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PACÍFICO 2 0 0 4 Programa De Estudios APEC Centro De Estudios De Asia Y África EL COLEGIO DE MÉXICO 4 ASIA PACÍFICO 2004

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PACÍFICO 2 0 0 4 Programa De Estudios APEC Centro De Estudios De Asia Y África EL COLEGIO DE MÉXICO 4 ASIA PACÍFICO 2004 ÍNDICE 3 ASIA PACÍFICO 2 0 0 4 Programa de Estudios APEC Centro de Estudios de Asia y África EL COLEGIO DE MÉXICO 4 ASIA PACÍFICO 2004 La publicación de esta obra tuvo el apoyo de la Comisión de Relaciones Exteriores Asia Pacífico del Senado de la República. Portada de Irma Eugenia Alva Valencia D.R. © El Colegio de México, A. C. Camino al Ajusco 20 Pedregal de Santa Teresa 10740 México, D. F. www.colmex.mx ISSN 1405-1893 Tipografía, formación e impresión: Solar, Servicios Editoriales, S. A. de C. V. Calle 2, núm. 21, Col. San Pedro de los Pinos, 03800 México, D. F. Se terminó de imprimir en septiembre de 2004. Certificado de licitud de título núm. 8536 y de contenido núm. 6016, expedidos por la Comisión Calificadora de Publicaciones y Revistas Ilustradas el 20 de abril de 1995. Número de reserva 04-1994-000000003662-102. Impreso en México/Printed in Mexico ÍNDICE 5 ASIA PACÍFICO 2004 Publicación anual del Centro de Estudios de Asia y África Director y editor responsable: Dr. Juan José Ramírez Bonilla NÚM. 11 2004 ÍNDICE Fortalezas y descalabros en el año del carnero, Eugenio Anguiano Roch 13 Camboya en 2003: nuevos tipos de turbulencia, John Marston 21 Disturbios antitailandeses 22 Tribunal para juzgar al Khmer Rouge 27 Elecciones de julio 29 Ingreso en la OMC 36 Economía 39 Relaciones exteriores: Sok Yoeun 40 Arrestos por terrorismo 41 Apéndice 43 China, Romer Cornejo Bustamante 47 Economía 47 Agricultura 54 Relaciones económicas con el exterior 56 Política 57 El SARS y su impacto 61 Relaciones exteriores 63 5 6 ASIA PACÍFICO 2004 China y Estados Unidos: socios y contendientes 63 China y su posición en Asia 65 Sociedad 68 Apéndice 72 La Península Coreana en 2003, José Luis León 75 Introducción 75 Pluralismo turbulento y estalinismo posmoderno: la política en la Península Coreana 76 “Sueños rotos” y reformas a cuentagotas: ¿qué sucede en la economía coreana? 82 Política internacional en la Península Coreana: La recomposición de la alianza Seúl-Washington y la difícil (pero no imposible) negociación con Pyongyang 90 Apéndices 95 Las Filipinas en 2003, Asunción Benítez Rush 99 Introducción 99 Aspectos sociopolíticos 100 Elecciones de 2004 100 Riqueza mal habida 104 Motín militar 106 Crisis constitucional 110 Cuestiones de seguridad 113 Fuga de un terrorista 113 Rebelión musulmana 114 Insurgencia comunista 116 Temas económicos 118 Galanteo a los filipinos de ultramar 118 Déficit presupuestal 120 Crecimiento económico modesto 121 Relaciones exteriores 123 Relaciones con Estados Unidos 123 Posición internacional 125 ANSEA 126 Relaciones con China 127 Observaciones a manera de conclusión 128 Apéndice 129 ÍNDICE 7 Hong Kong, 2003, Juan González García 133 Introducción 133 El discurso de principio de año de Tung Chee Hwa 135 El problema del SARS 136 Cuadro 1. Información del SARS en el mundo y la región china 137 Sociedad y escenario político 139 La economía de la RAEHK y el proceso de integración económica a la RPC 142 Cuadro 2. Variables macroeconómicas de la RAEHK 2003 143 Conclusiones 148 Apéndice 149 Indonesia, Gabriela Uranga 153 Política 153 Elecciones en 2004 156 El poder recuperado por los militares 156 Combate al terrorismo 157 Aceh 158 Papúa 159 Economía 159 Comercio exterior y turismo 160 Desempleo, trabajo informal y emigración laboral 160 Conclusiones 161 Apéndice 162 El Japón de 2004: ¿Una luz al final del largo túnel?, J. Daniel Toledo B. 165 La impronta de la recesión prolongada 165 Para grandes males, grandes remedios 167 El drama de la competitividad 170 Los TLC: ¿un nuevo camino para superar la crisis? 172 Las relaciones entre Japón y EU: el costo de la incondicionalidad 179 Un voto de confianza… pero no tanta 186 Una luz al final del largo túnel 191 Apéndice 195 Malasia, Juan José Ramírez Bonilla y Cindy Rayo Zapata 199 El desempeño económico 200 Sector manufacturero 200 8 ASIA PACÍFICO 2004 Sector agropecuario 201 El papel del gobierno como motor del crecimiento 202 Situación de la inversión extranjera directa 203 Comercio exterior 204 La balanza de cuenta corriente 206 Balanza de bienes y servicios 206 Balanza de cuenta corriente 207 Cuenta financiera 207 Política interior 207 Hacia el cambio de régimen: Mahathir y Badawi 208 Religión 209 La Conferencia de la Organización Islámica 210 Otras cuestiones importantes de la política interior 210 Terrorismo 211 Política exterior 211 Cuadro 1. PIB trimestral y anual 2001-2003 a precios constantes de 1987 214 Gráfica 1. Cambio porcentual anual de los índices de producción de las manufacturas orientadas al mercado doméstico, 2001-2003 215 Gráfica 2. Cambio porcentual anual de los índices de producción de las manufacturas orientadas al mercado externo, 2001-2003 216 Gráfica 3. Cambio porcentual anual de los índices de producción de las manufacturas orientadas al mercado doméstico, 2001-2003 217 Cuadro 2a. Cambios porcentuales de los índices de producción de las manufacturas orientadas hacia el mercado exterior, 2001-2003 218 Cuadro 2b. Cambios porcentuales de los índices de producción de las manufacturas orientadas hacia el mercado doméstico, 2001-2003 219 Cuadro 3a. Finanzas gubernamentales 220 Cuadro 3b. Finanzas gubernamentales 220 Gráfica 4. Inversión extranjera directa, 1996-2003 221 Cuadro 4. Inversión extranjera directa desde y hacia Malasia, 1996-2003 221 Cuadro 5a. Inversión extranjera directa hacia Malasia por países de origen 222 ÍNDICE 9 Cuadro 5b. Inversión extranjera directa desde Malasia por países de destino 222 Cuadro 6. Comercio exterior, 1997-2003 223 Cuadro 7a. Destino de las exportaciones 224 Cuadro 7b. Origen de las importaciones 224 Cuadro 8. Balanza de pagos 225 Apéndice 227 La Federación Rusa, 2003, Tatiana Sidorenko 231 Introducción 231 Economía 231 Los primeros resultados del censo de población de 2002 239 Política interna 240 Relaciones internacionales 245 Apéndice 248 Singapur, Blanca E. Hernández Polo 251 Desempeño económico 253 Cuadro 1. Producto interno bruto a precios de 1995 254 Cuadro 2. Impacto de la caída del turismo a consecuencia del SARS 254 Gráfica 1. Estructura de la economía de Singapur 256 Medidas de corto plazo 256 Medidas de largo plazo 257 Política interna 257 Política exterior 258 Malasia 259 Terrorismo, armas de destrucción masiva e Irak 259 Acuerdos de libre comercio 261 Apéndice 264 Tailandia en 2003. Las pandillas en Bangkok, Guadalupe Erika Ibarra Kurka 267 Política 269 Relaciones internacionales 273 Economía 278 Apéndice 280 10 ASIA PACÍFICO 2004 Taiwan, Eugenio Anguiano 283 Política 284 El problema de la identidad taiwanesa 285 Las tácticas de Chen Shui-bian 288 Rectificación del nombre 289 Los resultados de las tácticas del presidente Chen 291 Partidos y escándalos políticos 292 Yuan Judicial 294 SARS 294 Cuadro 1. Magnitud de la epidemia de SARS 295 Cuadro 2. Costo mundial de la epidemia de SARS 296 Obituario 296 Política exterior 298 Apoyo latinoamericano 299 Relaciones con China 301 Relaciones con Estados Unidos 303 Economía 304 Cuadro 3. Principales indicadores económicos, 1999-2003 305 ¿Elefantes blancos? 306 El papel de las empresas de alta tecnología 308 Apéndice 309 Vietnam: el costo del desarrollo, Atzimba Luna Becerril 313 Introducción 313 Economía 314 Política interna 317 Política externa 320 Conclusiones 321 Apéndice 323 ANEXO ESTADÍSTICO 11. Extensión territorial, población y población urbana 327 12. PIB a precios corrientes de dólares estadunidenses 327 13. Tasa de crecimiento del PIB 328 14. Contribución sectorial del PIB, 2001-2002 329 15. Tasa de desempleo 329 16. Inversión extranjera directa (IED) en algunos países de Asia Pacífico 330 ÍNDICE 11 17. Balanza de la cuenta corriente 330 18. Balanza de la cuenta comercial 331 19. Exportaciones e importaciones FOB, 2002 331 10. Exportaciones e importaciones de bienes y servicios 332 11. Dirección del comercio: algunos países miembros del Foro APEC, 1991 333 12. Dirección del comercio: algunos países miembros del Foro APEC, 2001 334 13. Dirección del comercio: algunos países miembros del Foro APEC, exportaciones, 2002 335 14. Dirección del comercio: algunos países miembros del Foro APEC, importaciones, 2002 336 15. Balanza comercial de México con algunos socios de Asia Pacífico; exportaciones, 2000-2003 337 16. Balanza comercial de México con algunos socios de Asia Pacífico; importaciones, 2000-2003 338 17. Balanza comercial de México con algunos socios de Asia Pacífico; saldo FOB-FOB, 2000-2003 339 18. Tipo de cambio al dólar estadunidense promedio anual, 1997-2002 340 12 ASIA PACÍFICO 2004 FORTALEZAS Y DESCALABROS EN EL AÑO DEL CARNERO 13 FORTALEZAS Y DESCALABROS EN EL AÑO DEL CARNERO EUGENIO A NGUIANO ROCH Coordinador Programa de Estudios APEC El Colegio de México La región asiática del Pacífico vivió en 2003 —año del carnero, según el ca- lendario lunar— una notable bonanza comercial y financiera, junto con algu- nos descalabros que afectaron a varios países y con la presencia de rezagos sociales y políticos en otras economías del área. Comenzando con los tropiezos, destaca la epidemia del llamado síndro- me respiratorio severo agudo (SARS, por sus siglas en inglés), que brotó en el sureste de China y de allí se expandió a muchas otras partes de Asia oriental y sudoriental e incluso a otras regiones más alejadas de Asia, como Europa y América del Norte, en particular Canadá. Se trata de una enfermedad extraña y novedosa cuya identificación plena tomó varios meses. Se requirieron el tiempo y los esfuerzos colectivos de varios gobiernos y de la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) para combatirla y desarrollar antídotos. La epidemia causó unas 800 muertes y de acuerdo con las cifras de la OMS (véase detalles en el capítulo de “Taiwan”) sólo en China hubo 5 329 ca- sos y 334 decesos. Hong Kong fue la segunda entidad más afectada —1 747 casos y 283 muertes— seguida de Taiwan y Singapur. La virulencia de la enfermedad provocó una notoria contracción del turismo hacia las zonas más afectadas, ausentismo laboral, cierre temporal de escuelas, gastos de emer- gencia en salud, campañas de prevención y educación, etcétera.
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