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Mideast Security and Policy Studies No. 185 the BEGIN-SADAT CENTER for STRATEGIC STUDIES BAR-ILAN UNIVERSITY Mideast Security and Policy Studies No Iran’s Killing Machine: Political Assassinations by the Islamic Regime Khoshnood, Ardavan Published in: Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, Mideast Security and Policy Studies 2020 Document Version: Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Link to publication Citation for published version (APA): Khoshnood, A. (2020). Iran’s Killing Machine: Political Assassinations by the Islamic Regime. Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, Mideast Security and Policy Studies, (185). https://besacenter.org/mideast-security- and-policy-studies/iran-political-assassinations/ Total number of authors: 1 General rights Unless other specific re-use rights are stated the following general rights apply: Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. • Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. • You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal Read more about Creative commons licenses: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/ Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. LUND UNIVERSITY PO Box 117 221 00 Lund +46 46-222 00 00 Iran’s Killing Machine: Political Assassinations by the Islamic Regime Ardavan Khoshnood Mideast Security and Policy Studies No. 185 THE BEGIN-SADAT CENTER FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES BAR-ILAN UNIVERSITY Mideast Security and Policy Studies No. 185 Iran’s Killing Machine: Political Assassinations by the Islamic Regime Ardavan Khoshnood Iran’s Killing Machine: Political Assassinations by the Islamic Regime Ardavan Khoshnood © The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies Bar-Ilan University Ramat Gan 5290002 Israel Tel. 972-3-5318959 Fax. 972-3-5359195 [email protected] www.besacenter.org ISSN 0793-1042 December 2020 Cover image: Graves of Iranian opposition leaders Fattah Abdoli, Sadegh Sharafkandi, and Homayoun Ardalan, three victims of the Mykonos Restaurant assassinations, in the Père Lachaise Cemetery (Paris), image via Wikipedia The Begin-Sadat (BESA) Center for Strategic Studies The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies is an independent, non-partisan think tank conducting policy-relevant research on Middle Eastern and global strategic affairs, particularly as they relate to the national security and foreign policy of Israel and regional peace and stability. It is named in memory of Menachem Begin and Anwar Sadat, whose efforts in pursuing peace laid the cornerstone for conflict resolution in the Middle East. BESA Perspectives are short pieces on timely and fundamental Israeli, Middle Eastern, and global issues. Mideast Security and Policy Studies serve as a forum for publication or re-publication of research conducted by BESA associates. Colloquia on Strategy and Diplomacy summarize the papers delivered at conferences and seminars held by the Center for the academic, military, official, and general publics. In sponsoring these discussions, the BESA Center aims to stimulate public debate on, and consideration of, contending approaches to problems of peace and war in the Middle East. The Policy Memorandum series consists of policy-oriented papers. Publication of a work by BESA signifies that it is deemed worthy of public consideration but does not imply endorsement of the author’s views or conclusions. A list of recent BESA Center publications can be found at the end of this booklet. International Advisory Board Founder of the Center and Chairman of the Advisory Board: Dr. Thomas O. Hecht Vice Chairman: Mr. Saul Koschitzky Members: Ms. Marion Hecht, Mr. Robert Hecht, Prof. Riva Heft-Hecht, Mr. Joel Koschitzky, Amb. Yitzhak Levanon, Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman, Mr. Robert K. Lifton, Rt. Hon. Brian Mulroney, Mr. Seymour D. Reich, Mr. Greg Rosshandler, Amb. Zalman Shoval, Amb. Norman Spector, Ms. Drorit Wertheim International Academic Advisory Board Prof. Ian Beckett University of Kent, Prof. Eliot A. Cohen Johns Hopkins University, Prof. Irwin Cotler McGill University, Prof. Steven R. David Johns Hopkins University, Prof. Lawrence Freedman King’s College, Prof. Patrick James University of Southern California, Dr. Martin Kramer Shalem College, Prof. Robert J. Lieber Georgetown University, Prof. Michael Mandelbaum Johns Hopkins University Research Staff BESA Center Director: Prof. Efraim Karsh Research Associates: Mr. Emil Avdaliani, Dr. Efrat Aviv, Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Shaul Bartal, Mr. Edwin Black, Dr. Yael Bloch-Elkon, Col. (res.) Dr. Raphael Bouchnik-Chen, Brig. Gen. (res.) Moni Chorev, Dr. Edy Cohen, Dr. James Dorsey, Dr. Gil Feiler, Prof. Jonathan Fox, Prof. Hillel Frisch, Dr. Manfred Gerstenfeld, Prof. Eytan Gilboa, Dr. Gabriel Glickman, Maj. Gen. (res.) Gershon Hacohen, Col. (res.) Aby Har-Even, Dr. Eado Hecht, Dr. Tsilla Hershco, Dr. Doron Itzchakov, Dr. Alex Joffe, Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Mordechai Kedar, Mr. Yaakov Lappin, Prof. Udi Lebel, Dr. Alon Levkowitz, Prof. Ze’ev Maghen, Dr. Mark Meirowitz, Ambassador Arye Mekel, Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Raphael Ofek, Mr. Amir Rapaport, Dr. Asaf Romirowsky, Col. (res.) Dr. Uzi Rubin, Prof. Jonathan Rynhold, Prof. Shmuel Sandler, Dr. Yechiel Shabiy, Dr. Eitan Shamir, Lt. Col. (res.) Dr. Dany Shoham, Prof. Shlomo Shpiro, Prof. Joshua Teitelbaum, Dr. George N. Tzogopoulos, Dr. Jiri Valenta, Dr. Albert Wolf Program Coordinator: Alona Briner Publications Editor (English): Judith Levy Iran’s Killing Machine: Political Assassinations by the Islamic Regime Ardavan Khoshnood EXECUTIVE SUMMARY It was recently revealed that the Iranian regime was planning to assassinate the US ambassador to South Africa. Tehran denied any such plans, but a brief look at the Islamic regime’s history shows that Iran not only has the will but also the means to conduct assassinations on foreign soil. Assassinations and terrorism have been the regime’s modus operandi both at home and abroad ever since the establishment of the Islamic Republic of Iran in 1979. Four institutions in Iran are instrumental to the decision- making, organizing, and execution of subversive operations, especially those conducted on foreign soil: the Office of the Supreme Leader, the Supreme Council of National Security, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and the Ministry of Intelligence. It is above all with the assistance of its diplomatic corps that Iran puts its subversive plans into action. Terrorist attacks and assassinations have been conducted around the world by Iranian operatives or proxies in close conjunction with Iranian diplomats and Iranian embassies. Many of the targets have been Israeli and Saudi diplomats. The recent allegation that the Iranian regime is targeting the US ambassador to South Africa is credible, as such an operation is entirely consistent with Iranian tactics. As Iranian operatives and intelligence officers are highly active in South Africa, it is no surprise that the US embassy in Pretoria has been targeted. Dr. Ardavan Khoshnood, a non-resident Associate at the BESA Center, is a Criminologist and Political Scientist with a degree in Intelligence Analysis. He is also an Associate Professor of Emergency Medicine at Lund University in Sweden. @ardavank MIDEAST SECURITY AND POLICY STUDIES I 5 In the wake of the slaying of Quds Force chief Qassem Soleimani, there has been significant pressure on the Iranian regime to retaliate. It is of foremost importance to the regime that its supporters—the physical base of the state—be satisfied. As the regime is not able to target notable American generals and statesmen, it will instead target US ambassadors, diplomats, and embassies. At the same time, the regime will continue its attacks on countries it deems to be enemies of the Islamic revolution: namely, Israel and Saudi Arabia. Iran’s Killing Machine: Political Assassinations by the Islamic Regime Ardavan Khoshnood Not long ago, Politico published an exclusive item stating that the Islamic Republic of Iran was plotting to assassinate US ambassador to South Africa Lana Marks. According to US intelligence, an Iranian threat against Marks is known to have existed since the spring of 2020. The South African intelligence organization, the State Security Agency (SSA), stated said that it has no knowledge of any assassination plans. In typical fashion, Tehran vehemently denied the existence of such plans. Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Saeed Khatibzadeh added that the claim of an Iranian assassination attempt was part of “the Trump administration’s counter-intelligence campaign against Iran.” It is impossible to know whether the American intelligence reports are correct or on what they are based. But a review of the history and style of the Islamic Republic of Iran can provide some indication of whether the Iranian regime is either willing or able to attack foreign diplomats abroad. This is of particular interest with respect to South Africa, where the Iranian regime and its operatives are highly active. The regime’s first international assassination was conducted very soon after the establishment of the Islamic Republic in April 1979. On December 7 of the same year, Prince Shahriar Shafigh, a captain of the Imperial
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