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Use of Theses THESES SIS/LIBRARY TELEPHONE: +61 2 6125 4631 R.G. MENZIES LIBRARY BUILDING NO:2 FACSIMILE: +61 2 6125 4063 THE AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL UNIVERSITY EMAIL: [email protected] CANBERRA ACT 0200 AUSTRALIA USE OF THESES This copy is supplied for purposes of private study and research only. Passages from the thesis may not be copied or closely paraphrased without the written consent of the author. Threats, Media Coverage and Public Perceptions of Foreign Nations in Japan A thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy of The Australian National University. Matthew Linley Crawford School of Economics and Government September 2009 Declaration I declare that this thesis is my own work and has not been submitted in any form for another degree or diploma at any university or other institute of tertiary education. Where information has been obtained from other publications of my own, published both individually and jointly, appropriate referencing has been given. All other information obtained from the published and unpublished work of other authors has been acknowledged in the text, and a full list of references is given. Matthew Linley 15 September 2009 Horiuchi and the rest of her family for their dinners, barbeques, and wonderful memories. Thank you all so much for making my time in Canberra so rich and fulfilling. The fellow students who made my time at the ANU so enjoyable are numerous. I especially wish to thank Adam Johns, Francis Hutchinson, Jaya Pillai, Justin Whitney and Scott Brenton. Though we all live in different parts of the world today, I continue to treasure their friendship andcoften look back on our days at Graduate House and the Sir Roland Wilson Building with great fondness. The following organisations made my doctoral study possible through their financial support. The Crawford School of Economics and Government at the ANU provided me with a generous scholarship and support for my field research throughout the period of my study. This research would not have been possible without the support of the Japan Foundation's Japan Studies Fellowship. The Office of the Vice-Chancellor of the ANU provided me with financial assistance to take courses in quantitative research methods at the University of Michigan. The School of Political Science and Economics at Waseda University took me in as a student and provided me with an office during my fieldwork. I am very grateful to all of these institutions and feel fortunate to have received their generous support. I also want to thank Dr Phil Deans of Temple University Japan who entrusted me with a teaching position even before I had completed this dissertation. I thank Ms Wendy Noble from the Crawford School of Economics and Government who helped me down the final stretch in writing up and I am grateful to Ms Maxine McArthur who provided the copyediting of this thesis. I also thank my parents, Collin and Rosalind Linley, for their continued love and support over the years, even when they thought that their son's education would never end. iv Finally, I owe a great debt of gratitude to my wonderful wife, Yae. Without her love and support, this dissertation would be nothing more than a few scribbled notes on a pad of paper. She has patiently waited for me, never complaining and put up with more than any wife of a PhD student should have to. Thank you. v The empirical analysis is conducted in three sections. First, using a cross-sectional time-series regression analysis with fixed effects, a negative relationship is found between changes in the attitudes of respondents from the Jiji polls in a particular month and the presence of a threat. A negative relationship is also found in changes in attitudes and media coverage of each type of threat, suggesting an interaction effect where higher media coverage of an issue is associated with changes of greater magnitude. Second, through a series of case studies of realistic threats; symbolic threats; and threats to national identity, a correlation is found between many, though not all, such issues and events and negative changes in public perceptions of the foreign nation in the same month. A closer examination finds that in many months in which public attitudes did change, elite and media rhetoric framing an issue as a threat were also present. Finally, I examine long-term trends in public attitudes towards the ten nations in the Jiji polls and find greater levels of stability towards nations that I assume are not salient to the Japanese public and greater evidence of change in those which I assume are. Overall, this study finds evidence that Japanese public opinion is stable over long periods of time and, although abrupt changes do occur, they tend to be small in magnitude, short-term and are associated mainly with those issues and events perceived as threats. This corresponds with the findings of researchers in the United States who have found that public opinion about foreign policy is relatively rational. viii Analysis .......................................................................................................................... 58 4. Perceived Threats, Media Coverage and Monthly Changes in Public Perceptions of a Foreign Nation in Japan, 1960-2007 ............................................................................ 61 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 61 Theoretical Propositions ................................................................................................ 62 Review ofMeasures and Methods ................................................................................ 63 Threats and Public Perceptions ofForeign Nations .................................................... 66 Threats and Media Coverage ........................................................................................ 69 The Effect of Threats and Media Coverage on Changes in Public Perceptions of Foreign Nations ............................................................................................................. 71 The Effect ofRealistic Threats, Symbolic Threats, Threats to Japanese Identity, Media Coverage on Public Perceptions ofForeign Nations ........................................ 73 Discussion ....................................................................................................................... 77 5. Realistic Threats to Japan and Public Perceptions of Foreign Nations ................... 81 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 81 Hypotheses ..................................................................................................................... 82 Economic Disputes......................................................................................................... 83 Violations ofNational Sovereignty ............................................................................... 97 Threats to National Security ...................................................................................... 111 Conclusion .................................................................................................................... 121 6. Symbolic Threats to Japan and Public Perceptions of Foreign Nations ................. 123 Introduction .................................................................................................................. 123 Hypotheses ................................................................................................................... 126 Nuclear Testing............................................................................................................ 127 Use ofMilitary Force ................................................................................................... 135 X 'table of contents declaration ............................................................................... ~ .................................... .ii acknowledgements......................................................................................................... iii. abstract........................................................................................................................... vii· table ofcontents.............................................................................................................. ix list oftables .................................................................................................................. xiii list offigures ................................................................................................................. xiv list ofappendices .......................................................................................................... xvi 1. Introduction .............................................................................................................. 1 Japanese Public Opinion about China ................................ ; .......................................... 1 Statement of the Problem ............................................................................................... 4 Argument and Theoretical Framework ......................................................................... 6 Data and Methods ........................................................................................................... 8 Significance ofStudy ..................................................................................................... 11 Roadmap
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