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European Hub Airports – Assessment of Constraints for Market Power in the Local Catchment and on the Transfer Market

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European Hub Airports – Assessment of Constraints for Market Power in the Local Catchment and on the Transfer Market Technische Universität Dresden Fakultät Verkehrswissenschaften „Friedrich List” Institut für Wirtschaft und Verkehr DISSERTATION European Hub Airports – Assessment of Constraints for Market Power in the Local Catchment and on the Transfer Market zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades Doctor rerum politicarum (Dr. rer. pol.) im Rahmen des Promotionsverfahrens an der Fakultät Verkehrswissenschaften „Friedrich List“ der Technischen Universität Dresden vorgelegt von: Annika Paul, geb. Reinhold geb. am 30.09.1981 in Gifhorn Gutachter: Prof. Dr. rer. pol. habil. Bernhard Wieland Prof. Dr. rer. pol. Hans-Martin Niemeier Ort und Tage der Einreichung: Dresden, 23. Januar 2018 Ort und Tag der Verteidigung: Dresden, 04. Juni 2018 Abstract Airports have long been considered as an industry in which firms are able to exert significant market power. Nowadays, there is controversial discussion whether airports face a degree of competition which is sufficient to constrain potentially abusive behaviour resulting from this market power. The level of competition encountered by European airports has hence been evaluated by analysing the switching potential of both airlines and passengers between different airports, for example. The research within this thesis contributes to the field of airport competition by analysing the degree of potential competition 36 European hub airports face on their origin-destination market in their local catchments as well as on the transfer market within the period from 2000 to 2016. For this purpose, a two-step approach is applied for each market, with first analysing the degree of market concentration, using the Herfindahl Hirschman Index as a measure, for each destination offered at the hub airports and the respective development over time. In the second step, the effect of market concentration on the seat capacities at the hub airports is estimated. This analysis shows that the majority of European hub airports has a dominant position on both the origin-destination and transfer market. However, it can be observed that the level of market concentration has been decreasing over time, thus implying a higher overlap between destinations offered at hub airports and their competitive counterparts. Passengers thus have more alternatives available when travelling between two points, this increasing switching ability therefore imposes potential constraints on airport market power. In the second step of the analysis, the above approach is complemented by empirically estimating the impact of an increase in market concentration, and additional factors such as the presence of low cost carriers at competing airports, on the seat capacities offered on a particular destination. Using panel data for the considered time period, the statistically significant results show that an increase in market concentration leads to a decrease in the amount of seats as well the flight frequencies offered to a destination. These findings are coherent for both the origin-destination and transfer market. Considering the decrease in market concentration across the majority of European hub airports, it can in turn be inferred that more seats and frequencies are supplied on the respective routes, resulting in an increase in consumer welfare. This approach and the respective findings in this thesis serve as further guidance to policy makers deciding on the extent of economic regulation feasible for individual hub airports in Europe. From an airport and airline standpoint these results can, of course, also be applied to gain insight as to which airports are their main competitors, and which routes face a high overlap with other airports and airlines, thus designing their network structure accordingly. Acknowledgements Thank you for accompanying me along my PhD research. Prof. Dr. Bernhard Wieland who gave me the opportunity to pursue my interest in the field of transport economics by accepting me as a PhD student and who guided my work with very helpful and constructive support. Prof. Dr. Hans-Martin Niemeier for his encouragement and great scientific guidance during the course of my dissertation, and for awakening my interest for aviation in the first place when I started as a young student. Prof. Dr. Mirko Hornung and Insa Ottensmann for their continuous support of, and trust in, my work at Bauhaus Luftfahrt and for creating an open and interdisciplinary working environment that fostered my PhD research to a large extent. The Erich-Becker-Stiftung for providing me with a research grant that allowed me to dive deep into the world of airport competition. The TUD COST Action Air Transport and Regional Development (ATARD) as well as Prof. Dr. Benny Mantin for enabling a productive time during my short-term scientific mission at the Luxembourg Centre for Logistics and Supply Chain Management. The German Aviation Research Society (G.A.R.S.), particularly Prof. Dr. Peter Forsyth, for helpful reviews of my research and valuable discussions on relevant topics during several workshops. My colleagues and friends Anne, Mara, Ulrike, Marcia, Arne, Juli, Dori, Eva and Lisa for sharing the ups and downs of working on a dissertation, and for ensuring the right balance between work and life. And the team at Bauhaus Luftfahrt, especially Kay, Raoul, Anna, Milena, for an inspiring, challenging and fun environment to work in. My parents, my brother and my grandparents for inspiring me with their dedication and passion in life, and their unconditional support and love. And Richard, thank you for being you. Table of Contents Abstract iii Acknowledgements v Table of Contents vii Figures xi Tables xiii Abbreviations xv Nomenclature xxi Introduction 1 Theoretical Foundations for the Assessment of Market Power 9 Market power and rationale for economic regulation 9 2.1.1 The economic theory of natural monopolies 10 2.1.2 Potential barriers to entry 15 Approaches towards the assessment of market power 24 2.2.1 Developments regarding the assessment of market power 25 2.2.2 Definition of the relevant market and concentration analysis 35 Market Structure of the Airport Industry 45 Airport market structure 47 3.1.1 Vertical relationship between airports and airlines 47 3.1.2 Specifics of airline hub-and-spoke networks 53 3.1.3 Airline and passenger choice factors 57 Table of Contents Market power assessment in the (European) airport industry 60 3.2.1 Current assessment of market power in the airport industry 61 3.2.2 Research focus and considered dataset of European hub airports 66 Competition in the Local Catchment of European Hub Airports 73 European hub airports and their local catchment 74 4.1.1 Definition of relevant catchment areas 75 4.1.2 Development of European hub airports within their catchment 79 Analysis of market concentration at European hub airports 83 4.2.1 Development of aggregated market concentration 83 4.2.2 Analysis of market concentration on the route-level 92 4.2.3 Adjusting the Herfindahl Hirschman Index for distance 102 Empirical analysis 106 4.3.1 Selection of variables 107 4.3.2 Model specification 111 4.3.3 Effects of market concentration on airport output 117 4.3.4 Impact of low cost carrier presence in the catchment area 126 4.3.5 Impact of rail services on the short-haul segment 129 Assessing potential competition in the catchment of European hub airports 132 Competition for Transfer Traffic at European Hub Airports 137 Network carrier share at European hub airports 139 Methodological approaches to measure connectivity 143 5.2.1 Overview of methodologies to measure transfer connections 144 5.2.2 Current assessment of the transfer market at airports 147 Market concentration on the transfer market 153 5.3.1 The market for transfer connections at European hub airports 153 5.3.2 Analysis of market concentration for individual transfer connections 162 5.3.3 Analysis of market concentration for region-specific transfer markets 167 Empirical analysis 172 5.4.1 Selection of variables 173 viii Table of Contents 5.4.2 Model specification 177 5.4.3 Effects of market concentration on connectivity levels 178 Assessing potential competition on the transfer market at European hub airports 181 Conclusion 185 References 199 Appendix 219 Catchment areas of European hub airports 219 Mean HHIroute for European hub airports 220 Overview low cost carriers 221 Sensitivity analysis of threshold in HHIdist calculation 223 Network carrier at European hub airports 224 Common ownership within the catchment 226 Airline countervailing power 227 Airline alliance members 228 Overview OAG regions 230 Number of transfer connections at European hub airports 231 Regional shares on the transfer market 232 ix Figures Figure 1: Airport market segments ......................................................................................... 2 Figure 2: Monopoly profit maximisation ............................................................................. 10 Figure 3: Natural monopoly in the single-product case ....................................................... 13 Figure 4: Overview of potential advantages for incumbent firms ........................................ 16 Figure 5: Vertical foreclosure ............................................................................................... 21 Figure 6: Assessment of market power ................................................................................ 25 Figure 7: The Structure-Conduct-Performance paradigm in Industrial Organisation .......... 26 Figure 8: Local catchment of London Heathrow Airport ....................................................
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