Interpreting the Implacable Foe: American Perceptions of Iran
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A WAY FORWARD with IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy
A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy THE SOUFAN CENTER FEBRUARY 2021 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? Options for Crafting a U.S. Strategy THE SOUFAN CENTER FEBRUARY 2021 Cover photo: Associated Press Photo/Photographer: Mohammad Berno 2 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY CONTENTS List of Abbreviations 4 List of Figures 5 Key Findings 6 How Did We Reach This Point? 7 Roots of the U.S.-Iran Relationship 9 The Results of the Maximum Pressure Policy 13 Any Change in Iranian Behavior? 21 Biden Administration Policy and Implementation Options 31 Conclusion 48 Contributors 49 About The Soufan Center 51 3 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS BPD Barrels Per Day FTO Foreign Terrorist Organization GCC Gulf Cooperation Council IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile IMF International Monetary Fund IMSC International Maritime Security Construct INARA Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act INSTEX Instrument for Supporting Trade Exchanges IRGC Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps IRGC-QF Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps - Qods Force JCPOA Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action MBD Million Barrels Per Day PMF Popular Mobilization Forces SRE Significant Reduction Exception 4 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. STRATEGY LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Iran Annual GDP Growth and Change in Crude Oil Exports 18 Figure 2: Economic Effects of Maximum Pressure 19 Figure 3: Armed Factions Supported by Iran 25 Figure 4: Comparison of Iran Nuclear Program with JCPOA Limitations 28 5 A WAY FORWARD WITH IRAN? OPTIONS FOR CRAFTING A U.S. -
The Case of Iran's Nuclear Program
Penn State Journal of Law & International Affairs Volume 2 Issue 2 November 2013 The Prohibition on the Use of Force for Arms Control: The Case of Iran’s Nuclear Program Mary Ellen O'Connell University of Notre Dame Law School Reyam El Molla Follow this and additional works at: https://elibrary.law.psu.edu/jlia Part of the Diplomatic History Commons, History of Science, Technology, and Medicine Commons, International and Area Studies Commons, International Law Commons, International Trade Law Commons, Law and Politics Commons, Political Science Commons, Public Affairs, Public Policy and Public Administration Commons, Rule of Law Commons, Social History Commons, and the Transnational Law Commons ISSN: 2168-7951 Custom Citation The Prohibition on the Use of Force for Arms Control: The Case of Iran’s Nuclear Program, 2 Penn. St. J.L. & Int’l Aff. 315 (2013). The Penn State Journal of Law & International Affairs is a joint publication of Penn State’s School of Law and School of International Affairs. Penn State Journal of Law & International Affairs 2013 VOLUME 2 NO. 2 THE PROHIBITION ON THE USE OF FORCE FOR ARMS CONTROL: THE CASE OF IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM Mary Ellen O’Connell and Reyam El Molla* In many discussions of Iran’s nuclear program, there seems to be an implicit assumption that states have a right to use military force to end the program. For example, the Institute for National Security Studies,1 an Israeli think tank, in an article titled, The Legality of an Attack against Iranian Nuclear Facilities, places emphasis on proving the necessity of an attack as a last resort but fails to indicate any accepted legal basis for resort to military force as an initial matter.2 In fact, international law does not permit the use of military force without United Nations Security Council authorization for arms control of any kind, whether to end a nuclear program, to end a chemical weapons program, or to prevent missile shipments. -
Focus On: Sanctions Against Iran, Libya and Syria July 2011
Focus on: sanctions against Iran, Libya and Syria July 2011 The worsening situation in Libya and Syria and the need to prevent sanction busting by Iran have provoked further tight- ening of international sanctions. The main measures approved by the EU, UN and US in recent months will have im- pacts on the economies and diplomatic relations of the above-mentioned countries. Iran . Iran’s efforts to bypass international sanctions by using foreign companies and other countries (a practice known as sanction busting) have resulted in the EU and US tightening sanctions and adding more institutions and indi- viduals to their blacklists. The aim of the sanctions, which target Iran’s finances, is to force Tehran to re-open ne- gotiations on its nuclear development programme and resolve the stalemate. Having adopted Regulation 961/2010 in October 2010, in May 2011 the European Council approved Council Im- plementing Regulation (EU) No. 503/2011 adding more people and entities to its blacklist. Among theme is the Iranian Europäisch-Iranisch Handelsbank (EIH) bank based in Hamburg, Germany, accused of breaching EC regulations and UN Security Council resolutions. In a move to raise pressure on Iran, at the beginning of June the US also decided to apply the principle of extra- territoriality. Having imposed sanctions against seven foreign companies (including the PDVSA and an Israeli group) for supplying fuel to Iranian companies, the US has continued to revise its blacklist, which includes the Iranian state-owned Bank of Industry and Mine accused of providing services to Bank Mellat and EIH already subject to US sanctions. -
Phoenix IV and Phoenix
AP/GT Phoenix III ~ SUMMER READING, 2018 Assignment: Read at least three books this summer, one for discussion as a class during the first week of school and at least two more of your own choosing, simply for pleasure. Book #1: Teacher Choice: The Signet Book of American Essays, Edited by M. Jerry Weiss and Helen S. Weiss ISBN-10: 0451530217 ISBN-13: 978-0451530219 Read Mark Twain’s “Advice to Youth” and at least three (3) other selections from this essay collection. You may read any three that you like EXCEPT “Letter from Birmingham Jail” by Martin Luther King, Jr. and “Civil Disobedience” by Henry David Thoreau which we will read together later in the school year. Be prepared to discuss Twain’s essay and your three chosen selections during the first week of school. Books #2 and #3: Student Choice: Read at least two books of your own choosing. they may be classic works or contemporary pieces one must be fiction, one must be non-fiction they may be from any genre (history, science fiction, memoir, mystery, religion, etc.) they must be written for an adult audience For suggestions, see the list of AP authors on the back of this sheet. You do not have to select authors from this list, but it is an excellent place to start. You may also refer to the “Looking for a Good Book?” tab on Ms. Hughes’ website, the bestsellers list of The New York Times, Dallas Morning News, or any other reputable source for suggestions. In addition, librarians, family, and friends can be excellent sources. -
How the Kremlin Weaponizes Information, Culture and Money by Peter Pomerantsev and Michael Weiss
The Menace of Unreality: How the Kremlin Weaponizes Information, Culture and Money by Peter Pomerantsev and Michael Weiss A Special Report presented by The Interpreter, a project of the Institute of Modern Russia imrussia.org interpretermag.com The Institute of Modern Russia (IMR) is a nonprofit, nonpartisan public policy organization—a think tank based in New York. IMR’s mission is to foster democratic and economic development in Russia through research, advocacy, public events, and grant-making. We are committed to strengthening respect for human rights, the rule of law, and civil society in Russia. Our goal is to promote a principles- based approach to US-Russia relations and Russia’s integration into the community of democracies. The Interpreter is a daily online journal dedicated primarily to translating media from the Russian press and blogosphere into English and reporting on events inside Russia and in countries directly impacted by Russia’s foreign policy. Conceived as a kind of “Inopressa in reverse,” The Interpreter aspires to dismantle the language barrier that separates journalists, Russia analysts, policymakers, diplomats and interested laymen in the English-speaking world from the debates, scandals, intrigues and political developments taking place in the Russian Federation. CONTENTS Introductions ...................................................................... 4 Executive Summary ........................................................... 6 Background ........................................................................ -
THE FUTURE of US-IRAN RELATIONS by Jenny Gan
THE FUTURE OF US-IRAN RELATIONS By Jenny Gan INTRODUCTION Over the past fifty years, the United States and Iran have experienced a tumultuous relationship that has sometimes revealed itself as a close international partnership and other times a contentious rivalry. Since 1953, the United States has helped conduct President Trump a coup d’état in 1953 to overthrow Iran’s prime minister, navigated imposing sanctions the US Embassy hostage crisis, and dealt with the Iran-Contra on Iran following scandal (“US-Iran Relations”). Despite a rocky end to the 20th the dissolution of century, following sanctions in the early 2000s, the US and Iran the US-Iran Nuclear entered a state of peace following the rising global concerns over the Deal. development of an Iranian nuclear arsenal (“US-Iran Relations”). Saul Loeb/AFP via However, the United States’ relationship with Iran took a sharp Getty Images turn following rising tensions in the Gulf, including new economic sanctions, explosions targeting oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman, and US military drone surveillance over the Strait of Hormuz (“US-Iran Relations”). Tensions rose to a fever pitch after the assassination of Coup d’état – the General Qasem Soleimani by a US drone and resulted in Iran pulling forcible removal of an out of the nuclear agreement while also promising revenge against existing government the United States (Ward). from power through Best described as tumultuous, the relationship between Iran and violent means. the United States has major implications for global peace, as Iran has nuclear capabilities and is a key player in the Middle East, a region where the United States has vested economic and political interests. -
CLASSROOM | 9-12 Lessons
CLASSROOM | 9-12 Lessons : JIMMY CARTER AND THE IRANIAN HOSTAGE CRISIS President Carter announces sanctions against Iran in the White House Press Room. Jimmy Carter Library Jimmy Carter would say later, “No matter who was with me, we watched the big grandfather clock by the door.” Time was running out, for it was Tuesday, January 20, 1981. The scene was the Oval Office. In just hours this president would leave it for good, and a new leader, Ronald Reagan, would move in. As the clock ticked the time away, Carter tried to resolve a crisis that had almost destroyed his presidency. He was close, very close, and as he said, “At stake were the lives of 52 precious human beings who had been imprisoned in Iran for 444 days–and almost 12 billion dollars of Iranian assets.” 1 Prelude The beginnings of this crisis preceded Jimmy Carter’s term by almost thirty years. For that long, the United States had provided political support and, more recently, massive military assistance to the government of the shah of Iran. Iran was important because it provided oil to the industrial West and separated the Soviet Union from the Persian Gulf and the oil states. The United States had an enormous stake in keeping it stable and independent. By 1979, however, when Carter had been in office three years, the shah was in trouble, reaping the harvest of years of brutal and unpopular policies, including the use of secret police that controlled dissent with arbitrary arrests and torture.2 It was clear that the shah had lost the (next page) White House Historical Association | http://www.whha.org | Pg. -
Iran and the Soft Aw R Monroe Price University of Pennsylvania, [email protected]
University of Pennsylvania ScholarlyCommons Departmental Papers (ASC) Annenberg School for Communication 2012 Iran and the Soft aW r Monroe Price University of Pennsylvania, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.upenn.edu/asc_papers Part of the Social Influence and Political Communication Commons Recommended Citation Price, M. (2012). Iran and the Soft aW r. International Journal of Communication, 6 2397-2415. Retrieved from https://repository.upenn.edu/asc_papers/732 This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. https://repository.upenn.edu/asc_papers/732 For more information, please contact [email protected]. Iran and the Soft aW r Disciplines Communication | Social and Behavioral Sciences | Social Influence and Political Communication This journal article is available at ScholarlyCommons: https://repository.upenn.edu/asc_papers/732 International Journal of Communication 6 (2012), Feature 2397–2415 1932–8036/2012FEA0002 Iran and the Soft War MONROE PRICE University of Pennsylvania The events of the Arab Spring instilled in many authorities the considerable fear that they could too easily lose control over the narratives of legitimacy that undergird their power. 1 This threat to national power was already a part of central thinking in Iran. Their reaction to the Arab Spring was especially marked because of a long-held feeling that strategic communicators from outside the state’s borders were purposely reinforcing domestic discontent. I characterize strategic communications as, most dramatically, investment by an external source in methods to alter basic elements of a societal consensus. In this essay, I want to examine what this process looks like from what might be called the “inside,” the view from the perspective of the target society. -
PETITIONERS V
No. In the Supreme Court of the United States DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES ET AL., PETITIONERS v. STATE OF HAWAII, ET AL. ON PETITION FOR A WRIT OF CERTIORARI TO THE UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS FOR THE NINTH CIRCUIT PETITION FOR A WRIT OF CERTIORARI NOEL J. FRANCISCO Solicitor General Counsel of Record CHAD A. READLER Acting Assistant Attorney General JEFFREY B. WALL EDWIN S. KNEEDLER Deputy Solicitors General HASHIM M. MOOPPAN Deputy Assistant Attorney General JONATHAN C. BOND MICHAEL R. HUSTON Assistants to the Solicitor General SHARON SWINGLE H. THOMAS BYRON III Attorneys Department of Justice Washington, D.C. 20530-0001 [email protected] (202) 514-2217 QUESTIONS PRESENTED The Constitution and Acts of Congress confer on the President broad authority to prohibit or restrict the entry of aliens outside the United States when he deems it in the Nation’s interest. Exercising that authority after a worldwide review by multiple government agencies of whether foreign governments provide sufficient infor- mation to screen their nationals, the President issued Proclamation No. 9645, 82 Fed. Reg. 45,161 (Sept. 27, 2017). In accordance with the recommendation of the Acting Secretary of Homeland Security following the multi-agency review, the Proclamation suspends entry, subject to exceptions and case-by-case waivers, of cer- tain categories of aliens abroad from eight countries that do not share adequate information with the United States or that present other risk factors. The district court issued a preliminary injunction barring enforce- ment of the Proclamation’s entry suspensions world- wide, except as to nationals of two countries. -
October 19-October 25) ______
Presents International Events and Opportunities Newsletter (Weeks of October 19-October 25) __________________________________________________________________________________________ The Ethics in Science Lecture Series Presents Arming Mother Nature: The Birth of Catastrophic Environmentalism Presented by Jacob Hamblin, Ph.D., Oregon State University Friday, October 18, 2013 11:00 A.M. - 12:30 P.M. University of Houston 232 Philip G. Hoffman Hall Professor Hamblin argues that military planning for World War III essentially created "catastrophic environmentalism": the idea that human activity might cause global natural disasters. This awareness, Hamblin shows, emerged out of dark ambitions, as governments poured funds into environmental science after World War II, searching for ways to harness natural processes in order to gain military advantage. Proposals included the use of nuclear weapons to create artiNicial tsunamis or melt the ice caps to drown coastal cities; setting Nire to vast expanses of vegetation; and changing local climates. This work raised questions that went beyond the goal of weaponizing nature. "Perhaps one of the surprises is not how little was known about environmental change, but rather how much," Hamblin maintains. Please visit the Ethics in Science website for more information. The Asian American Student Center Presents “iCount: A Data Quality Movement for Asian American and PaciNic Islanders” Presented by Dr. Robert Tarnish October 23, 2013 12:30-2:00 p.m. in the Kiva of Farish Hall A light lunch will be served. Please contact Elizabeth Gonzales at [email protected] for more information. Our lecture’s motto – Every student counts! Making every student visible! – is adopted from the National Commission on Asian American and PaciNic Islander Research in Education. -
Us Policy Towards the Islamic Republic of Iran Hearing
S. HRG. 111–746 U.S. POLICY TOWARDS THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN HEARING BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES UNITED STATES SENATE ONE HUNDRED ELEVENTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION APRIL 14, 2010 Printed for the use of the Committee on Armed Services ( U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 62–667 PDF WASHINGTON : 2010 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, http://bookstore.gpo.gov. For more information, contact the GPO Customer Contact Center, U.S. Government Printing Office. Phone 202–512–1800, or 866–512–1800 (toll-free). E-mail, [email protected]. VerDate Aug 31 2005 13:35 Dec 07, 2010 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00001 Fmt 5011 Sfmt 5011 Y:\BORAWSKI\DOCS\62667.TXT JUNE PsN: JUNEB COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES CARL LEVIN, Michigan, Chairman ROBERT C. BYRD, West Virginia JOHN MCCAIN, Arizona JOSEPH I. LIEBERMAN, Connecticut JAMES M. INHOFE, Oklahoma JACK REED, Rhode Island JEFF SESSIONS, Alabama DANIEL K. AKAKA, Hawaii SAXBY CHAMBLISS, Georgia BILL NELSON, Florida LINDSEY GRAHAM, South Carolina E. BENJAMIN NELSON, Nebraska JOHN THUNE, South Dakota EVAN BAYH, Indiana ROGER F. WICKER, Mississippi JIM WEBB, Virginia GEORGE S. LeMIEUX, Florida CLAIRE McCASKILL, Missouri SCOTT P. BROWN, Massachusetts MARK UDALL, Colorado RICHARD BURR, North Carolina KAY R. HAGAN, North Carolina DAVID VITTER, Louisiana MARK BEGICH, Alaska SUSAN M. COLLINS, Maine ROLAND W. BURRIS, Illinois JEFF BINGAMAN, New Mexico EDWARD E. KAUFMAN, Delaware RICHARD D. DEBOBES, Staff Director JOSEPH W. BOWAB, Republican Staff Director (II) VerDate Aug 31 2005 13:35 Dec 07, 2010 Jkt 000000 PO 00000 Frm 00002 Fmt 0486 Sfmt 0486 Y:\BORAWSKI\DOCS\62667.TXT JUNE PsN: JUNEB C O N T E N T S CHRONOLOGICAL LIST OF WITNESSES U.S. -
The Future of Iranian Terror and Its Threat to the U.S. Homeland
THE FUTURE OF IRANIAN TERROR AND ITS THREAT TO THE U.S. HOMELAND HEARING BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON COUNTERTERRORISM AND INTELLIGENCE OF THE COMMITTEE ON HOMELAND SECURITY HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED FOURTEENTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION FEBRUARY 11, 2016 Serial No. 114–53 Printed for the use of the Committee on Homeland Security Available via the World Wide Web: http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/ U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE 21–525 PDF WASHINGTON : 2016 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Publishing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512–1800; DC area (202) 512–1800 Fax: (202) 512–2104 Mail: Stop IDCC, Washington, DC 20402–0001 COMMITTEE ON HOMELAND SECURITY MICHAEL T. MCCAUL, Texas, Chairman LAMAR SMITH, Texas BENNIE G. THOMPSON, Mississippi PETER T. KING, New York LORETTA SANCHEZ, California MIKE ROGERS, Alabama SHEILA JACKSON LEE, Texas CANDICE S. MILLER, Michigan, Vice Chair JAMES R. LANGEVIN, Rhode Island JEFF DUNCAN, South Carolina BRIAN HIGGINS, New York TOM MARINO, Pennsylvania CEDRIC L. RICHMOND, Louisiana LOU BARLETTA, Pennsylvania WILLIAM R. KEATING, Massachusetts SCOTT PERRY, Pennsylvania DONALD M. PAYNE, JR., New Jersey CURT CLAWSON, Florida FILEMON VELA, Texas JOHN KATKO, New York BONNIE WATSON COLEMAN, New Jersey WILL HURD, Texas KATHLEEN M. RICE, New York EARL L. ‘‘BUDDY’’ CARTER, Georgia NORMA J. TORRES, California MARK WALKER, North Carolina BARRY LOUDERMILK, Georgia MARTHA MCSALLY, Arizona JOHN RATCLIFFE, Texas DANIEL M. DONOVAN, JR., New York BRENDAN P. SHIELDS, Staff Director JOAN V. O’HARA, General Counsel MICHAEL S. TWINCHEK, Chief Clerk I. LANIER AVANT, Minority Staff Director SUBCOMMITTEE ON COUNTERTERRORISM AND INTELLIGENCE PETER T.