August 2020

Monthly Forecast

1 Overview Overview 2 In Hindsight: Six Days, Five Resolutions, One Border Crossing has the presidency of the Security the programme of work. There will be the three 4 Status Update since our Council in August. While the Security Council monthly meetings: open and closed VTCs July Forecast is expected to continue to work largely remote- on the political and humanitarian situation and 6 Counter-Terrorism ly, due to COVID-19 restrictions, it may hold a closed VTC on the use of chemical weapons. some meetings on UN premises. Unless there The monthly meetings on developments in 7 Iraq are further refinements made to the temporary and on the situation in the Middle East, including 9 Syria provisional measures agreed to over the last few the Palestinian Question are also planned in both 10 -Bissau months, remote meetings will continue to be open and closed format. In addition, the Council 13 Lebanon deemed as unofficial and held as videoconferenc- will meet for a briefing on recent developments 14 Pandemics, es (VTC), either open (briefings, debates or open in Iraq and on the two latest Secretary-General’s Peacebuilding and debates) or closed (consultations). A 24-hour reports, on the UN Assistance Mission in Iraq and Sustaining Peace written procedure will continue to be used for on the issue of missing Kuwaiti and third-country 16 Yemen adoptions unless members agree to hold an in- nationals and missing Kuwaiti property, including person meeting. the national archives. 17 There will be a strong focus on counter-terror- Meetings in open and closed format are also 19 DPRK (North Korea) ism issues. Indonesia has chosen to hold a minis- planned ahead of adoptions to renew the UN 20 terial-level open debate on the linkages between missions in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and Somalia terrorism and transnational organised crime. (UNSOM). An adoption is also expected to renew The possible briefers are UN Secretary-General the Mali sanctions regime, as well as the mandate António Guterres, Under-Secretary-General of of its Panel of Experts. the UN Office of Counter-Terrorism Vladimir The Council will be briefed on the latest Sec- Voronkov, and Executive Director of the UN retary-General’s report on the UN Integrated Office on Drugs and Crime, Ghada Waly. There Peacebuilding Office inGuinea-Bissau (UNIOG- will also be a briefing on the Secretary-General’s BIS), as well as developments in the country fol- biannual strategic-level report on the threat posed lowing the post-electoral crisis earlier in the year. by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL The quarterly briefing by the chair of the 1718 or Da’esh). The expected briefers are Voronkov DPRK Sanctions Committee in a closed session and Executive Director of the Counter-Terrorism is also anticipated in August. Executive Directorate Michèle Coninsx. Council members may also participate in a Indonesia’s other open debate is peacebuilding “virtual visiting mission” to meet with key stake- and challenges posed by pandemics to sustaining holders in Somalia ahead of the adoption. peace. This follows the Informal Interactive Dia- The Council will be watching developments logue on the same topic in July. The likely briefers in , , Libya, and , include Guterres, former Secretary-General Ban as well as those related to the Grand Ethiopian Ki-moon and Sarah Cliffe, Director of New York Renaissance Dam, and additional meetings may University’s Center on International Cooperation. be added as necessary. Several regular Middle East meetings are on

31 July 2020 This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org.

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Security Council Report Monthly Forecast August 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 1 In Hindsight: Six Days, Five Resolutions, One Border Crossing

During the second week of July, the Secu- December 2019, as two competing draft res- would re-authorise the Bab al-Salam and rity Council struggled to re-authorise the olutions—tabled by co-penholders Belgium, Bab al-Hawa crossings for 12 months. Rus- Syria cross-border humanitarian aid deliv- Germany and Kuwait and by —were sia, China and the US broke silence on the ery mechanism, which was set to expire at vetoed and received an insufficient number text for different reasons, all of which would midnight on Friday, 10 July. Only after four of affirmative votes, respectively. When reso- continue to bedevil the negotiations. Russia draft resolutions failed to be adopted did the lution 2504 was adopted on 10 January, the argued that the text did not take into account Council finally reach agreement. The pro- mandate was renewed for only six months its positions on the initial draft circulated cess that eventually led to the adoption of rather than 12, and while Bab al-Salam and on 16 June, while China advocated for lan- resolution 2533 was acrimonious and not Bab al-Hawa were re-authorised, the al- guage supporting Secretary-General António only resulted in the Council’s re-authorising Ramtha and the Al Yarubiyah crossings were Guterres’ call in March to waive sanctions, just a single border crossing—thus reducing removed. Resolution 2504 was adopted by a in general, to allow countries access to food, the UN’s capacity to deliver humanitarian vote of 11 in favour, none against, and four essential health supplies, and COVID-19 assistance to Syria’s north-west—but again abstentions, including China and Russia; the medical support, and requesting the Secre- laid bare the Council’s deep divisions over UK abstained arguing that 2504 “reduce[d]s tary-General to report on the impact of sanc- Syria. Russia and China vetoed two resolu- aid provision for vulnerable populations” and tions on Syria. The US wanted the text to also tions in the course of the week, and two Rus- the US, also abstaining, said that the reso- include the re-authorisation of the Al Yarubi- sian-sponsored texts failed to reach enough lution was “wholly inadequate to the needs yah crossing for six months. votes to pass. The challenge of the week’s of the Syrian people”. In short, though there With an impending expiration of the negotiations and multiple failed votes was had already been strong hints of Russia’s and cross-border mandate, the co-penholders exacerbated by the way the Council has had China’s wish to move from cross-border to put in blue a draft resolution on Monday, 6 to work during the COVID-19 pandemic, cross-line delivery of humanitarian assistance July. The Council had agreed in March to with a written voting procedure and lack of in previous years, the period from December a 24-hour written adoption procedure in in-person meetings. 2019 to January 2020 brought this to the fore. response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which meant that unlike normal circumstances, the Background on the Cross-Border A Circuitous Path to Adoption Council would not be able to vote relatively Mechanism It was no surprise, then, that the process that swiftly on another draft resolution if this draft The UN cross-border aid delivery mecha- led to the adoption of resolution 2533 on was not adopted. As had been widely antici- nism was established by resolution 2165, 11 July proved difficult. Negotiations began pated, the draft resolution was vetoed by Rus- which was unanimously adopted on 14 July on 16 June, with the Syria humanitarian co- sia and China. 2014. It authorised UN agencies and human- penholders (Belgium and Germany) circu- On Wednesday, 8 July, a draft resolu- itarian partners, with notification to the Syr- lating an initial draft that contained both the tion circulated by Russia and calling for re- ian authorities, to use the border crossings renewal of the Bab al-Salam and Bab al-Hawa authorisation of one border crossing, at Bab at Bab al-Salam and Bab al-Hawa (both on crossings for 12 months and the re-authorisa- al-Hawa, for six months, was not adopted, the Syrian-Turkish border), Al Yarubiyah (on tion of the Al Yarubiyah crossing for an initial having received only four votes in favour the Syrian-Iraqi border) and Al-Ramtha (on period of six months in light of the impact of (Russia, China, Viet Nam and ), the Syrian-Jordanian border) “to ensure that COVID-19, with a review to assess if another with seven against (Belgium, the Dominican assistance, including medical and surgical six months would be needed. It seemed that Republic, Estonia, , Germany, the UK supplies, reached people in need throughout most Council members—including all ten and the US) and four abstentions (Indone- Syria through the most direct routes”. The elected members—supported keeping Bab al- sia, , Saint Vincent and the Grenadines mechanism was subsequently renewed annu- Salam and Bab al-Hawa open. A number of and ). On Friday morning, 10 July, a ally by unanimous vote in December 2014 members also argued that the Council should new co-penholders’ draft, calling for the re- (resolution 2191), December 2015 (resolu- authorise the re-opening of Al Yarubiyah giv- authorisation of the Bab al-Salam and Bab al- tion 2258) and December 2016 (resolution en the potentially devastating impact that Hawa border crossings for six months instead 2332). Beginning with resolution 2393 in COVID-19 could have on Syria’s north-east. of 12, was again vetoed by Russia and China, December 2017, consensus on the Coun- No Council members officially commented with all other Council members supporting cil began to unravel, with China and Russia on the text. Shortly before the second round the text. Later that evening, a second Russian (joined by ) abstaining on the mech- of negotiations on the text, however, Russia draft resolution that would have re-autho- anism’s renewal. They abstained again on informed Council members that its starting rised Bab al-Hawa for 12 months was voted resolution 2449 in December 2018, which negotiating position was to close Bab al-Salam down. China and Russia were again joined extended the mechanism for another year. and renew only Bab al-Hawa for six months. by South Africa and Viet Nam in support- The stark cleavages that characterised last Recognising that including Al Yarubiyah ing the text. Seven members voted against month’s negotiations had been building over was a clear red line for Russia and could also (Belgium, the , Estonia, the previous years but became fully evident reduce the support of the Council’s elected France, Germany, the UK and the US), and this past December and January. The Council members, on Saturday, 4 July, the co-pen- four abstained (Indonesia, Niger, Saint Vin- failed to re-authorise the mechanism on 20 holders put under silence a draft text that cent and the Grenadines and Tunisia).

2 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast August 2020 In Hindsight: Six Days, Five Resolutions, One Border Crossing

Matters were coming down to the wire, reiterated its long-held view that the “sover- Syria discussions in the coming months. with the expiry of the existing cross-border eignty and territorial integrity of the country The Dominican Republic’s abstention on authorisation only hours away. The penhold- concerned, and the will of its Government the final draft resolution notwithstanding, the ers floated the idea of a new draft resolution must be respected”. elected members remained largely unified over that would include the re-authorisation of the The second contentious issue was the the course of the week, a signal to the perma- Bab al-Hawa crossing for 12 months and the impact of unilateral sanctions on Syria. Rus- nent members that they placed a high priority Bab al-Salam crossing for three months. When sia and China, in particular, argued through- on the preservation of the cross-border mecha- it became clear that Russia would not accept out the negotiations that sanctions have had nism. But the elected members did not form a the three-month re-authorisation for Bab al- a severely negative impact on Syria’s humani- monolith: South Africa and Viet Nam were the Salam, the penholders put in blue on Friday tarian situation, while the US and European only two elected members that voted in favour evening a draft that did not include it. As Rus- members of the Council maintain that criti- of the two Russian drafts, suggesting that they sia had already proposed a text that included cal humanitarian goods and medical supplies were prepared to vote for any text that would only Bab al-Hawa for 12 months, it seemed are exempt from sanctions. The two failed have kept the cross-border mechanism, in plausible that it would not veto the co-penhold- Russian drafts included language requesting whatever form, functioning. There were also ers’ new draft. Finally, on Saturday, 11 July, the the Secretary-General to provide a report by differences within the group on the issue of Council adopted resolution 2533, renewing the end of August on the “direct and indi- sanctions and the role of cross-line deliveries: the Bab al-Hawa border crossing until 10 July rect impact of unilateral coercive measures six elected members voted in favour of the Rus- 2021. Twelve members voted in favour of the imposed on Syria on its socio-economic situ- sian and Chinese amendments noted above. resolution, while three members (China, the ation and humanitarian deliveries from out- Finally, the Council is operating in unchart- Dominican Republic and Russia) abstained. side Syria”; and to “continue to include in his ed territory vis-à-vis working methods. The The abstention by the Dominican Republic, reports the humanitarian impact of unilateral new cumbersome working methods do not which supports the cross-border mechanism, coercive measures”. allow a quick turnaround of drafts and votes came as a surprise to many. In its explanation Just before the final vote on 11 July, both and may have made compromise more dif- of vote, it noted that it had abstained because China and Russia put forward amendments, ficult. The Council often works under tight of the Council’s “failure to re-open the border that were put to a vote the same day: Chi- deadlines that can heighten stark political dif- crossing of Al Yarubiyah and [the] decision to na proposed that the draft text include lan- ferences, as is the case with Syria. With the close the Bab al-Salam crossing, [which would] guage from resolution 2532 on COVID-19 looming expiration of resolution 2504, virtual have terrible consequences to the lives of hun- of 1 July “recognizing efforts and measures negotiations and a 24-hour voting procedure dreds of thousands of children”. proposed by the Secretary-General concern- for both resolutions and amendments placed ing the response to the potential impact of even greater stress on the Council’s capacities. Key Points of Contention the COVID-19 pandemic to conflict-affect- Council members showed creativity and flex- During the negotiations, two main points of ed countries”, apparently an indirect refer- ibility in agreeing to alterations to its proce- contention emerged: as in past renewals, the ence to the Secretary-General’s March call dures when they had reviewed the drafts and mechanism itself (its duration and the num- to waive sanctions because of the impact of determined their positions. On the penholders’ ber of border crossings to be authorised) and COVID-19. Russia requested that the draft second draft resolution, for example, Germany the impact of sanctions. Russia has regular- text include language reflecting “improve- used its prerogative as Council president to ly argued against the ongoing need for the ments of cross-line deliveries of UN humani- reduce the time allotted to vote on amend- cross-border aid delivery mechanism, and in tarian assistance” as well as a second amend- ments to 12 hours, and on the second Russian its explanation of vote on 9 July noted that the ment requesting that the Secretary-General text was able to compress the voting timeline “mechanism was established in 2014 as an report on “the humanitarian impact of uni- to two hours. This helped expedite the circula- urgent and temporary exceptional measure…” lateral coercive measures” (that is, unilateral tion and consideration of the next draft resolu- and that its “position on the mechanism has sanctions). Though none of these amend- tion. The presidency also expedited the vote on always been clear—the gradual closure of the ments were adopted, they garnered stronger the Russian and Chinese amendments to the crossing points and phasing-out of the whole support than anticipated, with the Russian final draft resolution. Adjusting its rules of pro- mechanism based on the assessment of the amendment referencing cross-line deliveries cedure in the midst of a global pandemic, the situation in the country”. China, on the other and the Chinese amendments each receiving Council finally had an agreed text, announced hand, has often argued, as it did following the eight votes in favour, one short of being add- by the president at 1730 hours on Saturday, 11 vote on 10 January, that it “has always had ed to the resolution. This suggests that, while July. In the end, while resolution 2533 may not reservations regarding the establishment of a several Council members found the addition be what the majority of members wanted, it Syrian cross-border humanitarian assistance of language on sanctions inappropriate in a prevented a nearly complete dismantling of a mechanism” and that “cross-border human- resolution on humanitarian assistance, a sig- mechanism that has been responsible for pro- itarian assistance is a special relief method nificant number did. The issue of sanctions viding humanitarian aid to the Syrian people adopted under specific circumstances”. It on Syria is likely to continue to dominate for six years.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast August 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 3 Status Update since our July Forecast

UNRCCA (Central Asia) latest report on the region (S/2020/585). Nebenzia, whose delegation was responsible On 6 July, Special Representative and head Hindou Oumarou Ibrahim, the coordinator for drafting the introduction to this year’s of the UN Regional Centre for Preventive of the Association for Indigenous Women annual report, presented it to the Council. Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA) and Peoples of , spoke about the link Natalia Gherman briefed Council mem- between climate change and security, in par- Youth, Peace and Security bers in a closed VTC meeting on the activi- ticular in the Lake Chad Basin and the Sahel. On 14 July, the Security Council unani- ties of UNRCCA. She updated them on the On 28 July, the Council adopted a presiden- mously adopted resolution 2535 on youth, activities of the centre since her last briefing tial statement, proposed by Belgium and peace and security, which was co-authored in January, including on the impact of the Niger, following up on the 9 July meeting (S/ by the Dominican Republic and France (S/ COVID-19 pandemic on the region and on PRST/2020/7). The statement, among other PV.8748). The adoption followed the 27 April the work of UNRCCA. Her briefing appar- things, expressed concern about the poten- open debate on this issue, convened during ently touched upon UNRCCA’s work to pro- tial of the COVID-19 pandemic to exacer- the presidency of the Dominican Republic. mote regional cooperation projects, empower bate existing fragilities in West Africa and the This is the third resolution adopted by the women and youth in the region, and support Sahel, undermine development, worsen the Council on youth, peace and security, follow- the implementation of the UN anti-terrorism humanitarian situation and disproportionate- ing resolution 2250 of 9 December 2015 and strategy on a local level. ly affect women and girls, children, refugees, resolution 2419 of 6 June 2018. It requests internally displaced persons, older persons the Secretary-General to submit a biennial Peace and Security and Human Rights and persons with disabilities. report to the Security Council on the imple- On 7 July, the Council held via VTC an open mentation of resolutions 2250, 2419 and debate under the agenda item UN peace 2535. The resolution thus established a reg- operations on the topic “peacekeeping opera- On 13 July, the Security Council issued a ular reporting requirement on youth, peace tions and human rights” (S/2020/674). Ahead press statement welcoming developments and security for the first time. The resolution of the debate, Germany circulated a concept in South Sudan’s peace process, including also calls for more systematic reporting on note (S/2020/604). Annegret Kramp-Karren- the agreement between the parties to the the youth, peace and security agenda by the bauer, German Federal Minister of Defence, Revitalised Agreement on the allocation of Secretary-General in regular thematic and delivered Germany’s national-capacity state- states’ leadership positions and announce- geographic reports and includes provisions ment. The briefers were Michelle Bachelet, ment of governors (SC/14248). It also called aimed at the mainstreaming of the youth, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, on the Revitalised Transitional Government peace and security agenda into the work of David Shearer, Special Representative of the of National Unity to end delays in the imple- the UN secretariat. Secretary-General for South Sudan and head mentation of the Revitalised Agreement and of UNMISS, and Dismas Kitenge Senga of urged the parties to finalise security arrange- the Kisangani (DRC)-based civil society ments, establish transitional government On 14 July, the Security Council convened for organisation, Lotus. Twenty-nine member institutions and to make progress on tran- an open briefing followed by closed consulta- states not on the Council and the EU sub- sitional reforms. It expressed concern about tions on Colombia (S/PV.8749). The meeting mitted their statements in writing. On 28 July, increased violence between armed groups took place in the Economic and Social Council members of the Council held an informal vir- in South Sudan in recent months and called chamber, part of the morning of the first in- tual meeting with the President of the Human on the parties to work toward preventing person meetings since 12 March for Council Rights Council, Elisabeth Tichy-Fisslberger. such violence. The press statement briefly members. Special Representative and head addressed issues such as South Sudan’s of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia Libya efforts to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Carlos Ruiz Massieu briefed on recent devel- On 8 July, the Council held a high-level open the dire humanitarian situation and coop- opments and the Secretary-General’s latest VTC on Libya (S/2020/686). Secretary-Gen- eration between South Sudanese authorities 90-day report on the mission (S/2020/603). eral António Guterres briefed. On 28 July, and humanitarian agencies, and the role of The Council was also briefed by Clemencia the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee held IGAD, while calling on the South Sudanese Carabalí Rodallega, a representative of the an “informal informal” meeting via closed government to ensure UNMISS’ freedom Municipal Association of Women in the north VTC with Libya, regional member states, and of movement. of Cauca department. Both briefings were con- regional organisations to discuss the imple- ducted via VTC. On 16 July, Council members mentation of UN sanctions. Annual Report issued a press statement which expressed con- On 14 July, during its first physical meeting cern over the targeting and killing of former West Africa and the Sahel since 12 March, the Council considered and combatants, social leaders, and indigenous, On 9 July, Council members held an open adopted without a vote the draft report of Afro-Colombian and other community lead- VTC meeting (S/2020/706), followed by a the Security Council to the General Assem- ers, which have continued unabated despite closed VTC session, on West Africa and the bly covering 1 January to 31 December 2019 the COVID-19 pandemic (SC/14255). Coun- Sahel. Mohammed Ibn Chambas, head of (S/PV.8746). The Russian Federation’s Per- cil members recalled resolution 2532, which UNOWAS, presented the Secretary-General’s manent Representative, Ambassador Vasily endorsed the appeal of the Secretary-General

4 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast August 2020 Status Update since our July Forecast for a global ceasefire in response to COVID-19, violence (S/2020/727). The Special Represen- other groups: Belize (Alliance of Small Island and called on the parties in Colombia to halt tative of the Secretary-General on Sexual Vio- States); Denmark (the Nordic Group); Fiji violence and facilitate pandemic response. lence in Conflict, Pramila Patten, and Ange- (Pacific Small Island Developing States); and Council members further took note of the lina Jolie in her position as UNHCR Special (Group of Friends on Climate and request made by the parties and the Special Envoy, briefed. Two civil society representa- Security). A representative of the EU also Jurisdiction for Peace (SJP) for a role for the tives also briefed: Khin Ohmar, founder and spoke, as did and Ireland, which will Verification Mission in monitoring the imple- chair of Progressive Voice from Myanmar serve on the Council in 2021-2022. In addi- mentation of sanctions imposed by the SJP, as and Nadia Carine Therese Fornel-Poutou, tion to these statements, 29 other non-Secu- envisioned by the 2016 Final Peace Agreement. Executive President of the Association des rity Council member states submitted their Femmes Juristes de Centrafrique. In addi- interventions in writing. tion to Council members, 43 member states On 14 July, the Security Council issued and observers submitted statements, includ- Arria-Formula Meeting on a press statement condemning an attack ing Canada on behalf of 62 states and the EU. Participation of Women in the Afghan against a convoy of MINUSCA (SC/14253). Peace Process The attack, which occurred on 13 July and On 27 July, an Arria-formula meeting on was carried out by armed elements of the On 20 July, Council members were briefed “Women and the Afghan Peace Process: Return, Reclamation and Rehabilitation (3R) in consultations by Elizabeth Spehar, Spe- Ensuring Women’s Participation and Pro- in the north-west of the CAR, resulted in the cial Representative and head of UNFICYP, moting their Rights” was held via VTC. It death of a Rwandan peacekeeper. On 28 July, on recent developments and the latest Secre- was co-organised by , Germany, the Security Council unanimously adopted tary-General’s report. On 28 July, the Coun- Indonesia and the UK. The First Lady of resolution 2536, which extended the CAR cil unanimously adopted resolution 2537 Afghanistan was the keynote speaker, while sanctions regime until 31 July 2021, includ- which extended the mandate of UNFICYP concluding remarks were provided by Baron- ing an arms embargo with some exemptions. for another six months (S/PV.8751). ess Fiona Hodgson of Abinger, a member of Resolution 2536 also renewed the mandate the UK House of Lords and honorary mem- of the CAR Panel of Experts, who assist the The Situation in the Middle East, ber of the Group of Friends of Women in Sanctions Committee to oversee the sanction including the Palestinian Question Afghanistan. The panelists were Hasina Safi, measures, until 31 August 2021 (S/PV.8750). On 21 July, Council members held the quar- Afghanistan’s Minister of Women’s Affairs; terly open debate on “The Situation in the Dr Habiba Sarabi, member of the Afghan Democratic Middle East, including the Palestinian Ques- government negotiating team; Ghezal Haris, On 15 July, Belgium, South Africa, and the tion” in open VTC format (S/2020/736). head of the Afghanistan Ombudsperson’s US co-hosted an Arria-formula meeting The briefers were Special Coordinator for Office; Deborah Lyons, Secretary-General’s entitled: “the illegal exploitation of natural the Middle East Peace Process Nickolay Special Representative for Afghanistan and resources in the Great Lakes Region—How Mladenov; Daniel Levy, President of the head of UNAMA; and Sheikha Alya Ahmed to translate the ongoing positive regional US/Middle East Project; and Khalil Shikaki, bin Saif Al-Thani, Permanent Representative momentum into new options for conflict Professor of Political Science and Director of of Qatar to the UN. In addition to Council prevention, management and reform”. Along the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey members, interventions were also made by with Council members, participants includ- Research in Ramallah. representatives of Norway and , ed the DRC; Huang Xia, Special Envoy of which are expected—in addition to Germany, the Secretary-General for the Great Lakes Climate and Security Indonesia and Qatar—to host future rounds Region; Mauricio Villafuerte, Mission Chief On 24 July, Security Council members held of the intra-Afghan negotiations. All the for the DRC from the International Monetary a ministerial-level open debate on “climate speakers expressed their strong support for Fund; and member states from the region as and security” in open VTC format. A con- the meaningful participation of women in the well as others such as Canada, , cept note was circulated ahead of the meet- upcoming intra-Afghan negotiations between and Ireland. Council members spoke about ing (S/2020/725), which was chaired by Ger- the Afghan government and the Taliban. Par- the importance of having a comprehensive man Foreign Minister Heiko Maas. Briefers ticipants in the meeting also emphasised the approach with regional cooperation to tackle included Assistant Secretary-General for need to hear input from women across all of natural resource exploitation. Some also sug- Europe, Central Asia and the Americas Afghan society, including women residing in gested an increased role for the Peacebuilding Miroslav Jenča; Colonel Mahamadou Maga- rural areas, before and during the negotia- Commission. Russia said that any measures gi of Niger, Director of the Centre National tions process. They further stressed that any must respect the sovereignty of the DRC. d’Études Stratégiques et de Sécurité; and eventual peace agreement must safeguard Coral Pasisi of Niue, Director of the Sustain- women’s rights and preserve the gains made Women, Peace and Security able Pacific Consultancy. In addition to the in the past 20 years towards the empower- On 17 July, the Council held, via VTC, its 15 Council members, several member states ment of women and girls in Afghanistan. annual open debate on conflict-related sexual spoke at the meeting on behalf of regional or

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast August 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 5 Counter-Terrorism

Expected Council Action updated information about listed individu- adversely affected. Armed forces, for example, In August, the Security Council is expected als as soon as it is available. Regarding the are being redeployed to support public health to hold two meetings on counter-terrorism financing of ISIL’s operations in Iraq and efforts. Already limited, efforts by states to issues. Under-Secretary-General Vladimir Syria, the Monitoring Team reports that the repatriate children from the Al-Hol camp in Voronkov, the head of the UN Office of group uses donations, kidnap for ransom, Syria, which holds about 65,000 people dis- Counter-Terrorism (UNOCT), and Assis- extortion of businesses and individuals and placed from territories previously held by ISIL, tant Secretary-General Michèle Coninsx, the commercial activity. States consider ISIL to of which 94 percent are women and children, Executive Director of the Counter-Terrorism have financial reserves of about $100 million seem to have stalled, despite the high risk of a Committee Executive Directorate (CTED), in total. In Iraq, the group has managed to spread of COVID-19 in the camp. Reintegra- are expected to brief the Council on the Sec- exploit political instability as well as security tion programmes have also been put on hold, retary-General’s 11th strategic-level report gaps as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic increasing the risks for incarcerated individu- on the threat posed by the Islamic State in to relaunch an intensive rural insurgency and als to be exposed to the virus as infection rates Iraq and the Levant (ISIL or Da’esh). Then, was able to conduct sporadic attacks in large in prisons are disproportionally higher. The during a high-level open debate, Voronkov cities, including Baghdad. Libya remains an 26th report of the Monitoring Team concludes and the Executive Director of the UN Office essential link for ISIL operations across Afri- that there are no indications that ISIL is trying on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), Under- ca, which continue to threaten Libya’s own to systematically weaponise the virus but still Secretary-General Ghada Waly, are expect- security and stability as well as that of sur- found evidence that it is a potential threat and ed to brief the Council on a joint report by rounding states. should be followed. the UNOCT and UNODC on the linkages In June, CTED published a paper titled On 11 March, the Council held a debate between terrorism and organised crime. If “The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on titled “Countering terrorism and extrem- the measures implemented in response to terrorism, countering terrorism and counter- ism in Africa” under the agenda item “Peace the COVID-19 pandemic are still in place, ing violent extremism”. The paper noted that and security in Africa”, a signature event of the meetings are likely to be held as open terrorist groups are exploiting the pandemic to China’s Council presidency. Under-Secre- videoconferences. further their propaganda and narratives. One tary-General for Political and Peacebuilding example is the repurposing of anti-Semit- Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo; Assistant Secre- Key Recent Developments ic, Islamophobic, racist and anti-immigrant tary-General and Director of the UN Devel- The number of attacks perpetrated by ISIL tropes to increase hatred towards specific opment Programme Bureau for Policy and in its former strongholds in Iraq and Syria groups. Such narratives are often paired with Programme Support Abdoulaye Mar Dieye; have increased significantly in the first half existing or new conspiracy theories about and Ambassador Fatima Kyari Mohammed, of 2020 compared to the same period in the pandemic, mostly by extreme right-wing the AU Permanent Observer, briefed. The 2019, according to the 26th report of the groups. Failures by states, real or perceived, to EU, Japan and 15 African member states Analytical Support and Sanctions Moni- address the pandemic are being used to pro- made statements as well. A presidential state- toring Team (the Monitoring Team). No mote anti-state violence. On the other hand, ment was adopted during the meeting. attempts to travel by individuals listed under the paper pointed out that measures to com- On 9 July 2019, the Council held an open the 1267/1989/2253 ISIL (Da’esh) and Al- bat the pandemic have led to a decrease in debate on the linkages between international Qaida sanctions regime were reported and operational opportunities for terrorist groups terrorism and organised crime. Briefers were no exemptions to the travel ban were request- because of travel restrictions, increased vigi- Under-Secretary-General Yuri Fedotov, then- ed by member states. A continuing problem lance on state borders, and less crowded Executive Director of UNODC; Coninsx; and states encounter are false positive hits while spaces. As states prioritise resources for the Tamara Makarenko, an international con- screening individuals for travel, showing the fight against COVID-19, counter-terrorism sultant for the UN Interregional Crime and need to improve the sanctions list. The Moni- operations and measures directed at the pre- Research Institute. Resolution 2428 on the toring Team therefore urged states to provide vention of violent extremism have begun to be issue was adopted on 19 July and required the

UN DOCUMENTS ON COUNTER-TERRORISM Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2532 (1 July 2020) supported the Secretary-General’s appeal for a global ceasefire to tackle the COVID-19 pandemic. S/RES/2482 (19 July 2019) was on the linkages between international terrorism and organised crime. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2020/5 (11 March 2020) was on countering terrorism and extremism in Africa. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2020/754 (28 July 2020) was a joint report by UNOCT and UNODC on the linkages between terrorism and organized crime as requested by resolution 2482.. Sanctions Committee Document S/2020/717 (16 July 2020) was a letter from the chair of the 1267/1989/2253 ISIL (Da’esh) and Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee, transmitting the 26th report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team. Security Council Letters S/2020/493 (3 June 2020) was from the chairs of the 1373 Counter-Terrorism Committee and the 1267/1989/2253 ISIL (Da’esh) and Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee, transmitting a joint report by CTED and the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team “on actions taken by Member States to disrupt terrorist financing”, as requested by resolution 2462 on combatting the financing of terrorism. S/2020/243 (27 March 2020) was from the chair of the 1373 Counter-Terrorism Committee, containing its programme of work for 2020. S/2020/220 (20 March 2020) was from the chairs of 1373 Counter-Terrorism Committee and the 1267/1989/2253 ISIL (Da’esh) and Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee, announcing that a “joint special meeting” on combatting the financing of terrorism as mandated per resolution 2462 would be postponed “on an exceptional basis in the light of the ongoing challenges posed by COVID-19 ... in order to reduce unnecessary exposure to health risks”. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8743 (11 March 2020) was a debate titled “Countering terrorism and extremism in Africa” under the agenda item “Peace and security in Africa” and the adoption of presidential statement S/PRST/2020/5. Security Council Press Statements SC/14262 (27 July 2020) was on the 22 July killing of five humanitarian aid workers in .SC/14239 (1 July 2020) was on a 29 June terrorist attack in Karachi, Pakistan, resulting in several deaths. SC/14216 (16 June 2020) was on terrorist attacks in north-east Nigeria, resulting in at least 120 people killed and others injured. The attacks took place in Felo on 9 and 10 June, in Nganzai on 13 June, and on a UN humanitarian facility on 13 June in Monguno. SC/14185 (13 May 2020) was on two terrorist attacks that took place in Afghanistan on 12 May: one on a Médecins Sans Frontières clinic in Kabul and one on a funeral in Nangarhar Province, the latter claimed by the Islamic State Khorasan Province, an affiliate of ISIL.SC/14155 (1 April 2020) was on two terrorist attacks in Chad and Nigeria on 23 March: in Boma (Chad), at least 98 people were killed and 47 people were wounded, and in an attack on military vehicles near Gonery in Yobe State (Nigeria), at least 47 people were killed. SC/14147 (26 March 2020) was on a terrorist attack claimed by the Islamic State Khorasan Province, an affiliate of ISIL. The 25 March attack was conducted in Kabul, Afghanistan, on the Dharamshala Sikh Temple, resulting in at least 25 dead and many wounded.

6 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast August 2020 Counter-Terrorism

Secretary-General to submit within 12 months most often used to prosecute female returnees. against terrorism. During the negotiations a joint report by the UNOCT and UNODC In some convictions, there is no consideration of in March on the presidential statement on on linkages between terrorism and organised whether or not the woman’s “association” was by countering terrorism and extremism in Afri- choice or coercion. The CTED brief also looks at crime, whether transnational or domestic. This sentencing of women in contrast to that of men, ca, some members felt that the initial draft report—along with a concept note by Indone- concluding that there is a two-way gender bias: lacked adequate representation of the fourth sia, the Council president in August, expected in some cases women were not taken seriously pillar. While negotiating resolution 2532 on to be circulated ahead of the open debate–will as perpetrators and received lesser sentences, COVID-19, penholders France and Tunisia constitute the basis for the open debate. in other cases they received much harsher sen- had to address concerns by Russia and the tences as their role in terrorism was perceived as a transgression of gender roles. US that a Council endorsement of the Sec- Women, Peace and Security retary-General’s global ceasefire call should Resolution 2396, addressing foreign terrorist include an exemption for counter-terrorism fighters, emphasised that women “associated Council Dynamics operations. The resolution consequently with foreign terrorist fighters returning or relocat- ing to and from conflict may have served in many In general, counter-terrorism enjoys the sup- specified that a ceasefire and humanitarian different roles, including as supporters, facilitators, port of all Council members. Some differ- pause do not apply to military operations or perpetrators of terrorist acts”. According to a ences exist regarding the four pillars of the against ISIL, Al-Qaida and Al-Nusra Front, July CTED analytical brief on “The prosecution UN Global Counter-Terrorism Strategy. and other terrorist groups that have been des- of ISIL-associated women”, not all states imple- The pillars are, first, addressing the condi- ignated by the Council. ment that understanding and many do not inves- tigate female returnees, considering them only tions conducive to the spread of terrorism; The US is the penholder on counter-ter- as victims. Resolution 2396 argues that gender- secondly, measures to prevent and combat rorism. Ambassador Kais Kabtani (Tunisia) sensitive prosecution, rehabilitation and reinte- terrorism; thirdly, measures to build states’ chairs the 1373 Counter-Terrorism Com- gration strategies are required. Evidence collec- capacity to prevent and combat terrorism and mittee. Ambassador Dian Triansyah Djani tion against women faces even more hurdles as to strengthen the role of the UN system in (Indonesia) chairs both the 1267/1989/2253 the online documentation of the involvement of women in violent acts is less pronounced, due to that regard; and fourthly, measures to ensure Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL or ISIL’s ideas about gender roles. “Membership in respect for human rights for all and the rule Da’esh) and Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee a terrorist organisation” is the criminal offence of law as the fundamental basis for the fight and the 1540 Non-Proliferation Committee.

Iraq

Expected Council Action Key Recent Developments the military battleground for competing Iran- In August, the Security Council is expected Following the start of a “Strategic Dialogue” US interests. to receive a briefing by the Special Represen- on 11 June, Iraq and the US issued a joint On 3 January, Qassem Soleimani, the tative and head of the UN Assistance Mission statement, saying that “the U.S. would con- head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ for Iraq (UNAMI), Jeanine Hennis-Plass- tinue reducing forces from Iraq”. No timeline Quds Force, was killed by a US strike near chaert, on the most recent developments in was provided. The US currently has about the Baghdad airport, as was Abu Mahdi al- Iraq and on the two latest Secretary-Gener- 5,000 troops stationed in the country. The Muhandis, the Deputy of the Iraqi Popular al’s reports, on UNAMI and on the issue of US-led Global Coalition against Da’esh (the Mobilisation Forces (PMF). On 5 January, missing Kuwaiti and third-country nation- Coalition) has about 2,500 troops in Iraq. the Iraqi parliament adopted a resolution als and missing Kuwaiti property, including Attacks continue to be directed against the calling on the government to work towards the national archives. Both reports are due US military and diplomatic presence and the ending the presence of foreign troops in Iraq in August. If the measures implemented in Coalition. According to media reports, about (the resolution has not been implemented). response to the COVID-19 pandemic are still 36 such assaults have taken place since the In a 6 January letter to the Council presi- in place, the briefing and the subsequent con- end of October 2019. In the joint statement, dent, Iraq condemned the attack as violating sultations are likely to be held as open and Iraq “committed to protecting the military “the sovereignty of Iraq and the principles of closed videoconferences, respectively. personnel” of the Coalition as well as “the international law”. In a 9 January letter to The mandate of the UN Investigative Iraqi facilities hosting them”. No group has the Council president, the US argued that it Team to Promote Accountability for Crimes claimed responsibility for the attacks. The US, had acted in self-defence. On 8 January, Iran Committed by Da’esh/ISIL (UNITAD) however, blames Iran-backed militias oper- retaliated by striking a base in Iraq, injuring expires on 21 September, and UNAMI’s ating in Iraq and has attacked their bases in approximately 100 US troops, according to mandate expires on 31 May 2021. retaliation, showing that Iraq continues to be media reports. In her 29 June annual report

UN DOCUMENTS ON IRAQ Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2522 (29 May 2020) extended the mandate of UNAMI until 31 May 2021. S/RES/2490 (20 September 2019) extended the mandate of UNITAD until 21 September 2020. Security Council Letters S/2020/547 (17 June 2020) was from the president of the Security Council containing the briefing given by Karim Asad Ahmad Khan, the Special Adviser and head of UNITAD, on 15 June. S/2020/467 (29 May 2020) was from the president of the Security Council containing the draft UNAMI renewal resolution in blue, the votes submitted by all Council members, and an explanation of vote by Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. S/2020/460 (29 May 2020) was from the presi- dent of the Security Council containing the results of the vote on resolution 2522.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast August 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 7 Iraq to the Human Rights Council, the UN’s Spe- widespread popular protests demanding cial Rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary or basic services and systemic change. Accord- Human Rights-Related Developments arbitrary executions, Agnès Callamard, con- ing to UNAMI statistics, 490 people have In a 10 July press briefing note, the spokesperson for the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, cluded that “the targeting of General Solei- died and 7,783 have been injured since the Liz Throssell, expressed deep concern at the mani, and the deaths of those accompanying demonstrations started in October 2019. On murder of the prominent security analyst Hisham him, constitute an arbitrary killing”. Refer- 9 April, Salih named Al-Kadhimi, then chief al-Hushami on 6 July. Al Hushami had been out- ring to international human rights law, Cal- of intelligence, as prime minister-designate. spoken against both ISIL and Shia militias in Iraq. lamard said that “the US is responsible” for He seems to be acceptable to Iran and the US. Throssell emphasised that OHCHR welcomes the pledge of the prime minister to “hold Al Hushami’s this internationally wrongful act. She also Al-Khadimi will hold the position only until murderers to account”. Referring to a series of dismissed the US’ claim of self-defence as elections are held, presumably sometime next popular protests that started in October 2019 and no evidence was provided by the US of “an year. So far, no prime minister-designate has have continued with varying intensity, the press ongoing or imminent attack”. During his received support from the protesters. Al- briefing note said that UNAMI and the UN Human first official visit abroad, Iraqi Prime -Min Kadhimi has declared that he will maintain Rights Office “verified the targeted killings of 23 people linked to the demonstrations…. These vic- ister Mustafa al-Kadhimi met with the Ira- the muhasasa (apportionment system), a tims included political and human rights activists, nian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khame- political system based on quotas for ethno- people who were vocal on social media in support nei who reiterated that Iran continued to be sectarian groups. The abolition of that system of the demonstrators, and local community organ- determined to fully retaliate against the US has been one of the protesters’ core demands. isers”. Throssell underscored that OHCHR calls for the killing of Soleimani. The Iraqi parliament approved the new gov- on the newly formed Iraqi government to “ensure One of the Iran-backed militias that the ernment led by Al-Kadhimi on 6 May, with accountability—through thorough, independent and transparent investigations and prosecution”. US has accused of perpetrating attacks seven out of 22 cabinet positions still out- against its personnel in Iraq is Kata’ib Hez- standing. On 6 June, the parliament approved bollah, which the US has designated a ter- all outstanding positions. Key Issues and Options rorist organisation. Kata’ib Hezbollah is part continues to conduct military Council members are closely following the of the PMF, established in 2014 from differ- operations against positions of the Kurdistan political and security situation in Iraq. After ent, mostly Iran-backed Shia Muslim fight- Workers’ Party (PKK) in Kurdistan, northern closed consultations, Council members could ers to combat the Islamic State in Iraq and Iraq. Turkey, the EU and the US, among oth- issue a press statement addressing issues of the Levant (ISIL or Da’esh). Last July, then- ers, classify the PKK as a terrorist organisa- concern to them. Prime Minister Adil Abd Al-Mahdi issued an tion. On 4 July, the Turkish Defence Ministry executive order bringing the PMF under the claimed to have killed three PKK members in Council and Wider Dynamics exclusive control of the Iraqi state and order- an operation. In an 8 July letter to the Coun- Council members are generally unanimous in ing it to cut all links with political entities. He cil, the Turkish ambassador to the UN said their support for UNAMI and positive devel- warned that armed groups operating outside that Turkey was “obliged to take appropriate opments in Iraqi-Kuwaiti relations. the control of the Iraqi state were illegal and measures” in self-defence “in the absence of Regional dynamics continue to affect Iraq, subject to prosecution. This order has yet to Iraq’s ability to deal with the presence of ter- as evidenced by the continued attacks on US be implemented, and current Prime Minis- rorists in its own territory”. and Coalition bases and US counterattacks ter Al-Kadhimi announced his intention to On 15 June, the Council received a brief- on Iraqi soil. The government routinely says take actions in that regard. The Iraqi gov- ing in an open and closed videoconference that Iraq has no intention of taking sides and ernment carried out a raid on 25 June on a from Karim Asad Ahmad Khan, the Special becoming a theatre for Iran-US tensions. Tur- Kata’ib Hezbollah base, and 14 members of Adviser and head of UNITAD. key continues to have troops stationed in Iraq the group were arrested. Following pressure COVID-19 case numbers in Iraq con- despite Iraq’s objections. by the PMF, all but one were released. tinue to rise sharply. As of 31 July, Iraq had The US is the penholder on Iraq issues Iraq’s political situation continues to 121,263 confirmed cases of COVID-19. in general, and the UK is the penholder on depend on support from both Iran and the At the time of writing, the UN’s 2020 Iraqi-Kuwaiti issues and UNITAD. Ambas- US. On 31 October 2019, Iraqi president humanitarian response plan for Iraq of sador Sven Jürgenson (Estonia) is the chair of Barham Salih announced that Prime Min- $748.1 million was funded at 31.9 percent, the 1518 Iraq Sanctions Committee. ister Al-Mahdi intended to resign, following with $450.7 million outstanding.

8 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast August 2020 Syria

Expected Council Action on 17 June under the Caesar Syria Civilian needs in the north-west requires a renewal In August, the Security Council expects to Protection Act, infighting between the Syr- of the cross-border authorisation for the Bab hold its monthly meetings on political issues, ian government and Rami Makhlouf (Presi- al-Salam and Bab al-Hawa border crossings the humanitarian situation, and the use of dent Bashar al-Assad’s cousin and the head for an additional 12 months”—was expected chemical weapons in Syria. of Syriatel, a major telecommunications firm to brief the Council on 29 July and was likely that provides a vital source of revenue to the to offer an assessment of what impact the clo- Key Recent Developments government), and the spill-over effects of the sure of Bab al-Salam is having on OCHA’s On 30 June, the EU organised a donor meet- economic crisis in neighbouring Lebanon. work. (For more on this issue, please see “In ing—the Brussels IV Conference—for Syria. Though north-western Syria continues Hindsight” in this month’s Forecast.) Speaking at the conference, UN Secretary- to remain largely calm since a ceasefire was On 14 July, the Security Council met in its General António Guterres reminded donor announced on 5 March, recent developments regular, monthly closed format to discuss the countries that “nine out of 10 people [in Syria] have contributed to a worsened security situ- use of chemical weapons in Syria. The meet- are now living in poverty” and that “the eco- ation. On 14 July, a roadside explosive device ing was scheduled to discuss the regular report nomic impact of the COVID-19 pandem- was detonated on a joint Russian-Turkish by the Director-General of the Organisation ic has led to a doubling of food prices”. He patrol in the southern Idlib de-escalation area, for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons urged countries to “step up [their] financial, reportedly injuring several Russian soldiers. (OPCW) on progress in the elimination of the humanitarian and political commitments to This followed at least two other attacks on Syrian chemical weapons programme. Appar- the Syrian people”. The conference—which joint patrols along the M4 highway security ently, however, the closed session focused on was held as a videoconference (VTC) due to corridor in June and early July. On 19 July, the 9 July decision by the OPCW’s Execu- special measures put in place in response to the a car bomb was detonated near the north- tive Council condemning the use of chemical pandemic—resulted in pledges of $7.7 billion west border crossing of Bab al-Salameh on weapons as reported by the OPCW Investi- for Syria, consisting of $5.5 billion to support the Turkish border, killing seven civilians gation and Identification Team (IIT), which humanitarian and development activities for and wounding over 60 people, while anoth- concluded that “there are reasonable grounds the remainder of 2020 and $2.2 billion in 2021. er explosion in the town of Afrin reportedly to believe that Syria used chemical weapons Syria’s economic, security and humani- injured 13 people. in Ltamenah, Syria in March 2017”. The tarian situations all appear to have suffered Syria’s humanitarian situation remains Executive Council decision also requested setbacks in recent weeks. Syria’s already- very fragile, particularly in the north-west. On that Syria declare to the OPCW where the precarious economic situation continues to 9 July, the first case of COVID-19 was con- chemical weapons used in the attacks were deteriorate, and the security situation in the firmed in the region. The infected person is “developed, produced, stockpiled, and opera- country’s north-west worsened in July, while reportedly a doctor based in Gaziantep, Turkey, tionally stored for delivery” and declare “all of the closure of the Bab al-Salam border cross- who travels regularly to Syria and works at the the chemical weapons it currently possesses”. ing to UN cross-border humanitarian assis- Bab al-Hawa Hospital. An additional 28 cases The Executive Council will take further steps tance and the announcement of the first con- have subsequently been identified. According to decide “appropriate actions” under the firmed cases of COVID-19 in the north-west to OCHA, all four patients are health profes- Chemical Weapons Convention if Syria fails to have made the humanitarian situation in and sionals, and steps to mitigate the spread of the meet these obligations within a 90-day period. around Idlib more tenuous. virus have resulted in restrictions of move- Finally, Special Envoy Geir O. Pedersen Over the last several months, the Syrian ments as well as suspension of routine clinical briefed the Council on 23 July, updating pound has suffered a major collapse, and the work in area hospitals. These first COVID-19 the Council on the situation of the Consti- cost of essential goods continues to increase. cases in the north-west come in the context of tutional Committee, which is scheduled to According to OCHA, the Syrian pound has the Security Council’s adoption of resolution meet in person in Geneva in late August. He lost nearly half of its value since the start of 2533 on 11 July on the delivery of cross-border also addressed the security situation in the May. This has led to a steep rise in the price humanitarian aid to Syria, following six days of country’s north-east and north-west as well of food, medicine and other goods. Accord- negotiations and four failed resolutions. Res- as the situation of detainees in the country. ing to data from the World Food Programme, olution 2533 re-authorised the Bab al-Hawa The Council was also briefed by Wafa Musta- some 9.3 million Syrians are considered food crossing for 12 months but did not re-autho- fa, a representative of Families for Freedom, a insecure. While the Syrian economy has been rise the crossing at Bab al-Salam, thus further Syrian civil society organisation comprised of severely weakened by nine years of conflict, limiting the UN’s delivery capacity. families and relatives of those who have suf- its recent decline is due in large part to the Under-Secretary-General for Humanitar- fered enforced disappearance and arbitrary combined effects of several factors. These ian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordina- detention during the Syrian conflict, who also include concern over EU sanctions and tor Mark Lowcock—who said on 19 May focussed on the situation of detainees in Syria. new unilateral US sanctions that took effect that “meeting the enormous humanitarian

UN DOCUMENTS ON SYRIA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2533 (11 July 2020) renewed the authorisation for cross-border humanitarian aid into Syria through one border cross- ing (Bab al-Hawa) for 12 months. S/RES/2504 (10 January 2020) renewed the authorisation for cross-border humanitarian aid into Syria through two border crossings (Bab al-Salam and Bab al-Hawa) for six months. Secretary-General’s Report S/2020/401 (14 May 2020) was on the review of the UN’s cross-line and cross-border operations. Security Council Letters S/2020/702 (11 July 2020) was from the president of the Security Council addressed to the Secretary-General and the permanent representatives of Council member states on the outcome of voting on resolution 2533. S/2020/551 (16 June 2020) was from the president of the Security Council addressed to the Secretary-General and the permanent representatives of Council member states containing the record of the 16 June open VTC meeting on Syria’s political situation.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast August 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 9 Syria

Human Rights-Related Developments emphasised that women’s organisations in Syria to discuss the decision further and explore During a virtual press conference on 7 July, the and Syrian women continue to be at the core in all what actions the OPCW Executive Council chair of the Commission of Inquiry on Syria, aspects of crisis response, including health care, can take if Syria fails to comply with the 9 Paulo Sérgio Pinheiro, presented the report on peacemaking, education and humanitarian efforts. the special inquiry in the Idlib region. The report, Consequently, they called upon donors meeting July decision. which the Human Rights Council (HRC) request- at the Brussels IV Conference on Syria to put the ed in resolution 43/28, covered the period from rights and needs of women and girls at the centre Council Dynamics November 2019 to June 2020 and reported 52 of its discussions. The Council remains divided on Syria, and “emblematic attacks by all parties which led to civil- the re-authorisation of cross-border aid ian casualties or damage to civilian infrastructure”. Among these attacks were 17 that affected hospi- Key Issues and Options mechanisms starkly illustrated differences on tals and medical facilities, 14 attacks on schools, With the adoption of resolution 2533 on 11 the humanitarian file. Resolution 2533 was nine attacks on markets, and 12 attacks affecting July, the contentious debate over cross-border adopted with 12 votes in favour and three homes. Calling the report a “chronicle of deaths delivery of humanitarian assistance has been abstentions (China, the Dominican Repub- foretold”, Pinheiro underscored that the Commis- set aside for the time being. As the impact lic and Russia). The Dominican Republic, sion consistently called Idlib a “ticking time bomb”. Hanny Megally, one of the three members of the of the decision on the delivery of humanitar- in its explanation of vote, noted that it had Commission, emphasised that since “pandem- ian assistance in Syria’s north-west becomes abstained owing to the Council’s “failure to re- ics know no borders, neither should life-saving clearer and the COVID-19 situation evolves, open the border crossing of Al- Yarubiyah and aid”, with civilians needing “sustained and unfet- Council members may wish to consider other [the] decision to close the Bab al Salam cross- tered access to humanitarian assistance which options. These could include consideration ing, [which would] have terrible consequences must neither be politicised by Member States nor of re-authorising Bab al-Salam or, in the to the lives of hundreds of thousands of chil- instrumentalized by parties to the conflict”. The report (A/HRC/44/61) was presented to the HRC event of an outbreak of COVID-19 in Syr- dren”. The negotiations leading up the adop- during the last week of its 44th session. ia’s north-east or a lack of further improve- tion exposed deep rifts within the Council not ments in cross-line delivery, reinstating the Al only on the importance of the cross-border Yarubiyah border crossing between Syria and delivery mechanism but also on such issues Women, Peace and Security Iraq. Given the very difficult negotiations that as the impact of sanctions and the weight and In a 2 July op-ed essay titled “Put women at the surrounded the adoption of resolution 2533, confidence that the Council places on cross- centre of Syria crisis response”, published on the these options may, however, be implausible. line assistance. China and Russia maintained Egyptian news website Al-Ahram, UN Women Executive Director Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka Another key issue for the Council is prog- throughout the negotiations that coordina- and Executive Director of the UN Population ress on the political file. With the Special tion with Syria on this mechanism could be Fund Natalia Kanem argued that the funding for Envoy’s 16 June announcement that the Con- strengthened and argued that the humanitar- programmes addressing gender-based violence, stitutional Committee is to meet in person in ian situation has been adversely impacted by economic empowerment and women’s leader- Geneva in August, the Council may seek ways unilateral sanctions. The US and European ship as well as sexual and reproductive health services has to match the increase in needs on to offer support to this body. members of the Council have reiterated their the ground. They said that Syrian women are Finally, the OPCW Executive Council’s 9 position that US and EU sanctions exempt more likely than men to be affected by poverty, July decision condemning the use of chemical humanitarian goods and expressed distrust be victims of gender-based violence and be weapons as reported by the OPCW IIT may of the Syrian government’s intentions in han- responsible for the care of children and their again bring the work of the IIT to the fore at dling cross-line humanitarian assistance. other family members. This likelihood increases with the spread of COVID-19. Despite these chal- the Council. The Council may wish to invite Belgium and Germany are the penholders lenges and risks, Mlambo-Ngcuka and Kanem the OPCW Executive Director to the Council on humanitarian issues in Syria.

Guinea-Bissau

Expected Council Action (UNIOGBIS). Special Representative and may also brief. Because special measures In August, the Council will hold a briefing head of UNIOGBIS Rosine Sori-Coulibaly necessitated by the COVID-19 pandemic followed by consultations on the UN Inte- is expected to brief. A representative from the are still likely to be in effect, the meetings grated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) are expected to be held under the open and

UN DOCUMENTS ON GUINEA-BISSAU Security Council Resolution S/RES/2512 (28 February 2020) renewed the mandate of UNIOGBIS until 31 December 2020. Security Council Presidential Statements S/PRST/2020/2 (11 February 2020) addressed West Africa broadly and urged all national stakeholders in Guinea-Bissau “to ensure a peaceful implementation of the election results”. S/PRST/2019/13 (4 November 2019) expressed support for the communiqués of ECOWAS and the AU following the dismissal of the government of Prime Minister Aristides Gomes on 28 October. Secretary-General’s Report S/2020/755 (28 July 2020) was the most recent report of the Secretary-General on developments in Guinea-Bissau and the activities of UNIOGBIS. Security Council Letter S/2020/144 (24 February 2020) was from the Chair of the PBC Guinea-Bissau configuration. Security Council Press Statements SC/14240 (1 July 2020) expressed concern, among other things, at recent incidents, calling on Guinea-Bissau’s defence and security forces not to interfere in the political process in Guinea-Bissau. SC/14138 (5 March 2020) called on the parties in Guinea-Bissau “to respect the legal and constitutional frameworks and the democratic process to resolve the post- electoral crisis”. SC/13989 (16 October 2019) reiterated the imperative need for the presidential election to be held on 24 November 2019. USEFUL ADDITIONAL RESOURCE Mark Shaw and A. Gomes, Breaking the Vicious Cycle: Cocaine in Guinea-Bissau, Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, Geneva, May 2020.

10 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast August 2020 Guinea-Bissau closed videoconference (VTC) format. vote, with Simões Pereira garnering 46.45 further “called on ECOWAS to urgently send The mandate of UNIOGBIS expires on percent. While observers deemed the elec- a high-level political mission to Guinea-Bis- 31 December. tions peaceful, PAIGC challenged the results sau” to help resolve the crisis. on 3 January in the Supreme Court of Justice Meanwhile, ECOWAS had been planning Key Recent Developments (SCJ) over the tabulation methods used by a joint mission to Guinea-Bissau with the AU The most recent Security Council decision on the National Election Commission (CNE). and the UN that was scheduled to arrive on Guinea-Bissau, resolution 2512 of 28 Febru- The SCJ ordered a re-count, and follow- 18 March. Neither that mission nor the high- ary, reconfirmed an earlier plan, expressed in ing a stand-off of several weeks, the CNE level mission called for by the Council took resolution 2458, to terminate UNIOGBIS at repeated the tabulation and re-confirmed Sis- place because Guinea-Bissau’s borders were the end of 2020. soco Embaló as the winner on 25 February. closed due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In a Guinea-Bissau has experienced frequent PAIGC filed a new challenge with the SCJ 22 April communiqué, ECOWAS announced political instability—including four coups on 26 February. that following its in-depth analysis of the d’état and more than a dozen attempted Not waiting for the court’s decision, Sisso- situation in Guinea-Bissau, its Heads of coups, with the military playing a particular- co Embaló held a swearing-in ceremony in a State and Government had decided to rec- ly strong role in the country’s political life— hotel in Bissau on 27 February and declared ognise Sissoco Embaló as the winner of the since it gained independence from himself President of the Republic. Former 2019 presidential election and asked him to in 1974. In the period since the 2012 coup, president Vaz and Nabiam presided over the appoint a prime minister in conformity with Guinea-Bissau has gone through multiple ceremony, which most foreign diplomats and constitutional norms and form a government political crises, but without interventions by representatives of international bodies did by 22 May. The four other members of the the military. In 2019, political tensions flared not attend. Among the public figures who Group of Five, the AU, EU, CPLP and the again. Guinea-Bissau was supposed to hold a did attend the ceremony was Antonio Indjai, UN, issued a statement that same day, taking presidential election before the five-year term a retired general who is listed by the 2048 note of the ECOWAS decision. of President José Mário Vaz ended on 23 June Guinea-Bissau Sanctions Committee for hav- In the next several weeks, Sissoco Embaló 2019. This would have led to Guinea-Bissau’s ing led the 2012 coup. held consultations in Bissau with representa- first peaceful transfer of power from one In a 28 February decree, Sissoco Embaló tives of the Group of Five as well as with lead- democratically elected president to another. dismissed the government of Prime Minister ers of different political parties. His efforts to When Vaz repeatedly delayed setting the date Gomes, and unilaterally appointed Nabiam form a government by 22 May were unsuc- for the presidential election, serious concerns as the new prime minister. In support of Sis- cessful. Under the country’s Constitution, were raised by international actors, especially soco Embaló, the military promptly took over the party with the highest number of votes those most engaged with Guinea-Bissau and all state institutions, the SCJ and the national in parliament nominates the prime minister, referred to as the Group of Five, composed broadcast media. At the beginning of March, and the country’s president then endorses the of the UN, AU, EU, the Community of Por- Guinea-Bissau had two competing govern- appointment. Following the 2019 legislative tuguese Language Countries (CPLP) and the ments: the government led by Prime Minister elections, PAIGC, which won 47 seats, and Economic Community of West African States Gomes endorsed by the National Assembly, together with its allies held a majority in the (ECOWAS), with the latter playing a particu- and another led by the de facto authori- 102-member National Assembly, would not larly active role. ties, supported by the military, with Sissoco recognise Nabiam, who had been appointed The election was held on 24 Novem- Embaló at the helm and with Nabiam as his by Sissoco Embaló’s 28 February decree. ber, contested by 12 candidates. The leader prime minister. AAccording to UN sources, several mem- of PAIGC, Domingos Simões Pereira, won In the days that followed, the de facto bers of the National Assembly were subjected 40.13 percent of the vote. Placing second with authorities replaced key government officials to intimidation, and one was kidnapped in 27.65 percent was Umaro Sissoco Embaló as well as engaging in harassment and intimi- May (and later released). Sissoco Embaló of the Movement for Democratic Change dation of several public figures. Prime Minis- also threatened to dissolve the parliament. (MADEM-G15), a party formed by PAIGC ter Gomes went into hiding, and several min- Eventually, some alliances shifted within the dissidents in 2018. Vaz ran as an independent isters as well as PAIGC presidential candidate different parliamentary groups, and on 29 and received only 12 percent of the vote. As Simões Pereira left the country because of June the assembly approved the Nabiam-led no candidate won a majority, a run-off elec- concerns for their personal safety. Several government programme. In a 1 July press tion between Simões Pereira and Sissoco SCJ judges received threats. statement, members of the Security Coun- Embaló was set for 29 December 2019. On The Security Council discussed Guinea- cil expressed concern at recent incidents 4 December 2019, third-place finisher Nuno Bissau in consultations under “any other and called on Guinea-Bissau’s defence and Gomes Nabiam, leader of the United Peo- business” on 5 March and received a brief- security forces not to interfere in the politi- ple’s Assembly-Democratic Party of Guinea- ing from Sori-Coulibaly. In a press statement cal process in Guinea-Bissau. They also Bissau, signed a political pact with Sissoco that same day, Council members called on “reminded all stakeholders that they may con- Embaló to support the latter’s candidacy. the parties “to respect the legal and consti- sider taking appropriate measures in response In the 29 December 2019 election, Sis- tutional frameworks and the democratic pro- to further developments in the situation in soco Embaló received 53.55 percent of the cess to resolve the post-electoral crisis”. They Guinea-Bissau”.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast August 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 11 Guinea-Bissau

Against the backdrop of the political Sori-Coulibaly briefed the configuration’s mem- return to the barracks”. Until earlier this year, upheavals, there were also new developments bers on developments and concerns related to the military had stayed out of political life concerning drug trafficking, a perennial prob- UNIOGBIS’ expected termination at the end of the since the 2012 coup. In light of the late Feb- year in the context of political developments in lem in Guinea-Bissau that emerged following the country and the COVID-19 pandemic. Ambas- ruary/early March military intervention and the country’s 1998-1999 civil war (political sador Abdou Abarry (Niger) spoke on behalf of seizure of state institutions, including the SCJ, instability and frequent coups combined with ECOWAS, which Niger is chairing in 2020. an option for the Council is to reconsider its its coastal geography made the country a use- earlier plans related to the sanctions regime. ful transit point between Latin America and Europe for the cocaine trade). In September Key Issues and Options Council and Wider Dynamics 2019, the country’s law enforcement made Assessing whether conditions on the ground The Council has tended to follow ECOW- its largest cocaine seizure, and in April, 12 and transition planning for a follow-on UN AS’ lead on Guinea-Bissau, seeking to sup- suspects were sentenced in connection with presence are suited to closing the mission by port its decisions, often prompted by the the case. But Braima Seidi Bá, a politically the end of 2020 is the key issue. When the West African Council member. This pattern connected businessman also accused in this Council adopted resolution 2512 deciding to has largely held in 2020, with the additional case, was tried in absentia because of the close UNIOGBIS on 31 December, the situ- factor of having Niger both as the Security COVID-19 lockdown and did not report to ation in the country was in flux. Since tran- Council penholder on Guinea-Bissau and its prison after his 16-year sentence was handed sition planning requires close consultation president, Mahamadou Issoufou, serving as down. There have also been concerns that with national authorities and both the post- ECOWAS chairman this year. drug cartels may be poised to exploit the electoral crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic Members appear to agree on the goal of current political instability and increase their significantly delayed the start of the new gov- ending UNIOGBIS, though some have raised activities. Since early March, there have been ernment’s functioning, some consideration serious concerns about increased political reports of arrivals of suspected drug traf- may be given to a possible extension of the instability and cases of violence and intimi- fickers in the country. The new government transitional period. An option for the Council dation against those actors perceived to be a has replaced key law enforcement officials could be to request the Secretary-General to threat to the current authorities. During the responsible for fighting drug trafficking -dur provide an update later this year on progress last mandate negotiations, some members ing the recent period when several major drug in handing over UNIOGBIS’ tasks to the UN stressed the importance of assessing the situ- seizures occurred. Office for West Africa and the Sahel, the UN ation on the ground before UNIOGBIS exits. country team, and other entities. The update Some current and incoming Council Sanctions-Related Developments could also identify capacity or financial gaps members—including Germany, Ireland, The 2048 Guinea-Bissau Sanctions Committee that may exist following UNIOGBIS’ closure. Kenya, Niger (on behalf of ECOWAS) and expects to meet in August to discuss the Sec- Transnational criminal activities, par- the UK—spoke during the June meeting retary-General’s sixth report on “The progress made regarding the stabilization of Guinea-Bis- ticularly drug trafficking, remain a key of the PBC’s Guinea-Bissau configuration. sau and the restoration of constitutional order”, issue, and there are concerns that terrorist While acknowledging certain positive devel- which will provide recommendations on the Guin- groups in the region could also potentially opments, some raised serious concerns about ea-Bissau sanctions regime. Resolution 2512, in exploit Guinea-Bissau’s political instabil- the renewed involvement of the military in which the Council requested the report, said that ity. An option for the Council is to request the country’s political life, with interference the recommendations should address—though not be limited to—issues such as continuation, information on how the role of UNODC in by the defence and security forces in political adjustment or suspension of the sanctions and Guinea-Bissau could be enhanced in light of processes and intimidation of the opposition, prospective delistings. UNIOGBIS’ upcoming closure. judges and journalists. Some were also con- When the Council imposed sanctions cerned about the reports of increased activity Developments in the Peacebuilding on Guinea-Bissau in the wake of the 2012 on the drug scene. Commission (PBC) coup, a key demand was for the military to Niger is the penholder on Guinea-Bissau. The PBC’s country configuration held a VTC take “immediate steps to restore and respect Ambassador Kais Kabtani (Tunisia) is the meeting on 23 June, with its chair Ambassador Ronaldo Costa Filho () providing an update. constitutional order, including a democratic chair of the 2048 Guinea-Bissau Sanctions electoral process, by ensuring that all soldiers Committee.

12 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast August 2020 Lebanon

Expected Council Action postpone necessary reforms will only delay to de-escalate the situation. The report said In August, the Council is expected to renew the country’s economic recovery. that in some instances “Israel Defense Forces the mandate of the UN Interim Force in Leb- In the meantime, Lebanese citizens con- (IDF) weapons were also pointed at UNIFIL anon (UNIFIL) before its 31 August expiry. tinued to bear the brunt of the country’s dire and Observer Group Lebanon” and that this Prior to this, Council members will convene financial straits, which have been exacerbated issue had been brought up during a 14 May for a closed videoconference (VTC) meeting by the halt in economic activity caused by meeting of the tripartite mechanism consist- to hear a briefing on the latest Secretary-Gen- the COVID-19 pandemic. Between Octo- ing of UNIFIL and the two countries. eral’s report on the implementation of reso- ber 2019 and July, the Lebanese pound lost On 27 July, tensions rose along the Israeli lution 1701, issued on 14 July. The expected more than 80 percent of its value against the Lebanese border, as the IDF announced that briefers are Ján Kubiš, Special Coordinator US dollar. The prices of many basic staples it had foiled an infiltration attempt by Hez- for Lebanon, and Under-Secretary-Gener- have doubled since the beginning of the year, bollah in the Shaba Farms/Mount Dov area. al for Peacekeeping Operations Jean-Pierre and sharp devaluation of citizens’ wages left According to the IDF, it had opened fire at a Lacroix. many unable to buy food. The UN World group of up to five Hezbollah operatives who Food Programme (WFP) warned that a mil- crossed the Blue Line into Israeli territory Key Recent Developments lion Lebanese will be unable to afford food in in a bid to carry out an attack. No casualties The situation in Lebanon remains unstable 2020. For the first time since 2006, the WFP were reported on either side of the border, as the country continues to suffer from a is planning to begin distributing food assis- and Hezbollah had denied that its members debilitating economic crisis that is fuelling tance to Lebanese citizens, with the organisa- attempted to infiltrate Israel. Media sources popular unrest and giving rise to concerns of tion expecting to reach approximately 50,000 suggest that the reported attempted attack widespread food insecurity. The financial cri- families in need. was a retaliation for the killing of a Hez- sis—the worst in Lebanon’s recent history-- is On 17 July, the UN launched an updat- bollah fighter on 20 July during an alleged characterised by a deep recession, a sharp rise ed COVID-19 Lebanon Emergency Appeal, Israeli airstrike in Syria. The occurrence in unemployment, and escalating inflation. which seeks $482 million to assist those prompted accusatory rhetoric from leaders On 30 April, the government of Prime affected by the combined impact of the pan- in Israel and Lebanon. UNIFIL urged the Minister Hassan Diab approved a five-year demic and the socioeconomic crisis. parties to exercise maximum restraint and financial recovery plan aimed at alleviating Popular protests by citizens calling for bet- launched an investigation to determine the the country’s economic condition. It maps ter living conditions and government reform, facts of the incident. out losses in the country’s financial system which led to the resignation of Prime Min- On 1 June, the Secretary-General issued a and calls for restructuring the country’s debt ister Saad Hariri’s government in October report containing an assessment of the contin- load through negotiations with Lebanon’s 2019, subsided between mid-March and ued relevance of UNIFIL’s resources, taking creditors, curbing expenditures, and imple- late April because of the lockdown measures into consideration the troop ceiling and the menting structural and sectoral reforms. The imposed to stem the COVID-19 pandemic. civilian component of the force, in accordance plan had faced criticism from opposition Large-scale anti-government protests, some with resolution 2485 of 29 August 2019. The parliamentarians, the governor of the Cen- of which turned violent, resumed across assessment determined that UNIFIL plays tral Bank, and the Association of Banks in the country in late April as citizens sought a key role in maintaining calm along the Lebanon, who claim that it overestimates the to express their growing discontent over the Blue Line, including through its liaison and extent of the losses in the financial system. lack of basic goods and services. During a 6 coordination mechanisms, which help pre- Disagreements among Lebanese politi- June protest, violence erupted between sup- vent misunderstandings between the sides. It cal elites about the financial recovery plan porters and opponents of Hezbollah as sev- noted that UNIFIL’s configuration is based complicated the government’s negotiations eral groups called for the disarmament of all on a saturation model, as the force currently with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) militias in line with resolution 1559; 25 sol- has the highest concentration of troops and aimed at securing a $10 billion loan, as the diers and 48 civilians were injured. equipment among all UN peacekeeping mis- plan served as a platform for the govern- The Secretary-General’s 14 July report on sions. According to the assessment, the high ment’s engagement in the talks. After sev- the implementation of resolution 1701 said density of troops in a relatively small area of eral rounds of negotiations beginning in that despite several incidents between Isra- operations and the high frequency of daily early May, the Lebanese Finance Minister el and Lebanon that had increased tensions, operational activities conducted by UNIFIL announced on 3 July the suspension of talks the situation in UNIFIL’s area of operation serve as a deterrent to a resumption of hostili- with the IMF pending internal agreement remained mostly calm during the report- ties. The assessment appears to conclude that on the scale of losses in the financial system. ing period. The report noted an increase in no changes in the troop ceiling are necessary IMF officials have since stressed the need for instances in which the sides pointed weap- as it observes that “UNIFIL, with its robust the Lebanese authorities to unite around the ons at each other across the Blue Line, a posture, remains necessary to prevent a secu- government plan while expressing concern border demarcation between Israel and rity vacuum until conditions on the ground that an attempt to present lower losses and Lebanon, requiring UNIFIL’s involvement change” towards a permanent ceasefire.

UN DOCUMENTS ON LEBANON Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2485 (29 August 2019) renewed UNIFIL’s mandate until 31 August 2020. S/RES/1701 (11 August 2006) calledfor a cessation of hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2020/710 (14 July 2020) was on the implementation of resolution 1701. S/2020/473 (1 June 2020) was an assessment of the continued relevance of UNIFIL’s resources.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast August 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 13 Lebanon

The assessment also outlines challenges mandate. A key priority for the Council is to However, there is a divergence of views on to the implementation of UNIFIL’s mandate, protect the integrity of UNIFIL’s mandate the security dynamic in the region and the including the limited ability of the Lebanese and to provide the force with the means nec- role of UNIFIL. Over the past several years, Armed Forces to fully deploy in the south of essary to carry out its tasks. Council members these differences have been especially evi- Lebanon or maintain a maritime presence, may choose to endorse the recommendations dent during negotiations on UNIFIL’s man- the continued violations of Lebanese aero- contained in the Secretary-General’s assess- date renewals. space by Israel, and restrictions on the move- ment and request the secretariat to initiate The US has argued that the mission’s role ment of UNIFIL personnel that have barred deliberations with the parties and troop-con- should be reconsidered, given that UNIFIL the force from investigating sites of viola- tributing countries on the matter. is unable to fulfil the entirety of its mandate tions of resolution 1701. The report makes An ongoing concern for the Council is because it lacks access to parts of its area of several concrete recommendations to address the economic and political turmoil engulfing operations. The US most recently reiterated these challenges, including the deployment Lebanon, which has the potential to under- this position in the Council’s 4 May closed of smaller combat vehicles to allow UNIFIL mine the already fragile security situation in VTC meeting on the implementation of reso- to access sites without disturbing the local the country. The Council also remains con- lution 1701, saying that steps should be taken population and the consolidation of sever- cerned about the lack of progress in imple- to either empower UNIFIL or to realign its al UN positions concurrent with the use of menting the main objectives of resolution “staffing and resources with tasks it can actu- advanced technologies, such as unmanned 1701, including a permanent ceasefire and ally accomplish”. aerial vehicles to enhance monitoring along disarmament of all armed groups in Leba- The US entered the latest mandate renew- the Blue Line. non. As the Council has not issued a press al negotiations advocating a significant reduc- statement on Lebanon since February 2019, tion of the troop ceiling and a comprehensive Human Rights-Related Developments it may consider a statement calling on the strategic review of the mission. The request In a 10 July statement, Michelle Bachelet, the UN government of Lebanon to implement the for an assessment of the continued relevance High Commissioner for Human Rights, registered reforms necessary to avert a humanitarian of UNIFIL’s resources served as a compro- serious concerns about Lebanon’s economic cri- sis. “The situation is fast spiralling out of control, crisis in the country. Such a product may mise, as most Council members opposed with many already destitute and facing starvation recall resolution 2532 of 1 July, which called these proposals. On 17 June, Council mem- as a direct result of the crisis,” she said, calling on on parties to conflicts around the world to bers held an informal closed VTC discussion Lebanon’s political parties and leaders to enact adopt a ceasefire to help combat the spread on the assessment with Under-Secretary- needed reforms and prioritise the provision of of COVID-19 and urge Israel and Lebanon General for Peacekeeping Operations Jean- essential needs such as food, electricity, health care, and education. According to the statement, to fulfil their obligations under resolutions Pierre Lacroix. It appears that most Council 1.7 million refugees and 250,000 migrant workers 1701 and 1559. members appreciated the report’s recommen- are among the most vulnerable. dations, but the US may have felt the assess- Council Dynamics ment fell short in addressing the challenges Key Issues and Options There is a strong consensus among Coun- to the implementation of UNIFIL’s mandate. The main issue for Council members in cil members in their support for Lebanon’s France is the penholder on Lebanon. August will be the renewal of UNIFIL’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and security.

Pandemics, Peacebuilding and Sustaining Peace

Expected Council Action Director of New York University’s Center support the Secretary-General’s 23 March In August, the Council is expected to hold on International Cooperation. global ceasefire appeal to combat COVID-19 an high-level open debate on “Peacebuilding in conflict-affected countries. A key sticking and sustaining peace: challenges caused by Key Recent Developments point was US opposition to mentioning the pandemics”. Possible briefers are Secretary- The World Health Organization (WHO) WHO, which the administration of President General António Guterres, former Secretary- declared COVID-19 a global pandemic on Donald Trump has criticised, in addition to General Ban Ki-moon, representing The 11 March. Tensions between China and the its criticism of China, during the crisis. China, Elders, the NGO of public figures found- US led to protracted negotiations over the conversely, wanted a reference to the UN spe- ed by Nelson Mandela, and Sarah Cliffe, course of three months on a resolution to cialised agency, which has been mentioned in

UN DOCUMENTS ON COVID-19 AND HEALTH CRISES Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2532 (1 July 2020) demanded a general and immediate cessation of hostilities in all situations on the Council’s agenda and called upon all parties to armed conflicts to engage immediately in a 90-day humanitarian pause. S/RES/2439 (30 October 2018) expressed serious concern that the security situation was severely hampering response efforts to the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and facilitating the spread of the virus and called for the immediate cessation of hostilities by all armed groups. S/RES/2177 (18 September 2014) determined that the unprecedented extent of the Ebola outbreak in Africa constituted a threat to international peace and security. Security Council Letter S/2020/571 (22 June 2020) was the concept note for the 2 July open debate on pandemics and security. General Assembly Document A/RES/74/270 (2 April 2020) reaffirmed the General Assembly’s “commitment to international cooperation and multilateralism and its strong support for the central role of the UN system in the global response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic”.

14 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast August 2020 Pandemics, Peacebuilding and Sustaining Peace previous Council resolutions on health crises. an issue that the PBC has discussed regularly open debate is further meant to contribute to In late June, a compromise was finally reached since April. Louise Blais, chargé d’affaires of the ongoing 2020 review of UN peacebuild- by adding language saying that the Council Canada, which chairs the PBC, and Oscar ing, mandated by the April 2016 Council and had “considered” the General Assembly’s 2 Fernandez-Taranco, the Assistant Secretary- General Assembly resolutions on the previous April resolution on “Global solidarity to fight General for Peacebuilding Support, briefed. review of the UN’s peacebuilding architec- the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)”; ture—the PBC, the Peacebuilding Fund and that resolution acknowledged the crucial role Developments in the Peacebuilding the Peacebuilding Support Office. played by the WHO and called for the appli- Commission cation of the agency’s relevant guidelines. The PBC first discussed the COVID-19 pandemic Council Dynamics in an 8 April meeting on the disease’s multi-fac- On 1 July, the Council was thus able to eted impacts in conflict-affected countries. In a Health crises are a non-traditional security adopt resolution 2532, demanding a cessa- press release about the meeting, PBC members threat, but after initial concerns raised by tion of hostilities in all situations on its agen- noted that the pandemic may undermine social China and South Africa in March about the da and calling for all conflict parties to engage cohesion, strain the capacity of governance link between the pandemic and peace and in a humanitarian pause for at least 90 days. institutions, increase risks of instability, and have security, members have not questioned the potential consequences for food security. The An exemption is included for the continua- statement further expressed concern that the cri- Council’s discussing the pandemic. During tion of military operations against the Islamic sis may adversely affect employment, livelihoods, the 2 July open debate, a number of members State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL or Da’esh), and incomes and potentially exacerbate underly- highlighted concerns about how the pandem- Al-Qaida, Al-Nusra Front and other terrorist ing tensions, as well as compounding already dire ic could exacerbate frequent conflict driv- groups designated by the Security Council. humanitarian situations in affected countries. ers such as economic conditions and social The PBC has since held meetings on the The resolution said that the “unprecedented pandemic’s effects on West Africa and the Sahel, tensions. At the same time, some members, extent of the COVID-19 pandemic is likely on Central Africa and on the immediate socio- such as Russia and South Africa, underlined to endanger the maintenance of internation- economic responses to COVID-19. The crisis has that Council discussions about the pandem- al peace and security”. On peacebuilding, it also featured prominently in the PBC’s country- ic should focus on situations on its agenda, recognised that peacebuilding and develop- specific meetings and other thematic discussions. and expressed concerns about the Council’s ment gains made by countries in transition involving itself in, for example, economic and post-conflict countries could be reversed Key Issues and Options aspects, which are the responsibility of other as a result of the pandemic. As resolution 2532 recognised, the COV- UN organs and entities. The next day, Council members held a ID-19 pandemic is likely to endanger interna- The drawn-out negotiations on resolu- high-level open debate on the peace and secu- tional peace and security. Immediate impacts tion 2532 stemmed from US-China ten- rity implications of pandemics and interna- have been felt through the disruptions caused sions, fuelled by US criticism of and rhetoric tional health crises, hearing briefings from to UN peacekeeping operations and by the about China regarding the pandemic amid Guterres, ICRC President Peter Maurer, and threat it poses to already vulnerable refu- the major US outbreak. France and Tunisia AU Commissioner for Social Affairs Amira gee and displaced populations and existing served as co-penholders on the resolution Elfadil Mohammed. Guterres recalled the humanitarian crises. But, as the Secretary- and were heavily invested in overcoming this diverse threats posed by COVID-19 to inter- General observed, the pandemic threatens to impasse so the Council could back the Sec- national peace and security that he had out- stress typical root causes and underlying fra- retary-General’s ceasefire appeal. lined in the Council’s previous meeting on the gilities that can lead to conflict, which are the Elected members in general have actively pandemic in April. These included rising ten- focus of peacebuilding interventions. sought to have the Council address the pan- sions from the severe socio-economic fallout of Thus, key issues for the open debate will demic. Most recently, Germany organised the the pandemic and around upcoming elections, be to consider these immediate and longer- high-level debate in July, and as the coordina- erosion of trust in public institutions, and the term challenges created by COVID-19 and tor of PBC-Council relations, it also organised aggravation of pre-existing grievances, to all its impact on conflict-affected and post-con- the informal interactive dialogue, supported of which conflict-affected and post-conflict flict countries, similar to the discussion dur- by Indonesia, Niger, and the UK. Indone- countries are most vulnerable. Other threats ing the 22 July informal interactive dialogue. sia, which will serve as the Council’s August include obstacles for maintaining peace pro- The debate will look to explore ideas for more president and has proposed the open debate, cesses, exploitation of the crisis by terrorist effective support for these countries in light of was also part of the initial group of countries groups, heightened risks of bio-terrorism, and the pandemic. These include the role of peace behind the first General Assembly resolu- new challenges for peace operations. operations, capacity-building, regional organ- tion on the pandemic, adopted on 2 April. In As a follow-up to resolution 2532, Coun- isations and south-south cooperation as well addition, Indonesia has a track record of a cil members held an informal interactive as how to enhance cooperation between the strong interest in peacebuilding. It has served dialogue in a closed videoconference (VTC) Council and the PBC. Other issues include four terms in the PBC, most recently from format on 22 July with representatives of the the impact on financing for peacebuilding as a 2017-2018, when it was a PBC focal point Peacebuilding Commission (PBC) to con- result of the global economic slowdown due to on financing for peacebuilding in 2017, and sider the multidimensional challenges posed the pandemic, and the impact of COVID-19 in 2017, it organised the first high-level PBC by COVID-19 in conflict-affected countries, on women in conflict-affected countries. The meeting on south-south cooperation.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast August 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 15 Yemen

Expected Council Action concern that after four months “[t]here is a The Council held a special session via In August, the Council is expected to hold real risk that these negotiations will slip away, VTC on the FSO Safer on 15 July. Execu- its monthly briefing, via videoconference and that Yemen will enter a new phase of pro- tive Director of the UN Environment Pro- (VTC), with Special Envoy for Yemen Mar- longed escalation.” gramme Inger Andersen said a spill of the tin Griffiths, a representative from OCHA, Saudi Arabia has overseen negotiations tanker’s 1.1 million barrels of oil would be and General Abhijit Guha, who heads the between the government and the separatist four times greater than the Exxon Valdez spill UN Mission to support the Hodeidah Agree- Southern Transitional Council (STC) follow- in Alaska in 1989, which released 275,000 ment (UNMHA). The mandate of UNMHA, ing the STC’s seizure in June of Socotra gov- barrels, and that destruction to ecosystems renewed on 14 July, expires on 15 July 2021. ernorate and a 22 June ceasefire announce- would last decades and affect the livelihoods The 2140 Yemen Sanctions Committee is ment between the sides. On 29 July, an of up to 28 million people in the region. Low- expected to consider the mid-term update of agreement was reached in these talks. The cock updated members on negotiations with its Panel of Experts in August. The mandate STC abandoned its 25 April declaration of the Houthis to allow for a UN-led techni- of the Panel of Experts expires on 28 March self-rule and recommitted to implement- cal mission to carry out an assessment of 2021. ing the November 2019 Riyadh Agreement the ship and make initial repairs. The week that had ended an earlier round of fighting before, the Houthis informed the UN in Key Recent Developments in the south. In accordance with the Riyadh writing that they would grant access to the Fighting continues between the Houthi rebel Agreement, the sides should form a govern- UN-led team, though they have made similar group and the Yemeni government, backed ment within 30 days, with an equal number commitments before. Andersen and Lowcock by the Saudi Arabia-led coalition, as Griffiths of ministers from northern and southern described other threats: an explosion and fire works to broker a ceasefire agreement. Mean- Yemen, including representatives of the STC. on the ship would expose millions of people while, Yemen’s humanitarian situation has The plan also calls for the withdrawal of rival to harmful levels of pollutants, contaminate continued to deteriorate, exacerbated by the forces from Aden and the contested gover- water wells and subject millions of Yemeni COVID-19 pandemic and worsening eco- norate of Abyan, and the appointment of a farmers to crop loss. Furthermore, the criti- nomic conditions. new governor and security director for Aden cal port of Hodeidah could be closed for up Drone and missile attacks by the Houthis during the 30-day period. to six months, doubling food prices in Yemen, against Saudi Arabia, and coalition air- Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation in and international shipping through the Red strikes, continued during July after escalating Yemen is deteriorating further. “We have nev- Sea would potentially be crippled, among since the expiration of a unilateral coalition er before seen in Yemen a situation where a other potential consequences. ceasefire in late May. On 12 July, the coali- severe domestic economic crisis overlaps with At the Council’s 28 July briefing on Yemen, tion announced that it had intercepted and a sharp drop in remittances and major cuts Lowcock reported no progress in resolving destroyed two ballistic missiles and six bomb- to donor support for humanitarian aid—all the situation with the tanker. During the laden unmanned aerial vehicles launched by amidst a devastating pandemic”, according to session, members heard briefings from two the Houthis, who claimed responsibility for Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Yemeni civil society representatives based in attacks against an oil facility and military Affairs Mark Lowcock’s statement during a Sana’a. Wafa`a Alsaidy, General Coordinator bases in Jizan, Najran and Assir in southern 24 June closed VTC with Council members. for Yemen of Médecins du Monde, focused Saudi Arabia. That same day, an airstrike in A 30 June OCHA report described the aid on Yemen’s decimated health system, under Hajjah governorate killed seven children and operation as being “on the brink of collapse”, further strain by the COVID-19 pandemic. two women, according to the UN humani- having received only $558 million in 2020 Alsaidy called on Council members to recon- tarian office in Yemen. On 15 July, at least 11 so far, compared to $2.6 billion at the same sider and end weapons salesthat fuel the war, civilians, including six children and two wom- time last year. During July, OCHA increased pressure countries involved in the war to sta- en, were killed by airstrikes in al-Jawf gover- its warnings about the renewed risk of famine. bilize the economy, ensure safe and unim- norate. “We deplore yesterday’s air strikes in There are increasing worries, too, about peded humanitarian access, and maintain aid al-Jawf (….) A thorough & transparent inves- the environmental, humanitarian and eco- funding. Raja Abdullah Ahmed Almasabi of tigation is required,” Griffiths tweeted. nomic consequences that could result from a the Arab Human Rights Foundation talked Griffiths continues to lead negotiations leak or accident on the FSO Safer oil tanker about the war’s impact on persons with dis- between the government and the Houthis on moored in the Red Sea off Hodeidah gov- abilities, urging UN agencies, internation- a joint declaration of a nationwide ceasefire, ernorate, which has not had maintenance al NGOs and governments to give greater on a series of economic and humanitarian during the five-year-long war. The situation attention to disabled persons’ needs and measures, and on the resumption of peace gained new urgency when the ship’s engine rights. Guha briefed in consultations.Coun- talks. On 28 July—at a rare physical meeting room flooded in late May; emergency repairs cil press elements after the meeting called of the Council since the COVID-19 pandem- by Yemeni divers from the SAFER corpora- on the parties to agree rapidly to Griffiths’ ic struck New York City—Griffiths expressed tion prevented the tanker from sinking. proposals and for the Houthis to issue entry

UN DOCUMENTS ON YEMEN Security Council Resolution S/RES/2534 (14 July 2020) extended the mandate of UNMHA until 15 July 2021. Security Council Letter S/2020/648 (3 July 2020) was from the Yemeni government, requesting a Council special session on the FSO Safer. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8753 (28 July 2020) was a briefing on Yemen. Security Council Press Statement SC/14233 (29 June 2020) expressed deep concern at the slow pace of negotiations, calling on the parties to agree rapidly to mediated proposals.

16 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast August 2020 Yemen permits to the UN technical team to assess a decline in remittances, and a new fuel short- that he could pursue a mediated solution the Safer tanker. age—threaten to worsen the humanitarian within the parameters of resolution 2216, crisis, already acute because of the pandemic, which was adopted in April 2015 at the out- Key Issues and Options the intensified fighting of recent months, and set of the Saudi-led coalition’s intervention. Achieving a nationwide ceasefire and restart- the funding shortage for relief efforts. Resolv- ing a political process remains a critical issue, ing the situation of the FSO Safer remains a Council Dynamics though frustration is building at the lack of critical and urgent issue. Council members appear aligned in their sup- results in the current negotiation process. If agreement is reached on the joint dec- port of the Special Envoy, desiring a ceasefire Since fighting intensified between the govern- laration for a ceasefire, the Council may and resumption of a political process. They ment and Houthis in January, Council mem- adopt a resolution to welcome or endorse further share concerns about the humanitar- bers have called for a cessation of hostilities the deal. Another option, as put forward by ian crisis, the COVID-19 outbreak in Yemen, in multiple press statements, and Griffiths’ the International Crisis Group in light of the and the FSO Safer. Tunisia is the Arab mem- efforts gained greater urgency in March in impasse in negotiations, is a new Council ber on the Council that traditionally cham- light of COVID-19 and the Secretary-Gen- resolution demanding an immediate cease- pions positions of the Saudi-led coalition. eral’s global ceasefire appeal to combat the fire in Yemen and calling for more inclusive The US, which is seeking to maintain restric- pandemic. More recently, the Council adopt- peace talks to involve other Yemeni parties tions on Iranian arms transfers that are set to ed resolution 2532 on 1 July demanding a that are necessary to implement any future expire later this year, often points to what it cessation of hostilities in all situations on its agreements. Likely to be key to Council perceives as Iran’s destabilising role in Yemen. agenda, in support of the Secretary-General’s members pursuing a new resolution is a The UK is the penholder on Yemen. global ceasefire appeal. signal from Griffiths that his efforts could Ambassador I. Rhonda King (Saint Vincent Regarding the humanitarian situation, benefit from such a resolution. He has yet to and the Grenadines) chairs the 2140 Yemen Yemen’s deteriorating economic conditions— provide such an indication since determin- Sanctions Committee. the near-depletion of Central Bank reserves, ing shortly after his appointment in 2018

Somalia

Expected Council Action pandemic. Member states agreed that the determine how UNSOM can best provide In August, the Council is expected to renew best way forward, under the circumstances, strategic support and advice to facilitate the the mandate of the UN Assistance Mission would be a technical rollover of UNSOM’s electoral process and adjust the mission’s in Somalia (UNSOM), which expires on 31 mandate, which in Council practice entails mandate as appropriate, at a time when the August. Earlier in the month, the Council is the adoption of a largely unchanged mandate Somalia government was further along in its due to receive a briefing from Special Repre- for a short period. Through a written proce- planning for the elections. sentative and head of UNSOM James Swan dure agreed to by Council members on 27 After several weeks of delays, the chair of and hold consultations on Somalia. March, UNSOM’s mandate was renewed on the National Independent Electoral Commis- The authorisation for the AU Mission in 30 March until 30 June by the adoption of sion (NIEC), Halima Ismail, announced in a Somalia (AMISOM) expires on 28 Febru- resolution 2516. meeting with the Federal Parliament on 27 ary 2021. On 22 June, with the COVID-19 spe- June that upcoming elections should be post- cial measures still in place, Council mem- poned because of logistical, financial, and Key Recent Developments bers once again renewed the mandate of COVID-19 challenges. At the heart of the The Council is set to renew UNSOM’s UNSOM through a technical rollover, until issue is the oft-repeated promise by Somali mandate after two technical rollovers on 30 31 August. Resolution 2527 passed unani- high-level officials that elections would be March and 22 June. While initial negotia- mously through the written procedure agreed one person, one vote. Previously, Somalia tions began among the permanent members in March. It seems the Council wished to had used a clan-based system of indirect vot- in March, it became clear by mid-month consider UNSOM’s mandate after know- ing. In this model, lawmakers are voted in by that the Council’s ability to conduct fur- ing more about the Federal Government clan elders, and then those lawmakers elect a ther negotiations would be limited by mea- of Somalia’s plans for upcoming elections. president from a group of selected contend- sures taken in response to the COVID-19 The expectation was that the Council would ers. It was thought that elections in 2020 or

UN DOCUMENTS ON SOMALIA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2527 (22 June 2020) was a technical rollover of UNSOM’s mandate until 31 August 2020. S/RES/2520 (29 May 2020) renewed the authorisation of AMISOM until 28 February 2021. S/RES/2516 (30 March 2020) was a technical rollover of UNSOM’s mandate until 30 June 2020. Secretary- General’s Report S/2020/398 (13 May 2020) was the latest report on the activities of UNSOM. Security Council Letters S/2020/573 (23 June 2020) contained the record of the adoption of resolution 2527. S/2020/529 (11 June 2020) was a copy of the 9 June briefing provided by Ambassador Marc Pecsteen de Buytswerve (Belgium) in his capacity as Chair of the 751 Somalia Sanctions Committee. S/2020/466 (29 May 2020) contained both the draft resolution and letters received in reply from Council members indicating their national positions on the adoption of resolution 2520. S/2020/266 (31 March 2020) from the president of the Security Council, containing both the draft resolution and letters received in reply from Council members indicating their national positions on the draft resolution that became resolution 2516.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast August 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 17 Somalia

2021 could instead be based on universal suf- short term. On 16 July, the speaker of the Key Issues and Options frage and mark a significant step forward for Lower House of Parliament announced his Conversations about Somalia, and by exten- Somalis. In her statement on 27 June, Ismail oppostition to the clan-based model, further sion the future of the UN’s role in Somalia, said that one person-one vote elections would throwing into question the road ahead for are dominated by the possibility of Somalia’s take at least until March 2021 to organise Somalia’s elections. first one person-one vote elections. Council and possibly longer if using biometric reg- A series of meetings between federal members want to consider how UNSOM istration. (Before the announcement, parlia- states’ presidents and the Federal Govern- can best continue to provide strategic sup- mentary elections were tentatively scheduled ment of Somalia to discuss elections and port and advice to the Federal Government for 27 November, and the president’s term other agenda items took place during the of Somalia and AMISOM during this critical ends on 8 February 2021). week of 20 July. This marks the first meeting and potentially unstable period. The suggestion that elections could be between Farmajo and the presidents of the In his latest report, the Secretary-Gen- delayed has set off a political dispute inside federal member states in over a year. On 22 eral expressed concern that the relationship Somalia. Some members of parliament and July it was announced that the stakeholders between the Federal Government of Somalia the NIEC continue to support universal had agreed to nominate a technical working and some of its states remains poor. Coun- suffrage and therefore have supported the group that would design a plan to hold “time- cil members may echo this concern in their NIEC’s recommendation to delay elections. ly” elections. Somalia’s leaders are expected statements and could include calls for better However, Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire to reconvene on 15 August. cooperation in future resolutions, presidential said on 9 July that there could be no delay in Somalia continues to face a number of or press statements. holding elections. This signalled a possible rift long-standing threats and challenges, along with his former close ally President Mohamed with newer ones. These include COVID-19, Council Dynamics Abdullahi Mohamed “Farmajo”, who has with over 3,100 cases in Somalia as of 28 July; Council members are generally united in repeatedly called for universal suffrage. Just the worst locust outbreak in over 25 years; their belief that the upcoming elections are a few weeks later, on 25 July, Khaire was heavy floods that have displaced around important for Somalia. Many Council mem- removed from his position through a no-con- 500,000 people; and Al-Shabaab, the Somali ber states have repeatedly stressed the need fidence vote in Somalia’s parliament. Accord- terrorist group aligned with al-Qaeda, which for one person-one vote elections. This puts ing to the speaker of parliament, Khaire was continues to orchestrate attacks. On 13 July them at odds with some of the current state- removed due to the government’s inability to Al-Shabaab attempted to assassinate General ments coming out of Somalia. In the August “fulfill its national promises, including holding Odowaa Yusuf Rageh, the head of the Somalia meeting, these divisions are likely to become one man-one vote elections, and establishing National Army, in a suicide car bomb attack stark: Council dynamics could be shaped by a national security force capable of tightening in . Rageh survived, but one civil- this tension between the desire to push for the security”. Khaire’s removal was criticised ian was killed and several others wounded. stronger development of democratic practic- by both the EU and the . It is es and respect for traditions and practicality, now up to Farmajo to appoint a new prime Sanctions-Related Developments with Somali political stakeholders themselves minister or establish a unity government until On 9 June, Ambassador Marc Pecsteen de remaining divided on these issues. Buytswerve (Belgium), chair of the 751 Somalia elections are held. Council members often emphasise that Sanctions Committee, briefed Council members Additionally, the recommendation to post- in an open videoconference on the committee’s they view Somalia as being at a historical pone elections was rejected by the presidents activities from 28 February to 9 June. He high- turning point, both politically and in its of Somalia’s federal states (Said Abdullahi lighted Al-Shabaab’s increased use of improvised reform and strengthening of the security Deni of , Ahmed Mohamed Mado- explosive devices in Somalia and their devastat- sector. Members consistently stress the need ing effect. be of , Ahmed Abdi Karie Qoorqoor for better relationships between the Federal of , Abdiaziz Laftagareen of South Government of Somalia and Somali federal West and Mohamed Abdi Ware of Hirsha- Human Rights Developments states, something that remains challenging belle). They released a joint statement on 12 During the 43rd session, the President of the and has periodic flare-ups. Member states Human Rights Council (HRC) appointed Isha July calling for modified indirect elections are likely to voice the need for reconciliation Dyfan as the Independent Expert on the Situation that could be held sooner than the sought- of . The HRC renewed in their statements. after universal suffrage elections. With this the mandate of the independent expert for a year The UK is the penholder on Somalia. statement, the leaders made it clear that they in resolution 42/33. Ambassador Marc Pecsteen de Buytswerve oppose any delay in elections and are willing (Belgium) is Chair of the 751 Somalia Sanc- to sacrifice universal suffrage, at least in the tions Committee.

18 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast August 2020 DPRK (North Korea)

Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Expected Council Action for the cooperation between the two Kore- DPRK for a year. The resolution commended In August, the chair of the 1718 Democratic as and said that the US was ready to engage the Special Rapporteur for his work, particularly People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) Sanc- with the DPRK on denuclearisation issues. In given “his continued efforts in the conduct of his tions Committee, Ambassador Christoph various remarks to the media, US President mandate despite the lack of access to the coun- Heusgen (Germany), is expected to brief Donald Trump has indicated that he would try”. Resolution 43/25 also urges the government of DPRK to “promote, respect and protect the Council members on the 90-day report of the be open to meeting Kim in another summit. human rights of workers”, including those workers committee’s work. Because of the temporary The DPRK, however, has shown little inter- who had been repatriated to DPRK in accordance measures adopted during the COVID-19 est in meeting with the US. The last time the with Security Council resolution 2397 which stipu- pandemic, the briefing is expected to be held US and the DPRK negotiating teams met in a lated that DPRK workers had to be repatriated no as a closed videoconference (VTC). working-level session was in October 2019 in later than 22 December 2019. Sweden. That session ended without an out- Key Recent Developments come, and since then, there has been no direct Key Issues and Options Over the past several months, the security engagement between the two sides. This year, and particularly in recent months, situation on the Korean peninsula has been The DPRK has taken strict measures to there has been a steady increase in tensions marked by persistent instability and a deep- stop the spread of COVID-19 from neigh- on the Korean peninsula, as evidenced by the ening rift between the DPRK and the Repub- bouring countries. Starting in January, the DPRK’s heightened rhetoric. The DPRK has lic of Korea (ROK). The tensions between DPRK closed its borders, banned inter- resumed testing ballistic missiles and shown the two escalated in early June when the national tourism, and imposed mandatory no interest in continuing the inter-Korean DPRK denounced the ROK for allowing quarantines on those suspected of having dialogue and diplomatic talks with the US defectors from the north to disseminate pro- been in contact with anyone who could be on denuclearisation. Given the volatile secu- paganda leaflets across the border. In retalia- infected with the virus that causes the dis- rity environment, the Council is primarily tion, the DPRK announced that it would cut ease. The DPRK officials have reported no concerned with maintaining stability on the all communication channels with the ROK confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the coun- Korean peninsula. An option for the Council and abandon commitments made during the try, a claim that is disputed by many inter- would be to consider issuing a formal out- 2018 inter-Korean summits. national observers. On 26 July, the DPRK come addressing the need for stability and DPRK leader Kim Jong-un and ROK reported its first suspected case of COV- the resumption of diplomatic talks. President Moon Jae-in held three summits in ID-19 in the city of Kaesong by an individ- As is clear from the final report of the Pan- 2018, during which they agreed on a series of ual who illegally crossed the border from the el of Experts, the effectiveness of the sanc- measures to improve relations between the two ROK. No further details were provided. The tions regime in light of continued sanctions nations and promote reunification of Korea DPRK has started easing some restrictive violations by the DPRK remains an ongoing through diplomatic means. One of the out- measures over the past several weeks. Com- issue for the Council. In addressing this, the comes of the rapprochement was the estab- mercial activity between the DPRK and its Council could consider other ways of secur- lishment of the inter-Korean liaison office in main trading partner, China, has declined ing stricter enforcement or consider issuing a the city of Kaesong on the DPRK side of the substantially as a result of the restrictions, statement calling on member states to adhere border. In an escalatory move on 16 June, the causing a sharp rise in the price of food and to existing sanctions measures. DPRK used explosives to completely demolish other consumer goods in the DPRK. Inter- A related issue for the Council, and espe- the liaison office while the military announced national aid agencies have warned that this cially for some members, is the impact of plans to move troops into the demilitarised development is likely to contribute to great- sanctions on the humanitarian situation in zone between the two countries. After meet- er food insecurity and to have negative con- the country. The global COVID-19 pandemic ing with the Workers’ Party’s Central Military sequences for the humanitarian situation. has only exacerbated these concerns. While Commission on 23 June, Kim called off the On 28 July, the Council met under “any the DPRK has said that it has no confirmed military plans against the ROK but provided other business” to discuss the situation in cases, the potential impact of the pandemic on no details about the decision. the DPRK. The meeting focused on issues the DPRK could be severe. Should the COV- On the diplomatic front, the efforts to related to cap oil exports to the DPRK and a ID-19 pandemic affect the DPRK, the Coun- denuclearise the Korean peninsula have technical issue of ton/barrel conversion rate. cil could consider options for temporary and remained at an impasse ever since the collapse The meeting was initiated by Belgium, Esto- targeted sanctions relief to mitigate the impact. of the February 2019 US-DPRK summit in nia, France, Germany, and the UK. Hanoi. The US Special Representative for Council Dynamics North Korea, Stephen Biegun, visited Seoul Human Rights-Related Developments Members continue to be divided over the role from 7 through 9 July and held talks with At its 43rd session, the Human Rights Council of sanctions in addressing the nuclear threat (HRC) adopted without a vote resolution 43/25 senior ROK officials. He expressed support posed by the DPRK. The US has been a which renewed the mandate of the Special

UN DOCUMENTS ON DPRK Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2515 (30 March 2020) extended the mandate of the Panel of Experts of the 1718 DPRK Sanctions Committee until 30 April 2021. S/RES/2397 (22 December 2017) tightened sanctions on the DPRK. Security Council Letters S/2020/266 (6 April 2020) contained the written procedure voting record on resolution 2515 that extended the mandate of the Panel of Experts of the 1718 DPRK Sanctions Committee. S/2020/246 (30 March 2020) was from the president of the Security Council containing the results of the vote on resolution 2515. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8682 (11 December 2019) was an open briefing on non-proliferation focused on the DPRK. Sanctions Committee Documents S/2020/151 (2 March 2020) was the final report of the Panel of Experts. S/2019/971 (20 December 2019) was the annual report of the 1718 DPRK Sanctions Committee.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast August 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 19 DPRK (North Korea) strong proponent of maintaining the policy of proposal remains stalled because of insuffi- The US has been reluctant to address the maximum pressure until the DPRK takes con- cient support from other Council members. DPRK’s ballistic missile tests in the Coun- crete steps toward denuclearisation. The EU Council members have been general- cil in light of its diplomatic efforts. Several members of the Council are generally support- ly united in their concern about potential other Council members, particularly Euro- ive of this approach. On the other hand, China consequences of spread COVID-19 for the pean members, have pushed for discussions and Russia have shown interest in considering DPRK. On this front, there has been broad following the recent tests. some form of sanctions relief and in Decem- support among 1718 Committee members The US is the penholder on the DPRK, and ber 2019 circulated a draft resolution provid- for accelerating the process for considering Ambassador Christoph Heusgen (Germany) ing partial sanctions relief for the DPRK. The humanitarian exceptions. chairs the 1718 DPRK Sanctions Committee.

Mali

Expected Council Action respectively, and the President of the ECOW- unconstitutional ascension to power. In August, the Council is due to renew the AS Commission, Jean-Claude Kassi Brou— Several days later, on 23 July, the presidents Mali sanctions regime, which expires on 31 were in Mali to mediate the dispute. The of Côte d’Ivoire, , Niger, Nigeria, and August, as well as the mandate of the Panel ministerial mission called for the formation of went to Bamako to meet with Presi- of Experts, which expires on 30 September. a unity government and rerunning the elec- dent Keita and Dicko. On 27 July, ECOWAS Ahead of the sanctions renewal, the Coun- tions for the disputed legislative seats. held an extraordinary summit on the crisis, cil is expected to receive the Mali Panel of On 11 and 12 July, at least 11 protesters conducted virtually, where the heads of state Experts’ final report. were killed and 150 people were injured in reported on their mission. In its recommen- The mandate of the UN Multidimension- Bamako. Security forces fired live ammuni- dations following the summit, ECOWAS pro- al Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali tion at protesters who looted the parliament, posed that the 31 MPs whose electoral results (MINUSMA) expires on 30 June 2021. besieged the national broadcaster’s office, were contested resign and that new elections and attacked the offices of the ruling party. be held. It again recommended the formation Key Recent Developments In a 12 July joint statement, MINUSMA, the of a unity government that includes the oppo- Since June, Mali has seen a fresh sociopolitical AU, ECOWAS and the EU condemned “any sition. ECOWAS said its plan should be imple- crisis, with tens of thousands of people pro- form of violence as a means of crisis reso- mented within ten days and recommended testing in Bamako against the government. A lution” and also condemned the authori- sanctions against those who impede it. That coalition of opposition and civil society groups ties’ “use of lethal force” to maintain order. same day, Council members held a closed vid- known as the June 5 Movement-Rally of The joint statement encouraged the govern- eoconference, requested by Russia, on the situ- Patriotic Forces (M5-RFP) and led by Imam ment to release protest leaders who had been ation. In press elements, members expressed Mahmoud Dicko organised mass protests on arrested and expressed support for ECOW- strong support for ECOWAS’ mediation and 5 and 19 June, calling for the resignation of AS’ proposals to end the crisis. That same took note of the summit recommendations. President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita because of day, Keita announced that he had dissolved In July, French and Estonian troops continued insecurity, the struggling economy, the constitutional court and said that he was deployed to Mali as the first units of the newly corruption, and the Constitutional Court’s willing to consider re-doing the contested launched Task Force Takuba. The French-led decision to annul 5.2-percent of the votes cast legislative elections. Amid the unrest, Mali special-forces operation, which will include in the long-delayed legislative elections held continues to face terrorist attacks in its centre contingents from other European countries, this spring. The court’s ruling on 30 April, a and north as well as inter-communal violence. will support Malian forces fighting the Islam- key trigger for the demonstrations, overturned A second ECOWAS mission was in Mali ic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) in the provisional results for 31 seats (out of 147), from 15 to 19 July, led by former Nigerian Liptako-Gourma border region with Burkina which increased the parliamentary representa- President Goodluck Jonathan. The M5-RFP Faso and Niger. tion of Keita’s party by ten seats. rejected the ECOWAS reform proposals On 29 June, the Council renewed the From 18 to 20 June, a high-level delega- because they did not call for Keita to resign. mandate of MINUSMA for one year. The tion of the Economic Community of West Conversely, the ECOWAS communiqué on new mandate updated last year’s bench- African States (ECOWAS)—including the the mission made clear that Keita’s resig- marks—referred to as priority measures in the Nigérien and Nigerian foreign ministers, nation was a red line for the regional bloc, text—for implementing the 2015 Mali Peace Kalla Ankourao and Geoffrey Onyeama, stating that it would “not tolerate” any and Reconciliation Agreement between the

UN DOCUMENTS ON MALI Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2531 (29 June 2020) renewed the mandate of MINUSMA until 30 June 2021. S/RES/2484 (29 August 2019) renewed the Mali sanctions measures until 31 August 2020 and the mandate of the Panel of Experts until 30 September 2020. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2020/7 (28 July 2020) was on the situation in West Africa and the Sahel, urging Malian stakeholders to prioritise the use of dialogue to resolve political tensions, based on ECOWAS recommendations Security Council Press Statement SC/14213 (14 June 2020) condemned an attack on a MINUSMA convoy in which two Egyptian peacekeepers were killed. Sanctions Committee Documents SC/14156 (3 April 2020) was a 2374 Mali Sanctions Committee press release on its meeting with Mali and regional states on the sanctions regime. S/2020/158 (28 February 2020) was the mid-term report of the Mali Panel of Experts.

20 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast August 2020 Mali Security Council Report Staff Karin Landgren Executive Director government and armed groups in the north repercussions for implementing the peace Joanna Weschler on security sector reform, constitutional and agreement and addressing the ongoing major Deputy Executive Director other institutional reforms, the development security threats in Mali’s north and centre. Shamala Kandiah Thompson of the north, and the participation of women. A key issue for August will be assessing the Deputy Executive Director It also established benchmarks for the Malian impact of the Mali sanctions—an assets freeze Paul Romita Senior Policy Analyst government to meet in central Mali over the and travel ban—established in 2017 for indi- next year for re-establishing state presence and viduals or entities threatening the peace, secu- Alina Entelis Policy Analyst state authority and for fighting impunity. rity and stability of Mali. Sanctions remain an Teale Harold In a 28 July presidential statement on West important Council tool to pressure the sig- Policy Analyst Africa and the Sahel, the Council urged Mali- natory parties of the 2015 peace agreement Lindiwe Knutson an stakeholders to prioritise the use of dia- to advance the accord’s implementation, for Policy Analyst logue to resolve the situation, without delay, which there have been signs of greater progress Robert Schupp based on ECOWAS’ recommendations from this year. A criticism of the sanctions’ applica- Policy Analyst

19 July; to refrain from any action likely to tion is that current sanctioned individuals are Vladimir Sesar fuel further tensions; and to work inclusively all from the north, including the one parlia- Policy Analyst and constructively to preserve the rule of law. mentarian who is listed by the 2374 Mali Sanc- Vanessa Tiede tions Committee. One issue is how to be more Policy Analyst Human Rights-Related Developments balanced in also targeting the government for Benjamin Villanti In a 17 July press briefing note, the spokesperson hindering the agreement’s implementation. Policy Analyst for the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Members could further consider how the sanc- Robbin VanNewkirk Liz Throssell, said that there was particular con- Website Manager cern about the events in Bamako from 10 to 12 tions regime may be used to support efforts July when special forces (the Force spéciale anti- to stabilise the situation in central Mali. The Audrey Waysse Operations Manager terroriste, or Forsat) were reported to have fired 2374 Mali Sanctions Committee is expected lethal ammunition during clashes with demonstra- to discuss the Panel of Experts’ final report in Maritza Lopez tors. The Human Rights and Protection Division of Administrative Assistant early August ahead of the expected renewal of MINUSMA confirmed that at least 14 protesters— Anna Haven including one woman and two boys—were killed the sanctions regime later in the month. Research Assistant and 154 others injured. Throssell said that it was essential that “all alleged human rights violations Council Dynamics Security Council Report is a non-profit and acts of violence committed during the dem- On sanctions, the P3, among other Coun- organisation supported by the Governments of onstrations are the subject of prompt, thorough, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, cil members, support their use against those Estonia, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Indonesia, transparent and independent investigations and Ireland, Kuwait, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, that those responsible are held accountable”. obstructing the peace agreement. Russia is the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, The note also mentioned that the MINUSMA the most sceptical about sanctions, at times Portugal, Republic of Korea, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Human Rights and Protection Division, in line with raising concerns about whether new des- Switzerland, Turkey and United Arab Emirates, its mandate, had launched a fact-finding mission ignations may further alienate spoilers, as and Carnegie Corporation. to “examine allegations of serious human rights opposed to the intended effect of changing Design Point Five, NY violations perpetrated in connection with the pro- tests”. Throssell reported that the Malian National their behaviour. Human Rights Commission said on 13 July that it On the current political crisis, the A3 have Security Council Report 711 Third Avenue, Suite 1501 had been denied access to the demonstrators in championed ECOWAS’ positions and efforts, New York NY 10017 custody. OHCHR had reminded the authorities “of which members appear to support. Overall, their obligations to support, and not impede, the Telephone +1 212 759 6394 Council members remain concerned about the Fax +1 212 759 4038 work of the national human rights institution and Web securitycouncilreport.org civil society organisations which play an important security situation and consider implementation whatsinblue.org role regarding the promotion and protection of of the peace agreement as crucial for achieving Follow @SCRtweets on Twitter the human rights of everyone in Mali”, she said. broader stability in the Sahel. Niger has been On 22 June, the Human Rights Council (HRC) profoundly affected by Mali’s insecurity, with adopted without a vote resolution 43/38 on “tech- spillover from terrorist groups. The US has nical assistance and capacity-building for Mali in the field of human rights”. The resolution under- questioned the effectiveness of MINUSMA, at scored that Security Council resolution 2374 of times pitting its positions on Mali against other 2017 “establishes a regime of targeted sanctions Council members that consider the mission’s against, in particular…those who plan, direct or role to be crucial. The June mandate renewal conduct human rights violations or abuses or for MINUSMA, however, proceeded more violations of international humanitarian law”. The HRC resolution also noted the subsequent impo- smoothly than members thought might be the sition of Council sanctions on eight individuals in case in light of the US’ views on the mission, December 2018 and July 2019. its cost, and frustration over the peace accord’s faulty implementation. Key Issues and Options France is the penholder on Mali. Ambassa- The recent political crisis and protests dor José Singer Weisinger (Dominican Repub- pose a new issue of concern, with potential lic) chairs the 2374 Mali Sanctions Committee.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast August 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 21