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No More Hills Ahead? No More Hills Ahead? The Sudan’s Tortuous Ascent to Heights of Peace Emeric Rogier August 2005 NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS CLINGENDAEL CIP-Data Koninklijke bibliotheek, The Hague Rogier, Emeric No More Hills Ahead? The Sudan’s Tortuous Ascent to Heights of Peace / E. Rogier – The Hague, Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael. Clingendael Security Paper No. 1 ISBN 90-5031-102-4 Language-editing by Rebecca Solheim Desk top publishing by Birgit Leiteritz Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael Clingendael Security and Conflict Programme Clingendael 7 2597 VH The Hague Phonenumber +31(0)70 - 3245384 Telefax +31(0)70 - 3282002 P.O. Box 93080 2509 AB The Hague E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.clingendael.nl The Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael is an independent institute for research, training and public information on international affairs. It publishes the results of its own research projects and the monthly ‘Internationale Spectator’ and offers a broad range of courses and conferences covering a wide variety of international issues. It also maintains a library and documentation centre. © Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the copyrightholders. Clingendael Institute, P.O. Box 93080, 2509 AB The Hague, The Netherlands. Contents Foreword i Glossary of Abbreviations iii Executive Summary v Map of Sudan viii Introduction 1 Chapter 1 The Sudan: A State of War 5 I. The Sudan’s First War 6 1) A Few Features of the Sudanese State 6 2) Genesis and Dynamics of the Civil War 9 3) Terms and Failure of the 1972 Addis Ababa Peace Agreement 13 II. The Sudan’s Second War 17 1) The Politics of War 18 2) The Domestic Players: The Sudan’s Civil War(s) 22 3) The External Players: The Sudan’s Regional War 30 Chapter 2 A Peacemaking Battlefield 37 I. The Traffic Jam of Regional Peace Initiatives 37 1) Nigerian Initiatives 38 2) The IGAD Peace Initiative 39 3) The Joint Libyan-Egyptian Initiative 42 II. The Road to Machakos 45 1) A New Context: the ‘9-11’ Effect 45 2) A New Process: The Danforth Initiative 57 3) The Machakos Breakthrough 64 Chapter 3 The Naivasha Process 71 I. In Search of Effective Compliance Mechanisms 72 1) The JMC, CPMT and VMT: The Sudan’s UFOs 72 2) The Threat of Sanctions 80 II. The Negotiation Process 89 1) The First Negotiation Phase: Turning in Rounds 90 2) The Second Negotiation Phase: Face-to-Face 93 3) The Third Negotiation Phase: The Shadow of Darfur 95 Chapter 4 The (Un-) Comprehensive Peace Agreement 105 I. Power-Sharing Arrangements 106 1) Power-Sharing at the National Level 107 2) Asymmetrical Federalism 111 3) The Three Areas 113 II. Security Arrangements 120 1) Separate Armed Forces, Joint/Integrated Units 121 2) Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration Challenges 123 3) Ceasefire Provisions and Monitoring Structures 126 III. Wealth-Sharing Arrangements 129 1) A Dual Mechanism for Reconstruction and Development 130 2) Sharing Oil and Non-Oil Revenues 131 3) Dual Banking and Monetary System 132 4) Shortcomings of the Wealth-Sharing Agreement 133 Conclusion 141 Bibliography 149 Foreword This is the first issue in the Clingendael Security Papers, a series of occasional papers published by the Netherlands Institute of International Relations Clingendael. The Security Papers’ series serves as an outlet of the Clingendael Security and Conflict Programme (CSCP). This publication, ‘No More Hills Ahead? The Sudan’s Tortuous Ascent to Heights of Peace’, launches the Security Papers’ Series by analysing the peace process of one of Africa’s longest lasting conflicts. The paper is part of a series of reports from a larger project on Resolving Intractable Conflicts in Africa, executed by the Conflict Research Unit at the request of the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The author, Emeric Rogier, provides a thorough analysis of the peace process and the resulting agreement. He concludes that the peace agreement provides no final settlement for the Sudan’s conflicts but merely opens a highly fluid transition period with a greatly uncertain outcome. A peaceful and united Sudan will require moving beyond the north- south paradigm, and broadening the scope and support base of the agreement in order to make it really comprehensive. This will require sustained, well- thought, and well-coordinated international engagement. The research activities of the CSCP focus on a broad variety of issues related to international security such as strategic and defence studies, terrorism and new security threats, national and international security policies, and international conflict management and resolution. The Conflict Research Unit (CRU) of the CSCP runs special projects with a focus on issues such as i stability assessments, reform of the security sector, post-conflict reconstruction and democracy assistance. The geographical focus of this research is mainly on Africa. Clients of the CSCP and its specialized unit and centre are ministries of interior, defence and foreign affairs (both in the Netherlands and abroad), NGOs and other international organisations. In addition to research, the CSCP and CRU also provide customised training programmes for professionals in the field of security management and policy, as well as development cooperation. In a joint venture with the Netherlands Organization for Applied Scientific Research (TNO), the CSCP also harbours the Clingendael Centre for Strategic Studies (CCSS). The CCSS aims to provide strategic analyses combined with cutting-edge technological expertise in the field of international security. Its work focuses on concept and doctrine development, defence and security technology, and operations research and simulation games. Copies of the paper can be ordered from [email protected] Prof. Dr. Rob de Wijk Director, Clingendael Security and Conflict Programme ii Glossary of Abbreviations AJMC Area Joint Military Committee AMIS African Union Mission in Sudan AU African Union CJMC Ceasefire Joint Military Committee CPA Comprehensive Peace Agreement CPC Ceasefire Political Commission CPMT Civilian Protection Monitoring Team CRU Conflict Research Unit CSIS Center for Strategic and International Studies DDR Disarmament, Demobilisation, Reintegration DoP Declaration of Principles DRC Democratic Republic of the Congo DUP Democratic Unionist Party FFAMC Fiscal and Financial Allocation and Monitoring Commission FoNM Friends of the Nuba Mountains GNU Government of National Unity GoS Government of Sudan GoSS Government of Southern Sudan HIPC Heavily Indebted Poor Countries HRW Human Rights Watch ICC International Criminal Court ICG International Crisis Group IGAD Intergovernmental Authority for Development iii IMF International Monetary Fund IPF IGAD Partners Forum JDB Joint Defence Board JEM Justice and Equality Movement JIU Joint Integrated Unit JLEI Joint Libyan-Egyptian Initiative JMM/JMC Joint Monitoring Mission / Joint Military Commission LRA Lord’s Resistance Army MDTF Multi-Donor Trust Fund NCP National Congress Party NDA National Democratic Alliance NIF National Islamic Front NMRD National Movement for Reform and Development NPC National Petroleum Commission NRDF National Reconstruction and Development Fund NRF National Revenue Fund OAG Other Armed Group PDF Popular Defence Forces PNC Popular National Congress SAF Sudanese Armed Forces SANU Sudan African Nationalist Union SLM/A Sudan Liberation Movement/Army SPA Sudan Peace Act SPDF Sudan People’s Defence Force SPLM/A Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army SPLA-United Sudan People’s Liberation Army-United SRSG Special Representative of the Secretary General SSDF South Sudan Defence Forces SSIM/A Southern Sudan Independence Movement/Army SSLM South Sudan Liberation Movement SSRDF South Sudan Reconstruction and Development Fund UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNMIS United Nations Mission in Sudan USAID United States Agency for International Development VMT Verification Monitoring Team iv Executive Summary The present study was undertaken in the framework of the research project ‘Resolving Intractable Conflicts in Africa’, which focuses on international conflict management and resolution strategies. This paper provides a thorough narrative and analysis of the Sudan peace process – or the Sudan’s ‘tortuous ascent to heights of peace’ to use John Garang’s words – from the failed peace attempts of the early 1990s to the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in January 2005. The Sudan has been at war with itself for almost 40 of its 50 years of existence. The first chapter provides a concise conflict history, from the eruption of the Sudan’s first war on the eve of independence to the failure of the 1972 Addis Ababa Agreement and the intensification of the second war after the 1989 NIF coup. Although the Sudan is the largest African country and one of the most heterogeneous in the continent, it is argued that the civil wars were not rooted in population diversity but in exclusive governance. The Sudan’s first and second wars are therefore similar in some of their causes, in particular the Sudanese government’s failure to honour its commitment on southern autonomy. While in 1956 southerners were not granted the special arrangements
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