Of Production, Value, Losses and Protection of Fruit Fly Hosts in India
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Integrated Management of Fruit Flies in India (IMFFI) “Key Informant Survey” of Production, Value, Losses and Protection of Fruit Fly Hosts in India Workplan and Data Sheets John Stonehouse, Imperial College London Dear Colleague, The objective of the IMFFI Key Informant Survey is to obtain estimates, across the whole of India, for the following values:- - Production of fruit fly hosts, divided among the major agro-ecological zones - Farm-gate prices of fruit fly host produce - Losses to fruit flies, host-by-host and zone-by-zone, both with and without fly controls - Incidence of controls, host-by-host and zone-by-zone - The relative incidence of the major pest species in causing losses, separately for the two categories of orchard fruit and cucurbit vegetables Preliminary estimates have now been obtained and are being circulated, and all recipients are requested to comment on them. The idea is that the numbers so far will be looked at by everybody, they will comment, and then the revised numbers will be progressively improved. Please discuss these as widely as possible with colleagues and associates, and derive what, in your view, are more appropriate or more accurate values, and transmit your corrections to Dr John Stonehouse, IMFFI Project Manager, Imperial College London, UK (fax 00-44-1947-841189; e-mail [email protected]). The principle of this circulating request is that the estimates will become gradually more accurate as more and more refining opinions are received and absorbed. It thus uses the principle of Bayesian algebra, in which successive estimates, subjective if need be, are used to refine and improve each other, and of Delphi consultations, in which opinions are circulated anonymously and discussed among a group. The estimates follow below. On all pages columns are in pairs - “Initial” columns contain the values as estimated so far; “Revised” columns are empty and for the respondents (i.e. you) to write in corrections/alterations if you disagree with the “Initial” values. Leave the “Revised” cell empty if you do not disagree with the “Initial” value or don’t know anything about it. Production data are estimated nationwide, and then estimates attributed to production, loss and protection in the major agro-ecological zones into which ICAR divides India. These zones are shown on the map below. IMFFI Fruit Fly Key Informant Survey Workplan and Data Sheets – Page 1 of 1 The estimates fall into three categories, on three different data sheets:- 1. Production and farm-gate value of major hosts nationwide as, host-by-host: a - Production volume for the whole of India per annum b - Overall average farm-gate price - the price received by the farmer in rupees/KG. 2. Production and fruit fly losses, host-by-host for each different agro-ecological zone: 2A - Relative levels of production of each host across zones, estimated by awarding a score of “100” to the zone with the greatest level of production of that host, and then others for the other zones as a percentage of that. The role of the “Volume” values in Sheet 2 is therefore to allocate the RELATIVE incidence of production of different hosts to different areas (the absolute levels of production are in Sheet 1). Volume figures are levels of production by that host in that zone as a percentage of the production in the zone where it is most abundant. So if Zone A has most production it is awarded 100; Zone B may be 80% of A so gets 80; Zone C may be 15% of A so gets 15; Zone D may be 30% of Zone A so gets 30; and all the other zones have no production so all get 0. Imperial College will then adjust these by adding up the percentages, so of the total nationwide production A would account for 100/(100+80+15+30)=44%, B would account for 80/(100+80+15+30)=36%, C for 15/(100+80+15+30)=7%, D for 30/(100+80+15+30)=13%, and the others for 0%. (Enter “0” for cultivation of any host in any zone where cultivation is absent). 2B - Percentage losses to fruit flies, when hosts are not protected from them in any way. 2C - Percentage losses to fruit flies, when hosts are protected by local controls as currently in use. 2D - The percentage incidence of the local controls whose effect is assessed in 2C. “Control incidence” in Sheet 2 is the percentage of production of that particular host which is protected against fruit flies at farm level. Protection from fruit flies may be provided by controls such as cover sprays which are not directed at them, and these should be included 3. Prevalence in causing damage, relative to each other, of the various major fruit fly species, in the two broad categories of orchard fruit pests and cucurbit pests. This is estimated by, in each agro- ecological zone, grading the most prevalent fly species with a score of “100” and the other flies present with a prevalence as a percentage of that. Values in Table 3, in other words, are the RELATIVE levels of damage caused by different fly species to the two major host groups (fruit and cucurbits) in each zone. So, as an example, imagine that in any one particular zone dorsalis is most damaging, it is awarded 100, zonata causes about 3/4 of the damage of dorsalis and so it is awarded 75%, and correcta causes about a third of the damage of dorsalis and so is awarded 33%. Imperial College will then attribute damage to the species by adding up the percentages awarded, so here overall damage by dorsalis would be 100/(100+75+33)=48%, zonata would be 75/(100+75+33)=36%, and correcta would be 33/(100+75+33)=16%. As another example, if in a given zone the prevalence is of 50% of B cucurbitae, 30% of D ciliatus and 20% of B tau, scores would be awarded as “100” for cucurbitae, “60” (30/50) for ciliatus and “40” (20/50) for tau. Scoring is done in this way to allow values to be modified while under discussion without worrying whether they add up to 100; after the consultation is complete the totals for each species in IMFFI Fruit Fly Key Informant Survey Workplan and Data Sheets – Page 2 of 2 each zone will be divided by the total scores awarded in that zone to obtain final percentage values. These values, once collected from all participants, will allow the estimation of losses to flies across all hosts and zones. Respondents are requested to provide corrected values where they consider the values given to be in error, and next to each provisional, current value there is a vacant cell for the entry of corrections. Values which are considered to be correct may be left as they are. Please also indicate where a category, such as major host type under (1) or a major pest species under (3), has been omitted and needs to be added. The map below lists the major agro-ecological zones of India (the external boundaries of India on this map have not been authenticated and may not be correct). Your assistance in this Study is gratefully appreciated, and will contribute to a useful body of work. Best wishes, John Stonehouse Himalayan Highlands West - J&K - Himachal - Uttaranchal Punjab/Ganga Plain - Punjab Himalayan - Haryana Highlands - Delhi East Arid/Semi-Arid West - UP - Rajasthan - Bihar - Gujarat - D&D Bengal Basin - West Bengal West-Central - Assam /Lava Plateau - Maharashtra - MP Semi-Arid/Semi-Humid East - Orissa - Jharkand - Chhatisgarh South - AP - Goa - Karnataka - Tamil Nadu - Kerala Principal Agroecological Zones of India IMFFI Fruit Fly Key Informant Survey Workplan and Data Sheets – Page 3 of 3 Sheet 1. All-India estimates of volumes of production All volume data are lakhs of metric tonnes (1MT=1000kg) per year nationwide. All price data are Rupees/KG at the farm gate. Volume Price Orchard fruit Initial Revised Initial Revised Mango 99 10 Guava 18 6 Jujube 1.5 6 Sapota 1 7 Phalsa 0.5 8 Peach 0.5 9 Apricot 0.5 9 Cucurbits Cucumber 28 20 Muskmelon 30 6 Watermelon 7 3.5 Cooking melon 2 5 Pumpkin 10 3.5 Bitter gourd 10 15 Small gourd 8 15 Ridge gourd 8 5 Bottle gourd 3.5 5 Snake gourd 5 7.5 Sponge gourd 2.5 5 Chayot/Chao-Chao 2 5 Ash gourd 10 5 Sweet gourd 2 10 IMFFI Fruit Fly Key Informant Survey Workplan and Data Sheets – Page 4 of 4 Sheet 2. Production and fruit fly losses, host-by-host and zone-by-zone A: Relative B: % Loss C: % Loss D: % Control Volume Unprotected Protected Incidence Product: Mango Initial Revised Initial Revised Initial Revised Initial Revised Himalayan Highlands West 2 20 2 40 Punjab/Ganga Plain 100 6 2 70 Arid/Semi-Arid West 8 3 1 80 West-Central/Lava Plateau 25 3 1 80 South 35 25 3 50 Semi-Arid/Semi-Humid East 20 23 3 35 Bengal Basin 6 23 3 35 Himalayan Highlands East 1 10 3 30 Product: Guava Himalayan Highlands West 0 10 2 0 Punjab/Ganga Plain 100 12 3 0 Arid/Semi-Arid West 4 4 1 0 West-Central/Lava Plateau 10 10 2 0 South 10 10 2 0 Semi-Arid/Semi-Humid East 40 40 10 0 Bengal Basin 0 30 7 0 Himalayan Highlands East 0 10 2 0 Product: Jujube Himalayan Highlands West 0 10 2 5 Punjab/Ganga Plain 30 12 3 5 Arid/Semi-Arid West 100 4 1 5 West-Central/Lava Plateau 20 10 2 5 South 0 10 2 5 Semi-Arid/Semi-Humid East 4 40 10 5 Bengal Basin 1 30 7 5 Himalayan Highlands East 0 10 2 5 Product: Sapota Himalayan Highlands West 0 10 2 5 Punjab/Ganga Plain 100 12 3 5 Arid/Semi-Arid West 100 4 1 5 West-Central/Lava Plateau 20 10 2 5 South 20 10 2 5 Semi-Arid/Semi-Humid East 20 40 10 5 Bengal Basin 0 30 7 5 Himalayan Highlands East 0 10 2 5 IMFFI Fruit Fly Key Informant Survey Workplan and Data Sheets – Page 5 of 5 Product: Phalsa Himalayan Highlands West 0 10 2 5 Punjab/Ganga Plain 100 12 3 5 Arid/Semi-Arid West 100 4 1 5 West-Central/Lava Plateau 70 10 2 5 South 0 10 2 5 Semi-Arid/Semi-Humid East