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thereport ISSUE 426 | 19 DECEMBER 2019

From Apple to , via , TikTok, , publishers, Africa, YouTube, Artificial Intelligence and much, much more…

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ISSUE 426 END-OF-YEAR REPORT 19.12.19 In this report Introduction Page 01 Page 18 Introduction 21 Green shoots for hi-res Page 02–03 22 Heavy lifting ahead for Pandora 01 On the up Page 19 Page 04 23 New levels for games and music 02 The TL;DR of the ECD and MMA 24 LatAm’s stars are truly global Page 05 Page 20 03 Spotify’s two-sided strategy 25 Old Town Road rewrites the rules Page 06 26 Privacy matters – including for music 04 heading for super-bundle Page 21 Page 07 27 Taylor’s Wizard of Oz moment 05 China: music in the hands 28 Distribution’s evolution 06 Voice smarts still developing Page 22 Page 08 29 Catalogue shopping booms 07 TikTok: it don’t stop 30 Middle Eastern promise is clear The ’s decline is receding Page 09 Page 23 08 Everyone loves podcasts 31 ’s voice grows stronger into the past, but challenges remain 09 UMG meets Page 24 Page 10 32 Action, not just talk, for user-centric music:)ally was founded in 2002, at a time how startup-friendly they are; new markets 10 Publishers get punchy payouts when the music industry was just a few years are burgeoning; and new opportunities Page 11 Page 25 into its post- decline, but when the emerging. 11 ’s fluid 33 Pledges broken mood was already pessimistic and fearful. That said, this industry still has its fair 12 Boomplay signifies Africa’s ambition Page 26 That’s one reason why music:)ally share of controversies and pitfalls. Creator Page 12 34 The rise of ‘Trigger Cities’ was founded: to explore the constructive royalties worries; licensing disputes (and 13 sets its sights on the top 10 35 Fake music, real concerns (rather than destructive) potential of new lawsuits); arguments about the ‘value gap Page 13 Page 27 technologies for music companies and and other things keeping life… interesting. 14 Progress on diversity 36 Scalping the scalpers musicians, in the face of rapidly-spreading This is music:)ally’s annual end-of-year Page 14 Page 28 existential dread. report, exploring all sides of the industry’s 15 Spotify and Apple’s antitrust battle 37 Piracy, schmiracy! Some 17 years on, the picture is very continued evolution. Just like in our early Page 15 38 Don’t boo the blockchain different. A sustained bounce-back for days, we’re constructive and curious about 16 Artists play with AI music Page 29 recorded music has been accompanied the positive trends, while not ducking the 17 ’s streaming transition continues 39 press on by continued growth in the live sector; a thornier challenges. Page 16 40 Attribution or retribution? bull market for acquisitions of publishing Oh, and if you’re wondering why we’ve 18 K-Pop makes waves globally Page 30 catalogues; and regular new milestones for chosen 42 of those trends? As keen readers 19 AR hotter than VR... for now 41 A Blizzard of Data

report collecting society income and payouts. of Douglas Adams will know, 42 is the Page 17 42 The climate emergency Accelerators are accelerating; major answer to life, the universe and everything. 20 YouTube finds its feet labels are falling over themselves to declare Grab your towel and dive in! :) the 2

ISSUE 426 END-OF-YEAR REPORT 19.12.19 1 On the up Photo: Pablo Heimplatz on Unsplash arring a major surprise, 2019 will be welcoming words for innovation, and the the fifth straight year of growth for process of turning that encouragement into the global recorded music industry. actual deals. Over those five years, its annual rev- Benues have grown from $14.2bn to $19.1bn, taking it almost back to its 2004 level. If 2019 can match last year’s 9.7% growth, we could be talking about $21bn this year. The indications are good, from the quarterly figures published so far this year by the major labels, to the RIAA’s mid-year stats showing 16% growth for the US recorded- music market, via record-setting revenues for collecting societies and steady subscriber growth for the big, global streaming services. We’re still a way off the revenues that the industry was recording in the peak-CD Another is the tension and suspicion that pre-Napster era, but Goldman Sachs is can still drive the industry’s perception of the predicting that streaming alone will be worth motivations of music streaming services. Is $37.2bn a year to the industry by 2030, while Spotify’s push just a way to drive Midia Research reckons consumer-spending down music royalties? Will music lose out in on streaming (as opposed to trade revenues) multi-media bundles? Should DSPs be doing could reach $45.3bn by 2026. We’re also starting to see real momentum “We should never be complacent and more to reverse falling average revenue per One of 2019’s most positive trends has in territories like Latin America, China, India think that happy days are here to stay. user (ARPU) and restrict family plans? been the figures coming out of markets and southeast Asia, as well as some positive You should always be looking to evolve, to There are real concerns here that should that were either slow to benefit from the early-shoots in Africa. Without wishing to anticipate the needs of the market and the be taken seriously, but they can sometimes streaming upswing, or those that have go overboard on the back-slapping, this is changes in the market and to serve your feel like they’re coming from a position of experienced bumps along the way. all the fruits of some hard work put in by audience and serve your fans,” Warner distrust: that DSPs’ motivations and/or France, for example, only saw 1.8% rightsholders and DSPs alike over the past Music Group’s Stu Bergen (pictured right) perception of the value of music may not be growth in its recorded market in 2018, decade. told us in April, as the IFPI announced its aligned perfectly with the music industry and but then 12.7% growth in the first half of It’s also, as people have been latest figures. its creators. 2019. In , revenues fell slightly dutifully pointing out, not a moment for There remain some important challenges. That’s why you hear quotes like this, from in 2018 but grew by 7.9% in the first half complacency. With money flowing in to the Our recent report where startups shared WMG boss Steve Cooper in May: “We’re

report of 2019. Spain, meanwhile, saw 5.9% industry, it’s a time for bold investments their experiences of working with major going to continue to push back against the growth in 2018 trumped by a 27% spike in in artists and technologies alike; for labels shone a light on the mismatches that devaluation of our artists’ and ’ the first half of 2019. experimentation, not caution. can still emerge between rightsholders’ music from freemium models, mismanaged the 3

ISSUE 426 19.12.19 END-OF-YEAR REPORT

On the up... continued

well as the top stars and the rightsholders, Source: IFPI remains an important challenge for the industry. As with any growing economy, it’s vital to constantly ask who might be being left behind, and how they can be brought back on for the ride. One more positive aspect of the industry’s growth is the way it’s helping the artist/rightsholder relationship to evolve. Bad deals may not be a thing of the past yet, but artists’ and managers’ awareness of the money flowing into the industry is often stiffening their resolve to seek ownership of their rights – and that flow is also funding new kinds of companies willing to grant that. As Bergen said, sustained industry growth should never be an excuse for complacency, and in many cases, that growth will directly family plans and other customer acquisition Another challenge posed by impressive Streaming’s scale is such that it can make drive the efforts to modernise industry strategies employed by streaming platforms growth at the industry level comes when a new artist very rich, very quickly, but structures, develop new models and at the expense of creators and content some people within that value chain feel creators lower down the popularity charts return more agency to creators. Fixing our producers.” And he’s been a strong supporter hard done by: that they’re not getting their may have different feelings as they look at problems from a position of strength and of streaming. fair share of this tasty new streaming pie. their royalty cheques. confidence is much more preferable than Five years of growth will hopefully give You can see this in the always- Spotify’s recent Wrapped 2019 promotion from the position of decline and panic that is the industry the confidence to look beyond simmering debate about whether saw fans sharing stats on how much still fresh in the industry’s memory. overly-simplistic criticism of or demands recordings get too big a share of the pie, they’d been listening to their favourite But let’s also celebrate that strength. from its digital partners. For example, and songs (compositions) get too little. artists, and artists sharing figures on their According to the IFPI’s Music Listening 2019 looking at Netflix and thinking ‘It put up its Labels versus publishers feels like a battle overall streams. The Wrapped ‘cards’ were study in September, 89% of respondents prices and subscriptions still grew: Spotify that’s ready to break out again, fuelled by ubiquitous on social media for a couple of were using some kind of legal, on-demand should put up prices too!’ may be less useful those booming industry totals and major- days, but there was also a backlash: critics music-streaming service, including 64% who than taking a deeper look at Netflix, with label revenues. DSPs are, unsurprisingly, pointing out that a big number of streams listen to legal, on-demand audio-streaming its multiple tiers ($8.99, $12.99 and $15.99 keen not to have to pick a side. can seem rather more paltry when converted services. That’s a world away from 2008, a month) with their differentiated features. Another mismatch comes when the to projected royalties. when the same body was claiming that 95%

report Rightsholders have already licensed strong growth for the industry and key Figuring out how to turn the burgeoning of music downloads were illegal, and when Amazon’s spin on that strategy, but there rightsholders rubs up against the financial industry-wide growth into something that the idea of even a year of growth, let alone may be more to explore. worries of individual artists and songwriters. works for the ‘middle class’ of musicians, as five in a row, felt like an impossible fantasy. :) the 4

ISSUE 426 END-OF-YEAR REPORT 19.12.19 2 The TL;DR of the ECD and MMA ind back a year, and our Photo: Michael on Unsplash setting up the MLC, with the group backed trends report’s section on the by the National Music Publishers Association European Copyright Directive winning out. Cue more arguments, as (ECD) and Music Moderniza- its request for $66m of setup and first- Wtion Act (MMA) was headlined ‘Legislation year costs, to be paid for by digital music goes music’s way… or does it?’ The question services, was challenged as being (in was whether the industry positivity around the words of one anonymous DSP exec) the MMA’s successful progress into US law “easily three times the cost of creating a would be matched by the ultimate form of comparable organisation of this nature… Europe’s new copyright legislation, amid a big price tag without a lot of information heavy lobbying from the creative and tech attached to it”. industries. A deal was reached, and for not much It was also unclear at that stage whether less ($62m) than the original demand. the music industry that pushed the But even once that was settled, the MLC’s MMA through would hold steady as the new decision to pick the Harry Fox Agency as a law was implemented in practice. technology partner sparked another row, So, 2020. The final stages of the ECD’s this time with criticism from musician and passage were certainly dramatic. At one creator-rights advocate David Lowery point a group of music industry bodies called (inset), angry at HFA’s past role handling for the directive to be scrapped entirely mechanical rights for Spotify. for elements “which fundamentally go The lesson here? Securing against copyright principles enshrined in EU was far from the end of the story. It’s now nothing is certain. legislation that is seen as positive for and international copyright law”. Quickly down to the individual European Union Back in the US, the the music industry is one thing, but followed by another open letter from bodies states to implement it, complete with the emphasis has been on implementing it has plenty of scope for representing music creators criticising that ability to add their own local twists. As one of the MMA’s key unexpected disappointments and cats-in- intervention as “heavy-handed tactics of YouTube CEO recently made provisions: the creation of a sacks infighting. heavyweight businesses”. clear, the intense lobbying hasn’t stopped: Mechanical Licensing Collective The US industry is now preparing for The contrast to the industry unity which it’s simply moved to a national level. (MLC) to, among other duties, create a another battle: forcing terrestrial radio piloted the MMA through the US legislative Well into 2020, we’ll be finding out what database of works and recordings, and stations to pay performance royalties, while process was painfully stark, and yet when approach countries take, including the to ensure that publishers and songwriters industry bodies in Europe are enmeshed in the final text emerged in mid-February, our UK, which if and when it ‘Brexits’ the EU, finally receive the ‘black box’ income from the ECD-implementation process. Will we industry was back in a positive mood about should be transposing the ECD into its own unmatched streams of their work. still be talking about the latter in a year’s its “effective and well-balanced” approach legislation. But given that the UK’s Prime Two consortia battled to win the job of time? Don’t bet against it. :) – even if the legislation’s tech critics were Minister Boris Johnson tweeted in March Securing legislation that is seen as positive for the music

report much less impressed. that the new law was “terrible for the The European Parliament’s approval of … a classic EU law to help the rich industry is one thing, but implementing it has plenty of scope the ECD in March by a vote of 348 to 274 and powerful, and we should not apply it” for unexpected disappointments and cats-in-sacks infighting” the 5

ISSUE 426 19.12.19 END-OF-YEAR REPORT 3 Spotify’s two-sided strategy

potify usually gets its own section in the marketplace strategy”. our end-of-year report, but in 2019 One tool is already in testing: more than ever, it runs throughout sponsorships of the pop-up ‘marquee’ this publication. feature that lets listeners know a new SIts addition of 17 million subscribers and from an artist they like is out. Labels will 41 million overall users in the first three pay $0.55 per tap-through from the ads, quarters of 2019; its $500m investment with an advised minimum spend of $5k per in podcasts; its appeal against new US campaign. -royalty rates; its India launch There are tensions around this sort of and accompanying licensing dispute with thing. First, how will premium subscribers Warner/Chappell; its antitrust complaint (who are partly paying to remove ads from against Apple; tests of its first hardware… Spotify) respond to ‘sponsorships’ on the These are all covered elsewhere in service? The fact that they can turn off the this report, as are its launch of more marquee ads shows Spotify is alive to the personalised playlists (and ‘enhanced’ sensitivities here. album playlists with artists); its involvement Second, will on-platform, paid-for with Facebook’s Libra cryptocurrency marketing tools work as well for smaller initiative; the debate about falling ARPU and labels and artists as they will do for the top (potential) rising subscription prices; and the stars and major labels with bigger budgets? in-house tools used for Skygge’s AI-music It’s too early to make assumptions here, not project ‘American Folk Songs’. that this will stop some people fearing the Meanwhile, running through 2019 marketplace for users and artists, which is ticketing, merchandise sales and other ways worst. Maximum transparency about how were themes including Spotify’s ongoing powered by data, analytics, and software,” that SPOT can help artists and the industry,” these and other new tools work, for different negotiations with labels to renew its its S1 filing explained. wrote MKM Partners analyst Rob Sanderson levels of budget, will be welcome. licensing deals; the departures of existing “The long-term success metrics for this in August 2018, predicting that by 2023, The final question about a two-sided executives, to be replaced by new faces; platform is growing the number of creators Spotify would be making $580m a year from marketplace defined as listeners on one and the ever-present discussion of Spotify’s on our platform… using our promotion, this ‘additional data and services’. side and artists on the other, with Spotify share price, for better or worse. marketing and career-management tools, 2020 will see the big reveal for many of at the centre, is the impact on those other The theme we’ve picked out for this and the number of artists and labels paying these tools, but 2019 laid the groundwork, traditional middlemen: labels. Spotify-focused bit of the report, though, us to use those tools and services,” added not least when Ek told analysts in April Spotify may have ended its experiment is a phrase you’ll invariably here when CEO Daniel Ek in July that year. that the marketplace strategy will be the with direct artist uploads, and repeatedly set a senior Spotify exec talks in public: the Analysts have always welcomed the engine of Spotify’s “future for our margin out its belief that its strategy will help labels ‘two-sided marketplace’. It’s been a staple idea of the music industry paying Spotify, growth”. And then in July when he updated market more efficiently, but suspicions of

report of its corporate messaging since it went as compared to the other way around. “We them on Spotify’s licence-renewal talks with its motives may be quick to pop up again, public in 2018. see great monetisation potential for data, labels. “The primary focus for this round of if labels feel its marketplace is putting their “We are building a two-sided music analytical tools, tour marketing and support, negotiation has really been about enabling noses out of joint. :) the It’s traditional to think of 6 Apple as a company for whom ISSUE 426 services simply help it to make 19.12.19 END-OF-YEAR REPORT 4 money from hardware. But with iPhone revenues currently in decline, services are increasingly Apple Music heading important for Apple ” site Barrons suggested that Apple Music could be a $15bn-$20bn business (in market cap terms) if Apple were ever forced to spin for super-bundle? it off. Not that this is currently in the offing. The second big-picture trend is actually pple may be a public company, strings attached to its conversion-data (music included), up from 330m a year one for 2020. This year, Apple launched but the number of Apple Music agreement with Linkfire (see p29) and more before. several non-music subscription services, subscribers isn’t a key metric for its light-heartedly – for external observers at It’s traditional to think of Apple as a including Apple Arcade for games, Apple overall business, so unlike Spotify least – an announcement of the first Apple company for whom services simply help it to News+ for digital news and magazines, and Athe company can pick and choose its times Music Awards in which the “uniquely Apple” make money from hardware. But with iPhone Apple TV+ for television and films. to give updates. award got more words than Breakthrough revenues currently in decline, services are The obvious question is when and Apple Music passed 50m paid subs at the Artist of The Year Lizzo. increasingly important for Apple. Not to how Apple will bring these together with end of January 2019, then crossed 60m in There were two key big-picture trends mention the fact that those latest quarterly Apple Music into some kind of ‘super- late June. If that trend continued, it should around Apple Music this year though. revenues – an annual run-rate of $50bn – bundle’ subscription. Indeed, in November, now be past 70m, with its monthly average The first was its role in helping services would, if Apple’s services were a standalone Bloomberg predicted that such a bundle may of 2m net additions in 2019 comparing become one of Apple’s key business business, rank it in the mid-sixties in the launch as soon as 2020. favourably to Spotify’s figure of 1.9m. segments. The division’s revenues grew Fortune 100 index of companies. That’s Cross-media bundles aren’t an unknown In terms of the service itself, 2019 was a by 18% to a new record of $12.51bn in bigger than Cisco Systems, American quantity for the music industry, with Amazon year of steady improvements rather than the third quarter of this year, including a Airlines and Best Buy. Prime’s blend of music, video, books swingeing changes. Its editors championed new all-time high for Apple Music. By the With some US presidential-nomination and magazines (and free shipping when a range of emerging artists in its Up Next end of September, Apple had 450m paid candidates talking about big-tech breakups, shopping) the obvious example. scheme; the work of its internal and external subscriptions across its various services this generated speculation: in June, financial Still, an Apple super-bundle raises curators was buffed up with original, important issues for rightsholders and Apple album-style artwork; its analytics for Music’s streaming rivals alike. How will the artists came out of beta; the service got a subscriptions for these bundles be divided web app; and key playlists became more- between, say, games, news, video and differentiated brands (see p29). music – especially when music’s ability to be Apple finally killed off iTunes, sort of, by played in the background nixes any simple splitting its desktop application into separate ‘time spent’ mechanic? Music, Podcasts and TV. It upgraded the As for Spotify, it’s already more than just For You recommendations screen; took its a pureplay ‘music’ service, with its push into HomePod smart speaker to new markets podcasts and other spoken-word content. An including Japan; and launched a suite of Apple super-bundle may add new impetus Replay playlists mirroring Spotify’s look- to the exploration of video that began with a

report back-nostalgia features. Hulu joint bundle. And remember, pureplay There were flashes of the old Apple video services like Netflix will be facing throwing its weight around, such as the similar questions... :) the 7

ISSUE 426 END-OF-YEAR REPORT 19.12.19 5 6 China: music in the hands Voice smarts still developing

ny discus- e’re past the peak hype stage sion of the for smart speakers and voice Chinese assistants, in terms of over-ex- recorded citable industry execs boasting Amusic market will Wat conferences about how Echo and Alexa inevitably focus have changed their lives. But 2019 saw some on Tencent Music. steady progress for this category, as well as Partly because its some new thorny questions. three streaming Progress? The year began with Amazon services’ combined announcing that it had sold more than market share make 100m Alexa-capable devices, swiftly it the biggest DSP followed by ’s (Android-assisted) by some distance, comparable milestone of 1bn Google and partly because Assistant-capable devices. post-IPO, its num- It continued with both Spotify and bers are published on a quarterly basis. which thanks to devices from Baidu, Xiaomi Pandora testing voice-enabled ads; The key challenge in China from and Alibaba overtook the US for quarterly Chinese smart-speaker shipments rightsholders’ view is conversion rates: shipments this year. There were also bright overtaking the US (see opposite); Michael convincing more of the huge base of free spots for western artists in China, including Bublé getting his own Alexa skill while John streamers to start paying. How did Tencent ’s one million ‘first-week full- Legend lent his voice to ; Music do on that score this year? Well, it length album consumption’ units for her Apple finally opening up Siri to music- which begged the question of why there ended 2018 with 27 million paying users of Lover album in August, and a range of streaming services beyond its own; and was a 50.5m gap between Canalys’s and its online-music services, 4.2% of its 644 western acts doing well on the biggest non- Spotify giving away (potentially) millions IDC’s predictions. million monthly active users. By the end of Tencent streaming service, NetEase Cloud of Google Home speakers, while testing its Two concerns this year. First, the music September 2019, it had 35.4 million paying Music (inset). own ‘Car Thing’ for drivers. industry seems not much further forward users, and a conversion rate of 5.4%. China remains a fluid market, with stories Meanwhile, the number of devices out in understanding what it needs to do to That’s welcome progress, but adding just from Alibaba’s investment in NetEase Cloud in the wild continued to grow. In March, make the most of smart speakers: what under one million net new paying-users a Music to the ongoing dismantling of DSP research firm IDC predicted that 144.3m do they really mean for marketing and for month in 2019 in a market of China’s size catalogue-exclusivity agreements showing smart speakers would ship globally in 2019, metadata requirements? Lucian Grainge shows the scale of the challenge ahead, how its sands are still shifting. Even so, although we’ll have to wait until January reminding labels to stick the song title in as rightsholders and DSPs alike mull hopes are high among global and (at the earliest) to see if that prediction the chorus was about as sophisticated as paywalled music, new features Chinese music companies alike was correct. the analysis got. and promotional strategies to up that the market will continue to As ever, you could pick and choose your Second, smart speakers aren’t immune that rate of growth. grow, and deliver real revenues favourite (sometimes contradictory) big from the debates around digital privacy: we Encouragement will come (not just pie-in-the-sky numbers: Canalys claimed in April that the saw some indications this year that some

report from music’s potential to predictions and user numbers) global install-base of smart speakers would people are having second thoughts about benefit from the burgeoning to artists and rightsholders in grow from 114m units at the end of 2018 to a listening device from Google, Amazon, smart-speaker market in China, this new decade. :) 207.8m by the end of 2019 – 93.8m units, Facebook or Apple in their homes. :) the 8

ISSUE 426 19.12.19 END-OF-YEAR REPORT 7 TikTok: it don’t stop

he joys of writing an end-of-year proof that the video-sharing app – with a A dispute with licensing hub ICE that’s genuinely engaged in the platform. One trends report are the hasty rewrites staggering 1.5bn downloads to date – is the going to arbitration with the UK’s Copyright of the big marketing lessons this year was required by late-breaking news. breakthrough platform of the year for music. Tribunal will also have an important impact that for labels, TikTok success was often Bytedance was the culprit this time less about doing things on the app itself, round:T no sooner had we written about the Like YouTube in the past, TikTok’s rapid rise has and more about spotting when a track was speculation in 2019 about its new streaming come with rightsholder tensions on both the going viral organically there, and setting the service, then Resso broke cover. wheels in motion to capitalise elsewhere, be It’s being tested in India, Indonesia, and label and publishing sides... ” that on Spotify, YouTube or other platforms. other “developing markets” as a free mobile Like Vine before it, TikTok is also showing app, with a built-in paid subscription costing potential as a new pool for A&Rs to dip in (in India) 119 rupees a month – about $1.70. to: not in a novelty sense, but because if a People can stream music (and download it talented teenage musician is showing off if they subscribe) but there’s also a healthy their early tracks, there’s a good chance it’ll dose of TikTok-style user-generated content be on TikTok. in the form of ‘vibes’ – short, shareable Like other tech companies, Bytedance videos using music as their soundtrack. has some storm-clouds gathering, with Deals are in place with big Indian labels, calls in the US for an investigation into its if not (at the time of writing) with the global acquisition of social app Musical.ly and its major labels. But from early indications, privacy / censorship policies. Even after Resso really does look like an interesting a (then) record $5.7m fine in February new spin on music-streaming, with the kind from the Federal Trade Commission for of social features at its core – not just videos Musical.ly flouting children’s privacy laws, but comments too – that the established the challenge of how to deal with TikTok’s western DSPs have swerved. popularity with under-13s is still lurking, too. Resso’s launch in India will be particularly Still, TikTok is a force to be reckoned intriguing, since it’s launching there with the It’s an A&R hotbed, a meme farm, the on how TikTok approaches that side of with, Resso looks like it could make some backing of another app (TikTok) that has “new radio” and more. And, like YouTube in licensing in 2020. decent ripples in the streaming pond, and more than 120 million active users in that the past, TikTok’s rapid rise has come with In the meantime, artists and marketers Bytedance clearly means business. In country alone, as we explain on p12. Resso is rightsholder tensions on both the label and continue to flock to TikTok, encouraged by 2020, it will continue to be a major player thus far from starting from scratch in its bid publishing sides. the growing number of marketing agencies in our industry. :) to attract listeners. Bytedance recruiting industry veterans promising to help them go viral with the aid Globally, TikTok had a big year, if like former WMG exec Ole Obermann shows of the app’s young and creative community sometimes a challenging one. The success its determination to get the necessary deals of TikTokers.

report of Lil Nas X’s ‘Old Town Road’, Regard’s locked down, although publishers (see p10) There will be some great music ‘Ride It’, Sueco The Child, Absofacto’s are also clamouring for their slice of TikTok’s campaigns on TikTok in 2020, and also ‘Dissolve’ and more are all wheeled out as growing pie. plenty of clunky ones, from artists who aren’t the 9

ISSUE 426 END-OF-YEAR REPORT 19.12.19 8 9 Everyone loves podcasts UMG meets Tencent

Music announced a partnership with production powerhouse . announced two joint ventures and then inked a daily-satire-show deal with The Onion. Artists like Blossoms, Robert Plant, David Gilmour, Feist, Gregory Porter, Frank Turner, Oasis, Dolly Parton, Korn, Martina McBride, Midland, Vampire Weekend, Reba t the time of writing it’s not a done Alongside that, there are also potential McEntire and deal, but Tencent possibly buying a issues with the power dynamics around ell, Spotify certainly does. The Robbie Williams all either launched or were 10% stake in any UMG/Tencent tie-up. As ever, these company began the year by the subject of a new show. (with an option to buy a further concerns are being voiced most loudly by revealing that podcast listening This year also saw a succession of stats A10%) is a hint about the possible future ar- European independent body Impala, the grew by 175% on its platform in showing the growth of podcast listening. In chitecture of the global music business. And veteran of numerous consolidation antitrust W2018 – yes, from a small base – and it quickly March, Edison Research and Triton Digital’s also the challenges that a consolidation of battles. made a splash in 2019 by earmarking up to ‘Infinite Dial’ report claimed that 62 million entertainment super-powers could mean. “Even at a low level of shareholding, we $500m for acquisitions, including produc- Americans had listened to a podcast in the UMG is big – its revenues in 2018 were believe the risk of harm for consumers and tion studios Gimlet Media and Parcast, and last week, and 90 million in the last month. $7.15bn (up 6.2% from 2017) and Deutsche competitors from such a transaction would podcast-recording app Anchor. In April, research firm Warc claimed that Bank put a €29bn valuation on the company be a concern because of the impact in both Across the year, meanwhile, Spotify global podcast audio advertising spend earlier this year, as parent company Vivendi the digital market and the music sector, launched a succession of original shows, would reach $885m in 2018, nearly doubling prepared to auction off up to half of its music with independents being squeezed further and bagged some pricey exclusives – to $1.6bn by 2022. In June, the Internet subsidiary. Tencent is also enormous and and artists also losing out,” is how Impala’s upwards of $10m for the Obamas? A snip! Advertising Bureau and PwC released a dominates in gaming, music and more in executive chair Helen Smith put it. The company’s claim that non-music will report suggesting that the US industry China, with revenues of $12.9bn in Q2 alone. UMG defied the odds in 2011 when it was ultimately be 20% of its listening (see p5) generated $479.1m of ad revenues in 2018, Yet there are obstacles to clear before allowed to buy the bulk of EMI after Citigroup was a reminder of its ambitions. and predicted growth to $678.7m in 2019... these two giants start to fuse together. took the company out of Terra Firma’s Pandora loved podcasts too, coming up and more than $1bn by 2021. Chinese companies – notably Alibaba, hands. But the rules of engagement that with its own hybrid ‘stories’ format blending This is all exciting, but the downside was Tencent and Huawei – are under enormous time did not have to factor in the navigation music and spoken-word clips, while also that podcasts remain a Wild West when scrutiny from the US government over of tinderbox geo-politics. UMG and Tencent leveraging the talk-radio shows of its parent it comes to music licensing, with many security concerns. While Vivendi is a will be pushing for their deal to happen;

report company SiriusXM for podcasts. podcasters either infringing copyright, or French company, the Sino-US political Impala will be pushing for the opposite. Who Also meaningful, though, was the music swerving music altogether to avoid potential and trade standoff could also have global wins and how they win will help to define the industry leaning in to podcasts. Universal legal headaches. :) repercussions here. new global order for the music business. :) the 10

ISSUE 426 19.12.19 END-OF-YEAR REPORT 10

Publishers get punchy Witness the lawsuit led by 10 publishers against exercise brand fanned the flames of existing tensions within Peloton. Music is a major part of the music industry: “The CRB judges set the new publishing rates by assuming that record its classes, but publishers argued labels would react by reducing their licensing that the company had not secured rates, but their assumption is incorrect.” all the necessary licensing deals The National Music Publishers to use their works ” Association hit back with a ‘fact check’ of Spotify’s arguments, and prominent company’s own widely mocked Christmas publishing figures lambasted the company ad did. (its co-appealers got off lightly) over the As the year went on, we saw the following weeks, with Apple joining in as its NMPA take aim at TikTok over copyright separate antitrust dispute with Spotify flared infringement too: “While some publishers up (see p14). have been able to negotiate with TikTok The outcome of the appeal has yet to be to license their catalogs, a large part of decided, but the fallout from what former [the publishing] industry does not have Sony/ATV boss Martin Bandier called “the agreements in place, meaning numerous dumbest PR move ever” will almost certainly works continue to be used unlawfully as the continue, whichever way the decision goes. platform’s popularity grows exponentially,” The publishing community coming wrote its boss David Israelite. Photo: Ivan Pergasi on Unsplash together to tackle what it sees as bad actors Publishers were mad as hell about was a theme. Witness the lawsuit led by 10 these and other examples of what they ’m as mad as hell and I’m not going to Google, Amazon, Pandora and Spotify publishers against exercise brand Peloton. saw as their works and songwriters not take this anymore!” raged TV news anchor (who have yet to be branded as the ‘value Music is a major part of its classes, but being adequately compensated and/or Howard Beale in 1976’s Network, anticipat- GAPS’ by publishers, but give it time) publishers argued that the company had not respected. Their willingness to go into ing the Chemical Brothers by 43 years as submitted their appeal against the rates just secured all the necessary licensing deals to battle does raise the question of what Ihe turned against the media company that before the deadline for doing so, and with use their works. their next move might be in another long- made him. The phrase is also relevant to the Apple Music stepping back saying it was With Peloton hitting back by claiming running cause of simmering resentment: views of music publishers in 2019, as they content with the new rates, publishers were it had spent “tens of millions of dollars” the division of streaming royalties between stood up for their songwriters in a series of left enraged. on a licensing system, while accusing the recordings and works. disputes. Particularly with Spotify, which jabbed publishers of “a coordinated effort... to fix Agitating for a bigger slice of the pie The biggest battle concerned the appeal at one of the inaccurate attack lines (“No, prices and to engage in a concerted refusal at the expense of labels has taken a by four streaming services against new Spotify is not suing songwriters…”) and said to deal with Peloton”, the acrimony quickly back seat to industry unity for political songwriter-royalty rates set by the US it was not averse to paying higher royalties escalated. Although we’re not sure what to lobbying purposes in the last few years, but

report Copyright Royalty Board (CRB), which would but only if they “cover the right scope of make of the fact that a now-$300m lawsuiit emboldened by their battles in 2019, perhaps lead to a 44% increase in publisher royalties publishing rights” and offered flexibility for against the company had less of a negative publishers will have the appetite to revive the over the next five years. music and non-music bundles. Spotify also impact on Peloton’s share price than the issue in 2020. Sparks will surely fly if so. :) the 11

ISSUE 426 END-OF-YEAR REPORT 19.12.19 11 12 Facebook’s fluid future Boomplay signifies Africa’s ambition

acebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s an- Plus the odd curveball, like the e’re here to stay, and you’re Boomplay isn’t the only streaming game nual challenge this year was “to host launch of experimental music app Aux going to know about it!” said in town for Africa: uduX (with its own UMG a series of public discussions about and the acquisition of music-VR game Ikechukwu Onuorah of the deal); telco MTN’s MusicTime; Smubu; the future of technology in society”, Beat Saber. Artiste Managers Association in Playfre; Naijatastic and TrackDrip were Falthough he ended 2019 being mocked for Facebook continued to be an important WNigeria at our NY:LON Connect conference among the other services covered by Music choosing eight men and one woman – all marketing platform, even as its ad-targeting in January, of the ambitions within Africa to Ally this year, in the continued absence of white – for those discussions. capabilities evolved in response to those build the continent’s own streaming services, some of the biggest global DSPs. Meanwhile, from privacy issues to its recent privacy controversies, and changes in industry structure and stars capable of YouTube isn’t absent: its head of music plans to launch its Libra cryptocurrency, legislation. breaking globally. Lyor Cohen visited Nigeria to announce a Facebook continued to be a lightning rod for Something else to watch are Facebook’s Boomplay made the biggest noise in the partnership with Mr Eazi to support emerging criticism of Big Tech in general. Oh, and it plans for fan-funding. Details emerged in first of those categories, following its late- local artists, and even strutted his ‘zanku’ was hit with a $5bn fine by the Federal Trade February of plans for ‘Fan Subscriptions’ 2018 distribution partnership with Universal stuff on-stage (google it). Commission for privacy-related violations. where creators would get at least 70% of the Music Group this year with licensing Earlier in the year, YouTube also funded Despite this, 2019 has been a big money paid by their fans. agreements with WMG and Sony, giving a Burna Boy Artist Spotlight film, and that success: in the first three quarters, Facebook But the longer-term future is fascinatingly it a full set of global major-labels to add to artist would also be named as an Apple generated $49.6bn in revenue (up 27.4% fluid. Will Facebook’s Portal devices catch its African music catalogue – although the Music Up Next artist this year. year-on-year) while generating net profits of on, and will it be able to clone TikTok? Could latter still accounts for 80% of its streams. This, plus Tiwa Savage’s global deal $11.1bn. Libra launch successfully and (as Spotify Boomplay also raised a $20m funding with UMG and WMG’s partnership with As for music, 2019 was a year of evolution CEO Daniel Ek suggested in June) enable round in April; grew from 36 million users Chocolate City, hinted at what should be an for Facebook’s user-generated content fans to “be able to pay artists directly”? in November 2018 to 53 million by the end even stronger trend in 2020: a demand for licences: expansion to markets including Or, and this is the really big picture, could of August 2019; and signed the kind of African music across the world, and strong

report India, Thailand and Brazil; birthday-themed the next president of the US come to office attribution data deal with Linkfire that many partnerships that respect the independence music stickers in stories; and an Eventbrite with a determination to break Facebook and global DSPs are still getting their heads and ambition of African companies and partnership for ticketing for example. other big-tech companies up? :) around. individuals, rather than seek to exploit it. :) the 12

ISSUE 426 END-OF-YEAR REPORT 19.12.19 13 India sets its sights on the top 10

n 2018, India was the 15th largest recorded Spotify signed up more than one million users in India in its music market in the world, according to first week, but has since declined to report specific figures the IFPI. 2019 saw the country continue – although in its Q3 financials Spotify did claim that India what the industry there hopes is a steady had “outperformed our forecast by 30% this quarter ” Imarch towards the top 10 of those rankings. A report early in the year from Deloitte and industry body IMI claimed there were March, it was downloaded 15m times in its the year when TikTok’s importance there nearly 150 million music streamers in India first month and a half. became clear: with 120 million monthly as 2019 started, but warned that “less Meanwhile, Indian films and music active users in this country alone by June. than 1 percent of the subscribers are paid company T-Series finally unseated gamer TikTok also faced criticism (and even a users and nearly 14 percent subscribers are PewDiePie as the top channel on YouTube by brief app-store takedown) from the Indian bundled users; the remaining 85 percent of subscribers, reaching 100 million at the end government, amid a wider debate about users are on free subscription”. of May, and 121 million by early December. the need for new regulations for tech What’s driving its growth? Local Indian artists ‘intermediaries’ that in some ways echoed streaming services Gaana, JioSaavn and like the Article 13 / Section 230 debates in Wynk Music take many of the plaudits, and (left), , Europe and the US. all three announced nine-figure milestones , Udit Changing listening habits were within a few weeks: 100 million active users Narayan and interesting too. The rise of regional for Gaana and JioSaavn, and 100 million Arijit Singh were language music from other parts of ‘installs’ for Wynk Music – although the mainstays in the India, to the growth of independent latter, owned by telco Airtel, would later top 10 of YouTube’s Indian hip-hop (and one of its trailblazers, claim to have overtaken rivals for daily weekly global (not Divine, being signed to UMG’s new active users. just India) music joint-venture Mass Appeal India) and These Indian services faced global later be removed from Spotify too, after charts. By December, Yagnik was averaging experiments with non-film music from competition in 2019 like never before. licensing issues. more than 1.2bn plays of her music a month labels and DSPs alike, has shown there is Amazon was already in India, and claimed Spotify signed up more than one million on YouTube. life outside the movies world. in January that it had doubled its Prime users in India in its first week, but has since No wonder YouTube accounts for Ambitions are high: Gaana’s CEO said Music userbase in India in the previous five declined to report specific figures – although 40% of Indian labels’ digital revenues, in April that he hopes India will have 600 months. From what to what remained a in its Q3 financials Spotify did claim that according to a March report from the million people streaming music “in the mystery. India had “outperformed our forecast by Federation of Indian Chambers of next 2-3 years”. The key to cracking the Spotify also finally launched in India 30% this quarter”. Commerce and Industry (FICCI) – even if IFPI’s top 10 and then shooting up it will be in February, amid a high-profile licensing The biggest competition for all of these Indian artist Badshah failed in his Google subscriptions, though. A report from KPMG dispute with over its audio streaming services remains YouTube, Ads-assisted bid to snaffle YouTube’s India in September predicted that while

report assertion of a statutory licence for works which as of April had 265 million monthly global 24-hour-debut views record. subscriptions would only be 9.1% of the by WMG’s publishing division Warner/ users in India – 20% of the population. When YouTube isn’t the only user-generated ’s streaming revenues Chappell. ’s catalogue would it launched its YouTube Music app in mid- platform making waves in India. 2019 was in 2019, that will grow to 31% by 2024. :) the 13

ISSUE 426 19.12.19 END-OF-YEAR REPORT 14 Progress on diversity

committed to (and some already achieving) lots of work to do in the music industry, 50/50 gender parity on their lineups. as elsewhere. But there are lots of people Streaming services were also held to willing to do that work, and talk about it account in terms of their playlists and loudly. recommendation algorithms. Country All in all, it feels like there are positive artist Martina McBride (pictured below) laid signs of an industry facing up to its past into Spotify after funding that the first 135 shortcomings, and doing something about suggestions of tracks for a country music them – now. When we’re confronted by playlist she was making were all by men. An evidence of the problems – the annual apology and a promise to do better was the gender pay-gap data publication in the refreshingly undefensive response. UK has already established itself as What’s encouraging is the combination of 2019 was also the year of the Surviving an apologetic moment for most music calling out problems, and offering solutions. R Kelly documentary, and the ensuing companies – it can act as an accelerator for There were still prominent ‘pale, male and clamour for music companies to cut their change. stale’ industry “power” rankings, but also ties with the artist. It’s often said that If 2019 proved anything it is that the initiatives like SheSaid.so’s Alternative the music industry itself has yet to have momentum is there to change all this much Power 100 list to offer another view. its ‘Weinstein’ moment – the downfall quicker than was imaginable even as little as Studies in the UK, Nordics and elsewhere of a hugely-powerful executive after five years ago. laid bare the dominance of male songwriters allegations of sex crimes and misconduct The recent announcement by US in the charts and even in the memberships – but the work of Time’s Up in the US, organisation Women in Music of its of collecting societies, yet there were SheSaid.so and InChorus Group in the UK ambitions was a neat summary of how Photo: Nathan Dumlao on Unsplash songwriting camps, mentoring initiatives and others is laying the groundwork for inclusive this drive for, well, inclusion and other efforts to continue the process of harassment and bullying to be called out can be. hat the music industry has had changing these ratios. and for their proponents to get their “We want to open up a diversity problem should be a There were controversies around comeuppance. the conversation in a real surprise to no one; that it continues festival lineups, most prominently with the Diversity and inclusion is a and impactful way - for to have one is shameful. But – slowly TRSNMT festival in Scotland, and its boss’ topic that goes well beyond women of colour, for the –T things are changing. response to criticism of a male-heavy lineup gender. People who aren’t LGBTQ community, for 2019 saw continued momentum for announcement being “we need to get more white, people who aren’t our male allies, and people and organisations speaking up females picking up guitars, forming bands, heterosexual, people who more - to create a safer, about having diverse workforces and playing in bands”. live with disabilities or more inclusive and management within music companies, Women who’ve been picking up guitars mental-health conditions, more equitable music not to mention on panels at conferences. for their whole careers quickly let him know people whose families can’t industry for all,” said

report There was also a sharp awareness what they thought about that. Yet the flipside afford to fund months of its president Nicole that collectively, we have some distance is the growth of the Keychange initiative, unpaid internships until Barsalona. Onwards. to go. which has an increasing number of festivals they get a job… there is :) the 14

ISSUE 426 19.12.19 END-OF-YEAR REPORT 15

said Mr. Cue” being one of our favourite parts of the NYT piece. The regulatory landscape (and the Spotify and Apple’s attitudes of politicians) on either side of the Atlantic make antitrust criticism a particularly-sensitive topic for Apple and other large technology companies. antitrust battle There was progress. Apple’s latest iOS and HomePod updates open up Siri potify and Apple have been squab- to other music-streaming services for the bling almost since the former’s first time, although even then, Spotify still launch. From Spotify’s agitation over had barbs. whether its iPhone app would be “However, you still can’t choose Spotify Sapproved by Apple in 2009, through claims as the default music player. And unless that Apple was dripping poison in labels’ you mention our name (‘I want to play ears when Spotify was trying to sign its US li- [X] on Spotify’), every time you give a censing deals in 2010-11, to 2019’s full blown command to play audio, Siri will default to antitrust argument. Apple Music and so will your Apple device,” It had been presaged by Spotify’s claimed the update to Spotify’s Time To prominence (along with ) in calls for Play Fair lobbying website. European regulators to monitor ‘access to Amazon, meanwhile, announced platforms’ where big technology companies something called the ‘voice interoperability run app stores, smart speakers, search initiative’ in September, with Spotify, Sonos engines etc, but have their own services and Tencent all among its first members. competing with independent players on It’s about ensuring “voice services should those platforms. work seamlessly alongside one another It all blew up in March, when Spotify filed to make more money off others’ work. And from Spotify as part of a separate potential on a single device, and... voice-enabled a complaint against Apple with the European it’s not just the App Store that they’re trying antitrust probe into Apple, opening a new products should be designed to support Commission, launching a website to go to squeeze — it’s also artists, musicians and front in the battle. multiple simultaneous wake words”. public with its belief that Apple had regularly songwriters.” All this is against a backdrop of other So, as 2019 ends, we’re still no clearer abused its position to hurt Spotify: from in- Spotify was backed by a few other complaints and concerns around Apple, to knowing whether the European app subscriptions to Siri/HomePod access streaming services, including Deezer and with the App Store alone sparking an Commission will back Spotify or Apple; and Apple Watch app-rovals. . After those fireworks, however, investigation in the Netherlands; a consumer and whether US politicians will be taking It was quite something to see Spotify it all went a bit quiet. In May the Financial antitrust lawsuit in the US; and a New York their own action. and Apple flying at one another so publicly, Times reported that the EC was preparing Times investigation into why Apple’s own One final thought: in 2019’s battles, including Apple’s “they distribute the to formally investigate Apple over Spotify’s apps often appeared so high in its search Spotify saw itself as the hard-done-by music you love while making ever-smaller claims, while in June Apple’s official results. underdog to Apple’s industry titan. Within contributions to the artists, musicians and response claimed that only 0.5% of Spotify’s The latter article noted that Apple had its own industry – music – however, Spotify

report songwriters who create it” clapback in its subscribers were using its in-app purchases. tweaked the way those results worked is the biggest (subscription player). It rebuttal of Spotify’s claims. In October, Reuters claimed that US to avoid the problem in future. “‘It’s not may well face its own anti-competitive “Underneath the rhetoric, Spotify’s aim is lawmakers had requested information corrected,’ Mr. Schiller said. ‘It’s improved,’ controversies in the years to come. :) the 15

ISSUE 426 END-OF-YEAR REPORT 19.12.19 16 17 Artists play with AI music Japan’s streaming

for it. Yacht fed their back catalogue into transition continues an AI and used the results for their new ‘Chain Tripping’ album. And Skygge – aka he second- Streaming was still musician Benoit Carré – used AI tools biggest just 14.4% of Japan’s developed at Spotify for his ‘American Folk recorded- recorded music Songs’ EP. music market market in the first These are just three examples of artists inT the world continued half of 2019, so there leaning in to AI, and as Herndon put it in its slow transition is plenty of room for her recent comments on the technology: from physical sales to growth in the years “Drum machines made basic drumming streams this year. ahead, mirroring past accessible to musicians but didn’t replace In February, trends elsewhere in *great* drummers. Cool AI tools will industry body the the world. augment the producer’s palette.” RIAJ revealed that Something we’ve As our recent AI-music report explored streaming revenues found since launching at greater length, we’re in an exciting had overtaken music:)ally JAPAN – a moment where there are a bunch of download revenues localised edition of startups developing this technology, and in 2018, and while our journalism – in a growing number of artists willing to you could argue February, though, is experiment with it. this was more a reflection of a historically- a real desire in Japan to start catching up There are certainly challenges: for disappointing downloads market in Japan, by applying the lessons learned from other, example the legalities of training an AI on news that audio streaming subscription more mature streaming markets. a catalogue of copyrighted music, and the revenues had grown by 130% in 2018 felt Also positive: this year popular question of how the rights are assigned for encouraging. Japanese artists including Bump Of hen music:)ally first started that AI’s resulting output. As did the claim by research firm ICT Chicken, The Hiatus, Gen Hoshino, writing about AI-generated 2020 may bring this technology’s Research & Consulting that 10.1 million Perfume, Namie Amuro, Spitz and music a couple of years ago, real disruption though, if (as several Japanese people were paying for a music had their new music made available one of the responses to fears interviewees for that recent report subscription by the end of 2018, with a on streaming services. There are still a Wthat it would put human musicians out of predicted) it makes its way into social apps further 9.7 million on free trials. number of artists whose music is being work was that AI would instead be a tool like TikTok, to get hundreds of millions What about 2019 though? Mid-year withheld from streaming altogether, while for artists. A creative foil that would help of non-musicians creating and sharing figures from the RIAJ showed a 27.5% others (like Arashi) only have their singles them avoid writer’s block and/or step out original music. year-on-year increase in overall streaming available. of their comfort zones. From Bytedance’s acquisition of AI- revenues – covering audio and video, free Still, it’s progress, and with global The problem was that at the time, there music pioneer Jukedeck, via Boomy’s and paid. DSPs and local services like Music weren’t many artists actually doing that. 2019 release-your-own- tools, to At this stage of the market, that growth continuing to grow, and a new generation feels like a big step forward in that regard. Popgun’s consumer-focused Splash app, seems sluggish: the much-more-mature of industry executives and artists willing

report Holly Herndon released her ‘Proto’ there was plenty to write about this year. (in streaming terms) US market saw a to back streaming, Japan’s transition is album and talked in interviews about the The next 12 months promises to be just as 26% growth in streaming revenues by underway, and will hopefully accelerate in ‘Spawn’ AI she’d built as a collaborator busy for this sector. :) comparison. 2020. :) the 16

ISSUE 426 END-OF-YEAR REPORT 19.12.19 18 19 K-pop makes waves globally AR hotter than VR… for now

Possibly 2020, or 2021 if not. Or later. If and when it does come out, the identity of its maker should ensure that music has some kind of role. The other side of the ‘immersive tech’ coin, virtual hock news: K-pop boy- BTS trendwatcher Kevin Allocca said in R trumps VR for practical uses,” reality, continued to face scepticism in the were pretty popular in 2019! But September. “Half of the biggest 24-hour was our verdict in this report a industry this year, with VR headset sales only the interesting trend was that they debuts on YouTube are all K-pop groups.” year ago, and that assessment growing slowly. weren’t alone in making waves well One key trend of 2019 for K-pop was hasn’t changed in 2019. Billie music:)ally sees green shoots though: Soutside . the platform support that these groups AEilish, Childish Gambino, and from TheWaveVR and MelodyVR’s This year saw girl-band Blackpink also were getting globally. Deezer and Slipknot were among the artists testing out reinvention as platforms capable of making a splash globally, with encouraging Tumblr launched K-pop hubs; YouTube augmented-reality technology in apps like distributing VR music performances to signs for another group, Twice, and a flurry commissioned a Twice docu-series, plus Instagram and Snapchat this year. non-headset-demanding places like of US media attention around the launch a travel show featuring members of K-pop These social apps have made AR truly YouTube, and social media, to the of SuperM, a supergroup with members bands TVXQ and Super Junior. mainstream, even if artist lenses or filters million-selling success of VR music game drawn from several existing K-pop groups, Meanwhile, TikTok gave BTS its couldn’t quite compete for virality with the Beat Saber – snapped up by Facebook in an swiftly dubbed (admittedly by their own signature hashtag-challenge treatment FaceApp craze this summer – an app that acquisition this November. label) “the Avengers of K-pop”. after they joined the app; and Spotify digitally aged its users. Gaming is an exciting area for VR music, BTS offered a useful case study. By the (which has had a K-pop hub since 2015 With Facebook (including Instagram) even if the business for performance- end of November, South Korea was only despite not yet being available in South following Snapchat’s lead in opening up based services remains murky – MelodyVR their sixth-biggest market for YouTube Korea) joined in BTS’ global ‘Armypedia’ tools for people to build their own AR is pivoting to a subscription model after a la views, behind the US, Indonesia, Brazil, scavenger-hunt marketing campaign. effects, this has become an increasingly- carte pricing failed to catch on. Mexico and Japan. South Korea was only From India to Latin America, the common element in digital-marketing It was a curiosity of 2019 that ninth for Blackpink, beaten by Thailand, growing clout of K-pop was clear, and campaigns. scepticism of the idea of artists playing Indonesia, Brazil, the Philippines, Vietnam, BTS even got that very-2019 seal of At the higher end of AR, meanwhile, virtual concerts was accompanied by one the US, Japan and Mexico. approval in the US: a featured spot Magic Leap got a dedicated Spotify app, of the biggest digital-music events yet – “If you look at the top 25 most-watched on one of Lil Nas X’s ‘Old Town Road’ but also reports that it had only sold Marshmello’s performance in the game

report K-pop groups over the past year, 90 remix. How this clout is flexed creatively 6,000 of its headsets. Meanwhile, regular Fortnite, which attracted more than 10 percent of the views are coming from and commercially in 2020 will be very speculation pointed to Apple launching million players. Notably with no headsets outside of South Korea,” YouTube’s interesting to watch. :) its own head-worn device... sometime. required. :) the 17

ISSUE 426 19.12.19 END-OF-YEAR REPORT 20 YouTube finds its feet

n the year of the European users into monthly subscribers. Copyright Directive (see p4) Perhaps a public milestone the ‘value gap’ debate still or two will result in 2020 to hung over YouTube’s back that up. Imusic activities in 2019. PRS for Music CEO Yet there’s plenty more to Robert Ashcroft was talk about in terms of its somewhat cynical growth and expanding when we spoke to features too. him in April. “The Music is a huge part challenge for them, of YouTube, with video and therefore for us, and music analytics firm is that their free service Pex claiming in June that is so good,” he said of music videos generated just YouTube’s moves. “Sooner or under 2tn views on YouTube in 2018, later, we’ve got to see some sort representing 20% of total views on the of distinction between the two [tiers] which platform, even though they were only 5% of is sufficiently compelling to make people its content. want to pay. I can understand their reticence there is hard work being put in to serving music platform, and one which, in contrast YouTube has yet to announce subscriber to make the free service worse, though: then artists – who know that not being on to the ‘value gap’ debate in the mature figures for its YouTube Music service which, they’ll risk losing customers.” YouTube is like being invisible in the modern music markets, has won goodwill from given the regularity of milestones from Even so, YouTube remains a crucial industry. artists for paying them anything at all. rivals like Spotify (which has to, as a public music-marketing platform, and the company Something else we’d highlight about Finally, 2019 was the year YouTube’s company) and Apple Music (which does not) spent 2020 rolling out new features, YouTube’s role in the modern music industry metrics came under the spotlight, as Indian may leave you wondering whether YouTube including bankrolling mini-series and is its strength in high-potential markets: artist Badshah used Google Ads to break isn’t shouting about its numbers because documentaries for artists ranging from India and Africa (if not China, for availability the platform’s 24-hour-debut views record, they’re not yet worth shouting about. Billie Eilish and Mark Ronson to Burna Boy. reasons) in particular. before having that title whisked away as That said, consultancy Midia Research YouTube’s ‘premieres’ feature remains one Earlier in this report we’ve talked about YouTube changed its chart and record rules. estimates that and YouTube of the best ways artists can gather fans in YouTube’s scale in India, where it has 265 Loophole closed. Music combined had 16.2 million subscribers one place for a big ‘moment’ – the debut of million monthly active viewers – something The enduring question – and not just by the end of June, putting it fifth behind a new – while its livestreaming that’s helping the top Indian artists rank for music – is how to ride the evolution of Spotify, Apple Music, and activities continue to span festivals, awards even higher than the big western stars in the YouTube’s recommendation algorithm. As Tencent Music in that order. shows and one-offs like Coldplay’s recent platform’s global charts. 3m downloads of explained in a pair of talks at Music YouTube’s global head of music Lyor album launch in Jordan. Well, two-offs in the YouTube Music app in a week after its Ally conferences this year, success can

report Cohen, in an attempt to quell industry that double-performance example. launch in India, and 15m in a month and a be all about the details of videos and their grumblings, has been forthright about the Tensions with rightsholders remain half, also showed its clout. metadata. Just another reason why YouTube company’s ability to convert ad-supported above, but at the level of YouTube Music, In Africa, too, YouTube is already a huge remains such a fascinating platform. :) the 18

ISSUE 426 19.12.19 END-OF-YEAR REPORT 21 22 Green shoots for hi-res music Heavy lifting ahead for Pandora

abels like the idea of ‘hi-res’ music, es- decline in audience,” said senior EVP and pecially if digital services can charge chief financial officer David Frear in October. more for it. A lot of artists like the “We have a lot of heavy lifting ahead of us,” idea of listeners hearing something added CEO Jim Meyer. Lmuch closer to what they hear in the studio. The emphasis is very much that Audiophiles (whether vinyl or HD download stabilising Pandora’s audience isn’t an buyers) seem keen on the idea too. overnight task, but that SiriusXM is confident The questions have always been these: it can manage it, while nurturing what’s an first, how many of those audiophiles already-growing business – ad revenues will make the leap to hi-res streaming grew by 8% year-on-year in the third quarter, subscriptions? And second, will the much- plus a 5% bump in subscription revenues. bigger base of mainstream music fans ever There was also plenty of evidence this care about hi-res to the extent that they’re year of new features and innovation at willing to pay more for it? Pandora, and collaboration with its new 2019 brought the usual range of tech parent company. announcements and new formats: take a 019 started with shareholders On the former front, there was a bow 360 Reality Audio and Dolby’s Atmos, approving satellite radio firm Pandora voice assistant; a format called both of which garnered support from major SiriusXM’s acquisition of stream- ‘stories’ blending podcasts and playlists; labels. Existing player MQA continued ing service Pandora. High on the new listening modes from Deep Cuts to to sign deals with hardware and service 2agenda: reversing the slide in the latter’s Discovery; a Ticketmaster partnership; and partners, too, while Sony Music Japan’s monthly active listeners. experimentation with interactive voice ads. Napster-powered Qualitas service It hasn’t happened yet. Pandora ended On the latter, we saw SiriusXM talk- launched in Japan in October. 2018 with 68.8 million listeners, but that shows repurposed as Pandora podcasts, What we’ve always said, however, is that fell to 66 million by the end of March, 64.9 and the creation of a new ‘original content’ hi-res will be significant if and when the bigger million by the end of June, and 63.1 million team at Pandora. In October, Pandora also streaming services do something with it. This by the end of September. claimed that its Artist Marketing Platform year, we got our first green shoots of that. for Prime members), but it was squarely It’s thus been losing around 633,000 had seen 688% year-on-year growth in Okay, the Apple Digital Masters initiative targeted at mainstream listeners. “The way listeners a month, in a year when Spotify active artists. was about how tracks are encoded before the industry heretofore has priced this has alone has been adding around 544,000 Will all this fuel a bounceback in listeners being made available on Apple Music (and been basically saying ‘we want this to be a month in North America – not a direct for Pandora in 2020? The jury’s out, given iTunes) rather than being hi-res at the point niche’. But I think the industry understands comparison to Pandora’s the strong competition of delivery. It was perhaps a pointer to the that sound quality isn’t niche,” Amazon Music US-only figures, from Spotify, Apple, latter in the future. VP Steve Boom told music:)ally. admittedly. Amazon and YouTube, The big news came from the world’s Amazon hasn’t yet published any figures, SiriusXM isn’t shirking but with the context of the third-biggest subscription service, Amazon. but it has certainly shaken up the pricing for this issue in its earnings wider battle of streaming

report Launched in September, its Amazon Music hi-res streaming, and perhaps provided a calls. “It’s been a long versus radio, Pandora still HD tier not only undercut existing rivals model for Apple Music and Spotify to follow if time in the making. It’s a looks a strong strategic with its $14.99 monthly price (and $12.99 (and it’s still an if) they choose to jump in. :) five-year path to a 20% priority for SiriusXM. :) the 19

ISSUE 426 END-OF-YEAR REPORT 19.12.19 23 24 New levels for games and music LatAm’s stars are truly global

t feels like there e are far, far beyond The artist Rosalía. Meanwhile, Balvin has topped is scope for ‘Despacito’ Effect. Originally Deezer’s annual most-streamed chart for the much more released in early 2017, that last two years, while Bad Bunny was fifth in of this sort of track now has more than 6.5bn Spotify’s 2019 artist rankings. Ithing,” we wrote Wviews on YouTube, having kicked down the Collaborations also continue to be a key in 2018’s trends doors for many other Latin American artists strength for Latin American artists, from report, referring to to burst into the global mainstream. mega-collaborations like Anuel AA, Daddy Universal Music’s Spotify and YouTube have both continued Yankee, Karol G, Ozuna and ’s partnership with to see sharp growth in Latin America, with ‘China’ (released in July and already closing gaming star Tyler both services providing Latin acts with a in on its first billion views) to those that ‘Ninja’ Blevins, global platform. Particularly in the US, where extend beyond their home continent. who came to according to Nielsen in April, 18.4% of music ‘Mueve La Cintura’ from Puerto Rican prominence play- video streams were of Latin music – second artist Tito El Bambino, US artist and ing Fortnite. This was part of a bigger tapestry of interesting only to hip-hop/R&B. Indian artist Guru Randhawa being one Just a few music+gaming partnerships throughout 2019 – a new dawn Meanwhile, the RIAA’s mid-year figures example, and ‘Chicken Noodle Soup’ by BTS weeks later, in for a crossover that some had thought ebbed away with revealed 13.5% growth for Latin recorded- member J-Hope and Mexican-American early February, we the decline of Guitar Hero and Rock Band years ago ” music revenues – slower than the overall artist Becky G another. got a spectacular market, but still a decent uptick – with It’s not just that Latin (or Latin-heritage) more-of-this-sort-of-thing example, as Meanwhile, the likes of , The streaming accounting for 95% of that artists are having global hits sung in Marshmello played a concert in Fortnite to Weeknd, Offset out of Migos, Will Smith income. Spanish. It’s that they’re reaching out an audience of 10.7 million people – and and Scooter Braun invested in startups and The biggest Latin hits are now some of directly to other non-Anglo collaborators, even more once the videos of the event teams from the (pro gaming) world – the biggest global hits, as YouTube’s chart of be they from Korea, India or elsewhere. started to proliferate on YouTube. an industry expected to be worth more than its biggest music videos in 2019 made clear. Streaming has made polyglotism the new Weezer and Major Lazer would follow $1bn for the first time this year. Daddy Yankee, J Balvin and Anuel AA were lingua franca of pop. That’s your revolution that event with their own Fortnite tie-ups – a BTS launched their own mobile game, prominent in the top 10, along with Spanish right there. :) branded island and in-game items pack while the developer of League of Legends respectively – but this was part of a bigger – still one of the biggest titles for esports – tapestry of interesting music+gaming launched another of its own bands, virtual partnerships throughout 2019 – a new dawn hip-hop group True Damage. for a crossover that some had thought More (and even more-creative) crossovers ebbed away with the decline of Guitar Hero between the music and games industries and Rock Band years ago. can only be a good thing in 2020, although Artists popped up in Star Trek: Fleet there will inevitably be tense moments too: Command (Steve Aoki); Beat Saber this year’s included various lawsuits against (Imagine Dragons); FarmVille (Trisha Fortnite for allegedly plagiarising dance

report Yearwood); AdventureQuest (Korn), World routines, as well as collecting societies of Tanks (The Offspring) and Words With making menacing noises about performance- (Garth Brooks) for example. royalties for events like the Marshmello gig. :) the 20

ISSUE 426 19.12.19 END-OF-YEAR REPORT 25 26 Old Town Road rewrites the rules Privacy matters –

s Lil Nas X’s ‘Old Town Road’ track country Association (CMA) awards in November. including for music or not?” was the question music:)ally Along the way, ‘Old Town Road’ reflected Photo: Dayne Topkin on Unsplash posed in our bulletin in March, reporting the evolution of the industry, and wrote against the idea, with a on a controversy in the US around a new some new rules itself. Built using a $30 loop campaign demanding that Itrack whose meme status on TikTok was from beats marketplace BeatStars (originally festivals promise not to use translating to chart waves. created by a Dutch teenager using a banjo facial-recognition tech. “While ‘Old Town Road’ incorporates sample from Nine Inch Nails), it was first Elsewhere, there was references to country and cowboy imagery, released through Amuse, one of the new soul-searching about it does not embrace enough elements of breed of distro/label-services startups. exactly what Alexa, Siri today’s country music to chart in its current Turning down a “north of a million dollars” and Google Assistant version” ruled Billboard, as it barred the track offer from Amuse to stay with the company, might be listening to in from its country chart. Lil Nas X signed to Columbia Records, people’s homes – and how Fans didn’t care what genre the track then embarked upon a summer of remixes, some of those recordings was assigned: they just wanted to play Animoji videos and social-media sass to fuel were being listened to it over and over. Old Town Road’ broke the track’s momentum. by humans for training Drake’s record for single-week US streams Plus there was Lil Nas X himself, a gay purposes. in April; topped YouTube’s global songs man operating across two genres where Spotify faced an chart in May; kept Taylor Swift, Post homophobia is still in plain view. “I feel like n this era of big data, micro-targeting investigation from the Swedish data- Malone, AND Ed Sheeran / I’m opening doors for more people,” he and state-sponsored social-media she- protection agency; labels were criticised off the top of the US singles told the BBC in July. “Especially within the nanigans, many of us are much more for overreaching on permissions with their chart over the summer; and ended the year country and the hip-hop community... it’s not aware of digital privacy issues than we Spotify pre-save campaigns; TikTok and crowned as Apple Music’s ‘Song Of The really accepted in either.” Iwere just a few years ago. That’s a good YouTube were punished by the US Federal Year’, the most-streamed song on Amazon For those people hovering at the doors thing, for sure. Trade Commission for flouting child- Music US and the most-thumbed on and for the wider music industry alike, ‘Old But perhaps we in the music industry privacy laws... The list of reminders that Pandora, not to mention a ‘Musical Event Town Road’ was a genuinely important should be spending a bit more time privacy matters for music fans went on. of the Year’ gong at the Country Music moment in 2019. :) thinking about what this means for Meanwhile, a year and a half after its how our businesses operate too. A few introduction, music marketers are still stories this year made it clear that music grappling with the implications of Europe’s companies, too, can face questions about GDPR legislation, and debating whether privacy. the retargeting technologies that have In 2018, Live Nation’s investment in been so key to many of their campaigns in Techstars Music alumnus Identity recent years are going to be shaken up. was seen within the industry as a Or, as Linkfire’s CEO Lars Ettrup clever bet on an inventive technology – put it at our Sandbox Summit conference facial-recognition to speed up entry of in October: “Cookies will die. The way

report ticketholders into venues. In 2019? Instead we do retargeting on individuals today of hailing Live Nation’s cleverness, artists will change drastically over the next six- and privacy campaigners were rising up to-12 months.” :) the 21

ISSUE 426 END-OF-YEAR REPORT 19.12.19 27 28 Taylor’s Wizard of Oz moment Distribution’s evolution Photo: tian kuan on Unsplash aylor Swift is that rare artist who can being ripped back in The Wizard Of Oz, hen Spotify an- turn a business story into a rolling revealing the machinations of the music nounced in 2018 news item in the mainstream media, industry close up – and providing the next that it was beta- as veteran Spotify execs will ruefully generation of artists a crash course in some testing a tool for testify.T But her face-off this year with Scooter of the challenges around rights ownership. Wartists to upload their music Braun and Big Machine Music was on a Swift’s current deal, with Universal directly to its platform, there whole other level. Music Group, ensures (in her words from were a lot of dry mouths in the November 2018 when music distribution business. Yet it was announced) that as we explained earlier, the test “I’ll own all of my master was shut down this year – in recordings that I make Spotify’s words “to lean into the from now on”. Yet her great work our distribution part- back catalogue belonged ners are already doing to serve to Big Machine, including the artist community”. clauses preventing Swift This was just one strand in from re-recording those the evolving distribution market, older albums until late however. Another trend is for the 2020. big streaming services to pick Outraged fans were specific partners to lean in to more concerned with more: the “preferred” distributor blasting Braun’s social- lists of Spotify and Apple Music were good their offerings from Absolute Label Services’ media posts with rat news for those chosen, but less so for those digital marketing packs to Ditto’s new emojis than debating left out in the cold. management arm. There were new players, the legal niceties of The big story in distribution continues to like Secretly Noord getting the old Phonofile ‘reversion of rights’, but be consolidation, however. Universal Music band back together in the Nordics, too. And it’s the latter that are took full ownership of Ingrooves in February; companies like Troy Carter’s Q&A hinted at To recap: Braun (backed by investment increasingly being built into modern-day Downtown Music Publishing took control opportunities to come for firms in the sweet firm Carlyle Group) acquired Big Machine for music contracts. of CD Baby as part of its acquisition of AVL spot between distribution, management and more than $300m in June, sparking a furious Rights reversion was a key theme in the Digital Group in March; SoundCloud bought artist-services. reaction from Swift due to past tangles with Managing Expectations report that the MMF rights company Repost Network (which also This intense activity is driven by the wider Braun. Later in the year, the dispute blew and music:)ally published this year, and it’s handled streaming distribution) in May; ‘artist direct’ trend, with Midia Research up again over Swift’s allegation that Big becoming a make-or-break issue in many and FUGA acquired rights-management suggesting in March that global revenues for Machine was blocking her from performing deals. Swift got to perform her AMAs medley platform Songspace in July. Even collecting artists outside the traditional label system old hits at the American Music Awards, as in the end, but the longer-term ramifications societies were getting in on the act, with had grown by 35% to $643m in 2018. The well as using her back catalogue for an of her dispute in terms of the expectations GEMA recently taking a majority stake in traditional majors are playing in this market,

report upcoming Netflix documentary. of musicians and the deals offered to them Zebralution. rather than just being threatened by it. We Every blow was played out in public, on by labels and publishers will be even more This went hand-in-hand with predict more diversification, consolidation social media, which felt a bit like the curtain important. :) diversification, as distributors expanded and a few surprises in 2020. :) the 22

ISSUE 426 END-OF-YEAR REPORT 19.12.19 29 30 Catalogue shopping booms Middle Eastern promise is clear Photo: Sharon McCutcheon on Unsplash he and North Af- UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. rica (MENA) region has long been “For us, MENA is not just a small region marked out as a region of high like it could be for Apple or Amazon. We growth potential for the music in- really want to build our strong presence dustry.T 2018 ended with Spotify and Deezer here,” he said. “This region is still small both newly-launched in the region, joining in revenues but our interest is driven by Apple Music as global DSPs hoping to make potential. Music streaming penetration is a splash there. very small in Mena, less than 2% of the There weren’t many big numbers coming population, whereas in other markets like out of MENA in 2019, but one small figure Scandinavia it is more than 40%.” offered encouragement. In March, local Deezer’s ambition – backed financially streaming service Anghami revealed that by Kingdom Holding Company and Rotana it now had more than one million paying Group – as well as Anghami’s strong-rooted 018 ended with Sony being given the Music Publishing’s catalogue of over subscribers, out of 21 million active users. business makes MENA a doubly interesting green light to fully acquire EMI Music 6,500 songs, Downtown Music Publishing A million subs may sound small to region, as it’s not one where the biggest Publishing, scooping up the other swallowed up Strictly Confidential and western ears, but it’s evidence of traction not global DSPs can assume dominance. 60% it didn’t own. Two years earlier it Concord took control of Another Victory just in listening, but in building a premium All will remember, though, that the 2had bought out Michael Jackson’s estate’s Publishing. business. As elsewhere in the world, biggest music-streaming service of all, 50% of Sony/ATV for $750m. There is a lot of growth optimism here, converting free users into paying subscribers YouTube, has its own ambitions in MENA. Such accelerated consolidation at the with Research And Markets forecasting the is very much on the agenda in MENA. YouTube Music launched in eight countries major publisher level will slow down for a global market for music publishing will reach October saw Deezer CEO Hans-Holger in the Middle East in September, swelling while for fear of waking the regulators, but $6.5bn in 2025, up from $4.3bn this year. Albrecht offering his own bold ambition of what was already a hyper-competitive 2019 saw independent publishers go into an But the acquisition that perhaps points reaching four million ‘registrations’ in the market in its early stages of streaming acquisition frenzy. to the future is Primary buying a 50% region, driven by key markets including the growth. :) Leading the way here, without question, stake in the Whitney Houston estate in Photo: David Rodrigo on Unsplash was Hipgnosis which was raising serious May – meaning it will share in not just her amounts of funding (£51.1m in August and a publishing and recorded music income but further £231m in October) to go on a major any branding deals and a hologram tour that spending spree that saw it swallow up whole starts next year. This echoes BMG acquiring or partial catalogues of acts and writers as Buddy Holly’s publishing, recording and diverse as The Chainsmokers, Benny Blanco image/name/likeness rights back in 2015. and Timbaland. With publishing rights at the heart of It was given a serious run for its money everything, we could see quote-unquote by Primary Wave whose purchases included traditional publishers now becoming full works by Leon Russell and Bob Ezrin as well 360 operations – and not just for estates.

report as a minority equity interest in Premier Music This will make the multitude of purchases Group. this year seem like an entrée before the full On top of this, ole took 100% of Parallel banquet. :) the 23

ISSUE 426 19.12.19 END-OF-YEAR REPORT 31 Amazon’s voice grows stronger

mazon began 2019 with a surprise: David Israelite publicly criticising it as a some new public data related to its ringleader: “Spotify and Amazon are the bad music business. Well, it said it had actors; they drove the decision to appeal…” signed up “tens of millions” of new He would later round on Amazon’s APrime members over Christmas 2018, while business model for music, arguing that reaching lifetime shipments of 100m Alexa- Prime Music was not only “priced so low, capable devices. songwriters will reap almost no royalties It was left to external sources to provide from its platform”, but that it might violate more direct stats for Amazon Music. In April, legislation “that protects songwriters work the Financial Times reported that Amazon from being bundled with other offerings and had more than 32 million subscribers across essentially used for free”. Such brickbats its Prime Music and Music Unlimited tiers were a relatively new experience for globally. Amazon. Midia Research recently updated that The second cloud concerns the wider stat, claiming that Amazon had 38.3 million societal conversation around big technology subscribers by the end of June, putting companies. Amazon faced new privacy it third behind Apple Music (54.7 million) questions when it emerged that it had a and Spotify (108.1 million). Research firm team listening to and transcribing Echo eMarketer, meanwhile, suggested in March voice-recordings, even though the stated that Amazon Music would be the fastest- reason was to improve Alexa. growing (in percentage terms) music- More recently, more than 1,000 streaming service of all in 2019. musicians joined a protest against Amazon’s Amazon’s growth has been aided by its a new ad-supported free tier and the hi-res little details also counted, from new music commercial relationship with the US commanding share of the smart-speakers Amazon Music HD respectively. commands for Alexa to new playlists and Immigration and Customs Enforcement market outside China. One report in Amazon’s music tiers now range from artist partnerships. agency (ICE), fresh from the controversy February suggested that 70% of the smart free, through the feels-like-free Prime Anyone who scoffed at its small around separating migrant children from speakers in use in the US were Echos, while Music; the $3.99-a-month single-device catalogue when Amazon made its streaming their parents. research firm Canalys’ figures claim Amazon plan for Echo or Fire TV; the $9.99-a-month debut in the US in 2014 with Prime Music There’s no sign yet that established shipped 21.6m Echos in the first nine Music Unlimited; and the $14.99-a-month will have long since eaten their words. There artists are heeding the call to boycott months of 2019, up more than 67% year- Amazon Music HD – with discounts for Prime are two clouds on the horizon though, one Amazon’s music services, but all this was a on-year, making it comfortably the leading members on the latter two. related to music, and the other to Amazon reminder that while it may be a challenger manufacturer. It’s the widest range of options for a more widely. brand in music-streaming praised for its Amazon is big, then, but it’s also being Western DSP, and this was supported by In March, Amazon joined Spotify, Google innovation, Amazon is still a big technology

report thoughtful and methodical with its music (again, thoughtful and methodical) global and Pandora in appealing against the new company at a time when such firms’ streaming strategy. 2019 saw new tiers both expansion, and well-honed marketing to songwriter royalty rates set by the Copyright motives and practices are constantly being at the lower and higher ends of its offering: Amazon’s huge existing customer base. The Royalties Board (see p10), with NMPA boss questioned. :) the 24

ISSUE 426 19.12.19 END-OF-YEAR REPORT 32

beliefs, or hopes, which need to be backed up by research if the industry is to swing behind them. Action, not just talk, What about the big streaming services? Spotify, Apple Music and Amazon did not publicly join the user-centric debate in 2019, but Deezer strengthened its position for user-centric payouts as the model’s main DSP evangelist with its ‘User-Centric Payment System’ plans in September. only listen to Drake, he gets 100% of the Well, we say plans: these were royalties from your sub, and if you don’t hopes too: Deezer wants to launch a listen to him, he gets diddly squat from you. user-centric pilot in one country (France) People have been talking about whether for recorded-music royalties only, in early the user-centric model is a fairer way of 2020 IF it can persuade major labels to paying streaming royalties for several years support such a test. now. The consensus has been that it feels “We’ve fed all our partners with piles of like a fairer method, even if the impact might data. Do we have the answer for every single not be as big (in terms of who gets paid how question? The answer is no. But we still think much) as some people hope. But also that this is a better way of doing it, and until we more research, supported by the industry try, we will not know,” Deezer’s chief content and at least some of the big streaming and strategy officer Alexander Holland told services, was essential. music:)ally at the time. In 2019, we got a bit more chatter. A panel If we’re back here in a year’s time at the Great Escape conference in May writing about the debate getting a little revealed (via Ivors Academy chair Crispin bit louder, it would be a shame. Deezer’s Hunt) that Apple had investigated the likely one-market pilot would be a welcome step effect of user-centric payouts. “They said ‘Be forward, going beyond modelling to get careful: we’ve modelled how this comes out’,” some real-world data on the impacts of he warned. Per Kviman from international user-centric payouts. managers body EMMA suggested that major A successful pilot might inspire the big n this report a year ago, a headline of (or rather, his rightsholders) gets 3% of the labels in smaller markets (like Sweden) three global streaming services to follow ‘User-centric debate gets louder’ was royalties payable from their subscriptions. backed the idea but “will have problems suit. The long-term challenge would be caveated in the first line of the analysis Even if you don’t listen to Drake, in effect driving it through with the US and UK”. coordinating an industry-wide leap from with ‘Well, not that loud still’. We could say 3% of the royalties generated by your In a subsequent interview, Because Music pro-rata payouts to user-centric systems, Imuch the same about 2019, but that means $9.99-a-month are going to him. boss Emanuel de Buretel also came out in with DSPs, labels and (perhaps) publishers the volume is slowly but surely increasing. The user-centric model ditches that support of the user-centric model, claiming and collecting societies moving together. To recap, briefly: streaming services in favour of calculations based on each it might “reduce the share of ‘fake streams’, That surely won’t happen in 2020, but if the

report currently pay out based on a ‘pro-rata’ model individual user, where the royalties ensure a better flow of income between user-centric model has legs, next year will be of an artist’s overall share of streams. If generated by your subscription are divided artists and titles, or promote the diversity of an important one for preparing the ground Drake gets 3% of subscribers’ streams, he only between the artists you listen to. If you musical genres”. Again, though, these are for such a move in the future. :) the 25

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PledgeMusic’s collapse shouldn’t detract of Patreon’s creators in the future. from some of the bright spots for fan-funding Other green shoots included ’s in 2019. Patreon – which describes itself continued value for independent artists; Pledges broken as a ‘membership platform’ rather than Bandzoogle launching a fan-subscription

as 2019 a bad year for crowd- funding? It was certainly a bad year for the artists owed thou- sands (or even tens of thou- Wsands) by PledgeMusic when the company collapsed. It was a slow, very-public fall from grace for the company, with plenty of false hopes along the way. In late January, artists were speaking out about delayed payments and a lack of communication from PledgeMusic, and getting a promise in return that it had “cut its operating expenses nearly in half over the past year” and “overhauled key parts of our financial and operating systems”. The company also hinted at upcoming investment or acquisition of its platform, and said “it is our expectation that payments will be brought current within the next 90 days”. Spoiler: they were not. Some artists did get their money, but despite the return of PledgeMusic was wound up in crowdfunding – had a pretty good year. In feature; new startups like Corite, the company’s co-founder Benji Rogers in in July amid recriminations and questions. January it revealed that it had more than Evershare and ROCCR; and the continued an effort to fix the problems, the decline was UK Music called for the government to step three million patrons (fans) supporting more development of fan-donation or subscription terminal. in, while an investigation by music blog My than 100,000 creators, and predicted that features on platforms like YouTube and In early February PledgeMusic asked Emu is Emo revealed a “solid decade of this support would reach $500m in 2019 Facebook, even if they were focused more for patience, hinting again at “discussions losses” for the company leading up to 2018. alone – doubling Patreon’s lifetime total. on influencers than on musicians. with several interested parties about a In October, court documents revealed that The company also continued its own There was even, in July, a hint that Spotify potential partnership with or acquisition the company entered liquidation with nearly fundraising efforts this year, pulling in $60m is thinking about fan-funding. Its chief of PledgeMusic” and asking for “breathing $9.6m of debts; assets worth just $20k; and from institutional and individual investors premium business officer Alex Norström’s space”. Yet it soon suspended all active “little prospect” that artists would be paid in July, taking its total raised since launch reference to “things that are beyond just ad campaigns, and by May, Rogers was what they were owed. in 2013 to nearly $166m. There’s no danger sales and subscriptions... stuff on top like confirming that those acquisition talks had There still needs to be a proper (and of a PledgeMusic-style downfall for now, micropayments, à la carte...” wasn’t a firm failed. “I wanted to be a part of the efforts to public) post-mortem into how and why although this level of funding brings its declaration of intent, but it did hold out the

report get things back on track but it is obvious now PledgeMusic collapsed, and particularly into own questions about what the ultimate possibility that the worlds of streaming and that too much damage had already been why money paid by fans was not -fenced ‘exit’ might be, and how those investors’ fan-funding may finally collide in 2020, to done,” he said. from the money used to run the business. expectations might intersect with the needs artists’ benefit. :) the 26

ISSUE 426 19.12.19 END-OF-YEAR REPORT 34 35 The rise of ‘Trigger Cities’ Fake music, real concerns

he credit for coining the term ‘trigger engagement in the trigger cities of south- t’s been an exciting last 12 months for mu- cities’ goes to music-analytics firm east Asia and Latin America into momentum sic, what with those new albums from Be- Chartmetric, which published its elsewhere in the world. In 2020, Music Ally yoncé, SZA, and . thoughts on the phenomenon in a expects more campaigns to tap in to these Oh, wait, those weren’t actually new seriesT of blog posts starting in May this year. audiences, and that we’ll be able to trace at Ialbums from those artists. They were part of In a nutshell, trigger cities are (in the least a few new musical stars’ paths to fame the unwelcome trend of ‘fake music’ finding company’s words) “cities that due to back to some clever trigger-cities marketing. its way onto the big streaming services. their socioeconomics, may not be large There’s also a sense of an evolution in The pattern was often the same: a contributors to the global streaming revenue the way our industry uses geographical collection of old bootlegs and rarities by pot that IFPI measures annually” – but which analytics. Once, the thinking rarely went the star, packaged as an album (or podcast have large, hyper-engaged populations beyond using streaming data to plan episodes in Spears’ case) – often under of music-streamers. They can thus be tours. That was good, but the trigger cities a different artist name – and uploaded to springboards for new tracks and artists to theory adds another layer: mining data to Spotify, Apple Music and other DSPs via an break globally. understand which sometimes-unexpected independent distributor. The streaming scale of Mexico City, markets could give a certain artist lift-off, They rarely stayed online for long, so it’s one of the key trigger cities, is hardly a then marketing strategically (and often, hard to suggest that serious financial or secret, but Jakarta, Buenos Aires, Quezon more cheaply) in those places, before reputational damage was done to the artists, City, , Lima and others have not, returning to the data to assess the impact. but the fact that it kept happening was an historically, been seen as places for global Of course, trigger cities has also been annoyance for the industry, including the labels to focus much marketing energy on. canny marketing for Chartmetric itself, unwitting streaming services. Perhaps now, they will be. but the bigger picture is of an industry The onus is on distributors to nip fake Much of this is still theory: labels are continuing to mature in the way it interprets music in the bud as it goes through their still refining their strategies for turning data, and takes action accordingly. :) pipelines. In April, CD Baby announced a Photo: Gede Suhendra on Unsplash deal with audio-fingerprinting firm Magic to spot previously-copyrighted music coming through its system, while in June DistroKid followed suit, but also launched a tool called ‘DistroLock’ for artists to upload and register their unreleased music too, so streams are illegitimate streams: that’s any bootlegs can be spotted. around $300m in potential lost revenue”. As if fake music wasn’t enough, 2019 A single-sourced claim of that nature also saw more chatter about the potential needs backup, but the announcement challenge of fake streams. Spotify booted a the same month of a cross-industry ‘Anti- group of artists from its service in January Stream Manipulation Code of Best Practice’ after a BBC investigation into ‘abnormal suggested that the challenge is real – even

report streaming activity’, while Hopeless Records if details on how DSPs, rightsholders and boss Louis Posen made waves in June with industry bodies plan to crack down on it his claim that “three to four percent of global remain elusive. :) the 27

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platform Viagogo, which had a mixed year. It was buffeted by regulators in the UK, including being pursued (for a time, at least) Scalping the scalpers for contempt of court by the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), and then usic:)ally has always tried to by fans through the authorised platform – themselves playing to crowds with big gaps suspended from Google’s paid-search choose our words carefully when thanks to the latter adding a 10% resale fee. due to touts snapping up swathes of tickets. results for breaching its advertising policies. writing about secondary ticket- It was an important lesson, but it shouldn’t The duo responded by offering ‘rush seating’ A company on the run? So you might ing. Touting (aka scalping) is detract from Kilimanjaro and Sheeran’s for fans willing to turn up on the night and have thought, right up until the news broke Meminently hateable: buying up tickets with ongoing willingness to stick their necks out pay a donation of their choice to the artists’ in November that Viagogo was buying a key the sole intention of selling them on to fans on the touting issue. foundation. rival, eBay’s StubHub, in an all-cash deal for inflated prices. But reselling tickets for We also felt sympathy followed by The chief villain in the eyes of anti- worth $4.05bn. While regulatory approval personal reasons – inability to attend a gig admiration for Tegan and Sara, who found touting campaigners remained secondary has yet to be attained, the prospect is of for example – should not be a problem. Sec- a new ‘supergiant’ of secondary ticketing, Photo: Markus Spiske on Unsplash ondary ticketing itself isn’t problematic, but it with a chequered history of cooperation with is when platforms give touts free reign. regulators and the music industry. 2019 has been – bar the big surprise at FanFair Alliance’s statement calling the the end, which we’ll get to – a positive year deal both “a desperate move from both on both sides of this equation: tackling parties” and “a major concern for both touting and supporting ethical, not-for-profit audiences and music businesses” reflected reselling. the confusion engendered by the news: is On the first of those, we saw the Viagogo on its last legs or becoming even formation of FEAT, a pan-European group more of a menace? connecting the scalper-battling efforts going Either way, it’s an incentive for the efforts on in countries including the UK, France, to forge a strong, ethical secondary market Germany, Spain, Italy and Switzerland; to continue in 2020: a process that will a European Parliament vote in favour of benefit from the engagement of giants like measures to tackle the use of bots to bulk- Ticketmaster, promoters and artists, and buy tickets; Dice’s global expansion; a ‘How bodies like FEAT and FanFair. Plus, there’s to Stop Ticket Touts’ guide for managers the continuing evolution of the primary published by the FanFair Alliance and Music ticketing market, striving to ensure that Managers Forum; and the recent launch tickets end up in the hands of fans rather of a US Congress investigation into the than scalpers, and dealing with the age- secondary-ticketing market. old challenges of finding inventive ways Artists and their teams took action, rather to fill venues that might not have sold out, than just talking. Promoter Kilimanjaro Live while dealing with the demand-vs-supply attracted some criticism for its resale system imbalances for the most popular concerts. for Ed Sheeran’s tour in the summer, when Touting isn’t a problem that can be

report the primary tickets it was making available ‘solved’, but in 2019 the hard work being right up until the day of each concert put in to tackling it felt like it was making undercut the prices of tickets being resold progress. :) the 28

ISSUE 426 END-OF-YEAR REPORT 19.12.19 37 38 Piracy, Don’t boo the blockchain schmiracy! nce upon a time (mid-2017, since mainstream adoption of a technology you ask) blockchain technology starts to take off, and its “broad market was being hailed as the next big applicability and relevance are clearly disruption for the music industry. paying off”. OIt would sweep away unnecessary middle- So, as 2019 ends, we shouldn’t be writing men! It would herald a new era of royalties blockchain off as a failure, but rather transparency! It would empower artists looking for the companies and applications and fans; sort out rightsholders’ missing that will, in time, make it productive for metadata; and pay everyone in glorious our industry. Blokur’s publishing-rights Photo: Luke Southern on Unsplash cryptocurrency! platform; Paperchain’s streaming-payouts Until it didn’t. Blockchain was not (and test; Universal Music’s Amplitude project; et’s not be complacent: some people on prominent pirate sites from various still isn’t) a bogus technology, and it still has Revelator’s artist wallet… there was plenty do still get their music illegally, from countries, to takedowns of stream-ripping several potential applications within the of activity worth monitoring. torrent trackers and/or stream-ripping sites. Convert2MP3 was one of the bigger music industry. There were sites. In March, piracy-tracking firm scalps on the latter front, shutting down in What was bogus controversies LMuso claimed that music-piracy sites at- June under pressure from the IFPI, which were some of the too. Facebook’s tracted 30bn visits in 2018 alone, while in claimed it alone had generated 684m visits claims around proposed Libra September the IFPI revealed that 27% of in the previous year. what it could and cryptocurrency the 34,000 people it surveyed for its ‘Music A decade ago, some people thought would do, and how was backed by Listening 2019’ study said they’d pirated in the recorded-music market was in an quickly it could Spotify – CEO the last month. unstoppable decline. Now it’s music piracy do it. Daniel Ek even Here’s the thing though: both of those that’s in a tailspin, thanks to the efforts In October this suggested studies revealed (although notably they above, as well as the growth of multi-tiered, year, research firm it may have didn’t shout about it) a marked downward legal streaming services. Gartner applied potential for trend. Muso’s year-prior report had claimed The European Union published a report its famous ‘hype fans to pay there were 73.9bn visits to music-piracy sites in October revealing that only 39% of 15-24 cycle’ theory to Photo: Hitesh Choudhary on Unsplash artists directly in 2017, so the 2018 figure was a reduction year-olds intentionally use illegal sources blockchain, and – but swiftly ran of 59.4%. to access music, down from 56% in 2016. pronounced that the technology was “sliding into regulatory walls. Meanwhile, blockchain- Meanwhile, the IFPI’s previous A fair chunk of that demographic group into the trough of disillusionment”. Gartner powered streaming service Audius raised consumer study, in 2018, found that 38% weren’t even born when the original Napster wasn’t talking about music specifically: in eyebrows with its “censorship-resistant” of respondents had pirated in the last filesharing service launched. fact, many people in the music industry were decentralised platform, and questions month – and thus its 2019 figure was down At the turn of this century there were disillusioned with blockchain well before about what that would mean for copyright by 11 percentage points. Music piracy may real fears that illegal music would be the that. takedowns. not have walked the plank entirely, but it’s norm for the next generation of listeners. An important thing about Gartner’s There are still big ideas around shivering far fewer industry-timbers than it Instead, they’re the streaming generation, hype cycle, however, is that it’s a journey. blockchain, but it’s the smaller, partnership-

report used to. and while that brings its own challenges, the Its trough is followed by a ‘Slope of focused projects that will, we think, steer Work continued this year to combat existential dread around piracy is long gone. Enlightenment’ and ultimately a ‘Plateau this technology towards its plateau of piracy in various ways, from ISP-level blocks Good riddance. :) of Productivity’ – the point at which productivity for music. :) the 29

ISSUE 426 19.12.19 END-OF-YEAR REPORT 39 40 Playlists press on Attribution or retribution?

randing and personalisation were the watchwords this year for stream- ing playlists, although neither was a brand new trend. BThe first of those related particularly to Apple, which turned several of its flagship playlists into bona fide brands, moving away from its existing The A-List branding. The A-List: Hip-Hop became Rap Life while The A-List: Alternative became ALT CTRL and The A-List: Dance became danceXL, while a new New Music Daily playlist promised... Photo: Ming Jun Tan on Unsplash well, that name was self-explanatory. Rap Life and New Music Daily also Spotify applied its algorithms to podcasts ttribution (or conversion) data has came in November, with Apple Music, yet spawned shows on Apple Music’s Beats 1 too, with a dedicated Your Daily Podcasts been a sore point for music market- artists were told that they’d only get the radio station, as the company explored the playlist, and (more interestingly) a Your Daily ers for years now. They can track conversion data if they placed Apple Music kind of brand extension that’s become a key Drive playlist blending music with podcast how many fans click or tap through first in the list of services on their smart- part of Spotify’s strategy, albeit with live gigs clips. A clear example of Spotify parking Afrom their smartlinks to streaming services, link landing pages, although they’d also rather than radio shows in the latter’s case. tanks on traditional radio’s lawn. but they can’t tell what they do once they get it when using ‘direct-to-service’ links to Strong, global playlist brands are going There was also its announcement in get there. Do they listen, follow artists and Apple Music. to be ever-more prominent on and off March that some of its editorial playlists add their tracks to their libraries or playlists? Why is this controversial? Because it’s streaming services, and teaching listeners to would be getting a dash of algorithmic Nobody knows. turning access to data into a weapon in ask voice assistants to play them will be one personalisation: Beast Mode, Songs to Sing Well, they didn’t. One of the encouraging the competitive battle between the big of their marketing goals in 2020. in the Shower and others would now have trends of the last 18 months has been the streaming services. If Spotify were to follow Spotify was a pioneer of personalised a large pool of tracks chosen by an editor, efforts of music-marketing firms (Linkfire suit with a similar policy, artists and labels playlists at scale, and 2019 saw it continue before the algorithm narrowed them down especially) and some streaming services to would be caught in the middle. that work. There was Duo Mix for couples, for each listener. plug this knowledge gap. Linkfire kicked that There’s a bigger story brewing here Family Mix for families, and On Repeat and Other trends included Apple’s continued off in March 2018 through its partnership for 2020 too: about what DSPs demand On Rewind to gather people’s recent jams, focus on guest curation, from Mark Ronson, with Pandora, and in 2019 struck similar more generally from labels and artists if for example. the Spice Girls and Marshmello to Gay deals with Anghami and Boomplay. they want to be considered as ‘priority’ Times and Ministry of Sound – although the At our Sandbox Summit conference in partners. latter’s exclusivity recently lapsed. October, CEO Lars Ettrup predicted that his Imagine, for example, if a streaming Meanwhile, Spotify’s external focus was company would be able to attribute 50% of service (or several) demanded top more on helping artists blur the boundaries its traffic within six months, adding that “the placement on smart-links, and prominence between albums and playlists: Billie Eilish, goal of achieving 100% attribution is feasible over rivals in social posts and profiles, before

report Taylor Swift and were among in the very near future”. it would commit on-platform marketing the artists releasing ‘enhanced’ albums with Unfortunately, there may be strings and even playlist support? Labels will be videos and spoken-word added in. :) attached. Linkfire’s biggest such deal yet monitoring this carefully. :) the 30

ISSUE 426 END-OF-YEAR REPORT 19.12.19 41 42

A Blizzard of Data Photo: Markus Spiske on Unsplash The climate emergency

Photo: The New York Public Library on Unsplash

rown men queuing up on social David Byrne, Mel B, Brian Eno, Imogen Heap, media to mock and bully a 16-year- Orbital and Amanda Palmer. aving access to data on artists’ music head Lyor Cohen was the most old girl with Asperger syndrome was “Dear journalists who have called us streams, socials and other per- high-profile exec yet to warn against data one of 2019’s least-edifying political hypocrites, You’re right. We live high carbon formance metrics is good. Under- becoming a proxy for quality A&R in the Gmoments – against plenty of competition. lives and the industries that we are part standing that data enough to take industry. Greta Thunberg had the last laugh, of have huge carbon footprints,” it began. Huseful actions is, obviously, much better. “Right now everybody’s so drunk off the and not just with her Time Person of the “The stories that you write calling us climate 2019 felt like an improvement on this score. data that they’re putting these kids in places Year award. Barbs from right-wing climate- hypocrites will not silence us… We invite all The continued improvement of DSP tools prior to having any artist development,” he sceptics showed that she and her fellow people with platforms and profiles to join us.” like Spotify for Artists, Apple Music for Artists said. “I think if we could potentially dial back climate activists had them rattled, as they The UK’s ‘Music Declares Emergency’ and Next Big Sound, along with third-party and understand that the data is helpful, but ignited a new movement around the climate campaign was a welcome sign of the dashboards from the likes of Chartmetric you also need to be passionate about an emergency. industry coming together to figure out how and Soundcharts, meant that making sense artist and spend time with that artist.” One positive thing from music:)ally’s best to contribute, with labels, artists and of masses of data became… if not easy, New ways to slice and dice music data perspective is that 2019 saw some real festival promoters all on board. We expect then at least easier. are regularly emerging too: Chartmetric’s signs of engagement with this issue from 2020 to see more such initiatives around the Meanwhile, there were new dashboards ‘Cross-Platform Performance’ metric musicians and the music industry. Including world, prompted by artists willing to use their launching from all angles, from collecting (a single metric measuring an artist’s The 1975, who had Thunberg guest on a platforms to talk about the issues (and yes, societies (like PRS for Music) to labels (like performance across a number of streaming track, while recycling old merchandise and about what actions they’re taking in their UMG’s new app for artists). Rather than and social platforms) being just one talking publicly about their efforts around personal and professional lives). standing back and watching artists and example. carbon offsets, non-plastic packaging and In the past, the music industry songwriters become snowblind from data, The industry has come a long way with support for reforestation charities. (music:)ally included) has talked about the labels, services and PROs are actively data in the past five years, but there is plenty Artists sticking their necks out on these issue of piracy being an ‘existential’ one in working to help them. more innovation to come, and plenty more issues are magnets for whataboutery (‘But terms of its impact on the industry. Now

report What the industry does with all its data work to do to ensure that that clear lessons what about your tour flights?’), as was with the planet facing a crisis that really continues to be a conversation-starter, and can be drawn, and acted upon, for the acknowledged in an open letter in October IS existential, the more our industry can not always in a positive sense. YouTube benefit of artists. :) signed by musicians including Thom Yorke, contribute, the better. :) the 31 Music Ally is a music business information and strategy company. We focus on the change taking place in the Music Ally is an ISSUE 426 industry and provide information and insight into every aspect of the business, consumer research analysing 19.12.19 example of perceptive the changing behaviour and trends in the industry, consultancy services to companies ranging from blue journalism at its chip retailers and telecoms companies to start-ups; and training around methods to digitally market your best, with unrivalled artists and maximise the effectiveness of digital campaigns. We also work with a number of high profile music Andrew Fisher, events around the world, from Bogota to and Brighton, bringing the industry together to have a good CEO, coverage of the commonsense debate and get some consensus on how to move forward. Entertainment digital music sector”

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