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Belarus Facing Dual Enlargement: Will the EU Squeeze Harder?

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FOI-R—0859—SE May 2003 ISSN 1650-1942 Base data report Vyachaslau Paznyak Belarus Facing Dual Enlargement: Will the EU Squeeze Harder? Defence Analysis SE-172 90 Stockholm SWEDISH DEFENCE RESEARCH AGENCY FOI-R—0859—SE Defence Analysis May 2003 SE-172 90 Stockholm ISSN 1650-1942 Base data report Vyachaslau Paznyak Belarus Facing Dual Enlargement: Will the EU Squeeze Harder? Issuing organization Report number, ISRN Report type FOI – Swedish Defence Research Agency FOI-R—0859—SE Base data report Defence Analysis Research area code SE-172 90 Stockholm 1. Defence and Security Policy Month year Project no. May 2003 A 1101 Customers code 1. Research for the Government Sub area code 11 Defence Research for the Government Author/s (editor/s) Project manager Vyachaslau Paznyak Approved by Scientifically and technically responsible Report title Belarus Facing Dual Enlargement: Will the EU Squeeze Harder? Abstract (not more than 200 words) EU and NATO eastern enlargement raises a host of difficult issues for Belarus, the solution of which requires enhanced cooperation and financial and technical assistance, first of all in the meeting of new security challenges, the modernization of the border infrastructure and preparing a multilateral package of readmission agreements. A positive change in relations between Belarus and the EU/NATO depends on Belarus’ turn to democratic and market economic reforms. The dual enlargement has embraced also the OSCE and other European organizations, which promote institutional change by spreading common values, norms and practices. Paradoxically, Belarus relations with NATO have for some time looked better than those with the EU, even though they do not go beyond cooperation on “second-order” programs. Belarus has yet to accept the realities of the post-Cold War settlement in Europe. It has remained the last European country in a “state of war” with the West, whereas its union partner Russia concluded a “peace treaty” with NATO by signing the 1997 Founding Act and moved further towards a strategic partnership by instituting the NATO–Russia Council in May 2002. Belarusian authorities should acknowledge that a military response to the NATO “threat” is pointless. EU enlargement is a more comprehensive challenge than NATO enlargement. Keywords Belarus, EU, NATO, Russia, Poland, Lithuania, TACIS, borders, trade, migration, crime, energy Further bibliographic information Language English ISSN 1650-1942 Pages 75 p. Price acc. to pricelist Security classification Utgivare Rapportnummer, ISRNKlassificering Totalförsvarets Forskningsinstitut - FOI FOI-R—0859—SE Underlagsrapport Försvarsanalys Forskningsområde 172 90 Stockholm 1. Försvar- och säkerhetspolitik Månad, år Projektnummer Maj 2003 A 1101 Verksamhetsgren 1. Forskning för regeringens behov Delområde 11 Försvarsforskning för regeringens behov Författare/redaktör Projektledare Jan Leijonhielm Vyachaslau Paznyak Godkänd av Tekniskt och/eller vetenskapligt ansvarig Rapportens titel (i översättning) Vitryssland inför östutvidgningarna: Kommer EU att pressa hårdare? Sammanfattning (högst 200 ord) Östutvidgningen av NATO och EU reser en rad svåra problem för Vitryssland, vilkas lösning kräver ökat samarbete och finansiellt-tekniskt bistånd, främst i att möta nya säkerhetshot, modernisera gränsernas infrastruktur och underteckna ett multilateralt paket av avtal om återtagande av flyktingar. En positiv förändring i relationerna mellan Vitryssland och NATO/EU förutsätter att Vitryssland inleder demokratiska och marknadsekonomiska reformer. Den dubbla utvidgningen har också omfattat OSSE och andra europeiska institutioner, som befrämjar institutionellla förändringar genom att sprida gemensamma värderingar, normer och praxis. Paradoxalt nog har Vitrysslands relationer med NATO under några år sett bättre ut än med EU, även om de bara omfattar samarbete om sekundära program. Vitryssland har ännu inte accepterat realiteten av situationen i Europa efter det kalla kriget. Det har förblivit det enda europeiska land som har ”krigstillstånd” med väst, medan dess unionspartner Ryssland slöt ett ”fredsavtal” med NATO genom Founding Act 1997 och gick vidare mot strategiskt partnerskap genom att bilda NATO-Rysslandsrådet i maj 2002. Vitryska myndigheter torde se att ett militärt svar på ”hotet” från NATO är poänglöst. EU:s utvidgning är en mer omfattande utmaning än NATO-utvidgningen. Nyckelord Vitryssland, EU, NATO, Ryssland, Polen, Litauen, TACIS, gränser, handel, migration, brott, energi Övriga bibliografiska uppgifter Språk Engelska ISSN 1650-1942 Antal sidor: 75 s. Distribution enligt missiv Pris: Enligt prislista Sekretess Preface Since its emergence as an independent state in 1991 Belarus has largely been unknown to or disregarded by the Western public. However, with the eastern enlargement of NATO and EU reaching the borders of Belarus, the country has attracted growing attention, especially from its neighbors on the Baltic Sea. The political regime in Belarus and its reaction to the dual enlargement are in fact unique in the region. The publication of this report is intended to contribute to the understanding of the current security problems concerning Belarus and to stimulate discussion primarily in Sweden. The report analyses the official policy of Belarus with regard to the dual enlargement and the effects of the enlargement on its relations with Russia in a comparative perspective. It contains a wealth of factual information and assessments, based as it is on many sources, mainly Belarusian and Western websites, newspapers, scientific journals and research literature as shown in the bibliography. The report covers the developments up to January 2003, thus leaving out for example the possible effects of the recent war in Iraq. The author, Dr. Vyachaslau Paznyak, born in 1954, received his degree in 1988 after defending a dissertation on US foreign policy strategies in 1980–1985. He is Director of the International Institute for Policy Studies, a non-governmental think-tank in Minsk (see http://iips.virtualave.net/eng/publs.html.), and Associate Professor in political science at the European Humanities University in Minsk since 1997. Mr. Paznyak is also a well- known researcher, who has participated in numerous international projects and conferences, and has written many studies printed in the West. ([email protected]) This report is published by the FOI as support for a project on Russian foreign, defense and security policy (RUFS) and belongs to a series of reports about Russia and its neighbors (see back cover). FOI staff has adapted the report to its own publishing format and made the summaries above. Otherwise the author is responsible for the contents of the report. The fact that the FOI publishes the report in no way means an endorsement of opinions expressed in it. Jan Leijonhielm Manager Contents Introduction 3 1. Belarus and the European Union: An Overview 5 1.1 Current status, problems and prospects for the TACIS program in Belarus 7 2. Russia’s, Ukraine’s and Belarus’ Relations with the EU in A Comparative Perspective 9 2.1 The Russian Federation 9 2.2 Ukraine 12 2.3 Belarus 14 3. Belarus and Its Neighbors: Regional Issues and Regional Cooperation 17 3.1 Border issues 17 3.2 Migration issues 20 3.3 Regional cooperation on combating organized crime and terrorism 23 3.4 Energy/gas/oil transit and transportation issues 26 3.5 The Kaliningrad question: a non-pilot project for Belarus 28 4. Belarus and EU Enlargement: Challenges with Narrow Opportunities in Sight 31 5. Belarus and NATO: It Takes Two to Tango 35 5.1 An archaeology of history: no post-modernist delight 35 5.2 Cooperation under the Partnership for Peace program 42 5.3 Misperceptions and ambivalent strategies vs. the expansion of the “new division lines” 43 5.4 Belarus, NATO and Russia: an unhappy ‘triangle’ 47 Conclusions 53 Appendices 57 Appendix 1. Migration to and from Belarus 57 Appendix 2. EU declarations on Belarus 58 Appendix 3 Public attitudes in Belarus 60 Appendix 4 Estimates of external threats in Belarus media 62 Bibliography 67 Websites 74 2 3 Introduction The parallel enlargement of the European Union and NATO obviously plays a major role in the dramatic transformations that have swept Europe in the new millennium. It is aimed at meeting new challenges, but it is also a challenge in and of itself, not least for the countries which remain “outsiders” to this process, but which are becoming new direct neighbors of the enlarging entities. Belarus takes a special place amidst these kaleidoscopic events. It is the country in Central–Eastern Europe with the lowest-level relations and the highest-level tensions as regards both the EU and NATO, as well as some other European organizations for that matter. It may, therefore, find itself “out in the cold” and suffer rather than benefit from the ongoing expansion. By the same token, because of its important geopolitical position and its transit role for the European Union and Eurasia, Belarus is bound to exert a considerable influence over the climate of cooperation, and more specifically over the shaping of new border, trade and security regimes in the region and beyond. Therefore, from the perspective of the dual enlargement Belarus presents a dual issue: its particular problems are increasingly connected with and magnified by the expansion of the two most powerful European political, economic, and security institutions. While the developments at the new EU and NATO eastern borders are at a relatively early stage, it may be just the right
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