International Journal of Research in Humanities and Social Studies Volume 5, Issue 11, 2018, PP 24-31 ISSN 2394-6288 (Print) & ISSN 2394-6296 (Online) Sub national mortality trajectory in Kenya: Examining the role of HIV and AIDS interventions Wilson Muema1, Alfred Agwanda2, Lawrence Ikamari3 1School of Business and Economics, Kenya Methodist University 2,3Population Studies and Research Institute, University of Nairobi, Kenya *Corresponding Author: Wilson Muema, School of Business and Economics, Kenya Methodist University. ABSTRACT Kenya has witnessed significant drop in life expectancy since 1984. The decline coincided with the onset of HIV and AID epidemic. Regional variations in life expectancy at birth are also evident in Kenya with some counties exhibiting high life expectancy while infant and childhood mortality rates are low. Regional variation in HIV prevalence is also evident in Kenya. Counties with high HIV prevalence have recorded high infant and childhood mortality. Although mortality projections have been done in Kenya, the role of HIV and AIDS related interventions on county level mortality patterns has not attracted the attention of researchers. This study explores the contribution of HIV related programs on future mortality patterns at sub national level in Kenya. The study makes use of data drawn from the 2009 Kenya population and housing census, the 2012 Kenya AIDS indicator survey and the 2014 Kenya demographic and health survey. The cohort component approach to population projections and trend extrapolation methods are applied in this study. The results indicated that, HIV and AIDS related programs affect mortality at the county level in Kenya. If there was no HIV and AIDS in Kenya, all counties would experience steady increase in life expectancy. When HIV and AIDS prevalence were incorporated in mortality projections, the results indicated that life expectancy will be consistently lower than it would have been if there was no HIV and AIDS. When HIV and AIDS related programs were incorporated in mortality projections, life expectancy at birth was higher than it was in HIV/AIDS only scenario. Based on the finding of this study, it is recommended that future mortality projections should incorporate the effect of AIDS related programs since the study established that they affect mortality patterns. Keywords: Mortality. HIV/AIDS, HIV/AIDS interventions, Projections, Life expectancy INTRODUCTION Wide disparities in life expectancy at birth also exist at the county level in Kenya. According to Mortality situation in a country is a key KNBS (2012), some counties especially those in indicator of the general well-being of its people. former Eastern and Rift Valley region exhibit It can be measured using a number of indicators. low childhood mortality and adult mortality. However, the common indicators are: under five However, life expectancy in these regions is mortality rate (U5MR), maternal mortality rate higher than the existing development indicators and life expectancy at birth. If under five can support. mortality rate (U5MR) is low, it indicates that there is wide coverage of initiatives targeting Existing research has linked change in life child survival. Low U5MR also implies that expectancy witnessed in Kenya over the years to there is high level of socio economic HIV and AIDS (NCPD, 2013). Existing studies development. Low maternal mortality rate have also attempted to incorporate HIV indicates existence of strong health care prevalence in projecting life expectancy at birth facilities and extensive coverage of reproductive in Kenya (CBS, 2002; KNBS, 2012). However, health programs. On the other hand, life the effect of HIV and AIDS interventions on expectancy at birth is a key indicator of health future mortality patterns in Kenya has not conditions of a population and the level of attracted the attention of researchers. Mortality economic development of a nation. High life in Kenya varies by counties. HIV and AIDS expectancy at birth generally denote a healthy prevalence also varies by counties while the nation (Rashidul et al., 2013).There has been a uptake of HIV and AIDS related interventions significant decrease in life expectancy in Kenya. vary to a large extent by counties. International Journal of Research in Humanities and Social Studies V5 ● I11 ● 2018 24 Sub National Mortality Trajectory in Kenya: Examining the Role of HIV and AIDS Interventions OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY considerably by regions in Kenya. Some counties especially those in Rift Valley and The objective of this study is to examine the Eastern region have high life expectancy which effects of HIV and AIDS related interventions fail to match with the existing development on future mortality patterns at sub national level indicators (KNBS, 2012) in Kenya. Empirical studies have indicated that HIV Past Studies on the Relationship between related program interventions lower mortality in HIV/AIDS and Mortality both developed and developing countries. HIV Studies have shown that HIV and AIDS affect infected persons who have access to highly mortality in various ways. HIV positive adults active anti-retroviral therapy (HAART) experience substantially higher mortality than generally have higher survival chances when their counterparts who are HIV sero negative. compared with their counterparts who don’t Children born to HIV sero positive mothers have access to HAART(Martin et., 2009; experience higher infant mortality than those Andreas et al., 2008; Chan et al., 2006). born to HIV sero negative mothers. (Nunn et al., DATA AND METHODS 1997; Gray et al., 1998; Sewankambo et al., 1994; Todd et al., 1997; Wachter, Knodel, and The study makes use of the 2009 Kenya Van Landingham, 2002; Carpenter et al., 1997; population and housing census data (2012), the Hunter et al., 2003; Lewis et al., 2004; Timaeus 2012 Kenya AIDS indicator surveys (KAIS) and and Jasseh, 2004; Zaba et al., 2007; Garenne et the 2014 Kenya demographic and health surveys al., 2007; Clark et al., 2008; Gregson et (KDHS). al.,2007). Although a number of indices can be computed Empirical literature also point that, HIV and to indicate the mortality situation in a country, AIDS affect women more than men. Men and this study focuses on projections of life women infected with HIV have suppressed expectancies at sub national level in Kenya. The immune system and are more likely to suffer projections begin in 2009, the year of the most from opportunistic infections. This in turn current census in Kenya. The projections are increases their odds of death. In sub Saharan then extendedto the year 2030 which has been Africa, HIV is primarily transmitted through earmarked as Kenya’s deadline for achieving a heterosexual union. In these regions HIV national long-term development blue print for prevalence is consistently higher among the creating a globally competitive and prosperous women that in men (PRB, 2006). country with a high quality of life (GoK, 2007). The projections are anchored on the Studies have linked HIV and AIDS with assumptions that, life expectancy should increase in childhood mortality. In Kenya for increase over the years since there has been an example, the reversal in declining childhood improvement in infant and child hood mortality mortality witnessed in the late 1980s and early rates. It is also assumed that since counties are 1990s was attributed to HIV and AIDS (Hill et nested within provinces, and provinces are al., 2001). However, according to data from the nested within the country (Kenya), then the 2008/2009 Kenya demographic and health trajectory of life expectancy at birth for each sex survey (KDHS), U5MR has started declining in in each county will follow that of the parent Kenya. The declining U5MR has been attributed province. Besides, the trajectory of e(0) for each to upscale of government interventions province will follow that of the country. Life programs especially immunization (KNBS, tables generated from the 2009 Kenya 2012). Although there has been a decline in population and housing census data for the childhood mortality in Kenya, there still exist country and for each of the provinces are used wide regional disparities in childhood mortality. as input data. Trend extrapolation method is Data from the 2008/2009 KDHS reveal that applied to the 2009 Kenya population and holding all other factors constant, U5MR is housing census data. Extrapolation method was higher in the regions with the highest HIV deemed to be the most appropriate method prevalence (KNBS, 2015). because of limited data at county level. For each Kenya has also witnessed a steady decline in life projection, the data required included; the base expectancy at birth since 1984 (NCPD, 2013). year, the upper asymptote of life expectancy at The decline in life expectancy was attributed to birth disaggregated by sex; national base year HIV and AIDS endemic. According to the projections of life expectancy at birth and sex KNBS (2012), life expectancy at birth varies specific estimates of county life expectancies at 25 International Journal of Research in Humanities and Social Studies V5 ● I11 ● 2018 Sub National Mortality Trajectory in Kenya: Examining the Role of HIV and AIDS Interventions birth. This is followed by computation of estimated reduction in the complement of County projections of life expectancy at birth. county/province e(0)from t0 to t0+n. then, the The procedure involves forming a ratio of the complement is subtracted from K to obtain an complement of the provincial life expectation at estimate of non e(0) for each county and birth for a launch (base) year as well as that of a province for the year t0+n future year. The ratio formed represent the To estimate the effect of HIV and AIDS extent to which provincial life expectation at associated programs in mortality projections, birth approaches the limit over a period between HIV prevalence per county and the level of the launch year (2009) and the projected year uptake of AIDS related programs like condom (2030).