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Office Market Assessment, Montgomery County, Maryland

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Office Market Assessment, Montgomery County, Maryland Office Market Assessment, Montgomery County, Maryland Prepared for Montgomery County Planning Department June 2, 2015 Montgomery County’s Challenge .......................................................................................... 1 Types of Office Tenants ........................................................................................................ 3 Demand Forces...................................................................................................................... 4 Employment-Driven Demand ........................................................................................... 4 Shifting Usage Patterns .................................................................................................... 5 Timing of Change .............................................................................................................. 6 Supply Forces ........................................................................................................................ 6 Sustainability .................................................................................................................... 6 Shifting Locational Demand ............................................................................................. 6 Construction in Excess of Demand ................................................................................... 7 Federal Space Cutbacks .................................................................................................... 7 Major Vacancies................................................................................................................. 9 Limited New Construction ...............................................................................................10 Heavy Competition ...........................................................................................................10 Office Building Conversions .............................................................................................11 Regional and County Employment ......................................................................................12 Regional Employment Trends ..........................................................................................13 Montgomery County Employment Trends .......................................................................15 Conclusions ..........................................................................................................................21 Regional Market ...................................................................................................................22 Montgomery County and Competitive Jurisdictions ..........................................................23 Absorption Trends by Jurisdiction ...................................................................................26 Class of Space ...................................................................................................................29 County Submarket Conditions ............................................................................................31 Geographic Distribution ...................................................................................................31 Submarket Office Market Trends ....................................................................................35 Office Clusters by Type ........................................................................................................37 Office Typology .................................................................................................................37 Metro Station Areas .........................................................................................................38 Clusters by Type of Environment ....................................................................................39 Regional Comparison .......................................................................................................46 i Vacant Space Projections .....................................................................................................49 Tougher Competition ...........................................................................................................50 New Construction ................................................................................................................51 Office Space in the Development Pipeline...........................................................................51 Prospects for Large Vacant Campus Developments ........................................................53 Conversions to Residential Use........................................................................................53 Fiscal Implications ...............................................................................................................54 Successful Office Markets ....................................................................................................56 Mixed-Use with Great Public Space and Programming – Reston Town Center ............56 New Public Infrastructure – NoMa..................................................................................57 Urban Mixed-Use in the Suburbs – Mosaic District .......................................................58 Great Public Spaces and Mixed-Use – Capitol Riverfront ..............................................59 Urban Mixed-Use and Cultural Anchors – Shirlington ..................................................60 Reusing Suburban Office Campuses ...................................................................................62 Subdivision of Space and Rezoning – Bridgewater, New Jersey.....................................62 Conversion to Medical and Mixed-Use – Holmdel, New Jersey ......................................62 Conversion to Medical Use – Middleton, New Jersey .....................................................63 Addition of Retail, Hotels and Apartments – Marlborough, Massachusetts ..................63 Repositioning Office Parks ..................................................................................................63 Retail and Hotel Addition with Walkable Infrastructure, Burlington, Massachusetts .63 Addition of Retail, Hotel and Housing, Structured Parking – Henrico County, Virginia ..........................................................................................................................................64 Recommendations ................................................................................................................66 Enhance Office Environments to Improve Competitiveness ...........................................67 Reduce the Supply of Non-Competitive Space .................................................................68 Increase Demand ..............................................................................................................69 Setting Priorities ..................................................................................................................71 ii Prepared by Washington, DC-based Partners for Economic Solutions (PES) for the Montgomery County Planning Department, this in-depth market study examines the many forces changing the regional office market, current conditions in the county and best practices for office development. The goal of the research is to better understand the unprecedented challenges confronting the market, including changing tenant preferences, high vacancies, flat rents and slow absorption of new and relet space. While these trends partly reflect a still-recovering economy, the Washington, DC region has been especially hard hit by cuts in federal government spending and leasing. (Second Quarter, 2015) A total of 71.5 million square feet of office space currently is vacant throughout the Washington, DC region. With 20 million square feet of vacant office space, Fairfax County accounts for the largest share (28 percent) of vacancies region-wide. The District of Columbia has the second highest share (22 percent), with 15.6 million square feet. Montgomery County has nearly 11 million square feet of vacant office space, accounting for 15 percent of regional vacancies. Prince George’s County has 7 percent of the region’s vacant office space. In Montgomery County, 12 office buildings totaling 2.1 million square feet of space are completely vacant. Eight more buildings totaling 1.2 million square feet will become vacant this year. Seven relatively small office buildings totaling 400,000 square feet are now under construction in the county. Region-wide, 33 office buildings totaling 7.3 million square feet are under construction. iii Most jobs created during the economic recovery have been in restaurants, retailers and health care facilities, rather than in office-based sectors such as professional and technical services. Telecommuting, technological advances, more efficient work spaces and practices such as hoteling have enabled office tenants to reduce their square footage even as they expand their workforce. The most successful office clusters in Montgomery County are part of mixed-use developments with a strong sense of place and a quality environment. Transit connectivity is increasingly important to office tenants. This trend is consistent with recommended land use strategies in recent County plans for White Flint, Bethesda, White Oak and other communities. Single-use office developments without convenient transit or highway access are having difficulty in attracting tenants.
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