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The Conflicting Theories of Ethnic The Conflicting Theories of Ethnic Conflict: The Case of Nagorno-Karabakh By Sanan Mirzayev Submitted to Central European University Nationalism Studies Program In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts Advisor: Professor Alexei Miller Budapest, Hungary CEU eTD Collection 2007 Table of Contents Introduction.................................................................................................................................3 Literature Review........................................................................................................................6 General Theories .................................................................................................................6 Theories of Extreme Ethnic Violence: ................................................................................10 PART I......................................................................................................................................14 Complexity of Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict ...............................................................................14 A Short History of Conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh .............................................................14 Pre-Soviet Antagonism.......................................................................................................14 Uneasy, but peaceful coexistence until Gorbachev era.......................................................16 From Perestroika to 1992 ..................................................................................................18 Actors of the Conflict ................................................................................................................20 Governmental Level Actors...................................................................................................22 Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic:.................................................................................22 Armenian SSR....................................................................................................................26 CPSU.................................................................................................................................29 Nagorno-Karabakh Soviet .................................................................................................33 Volskiy Committee .............................................................................................................34 National Armenian Government.........................................................................................35 National Azerbaijani Government......................................................................................37 Political Organization ............................................................................................................38 The Karabakh Committee ..................................................................................................38 The Azerbaijani Popular Front ..........................................................................................39 Community Level Actors.......................................................................................................40 Armenian Community ........................................................................................................40 Azeri Community ...............................................................................................................42 Military Actors ......................................................................................................................43 Armenian Armed Military Groups......................................................................................44 National Army of Independent Armenia .............................................................................44 Azerbaijani Independent Militias .......................................................................................45 Azerbaijan National Army..................................................................................................45 CEU eTD Collection Soviet and Other Military Forces.......................................................................................46 Regional Actors.....................................................................................................................48 Russia................................................................................................................................48 Iran....................................................................................................................................49 Turkey ...............................................................................................................................50 1 Media, Religious Leaders, & Personalities.............................................................................51 Events: Interpretations and Impacts ...........................................................................................52 Sumgait Pogrom ................................................................................................................53 Earthquake in Spitak..........................................................................................................54 Black January....................................................................................................................55 Operation ‘Ring’................................................................................................................55 August Coup and Dissolution of USSR...............................................................................56 PART II ....................................................................................................................................58 Categorization of the conflict.................................................................................................58 Rationalist Explanations ........................................................................................................59 The Commitment Problem..................................................................................................59 The Security Dilemma........................................................................................................61 Fear of Pure Uncertainty...................................................................................................63 Politicization of Rational Fear...........................................................................................64 Theories on Nagorno-Karabakh Case.....................................................................................65 Nagorno-Karabakh as a Commitment Problem..................................................................66 Shortcomings of the Commitment problem.........................................................................67 The Security Dilemma in Karabakh ...................................................................................71 Failure of Security Dilemma..............................................................................................72 Pure Uncertainty in Nagorno-Karabakh ............................................................................74 Limitations of the Model ....................................................................................................75 War in Karabakh as a Result of Politicization of Fear .......................................................77 Shortcomings of the Model.................................................................................................78 Common Fallacies of the Rational Choice Theories...............................................................79 Does Theory Help?................................................................................................................84 Aspects of Rationalist Models ............................................................................................84 Adding Ancient Hatreds Theory .........................................................................................86 Synthesis of the Symbolist Model........................................................................................90 Conclusions...............................................................................................................................93 Appendixes ...............................................................................................................................96 Appendix A .......................................................................................................................96 CEU eTD Collection Appendix B .......................................................................................................................97 Appendix C .......................................................................................................................98 Appendix D .......................................................................................................................99 SELECED BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................................................................100 2 Introduction Authoritarian and oppressive though their systems were, the socialist multiethnic states, the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia, managed to escape the nasty face of ethnic violence until the very last days of their existence. Beginning of the end was reached when the truly path-breaking reform package, perestroika, was proposed
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