October 2020 Monthly Forecast 1 Overview Overview 2 In Hindsight: The Annual Report to the General Assembly - Russia holds the presidency in October. Much to that, Council members will meet on the mis- Can It Be Improved? of the Council’s work is likely to remain remote sion’s work and developments in Western Sahara. 3 Status Update since our due to COVID-19 restrictions, although an effort Several other African issues are on the pro- September Forecast is underway to hold several meetings on UN gramme. Meetings are anticipated on: 5 Libya premises. • the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in 7 Comprehensive Review Russia will hold a debate focusing on a com- the Democratic Republic of the Congo; of the Situation in the prehensive review of the peace and security situa- • the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabili- Gulf Region tion in the Persian Gulf region under the agenda zation Mission in Mali; 8 Colombia item “Maintenance of international peace and • the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabili- security”. This signature event appears to have zation Mission in the Central African Repub- 10 UNDOF (Golan Heights) grown out of a concept for the region that Rus- lic; and 11 Haiti sia proposed in 2019. Secretary-General António • the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei. 12 Syria Guterres is a possible briefer. Briefings are planned on the work of the 1533 14 Democratic Republic of Two open debates are also anticipated late in DRC Sanctions Committee and the 751 Somalia the Congo the month. The quarterly open debate on “The Sanctions Committee. 16 Mali situation in the Middle East, including the Pales- Special Envoy for the Great Lakes Region tinian Question” is expected to feature a briefing Huang Xia is also scheduled to provide his bian- 17 Western Sahara by Special Coordinator for the Middle East Peace nual briefing to the Council in October on the 19 Yemen Process Nickolay Mladenov. There will also be an implementation of the Peace, Security and Coop- 20 Central African open debate on Women, Peace and Security; pos- eration Framework for the DRC and the region. Republic sible briefers include the Secretary-General, UN In addition to the open debate on the Persian 21 Kosovo Women Executive Director Phumzile Mlambo- Gulf region and the quarterly open debate on the 23 Sudan/South Sudan Ngucka, a female peacekeeper, and a civil soci- Middle East, there will be several other meetings ety representative. The event will mark the 20th on Middle East topics. 24 The Middle East, including the anniversary of the adoption of resolution 1325, The usual monthly meetings on Yemen and on Palestinian Question the Council’s first on the topic of women, peace the political, humanitarian, and chemical weap- and security. A resolution is a possible outcome. ons tracks in Syria are anticipated. The political 25 Somalia Three adoptions are currently scheduled for and humanitarian briefings on Syria are likely to 26 Lebanon October. The Council expects to adopt a reso- be combined. Meetings on the UN Disengage- 28 Women, Peace and lution renewing the authorisation for member ment Observer Force in the Golan Heights and Security states to inspect vessels suspected of being used the implementation of resolution 1559 (Lebanon) for migrant smuggling or human trafficking off are also scheduled. the coast of Libya. The one European issue currently on the pro- The Council intends to adopt a resolution gramme this month is Kosovo. renewing the mandate of the UN Integrated Also this month, President of the Internation- Office inHaiti in October. Earlier in the month, a al Court of Justice Abdulqawi Ahmed Yusuf will briefing is scheduled on Haiti. Also on the Ameri- provide the annual briefing to the Council, most cas, the Council plans to meet on developments in likely in a private meeting. 30 September 2020 This report is available online at Colombia, including the work of the UN Verifica- The Council is likely to continue to follow securitycouncilreport.org. tion Mission in Colombia. closely developments in Nagorno-Karabakh, For daily insights by SCR on evolving The mandate of the UN Mission for the Refer- among other cases, in October. Security Council actions please subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” endum in Western Sahara will be renewed. Prior series at whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. Security Council Report Monthly Forecast October 2020 securitycouncilreport.org 1 In Hindsight: The Annual Report to the General Assembly— Can It Be Improved? The Security Council’s annual report to the preparing for the opening of the next session. had swollen to almost 600 pages. Thus, the General Assembly has been one of the most Only a few participated in the report’s discus- report would no longer reproduce the month- belaboured aspects of the Council’s working sion. In 2019, the annual report was again ly assessments in full but would simply list the methods. Numerous initiatives undertaken adopted in August but, when scheduling the assessments “issued by the individual month- by member states since 1993 have aimed at discussion at the General Assembly, its presi- ly Presidencies of the Council on its work”. making the report more useful to its princi- dent allowed more time for preparations. This At the same time, the Council would begin pal addressee, the General Assembly, and to time, 27 speakers, including 14 permanent the practice of assigning responsibility for the general public. The most recent of these representatives, participated. drafting an introductory essay for the annual initiatives culminated in the adoption on This year, the Council adopted its 2019 report to one of its members (the July presi- 27 December 2019 of a note by the presi- annual report on 14 July, earlier than in pre- dency) to enhance its analytical content. The dent of the Security Council, tightening the vious years, during its first in-person meet- note also said that during the public meeting report’s preparation timeline with the aim of ing since the special measures necessitated when the report is adopted, “members of the presenting it to the General Assembly before by the COVID-19 pandemic went into effect Council who wish to do so could comment the beginning of summer, starting with the in mid-March. In turn, the 31 August dis- on the work of the Council for the period report for 2020. cussion in the General Assembly (held as an covered by the report”. The Council’s only Changes to the annual reporting process informal virtual meeting) included 37 mem- public debate on the adoption of its annual have come in response to pressure from the ber states, most of them represented by per- report took place in 2002, and the introduc- UN membership, which since the end of the manent representatives. tion, which initially was indeed analytical, Cold War has been increasingly called upon The most recent adjustment of the time- soon started losing this edge. to implement Council decisions in matters line—stipulating that starting with the 2020 Based on conversations with diplomats such as peacekeeping and sanctions and has report, its adoption should happen by 30 charged with drafting the introductory essay wanted better insight into, and more account- May “in time for its consideration by the in the last few years, it appears that achieving ability for, the Council’s work. Among recur- General Assembly immediately thereafter”— analytical content is hard for both substan- rent criticisms were calls for the Council to will be tested for the first-time next year. It tive and political reasons. Substantively, the make the annual report more analytical and may lead to more predictability and thus a monthly assessments by different presiden- for its timeline to allow for a thorough exami- more deliberate treatment of the report by cies—which constituted important primary nation by members prior to the discussion at the General Assembly. material for the drafters of the introduction the General Assembly. The situation seems to be more complex and since 1997 had been produced by all Responding to the timing-related concerns, with respect to addressing the other major presidencies, usually quite quickly—have, in the Council revised the process for the elabo- criticism of the annual report: its insuffi- the last few years, been submitted erratically. ration of the annual report in 2015, chang- cient analytical content. For more than two When the 2017 and 2018 annual reports were ing the reporting cycle to a calendar year decades, the Council has made an effort to circulated, only three of the 12 presidencies and moving the presentation of the report inject an element of analysis into the report. for each year had submitted assessments. For from the main part of the General Assem- In a 1997 note by the president that out- 2019, eight members submitted their assess- bly’s regular session to the following spring. lined a new structure for the annual report, ments in time to be used if the introduction Until then, the Council’s annual report had Council members specified that the report drafter so desired. Politically, the heightened covered the 12-month period ending shortly would contain, as an addendum, “brief divisiveness within the Council during the before the General Assembly session at which assessments on the work of the Security past several years has made agreeing on the it would be presented. In practice, there was Council, which representatives who have introduction—which is a consensus docu- usually insufficient time between the comple- completed their functions as President of the ment—more difficult and time-consuming. tion of the report and the end of the main Security Council may wish to prepare, under Some options for making the report more session for members to examine the report their own responsibility and following consul- useful and its discussion more substantive thoroughly ahead of its discussion.