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Monthly Forecast August 2020 Monthly Forecast 1 Overview Overview 2 In Hindsight: Six Days, Five Resolutions, One Border Crossing Indonesia has the presidency of the Security the programme of work. There will be the three 4 Status Update since our Council in August. While the Security Council monthly Syria meetings: open and closed VTCs July Forecast is expected to continue to work largely remote- on the political and humanitarian situation and 6 Counter-Terrorism ly, due to COVID-19 restrictions, it may hold a closed VTC on the use of chemical weapons. some meetings on UN premises. Unless there The monthly meetings on developments in Yemen 7 Iraq are further refinements made to the temporary and on the situation in the Middle East, including 9 Syria provisional measures agreed to over the last few the Palestinian Question are also planned in both 10 Guinea-Bissau months, remote meetings will continue to be open and closed format. In addition, the Council 13 Lebanon deemed as unofficial and held as videoconferenc- will meet for a briefing on recent developments 14 Pandemics, es (VTC), either open (briefings, debates or open in Iraq and on the two latest Secretary-General’s Peacebuilding and debates) or closed (consultations). A 24-hour reports, on the UN Assistance Mission in Iraq and Sustaining Peace written procedure will continue to be used for on the issue of missing Kuwaiti and third-country 16 Yemen adoptions unless members agree to hold an in- nationals and missing Kuwaiti property, including person meeting. the national archives. 17 Somalia There will be a strong focus on counter-terror- Meetings in open and closed format are also 19 DPRK (North Korea) ism issues. Indonesia has chosen to hold a minis- planned ahead of adoptions to renew the UN 20 Mali terial-level open debate on the linkages between missions in Lebanon (UNIFIL) and Somalia terrorism and transnational organised crime. (UNSOM). An adoption is also expected to renew The possible briefers are UN Secretary-General the Mali sanctions regime, as well as the mandate António Guterres, Under-Secretary-General of of its Panel of Experts. the UN Office of Counter-Terrorism Vladimir The Council will be briefed on the latest Sec- Voronkov, and Executive Director of the UN retary-General’s report on the UN Integrated Office on Drugs and Crime, Ghada Waly. There Peacebuilding Office inGuinea-Bissau (UNIOG- will also be a briefing on the Secretary-General’s BIS), as well as developments in the country fol- biannual strategic-level report on the threat posed lowing the post-electoral crisis earlier in the year. by the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL The quarterly briefing by the chair of the 1718 or Da’esh). The expected briefers are Voronkov DPRK Sanctions Committee in a closed session and Executive Director of the Counter-Terrorism is also anticipated in August. Executive Directorate Michèle Coninsx. Council members may also participate in a Indonesia’s other open debate is peacebuilding “virtual visiting mission” to meet with key stake- and challenges posed by pandemics to sustaining holders in Somalia ahead of the adoption. peace. This follows the Informal Interactive Dia- The Council will be watching developments logue on the same topic in July. The likely briefers in Burundi, Iran, Libya, Myanmar and Sudan, include Guterres, former Secretary-General Ban as well as those related to the Grand Ethiopian Ki-moon and Sarah Cliffe, Director of New York Renaissance Dam, and additional meetings may University’s Center on International Cooperation. be added as necessary. Several regular Middle East meetings are on 31 July 2020 This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org. For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” series at whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. Security Council Report Monthly Forecast August 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 1 In Hindsight: Six Days, Five Resolutions, One Border Crossing During the second week of July, the Secu- December 2019, as two competing draft res- would re-authorise the Bab al-Salam and rity Council struggled to re-authorise the olutions—tabled by co-penholders Belgium, Bab al-Hawa crossings for 12 months. Rus- Syria cross-border humanitarian aid deliv- Germany and Kuwait and by Russia—were sia, China and the US broke silence on the ery mechanism, which was set to expire at vetoed and received an insufficient number text for different reasons, all of which would midnight on Friday, 10 July. Only after four of affirmative votes, respectively. When reso- continue to bedevil the negotiations. Russia draft resolutions failed to be adopted did the lution 2504 was adopted on 10 January, the argued that the text did not take into account Council finally reach agreement. The pro- mandate was renewed for only six months its positions on the initial draft circulated cess that eventually led to the adoption of rather than 12, and while Bab al-Salam and on 16 June, while China advocated for lan- resolution 2533 was acrimonious and not Bab al-Hawa were re-authorised, the al- guage supporting Secretary-General António only resulted in the Council’s re-authorising Ramtha and the Al Yarubiyah crossings were Guterres’ call in March to waive sanctions, just a single border crossing—thus reducing removed. Resolution 2504 was adopted by a in general, to allow countries access to food, the UN’s capacity to deliver humanitarian vote of 11 in favour, none against, and four essential health supplies, and COVID-19 assistance to Syria’s north-west—but again abstentions, including China and Russia; the medical support, and requesting the Secre- laid bare the Council’s deep divisions over UK abstained arguing that 2504 “reduce[d]s tary-General to report on the impact of sanc- Syria. Russia and China vetoed two resolu- aid provision for vulnerable populations” and tions on Syria. The US wanted the text to also tions in the course of the week, and two Rus- the US, also abstaining, said that the reso- include the re-authorisation of the Al Yarubi- sian-sponsored texts failed to reach enough lution was “wholly inadequate to the needs yah crossing for six months. votes to pass. The challenge of the week’s of the Syrian people”. In short, though there With an impending expiration of the negotiations and multiple failed votes was had already been strong hints of Russia’s and cross-border mandate, the co-penholders exacerbated by the way the Council has had China’s wish to move from cross-border to put in blue a draft resolution on Monday, 6 to work during the COVID-19 pandemic, cross-line delivery of humanitarian assistance July. The Council had agreed in March to with a written voting procedure and lack of in previous years, the period from December a 24-hour written adoption procedure in in-person meetings. 2019 to January 2020 brought this to the fore. response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which meant that unlike normal circumstances, the Background on the Cross-Border A Circuitous Path to Adoption Council would not be able to vote relatively Mechanism It was no surprise, then, that the process that swiftly on another draft resolution if this draft The UN cross-border aid delivery mecha- led to the adoption of resolution 2533 on was not adopted. As had been widely antici- nism was established by resolution 2165, 11 July proved difficult. Negotiations began pated, the draft resolution was vetoed by Rus- which was unanimously adopted on 14 July on 16 June, with the Syria humanitarian co- sia and China. 2014. It authorised UN agencies and human- penholders (Belgium and Germany) circu- On Wednesday, 8 July, a draft resolu- itarian partners, with notification to the Syr- lating an initial draft that contained both the tion circulated by Russia and calling for re- ian authorities, to use the border crossings renewal of the Bab al-Salam and Bab al-Hawa authorisation of one border crossing, at Bab at Bab al-Salam and Bab al-Hawa (both on crossings for 12 months and the re-authorisa- al-Hawa, for six months, was not adopted, the Syrian-Turkish border), Al Yarubiyah (on tion of the Al Yarubiyah crossing for an initial having received only four votes in favour the Syrian-Iraqi border) and Al-Ramtha (on period of six months in light of the impact of (Russia, China, Viet Nam and South Africa), the Syrian-Jordanian border) “to ensure that COVID-19, with a review to assess if another with seven against (Belgium, the Dominican assistance, including medical and surgical six months would be needed. It seemed that Republic, Estonia, France, Germany, the UK supplies, reached people in need throughout most Council members—including all ten and the US) and four abstentions (Indone- Syria through the most direct routes”. The elected members—supported keeping Bab al- sia, Niger, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines mechanism was subsequently renewed annu- Salam and Bab al-Hawa open. A number of and Tunisia). On Friday morning, 10 July, a ally by unanimous vote in December 2014 members also argued that the Council should new co-penholders’ draft, calling for the re- (resolution 2191), December 2015 (resolu- authorise the re-opening of Al Yarubiyah giv- authorisation of the Bab al-Salam and Bab al- tion 2258) and December 2016 (resolution en the potentially devastating impact that Hawa border crossings for six months instead 2332). Beginning with resolution 2393 in COVID-19 could have on Syria’s north-east. of 12, was again vetoed by Russia and China, December 2017, consensus on the Coun- No Council members officially commented with all other Council members supporting cil began to unravel, with China and Russia on the text.
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