Projected Population of Karnataka 2012-2021
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DES No. 22 of 2013 PROJECTED POPULATION OF KARNATAKA 2012-2021 (PROVISIONAL) Issued by: Directorate of Economics and Statistics Bangalore 2013 PREFACE The population census provides information on population and its other characteristics. The census being a decennial exercise does not provide the measure of population change from year to year. The measures of fertility and mortality derived from the census are centered on the mid-point of the decade and as such do not provide any change. Population is one of the most important items for which projections are often made. Though projections may not turn to be precise, they are indicative of the future trends and are useful to the demographers, administrators, planners and to the public at large in different ways. Projections of future populations are also required for preparation of five year plans. Academically also these forecasts are of invaluable utility. With this backdrop an attempt has been made to project the Provisional Population in Karnataka by districts and taluks for rural and urban units separately upto the year 2021. In this attempt only towns with a population of one lakh and above have been covered. These projections are based on the Geometric growth rates between 2001 and 2011 censuses. This exercise was carried out by Civil Registration & National Sample Survey Division of this Directorate. The efforts of Staff/Officers in bringing out this report is very much appreciated. Suggestions, if any for the improvement are most welcome. Date: 18.02.2013 H.E.Rajashekarappa Bangalore Director CONTENTS 1. Population projections for Karnataka 2012-2021- an introductory note. 2. District wise and Sector wise male & female Population-2011(Provisional) 3. Decadal variation in population, 1901-2011. 4. District wise and Sector wise male & female Growth rate 5. Projected population – District wise 6. Projected population - District and Taluk wise - Rural and Urban. ---#--- POPULATION PROJECTION FOR KARNATAKA 2012 – 2021 1. INTRODUCTION Planning process whether for development or administration or service is unthinkable without one or the other kind of population statistics. The practice of population count was prevalent even in the olden days in some form or other, in order to provide to the rulers a sound footing for administration. In India, the decennial head count or population census was launched in 1871 by the then British administration and eversince, these operations have witnessed history of more than a century. In view of the gigantic task involved in the process, in terms of men, material and money, the population census is taken decennially. For the intercensal period, interpolation techniques fill the gap. A fairly acceptable notion of the size of population for the years much ahead is absolutely necessary in the context of planned development, regulation of population growth and formulation of population policy. There are many factors influencing the demographic behaviour of a society viz., birth rate, death rate, fertility rate, migration and the like. Absence of these vital rates/data, that too for taluks/districts, render working out population projections with a high degree of precision, difficult. 2. UTILITY OF POPULATION PROJECTIONS. To meet the full range of planning needs most efficiently population projections are required for taluka as well as district levels. For a State like Karnataka which is in the forefront of administrative reforms, in the form of Gram Panchayat System, population projection would go a long way in efficient (a)block level planning (b) decision making (c) development programme formulation (d) family planning/welfare programme (e) immunisation programme etc. 3. METHOD OF PROJECTION In this paper, of the three methods, viz., mathematical, component and ratio, the mathematical method/model has been followed. Within this, the specific method followed is the Geometrical one. The distinguishing feature of the mathematical model is the employment of past trends, besides simplicity in calculation. These mathematical models are particularly useful when information on vital rates on birth, death, fertility, mortality, migration etc., at micro level are inadequate/not available. These models are widely used. The projections have been arrived at for rural and urban areas of each taluk separately , using the corresponding 2001-2011 growth rates of respective districts. These have been further aggregated to district and State population. The mathematical formula used for calculating growth rate is : ^t P = P o(1+r) ^t P/ P o = (1+r) Log 10 (P/ P o) = Log 10 [1+r] t x 10^ = [1+r] , where, x = Log 10 (P/ P o) r = [10 ^x ]-1 t Where, P = Provisional Population of 2011 census. P0 = Population of 2001 census. t = 10 years r = Growth rate.(The growth rate is the rate at which a population is increasing(or decreasing) in a given year.) 4 . LIMITAIONS OF THE POPULATION PROJECTIONS Projections are based on the assumption that demographic behaviour of the society or trends in population growth would remain more or less the same in the coming decade as in the past(2001-2011). It is for this reason that projections have an inherent degree of error as in the case of other forecasts. ---------- DISTRICTWISE AND SECTORWISE MALE & FEMALE POPULATION-2011 [PROVISIONAL] RURAL URBAN TOTAL DISTRICT NAME MALE FEMALE TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL MALE FEMALE TOTAL 1. BELGAUM 1813926 1753813 3567739 613178 597522 1210700 2427104 2351335 4778439 2. BAGALKOTE 651581 640455 1292036 301321 297469 598790 952902 937924 1890826 3. BIJAPUR 859254 815057 1674311 253699 247092 500791 1112953 1062149 2175102 4. BIDAR 652453 624194 1276647 218397 204974 423371 870850 829168 1700018 5. RAICHUR 720068 717291 1437359 246425 240989 487414 966493 958280 1924773 6. KOPPAL 584260 573399 1157659 117219 116414 233633 701479 689813 1391292 7. GADAG 348298 337152 685450 190179 189606 379785 538477 526758 1065235 8. DHARWAD 409828 387602 797430 529299 520264 1049563 939127 907866 1846993 9. UTTARA KANNADA 515867 502349 1018216 211557 207074 418631 727424 709423 1436847 10. HAVERI 638485 603957 1242442 180810 175254 356064 819295 779211 1598506 11. BELLARY 817014 796024 1613038 463388 455957 919345 1280402 1251981 2532383 12. CHITRADURGA 678352 653660 1332012 165059 163307 328366 843411 816967 1660378 13. DAVANAGERE 670545 647271 1317816 319057 310032 629089 989602 957303 1946905 14. SHIMOGA 568041 564245 1132286 311776 311450 623226 879817 875695 1755512 15. UDUPI 399458 444371 843829 163438 170641 334079 562896 615012 1177908 16.CHIKMAGALUR 448099 449980 898079 119384 120290 239674 567483 570270 1137753 17. TUMKUR 1050056 1028609 2078665 304714 298070 602784 1354770 1326679 2681449 18. BANGALORE-URBAN 464122 404849 868971 4561376 4158563 8719939 5025498 4563412 9588910 19. MANDYA 755235 744596 1499831 154206 154643 308849 909441 899239 1808680 20. HASSAN 697310 701904 1399214 188497 188510 377007 885807 890414 1776221 21. DAKSHINA KANNADA 541065 550823 1091888 491512 500225 991737 1032577 1051048 2083625 22. KODAGU 234262 239397 473659 40463 40640 81103 274725 280037 554762 23. MYSORE 890307 866105 1756412 620899 617433 1238332 1511206 1483538 2994744 24. CHAMARAJANAGARA 425680 419989 845669 87679 87614 175293 513359 507603 1020962 25. GULBARGA 882029 850269 1732298 425032 407562 832594 1307061 1257831 2564892 26. YADGIR 479834 472648 952482 111270 109233 220503 591104 581881 1172985 27. KOLAR 536486 520467 1056953 242915 240363 483278 779401 760830 1540231 28. CHIKKABALLAPURA 496413 478775 975188 141091 138098 279189 637504 616873 1254377 29. BANGALORE RURAL 370039 349525 719564 137475 130218 267693 507514 479743 987257 30. RAMANAGARA 412631 402755 815386 135429 131924 267353 548060 534679 1082739 STATE 19010998 18541531 37552529 12046744 11531431 23578175 31057742 30072962 61130704 DECADAL VARIATION IN POPULATION SINCE 1901 FOR STATE AND DISTRICTS Decadal variation(%) Sl. State/District No 1901-1911 1911-1921 1921-1931 1931-1941 1941-1951 1951-1961 1961-1971 1971-1981 1981-1991 1991-2001 2001-2011 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 KARNATAKA +3.60 -1.09 +9.38 +11.09 +19.36 +21.57 +24.22 +26.75 +21.12 +17.51 +15.67 1 BELGAUM -4.19 +0.46 +13.64 +13.97 +16.71 +20.53 +22.16 +22.94 +20.30 +17.61 +13.38 2 BAGALKOTE +5.25 -4.81 +7.60 +13.53 +15.97 +16.62 +20.74 +23.54 +20.79 +18.82 +14.46 3 BIJAPUR +22.65 -8.33 +10.83 +11.18 +21.45 +20.89 +18.61 +18.68 +22.94 +17.51 +20.38 4 BIDAR +18.95 -5.81 +9.51 +16.90 +7.45 +20.35 +24.26 +20.83 +26.12 +19.63 +13.16 5 RAICHUR +7.38 -9.59 +4.72 +10.34 +6.16 +19.29 +26.76 +28.84 +30.53 +23.52 +15.27 6 KOPPAL +7.38 -4.94 +9.37 +12.16 +18.32 +10.57 +31.44 +22.27 +28.05 +24.84 +16.32 7 GADAG -5.98 +5.72 +0.17 +12.19 +10.97 +20.43 +18.35 +19.37 +15.56 +13.13 +9.61 8 DHARWAD -7.91 +2.48 +8.21 +8.28 +18.29 +25.24 +26.76 +31.26 +19.64 +16.68 +15.13 9 U.KANNADA -5.27 -6.69 +4.01 +5.58 +17.37 +33.16 +23.13 +26.38 +13.66 +10.93 +6.15 10 HAVERI -7.74 -5.17 +10.46 +7.45 +19.67 +24.95 +14.87 +24.76 +20.53 +13.39 +11.08 11 BELLARY -0.94 -13.22 +12.04 +10.21 +20.58 +19.89 +24.21 +33.64 +26.84 +22.41 +24.92 12 CHITRADURGA +11.19 +3.71 +13.31 +9.20 +16.40 +25.97 +21.30 +21.13 +20.51 +15.63 +9.39 13 DAVANGERE +4.16 -6.86 +15.74 +10.15 +17.62 +25.84 +29.99 +32.44 +23.07 +14.86 +8.71 14 SHIMOGA -4.10 -3.59 +3.05 +4.43 +24.91 +60.31 +29.57 +27.59 +15.11 +13.10 +6.88 15 UDUPI +3.38 +2.89 +6.59 +8.69 +13.50 +12.67 +19.55 +22.31 +9.42 +7.14 +5.90 16 CHIKMAGALUR -5.79 -1.45 +4.25 +3.04 +16.54 +43.05 +23.33 +23.77 +11.57 +12.15 -0.28 17 TUMKUR +9.97 +5.15 +11.12 +10.73 +20.46 +18.76 +19.04