MASON-DIXON® VIRGINIA POLL
DECEMBER 2018 Polling in Virginia since 1984
EMBARGO: Newspaper Publication - Thursday, December 20, 2018 Broadcast & Internet Release – 6 am EST, Thursday December 20, 2018
© Copyright 2018
1 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – December 2018 Virginia Poll
VOTERS GIVE NORTHAM & WARNER HIGH RATINGS, BUT NOT TRUMP VIRGINIA LOOKS BLUE FOR 2020
President Donald Trump continues to remain unpopular in Virginia. Statewide, only 41% approve of his performance in office, while 53% disapprove and 6% are not sure.
TRUMP JOB RATING
6% 41% APPROVE 53% DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
By comparison, Democratic Senator Mark Warner, who will likely be on the same election ballot as Trump in 2020, receives a positive job rating. Statewide, 65% approve of Warner’s performance. Democratic Governor Ralph Northam also gets solid marks, with a 56% approval rating.
NORTHAM JOB RATING WARNER JOB RATING
14% 6%
APPROVE 29% APPROVE 30% 56% DISAPPROVE 65% DISAPPROVE NOT SURE NOT SURE
2 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – December 2018 Virginia Poll
Looking ahead to 2020, it appears Democrats will continue their statewide winning streak. Only 42% of state voters say they will vote to “re-elect” Trump, while 52% indicate they will vote to replace him with a Democrat.
On the other hand, 55% of voters are currently inclined to “re-elect” Democrat Warner to the Senate and only 37% say they will vote to replace him with a Republican.
TRUMP 2020 VOTE WARNER 2020 VOTE
6% 8%
42% RE-ELECT RE-ELECT 37% 52% REPLACE 55% REPLACE NOT SURE NOT SURE
3 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – December 2018 Virginia Poll
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump’s job performance as president?
APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
STATE 41% 53% 6%
REGION APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
Northern Virginia 26% 67% 7% Shenandoah/Piedmont 52% 44% 4% Richmond Metro 40% 52% 8% Hampton Roads 37% 58% 5% Lynchburg/Southside 55% 40% 5% Roanoke/Southwest 59% 34% 7%
SEX APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
Men 48% 45% 7% Women 35% 60% 5%
AGE APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
<50 35% 59% 6% 50+ 46% 48% 6%
RACE APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
White 51% 42% 7% Black 10% 87% 3%
PARTY ID APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
Democrat 7% 88% 5% Republican 89% 6% 5% Independent 41% 51% 8%
4 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – December 2018 Virginia Poll
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of Ralph Northam’s job performance as governor?
APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
STATE 56% 30% 14%
REGION APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
Northern Virginia 65% 21% 14% Shenandoah/Piedmont 48% 36% 16% Richmond Metro 61% 27% 12% Hampton Roads 66% 23% 11% Lynchburg/Southside 44% 37% 19% Roanoke/Southwest 39% 46% 15%
SEX APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
Men 53% 33% 14% Women 59% 37% 14%
AGE APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
<50 59% 26% 15% 50+ 53% 33% 14%
RACE APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
White 49% 37% 14% Black 78% 7% 15%
PARTY ID APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
Democrat 76% 10% 14% Republican 32% 55% 13% Independent 54% 31% 15%
5 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – December 2018 Virginia Poll
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of Mark Warner’s job performance as Virginia’s U.S. Senator?
APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
STATE 65% 29% 6%
REGION APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
Northern Virginia 74% 22% 4% Shenandoah/Piedmont 57% 36% 7% Richmond Metro 61% 31% 8% Hampton Roads 74% 20% 6% Lynchburg/Southside 56% 37% 7% Roanoke/Southwest 57% 36% 7%
SEX APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
Men 57% 36% 7% Women 72% 23% 5%
AGE APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
<50 71% 20% 9% 50+ 60% 36% 4%
RACE APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
White 56% 37% 7% Black 93% 4% 3%
PARTY ID APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE
Democrat 91% 7% 2% Republican 35% 56% 9% Independent 61% 30% 9%
6 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – December 2018 Virginia Poll
QUESTION: If the 2020 election for president were held today, would you vote to re-elect Republican Donald Trump or would you vote to replace Trump with a Democrat?
RE-ELECT REPLACE NOT SURE
STATE 42% 52% 6%
REGION RE-ELECT REPLACE NOT SURE
Northern Virginia 30% 63% 7% Shenandoah/Piedmont 55% 38% 7% Richmond Metro 42% 54% 4% Hampton Roads 39% 54% 7% Lynchburg/Southside 51% 44% 5% Roanoke/Southwest 54% 41% 5%
SEX RE-ELECT REPLACE NOT SURE
Men 48% 47% 5% Women 37% 56% 7%
AGE RE-ELECT REPLACE NOT SURE
<50 38% 54% 8% 50+ 46% 50% 4%
RACE RE-ELECT REPLACE NOT SURE
White 51% 42% 7% Black 13% 85% 2%
PARTY ID RE-ELECT REPLACE NOT SURE
Democrat 7% 91% 2% Republican 88% 8% 4% Independent 44% 41% 15%
7 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – December 2018 Virginia Poll
QUESTION: If the 2020 election for Virginia’s U.S. Senate seat were held today, would you vote to re-elect Democrat Mark Warner or would you vote to replace Warner with a Republican?
RE-ELECT REPLACE NOT SURE
STATE 55% 37% 8%
REGION RE-ELECT REPLACE NOT SURE
Northern Virginia 67% 25% 8% Shenandoah/Piedmont 45% 46% 9% Richmond Metro 52% 38% 10% Hampton Roads 62% 29% 9% Lynchburg/Southside 47% 48% 5% Roanoke/Southwest 44% 50% 6%
SEX RE-ELECT REPLACE NOT SURE
Men 48% 42% 10% Women 61% 33% 6%
AGE RE-ELECT REPLACE NOT SURE
<50 60% 34% 6% 50+ 51% 40% 9%
RACE RE-ELECT REPLACE NOT SURE
White 46% 46% 8% Black 83% 8% 9%
PARTY ID RE-ELECT REPLACE NOT SURE
Democrat 92% 6% 2% Republican 7% 80% 13% Independent 53% 36% 11%
8 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – December 2018 Virginia Poll
HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED
This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida from December 14 through December 18, 2018. A total of 625 registered Virginia voters were interviewed statewide by telephone.
Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Virginia voter registration list that included both land-line and cell phone numbers. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter registration by county.
The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping
9 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – December 2018 Virginia Poll
DEMOGRAPHICS
PARTY REGISTRATION:
Democrat 255 (41%) Republican 190 (30%) Independent or Other 180 (29%)
AGE: 18-34 107 (17%) 35-49 170 (27%) 50-64 193 (31%) 65+ 149 (24%) Refused 6 (1%)
RACE/ETHNICITY: White/Caucasian 425 (68%) Black/African American 130 (21%) Hispanic 32 (5%) Other 28 (4%) Refused 10 (2%)
SEX: Male 299 (48%) Female 326 (52%)
REGION: Northern Virginia 170 (27%) Shenandoah/Piedmont 95 (15%) Richmond Metro 90 (14%) Hampton Roads 125 (20%) Lynchburg/Southside 75 (12%) Roanoke/Southwest 70 (11%)
10 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – December 2018 Virginia Poll
VIRGINIA POLL REGIONS
NORTHERN VIRGINIA: Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William counties and the independent cities of Alexandria, Fairfax, Falls Church, Manassas and Manassas Park.
SHENANDOAH/PIEDMONT: Stafford, Spotsylvania, King George, Caroline, Louisa, Fluvanna, Albemarle, Nelson, Greene, Orange, Madison, Culpepper, Fauquier, Rappahannock, Clarke, Frederick, Warren, Shenandoah, Page, Rockingham, Augusta and Rockbridge counties and the independent cities of Charlottesville, Fredericksburg, Staunton, Harrisonburg, Winchester, Waynesboro, Staunton, Buena Vista and Lexington.
RICHMOND METRO: Chesterfield, Henrico, Hanover, Powhatan, Goochland, New Kent and Charles City counties and the independent cities of Richmond and Colonial Heights.
HAMPTON ROADS: Accomack, Northampton, Northumberland, Westmoreland, Lancaster, Middlesex, Mathews, Richmond, Essex, King & Queen, King William, Gloucester, James City and York counties and the independent cities of Williamsburg, Newport News, Hampton, Poquoson, Norfolk, Portsmouth, Virginia Beach, Chesapeake and Suffolk.
LYNCHBURG/SOUTHSIDE: Isle of Wight, Sussex, Surry, Southampton, Greensville, Dinwiddie, Prince George, Brunswick, Mecklenburg, Lunenburg, Nottoway, Amelia, Prince Edward, Cumberland, Buckingham, Appomattox, Amherst, Campbell, Charlotte, Halifax, Pittsylvania, Henry, Franklin and Bedford counties and the independent cities of Petersburg, Hopewell, Franklin, Emporia, Danville, Martinsville, Lynchburg and Bedford.
ROANOKE/SOUTHWEST: Highland, Bath, Alleghany, Botetourt, Roanoke, Craig, Montgomery, Floyd, Patrick, Giles, Pulaski, Carroll, Grayson, Wythe, Bland, Tazewell, Smyth, Washington, Buchanan, Dickenson, Russell, Wise, Scott and Lee counties and the independent cities of Roanoke, Salem, Radford, Covington, Galax, Norton and Bristol.
11 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – December 2018 Virginia Poll