October 2020

Monthly Forecast

1 Overview Overview 2 In Hindsight: The Annual Report to the General Assembly - holds the presidency in October. Much to that, Council members will meet on the mis- Can It Be Improved? of the Council’s work is likely to remain remote sion’s work and developments in Western Sahara. 3 Status Update since our due to COVID-19 restrictions, although an effort Several other African issues are on the pro- September Forecast is underway to hold several meetings on UN gramme. Meetings are anticipated on: 5 Libya premises. • the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in 7 Comprehensive Review Russia will hold a debate focusing on a com- the Democratic ; of the Situation in the prehensive review of the peace and security situa- • the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabili- Gulf Region tion in the Persian Gulf region under the agenda zation Mission in ; 8 item “Maintenance of international peace and • the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabili- security”. This signature event appears to have zation Mission in the Central African Repub- 10 UNDOF (Golan Heights) grown out of a concept for the region that Rus- lic; and 11 sia proposed in 2019. Secretary-General António • the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei. 12 Guterres is a possible briefer. Briefings are planned on the work of the 1533 14 Democratic Republic of Two open debates are also anticipated late in DRC Sanctions Committee and the 751 Somalia the Congo the month. The quarterly open debate on “The Sanctions Committee. 16 Mali situation in the Middle East, including the Pales- Special Envoy for the Great Lakes Region tinian Question” is expected to feature a briefing Huang Xia is also scheduled to provide his bian- 17 Western Sahara by Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace nual briefing to the Council in October on the 19 Process Nickolay Mladenov. There will also be an implementation of the Peace, Security and Coop- 20 Central African open debate on Women, Peace and Security; pos- eration Framework for the DRC and the region. Republic sible briefers include the Secretary-General, UN In addition to the open debate on the Persian 21 Kosovo Women Executive Director Phumzile Mlambo- Gulf region and the quarterly open debate on the 23 / Ngucka, a female peacekeeper, and a civil soci- Middle East, there will be several other meetings ety representative. The event will mark the 20th on Middle East topics. 24 The Middle East, including the anniversary of the adoption of resolution 1325, The usual monthly meetings on Yemen and on Palestinian Question the Council’s first on the topic of women, peace the political, humanitarian, and chemical weap- and security. A resolution is a possible outcome. ons tracks in Syria are anticipated. The political 25 Somalia Three adoptions are currently scheduled for and humanitarian briefings on Syria are likely to 26 Lebanon October. The Council expects to adopt a reso- be combined. Meetings on the UN Disengage- 28 Women, Peace and lution renewing the authorisation for member ment Observer Force in the Golan Heights and Security states to inspect vessels suspected of being used the implementation of resolution 1559 (Lebanon) for migrant smuggling or human trafficking off are also scheduled. the coast of Libya. The one European issue currently on the pro- The Council intends to adopt a resolution gramme this month is Kosovo. renewing the mandate of the UN Integrated Also this month, President of the Internation- Office inHaiti in October. Earlier in the month, a al Court of Justice Abdulqawi Ahmed Yusuf will briefing is scheduled on Haiti. Also on the Ameri- provide the annual briefing to the Council, most cas, the Council plans to meet on developments in likely in a private meeting. 30 September 2020 This report is available online at Colombia, including the work of the UN Verifica- The Council is likely to continue to follow securitycouncilreport.org. tion Mission in Colombia. closely developments in Nagorno-Karabakh, For daily insights by SCR on evolving The mandate of the UN Mission for the Refer- among other cases, in October. Security Council actions please subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” endum in Western Sahara will be renewed. Prior series at whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 1 In Hindsight: The Annual Report to the General Assembly— Can It Be Improved?

The Security Council’s annual report to the preparing for the opening of the next session. had swollen to almost 600 pages. Thus, the General Assembly has been one of the most Only a few participated in the report’s discus- report would no longer reproduce the month- belaboured aspects of the Council’s working sion. In 2019, the annual report was again ly assessments in full but would simply list the methods. Numerous initiatives undertaken adopted in August but, when scheduling the assessments “issued by the individual month- by member states since 1993 have aimed at discussion at the General Assembly, its presi- ly Presidencies of the Council on its work”. making the report more useful to its princi- dent allowed more time for preparations. This At the same time, the Council would begin pal addressee, the General Assembly, and to time, 27 speakers, including 14 permanent the practice of assigning responsibility for the general public. The most recent of these representatives, participated. drafting an introductory essay for the annual initiatives culminated in the adoption on This year, the Council adopted its 2019 report to one of its members (the July presi- 27 December 2019 of a note by the presi- annual report on 14 July, earlier than in pre- dency) to enhance its analytical content. The dent of the Security Council, tightening the vious years, during its first in-person meet- note also said that during the public meeting report’s preparation timeline with the aim of ing since the special measures necessitated when the report is adopted, “members of the presenting it to the General Assembly before by the COVID-19 pandemic went into effect Council who wish to do so could comment the beginning of summer, starting with the in mid-March. In turn, the 31 August dis- on the work of the Council for the period report for 2020. cussion in the General Assembly (held as an covered by the report”. The Council’s only Changes to the annual reporting process informal virtual meeting) included 37 mem- public debate on the adoption of its annual have come in response to pressure from the ber states, most of them represented by per- report took place in 2002, and the introduc- UN membership, which since the end of the manent representatives. tion, which initially was indeed analytical, Cold War has been increasingly called upon The most recent adjustment of the time- soon started losing this edge. to implement Council decisions in matters line—stipulating that starting with the 2020 Based on conversations with diplomats such as and sanctions and has report, its adoption should happen by 30 charged with drafting the introductory essay wanted better insight into, and more account- May “in time for its consideration by the in the last few years, it appears that achieving ability for, the Council’s work. Among recur- General Assembly immediately thereafter”— analytical content is hard for both substan- rent criticisms were calls for the Council to will be tested for the first-time next year. It tive and political reasons. Substantively, the make the annual report more analytical and may lead to more predictability and thus a monthly assessments by different presiden- for its timeline to allow for a thorough exami- more deliberate treatment of the report by cies—which constituted important primary nation by members prior to the discussion at the General Assembly. material for the drafters of the introduction the General Assembly. The situation seems to be more complex and since 1997 had been produced by all Responding to the timing-related concerns, with respect to addressing the other major presidencies, usually quite quickly—have, in the Council revised the process for the elabo- criticism of the annual report: its insuffi- the last few years, been submitted erratically. ration of the annual report in 2015, chang- cient analytical content. For more than two When the 2017 and 2018 annual reports were ing the reporting cycle to a calendar year decades, the Council has made an effort to circulated, only three of the 12 presidencies and moving the presentation of the report inject an element of analysis into the report. for each year had submitted assessments. For from the main part of the General Assem- In a 1997 note by the president that out- 2019, eight members submitted their assess- bly’s regular session to the following spring. lined a new structure for the annual report, ments in time to be used if the introduction Until then, the Council’s annual report had Council members specified that the report drafter so desired. Politically, the heightened covered the 12-month period ending shortly would contain, as an addendum, “brief divisiveness within the Council during the before the General Assembly session at which assessments on the work of the Security past several years has made agreeing on the it would be presented. In practice, there was Council, which representatives who have introduction—which is a consensus docu- usually insufficient time between the comple- completed their functions as President of the ment—more difficult and time-consuming. tion of the report and the end of the main Security Council may wish to prepare, under Some options for making the report more session for members to examine the report their own responsibility and following consul- useful and its discussion more substantive thoroughly ahead of its discussion. tations with members of the Council for the have emerged from the General Assembly’s Despite the intention to afford member month during which they presided and which considerations of the report and the work- states more time for the study and discus- should not be considered as representing the ing methods open debates at the Council and sion of the report, the opposite happened in views of the Council”. Up to that point, the from the observations of interested diplomats. the first two years after moving to a calendar- annual report had been prepared by the Sec- With the Council due to adopt the 2020 year cycle. The introductions of the 2017 and retariat and did not contain any input from report by 30 May 2021, the General Assem- 2018 reports were finalised much later than Council members. bly should schedule its discussion in June, as the intended 31 January deadline, the reports’ A 2002 note by the president of the Coun- several participants in this year’s Assembly adoption took place in August, and the Gen- cil introduced several changes to the struc- discussion suggested. Early consultations eral Assembly discussed the reports at the very ture of the annual report, many of which between the two bodies’ presidencies could end of its session, with most delegations busy were aimed at reducing its volume, which facilitate advance planning.

2 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2020 In Hindsight: The Annual Report to the General Assembly— Can It Be Improved?

While producing and agreeing on the Various delegations suggested that, in be considered as representing the views of the introductory essay has been a challenge for addition to describing what the Council had Council. Assessments produced soon after Council members, it seems generally useful accomplished during the year, the introduc- the end of a presidency could be a vehicle when the drafting delegation assigns the lead tion should also analyse what the Council for providing both analysis and capturing writer early on, who then drafts as the year was unable to achieve. Other suggestions details that might later be overlooked. In a progresses rather than waiting for it to end. included analyses of trends in voting during sense, coming full circle to the point when Relieving the drafter of some of his or her reg- the year (such as unanimous versus contested the monthly assessments were introduced in ular diplomatic responsibilities may also be decisions, use of the veto, or non-adoptions 1997, the set of assessments from a given year helpful. Budgeting sufficient time for reach- because of an insufficient number of affirma- could form a companion piece to the annual ing consensus on the introduction’s content tive votes). The goal of such analyses, as Sin- report. Another opportunity for individual would be essential to meeting the 30 May gapore stressed, would be “to allow all mem- Council members to share their analyses of deadline for the report’s adoption. bers of the General Assembly to understand the Council’s work during a particular year— Making the introductory essay more ana- trends in the Council so that all of us can and thus enhancing the Council’s transpar- lytical is probably a bigger challenge, and work together to build convergence on the ency and accountability to the broader mem- delegations put forward specific recommen- most important issues of the day”. bership—would be their own participation in dations during the 31 August informal dis- Whether it is possible to agree on a the public discussion during the meeting held cussion of the 2019 report. more analytical essay under today’s Coun- to adopt the annual report. The most recent Several speakers—including Switzer- cil dynamics remains a question. During compendium of working methods, the 2017 land, speaking on behalf of Accountabil- the May Council open debate on working “Note 507”, stresses that during that meeting, ity, Coherence and Transparency (ACT), a methods as well as in the Assembly’s infor- “members of the Council who wish to do so diverse group of 25 member states sharing mal discussion of the annual report, sev- may comment on the work of the Council for the objective of encouraging better Securi- eral members highlighted the importance the period covered by the report”. ty Council working methods and enhanced of all Council presidencies’ producing their Also this month, President of the Inter- transparency—suggested that the drafters respective assessments of the work during national Court of Justice Abdulqawi Ahmed focus attention not only on individual files that month. It has been stressed that the Yusuf will provide the annual briefing to the but also address trends in the areas of inter- assessments, while produced in consulta- Council, most likely in a private meeting. national peace and security and the work of tion with Council members, are submitted the Council. by the individual delegations and should not

Status Update since our September Forecast

Afghanistan another year, until 17 September 2021. On NGO; and Volha Siakhovich, a law expert for On 3 September, Council members held 18 September, in a press statement, Council the Belarusian Association of Journalists. an open VTC meeting on the situation in members welcomed the start of the negotia- (S/2020/891). Deborah Lyons, tions in Doha (SC/14310). Cooperation between the UN and Special Representative for Afghanistan and Regional Organisations: the Role of head of UNAMA, briefed on recent devel- the International Organization of La opments and the Secretary-General’s report On 4 September, there was an Arria-formu- Francophonie on UNAMA, issued on 18 August. The la meeting on human rights in Belarus held On 8 September, Council president Council was also briefed by Saad Mohseni, via VTC. The meeting was co-organised by held an open VTC meeting on the relation- Chief Executive of MOBY GROUP, which Council members Estonia, the UK and the ship between the UN and the Organisation includes Afghanistan’s largest media com- US and co-sponsored by , , Internationale de la Francophonie (OIF) pany. On 12 September, significant progress Iceland, Latvia, , , to acknowledge the 50th anniversary of the was made in the Afghan peace process, as the and . Minister of Foreign Affairs of organisation’s founding in Niamey, Niger. negotiation teams of the Afghan government Estonia Urmas Reinsalu chaired the meet- The meeting’s briefers were the Secretary- and the Taliban met in Doha, Qatar, for a ing. Briefings were delivered by Anaïs Marin, General of the OIF, Louise Mushikiwabo; first round of intra-Afghan talks, which are UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of Bintou Keita, Assistant Secretary-General aimed at achieving a political settlement to human rights in Belarus; Sviatlana Tsikha- for Africa; and Zohrab Mnatsakanyan, the the war in Afghanistan. On 15 September, the nouskaya, Belarusian opposition presidential Foreign Minister of , in his capac- Security Council adopted resolution 2543 candidate; Valiantsin Stefanovic, Vice-Chair- ity as the Chair of the Ministerial Confer- which renewed the mandate of UNAMA for man of Viasna, a Minsk-based human rights ence of la Francophonie. This was the first

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 3 Status Update since our September Forecast

Council meeting focused on cooperation Mark Lowcock briefed. This was followed by humanitarian access, the Panglong peace with the OIF. Participants in the meeting a 24 September VTC summit-level debate on process, accountability, the Rakhine Advi- spoke about the importance of early warn- “global governance after COVID-19”. Secre- sory Commission recommendations, the ing and conflict prevention mechanisms, tary-General António Guterres and AU Com- tripartite memorandum of understanding promotion of sustainable development, the mission Chairperson Moussa Faki Mahamat between the government, UNDP need to include women and young people briefed at the session, which was chaired by and UNHCR, and the upcoming Novem- in peace processes, the OIF’s important Niger’s president, Mahamadou Issoufou and ber elections. While members showed some electoral observation missions, and more. organised during the General Assembly high- unity over concerns about the impact of the Speakers particularly emphasised the level week. The concept note for the meet- COVID-19 pandemic and the need for con- benefits of cooperation and partnerships ing (S/2020/883) described the “weaknesses” flict de-escalation, it seems they were divided between the OIF and other organisations, exposed by the COVID-19 pandemic in deal- along the usual lines regarding issues such such as regional groups and the UN. Several ing with the peace and security threats caused as accountability, international humanitarian speakers welcomed the fact that the virtual by the crisis, and stated that the purpose of the law and humanitarian access. meeting was held with simultaneous transla- summit was “to discuss the need for global tion, stressing that multilingualism is a cru- governance reform to strengthen convergence Peacekeeping cial part of the UN’s working methods. towards global sustainable peace and security”. On 14 September, the Security Council held its annual open debate on peacekeeping in Youth, Peace and Security Children and Armed Conflict accordance with resolution 2378, which On 9 September, an Arria-formula meeting On 10 September, the Security Council con- requests the Secretary-General to provide a on the implementation of Security Council vened for an in-person open debate on “Chil- comprehensive annual briefing on “reform resolutions on youth, peace and security by dren and Armed Conflict: Attacks against of peacekeeping” every 12 UN peace operations was held via VTC. It Schools as a Grave Violation of Children’s months and to update the Council on the was co-organised by the Dominican Repub- Rights”, which focused on the Sahel region “continuous efforts made in filling the existing lic, , , Niger, Saint Vincent (S/PV.8756). The Council was briefed by gaps in terms of force generation and capabil- and the Grenadines, and the Virginia Gamba, Special Representative for ities” (S/2020/911). Under-Secretary-Gener- US. The briefers at the meeting were Rose- Children and Armed Conflict; Henrietta al for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix mary DiCarlo, Under-Secretary-General for Fore, Executive Director of UNICEF; and briefed the Council on progress made in Political Affairs; Jean-Pierre Lacroix, Under- Marika Tsolakis, a representative from the advancing the Secretary-General’s Action for Secretary-General for Peace Operations; Global Coalition for the Protection of Edu- Peacekeeping initiative. Mauricio Artiñano, a representative from the cation from Attack. Council members were UN Verification Mission in Colombia; Iana also briefed by two young civil society briefers Counter-Terrorism Minochkina, youth adviser and coordinator from Niger: Rimana Mayaki, the president of On 14 September, the 1267/1989/2253 ISIL of the youth, peace and security program in the Children’s Parliament of Niger, and Had- (Da’esh) and Al-Qaida and 1988 Afghanistan UNMIK; Joao Scarpelini, former UN youth iza (who was identified only by her first name Sanctions Committees held the annual joint adviser in Somalia; Andjela Mirković, mem- for safety reasons), a member of an organ- open briefing for UN members. On 16 Sep- ber of the United Youth Task Force Network isation that promotes education in conflict tember, the 1267/1989/2253 ISIL (Da’esh) of Young Kosovo Peacebuilders; and Diellza zones. At the meeting, the Council adopted and Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee held a Geci, co-founder of the Kosovo Youth Fest. a presidential statement on attacks against closed VTC for the presentation of a report At the meeting, participants discussed best- schools, which was co-authored by Niger and by the Ombudsperson on a delisting request. practices and lessons learned regarding the (S/PRST/2020/8). The presidential implementation of resolutions 2250 (2015), statement reaffirmed the right to education South Sudan 2419 (2018) and 2535 (2020) by peacekeep- and its contribution to peace and security, On 16 September, Council members held ing operations and special political missions. while condemning the significant increase in an open VTC, followed by a closed VTC, attacks against schools in recent years. to discuss UNMISS (S/2020/914). The COVID-19 briefers were Nyachangkuouth Ramban On 9 September, Security Council members Myanmar Tai, representing the civil society organisa- held an open VTC on the implementation of On 11 September, the Council discussed tion Assistance Mission for Africa, and Spe- resolution 2532, which demanded a cessation Myanmar during a closed VTC. Special cial Representative and head of UNMISS of hostilities in all situations on the Council’s Envoy for Myanmar Christine Schraner David J. Shearer. Ramban Tai spoke about agenda to combat the COVID-19 pandemic Burgener, High Commissioner for Refu- intercommunal violence in South Sudan and (S/2020/897). Under-Secretary-General for gees Filippo Grandi, and Kanni Wignaraja, emphasised the Security Council’s protection Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix, Under- UNDP Assistant Administrator and Direc- of civilians role. Shearer described delays in Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuild- tor of the Regional Bureau for Asia and the security sector reform and in reconstituting ing Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo, and Under- Pacific briefed on a range of issues includ- the Transitional National Legislative Assem- Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs ing the need to de-escalate the conflict, bly in South Sudan.

4 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2020 Status Update since our September Forecast

Conflict-Induced Food Insecurity Lake Basin, although some partici- for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rose- On 17 September, Security Council mem- pants broadened the geographical scope of mary DiCarlo and Under-Secretary-Gen- bers held an open VTC on the protection the discussion. ICRC President Peter Maurer, eral for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lac- of civilians from conflict-induced hunger Executive Secretary of the UN Convention roix briefed on UNITAMS and UNAMID, (S/2020/930). Under-Secretary-General for to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) Ibra- respectively. The briefing followed the 3 June Humanitarian Affairs Mark Lowcock, Execu- him Thiaw, and UNCCD Earth Ambassador, adoption of resolutions 2524 and 2525. Res- tive Director of the artist and activist Inna Modja briefed. Mau- olution 2524 established UNITAMS for an David Beasley and the Director-General of rer spoke about his recent visit to Niger and initial period of 12 months, while resolution the Food and Agricultural Organisation, Qu , and the tensions precipitated 2525 extended UNAMID’s mandate until 31 Dongyu, briefed. Earlier in the month, on 4 by severe weather events. Thiaw spoke of December. Among other issues, the Council September, Lowcock sent Council members violence precipitated in the Sahel region over discussed the Secretary-General’s 17 Sep- a white paper warning about worsening food dwindling access to land and water resources. tember report, which suggested a structure insecurity, including the risk of famine, as a Modja described efforts to plant vegetation and geographical deployment for UNITAMS. result of armed conflict in the Democratic and trees across the Sahel to enhance stabil- Republic of the Congo, northeast , ity in the region. Nagorno-Karabakh South Sudan, and Yemen. The white paper On 29 September, Council members met had been sent in accordance with resolution Iraq under “any other business” on the situation 2417 of May 2018 that requests the Secre- On 18 September, the Security Council in Nagorno-Karabakh. Belgium, Estonia, tary-General to report swiftly to the Council unanimously adopted resolution 2544 renew- France, , and the UK requested the when there arises “the risk of conflict-induced ing the mandate of UNITAD until 18 Sep- meeting, considering the recent escalation of famine and widespread food insecurity”. tember 2021 (S/2020/920). Resolution 2544 hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh. Under-Sec- retains UNITAD’s mandate. It also aligns retary-General for Political and Peacebuild- The Humanitarian Effects of the term of the Special Adviser and head of ing Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo briefed on Environmental Degradation of Peace UNITAD with the term of UNITAD’s man- recent developments. Following the meeting, and Security date, and renews the Special Adviser’s term Council members issued press elements in On 17 September, Security Council mem- until 18 September 2021. In a 16 September which they voiced support for the Secretary- bers held a ministerial-level open debate in letter to the Council president, the Iraqi for- General’s call for an immediate end to the VTC format on the humanitarian effects eign minister had requested the renewal of fighting and a return to negotiations. They of environmental degradation and peace UNITAD’s mandate for one year. also expressed support for the central role of and security (S/2020/929). A concept note the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs, while was circulated in advance of the meet- Sudan urging the sides to work closely with them to ing (S/2020/882). Kalla Ankourao, Niger’s On 25 September, the Council held an in-per- resume dialogue without preconditions. Foreign Minister, chaired. The focus of the son briefing on Sudan in the ECOSOC cham- meeting was on the Sahel region and the ber (S/PV.8761). Under-Secretary-General

Libya

Expected Council Action 2526 (to inspect vessels believed to be in Key Recent Developments In October, the Security Council is expected violation of the arms embargo) expires on The Secretary-General’s latest report on the to renew the authorisation for member states, 5 June 2021, measures related to the illicit implementation of resolution 2491, which acting nationally or through regional organ- export of petroleum from Libya expire on extended the smuggling and trafficking-relat- isations, to inspect vessels on the high seas off 30 April 2021, and the mandate of the Panel ed vessel inspection authorisation in October the coast of Libya that they have reasonable of Experts assisting the 1970 Libya Sanc- 2019, said, “the Mediterranean Sea remains grounds to suspect are being used for migrant tions Committee expires on 15 May 2021. a high-volume and deadly thoroughfare for smuggling or human trafficking, which is set The mandate of the UN Support Mission the smuggling of, and trafficking in, refugees to expire on 3 October. in Libya (UNSMIL) expires on 15 Septem- and migrants”. The overall number of people The authorisation given by resolution ber 2021. arriving in Europe on the Central, Eastern and

UN DOCUMENTS ON LIBYA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2542 (15 September 2020) extended UNSMIL’s mandate until 15 September 2021; it was adopted with 13 votes in favour and two abstentions ( and Russia). S/RES/2526 (5 June 2020) renewed for 12 months the authorisation for member states, acting nationally or through regional organisa- tions, to inspect vessels on the high seas off the coast of Libya bound to or from the country that they have reasonable grounds to believe are violating the arms embargo.S/RES/2509 (11 February 2020) renewed the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee until 15 May 2021 as well as the measures related to the illicit export from Libya of petroleum until 30 April 2021; it was adopted with 14 votes in favour and one abstention (Russia). S/RES/2491 (3 October 2019) renewed for 12 months the authorisation for member states, acting nationally or through regional organisations, to inspect vessels on the high seas off the coast of Libya that they have reasonable grounds to suspect are being used for migrant smuggling or human trafficking.Secretary-General’s Report S/2020/876 (2 September 2020) was on the implementation of resolution 2491.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 5 Libya

Western Mediterranean routes decreased by asylum legislation, and authorities “do not reported that the operation had conducted around 30 percent in comparison to the same fully recognize the mandate of UNHCR in a total of 111 flights between its inception time period last year. Between 1 March and providing and overseeing the application and 31 July, reporting vessels in (potential) 31 July 2019, 28,000 migrants and refugees of international protection”, according to distress to the relevant national authorities. arrived in Europe by sea; between 1 March and the Secretary-General’s report. Migrants Operation Irini’s mandate does not include a 31 July of this year, the number stood at 20,000, and refugees continue to “suffer or witness search and rescue component. according to UNHCR and the International unspeakable brutality and inhumanity” dur- At the time of writing, the UN’s 2020 Organisation for Migration (IOM). The num- ing their attempts to get to Europe. About humanitarian response plan for Libya of ber of people departing from Libya during half of the people disembarked in Libya were $129.8 million was funded at 59.1 percent, that period saw an increase, however. In 2019, placed in overcrowded detention centres. For with $53.1 million outstanding. UNHCR reported 6,636 departures between the approximately 2,780 people being held 1 March and 31 July; in 2020 it reported 9,500 in official detention centres as at 31 July, the Human Rights-Related Developments departures within the same timeframe. conditions remain “horrific” as detainees During its 45th session, the Human Rights Coun- cil (HRC) was scheduled to consider, as part of The current security situation in Libya experience grave violations of their human an interactive dialogue on 5 October, an oral and the country’s lack of effective state insti- rights by officials and armed groups. The ill- update from a fact-finding mission to Libya that tutions have created a growing space for treatment reported included instances of tor- had been mandated to “establish the facts and organised crime, including the smuggling of ture, including sexual and gender-based vio- circumstances of the situation of human rights… migrants and trafficking in persons, accord- lence (in some cases leading to the death of and to collect and review relevant information to document alleged violations and abuses of ing to the EU. A person will pay between 500 the victims); enforced disappearances; forced international human rights law and international to 1,500 euros to get to Europe, depending labour; forced recruitment by armed groups; humanitarian law by all parties”. on the type of boat and how many people are insufficient health care and food; exposure travelling in it. By way of example, the Sec- to extreme heat; and lack of ventilation, light retary-General in his report calculated that a and electricity. The perpetrators continue to Key Issues and Options rubber boat which is able to carry 120 peo- commit these crimes with impunity. Grave The immediate issue for the Council in ple can bring human traffickers and migrant human rights violations are also reported in October is to adopt a resolution renewing smugglers a potential profit of 168,000 euros. unofficial detention centres run by both state the authorisation for member states, act- UNHCR and IOM said that the boats are and non-state armed groups, housing “hun- ing nationally or through regional organisa- often overcrowded and unseaworthy, and dreds of migrants and refugees”. tions, to inspect vessels on the high seas off smugglers frequently do not provide life The COVID-19 pandemic led some Euro- the coast of Libya that they have reasonable jackets, water or food. The EU reported that pean countries to temporarily refuse to allow grounds to suspect are being used for migrant smugglers continued to tactically avoid pro- disembarkations or the rescue of persons smuggling or human trafficking. viding enough fuel for the boats to reach in distress at sea and restrictions imposed European shores via the Central Mediterra- by states on vessels operated by non-gov- Council Dynamics nean but enough for the boats to leave Lib- ernmental organisations halted their rescue Members continue to be aware that inter- ya’s territorial sea. In order to avoid being operations for weeks. One country reportedly national efforts to combat the smuggling of captured themselves, the smugglers in some ordered commercial vessels to push boats in migrants and trafficking in persons, includ- cases leave the migrants and refugees in the distress back to the high seas. ing via vessels off the coast of Libya, need boats to complete the journey on their own. The impact of measures taken by states to be strengthened. The last three years have The Secretary-General re-emphasised aimed at preventing and combatting traffick- seen few changes in the authorisation to sup- that under international law, Libya is a safe ing in persons and migrant smuggling, includ- port those efforts, which made the negotia- port neither of disembarkation nor of return. ing through targeted sanctions imposed by tions less divisive than the initial discussion Policies of member states continue to result the Council through the 1970 Libya sanc- in 2015. Issues around flag state consent and in the disembarkation of migrants and refu- tions regime, “remains difficult to ascertain”, the authorisation to use force were sources of gees in Libya, however. The number of people according to the Secretary-General’s report. contention at the time. If the penholder aims returned to Libya after the vessels transport- The EU launched the military operation for little change to the text, negotiations may ing them were intercepted increased from in the Mediterranean (EUNAVFOR MED again be uncontentious. about 3,700 between 1 March and 31 July IRINI) on 1 April as the follow-on mission The UK is the penholder on Libya, shar- 2019 to about 4,450 in the same time period to EUNAVFOR MED SOPHIA. Operation ing the pen with Germany on the sanctions this year. About half of the people disem- Irini’s primary task is the implementation of file; Germany will draft the October authori- barked originally came from Sudan, accord- the arms embargo, a secondary task being sation renewal. Günter Sautter, Germany’s ing to estimates by the UNHCR. to disrupt “the business model of human Deputy Permanent Representative, chairs the Libya has no asylum procedure nor smuggling and trafficking networks”. The EU 1970 Libya Sanctions Committee.

6 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2020 Comprehensive Review of the Situation in the Gulf Region

Expected Council Action bilateral and multilateral consultations Resolution 2231 put in place specific In October, the Security Council is expected among stakeholders in the region and beyond, restrictions on, among other things, arms- to hold a debate focusing on a comprehen- including regional organisations. This would related transfers to and from , which are sive review of the situation in the Persian Gulf eventually lead to an international conference set to expire in October. The US has argued region under the agenda item “maintenance on security and cooperation in the Gulf dur- that Iran poses a threat to peace and security of international peace and security”. This is ing which stakeholders would be called upon in the region and that it continues to sup- a signature event of the Russian presidency, to agree on the main parameters of the future ply weapons to terrorist groups and proxies building on a concept for the region that Rus- security system. in violation of resolution 2231. Therefore, it sia proposed in 2019. has stressed the importance of extending the Key Developments arms embargo beyond October. Background Various conflicts in the Gulf region continue In August, the US circulated to Coun- In addressing the complex security situation to be a source of significant instability for cil members a draft resolution that would in the region, Russia shared a proposal on the the immediate region and to affect interna- extend the existing arms-related restrictions “Collective Security Concept for the Persian tional relations more widely, given the num- indefinitely or “until the Security Council Gulf Region” with members of the Security ber of external stakeholders that are involved. decides otherwise”. On 14 August, the draft Council and the wider UN membership via Regional dynamics in the Gulf are dominated resolution was not adopted, failing to obtain a letter to the Secretary-General in July 2019. by the Sunni-Shi’a divide—manifested pri- nine votes. The and That same month in Moscow, the Russian marily between predominantly Sunni Saudi the US voted in favour, China and Russia Foreign Ministry presented the proposal to Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and against, and the remaining Council members representatives of Arab states, Iran, , predominantly Shi’a Iran—and divisions abstained. On 20 August, the US submitted the five permanent members of the Security within the Arab League, including the crisis a letter to the Council president notifying the Council, the EU, the Arab League, and the with Qatar. Council that it finds Iran to be “in significant BRICS countries (comprising, in addition to The conflict in Yemen, which has impli- non-performance of its commitments under Russia, , , China and South Africa) cated several regional actors, has entered its the JCPOA” and that it is initiating the snap- accredited in Moscow. A month later, Russia sixth year and shows no signs of abating. The back mechanism leading to the re-imposition unveiled more details about the initiative in fighting has exacerbated Yemen’s humanitar- of sanctions in place before the adoption of a press conference at the UN. Russia identi- ian crisis and caused massive displacement of resolution 2231. fied as one of the main priorities the need to the civilian population. Resolution 2231 stipulates that any con- address the issue of terrorism and extremism Hostilities between the US and Iran have cerned party to the JCPOA can notify the in the region by creating a consolidated coun- contributed to the already tense security sit- Council about an issue that it considers a sig- ter-terrorism coalition and mobilising public uation in the region. In May 2018, the US nificant violation of the agreement. The sanc- opinion in the Islamic world to this end. The announced its withdrawal from the Joint Com- tions in place before the adoption of resolu- concept emphasised the importance of com- prehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) aimed at tion 2231 would then resume 30 days after mon adherence to international law, the UN preventing Iran from developing nuclear weap- the notification unless the Council adopts Charter and Security Council resolutions. ons, and it has since continued to impose uni- a resolution that continues the lifting of the Russia stressed that the security system in the lateral sanctions on Iran as a part of its broad- sanctions. All Council members except the region should be universal and comprehen- er strategy of maximum pressure. Under the Dominican Republic have challenged the sive, recognising the interests of all regional agreement, which had been endorsed by reso- legality of the US assertion that it still has a and other parties. It has also emphasised the lution 2231, the Council lifted nuclear-related right to trigger the snapback mechanism, giv- importance of confidence-building measures sanctions on Iran while establishing a stringent en that it withdrew from the JCPOA in May for the process. system to monitor Iran’s nuclear programme. 2018. The US has argued that it still retains As one of the long-term objectives, Russia Formally, Iran has remained in the agreement this right because resolution 2231 lists it as a envisions the creation of an Organization for although it has reduced its nuclear-related party to the JCPOA. The 30-day deadline for Security and Cooperation in the Persian Gulf, commitments and has gradually resumed ura- a snapback procedure passed on 20 Septem- which would be composed of the countries in nium enrichment activities beyond JCPOA- ber, and the US has said that it expects “that the region as well as Russia, China, the US, mandated limits. Iran has continued to empha- all UN member states will fulfil their legal the EU, India, and other interested parties as sise that its actions are reversible and that its obligation and re-impose sanctions on Iran”. observers or associate members. Russia has return to full compliance with the JCPOA is In the second part of 2019 and early this said that the process of establishing such a conditioned on sanctions relief from the agree- year, several security incidents in the Gulf security system should be initiated through ment’s remaining parties. region contributed to rising tensions among

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE PERSIAN GULF Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2231 (20 July 2015) endorsed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on Iran. S/RES/598 (20 July 1987) called for an immediate ceasefire and cessation of military activities between Iran and Iraq and, among other things, called for the Secretary-General to examine measures to enhance security and stability in the region. Security Council Letters S/2020/815 (20 August 2020) contained notification by the US that Iran is in significant non-performance of its commitments under the JCPOA. S/2019/604 (26 July 2019) contained the proposal of the Russian Federation on collective security in the Persian Gulf region and associated background information. S/2018/524 (1 June 2018) was the concept note for the debate on the maintenance of international peace and security: comprehensive review of the situation in the Middle East and North Africa. Security Council Meeting S/PV.8293 (25 June 2018) was the debate on the comprehensive review of the situation in the Middle East and North Africa. Other S/2020/803 (14 August 2020) was the draft resolution to extend the arms embargo on Iran.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 7 Comprehensive Review of the Situation in the Gulf Region some of the key players in the region and the weapons used were of Iranian origin. The number of discussions on the regional internationally. On 3 January, Qassem Solei- Houthi rebel group is at war with the gov- dynamics of conflicts in the Middle East in mani, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary ernment of Yemen, which is supported by recent years. In March 2019, France and Guards’ Quds Force, was killed by a US strike a Saudi Arabia-led coalition. Houthi rebels Germany organised an informal interactive near the Baghdad airport, as was Abu Mahdi also claimed responsibility for the June 2019 dialogue on “Fostering dialogue and coop- al-Muhandis, the deputy of the Iraqi Popu- cruise missile attack on Abha international eration as a response to conflicts and com- lar Mobilisation Forces (PMF). On 8 Janu- airport in Saudi Arabia. In another incident mon challenges in the Middle-East and ary, Iran retaliated by striking a US base in in June 2019, two oil tankers were attacked in North Africa”. The meeting was intended to Iraq, injuring approximately 100 US troops, the Strait of Hormuz. The US and Saudi Ara- explore ways “for the Council to overcome according to media reports. bia blamed the attack on Iran, which denied divisions and tackle collectively regional chal- In September 2019, the Abqaiq and the accusation. lenges, through promoting regional dialogue Khurais oil facilities in Saudi Arabia––which During recent Council meetings on and cooperation, and, in each country of process more than half of Saudi Arabia’s country-specific situations in the Gulf region, the region, strong state institutions that are daily crude oil production, or 5 percent of Russia has drawn attention to resolution 598 respectful of human rights and the rule of the global market—were attacked by drones from 1987 which, among other things, called law”. During its presidency in June 2018, and cruise missiles, causing heavy damage for the Secretary-General to examine mea- Russia organised a debate on a comprehen- to the sites. The Houthi rebel group claimed sures to enhance security and stability in the sive review of the situation in the Middle responsibility for the attacks, but the US and region. This is consistent with its proposal for East and North Africa. The debate focused Saudi Arabia claimed that the attack did not collective security in the Gulf. on broader issues affecting the region as well emanate from the territory of Yemen and that Council members have organised a as the root causes of conflict.

Colombia

Expected Council Action During the reporting period of the Sec- the protection of ex-combatants contained in In October, the Council is expected to retary-General’s report, the mission verified the 2016 agreement. Among other things, the receive a briefing from Special Representa- the killings of 18 former FARC-EP combat- SJP called for the National Commission on tive and head of the UN Verification Mission ants—bringing the number of ex-combatants Security Guarantees, the body charged under in Colombia Carlos Ruiz Massieu on recent killed since the beginning of the year to 49. the peace agreement with developing a pub- developments in Colombia and the Secre- On 28 August, Jorge Iván Ramos, a leader lic policy for dismantling criminal organisa- tary-General’s 90-day report on the mission, of the FARC political party, was killed in tions and their support networks, to increase published on 25 September. the Bolívar department. Ramos is one of the frequency of its meetings and to present The mandate of the Verification Mission the highest-ranking former FARC-EP com- guidelines and an action plan for the policy expires on 25 September 2021. manders to have been killed since the sign- within 60 days (that is, by 30 September). ing of the 2016 Peace Agreement. Members President Iván Duque convened the com- Key Recent Developments of the FARC party have publicly expressed mission on 12 August after a long hiatus, last The situation in Colombia remains diffi- alarm over information indicating that the having done so on 9 January. cult, as violence continues unabated despite guerrilla group Ejército de Liberación Nacio- Violence against communities and social repeated calls for parties to halt aggression nal (ELN) might have been responsible for leaders also remains prevalent. Three mas- in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. Attacks his death. sacres that took place between 10 and 16 against communities, including indigenous On 30 July, the Special Jurisdiction for August in the Nariño and the Valle del Cauca and Afro-Colombian communities, and the Peace (SJP), the judicial component of the departments claimed the lives of 15 people, killing of former Fuerzas Armadas Revolu- transitional justice system established by the most of whom were minors. In addition, a cionarias de Colombia-Ejército del Pueblo 2016 Peace Agreement, expressed concern massacre on 20 September in the munici- (FARC-EP) members, human rights defend- about the constant killings of former combat- pality of Buenos Aires in the Cauca depart- ers, and social leaders continue to complicate ants and issued an order to the Colombian ment resulted in the death of six young peo- the implementation of the 2016 Final Agree- Office of the High Commissioner for Peace, ple. As of 25 September, the Office of the ment for Ending the Conflict and Building a the Office of the Presidential Counsellor for UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Stable and Lasting Peace between the gov- Stabilization and Consolidation, the National (OHCHR) had verified 42 incidents in which ernment of Colombia and the former rebel Protection Unit and the Ministry of Finance, a high number of civilians were killed since group FARC-EP. calling on them to implement mechanisms for the beginning of the year, with an additional

UN DOCUMENTS ON COLOMBIA Security Council Resolution S/RES/2545 (25 September 2020) renewed the mandate of the UN Verification Mission in Colombia until 25 September 2021. Secretary-General’s Report S/2020/943 (25 September 2020) was the 90-day report. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8749 (14 July 2020) was the quarterly meeting on Colombia. Security Council Press Statement SC/14255 (16 July 2020) reiterated the support of Council members for the peace process in Colombia.

8 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2020 Colombia

13 under investigation. The continued vio- handed down by the SJP. The resolution centrality of the needs of communities affect- lence and insecurity have led to large-scale expresses the Council’s readiness to con- ed by violence in all peacebuilding efforts. displacement, with more than 37,000 people sider adding this task to the mandate of the The persistent violence in the country displaced in Colombia since the outset of the Verification Mission, upon the conclusion is a long-standing concern for the Council. year. The Secretary-General has repeatedly of a consultation process coordinated by This issue was addressed in numerous Coun- stressed in his reports that the areas most the Colombian government on the matter. cil press statements calling for the National affected by violence are rural departments The Colombian government had previously Commission on Security Guarantees to make with limited state presence that are charac- requested that the Council approve a role for progress in devising a plan to dismantle crimi- terised by the presence of illicit economies the Verification Mission in monitoring the nal organisations in the country. Some Coun- and illegal armed groups. SJP sentences, but it appears that it needed cil members may therefore wish to inquire Following the death of a citizen in police more time to conduct inter-institutional con- about advances in this regard. custody on 9 September in Bogotá, large- sultations with the SJP and the Verification A future issue for the Council, subject to scale public protests erupted in the capital Mission on the matter. The SJP is reportedly the completion of the consultations coordi- and in the neighbouring city of Soacha. The expected to begin handing down sentences in nated by the Colombian government, will be citizen, Javier Ordoñez, was reportedly arrest- the latter part of 2021. the possible expansion of the mandate of the ed for violating city rules aimed at prevent- Verification Mission to include monitoring of ing the spread of COVID-19. The widespread Human Rights-Related Developments the sentences of the SJP. This will require an circulation of a video showing police officers Addressing the Human Rights Council (HRC) at additional resolution. Ahead of that decision, the opening of its 45th session on 14 September, repeatedly shocking Ordoñez with a stun Council members may request information High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle gun sparked anger over police misconduct Bachelet expressed deep concern about the from the Secretariat on relevant operational and prompted calls for reform. Some of the killings of human rights defenders in Colombia. issues, such as which sanctions will be verified protests turned violent, with OHCHR saying Bachelet said that OHCHR has documented 47 or whether the mission will require specific that “excessive use of force” by security forces killings of human rights defenders in 2020, stress- expertise. Members can request such infor- ing that 44 additional cases are in the process of may have resulted in the deaths of at least 13 mation in the form of a Secretary-General’s verification. Bachelet also addressed the protests people—most of whom were young people- following the death of Ordoñez. She noted that letter, or they could convene a meeting to -and injured more than 300. On 21 Septem- OHCHR is verifying reported cases of violence hear a briefing from a Secretariat official. ber, further protests against the government’s against protesters and has offered “technical response to the previous protests, as well as assistance on democratic and human rights- Council Dynamics based policing of protests”. The 2016 Peace its economic and social policies took place Council members are united in their support Agreement “should be implemented to prevent in Bogotá. . further violence, and human rights violations and for the peace process in Colombia. While they On 25 September, the Security Council abuses”, she said. have generally been deferential towards the adopted resolution 2545, which extended government, some differences in tone have the mandate of the UN Verification Mission emerged since 2019. Some Council mem- in Colombia for another year. The resolution Key Issues and Options bers have been more critical of issues such did not make changes to the core mandate The key issue for the Council remains to sup- as the continued insecurity in rural areas of the mission that was set out in the 2016 port the implementation of the peace agree- and the government’s uneven approach to agreement. The mission’s mandate focuses ment in Colombia. The need to implement implementing various aspects of the agree- on verifying aspects of the agreement related the agreement fully—as opposed to focusing ment. These differences were evident dur- to the political, economic and social reincor- only on selected aspects—continues to be a ing the negotiations on resolution 2545. It poration of the former FARC-EP combat- key factor for Council members. appears that the EU members of the Coun- ants, and personal and collective security Council members may be interested to cil sought to add language on the killings of guarantees which include comprehensive hear from the briefer what should be done ex-combatants, human rights defenders and programmes of security and protection mea- to facilitate the implementation of the three social leaders in reference to challenges in sures for communities and organisations in priorities outlined in the Secretary-General’s the implementation of the peace agreement. conflict-affected areas. 26 March report: protection of social leaders, However, it seems that some Council mem- Resolution 2545 contains new language human rights defenders and former FARC bers preferred not to make additional chang- that recalls that the 2016 agreement envis- combatants; guaranteeing the long-term sus- es to the text of the resolution, and therefore aged a role for the Verification Mission in tainability of the reintegration process of for- the language was not retained. monitoring compliance with the sentences mer FARC-EP combatants; and ensuring the The UK is the penholder on Colombia.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 9 UNDOF (Golan Heights)

Expected Council Action Commander of UNDOF, Brigadier Gen- Forces (IDF) allegedly killed a combatant of In October, the Security Council is expected eral Maureen O’Brien. In her remarks, she the Iranian-sponsored Shi’a militant group to receive a briefing on the activities of the addressed UNDOF’s COVID-19 plan of Hezbollah on the outskirts of Damascus on UN Disengagement Observer Force (UND- action. The purpose of the plan is to limit 20 July. On 3 August, the IDF confirmed that OF) by the Department of Peace Operations the possibility of the virus spreading in the it had killed four people it accused of setting (DPO) on the Secretary-General’s latest mission while at the same time maintaining up explosives along the border fence on the 90-day report on UNDOF, due out in Octo- operational capability. Measures in effect Golan Heights. Retaliating against the Syrian ber, and on the most recent developments. If under the plan include movement restric- government, which Israel blamed, the IDF the measures implemented in response to the tions between the 14 UNDOF positions, attacked targets of the Syrian Armed Forces COVID-19 pandemic are still in place, the staff (national as well as international) mostly in the demilitarised zone. meeting is likely to be held as a videoconfer- working from home, and the identification The new head of Mission and UNDOF ence (VTC). of facilities for isolation and quarantine. She Force Commander, Major General Ishwar UNDOF’s mandate expires on 31 emphasised that there had been no COV- Hamal of , took over at the end of July. December. ID-19 cases in UNDOF to date and that the In a 25 August statement, he expressed his mission was able to continue implementing intention to continue expanding UNDOF’s Key Recent Developments its mandate. Movement restrictions put in footprint but emphasised that this was like- UNDOF was established following the con- place by the Israeli and Syrian governments ly to increase the security risks. Assessing clusion of the 1974 Disengagement of Forces in response to the COVID-19 pandemic had the security situation as generally calm, he Agreement (the 1974 Agreement) between recently been eased. stressed that, nevertheless, the underlying Israel and Syria, which ended the Yom Kippur In her briefing, O’Brien reiterated that situation “remains volatile and uncertain”. war. Its mandate is to maintain the ceasefire UNDOF’s operating environment is “com- between the parties and supervise the disen- plex and sensitive”, including ongoing viola- Key Issues and Options gagement of Israeli and Syrian forces as well tions of the 1974 Agreement by both sides. The numerous violations of the Disengage- as the so-called areas of separation (a demil- Under these circumstances, UNDOF con- ment of Forces Agreement of 1974 are ongo- itarised buffer zone) and limitation (where tinues to develop its plan for a full return to ing issues for the Council. UNDOF’s ability Israeli and Syrian troops and equipment are the Bravo side. She added that a new trend to implement its mandate, including its full restricted) in the Golan Heights. Carrying had emerged: the Islamic State in Iraq and return to the Bravo side, has been a key issue out the mandate entails observing any viola- the Levant (Da’esh/ISIL) had begun claim- since 2014. tions of the 1974 Agreement, reporting them, ing responsibility for attacks perpetrated in and liaising with both sides. UNDOF pro- the Dara’a governorate located in the area of Council Dynamics tests observed violations of the 1974 Agree- limitation in the south of Syria. Some of these There is general agreement within the Coun- ment and calls upon both sides to exercise attacks had taken place within the UNDOF cil that UNDOF’s mandate contributes to restraint. Such violations regularly include area of operations. stability in the region, given the absence of unauthorised personnel and equipment in On 14 June, Israeli Settlements Minister a peace agreement between Israel and Syria. the areas of separation and limitation, the fir- Tzipi Hotovely announced the approval of Both countries still value UNDOF’s presence ing of weapons across the ceasefire line, and a plan to settle 300 families in what will be and want to see the mission’s full return to drones and aircraft crossing the ceasefire line. known as “Trump Heights”. On 25 March the Bravo side. Council members also sup- The mission’s observation role has been lim- 2019, US President Donald Trump signed a port its eventual complete return, mindful ited since its September 2014 relocation from presidential proclamation recognising Israe- of the fact that this would require a continu- the Bravo (Syrian) to the Alpha (Israeli-occu- li sovereignty over the Golan Heights. UN ously favourable security environment, which pied) side because of the armed conflict in spokesman Stéphane Dujarric said on the is also crucial for maintaining the confidence Syria. As of 10 August, UNDOF comprises same day that Secretary-General António of troop-contributing countries. 1,098 personnel. The UN Truce Supervision Guterres considers “that the status of Golan Russia and the US are the co-penhold- Organization (UNTSO) in Observer Group has not changed”. ers on UNDOF. Despite the deep divisions Golan continues to provide UNDOF with The Council renewed UNDOF’s mandate between the co-penholders regarding the Syr- military observers. in a unanimous vote on 29 June in resolu- ia file, both countries are expected to con- During the latest annual meeting with tion 2530. tinue to consider UNDOF as a separate issue, force commanders from UN peacekeep- Attacks between Israel and Syria—and on which they agree. ing operations, on 4 June the Council was therefore violations of the 1974 Agreement— briefed, among others, by the Deputy Force increased in late July after the Israel Defense

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE GOLAN HEIGHTS Security Council Resolution S/RES/2530 (29 June 2020) renewed the mandate of UNDOF until 31 December 2020. Secretary-General’s Report S/2020/506 (8 June 2020) was the latest report on UNDOF. Security Council Letters S/2020/624 (30 June 2020) was from the president of the Security Council containing the draft UNDOF renewal resolution in blue and the votes submitted by all Council members. S/2020/514 (8 June 2020) was from the president of the Security Council containing the briefings given during an open VTC under the agenda item “United Nations Peacekeeping Operations” and statements by Council members.

10 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2020 Haiti

Expected Council Action expired. A new parliament was not in place diplomatic sources, BINUH is fully estab- In October, the Security Council is expected because legislative and local elections had not lished and is working with the UN’s agen- to renew the mandate of the UN Integrated been held in October 2019, as constitution- cies, funds and programmes on the ground. Office in Haiti (BINUH) which expires on ally mandated. In 2019, parliament failed to Despite the limitations on in-person actions 16 October. Prior to the adoption, the Coun- pass an electoral law and approve an election because of COVID-19 safety protocols, cil expects to meet to receive a briefing from budget that would have been the first steps BINUH has been able to make some prog- the Special Representative of the Secretary- for organising the elections, and there was no ress with certain benchmarks, including con- General and head of BINUH, Helen La Lime. political agreement on the new composition tinued good offices by Special Representative of the Provisional Electoral Council. La Lime and the development by an advisory Key Recent Developments On 28 August, Monferrier Dorval, an unit of an inclusive approach to a community Haiti faces extreme political, economic, and influential lawyer and head of the bar associ- violence reduction national strategy, as laid social uncertainty. All crises were initially ation in the Haitian capital of Port-au-Prince, out in resolution 2476. overshadowed in the spring by the appear- was shot and killed in his home. While an The Council last met to discuss BINUH ance of COVID-19, delaying action on many official investigation is underway, there on 19 June, when it held an open videocon- initiatives. The reported COVID-19 cases have been protests calling for his killers to ference (VTC) meeting, followed by a closed are 8,740, with 227 deaths as of 29 Septem- be brought to justice, with many frustrated VTC session. La Lime and Jacques Letang, ber. However, the number of reported cases about the lack of accountability for this and current president of the Haitian Bar Fed- could be inaccurate given the Haitian popu- other murders. Recent weeks have also seen eration (FBH) and a founding member of lation’s widespread fear and distrust of health a rise in gang-related killings and violence. the Human Rights Office in Haiti (BDHH), officials after a devastating cholera outbreak Such crimes were already extremely high in briefed Council members. began in October 2010 (and ultimately tied Haiti, and the increase is making a fragile to the presence of UN peacekeepers). People security situation worse. Protesters say that Human Rights-Related Developments who have been diagnosed with COVID-19 the gangs are silencing critics of Moïse’s gov- On 29 July, Michelle Bachelet, the UN High Com- missioner for Human Rights, said in a statement reportedly face stigmatisation, especially in ernment. In her last public briefing to the that former Haitian paramilitary leader Emmanuel rural areas. The most recent Secretary-Gen- Council on 19 June, La Lime said that the “Toto” Constant must be held accountable for the eral’s report, published on 15 June, said that increase in gang violence in Port-au-Prince “horrendous human rights violations” committed by 31 May there had been 27 confirmed inci- may be tied to an attempt to influence the during the 1990s, particularly for his involvement dents—including attempted lynching, hate results of any future election. Many Haitians in the 1994 Raboteau massacre, a politically-moti- vated mass killing that took place in the Raboteau, speech, attacks against care centres, and are frustrated with what they see as Moïse’s a slum on the outskirts of Gonaïves. In a landmark denial of treatment—directed against peo- unconstitutional use of power, especially moment for justice in Haiti, Constant was con- ple who had tested positive or were suspect- since elections remain unscheduled. victed in absentia in November 2000, having fled ed of testing positive for COVID-19. Even Disagreements persist over how to pro- to the US in 1994. He was deported from the US unrelated paediatric vaccinations are down ceed with constitutional and structural in June 2020 and arrested upon his arrival in Port- au-Prince. On 10 July, the judiciary announced as unfounded rumours circulate of Haitians reforms and establishing an electoral calen- that the file related to his detention could not be being used as test subjects to find a COV- dar. While Haitian officials, supported by located, raising concerns as to the legal basis ID-19 cure. Additionally, with remittances BINUH’s good offices, have held explorato- for Constant’s detention. “Impunity destroys the from abroad making up approximately 36 ry meetings about how to proceed with elec- social fabric of societies and perpetuates mistrust percent of Haiti’s gross domestic product, tions, there has been little progress, which has among communities or towards the State”, said the sharp downturn of economies around increased the frustration felt by Haitians. In Bachelet. She emphasised that perpetrators of such “egregious acts” as Constant “must not be the world may leave many Haitians abroad early September, Moïse took some concrete allowed to escape justice”. without money to send home, worsening an steps, issuing a statement that elections will already dire economic situation. take place in 2021 and that he would soon In 2019, a series of riots against Haitian establish an electoral council. Given the Key Issues and Options President Jovenel Moïse led to a de facto inability of Haiti’s political factions to com- While COVID-19 has not affected Haiti as shutdown of the entire country. Protests promise, however, it seems unlikely that they severely as some had feared, it has laid bare largely abated in early 2020 as lockdown will easily reach consensus. the overall fragility of the country. Council measures against COVID-19 went into BINUH’s mandate, established through members remain particularly frustrated by effect. In recent weeks, however, riots have resolution 2476, includes advising the gov- the lack of progress on constitutional reform resumed. Opposition groups continue to ernment on issues related to promoting and and preparations for elections. Members may call on Moïse to resign and for plans to be strengthening political stability and good gov- want to hear La Lime’s views on what can made for elections. Moïse has been governing ernance, the rule of law, an inclusive inter- be done to generate an improved environ- Haiti through executive decree since 13 Janu- Haitian national dialogue, and protecting ment for negotiations. Council members are ary when the existing parliament’s mandate and promoting human rights. According to also likely to want more information about

UN DOCUMENTS ON HAITI Security Council Resolution S/RES/2476 (25 June 2019) established BINUH. Secretary-General’s Report S/2020/537 (15 June 2020) was the latest Secretary-General’s report covering the activities of BINUH. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.8729 (20 February 2020) was the first briefing on BINUH.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 11 Haiti the increase in gang-perpetrated violence, It is also possible that some member states environment. In the past, St. Vincent and the ongoing training and activities of the Haitian may want to strengthen BINUH’s capacities. Grenadines has also, uniquely, brought up National Police, and the decades-long prob- For example, some may want to increase the issue of reparations for the descendants lem of prison overcrowding. BINUH’s ability to help the Haitian Nation- of former enslaved Haitians. As they mark one year since the establish- al Police remain independent and credible, Resolution 2476, which established ment of BINUH, members may seek updates especially ahead of what is expected to be a BINUH, was adopted with 13 votes in favour on how well the transition has gone from a tense environment once elections are sched- and two abstentions (China and the Domin- long-standing peacekeeping presence to a uled. BINUH could be mandated to provide ican Republic). During the negotiations in smaller special political mission. The last time additional means to strengthen the police June 2019, China wanted a mandate that was the Council members held a closed VTC on with new tools and capacities. less UN-led and more informed by Haiti’s Haiti, they issued press elements afterwards. own priorities. China felt its position was not They may choose to adopt a presidential or Council Dynamics reflected in the resolution, and so abstained. press statement to mark the first anniversary Council members in general supported the Explaining its abstention on the resolution, of BINUH and call on Haitian stakeholders establishment of BINUH instead of a tra- the Dominican Republic stated that it felt the to do more to create an environment condu- ditional peacekeeping mission, with the mandate of the new mission was not robust cive to elections. Dominican Republic (Haiti’s neighbour on enough and that an approach based primar- Given the challenges of COVID-19 and the island of Hispaniola) being the sole voice ily on public security was inadequate. It also the related uncertainties, members may advocating a return to traditional peacekeep- regretted that the resolution did not establish not want to adjust BINUH’s tasks. There ing. Several Council members believe that the a firm electoral timetable. Such concerns may is a recognition that it has been challeng- problems Haiti is experiencing are not of the come up again in October. ing for BINUH to implement all of its man- type that are best addressed by peacekeeping Council members remain divided over the dated tasks with COVID-19 protocols in but are political in nature and better handled best way to support elections in Haiti. Moïse place—for example, trying to support com- by a political mission and Haitians them- has pledged to begin constitutional reform, munity engagement when staying socially selves. In contrast, the Dominican Republic but the process has been slow. Some mem- distanced from the community. An option and St. Vincent and the Grenadines (which bers worry that the constitutional reform pro- for the Council could be largely to roll over is also likely to speak on behalf of the three cess could be used to delay elections. Also, the BINUH’s mandate in a new resolution, per- African Council members) may reiterate COVID-19 pandemic may preclude holding haps with added language calling on BINUH their concerns about the influx of illicit small elections in the near future. Members may to use its good offices to contribute to a con- arms and light weapons into Haiti, fuelling an reiterate their past calls for Haitians to hold a ducive environment to address the increas- increase in gang-related violence that dam- national dialogue to resolve their differences. ingly fraught political space. ages Haiti’s ability to provide a safe electoral The US is the penholder on Haiti.

Syria

Expected Council Action incidents and reports of civilian casualties in assassinations of Syrian officials and kidnap- In October, the Security Council expects to the country’s north-west and south. In north- pings by armed opposition groups. hold its monthly meetings on both the politi- west Syria, there have been ongoing reports There is increasing concern over the rapid cal and humanitarian situations and on the of artillery shelling and aerial bombardment rise of COVID-19 cases in Syria. According use of chemical weapons in Syria. and, according to Lowcock, ceasefire viola- to Syrian Ministry of Health data from 17 tions have increased near the southern con- September, the number of COVID-19 cas- Key Recent Developments tact line of the Idlib “de-escalation area”. In es in Syria still appears to be relatively small: The security situation in much of Syria addition, on 25 August a joint Turkish-Rus- officially, there are 3,654 confirmed cases appears to be relatively stable, according to sian patrol monitoring the M4 security cor- (including 163 fatalities). While this appears Under-Secretary-General for Humanitar- ridor was attacked by unknown assailants, to be a sharp increase over previous report- ian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordina- injuring two Russian soldiers. In southern ing periods, Ramesh Rajasingham, Acting tor Mark Lowcock, who briefed the Security Syria, there continue to be reports of pop- Assistant Secretary-General for Humanitar- Council on 16 September. This assessment, ular unrest, owing to the country’s dete- ian Affairs and Deputy Emergency Relief Lowcock noted, comes despite a series of riorating economic situation, and targeted Coordinator, said on 27 August that reports

UN DOCUMENTS ON SYRIA Security Council Resolution S/RES/2533 (11 July 2020) renewed the authorisation for cross-border into Syria through one border cross- ing (Bab al-Hawa) for 12 months. Secretary-General’s Report S/2020/813 (20 August 2020) was the regular 60-day report on the implementation of humanitarian resolutions by all parties to the conflict in Syria. Security Council Letters S/2020/913 (16 September 2020) was a letter from the president of the Security Council addressed to the Secretary-General and the permanent representatives of Council member states containing the record of the 16 September open VTC meeting on Syria. S/2020/823 (19 August 2020) was a letter from the president of the Security Council addressed to the Secretary-General and the permanent representatives of Council member states containing the record of the 19 August open VTC meeting on Syria.

12 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2020 Syria of increasing numbers of patients arriving in two hours from the now-closed Bab al-Salam these obligations” within the 90-day period health care facilities and growing numbers of crossing point, currently takes over 11 hours. called for in the decision. death notices and burials indicate that “actu- Regarding the political process, Special al cases far exceed official figures”. The -pan Envoy Geir O. Pedersen informed the Coun- Human Rights-Related Developments demic is seriously affecting Syria’s health care cil on 18 September about last month’s meet- Addressing the Human Rights Council (HRC) at the opening of its 45th session on 14 September, capacity and further damaging Syria’s fragile ings of the Constitutional Committee, which High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle economy. During the Council’s 16 Septem- were held in person in Geneva on 24 August Bachelet reiterated that Syria’s people continue ber session, Lowcock noted that Syria lacked and 27-29 August. Despite the two-day hia- to face “multiple and comprehensive crises”. adequate COVID-19 testing capacity and that tus after three members of the Constitution- COVID-19 has highlighted the ravages of a health medical personnel have limited access to per- al Committee tested positive for COVID-19, system battered by “deliberate bombings…and ill-equipped to meet even basic needs”. Noting sonal protective equipment (PPE). As a result, the meetings were held in a generally posi- that the World Food Programme reports that 9.3 a sizeable number of healthcare workers have tive atmosphere, though there were no con- million Syrians face food insecurity, she called contracted the virus, causing medical facili- crete outcomes, with Pedersen informing the for “an end to this inhumanity and conflict”. On ties to close or offer limited services. In the Al Council that “very real differences on sub- 22 September, the HRC was scheduled to con- Hol refugee and internally displaced persons stance even at the quite general level of the sider an updated written report (A/HRC/45/31) from the Independent International Commission camp in north-east Syria, for example, health discussions” persist. Nonetheless, and despite of Inquiry on Syria. facilities had to cease operations entirely due the committee’s inability to agree on an agen- to the lack of PPE, and infected staff. da for a future meeting, the committee co- Meanwhile, Syria’s economic situation chairs remain willing to meet again. Key Issues and Options continues to worsen. Coupled with the Syr- Finally, on 10 September, the Council The 20 August Secretary-General’s report ian pound’s sudden collapse, COVID-19 has met in an open videoconference (VTC) ses- and briefings by Rajasingham and Lowcock exacerbated Syria’s rapid economic dete- sion to discuss the use of chemical weapons over the past two months indicate that the rioration over the summer. According to in Syria. High Representative for Disarma- closure of the Bab al-Salam crossing has OCHA, the unemployment rate increased ment Affairs Izumi Nakamitsu informed had a negative impact on OCHA’s ability to from 42 percent in 2019 to nearly 50 per- Council members that the Syrian authorities deliver humanitarian assistance in a timely cent in August. The current economic situa- have “not yet provided sufficient technical manner. Damage to supply chains from the tion, along with damaged supply chains from information or explanations” regarding the Beirut explosion, concerns about the arrival the Beirut explosion on 4 August, has caused Organization for the Prohibition of Chemi- of winter, and rising food insecurity are likely food prices to rise, increasing food insecurity. cal Weapons (OPCW) Technical Secretariat’s to return the contentious issue of humanitar- According to a World Food Programme food work on two Syrian research centres alleged ian access to the Council’s front burner, forc- security analysis in July, Syria’s national aver- to be sites where chemical weapons have been ing the Council to explore options to improve age price of essential commodities was the developed. Moreover, further inspections the delivery of humanitarian assistance in the “highest rate recorded since the start of the have been delayed because of COVID-19. As north-west. These could include consider- crisis”, having increased 251 percent com- such, the OPCW has been unable to close its ation of re-authorising Bab al-Salam or, in pared to July 2019. work on this matter. The OPCW is awaiting a the event of a rapidly deteriorating situation On the humanitarian situation in Syria’s response to a 20 July letter sent by its Direc- due to COVID-19 in Syria’s north-east or a north-west, the Secretary-General reported tor-General to Syria’s deputy foreign minis- lack of further improvements in cross-line that the challenges to the delivery of human- ter, which followed a 9 July decision, taken delivery, reinstating the Al Yarubiyah border itarian assistance have increased since the by a vote of the OPCW’s Executive Council, crossing between Syria and Iraq. adoption in July of resolution 2533, which condemning Syria’s use of chemical weapons. The Council is also closely following prog- left open only one Council-mandated bor- The Executive Council decision and subse- ress on the work of the Constitutional Com- der crossing, Bab al-Hawa, for the delivery quent OPCW letter are both in reference to mittee. With the Special Envoy’s 18 Septem- of humanitarian assistance into Syria. The the report of its Investigation and Identifica- ber announcement that he hoped another Secretary-General’s 20 August report to the tion Team (IIT), which concluded that “there round of the Constitutional Committee Council argues that, in the context of reso- are reasonable grounds to believe that Syria could be held in person in Geneva in early lution 2533, “available routes are limited, in used chemical weapons in Ltamenah, Syria October, members may seek ways to offer poor condition, frequently congested, and not in March 2017”. The Executive Council’s support to this body. always open” and that “the single remaining decision requested that Syria declare to the On the chemical weapons track, Coun- authorized border crossing, Bab al-Hawa,… OPCW not only where the chemical weap- cil members will be eager to hear whether will need to sustain higher demands”. Since ons used in the attacks were “developed, pro- the OPCW has received any reaction from July, there have been lengthy delays and a duced, stockpiled, and operationally stored the Syrian government to its 20 July letter. significant increase in travel times for vital for delivery” but also “all of the chemical Failing an official response by the 9 October humanitarian assistance: according to OCHA, weapons it currently possesses”. The Tech- deadline, one option for the Council would getting assistance into areas of the northern nical Secretariat, the letter noted, “is ready be to issue a statement reminding the Syrian Aleppo Governate, which previously took to assist the government in the fulfilment of government of its obligation.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 13 Syria

Council Dynamics members have noted that this is only the first humanitarian assistance, there is little agree- The Council remains deeply divided on step in a political process that should lead ment on how these issues should be resolved. Syria. While there appears to be agreement to free and fair elections under UN super- Belgium and Germany are the penholders among Council members that the formation vision. Also, despite growing concern about on humanitarian issues in Syria. and continuing work of the Constitutional the impact of COVID-19, Syria’s economic Committee is a positive development, some collapse, and challenges facing delivery of

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Expected Council Action Hundreds of civilians have been killed or dis- Developments in the DRC and the In October, the Security Council will hold a placed as a result, most from ADF reprisal Wider Great Lakes Region briefing and consultations on the Secretary- attacks. Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi has General’s most recent report on the UN Orga- Ituri has also faced attacks by an armed continued to promote cooperation between nization Stabilization Mission in the Demo- group called the Cooperative for the Devel- the DRC and its neighbours. This regional cratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). opment of Congo (CODECO), whose fight- outreach comes in the context of efforts to Special Representative and head of MONUS- ers are drawn mostly from the Lendu eth- stabilise the eastern DRC. On 7 Septem- CO Leila Zerrougui is expected to brief the nic group and are in conflict with the Hema ber, Tshisekedi’s spokesperson announced Council. At the same meeting, the Chair of tribe over natural resources and land. Some that a regional summit in , North the 1533 Democratic Republic of the Congo CODECO fighters have signed a peace agree- Kivu, would be held in the coming weeks. (DRC) Sanctions Committee, Ambassador ment with the DRC government, but several Presidents Yoweri Museveni (), Paul Abdou Abarry (Niger), will deliver his annual factions are still fighting. In an 11 Septem- Kagame (), Évariste Ndayishimiye briefing to the Council. ber statement released by his spokesperson, () and João Lourenço () have Also, Special Envoy to the Great Lakes the Secretary-General expressed his concern been invited. “This high-impact mini-summit Region Huang Xia is expected to provide his about the ongoing violence in the border will look at three themes—peace and security bi-annual briefing to the Council in October areas of Ituri and provinces. in the region, diplomatic and political rela- on the implementation of the Peace, Security The DRC continues to face various health tions among the states and the revival of eco- and Cooperation Framework (PSC Frame- challenges. Reported cases of COVID-19 had nomic activities in the current context of the work) for the DRC and the region and other reached 10,611 by 29 September, including fight against COVID-19”, said DRC spokes- recent developments in the region. 271 deaths. An ongoing measles epidemic has person Jolino Makelele. The MONUSCO mandate expires on 20 led to nearly 320,000 cases and more than Mass displacement remains a challenge for December. 6,000 deaths, mostly of children, since Janu- the Great Lakes region. According to the Sec- ary 2019. Malaria and cholera are also threats retary-General’s 3 April report on the imple- Key Recent Developments to the population. On 25 June, the World mentation of the PSC Framework, the DRC The security situation continues to be fraught. Health Organization (WHO) declared that continues to host the largest internally dis- On 23 June, Council members issued a press the tenth Congolese Ebola outbreak, which placed population in Africa, with more than statement in which they condemned an started in August 2018, had ended in east- five million displaced individuals, including attack on MONUSCO that occurred on 22 ern DRC. This outbreak killed more than over 940,000 people newly displaced in 2019. June near Beni, which resulted in the death 2,280 people. However, another, unrelated Additionally, as of 29 February, there were of one Indonesian peacekeeper and injuries Ebola outbreak had already been reported over 917,000 refugees from the DRC, most to another. On 8 and 10 September, two in western DRC on 1 June. This outbreak in of them in Uganda. Burundi had a total of attacks attributed to the Allied Democrat- Équateur province has resulted in 104 con- 102,722 internally displaced persons. Giv- ic Forces (ADF) killed 58 people in Ituri firmed Ebola cases and 47 deaths. While this en the widespread movement of people in province. The ADF is an armed group that area of the DRC does not face the security this area, regional cooperation in the face of originated in Uganda, and the DRC’s Forc- challenges of the east, it is difficult to reach; COVID-19 is particularly important. Coun- es armées de la République démocratique some villages are only accessible via water tries immediately initiated measures to con- du Congo (FARDC) have been waging an transportation. tain the spread of the disease in line with the offensive against them since 30 October 2019. WHO recommendations, and those crossing

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE DRC Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2528 (25 June 2020) renewed the DRC sanctions regime until 1 July 2021 and the mandate for the Group of Experts until 1 August 2021. S/RES/2502 (19 December 2019) renewed the mandate of MONUSCO until 20 December 2020. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2020/272 (3 April 2020) was on the implementation of the PSC Framework for the DRC and the Great Lakes Region, covering 1 September 2019 to 15 March 2020. S/2020/214 (18 March 2020) covered the activities of MONUSCO and the situation in the DRC from 27 November 2019 to 16 March 2020. Security Council Letters S/2020/726 (20 July 2020) was from the Secretary-General, appointing six people to the Group of Experts until 1 August 2021. S/2020/598 (29 June 2020) transmitted the statements from the 25 June open videoconference on MONUSCO. Security Council Press Statement SC/14222 (23 June 2020) condemned an attack on MONUSCO that occurred on 22 June near Beni, which resulted in the death of one Indonesian peacekeeper and injured another.

14 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2020 Democratic Republic of the Congo borders are subject to quarantine measures. Human Rights-Related Developments joint strategy articulated by the DRC govern- Still, there are many informal border cross- The Human Rights Council (HRC) is scheduled to ment and the Secretary-General, requested ings where there is little monitoring. consider the comprehensive report of UN High by resolution 2502, outlining a progressive Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bach- The Council most recently discussed the elet on the situation of human rights in the DRC transfer of MONUSCO’s tasks to the Congo- Great Lakes region in an Arria-formula meet- (A/HRC/45/49) in an interactive dialogue on 1 lese authorities in preparation for MONUS- ing on 15 July focusing on the illegal exploi- October during its 45th session. A team of inter- CO’s eventual exit. tation of natural resources in the region. The national experts will present their final report (A/ In the meantime, the Council will contin- meeting was co-hosted by Council members HRC/45/50) on the situation of human rights in ue to monitor the impact of COVID-19 on Kasai, in central DRC, on the same day. Belgium, South Africa and the US, along with In a 28 August statement, Bachelet expressed the DRC as a whole and on MONUSCO’s the DRC. Several briefers from the UN, the deep concern over the death threats directed troop rotations and community engagement private sector and civil society were invited to at the Congolese human rights defender and operations. speak, including Xia. The meeting’s objective Nobel Prize laureate Dr. Denis Mukwege. Bach- was to demonstrate the need for a collabora- elet emphasised that Mukwege is “a true hero— Council Dynamics determined, courageous and extremely effective” tive and holistic approach to ending illegal who has for years been helping severely injured In general, Council members have main- exploitation of natural resources, in particular and traumatised women as well as making a con- tained an optimistic and united view of the gold and coltan. According to the 2 June final sistent effort to encourage others to try to deal DRC’s political situation, with most of their report of the DRC Sanctions Committee’s with the “uncontrolled epidemic of sexual vio- concern focused on violence in the east Group of Experts, illegally exploited gold is lence in the eastern DRC”. Bachelet underscored and the health crises. Council members are that his life seemed to be in serious danger and traded in much higher volume than legally encouraged by the sustained efforts by the expressed hope that President Tshisekedi’s pub- traded gold, resulting in millions of dollars licly-expressed commitment to ensuring Mukwe- region to increase dialogue, even when there in lost taxable income. Several armed groups ge’s security will lead to Mukwege and his team’s are disagreements and in the face of increased continue to finance their military campaigns safety so the “indispensable work they perform violence by armed elements in eastern DRC. through the exploitation of natural resources, […] can be guaranteed”. Council members may want to hear more occupying artisanal mines and selling gold. about what is being done to address the There are ongoing talks about the devel- Sanctions-Related Developments COVID-19 pandemic in the region. opment of a new UN regional strategy On 25 June, the Council unanimously adopt- As the renewal of MONUSCO’s man- on peace and security for the Great Lakes ed resolution 2528, which renewed the DRC date draws closer, however, differences may Region to guide the work of the Special Envoy sanctions regime until 1 July 2021. On 10 deepen. Some members would like to see in support of the implementation of the PSC July, the DRC Sanctions Committee held MONUSCO take concrete steps towards Framework. The framework was signed in an “informal informal” meeting to discuss an exit strategy. Others are concerned about 2013 to help “address the root causes of the Group of Experts’ final report, published the DRC’s stability and have stressed that conflict, put an end to recurring cycles of 2 June, with representatives of Burundi, the any changes in MONUSCO must be car- violence and ensure renewed regional com- DRC, the Republic of Congo, Rwanda, and ried out so as not to create a security vacuum. mitments to respecting State sovereignty” in Uganda. On 4 September, another infor- The US in particular remains highly critical eastern DRC and the Great Lakes Region. mal meeting was held at which the group of the Force Intervention Brigade (FIB)—a The overall political situation between neigh- presented its programme of work after its unit within MONUSCO authorised to use bours has improved, but challenges to long- mandate was renewed in June until 1 August offensive force against armed groups—and term stability in the region remain. 2021. The Secretary-General subsequently wants to make changes to it. However, South In this context, on 7 January 2019, the appointed six people to the Group of Experts, Africa, the main troop-contributing country Secretary-General chaired the first meeting three of whom were new. The next committee to the FIB, continues to support it, and its of the Standing Principals Group, compris- meeting is tentatively scheduled for October. mandate, strongly. ing regional countries that meet regularly Some Council members may bring up the and review progress in implementation of Key Issues and Options current situation involving Mukwege. Earli- the PSC Framework, which recommended MONUSCO’s mandate is due to be renewed er in the year, peacekeepers who had been the development of a strategy to enhance in December, and with that date approach- guarding the Panzi hospital in , run by the UN’s conflict prevention and resolu- ing and continued instability in eastern DRC, Mukwege, were removed after COVID-19’s tion efforts in the region. In June 2019, the Council members may begin considering impact on peacekeeper rotation led to some Secretary-General instructed Xia to lead the whether to change the mandate. Resolution staffing difficulties for MONUSCO. After development of the proposed strategy. Since 2502, the most recent MONUSCO mandate an international outcry, including Bachelet’s then, Xia has been consulting with various renewal, set out several tasks that could pre- statement, the peacekeepers returned to the stakeholders—including UN operations on pare for MONUSCO’s eventual withdrawal, hospital by 11 September. While supporting the ground, civil society, and regional gov- and member states will want to hear if there Mukwege and his work, some critics say that ernments—on the best way forward. Once has been any progress on those tasks, par- properly trained Congolese police would be the strategy is ready, Xia will submit it to the ticularly in the wake of COVID-19. Council better suited for this type of security situation Secretary-General for approval. members will be especially keen to receive the and that, if MONUSCO is meant to exit at

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 15 Democratic Republic of the Congo some point, it cannot keep providing day-to- at its mission to discuss the current status of warning that they will support a gradual exit day security in the DRC. the plan. Given that the Council is beginning of MONUSCO only if it is clear that the gen- Council members are eager to see a com- to discuss an exit strategy for MONUSCO, eral stability provided by the mission over the prehensive strategy for the Great Lakes region Council members are in favour of examin- years will not be compromised. and have repeatedly said that they look for- ing broader ways to consolidate state author- The penholder on the DRC is France. ward to hearing from Xia as soon as possible. ity and create a durable security strategy. Ambassador Abdou Abarry (Niger) chairs In July, Germany hosted an informal meeting Several members have advocated caution, the 1533 DRC Sanctions Committee.

Mali

Expected Council Action led the coup d’état then announced the for- leading to new presidential and parliamentary In October, the Council is expected to hold mation of the National Committee for the elections. At an ECOWAS summit on 7 Sep- a briefing on Mali, followed by consultations, Salvation of the People (CNSP), headed by tember, West African leaders called for the with the Secretary-General’s Special Repre- special forces Colonel Assimi Goïta. appointment of the transition president and sentative and head of the UN Multidimen- The Economic Community of West Afri- new prime minister by 15 September. sional Integrated Stabilization Mission in can States (ECOWAS) and other multilat- ECOWAS discussions with the CNSP Mali (MINUSMA), Mahamat Saleh Annadif. eral organisations and governments quickly have focused on the length of the transi- The mandate of MINUSMA ends on 30 condemned the unfolding developments. tion—the sides appear to be settling on an June 2021. The Mali sanctions measures—a ECOWAS suspended Mali from all decision- 18-month time period—and the role of the travel ban and an assets freeze—expire on 31 making bodies of the regional organisation, military in the transition government. At a August 2021, and the mandate of the Mali as it did after a 2012 coup, and announced 15 September ECOWAS “mini-summit” held Sanctions Committee’s Panel of Experts sanctions, closing all land and air borders with the CNSP leadership, West African lead- expires on 30 September 2021. with Mali and stopping all trade and financial ers insisted that the president and prime min- flows and transactions between its member ister of the transition must be civilians, and Key Recent Developments states and Mali. The AU Peace and Security committed to lifting the sanctions once they Starting in June, protests gripped the capital, Council, following an emergency meeting are appointed. The CNSP also launched a Bamako. A coalition of opposition and civil on 19 August, announced Mali’s suspension series of talks, including a “national consul- society groups known as the June 5 Move- from AU activities until constitutional order tation” conference from 10 to 12 September ment-Rally of Patriotic Forces (M5-RFP), was restored. The Security Council issued a with Mali’s civilian opposition groups. The led by Imam Mahmoud Dicko, demand- press statement that same day, ahead of its M5-RFP rejected the CNSP’s proposal at the ed that President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta own emergency videoconference (VTC) ses- conference’s conclusion, as the plan would resign because of continued insecurity, poor sion, demanding that all detained officials be allow the military to lead a transition period. governance and corruption. A Constitution- released and reiterating Council members’ On 21 September, the CNSP announced al Court ruling in late April that benefitted strong support of ECOWAS’ initiatives and the new interim president, Bah N’Daw. Keita’s ruling party by overturning election mediation efforts. While currently a civilian, N’Daw is a results for 21 seats to the National Assembly Former Nigerian President Goodluck Jon- retired colonel and former defence minis- triggered the demonstrations that took place athan, whom ECOWAS appointed in July as ter under Keïta. Colonel Goïta of the CNSP on 5 and 19 June. Further protests on 11 and its mediator to resolve Mali’s political crisis, was named vice-president. Jonathan led a 12 July turned violent, with at least 11 pro- was in Mali from 22 to 24 August. Jonathan new ECOWAS mission from 23 to 25 Sep- testers killed by security forces. met with Keïta—who reportedly told the tember to Mali, meeting with N’Daw. A On 18 August, soldiers in the Kati bar- ECOWAS mediator that he was not interest- communiqué at the mission’s conclusion racks located about 15 kilometres outside ed in returning to power—and, among others, said that ECOWAS would lift sanctions Bamako mutinied. From Kati, the soldiers with CNSP leaders, who proposed a three- once a civilian prime minister is appointed. entered Bamako and arrested President Keïta year transition for returning the country to On 28 September, N’Daw appointed Moc- and Prime Minister Boubou Cissé at Keita’s constitutional order. On 28 August, ECOW- tar Ouane as transitional prime minister. residence and detained other government AS convened an extraordinary summit by Ouane was foreign minister from 2004 to officials, amid cheering crowds. In a televised VTC, with a briefing by Jonathan. In a dec- 2009, and before that was Mali’s permanent address that night, Keïta announced his resig- laration, West African leaders called for the representative to the UN. nation and the dissolution of the government quick establishment of a transition govern- Meanwhile, Keïta was released from and National Assembly. Military officers who ment to oversee a one-year transition period detention on 27 August, and on 5 September,

UN DOCUMENTS ON MALI Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2541 (31 August 2020) renewed the Mali sanctions regime for one year. S/RES/2531 (29 June 2020) renewed the mandate of MINUSMA until 30 June 2021. Security Council Press Statement SC/14279 (19 August 2020) strongly condemned the mutiny on 18 August and the subsequent arrest of Mali’s president and other government officials.Sanctions Committee Document S/2020/785 (13 August 2020) was the final report of the Mali Panel of Experts.

16 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2020 Mali

it was reported that he had gone to the Unit- “Nothing can justify the persistence of the practice Wagué said that MINUSMA, the French ed Arab Emirates for medical treatment. of slavery”, said Tine in a press release on the regional counter-terrorism force Opera- appeal. Both experts called for “a prompt, trans- tion Barkhane, the Group of Five for the parent, impartial and thorough investigation” into Sanctions-Related Developments the attack. These incidents “illustrate the failure Sahel Joint Force and European Task Force In August, the Council renewed the Mali sanctions of the Malian State to implement its international Takuba “remain partners for the restoration regime, which was established in 2017 to pres- commitments to protect human rights. In some of stability” and that “[a]ll past agreements, sure the government and northern Mali armed cases, traditional chiefs and State authorities groups to implement the 2015 Mali Peace and including the Algiers process signed in 2015, clearly seem to be accomplices of the perpetra- Reconciliation Agreement. Resolution 2541, which will be respected”. tors”. Tine and Obokata called on Mali urgently extended the sanctions for one year, reiterated to adopt a law explicitly criminalising slavery, fol- Council members have been monitoring the Council’s condemnation of the mutiny and its lowing the example of states such as Niger and the ECOWAS mediation process on estab- support for ECOWAS. It added that the Council , and to cooperate with human rights lishing a transition government, and they was ready to “discuss this matter…in light of the organisations to conduct a national campaign potential implications of these recent develop- may endorse any solution that emerges from aimed at abolishing slavery. ments on the implementation of the Agreement”. those negotiations. In a 23 September press release, Tine called on coup leaders to immediately release all former government officials who were detained in August, Council and Wider Dynamics Human Rights-Related Developments saying that “[t]here is no legal basis” for the con- During its mediation efforts in June and Addressing the Human Rights Council (HRC) at tinued detentions. Of the 18 people arrested, at July between the government and M5-RFP, the opening of its 45th session on 14 September, least 13 people are still being held at the Kati mili- ECOWAS was adamant that Keïta should not High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle tary camp, according to the press release. Bachelet underscored that it was “vital” for be forced to step down and that it could not human rights in Mali to be upheld, particularly accept any unconstitutional change in power. during security operations, especially because Key Issues and Options At Council members’ 19 August emergency of the “extreme fragility of the security situation.” The establishment of a transition period for VTC meeting, the Council’s three African Bachelet also emphasised that everyone who restoring constitutional order is a key issue. members, known as the A3, took the posi- had been illegally detained during the coup d’état in August should be released and “all continuing In planning for the transition and future elec- tion that Keïta must return to the presiden- discussions of transitional political arrangements tions, an important issue is accounting for the cy. Other Council members focused on the should have the fundamental rights of all Mali- recurring problems of poor governance and importance of quickly establishing a transi- ans at their core”. She noted her deep concern corruption. Both have led to a lack of pub- tion period, recognising that Keita would not about the economic impact of the sanctions that lic confidence in the authorities and to the be able to return to power given his unpopu- ECOWAS had recently imposed, particularly in a context where “extreme poverty, conflicts and failure to stabilise Mali since the 2012 coup larity in the country. ECOWAS, also recog- insecurity—and climate hazards such as floods d’état despite sustained international atten- nising this, shifted its efforts towards support- and droughts—are creating great hardship and tion and support during this period. ing a civilian-led political transition of limited deteriorating humanitarian conditions”. The risk that terrorist groups in northern duration. Council member Niger, which bor- On 8 September, two UN human rights and central Mali will exploit the political ders Mali, has been profoundly affected by experts (Alioune Tine, the HRC’s independent expert on human rights in Mali, and Tomoya Obo- upheaval in Bamako is an additional con- Mali’s insecurity. Overall, Council members kata, the HRC’s Special Rapporteur on contem- cern. Furthermore, the situation distracts appear to be watching and prepared to sup- porary forms of slavery) called on Mali to “end from efforts in implementing the already- port the outcome of ECOWAS’ negotiations. slavery once and for all” after four men who were slow moving Mali Peace and Reconciliation France is the penholder on Mali. Ambas- born into slavery were beaten to death and an Agreement produced by the Algiers pro- sador José Singer Weisinger (Dominican 80-year-old woman and two other people were hospitalised with severe injuries on 1 September. cess. In announcing the CNSP’s formation, Republic) chairs the 2374 Mali Sanctions its spokesperson Major-Colonel Ismaël Committee.

Western Sahara

Expected Council Action as mandated in resolution 2494. Colin Stew- Key Recent Developments In October, the Council is expected to renew art, the Special Representative for Western The political situation regarding Western the mandate of the UN Mission for the Ref- Sahara and head of MINURSO, is likely to Sahara remains unchanged. The Secretary- erendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO) brief. Western Sahara briefings have usually General has yet to appoint a new Personal which expires on 31 October. Prior to that, it been held in consultations. Envoy since the previous envoy, former Pres- expects to receive a briefing on MINURSO, ident of Germany Horst Köhler, resigned

UN DOCUMENTS ON WESTERN SAHARA Security Council Resolution S/RES/2494 (30 October 2019) renewed MINURSO’s mandate for 12 months, with abstentions by two Council members. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8651 (30 October 2019) included the adoption of resolution 2494 renewing MINURSO’s mandate until 31 October 2020. General Assembly Document A/75/220 (22 July 2020) provides an overview of the major activities undertaken by stakeholders during the Third International Decade for the Eradication of Colonialism.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 17 Western Sahara his post on 22 May 2019 because of health the lead humanitarian agency, supported by self-determination of the people of Western concerns. The personal envoy is mandated to the World Food Programme and UNICEF. Sahara. Today its duties mainly consist of move the political process towards settlement MINURSO is the lead actor responsible for monitoring the ceasefire across the Berm, a of the Western Sahara dispute, and in the year security. UNHCR and the Sahrawi leader- 1,700-mile-long mile-long earthen wall that before resigning, Köhler had successfully led ship launched a COVID-19 working group divides the Moroccan-administered por- several roundtable discussions with , that has established a process to refer poten- tion of Western Sahara from that held by the the Polisario Front, , and Mauritania. tial suspected cases to Tindouf Hospital. Polisario Front. Members will want to hear of (Western Sahara has been the subject of terri- UNHCR is also coordinating the response to any challenges on the ground to MINURSO torial disputes since Spain withdrew in 1976. the refugees’ needs as outlined in the report. or difficulties in implementing its mandate. Initially, both Morocco and Mauritania pre- On 30 October 2019, the Council adopt- There has been no progress towards holding sented claims, but Mauritania renounced its ed resolution 2494, renewing the mandate a referendum: Council members may reflect claim in 1979. The independence movement, of MINURSO for one year. The US, as pen- on this, as 2020 marks 44 years since conflict known as the Polisario Front, represents the holder, opted not to make significant changes began over competing claims to the territory. nomadic inhabitants of the Western Sahara to the text. Thirteen Council members vot- region known as the Sahrawis.) ed in favour, with Russia and South Africa Council and Wider Dynamics Little is publicly known about the ongo- abstaining (as they did during the previous Many member states are frustrated by the ing process to name a new personal envoy, vote, in April 2019). In their statements, absence of a personal envoy and the con- although it seems that some candidates have the two countries stressed their support for comitant lack of political progress. They may been approached. Council members last met MINURSO’s work. Russia indicated its belief, voice these concerns. While many do not want to discuss the situation in Western Sahara in however, that others were trying to use the to be accused of stepping on the Secretary- a closed videoconference on 9 April, and Spe- renewal to “predetermine the direction of General’s prerogative of appointing his own cial Representative Stewart briefed. the negotiation process being conducted personal envoys, Council members are never- On 22 July, the office of Secretary-General under the auspices of the United Nations or theless concerned that nothing has happened António Guterres submitted a report marking to change established approaches affirmed in for over a year. the Third International Decade for the Eradi- previously adopted resolutions”. Explaining Since rejoining the AU in 2017, after a cation of Colonialism to the General Assem- its vote, South Africa listed several aspects of 33-year voluntary absence because the AU’s bly, for consideration during its 75th session. the text it was not fully satisfied with, includ- predecessor body admitted Western Sahara The report noted the Security Council’s ing its preference for a six-month mandate as a member under the name “Sahrawi Arab adoption of resolution 2494, the last MIN- renewal that would have led to more frequent Democratic Republic”, Morocco has been URSO renewal, on 30 October 2019 as well discussion of Western Sahara by the Council stepping up its efforts to maintain its de fac- as the desire to have the parties continue dia- and its belief that MINURSO should have to governance over part of Western Sahara logue despite Köhler’s resignation. The report a formal human rights mandate to conduct and attempt to bring some AU members also said that the Secretary-General contin- “the monitoring of possible human rights vio- around to its way of thinking. Algeria has ues to use good offices to promote progress lations on all sides”. also renewed its involvement on Western on the situation in Western Sahara. Sahara after recently pulling back while it The COVID-19 situation in the area is dif- Human Rights-Related Developments formed a government. ficult to assess because of the disputed nature Addressing the Human Rights Council at the South Africa remains the Polisario’s most opening of its 45th session, High Commissioner of the territory. The World Health Organiza- steadfast ally on the Council. It is likely to for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet said that tion’s online database does not include any her office continued its remote monitoring of the continue to push for more negotiations to numbers from Western Sahara and instead situation in Western Sahara. She said that the last determine the status of Western Sahara, and lists Morocco and Algeria. On 22 April, technical missions took place five years ago and for a focus on human rights in any mandate humanitarian agencies submitted a compre- that such missions were “vital to identify critical renewal. human rights issues on all sides and contribute to hensive report on the needs for COVID-19 The US is the penholder on Western Saha- preventing the escalation of grievances”. prevention and response for refugees from ra. Resolutions are initially discussed among Western Sahara in Tindouf, Algeria. Tin- the Group of Friends, comprising France, douf Camp is the largest Sahrawi refugee Key Issues and Options Russia, the UK, and the US, joined by Spain, camp and is located in the desert just inside Council members may focus on the con- the former colonial power and a country that Algeria’s border. Its population numbers tinued lack of a personal envoy and, in turn, provides much logistical and humanitarian around 150,000, though there is no exact the lack of any political progress on one of support to the Sahrawi in Tindouf. Contro- count, and has been home to Sahrawi refu- the Council’s longest-running issues. MIN- versially for some, there is no representation gees since 1975. In Tindouf, the UN High URSO was established in 1991 with the key from the African continent among the Group Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) is objective of facilitating a referendum for the of Friends.

18 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2020 Yemen

Expected Council Action on the way, and then to dash those hopes by A mechanism to exchange up to 15,000 In October, the Council is expected to hold simply failing to fulfil the promise”. prisoners was part of the December 2018 its monthly briefing on Yemen with Special On 17 September, ahead of the high-level Stockholm Agreement, which also included Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths, Under- General Assembly week, Germany, Kuwait, a ceasefire for Hodeidah governorate and a Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs , and the UK hosted a ministerial- statement of understanding on Taiz. Since Mark Lowcock, and General Abhijit Guha, level videoconference on advancing the politi- the agreement, however, only periodic releas- who heads the UN Mission to support the cal process with China, France, Russia, the es totalling several hundred people have Hodeidah Agreement (UNMHA). The man- US and the EU High Representative for For- occurred. On 27 September, Griffiths and the date of UNMHA expires on 15 July 2021. eign Affairs and Security Policy. Secretary- ICRC announced that the parties had agreed General António Guterres and Special Envoy to immediately release 1,081 prisoners. Key Recent Developments Griffiths briefed. A joint communiqué called Despite negotiations that have been ongoing on the government and the Houthis to swiftly Human Rights-Related Developments for six months, Griffiths has still not been reach agreement on the UN peace propos- On 29 September, during its 45th session, the Human Rights Council (HRC) considered the able to conclude an agreement between the als and reiterated the need for an inclusive report (A/HRC/45/6) of the Group of Eminent Yemeni government, backed by a Saudi Ara- political solution. It stressed that the parties International and Regional Experts on Yemen bia-led military coalition, and the Houthi reb- should quickly conclude a comprehensive (GEE), followed by an interactive dialogue. This el group on a joint declaration for a nation- transitional agreement to end the war, estab- was the Group of Experts’ third report, titled wide ceasefire, humanitarian and economic lish a transitional period during which power Yemen: A Pandemic of Impunity in a Tortured Land, covering the period from July 2019 to June. measures, and the resumption of peace talks. is shared among diverse political and social Besides the report, GEE will also release a con- On the ground, the Houthis continued a mili- components, and, at the end of this period, ference room paper, a longer and more detailed tary offensive against the government strong- create a new government on the basis of cred- document, describing its investigations and find- hold of Marib, while the UN raised the alarm ible national elections. ings. Melissa Parke, a member of GEE, said on about the risk of famine returning to Yemen. The statement further voiced great con- 9 September during a videoconference with journalists in Geneva that Yemen has been “rav- On 4 September, Lowcock sent a white cern about the continuing Houthi offensive to aged in ways that should shock the conscience of paper to Council members on food securi- take Marib, which it said threatens to derail humanity”, and stressed that the group had found ty risks in the Democratic Republic of the the UN peace process. To avoid famine, the “reasonable grounds to believe that the parties Congo, Yemen, north-east Nigeria, and South group of states called on all donors to dis- to the conflict have committed and continue to Sudan, in accordance with resolution 2417, burse existing pledges immediately and to commit serious violations of international human which requested the Secretary-General to consider making further contributions. It also rights and international humanitarian law, some of which may amount to war crimes”. warn the Council about “the risk of conflict- urged Yemen’s partners to consider measures induced famine and wide-spread insecurity”. to strengthen the economy, including regu- The white paper says the risk of famine in lar foreign-exchange injections into the Cen- Key Issues and Options Yemen is “slowly returning…. Similar con- tral Bank and increasing critical commercial Obtaining an agreement for a nation-wide ditions are emerging today, worsening key imports through all of Yemen’s ports. ceasefire and a restart of the political process indicators beyond the levels seen in 2018”. It During the General Assembly’s high-lev- remains a critical issue. The Marib offensive attributes the re-emerging threat in Yemen to el week, Sweden and the EU also hosted a risks undermining negotiations, and the fall intensified fighting (now on 42 fronts com- ministerial-level event on the humanitarian of the governorate would be a major blow to pared to 30 two years ago), Yemen’s deterio- situation in Yemen. Appeals to all parties to the government as it has become its politi- rating economy, and the detrimental effect of the conflict to respect international humani- cal and economic stronghold during the the conflict on locust control efforts. A major tarian law and increase donor support were war. The battle also threatens to worsen the gap in humanitarian funding this year has fur- made by Lowcock, David Beasley of the humanitarian situation for the hundreds of ther increased the famine threat. World Food Programme and Jan Egeland of thousands of displaced persons hosted in the At the Council’s monthly briefing on the Norwegian Refugee Council. Ahead of governorate and other residents. Sustaining Yemen on 15 September, Lowcock reiterat- the meeting, Saudi Arabia announced that and further implementing the November ed that “the spectre of famine has returned”. it would disburse $204 million of the $500 2019 Riyadh Agreement between the gov- He was particularly poignant in calling out million it had pledged at a June donor con- ernment and the separatist Southern Tran- Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and ference for Yemen that it had hosted but had sitional Council (STC) is another important Kuwait for the underfunding of relief efforts, still not disbursed. Kuwait announced a $20 issue, reflecting the complexity of resolving saying that the three countries had “so far million contribution. Yemen’s war. given nothing to this year’s UN [humanitar- A new round of prisoner-exchange Regarding the humanitarian situation, ian response] plan”. Lowcock added, “It is talks started on 18 September in Geneva Yemen’s deteriorating economy—notably particularly reprehensible to promise money, between the government and Houthis, co- the near-depletion of central bank reserves, which gives people hope that help may be chaired by the ICRC and the Special Envoy. decline in the value of the Yemeni rial and

UN DOCUMENTS ON YEMEN Security Council Resolution S/RES/2534 (14 July 2020) extended the mandate of UNMHA until 15 July 2021. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.8757 (15 September 2020) was a briefing on Yemen.Security Council Letter S/2020/940 (23 September 2020) was a letter from Saudi Arabia on the hazardous situation of the FSO Safer oil tanker. Other Joint Communiqué on the Conflict in Yemen, High-Level Ministerial Meeting, 17 September 2020.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 19 Yemen a decrease in remittances from the Yemeni submitted a revised plan for the deployment and resumption of a political process. They diaspora—have exacerbated already dire of a UN technical team to assess the Safer further share concerns about the humanitar- conditions, as has the COVID-19 pandemic. and make initial repairs. It was awaiting the ian situation and the FSO Safer. is Access restrictions are also contributing to the Houthis’ response. the Arab member on the Council that tradi- crisis. These include the government prohibi- If agreement is reached on the joint dec- tionally champions positions of the Saudi-led tion on fuel imports through Hodeidah and laration, the Council may adopt a resolution coalition supporting the Yemeni government. Ras Issa ports after the Houthis expropriated to welcome or endorse the deal. After more The US, which is seeking to maintain restric- funds from a joint account of fuel revenues than six months of negotiations for such a tions on Iranian arms transfers that are set this past spring and the Houthis’ suspension deal, however, members may wish to consider to expire in October, often points to what it in September of UN humanitarian flights to new approaches to break the impasse in the perceives as Iran’s destabilising role in Yemen. Sana’a, which they said was due to the fuel political process. The September VTC meeting of the P5 plus shortage. Despite the new pledges, distribu- Regarding the FSO Safer, the Council Germany, Kuwait, Sweden, and the EU High tion of the promised funds remains critical may try to maintain pressure on the Houthis Representative had similar participants and to relief efforts, including to stave off the risk to enable access for the UN technical team. agenda to the meeting organised in Septem- of famine. In future statements, Council members could ber 2019 during the General Assembly’s The threat posed by the FSO Safer oil recall the Houthis’ previous commitments to high-level week to consider ways to push for- tanker is an equally urgent issue. A serious allow UN access, point out any further fail- ward the political process. oil spill would, among other consequences, ures to abide by their agreements and recall The UK is the penholder on Yemen. It destroy the Red Sea ecosystem for decades, the potentially devastating effects of a spill or recently appointed a Special Envoy for Fam- prevent use of the critical port of Hodeidah explosion on the environment, the livelihoods ine Prevention and Humanitarian Affairs as for up to six months, and destroy livelihoods of Yemenis and the humanitarian situation. part of fulfilling its commitments to com- for 1.6 million Yemenis on the country’s bat growing food insecurity. Ambassador I. west coast in addition to affecting millions Council Dynamics Rhonda King (Saint Vincent and the Gren- of others in the region. In his 15 Septem- Council members appear aligned in their sup- adines) chairs the 2140 Yemen Sanctions ber briefing, Lowcock said that the UN had port of the Special Envoy, desiring a ceasefire Committee.

Central African Republic

Expected Council Action Key Recent Developments the Agreement”. In response to the violence, In October, the Council will discuss the On 28 July, the Security Council convened an MINUSCA has undertaken a series of ongo- Secretary-General’s latest report on the in-person meeting in the ECOSOC chamber ing operations in recent months, including UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabiliza- and adopted resolution 2536, which renewed one launched on 17 May in the town of Ndé- tion Mission in the Central African Repub- the CAR sanctions regime until 31 July 2021 lé in the north of the country, to help stabi- lic (MINUSCA), which is due by 9 October. and the mandate of the Panel of Experts lise the situation, and another, launched in The Council will be briefed by Mankeur Ndi- assisting the CAR Sanctions Committee until coordination with the Central African armed aye, the UN Secretary-General’s Special Rep- 31 August 2021. In contrast to the renewal of forces (FACA) on 17 June, to end violence resentative for the the sanctions regime in January, which saw against civilians in north-west CAR com- (CAR) and head of MINUSCA, and Matias Russia and China abstain, resolution 2536 mitted by the 3R (Retour, Réclamation et Bertino Matondo, AU Special Representative was adopted unanimously. Réhabilitation) armed group. and head of the AU Office in the Central Afri- The adoption of resolution 2536 and Political tensions have also increased can Republic. October’s meeting come in the context of a because of the presidential, legislative and The mandate of MINUSCA expires on wave of violent clashes since April in CAR’s local elections scheduled for later this year 15 November. The CAR sanctions regime north-east and north-west. According to and early 2021, and there are concerns that expires on 31 July 2021 and the mandate the Panel of Experts’ 8 July report, “despite electoral dynamics might undermine the of the Panel of Experts supporting the 2127 their nominal commitment to implement implementation of the peace agreement. Late CAR Sanctions Committee expires on 31 the Political Agreement for Peace and Rec- last year and in early 2020, CAR analysts August 2021. onciliation in the [CAR]…, armed groups noted that the return of former presidents continue to impede the restoration of State François Bozizé and Michel Djotodia to the authority and engaged in many violations of CAR could have a destabilising effect on the

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE CAR Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2536 (28 July 2020) renewed the CAR sanctions regime until 31 July 2021 and the mandate of the Panel of Experts assisting the CAR Sanctions Committee until 31 August 2021. S/RES/2499 (15 November 2019) extended the mandate of MINUSCA and the authorisation to use all means to provide operational support to MINUSCA until 15 November 2020. Secretary-General’s Report S/2020/545 (16 June 2020) was a report on MINUSCA. Security Council Letters S/2020/572 (24 June 2020) was from the president of the Security Council addressed to the Secretary-General and the permanent representatives of Council member states containing the record of the 22 June open VTC meeting on MINUSCA.

20 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2020 Central African Republic

already fragile political climate in the country. provided by humanitarian organisations. An MINUSCA, the UN country team and other inter- The 25 July announcement by Bozizé that estimated 659,000 internally displaced per- national partners for their services and support, he would run in the upcoming presidential sons are considered at high risk of contract- particularly considering the constraints due to COVID-19. elections may exacerbate tensions; Bozizé ing COVID-19, given the overcrowded con- was listed under Security Council sanctions ditions many are living in. in 2014 for “engaging in or providing support Key Issues and Options for acts that undermine the peace, stability or Sanctions-Related Developments Monitoring the implementation of the CAR security of CAR”. On 19 September, author- On 5 August, the 2127 CAR Sanctions Committee peace agreement and ensuring that credible approved the addition of Bi Sidi Souleman, presi- ities in France arrested the former head of and transparent elections are held remain dent of the 3R group, to its sanctions list. Accord- the presidential guard under Bozizé, Eric ing to the listing, the 3R has killed, tortured, raped key priorities for the Council. Monitoring Bagale, for committing “acts of torture” and and displaced civilians and “engaged in arms traf- the process leading up to the elections will “preparing for war crimes” during Bozizé’s ficking, illegal taxation activities, and warfare with also be a priority. In light of recent violence presidency. In addition, on 5 September, other militias since its creation in 2015”. Souleman and given concern around the return of both is alleged to have personally participated in some Djotodia announced in Bangui that he had Bozizé and Djotodia, members may consider of these acts. “definitively” returned to CAR; after his initial adopting a statement urging continued calm return to CAR in January, he subsequently and a cessation of all violence and calling travelled outside the country. Though he has Human Rights-Related Developments for full implementation of the peace agree- not announced that he would compete in the During its 45th session, the Human Rights Coun- ment. Such a product would demonstrate cil (HRC) was scheduled to consider in an interac- upcoming elections, he said on 5 September the Council’s unified support for MINUSCA tive dialogue on 2 October the written report of that “nothing prevents” him from being a the independent expert on the situation of human and its work to facilitate the electoral process. presidential candidate. rights in the CAR, Yao Agbetse (A/HRC/45/54). Finally, according to OCHA, CAR’s In a 27 August statement, Agbetse called on all Council and Wider Dynamics humanitarian situation remains “worrisome” sides to ensure that upcoming elections can There is consensus on the Council in sup- proceed smoothly and for the support of the and the COVID-19 pandemic has wors- port of the Political Agreement for Peace international community. “For the elections to be ened the country’s socioeconomic situation. peaceful, they must be preceded by a ceasefire and Reconciliation and around the need for Approximately 2.6 million people require and cooperation among all sides”, Agbetse said, peaceful elections later this year. Despite evi- humanitarian assistance in CAR and 2.36 emphasising that after years of instability, it is dent differences regarding the CAR sanctions million people are considered food-insecure. essential for Central Africans to “strengthen the regime during negotiations in January, the foundations for a return to peace, reconciliation, While the overall number of those infected unanimous adoption of resolution 2536 in and respect for human rights”. Agbetse provided with the coronavirus remains relatively low a set of recommendations in his statement, call- July and the largely uncontentious negotia- (as of 9 September, there were officially ing in particular for armed groups to lay down tions leading to its adoption suggest that the 4,738 cases), CAR suffers from limited test- arms in line with their commitment to do so under Council may have found a more unified way ing capacity, potentially masking the actual the 2019 Peace Agreement and to respect the to approach the CAR. figures. According to the World Health Orga- results of the election. He also stressed the need France is the penholder on the CAR, and for the “reactivation of the existing inclusive dia- nization, CAR is “one of the least prepared logue space…in which the government, the oppo- Ambassador Abdou Abarry (Niger) chairs the countries to face the COVID-19 outbreak”. sition and civil society organizations can agree on 2127 CAR Sanctions Committee. Seventy percent of CAR’s health services are essential issues”. Agbetse expressed gratitude to

Kosovo

Expected Council Action Key Recent Developments involving Serbian and Kosovar delegations. In October, the Council is expected to hold On 4 September, President Aleksandar Vučić The agreements are primarily focused on its second regular briefing this year on the sit- of and Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti improving economic ties between Serbia and uation in Kosovo. The Special Representative of Kosovo signed agreements on the nor- Kosovo and reaffirm some previously agreed and head of the UN Interim Administration malisation of economic relations between commitments, such as establishing railway Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), Zahir Tanin, Serbia and Kosovo. The signing took place and highway links between Belgrade and will brief on recent developments and the lat- at the White House in the presence of US Pristina. They also include commitments for est report by the Secretary-General. President Donald Trump, following two days a one-year moratorium on Kosovo’s seeking of talks facilitated by the US administration membership in international organisations

UN DOCUMENTS ON KOSOVO Security Council Resolution S/RES/1244 (10 June 1999) authorised NATO to secure and enforce the withdrawal of Federal Republic of Yugoslavia forces from Kosovo and established UNMIK. Secretary-General’s Report S/2020/255 (31 March 2020) was on Kosovo. Security Council Meeting Record S/2020/339 (28 April 2020) was the transcript of the videoconference briefing on Kosovo. Other S/2019/120 (7 February 2019) was a note by the Council president that said the Council would hold briefings on Kosovo in June and October 2019 and that as of 2020, briefings would be held twice a year (in April and October).

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 21 Kosovo and on Serbia’s campaign to persuade coun- On 24 June, the Specialist Prosecutor’s authorities in Kosovo to adhere to its com- tries that have recognised Kosovo to with- Office filed an indictment with the Kosovo mitments to the court. draw their recognition. Furthermore, the Specialist Chambers (KSC) charging Koso- Some members of the Council, the P3 agreements contained provisions on rela- vo’s president, Hashim Thaçi, among oth- in particular, have continued to question tions with Israel: Kosovo and Israel have ers, with a series of crimes against humanity the UNMIK reporting cycle and called for recognised each other, and Serbia will move and war crimes. Thaçi was questioned by the downsizing the mission in light of the rela- its embassy to Jerusalem. Both Serbia and prosecutors after he travelled to The Hague tive overall stability on the ground. While the Kosovo committed to designating Hezbollah voluntarily on 13 July. He has denied all Council reached an agreement on a less fre- as a terrorist organisation. accusations. On 24 September, the Specialist quent reporting cycle in February 2018, it In their subsequent remarks to the media, Prosecutor’s Office arrested former KLA -offi could also request the Secretary-General to Vučić and Hoti provided varying interpreta- cer Salih Mustafa based on an arrest warrant conduct a strategic review of UNMIK to con- tions of the agreements. Vučić emphasised issued by the KSC. At press time, no details sider the effectiveness of the mission. that Serbia did not sign a trilateral agree- had been provided on the specific charges ment but only a bilateral agreement with the against Mustafa. The Specialist Prosecutor’s Council and Wider Dynamics US, and that it does not include recognition Office is an independent office for the inves- Kosovo remains a low-intensity issue for the of a third party, alluding to Kosovo. On the tigation and prosecution of the crimes within Council and is closely followed mainly by other hand, Hoti portrayed the agreement as the jurisdiction of the KSC. Formally estab- members with a specific interest in the region. one of the steps toward final agreement and lished in 2016 by the Kosovo Assembly, KSC This is due in part to the pre-eminence of mutual recognition. is a special court based in The Hague that regional organisations, including the EU, The high-level EU-facilitated talks operates under Kosovo’s law and is staffed NATO and the Organization for Security and between Belgrade and Pristina resumed in by international judges, with the mission of Co-operation in Europe in matters related to July after an impasse lasting 20 months. Vučić investigating alleged war crimes committed Kosovo. and Hoti agreed to resume the dialogue at by the Kosovo Liberation Army during the Nevertheless, deep divisions among per- a 10 July summit-level meeting with French conflict in Kosovo in the 1990s. Funding manent members have continued to charac- President Emmanuel Macron and German for the KSC is provided by the EU, Canada, terise the Council’s consideration of Kosovo. Chancellor Angela Merkel. , , Turkey, and the US. France, the UK and the US recognise Koso- On 7 September, Josep Borrell, the EU vo’s independence and tend to be support- High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Key Issues and Options ive of its government; China and Russia do Security Policy, hosted a meeting with Vučić Maintaining stability in Kosovo remains the not recognise its independence and strongly and Hoti in Brussels. Before the meeting, Council’s primary concern. The Council will support Serbia’s position. Among the elected Vučić and Hoti issued a joint statement in continue to monitor diplomatic efforts to members, and Norway have recog- which they confirmed that they would con- advance the dialogue between Belgrade and nised Kosovo. tinue working on the EU-facilitated dialogue Pristina and any efforts towards reaching a The US has been the most vocal propo- between Belgrade and Pristina and that they final agreement on Kosovo. nent of a drawdown and eventual withdraw- attach the highest priority to EU integration. While the EU-facilitated dialogue between al of UNMIK, citing the level of stability in They acknowledged that the agreements Belgrade and Pristina has resumed, an issue Kosovo. The US has also asserted that the signed in Washington on 4 September could for the Council is the lack of implementa- mission is overstaffed and over-resourced contribute to reaching “a comprehensive, tion of existing agreements, especially on the for its limited responsibilities and that these legally binding agreement on normalization establishment of the Association/Commu- resources could be put to better use in more of relations”. nity of Serb Municipalities in Serb-majority pressing situations on the Council’s agenda. The same day, European Commission northern Kosovo. A related issue is wheth- The issue of modifying UNMIK’s man- spokesman Peter Stano voiced concern over er UNMIK could play a role in facilitating date and its possible drawdown is likely to Serbia’s commitment to move its embassy to implementation of the existing agreements. become more prominent in the upcoming Jerusalem, given that it contradicts the EU’s The Council will follow closely the devel- period, given the growing number of Coun- common position on the status of Jerusa- opments related to the KSC. An issue for cil members that support this position. Alone lem. In response, Serbian Foreign Minister the Council will be Kosovo’s cooperation among missions regularly discussed by the Ivica Dačić said that the decision to move with the KSC, given that some political Council, UNMIK’s mandate, established in the embassy will be discussed by the govern- actors in Kosovo have publicly criticised 1999, is open-ended. Any attempt to change it ment and will depend on a range of factors, its work. Should Kosovo limit its coop- would require a new resolution, which Russia including the future development of relations eration with the KSC, the Council could would strongly oppose and most likely block. with Israel. consider issuing a statement calling on the

22 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2020 Sudan/South Sudan

Human Rights-Related Developments Expected Council Action with the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agree- During its 45th session, the Human Rights Coun- In October, the Council expects to receive ment was needed, no further progress was cil (HRC) considered an oral update from the a briefing on the Secretary-General’s report reported. Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan, on the implementation of the mandate of the On 15 June, the Secretary-General with the participation of representatives of the AU, UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNIS- appointed Major General Kefyalew Amde in an enhanced interactive dialogue on 23 Sep- tember. On 1 October, the HRC was expected to FA), as requested in resolution 2519. The Tessema of as UNISFA’s Force consider, also in an enhanced interactive dialogue, likely briefers are Under-Secretary-General Commander. As of this writing, however, no the written report of the independent expert on for Peace Operations Jean-Pierre Lacroix and progress has been made on the appointment the situation of human rights in the Sudan, Aris- Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Parfait of a civilian deputy head of mission “to fur- tide Nononsi (A/HRC/45/53). Onanga-Anyanga. ther facilitate liaison between and engage- The mandate of UNISFA and the mis- ment with the parties”, as requested by reso- Key Issues and Options sion’s support to the Joint Border Verifica- lution 2469 of 14 May 2019. According to the Council members have been following closely tion and Monitoring Mechanism (JBVMM), Secretary-General’s 16 April report, discus- political developments in both South Sudan which monitors the demilitarised zone along sions are still ongoing with Sudan and South and Sudan, especially given Sudan’s ongoing the border between Sudan and South Sudan, Sudan on the appointment. The request for political transition. Despite COVID-19, there both expire on 15 November. such an appointment was consistent with the has been recent—albeit minimal—engage- views of the Secretary-General, who said in a ment between the two countries on Abyei. Key Recent Developments 20 August 2018 letter that the mission “has One option would be to encourage Sudan The overall security situation in Abyei, the lacked the civilian tools to keep the parties and South Sudan to intensify their engage- disputed territory along the Sudan-South engaged in the advancement of their dialogue ment to advance towards a political resolu- Sudan border, remains volatile. Speaking to politically” to resolve the final status of Abyei. tion of the border issues. the Security Council on 28 April, Lacroix Given this concern, the Secretary-General Another key issue is whether to retain noted that this volatility persists because recommended the appointment of a civil- UNISFA’s support of the JBVMM. Resolu- of ongoing intercommunal tensions and an ian deputy head of mission to function as the tion 2519 noted that the current extension increase in the presence of armed groups. main focal point on political matters. of support to the JBVMM was its final such Several incidents took place over the sum- On 14 May, the Council adopted resolu- extension unless the parties take a number mer that appear to have further exacerbat- tion 2519, which extended UNISFA’s man- of specific measures outlined in resolution ed the security situation, including the 15 date and the mission’s support to the JBVMM 2497. One option is to retain the support for July killing of a UNISFA contractor, who until 15 November. In addition, the resolu- an additional six months, as previously rec- was shot while travelling in a vehicle near tion maintained the current authorised troop ommended by the Secretary-General, while a UNISFA logistics base in the village of ceiling of 3,550 and police ceiling of 640, another would be to retain support for a Murta. The circumstances of the shooting both set out in resolution 2497 in November shorter period as a means of putting pres- remain unclear. In addition, Sudanese press 2019. It also decided to allow postponement sure on the parties to intensify efforts to fully reported on 9 August that five people had in the withdrawal of the 295 troops above the implement the JBVMM and also to reach a been killed during an attack, allegedly by authorised troop ceiling until the COVID- political solution. the South Sudanese army, in a Dinka vil- 19-related suspension of troop repatriations, lage in the Gouli area of Abyei. According which the Secretary-General announced in Council Dynamics to press reports, approximately 70 South March, is lifted. As in previous years, the Council’s focus on Sudanese soldiers attacked the village after The Council was last briefed on Abyei on the situation in Abyei remains limited, largely a dispute with the village guards, killing 28 April by Lacroix and Onanga-Anyanga. In eclipsed by its engagement on South Sudan three villagers, while two of the attackers addition to briefing the Council on Abyei’s and Sudan. However, the upcoming renewal were also apparently killed. volatile security situation, Lacroix told the of the mission’s mandate and the expiration On 26 August, Sudanese and South Suda- Council that the COVID-19 pandemic, then of UNISFA’s support for the JBVMM in nese officials met in Juba to discuss the situ- in its early stages, would create “unprece- November present an opportunity for Coun- ation in Abyei. The meeting, organised by dented challenges” for UNISFA as well as for cil members to direct attention to the issue. local Abyei business leaders, was attended by Sudan and South Sudan. Onanga-Anyanga During negotiations in May on resolution the chairman of the Sudanese government’s also highlighted the multiple challenges that 2519, there was consensus on a rollover of negotiating team and member of the transi- the two countries faced, including the pan- the mission’s mandate, especially given the tional Sovereign Council, Mohamed Ham- demic, falling oil prices and a locust invasion, situation around COVID-19. dan Dagalo, and South Sudanese Vice-Pres- all of which would have “a negative effect on The US is the penholder on Abyei. ident Hussein Abdelbagi. While both sides the peace processes in the two countries”. agreed that a peaceful solution in compliance

UN SECURITY COUNCIL DOCUMENTS ON SUDAN/SOUTH SUDAN Security Council Resolution S/RES/2519 (14 May 2020) renewed the mandate of UNISFA until 15 November 2020. Secretary-General’s Report S/2020/308 (16 April 2020) was the Secretary-General’s most recent report on UNISFA. Security Council Meeting Records S/2020/351 (30 April 2020) was a letter from the president of the Security Council addressed to the Secretary-General and the permanent representatives of Council member states containing the record of the 28 April open videoconference meeting on UNISFA.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 23 The Middle East, including the Palestinian Question

Expected Council Action in the Middle East, including the Palestinian million deficit in its core progamme budget In October, the Security Council will hold question”. Mladenov said that the Secretary- for the remainder of 2020. Mladenov further the quarterly debate on “The Situation in the General had welcomed the normalisation of expressed encouragement at recent Fatah- Middle East, including the Palestinian Ques- relations between Israel and the UAE. He Hamas efforts to promote Palestinian unity— tion”. Special Coordinator for the Middle added that he hoped that the suspension of including their call “for long-awaited national East Peace Process Nickolay Mladenov is Israeli plans to annex parts of the West Bank presidential and legislative elections”—and expected to brief. would provide an opportunity for the par- maintained that “[e]lections and legitimate ties to re-engage in meaningful negotiations. democratic institutions are critical to unit- Key Recent Developments Mladenov reiterated that annexation would ing Gaza and the West Bank under a single Through a 13 August agreement by Isra- violate international law and strike a deadly national authority vital to upholding the pros- el, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and blow to the chances of a two-state solution. pect of a negotiated two-State solution.” the US, Israel and the UAE established the On 4 September, the UN Relief and full normalisation of diplomatic relations in Works Agency for Palestinian Refugees in Human Rights-Related Developments exchange for an Israeli commitment to forgo the Near East (UNRWA) launched a $94.6 Addressing the Human Rights Council (HRC) at the opening of its 45th session on 14 September, plans to annex parts of the West Bank. Isra- million appeal to address the impact of High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle el had previously indicated its intention to COVID-19 on Palestinian refugees in the Bachelet said the “escalating tragedy in Gaza is annex parts of the West Bank “as early as 1 region through the end of 2020. The press of particular concern”. Bachelet spoke about the July”. On 11 September, Bahrain, Israel and release announcing the appeal said it had “a land and sea blockade, which has been imposed the US issued a joint statement declaring the special focus on health, cash assistance and by Israel for 13 years and has brought Gaza’s main economic and commercial activities to a normalisation of relations between Bahrain education” while expressing concern that complete stop. As a result, she said, “more than and Israel. Bahrain and the UAE formalised “COVID-19 cases have worryingly surged 38 percent of Gazans live in poverty; 50 percent their establishment of full diplomatic rela- in the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria, with are unemployed; and more than 90 percent of the tions with Israel at a 15 September signing more recent increases in and the water from aquifers is undrinkable”. An August ceremony at the White House. Among the first instances of local transmission in Gaza decision banning the entry of fuel into Gaza has led to greater suffering and humanitarian - bur Arab countries, Israel also has full diplomatic recorded in late August”. dens. Bachelet stressed that Gaza is currently relations with and Jordan, established The demolition of homes in the occupied experiencing sharply rising cases of COVID-19 in 1979 and 1994, respectively. Palestinian territories continues. According with the health sector facing total collapse Hostilities continue to be reported to a 22 August article in the Israeli media unless the blockade is lifted. She underscored between Gaza militants and Israel. During outlet Haaretz, 89 residential units had that the blockade “contravenes international law” the signing ceremony on 15 September, two been demolished in East Jerusalem in 2020; and “has conclusively failed to deliver security or peace for Israelis and Palestinians”. rockets were fired from the Gaza Strip into in 2019, 104 homes were destroyed in that southern Israel. One landed in Ashdod, a part of the city. In his 18 June report on the coastal town west of Jerusalem, injuring two implementation of resolution 2334, the Sec- Key Issues and Options people, while the other rocket was reportedly retary-General expressed deep concern at A key issue for the Council is what role it intercepted. On the following day, 13 mis- “the continued demolitions and seizures of can play in resurrecting the peace process siles were fired into Israel, with five report- Palestinian structures in the occupied West between Israel and the Palestinians, given the edly intercepted by Israel’s defence system; Bank, including East Jerusalem”. He urged widespread rejection of the US peace propos- the Israeli military responded with air strikes Israel to “cease demolitions and seizures of al earlier this year, including by the Palestin- on Hamas targets in Gaza. Palestinian property and to allow Palestinians ians. One option that has been proposed by The Palestinian Authority has been criti- in the occupied West Bank, including East a number of Council members—and could cal of the agreements between Israel and the Jerusalem, to develop their communities, in be further explored this month—has been UAE and Bahrain. Following the signing line with its obligations under international to revitalise the Middle East Quartet, which ceremony, Palestinian President Mahmoud humanitarian law”. consists of the EU, Russia, the UN, and the Abbas issued a statement declaring that there Council members held a briefing, followed US. A related option would be to expand would not be peace in the region “as long by consultations, on “The Situation in the the Quartet as a forum for negotiations by as the and Israel as an occu- Middle East, including the Palestinian Ques- allowing other states in the region to partici- pying entity do not recognize the rights of tion” on 29 September. During the briefing, pate in a mediating capacity. Council mem- the Palestinian people to establish their state Special Coordinator Mladenov expressed bers could also discuss the proposal made by within the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem concern about rising rates of COVID-19 in President Abbas during his 25 September as its capital, and resolving the refugee issue”. the occupied Palestinian territories and Israel, statement to the UN General Assembly for On 25 August, Mladenov briefed Council as well as the high incidence of demolitions an international peace conference in early members in an open videoconference (VTC), of Palestinian structures in the West Bank this 2021 that would include the involvement of followed by a closed VTC, on “The situation year. He also noted that UNRWA has a $200 “all concerned parties”.

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE MIDDLE EAST Security Council Resolution S/RES/2334 (23 December 2016) condemned Israeli settlements and was adopted with 14 votes in favour and a US abstention. Secretary-General’s Report S/2020/555 (18 June 2020) was on the implementation of resolution 2334. Security Council LetterS/2020/837 (25 August 2020) was a compilation of briefings and statements from the meeting on “The Situation in the Middle East, including the Palestinian Question”.

24 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2020 The Middle East, including the Palestinian Question

Given the ongoing humanitarian needs Bank. Several Council members have empha- agreed mutually by the parties. facing Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, sised that this commitment should be per- While the difficult humanitarian situation and elsewhere—which are being exacer- manent: that is, plans for annexation should in Gaza has been a feature of these meet- bated by the coronavirus—members may be halted for good and not just suspended ings for several years, there are growing con- choose to appeal for enhanced financial sup- temporarily. Other widespread views in the cerns in the Council about the economic and port for UNRWA. Council—and among the UN membership humanitarian impact of the spread of COV- more broadly—are that settlement construc- ID-19 in Gaza and the West Bank. Council and Wider Dynamics tion is a violation of international law, that The US consistently emphasises the threat As part of the agreement to normalise rela- occupation should end, and that the parties posed by Iran to peace and security in the tions with the UAE, Israel committed to sus- should pursue a two-state solution, based on Middle East and may do so again in October. pending its plans to annex parts of the West the pre-June 1967 borders, with land swaps

Somalia

Expected Council Action place on 9 June, when its chair, then Ambas- recent events. On 16 August, Al-Shabaab In October, the Chair of the 751 Somalia sador Marc Pecsteen de Buytswerve, briefed orchestrated an attack on a popular beach Sanctions Committee, Ambassador Philippe Council members in an open VTC on the hotel in Mogadishu. It began with a car bomb Kridelka (Belgium), will deliver his 120-day committee’s activities from 28 February to exploding, after which terrorists rushed into briefing to the Council, most likely in an open 9 June. His briefing emphasised that armed the hotel, resulting in a four-hour siege. Six- videoconference (VTC). Elements of the terrorist group Al-Shabaab remains a potent teen people were killed and 18 were injured, sanctions regime will expire on 15 November, threat to regional peace and security and is while Somali special forces rescued more than including the partial lifting of some sanctions, responsible for many attacks against civilians 200. On 7 September, at least three Somali and the mandate of the 751 Somalia Sanc- in violation of international humanitarian soldiers were killed, and several individu- tions Committee’s Panel of Experts expires law. He highlighted Al-Shabaab’s increased als were injured, including one US service on 15 December. use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) member, in a car bomb blast claimed by Al- in Somalia and their devastating effect, as Shabaab that targeted a military base outside Key Recent Developments relayed to the committee in a briefing by the Kismayo. On 8 September, Al-Shabaab forc- The 751 Somalia Sanctions Committee is the UN Service on 29 April. es attacked the government-controlled city of oldest sanctions committee currently in oper- As of the June briefing, the committee was Bal’ad, in Middle Shabelle region. Al-Sha- ation. The Council imposed a comprehensive considering six recommendations from the baab reportedly suffered serious casualties. arms embargo on Somalia on 23 January panel’s mid-term update pertaining to threats Committee members continue to meet 1992 with the adoption of resolution 733 and to peace and security in Somalia, particularly under the “informal informal” format via established a sanctions committee through Al-Shabaab’s military and financial capabili- VTC (closed in this case), due to COVID-19 resolution 751 adopted on 24 April 1992. ties; the implementation of the arms embargo protocols put in place by the UN. On 14 Sep- Since then, the regime has undergone many through further improvements in weapons tember, the committee held a VTC to discuss updates and changes. While the authorisation and ammunition management; and inter- the final Panel of Experts report. The panel’s of the sanctions regime remains open-ended, national humanitarian law issues, including report focused particularly on the financing there are a few elements that must be renewed strengthening the protection of civilians. In of Al-Shabaab, finding that a large part of the each year. On 15 November 2019, the Coun- more positive news, there seems to have been group’s income comes from a significant and cil adopted resolution 2498, renewing for one an improvement in the relationship between sophisticated taxation scheme. The taxation year the partial lifting of the arms embargo on the Panel of Experts and the government of scheme has allowed Al-Shabaab to create a Somali security forces, the authorisation for Somalia, which in 2019 refused to allow the parallel state in much of Somalia, and Al- maritime interdiction to enforce the embargo panel to conduct visits to the country. While Shabaab has been more than able to finance on illicit arms imports and charcoal exports, members of the panel have also been unable its operations. The report seemed to make the and humanitarian exemptions to the regime. to visit Somalia this year, that has been due to point that Al-Shabaab must be defeated not The resolution also renewed the mandate of COVID-19, and meanwhile, the panel seems only militarily but also financially. the Somalia Sanctions Committee’s Panel of to have had extensive video calls with stake- Experts until 15 December 2020. holders, including the government. Human Rights-Related Developments The latest periodic briefing by the chair of The committee’s concern about increased Addressing the Human Rights Council (HRC) at the opening of its 45th session on 14 September, the 751 Somalia Sanctions Committee took deadly attacks by Al-Shabaab is reflected in

UN DOCUMENTS ON SOMALIA Security Council Resolution S/RES/2498 (15 November 2019) extended various elements of the Somalia sanctions regime until 15 November 2020. Security Council Letter S/2020/529 (11 June 2020) was a copy of the 9 June briefing provided by Ambassador Marc Pecsteen de Buytswerve (Belgium) in his capacity as Chair of the 751 Somalia Sanctions Committee.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 25 Somalia

High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle decrease Al-Shabaab’s ability to make IEDs. after the vote, China and Russia reiterated Bachelet said she was alarmed by an increase in This could also mean an increased focus on their belief that the relationship between Dji- reports of sexual violence against women, girls implementation of the IED components ban bouti and Eritrea is a bilateral one that does and boys. She called on the Somali authorities to swiftly adopt the Sexual Offenses Bill that was in resolution 2498. not merit mention in a Council resolution. approved by the Somali Cabinet two years ago. The October meeting will mark the first (Until 2018, sanctions on Eritrea, related to She previously made this call in a 10 August state- time the new Permanent Representative of its dispute with , were part of the ment when she also emphasised that the draft Belgium, Philippe Kridelka, will address Somalia sanctions regime.) China and Rusia Sexual Intercourse Related Crimes Law “risks the Council in his capacity as chair of the furthermore did not approve of the inclusion legitimizing child marriage” and should be pre- vented from becoming law, as it would also rep- committee. of some human rights language, saying that resent “a serious step backwards for the rights of the Human Rights Council would be a more victims of sexual violence in Somalia”. Council Dynamics appropriate venue. Equatorial also The HRC was also scheduled to consider dur- This meeting may provide a preview of where said that issues unrelated to Somalia should ing its 45th session the report of the independent things stand one month before the renewal not be covered in the resolution. Such differ- expert on the situation of human rights in Somalia, Isha Dyfan (A/HRC/45/52). of the partial lifting of parts of the sanctions ences are likely to remain in 2020. There may mandate and the renewals of the authorisa- also be some differences on the exemptions tion for maritime interdiction to enforce the in the arms embargo for the Somalia national Key Issues and Options embargo on illicit arms imports and charcoal forces in order to combat Al-Shabaab. Council members are extremely concerned exports and of the Panel of Experts’ mandate. The UK is the penholder on Somalia. about the upsurge in Al-Shabaab attacks. During the adoption of resolution 2498 on 15 Ambassador Philippe Kridelka (Belgium) They may consider whether to revise the par- November 2019, China, chairs the 751 Somalia Sanctions Committee. tial lifting of some sanctions in November to and Russia abstained. In their statements

Lebanon

Expected Council Action political, economic and humanitarian chal- Force rescued a -bound boat off the In October, the Council is expected to receive lenges in the country. UN agencies estimate coast of Lebanon with 37 individuals on the semi-annual briefing on the Secretary- that the explosion directly affected 300,000 board, including 12 children. The boat was General’s report on the implementation of individuals, with the need for shelter pos- lost at sea for more than a week, resulting resolution 1559, due on 21 October. Adopted ing a major issue: many affected households in the deaths of several passengers, including in 2004, resolution 1559 called for the disar- were displaced, while others remain in par- children and one woman. mament of all militias and the extension of tially destroyed dwellings. UNICEF warned Anti-government protests—which had government control over all Lebanese terri- that the displacement and overcrowding been widespread before the explosion— tory. Under‑Secretary‑General for Political increase the risk of the spread of the COV- intensified following the blast as citizens and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo ID-19 pandemic and heightens the vulner- expressed frustration over endemic corrup- is expected to brief the Council. ability of children and women to sexual and tion and government mismanagement, which The mandate of the UN Interim Force gender-based violence. As of 29 September, are viewed by many as a contributing factor in Lebanon (UNIFIL) expires on 31 August Lebanon reported 37,272 cases of the virus— in the disaster. On 10 August, the govern- 2021. more than a six-fold increase compared to ment of Prime Minister Hassan Diab stepped the reported 5,000 cases before the explo- down. Diab came to power in January after Key Recent Developments sion. Additionally, the UN Refugee Agency Prime Minister Saad Hariri resigned follow- Lebanon finds itself in an increasingly difficult (UNHCR) warned that the financial crisis ing widespread protests. and volatile situation as the country contends in Lebanon and the COVID-19 pandemic, International interlocutors have stressed to with political turmoil and a humanitarian along with the impacts of the Beirut blast, Lebanese ruling elites that a new government catastrophe in the aftermath of the 4 August have led an increasing number of people to must be formed urgently, and reforms adopt- explosion in the Beirut port. The blast killed undertake perilous sea journeys to Cyprus. ed swiftly to address the country’s economic more than 190 people, injured at least 6,000, UNHCR noted that between July and 14 and humanitarian situations in order to unlock and damaged or destroyed large swaths of the September, there had been 21 journeys international financial aid. French President city, including medical facilities. The cause of undertaken to Cyprus, of mostly Syrians but Emmanuel Macron visited Lebanon twice the blast is still under investigation. also of Lebanese and migrant workers. On since the blast, on 6 August and 1 Septem- The Beirut blast compounded existing 14 September, the UNIFIL Maritime Task ber. Macron reportedly presented Lebanese

UN DOCUMENTS ON LEBANON Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2539 (28 August 2020) renewed UNIFIL’s mandate until 31 August 2021. S/RES/1701 (11 August 2006) called for a cessation of hostilities between the militant group Hezbollah and Israel. S/RES/1559 (2 September 2004) called for the disarmament of all militias and the extension of government control over all Lebanese territory. Secretary-General’s Report S/2020/329 (24 April 2020) was on the implementation of resolution 1559.

26 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2020 Lebanon officials with a programme outlining political On 28 August the Security Council adopt- new government in Lebanon and the swift and economic reforms, including timelines for ed resolution 2539, which renewed UNIFIL’s implementation of reforms necessary to avert their implementation. Paris also called for the mandate for another year. While the resolu- a humanitarian crisis. formation of a new government by 15 Sep- tion did not make substantial changes to the tember and parliamentary elections within six mission’s mandate, it reduced the force’s Council Dynamics to 12 months, while threatening to withhold troop ceiling from 15,000—as set out by res- There is a strong consensus among Coun- international aid if no progress was made. olution 1701—to 13,000. As of 25 August, cil members in their support for Lebanon’s On 31 August, Lebanese President the force stood at 10,328 peacekeepers, and sovereignty, territorial integrity and secu- Michel Aoun designated Mustafa Adib as the as such the resolution does not entail a reduc- rity. While most Council members are con- country’s new prime minister. The appoint- tion in troop presence. The resolution further cerned about the maintenance of arms out- ment of Adib—a Sunni Lebanese-French requested the Secretary-General to elaborate side the control of the Lebanese state, there is citizen who served as Lebanon’s ambassa- an implementation plan for the recommen- a difference in tone on the issue of Hezbollah, dor to Germany—received broad support dations contained in his 1 June assessment the most heavily armed militia in the country. from most major political groups. Adib report on the continued relevance of UNI- The US has advocated for stronger action announced his resignation on 26 September, FIL’s resources within 60 days of the adop- by UNIFIL to enforce the arms embargo citing his inability to form a government. It tion of the resolution (that is, by 30 October). and to tackle the maintenance of arms by the appears that disagreements arose between militant group. This position was repeated the different governmental factions over the Key Issues and Options most recently in the closed videoconference appointment of a new minister of finance, The growing concern for the Council is how consultations on resolution 1559, held on 13 as Lebanon’s dominant Shi’ite Muslim to address the political and economic insta- May. However, it appears that Russia takes factions—Hezbollah and the Amal Move- bility in Lebanon and prevent further deterio- the view that Council discussions should ment—reportedly insisted that the minister ration of the already fragile security situation not focus on Hezbollah, since the group is a of finance be a Shi’a Muslim. Speaking at a in the country. member of the Lebanese government. news conference on 27 September, Macron One of the long-standing issues for the The differences of view regarding UNI- urged Lebanese political elites to implement Council is the significant amount of weap- FIL’s role were also evident during the dif- his reform programme within four to six onry held by Hezbollah and other non-state ficult negotiations on resolution 2539. Most weeks, while criticising them for refusing to actors in contravention of resolutions 1559 Council members said UNIFIL should engage in good faith to form a government. and 1701. In his most recent report on the maintain its current mandate and troop On 18 August, the Special Tribunal for implementation of resolution 1559, the Sec- strength, especially considering the desta- Lebanon—a UN-backed tribunal established retary-General noted that “no specific steps bilised situation created by the Beirut blast. in 2010 to hold trials for those accused of have been taken” to address the disarming The US, however, asked for language aimed involvement in the February 2005 attack and disbanding of Lebanese militias since the at facilitating UNIFIL’s access in its area of that killed former Lebanese Prime Minister adoption of resolution 1559 in 2004. operations, as well as for the reduction in its Rafik Hariri and 21 others—handed down The deteriorating humanitarian situation troop ceiling. The US has repeatedly main- its verdict after ten years of investigation and in the aftermath of the Beirut blast, includ- tained that steps should be taken to either the trials in absentia of four defendants, who ing the increasing spread of COVID-19, is empower UNIFIL or realign the mission’s were described as “supporters of Hezbollah”. also a matter of concern. Council members configuration and resources to achievable Salim Ayyash was convicted of participating may consider asking OCHA for a briefing on tasks. The reduction of the troop ceiling to in a conspiracy to carry out the attack. The how the international community can further 13,000—an apparent concession to the US— three remaining defendants were acquit- assist vulnerable groups in Lebanon. is the first such reduction since the adoption ted due to lack of evidence. Many in Leba- As the Council has not issued a state- of resolution 1701 in 2006. non were disappointed with the verdict, as ment on Lebanon since February 2019, it France is the penholder on Lebanon. they felt it failed to address the issue of who may consider a presidential or a press state- ordered the killing of Hariri. ment to call for the urgent formation of a

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 27 Women, Peace and Security

Expected Council Action agenda as a thematic issue but rather, as rec- strengthening of the role of the IEG co-chairs In October, the Security Council is expected ognised in resolution 2242, should be an inte- and sexual and reproductive health rights. to hold its annual open debate on women, gral part of the entirety of the Council’s work. On 4 November 2019, the Council was peace and security. The Secretary-General’s This is reflected in the IEG’s 2016 guidelines, briefed by Deputy Secretary-General Amina annual report will be released ahead of the which suggest that not only member states’ Mohammed and Permanent Observer of the meeting. Russia, as president of the Council women, peace and security experts attend AU to the UN Fatima Kyari Mohammed in October, is expected to circulate a concept IEG meetings but also the respective country on a 21-26 October joint UN-AU solidarity note ahead of the debate. The debate may experts, as well. In the past year, the IEG has mission to the Horn of Africa. This was the also be held at a high level. Secretary-General held meetings on Colombia, Iraq, Mali, South fourth Council meeting of its kind. In August António Guterres, Executive Director of UN Sudan, Sudan, Syria and on responding to the 2017 the Council was briefed after a joint Women Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, a female coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. UN-AU trip to the Democratic Republic of peacekeeper, and a civil society representa- Because of the IEG’s status as an experts’ the Congo and Nigeria, as they were in July tive may brief. If the measures implemented group, those meetings are not reflected on 2018 after a joint UN-AU visit to the Sahel in response to the COVID-19 pandemic are the Council’s subsidiary bodies programme region and in July 2019 following a solidarity still in place late in the month, the meeting is of work, and there is no obligation for Council mission to Afghanistan. likely to be held as an open videoconference members to attend. China and Russia rarely On 16 July, Council members held the (VTC). A resolution is a possible outcome. attend. UN Women acts as the secretariat of annual open debate on conflict-related sex- the IEG. A summary of every IEG meeting is ual violence in open VTC format at minis- Key Recent Developments sent as an annex to a letter from the co-chairs terial level. It was organised by Germany as This year marks the 20th anniversary of res- and the penholder to the Secretary-General president of the Council in collaboration with olution 1325, the Council’s first resolution and published as a document of the Council. the Dominican Republic. Briefers included on women, peace and security, adopted on On 29 October 2019, the Council held the Special Representative on Sexual Vio- 31 October 2000. Resolution 1325 acknowl- its annual open debate on women, peace lence in Conflict, Pramila Patten; Angelina edged that armed conflict has a differential and security. South Africa, as president of Jolie, in her capacity as a Special Envoy of and disproportionate impact on women. The the Council that month, proposed that the the UNHCR; and Nadia Carine Therese aspect of protection against sexual violence focus of the debate be “Towards the success- Fornel-Poutou, Executive President of the was further strengthened with resolution ful implementation of the women, peace and Association des Femmes Juristes de Cen- 1888 of 30 September 2009, which estab- security agenda: moving from commitments trafrique. Considering the difficult negotia- lished the position of Special Representative to accomplishments in preparation for the tions of the Council’s last two resolutions on on Sexual Violence in Conflict. Resolution commemoration of the twentieth anniversary women, peace and security, the president did 2242, adopted on 13 October 2015, among of Security Council resolution 1325 (2000)”. not seek a formal outcome of the meeting. other issues addressed the Council’s work- Briefers included UN Secretary-General The year before, resolution 2467 of 23 April ing methods in relation to women, peace and António Guterres; UN Women Executive 2019 on conflict-related sexual violence was security. The Council expressed its intention Director Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka; AU adopted with China and Russia abstaining. to convene an Informal Experts Group (IEG) Special Envoy for Women, Peace and Secu- During the negotiations, China, Russia and on women, peace and security and also to rity Bineta Diop; Lina Ekomo of FEMWISE the US all threatened to use their veto. invite civil society briefers representing wom- (the Network of African Women in Conflict Resolution 2242 called on the Secretary- en’s organisations to country-specific and Prevention and Mediation); and Alaa Salah, General “to initiate, in collaboration with thematic meetings. a civil society activist and community leader Member States, a revised strategy, within This year’s co-chairs of the IEG, the from Sudan. Resolution 2493 on the imple- existing resources, to double the numbers of Dominican Republic and Germany, are work- mentation of the women, peace and security women in military and police contingents of ing towards a greater recognition that issues agenda was unanimously adopted following UN peacekeeping operations over the next affecting women are peace and security issues. difficult negotiations. Controversial issues five years”. The Secretary-General’s “Uni- They argue that women, peace and secu- during the negotiations were the protec- formed Gender Parity Strategy 2018-2028” rity should not be isolated on the Council’s tion of women human rights defenders, the was presented to the UN membership in

UN DOCUMENTS ON WOMEN, PEACE AND SECURITY Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2538 (28 August 2020) was on women in peacekeeping operations. S/RES/2493 (29 October 2019) was on the implementation of the women, peace and security agenda. S/RES/2467 (23 April 2019) was a resolution on sexual violence in conflict, passed with 13 votes in favour and two abstentions (China and Russia). S/RES/2242 (13 October 2015) established the Informal Experts Group (IEG) on women, peace and security. S/RES/1888 (30 September 2009) established the position of Special Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict.S/RES/1325 (31 October 2000) was the first resolution on women, peace and security. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2020/487 (3 June 2020) was the latest annual report on conflict-related sexual violence. S/2019/800 (9 October 2019) was the latest annual report on women, peace and security. Security Council Letters S/2020/899 (25 August 2020) was the summary of the IEG’s 29 July meeting on Colombia. S/2020/856 (28 August 2020) was a letter from the president of the Security Council containing the draft resolution in blue about women in peacekeeping operations, the votes submitted by all Council members, and explanations of vote by Indonesia and Russia. S/2020/727 (21 July 2020) was a letter from the president of the Security Council containing the briefings provided and statements given by states during the 17 July open VTC on conflict-related sexual violence.S/2020/574 (23 June 2020) was the summary of the IEG’s 27 May meeting on Mali. S/2020/439 (27 May 2020) was the summary of the IEG’s 29 April meeting on responding to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. S/2020/283 (6 April 2020) was the summary of the IEG’s 26 February meeting on Syria. S/2020/282 (6 April 2020) was the summary of the IEG’s 5 March meeting on Iraq. S/2016/1106 (22 December 2016) were the guidelines for the IEG. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.8657 (4 November 2019) was a briefing on a UN-AU joint solidarity mission with a focus on women, peace and security. S/PV.8649 (29 October 2019) was the first part of the annual open debate on women, peace and security.S/PV.8649 (Resumption 1) (29 October 2019) was the second part of the annual open debate on women, peace and security. S/PV.8649 (Resumption 2) (4 November 2019) was the third and last part of the annual open debate on women, peace and security.

28 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2020 Women, Peace and Security Security Council Report Staff Karin Landgren Executive Director

January 2019. On 28 August, the Council Council Dynamics Joanna Weschler unanimously adopted resolution 2538 on Including language from the women, peace Deputy Executive Director women in peacekeeping operations. Initi- and security agenda as a cross-cutting issue Shamala Kandiah Thompson ated by Indonesia, it outlined several ways in country-specific and thematic resolutions Deputy Executive Director member states can promote the increased remains challenging. Paul Romita Senior Policy Analyst participation of women in peacekeeping The majority of Council members con- and encouraged greater cooperation among sider the normative framework of the agenda Alina Entelis Policy Analyst states, the UN, and regional and sub-regional to be strong enough, arguing that the focus Teale Harold organisations as well as networking opportu- should be on the implementation of the agen- Policy Analyst nities among female peacekeepers. da rather than attempts to adopt more Coun- Lindiwe Knutson cil decisions. Policy Analyst Key Issues and Options The UK is the penholder on women, Robert Schupp An ongoing issue for the Council is how to fur- peace and security issues in general, and the Policy Analyst ther the implementation of the women, peace US is the penholder on conflict-related sex- Vladimir Sesar and security agenda. Areas of implementation ual violence. Germany and the Dominican Policy Analyst could include better integration of relevant lan- Republic are the co-chairs of the IEG. Those Vanessa Tiede guage in country-specific and thematic Coun- two elected members will leave the Council Policy Analyst cil outcomes, inviting the Special Representa- on 31 December; the IEG will therefore be Benjamin Villanti tive on Sexual Violence in Conflict to brief the chaired by two new non-permanent members Policy Analyst Council, and continuing to invite female civil starting 1 January 2021. Robbin VanNewkirk society representatives to brief the Council. Website Manager Audrey Waysse Operations Manager

Maritza Lopez Administrative Assistant

Anna Haven Research Assistant

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