund. Centre for Asia and the Pacific at Sciences Po in Paris. His presen- tation is entitled “China/Myanmar security relations: India and Anna von Wachenfelt joined the Institute as a Project Coordinator. Southeast Asia at risk?” She holds a M.A. degree in International Relations from St Andrews University.

Christopher O’ Hara joined the Institute as a Junior Research Fel- Conferences low, and is active in conflict management issues related to Southeast The ISDP organizes occasional conferences and workshops. Asia and Northeast Asia. Before this, he studied at the Department of Government in Uppsala.

Conference on Political Roles of Religious Communities in Internships South Asia, organized by ISDP and S. Rajaratnam School of Cemal Özkan has been as an intern at ISDP during spring 2010, International Studies in Singapore February 25, 2010 drafting papers, compiling applications and assisting Walter Kegö After three seminars in Islamabad, Kolkata and Kabul, the Confer- in research issues pertaining to organized crime in the Baltic Sea ence in Singapore continued the discussions from the local seminars Region. but with a wider regional perspective. The workshop focused on the political roles of religious communities in South Asia in its entirety Jenny Söderström worked as an intern at ISDP between January and and how their roles relate to the region’s strategic picture. Thus March 2010, developing project proposals and writing articles on the following key topics were formulated: Laws, Constitution and Georgia and ethnic minorities, she is currently on maternity leave. Religious Communities and Experiences of emerging conflicts and Söderström holds a Master’s Degree in Peace and Conflict Studies Conflict Prevention in Relations between Religious Communities. from Uppsala University and has recently moved back from Georgia Two to three persons represented each country and they were chosen where she spent two years working for the Danish Refugee Council. with the aim to have the best possible representation of professional expertise from different necessary disciplines. Dan Wu, a student from the Master Program of International and European Relations at Linköping University, started to work as an Conference on Regional Environmental Co-Operation In EU intern at ISDP from February 2010. Wu is currently the editor of and ASEAN: Lessons from Two Regions, organized by ISDP in China and PLA newsletter and news digest editor for the China and cooperation with the ASEAN Studies Center in Singapore Eurasia Forum Quarterly. February 22, 2010 The purpose of this conference Erik Leijonmarck started an internship at ISDP in January 2010. was to bring together scholars He is working on a project which is aiming to increase awareness of and policymakers to discuss harmful effects of drug consumption on societies. Mr. Leijonmarck the topic of regional coopera- is a student at Uppsala University and his interests are foreign policy tion in environmental protec- analysis and development policy in Greater Central Asia and the tion in Europe and Southeast Caucasus. Asia, and what lessons both regions can learn from each Edward Gillmore is working as an intern at ISDP, editing publica- other in this regard. While tions and contributing to publication content. He now provides participants were selected on scholarly merit, the diverse list of par- research assistance to Walter Kegö, Karl Harbo and Christopher O´ ticipants reflected also a broader desire to include policymakers and Hara on transnational organized crime, Afghanistan and Chinese other high-level representatives, thus recognizing that information foreign policy respectively. His research interests are energy security and research on regional environmental protection as a non-tradi- and environmental stakeholder facilitation. tional security issue needs to be shared across a spectrum of actors.

Silk Road Program WORKSHOP February 10, 2010 WORKSHOP on the Action Plan of the Government of Georgia: State Strategy on Occupied Territories organized by ISDP and the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies in Tbilisi.

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PUBLICATIONS Books, Silk Road, Asia, Stockholm, and Policy Papers are together with ISDP Policy Briefs the main written output of ISDP research. The Institute’s researchers also contribute to the public debate through articles in journals and newspapers.

Books IntroEurasia: Monitoring the EU’s Central Asia Strategy Conflict Prevention and Michael Emerson Jos Boonstra Management in Northeast Asia: Nafisa Hasanova The Korean Peninsula and Taiwan Marlène Laruelle Strait in Comparison Sebastien Peyrouse Niklas Swanström FRIDE, 2010 Sofia Ledberg Alec Forss (eds.) Into EurAsia – Monitoring the EU’s Cen- May 2010 tral Asia Strategy offers the first assessment

of this ambitious plan, undertaken by independent analysts from Two of the world’s most dangerous flash- the EU and Central Asia within the context of the EUCAM project. points, this edited volume with contribu- The role of Russia, China, the US, Turkey, Iran and the other major tions by leading scholars offers a comprehensive evaluation and com- players, as well as the current state of politics and economics in the parison of approaches to conflict management and prevention on region are all analysed through the prism of the EU Strategy. the Korean Peninsula and in the Taiwan Strait. The consequences of any escalation of these two conflicts and the difficulties in resolving them necessitate a fresh look at designing new strategies to prevent and contain conflict as well as highlighting the limitations of existing Asia Papers measures. Presenting both a theoretical and practical examination of conflict prevention and management, the volume provides a com- The Myanmar 2010 Elections: parative analysis of the Korean Peninsula and the Taiwan Strait— A European Perspective identifying lessons that could be transferred between the two cases Christopher O´ Hara March 2010 but also the obstacles to this. The experiences of other regions and the role of third parties are also examined. This is a valuable addition This paper deals with the perception that to the literature for students of peace and conflict studies as well as Europe has of Myanmar from the view policymakers with an interest in Northeast Asia. point of politicians and also the media; the expectations that Europe has of Myanmar Reconnecting India and Central from the perspective of politicians and also Asia: Emerging Security and the general public; and the reactions of Eu- Economic Dimensions rope with regard to the issues of sanctions, the internment of Aung Nirmala Joshi (ed.) March 2010 San Suu Kyi, and the ongoing human rights abuses.

This volume constitutes an overview of the Challenges of Non-Proliferation emerging and deepening relations between in Northeast Asia and India and Central Asia in both the political Possible Solutions and economic fields. The stability and secu- Lu Yin February 2010 rity of Central Asia is of prime importance for India, which it considers part of its extended neighborhood. In- As the world enters a new millennium, tertwined with Indian concerns is the stability of Afghanistan, where Northeast Asia has been witnessing the it is vigorously involved in reconstruction activities. So far, India has rising risk of nuclear weapons proliferation. been active mainly in infrastructure, trade, education, health and This paper examines each of the specific technology in the region. With enhanced economic engagement, risks that Northeast Asia is confronted with India can help build capacities in areas such as agriculture, Informa- today, as far as nuclear nonproliferation efforts are concerned. It also tion Technology, service industries, science & technology and media. attempts to define practical and effective ways to address the prolif- Conversely, India’s increasing need for energy can be addressed by eration problems involved, and then offers a perspective as to what the energy-rich Central Asian countries, while improved transporta- kind of role China is able to play in the regional efforts for nonprolif- tion networks could provide a boost to continental trade across the eration and nuclear disarmament. region, benefiting India. Integrating South and Central Asia would result in vast economic benefits to all the stakeholders involved, lead- ing to a positive outcome for stability and security in the region.

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Clashes, Crises and Confusion: Reports Japanese Politics at a Crossroads Bert Edström February 2010 The New Eastern Europe: Challenges and Opportunities for the EU The general election in Japan on August Svante Cornell 30 resulted in a new coalition government Centre for European Studies, March 2010 formed by three former opposition parties. Read more here. Focusing both on the short-term task of compil¬ing the national budget, and on the long-term task of reforming the political Articles and Book Chapters decision-making system, Prime Minister Hatoyama Yukio was soon

to realize that his party’s ambitions to institute “real reforms” was an China and Greater Central Asia: Economic Opportunities and evasive goal. The rigidities and restrictions the new government is Security Concerns in China, the Developing World, and the encountering are formidable and the prospects of success are unsure, New Global Dynamic notwithstanding that the mandate handed to the new government is Niklas Swanström strong. BOOK CHAPTER, January 2010

‘Moderate Islam’ in Turkey Svante Cornell Silk Road Papers ARTICLE, Saisphere 2009, January 2010

Foreign Religious Education and the Central Asian Islamic Revival: Impact Policy Briefs and Prospects for Stability David M. Abramson Obama on a Roll SILK ROAD PAPER, March 2010 Roger Svensson ISDP POLICY BRIEF No. 27, April 28, 2010 Analysis of Islam in Central Asia tend to be based on surveys and anecdotal evidence China’s Role in the Darfur Peace Process and Its Implications of religious activity and statements about Danielle Wu belief. The evidence is often marshaled for ISDP POLICY BRIEF, No. 26, April 22, 2010 ranking Muslim population in terms of religiosity and political activism or ranking governments in terms of Combating Human Trafficking: The Swedish Experience their repressive policies toward religious behavior. This paper lends Cemal Özkan greater depth to those studies by providing a grounded assessment of ISDP POLICY BRIEF, No. 25, April 16, 2010 consequences of Central Asians’ religious acquisition abroad. The Expansion in the EU of Baltic Organized Criminal Groups Edward Gillmore ISDP POLICY BRIEF, No. 24, April 08, 2010 Stockholm Papers Fighting Organized Crime in the EU: A New Era with the Lis- Counteracting Transnational bon Treaty and the Stockholm Programme Organized Crime: Henrik Sjölinder Challenges and Countermeasures ISDP POLICY BRIEF, No. 23, March 29, 2010 Cemal Özkan Walter Kegö Georgia and the Eastern Partnership: Democratization without STOCKHOLM PAPER, April 2010 Conflict Resolution Jenny Söderström This report outlines the origins of trans- ISDP POLICY BRIEF, No. 22, March 17, 2010 national organized crime, describes how it manifests itself and identifies possible Obama and Asia threats against societies. Money laundering Roger Svensson is dealt with in some detail since it facili- ISDP POLICY BRIEF, No. 21, March 10, 2010 tates transnational crime activities and their expansion into the legal economy. The challenges posed by financial crime are identified and Assessment of EU Policy on Burma guidelines for its prevention are outlined. The EU strategy against Andreas Mälarstedt, Oscar Bergman transnational organized crime is an example of how the common ISDP POLICY BRIEF, No. 20, February 26, 2010

European model of crime prevention can be implemented elsewhere Organized Crime: A Major Threat to State Security Walter Kegö ISDP POLICY BRIEF, No. 19, February 19, 2010

Japan: The Quest for Political Leadership Bert Edström ISDP POLICY BRIEF, No. 18, February 12, 2010

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U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan: Domestic Pressures on U.S.-China Isdp Forum On Transnational Crime Relations January 21, 2010 Sangsoo Lee on Security Sector Reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Orga- ISDP POLICY BRIEF, No. 17, February 05, 2010 nized Crime in the Balkans: EU’s failed reform policy and its con- sequences for Europe with Daniel Lindvall and Detective Inspector Sri Lanka: Towards Reconciliation? Magnus Sjöndin, the Swedish National Criminal Police. Martina Klimesova ISDP POLICY BRIEF, No. 16, January 29, 2010 Silk Road Forum 2010 January 18, 2010 Op-Eds and Analysis on Georgia, Russia, and the Future of the West with Ronald D. Asmus, Executive Director, Transatlantic Center and Strategic Plan- ning, German Marshall Fund of the United States. China: The Silent Giant And Kyrgyzstan’s Unrest Niklas Swanström CACI Analyst, Volume 12, No. 7, April 14, 2010 ISDP in Media Kazakhstan as a Uranium Power: Forthcoming Successes and Challenges Svante Cornell was quoted in a Reuters article Azerbaijan: Karabakh Marlène Laruelle key to Turkish-Armenian peace. CACI Analyst, March 31, 2010 April 23, 2010

Erica Marat was interviewed by RT on the current situation in Kyr- Forums gyzstan. Watch the interview here. April 7, 2010 Isdp Forum April 15, 2010 Xiaolin Guo was quoted in The Irrawaddy News Magazine article on Europe’s Energy Security and Dependency on Russia: The Junta Turns Attention Back to the Jungle. Economics and Politics of Energy Market Competition with Fredrik April 4, 2010 Erixon, Director and Chief Executive of the European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE), Brussels, comments by Svante Cornell was interviewed for an APA (Azerbaijan) article on Ambassador Olof Ehrenkrona, Senior Political Advisor at the Swed- Turkish-Armenian relations. ish Ministry for Foreign Affairs. April 2, 2010

Isdp Forum On Transnational Crime Svante Cornell was quoted in The Washington Times article Georgia March 24, 2010 fears Russian reprisal for bombings. on Trafficking in Human Beings within and into Sweden: Efforts April 1, 2010 to Prevent and Combat Human Trafficking, with Kajsa Wahlberg,

Detective Inspector of the Department for Police Affairs, Nicklas Norling was quoted in The Huffington Post article Afghani- National Po ice Board in Sweden. stan President a Better Diplomat than Domestic Leader.

March 30, 2010 Silk Road Forum

March 16, 2010 Nicklas Norling was quoted in an Associated Press (AP) article: on Has the Turkish military been subjugated, and is a liberal order Afghan leader visits China, signs economic pacts. The article also emerging in Turkey with Halil M. Karaveli, Senior Fellow at the appeared in the Guardian. Institute for Security and Development Policy. March 24, 2010

Isdp Forum On Transnational Crime Eu February 18, 2010 Svante Cornell was quoted in an EurActive.com article European on Cooperation Against Organised Crime: New Opportunities centre-right claims to have defeated communism. with the Lisbon Treaty and the Stockholm Programme with Henrik March 19, 2010 Sjölinder, Deputy Director, Police Division of the Ministry of Justice. Svante Cornell was quoted in a Trend (Azerbaijan) article entitled Asia Forum Experts: Turkish PM’s on eviction of illegally living Armenians will February 11, 2010 negatively impact establishing of Ankara-Yerevan relations. The on China´s Elite Politics with Dr. Bo Zhiyue Senior Research Fellow article also appeared on Times.am. at the East Asian Institute National University of Singapore. March 18, 2010

Asia Forum Svante Cornell was quoted in a Trend News (Azerbaijan) article January 26, 2010 entitled European expert: ‘Armenian genocide’ to strike severe blow on China’s Nuclear Strategy and Its Position on a Nuclear Free World to Swedish economy. with Major Lu Yin, Research Fellow at the Institute of Strategic March 16, 2010 Studies, National Defense University, PLA, China.

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Niklas Swanström was interviewed in a Deutsche Welle article: EU should drop failed sanctions policy against Burma. March 4, 2010

Svante Cornell was quoted in a Trend News article European expert: Even if Armenian parliament ratifies Armenian-Turkish protocols, one can hardly expect equivalent response from Turkish Parliament. February 10, 2010

Svante Cornell was quoted in a Forexyard analysis Turkey-Armenia deal deadlocked over rebel region. January 26, 2010

Svante Cornell was quoted in a Kuwait Times article Bereft of ally Ukraine, Georgia goes it alone against Moscow. January 21, 2010

Svante Cornell was quoted in a Trend News article Although compli- ance of Armenian-Turkish protocols with Constitution recognized, Armenian parliament unlikely to ratify it: experts. January 13, 2010 The China and Eurasia Turkey Analyst Forum Quarterly

The Turkey Analyst is a publication of the The China and Eurasia Forum Quarterly, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & the an independent forum which seeks to Silk Road Studies Joint Center, designed bring together regional experts, academics, to provide authoritative analysis and government policy makers, and business news on the rapidly developing domestic leaders with an interest in the growing re- and foreign policy is- sues in Turkey. It is lationship between China and Eurasia, was published weekly, and includes a topical launched in November 2005. The forum is analysis, as well as translations and sum- affiliated with the Central Asia- Caucasus maries of selected Turkish news reports. Institute and the Silk Road Studies Pro- It is edited and compiled under the gram. Focusing primarily on Sino-Central supervision of Svante E. Cornell, Halil M. Asian, Sino-Russian, and Sino-Caucasian Karaveli, and M. K. Kaya. The analyses appearing in the publica- relations, the goal of this website and the CEF Quarterly (formerly tion are unsigned, being the consensus view of the three editors. The the CEF Monthly) is to foster discussion and information sharing Turkey Analyst occa- sionally publishes signed guest analyses, which between a geographically distant community that recognizes the sig- are normally solicited. Available at www.turkeyanalyst.org nificance of China’s emergence in this important part of the world. The Forum has been very positively received among researchers, policy analysts, regional experts, the business community, and policy Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst makers. Dr. Niklas Swanström is the Forum’s editor, Mr. Christo- pher Len and Mr. Nicklas Norling are assistant editors. The China The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is and Eurasia Forum Quarterly is published on the internet at www. an English language global web journal chinaeurasia.org and also as a hard copy, visit the website to order devoted to analysis of the current issues the hard copy. facing the Central Asia-Caucasus region. It serves to link together the business, governmental, journalistic and scholarly communities and is the global voice of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute at Johns Hopkins University’s Nitze School of Advanced International Studies. Estab- lished in 1999, the Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst has established itself among the world’s most authoritative sources of analysis and infor- mation on the region. The CACI- Analystis published on the Internet and in hardcopy edition on a fortnightly basis, and is freely available at www.cacianalyst.org. Each issue contains four analytical articles, four field reports, and a news digest. The CACI Ana- lyst is edited by the Center’s research director Dr. Svante Cornell.

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INITIATIVES The China Initiative

facilitates better understanding of China – its domestic development and its international role. The initiative tackles problems in five ma- jor areas: Foreign Relations, Military Build-up, Domestic Develop- ment, Human Security, and Sino-European Dialogue.

The Korea Initiative

was launched in response to security problems on the Korean Pen- insula with ongoing and proposed projects related to the following areas: Confidence building on the Korean Peninsula, Unification, Swedish-North Korean Dialogue, EU Policy toward the Korean Peninsula, Domestic Developments, and DMZ issues.

The Turkey Initiative

is part of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Joint Center. Its main aim is to function as a nexus for expertise, knowledge and information on Turkish politics, society, and foreign Europe’s World: The Only Europe-Wide Policy Journal relations The Initiative supports research into Turkey’s domestic poli- tics and its process of democratization, as well as the country’s foreign relations, not least its relations with regions to its east.

Please note that the Spring issue of Europe’s World: The only Europe-wide ideas Community is now available at www.europesworld.org

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MISSION

The Institute for Security and Development Policy is a Stockholm- The Institute’s research is conducted along thematic as well as based independent and non-profit research and policy institute. The regional lines. The thematic areas are: Conflict Management and Me- Institute is dedicated to expanding understanding of international af- diation, Security and Political Violence, State Building, Governance fairs, particularly the interrelationship between conflict, security, and and Human Rights, Narcotics and Organized Crime, Energy, and development. The Institute’s primary areas of geographic focus are European and American Policies. The geographical focus stretches Asia and Europe’s neighborhood. The Institute incorporates the Asia from the Wider Black Sea Region and the Baltic Sea Area to the Ko- Program and the Silk Road Studies Program. The latter, formerly rean Peninsula and Japan. Northeast, Southeast, and South Asia are affiliated with Uppsala University, constitutes, since 2005, a Joint covered within the Asia Program, the area from Turkey in the West Center with the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, Johns Hopkins to Western China in the East, including the Caucasus and the Black University-SAIS. The Institute’s core funder for 2007 and 2008 was Sea-Caspian Sea basin, is covered by the Silk Road Studies Program. the Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs, however the ISDP is in the The Baltic Sea region and the European Neighborhood, including process of diversifying its funding in the future. Russia, are increasingly important areas of the Institute’s work.

The ISDP fosters both fundamental and applied research in a wide range of disciplines in the social sciences and humanities, with a fo- cus on issues of conflict, security and development. This ranges from short research projects involving a sole researcher to larger, multi-year cooperative endeavors involving numerous researchers and institu- tions. This research is undertaken mainly at the institute’s offices.

CONTACT INFORMATION

Institute for Security and Development Policy Västra Finnbodavägen 2 SE-131 30 Nacka Sweden

Tel. +46-8 410 569 60 Fax. +46-8 640 33 70

[email protected] www.isdp.eu www.silkroadstudies.org

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