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ALBANIA COPYRIGHT © 2021 by the World Bank Group 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE ALBANIA COPYRIGHT © 2021 by the World Bank Group 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of the World Bank Group (WBG) and with external contributions. The opinions, findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or the official policy or position of the WBG, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments it represents. The WBG does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work and do not make any warranty, express or implied, nor assume any liability or responsibility for any consequence of their use. This publication follows the WBG’s practice in references to member designations, borders, and maps. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work, or the use of the term “country” do not imply any judgment on the part of the WBG, its Boards, or the governments it represents, concerning the legal status of any territory or geographic area or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The mention of any specific companies or products of manufacturers does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by the WBG in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because the WBG encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Please cite the work as follows: Climate Risk Profile: Albania (2021): The World Bank Group. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: [email protected]. Cover Photos: © Genti Shkullaku/World Bank, “Fisherman preparing fishing nets for the next hunting season” July 3, 2012 via Flickr, Creative Commons CC BY-NC-ND 2.0. © Ana Gjokutaj/World Bank, “New rural roads provide access to markets” June 25, 2012 via Flickr, Creative Commons CC BY-NC-ND 2.0. Graphic Design: Circle Graphics, Reisterstown, MD. CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: ALBANIA ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This profile is part of a series of Climate Risk Country Profiles developed by the World Bank Group (WBG). The country profile synthesizes most relevant data and information on climate change, disaster risk reduction, and adaptation actions and policies at the country level. The country profile series are designed as a quick reference source for development practitioners to better integrate climate resilience in development planning and policy making. This effort is managed and led by Veronique Morin (Senior Climate Change Specialist, WBG) and Ana E. Bucher (Senior Climate Change Specialist, WBG). This profile was written by MacKenzie Dove (Senior Climate Change Consultant, WBG). Additional support was provided by Yunziyi Lang (Climate Change Analyst, WBG) and Jason Johnston (Operations Analyst, WBG). Climate and climate-related information is largely drawn from the Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP), a WBG online platform with available global climate data and analysis based on the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports and datasets. The team is grateful for all comments and suggestions received from the sector, regional, and country development specialists, as well as climate research scientists and institutions for their advice and guidance on use of climate related datasets. CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: ALBANIA iii CONTENTS FOREWORD . 1 COUNTRY OVERVIEW . 2 CLIMATOLOGY . 4 Climate Baseline 4 Overview 4 Key Trends 7 Climate Future 8 Overview 8 Key Trends 10 CLIMATE RELATED NATURAL HAZARDS . 12 Overview 12 Key Trends 13 Implications for DRM 14 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS TO KEY SECTORS . 15 Agriculture 16 Water 18 Energy 21 Health 24 Coastal Zones 26 ADAPTATION . 28 Institutional Framework for Adaptation 28 Policy Framework for Adaptation 28 Recommendations 29 Research Gaps 29 Data and Information Gaps 29 Institutional Gaps 30 CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: ALBANIA iv FOREWORD Climate change is a major risk to good development outcomes, and the World Bank Group is committed to playing an important role in helping countries integrate climate action into their core development agendas. The World Bank Group is committed to supporting client countries to invest in and build a low-carbon, climate-resilient future, helping them to be better prepared to adapt to current and future climate impacts. The World Bank Group is investing in incorporating and systematically managing climate risks in development operations through its individual corporate commitments. A key aspect of the World Bank Group’s Action Plan on Adaptation and Resilience (2019) is to help countries shift from addressing adaptation as an incremental cost and isolated investment to systematically incorporating climate risks and opportunities at every phase of policy planning, investment design, implementation and evaluation of development outcomes. For all IDA and IBRD operations, climate and disaster risk screening is one of the mandatory corporate climate commitments. This is supported by the Bank Group’s Climate and Disaster Risk Screening Tool which enables all Bank staff to assess short- and long-term climate and disaster risks in operations and national or sectoral planning processes. This screening tool draws up-to-date and relevant information from the World Bank’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal, a comprehensive online ‘one-stop shop’ for global, regional, and country data related to climate change and development. Recognizing the value of consistent, easy-to-use technical resources for client countries as well as to support respective internal climate risk assessment and adaptation planning processes, the World Bank Group’s Climate Change Group has developed this content. Standardizing and pooling expertise facilitates the World Bank Group in conducting initial assessments of climate risks and opportunities across sectors within a country, within institutional portfolios across regions, and acts as a global resource for development practitioners. For developing countries, the climate risk profiles are intended to serve as public goods to facilitate upstream country diagnostics, policy dialogue, and strategic planning by providing comprehensive overviews of trends and projected changes in key climate parameters, sector-specific implications, relevant policies and programs, adaptation priorities and opportunities for further actions. It is my hope that these efforts will spur deepening of long-term risk management in developing countries and our engagement in supporting climate change adaptation planning at operational levels. Bernice Van Bronkhorst Global Director Climate Change Group (CCG) The World Bank Group (WBG) CLIMATE RISK COUNTRY PROFILE: ALBANIA 1 COUNTRY OVERVIEW lbania is a small mountainous country on the western side of the Balkan peninsula in Southeastern Europe, with a land area of 28,748 square kilometers (km2). Albania shares borders with Montenegro to the Anorthwest, Kosovo to the northeast, North Macedonia to the east and Greece to the south. The country has a long coastline along the Adriatic and Ionian Seas which forms the majority of its western border. 70% of Albania’s territory is mountainous with an average altitude of 700 meters (m) above sea level; in the east, Mount Korab is the maximum altitude at 2,753 m. Mountainous and hilly areas are located in three regions: Northern, Central, and Southern, while the plains occur to the West along the Adriatic coast, between Hani Hoti in the North and Vlora in the South. Albania enjoys a Mediterranean climate, with mild and humid winters followed by hot and dry summers. The country experiences rainfall primarily during the second half of the year, however, climate conditions differ considerably between agro-ecological zones. The coastal plains experience a strong maritime influence, causing a gradient of lower temperatures and reduced precipitation eastwards from the coast.1 Albania is classified as a middle-income country and became an official candidate for accession to the European Union in 2014. Albania has a population of 2.9 million people (2019) with an annual population growth rate at −0.4% (2018). Albania’s is projected to reach 2.7 million people by 2030 and 2.3 million people by 2050 (Table 1). An estimated 69.5% of the country’s population currently resides in urban areas, which is expected to increase to 78.2% by 2050.2 The country has a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of $15.2 billion (2019), growing at a rate of 2.2% annually, as of 20193 (Table 1). Following the dissolution of the Socialist Republic in the early 1990s, free market reforms began to open Albania to foreign investment.4 The country has realized strong economic growth performance over the last 30 years, growing from the poorest nation in Europe in the early 1990s to middle income status in 2008; poverty declined by half during that period. However, Albania has experienced two significant shocks that have hit the country: the 2019 earthquake and the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in the economy experiencing a sharp contraction of 10.2% in the second quarter of 2020. Poverty (at $5.5 per day) is estimated to have increased in 2020 by 1%, equivalent to 28,000 new poor. Albania is implementing important structural reforms that will support equitable growth, and is expected to raise productivity and competitiveness in the economy, create more jobs, and improve governance and public service delivery. Enhanced regional connectivity and access to regional and global markets, coupled with export and market diversification, can also help promote faster growth. Prior to the Pandemic, the Government of Albania had been working on a broad-based reform program focused on macroeconomic and fiscal sustainability, financial sector stabilization, energy reform, social assistance and disability reform, and territorial decentralization.5 1 Republic of Albania (2016).
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