REPUBLIC OF

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE

FOOD SECURITY SITUATION AS AT 30TH SEPTEMBER, 2010

1.0 HIGHLIGHTS

National maize stocks as at 30th September 2010 stood at 19,948,745 million bags, part of which NCPB holds 3.2 million bags, farmers’ stocks 12,709,730 million bags, traders’ 2,905,919 million bags and Millers 1,218,819 million bags. The National Statutory SGR requirement by end of this Financial Year 2010/2011 is expected to reach 8 Million Bags of maize, half in physical stocks and the other half in cash. The current maize stocks, imports from within the region will continue to replenish the national stocks. South Rift, , , and will complete harvesting in September. Availability and access of maize is therefore expected to be good up to start of main harvest in North Rift. Based on this scenario, a critical period of low supplies will be August 2011 before the early harvest in parts of the country in August 2011. Wheat is estimated to reach 4 million bags this year as compared to last year’s 2.5 million bags. The long rains were adequate and well distributed during the season. Prices at farm level have been fluctuating dropping to KES 1,500 per 90 kg bag at one time. However, with the reduction in volumes reaching world markets due to embargo on exports by leading producers like Russia, local prices have gone up to KES 2,500 per 90 kg bag. Prices of wheat products such as bread are expected to increase gradually due to increased local prices and reduction of wheat supplies in world markets.

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2. WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE “SHORT RAINS” - OCTOBER-NOVEMBER- DECEMBER (OND) 2010 SEASON

The Climate Outlook for the “Short Rains” (October-November-December (OND)) 2010 season indicates that much of the country is likely to experience generally depressed rainfall. The expected depressed seasonal rains are associated with the presence of an evolving La Niña in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean coupled with cooler than average conditions in the western Equatorial Indian Ocean (adjacent to the East African coastline). This La Niña is currently classified as weak to moderate and is expected to strengthen with time. The distribution of the rainfall in time and space is, therefore, expected to be generally poor over most places. Figure 1: Rainfall Outlook for October-December 2010 “Short-Rains” Season Showing depressed rainfall over most parts of the country

Source: MET Department

The specific outlook for October-November-December (OND) 2010 is as follows:

The areas likely to receive near normal rainfall include: the Western Province (, Busia,, Butere, , etc.); (,, Rachuonyo, , Kisii, Gucha, etc.); Parts of (, Nandi, , ); These areas are depicted in light blue/cyan colour in Figure 1.The areas likely to receive near normal rainfall with a tendency to below-normal (depressed rainfall) include: Much of Rift Valley Province (, , , , Samburu, , ,

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Lokichoggio, Lokitaung etc); Central Province (, , , Sagana, Karatina, Maragua, , etc); Province (Kabete, JKIA, Wilson, Moi Air Base);few parts of Eastern Province (Meru, Embu, Chuka, Nyambene etc). These areas are depicted in yellow colour in Figure 1. The areas likely to receive belownormal rainfall (highly depressed rainfall) include North Eastern Province (Ijara, , Elwak, , ); several parts of Eastern Province (, , , , etc); Coast Province (, , , Msabaha, , , Taveta, etc).

3. IMPACT OF THE RAINFALL PERFORMANCE ON FIELD CROPS

Table1: Crop situation

Crop Stage of growth Crop performance Field activities concerning the Remarks crop

Maize Maturity to harvesting and The planted Short Harvesting and post harvest Harvesting is continuing in North Rift Valley drying in most parts of the Rain cop is doing handling. Weeding for Short region. Harvesting complete in Nyanza. country.Crop planted for well so far. Rains has started in Rift valet Western and Central regions. short rains in Rift Valley and Nyanza. Farmers preparing land for Short rains in coast and Nyanza has Weeding irrigated areas of coast and central regions. germinated in region of Taveta, Bura and Hola Main activity is post harvest handling in areas with the crop in good that have harvested. condition.

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Wheat Mature/drying up in parts A crop is doing well Land preparation and planting Harvesting in Rift Valley Province near of Rift Valley and Eastern in most areas. in Central Kenya and parts of complete in Narok but yet to start in N/Rift. Kenya region. Rift Valley regions , Harvesting has commenced in Eastern Germination and tillering in Harvesting to commence in province. Central region for Short Eastern Rain crop. Physiological Region. Maturity in other parts

Beans Germination to weeding for Harvesting and drying and Post harvest and marketing is the main activity. short rains crop. threshing in most areas. Short Harvesting over for the long rains crop. rains crop being planted in Rift valley and Nyanza regions.

Irish Harvesting of Long rain Good performance Harvesting is the main activity Harvesting has started and planting are the key potatoes crop is complete in central for the long rains crop. activities. Farmers preparing to province. L and Preparation for Short Plant short rains crop. The Short rins crop is rains crop in central province. germinating in the Rift In the Rift valley region region planting and weeding

Sorghum Maturity to Harvesting in Good performance Crop harvested in most Harvesting has started in Eastern & Western Eastern province. Heading parts.Land preparation and Kenya and coast in western Kenya planting for Short Rains in dough stage-drying in Nyanza ,Western and parts of central province. Rift Valey. . Land preparation for Short rains ,planting and weeding in parts of Rift Valley region

Millet Harvesting Crop is good Harvesting almost complete for Post Harvest management is the main activity Drying & harvesting in Long Rains. for Long Rains crop. central province. Harvesting is complete in Nyanza. Short Rains -planting & weeding in Nyanza and Rift regions.

4. INFLOWS (90KG BAG) FROM , TANZANIA AND ETHIOPIA IN THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER 2010

TABLE 2: MAIZE AND BEANS INFLOWS

BORDER Maize (90Kg bag) Beans ( 90Kg bag) POINT

Current Cumulative Current Cumulative Months’ since Months’ since January Inflows January Inflows Busia 28,000 178,000 5,400 46,905 Malaba 26,500 28,829 9,865 10,346 Suam 200 30,376 442 1,629

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Taveta 987 36,743 1,521 26,012 Moyale 0 263,138 105 3,333,349 Tarakea 0 20,803 0 1,160 0 0 3,050 33,200 TOTAL 55,687 557,889 20,383 3,452,601

5. MAIZE STOCKS

TABLE 3: MAIZE STOCKS AS AT 30th SEPTEMBER 2010

Farmers’ Traders’ Province Stocks Stocks Millers’ Stocks NCPB Total

Western 1,489,057 298,465 682,453 - 2,460,128 Nyanza 2,475,531 525,767 39,050 - 3,042,280 3,993,201 799,625 149,385 - 4,942,211 R/Valley

central 939,039 269,768 153,253 - 1,362,060 N/Eastern 540 4,116 368 - 5,124 Eastern 3,011,809 927,620 187,729 - 4,044,882 Coast 796,880 66,848 - 863,728 Nairobi 3,673 13,710 6,581 - 23,964

NCPB 0 0 0 3,204,368 3,204,368 Total 12,709,730 2,905,919 1,218,819 3,204,368 19,948,745

There is a slight increase of 0.5% of total stocks in September compared to the month of August. This scenario is attributed to current harvests in North-rift, complete harvests in Eastern, coast, western, Nyanza and central provinces. Furthermore, increased national consumption seems to have lowered the replenishment rate of the maize stocks.

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Maize Stocks held by stakeholhers

16%

6% Farmers Traders Millers 15% 63% NCPB

Figure 2: Percentage of Maize stocks with stakeholders in Sept 2010

Increase in stocks held by millers more doubled in September compared to the month of August, this attributed to increased maize supply in the market which suppressed market prices

Figure 3: Percentage of Maize stocks with stakeholders in August 2010

6. MAIZE BALANCE SHEET FOR NINE MONTHS

Table 4: Maize Balance Sheet for 30th September 2010 to 30TH June 2011

th Stocks as at 30 September 2010 (bags 90kg) 19,948,745 Imports: a) Total East Africa Imports (cross border trade) expected between 30th sept 1,500,000 2010 and 30th June 2011

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b) Japanese grant through the KR already in the country 300,000

Expected harvest between 30th September 2010 and 30th June 2011: 19,903,709 a) Long rains 3,000,000 b) Short rains Post -harvest losses 10% 4,465,454 NATIONAL AVAILABILITY as at 30th June 2011 ( bags 90kg) 40,187,208 Exports to: - Total exports to East Africa - Exports outside the region - Total Exports - NATIONAL CONSUMPTION at a monthly rate of 3.5 million bags for the current 31,500,000 population of 38 million people ( 30th September 2010 and 30th June 2011- 9 months) Maize Balance as at 30th June 2011 (bags 90kg) 8,872,208

From the balance sheet above, National Maize stocks are expected to be 9 million bags as at end of June 2011. This is adequate to cover 2.5 months beginning July 2011 up to mid of September 2011. There may be a short fall in the projected 3 million bags in short rains if the forecasted dry spell between October and December come to pass as predicted. The 9 million envisaged at end of June 2011 might then have to be revised downwards during the period.

6.1. TABLE 5: BEANS STOCKS AS AT 30th September 2010

Province Farmers’ Stocks Traders’ Stocks NCPB Total Western 171023 115780 0 286,803 Nyanza 255,859 145159 - 411,558 R/Valley 442,274 133,890 - 576,164

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Central 159,426 87,269 - 246,695 N/Eastern 0 0 - 0 Eastern 338,216 132,405 - 435,172 Coast 5,207 11,533 - 16,740 Nairobi 1,005 7,811 - 8,816 NCPB 0 0 24,666 24,666 Total 1373010 633,847 24,666 2,006,614

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CROP STATISTICS Table 6: Maize TARGETS ACHIEVEMENTS

Province AREA IN HA PRODUCTIONS IN BAGS AREA IN HA PRODUCTIONS IN BAGS

LR SR TOTAL LR SR TOTAL LR SR TOTAL LR SR TOTAL 2010 2010 LR+SR 2010 2010 LR+SR 2010 2010 LR+SR 2010 2010 LR+SR Rift Valley 663,705 97,085 760,790 15,265,215 2,718,380 17,983,595 642,185 36,440 678,625 25,096,328 464,650 25,560,978 Nyanza 175,453 87,000 262,453 3,145,715 565,500 3,711,215 226,377 70167 226,377 4,702,744 0 4,702,744 Western 232,975 50,521 283,496 3,494,625 656,773 4,151,398 209,211 3,456 212,667 3,829,480 0 3,829,480 Central 107,725 85,605 193,330 2,349,086 1,027,260 3,376,346 98172 0 98172 1,755,776 0 1,755,776 Eastern 247,674 270,152 517,826 3,477,821 1,350,760 4,828,581 233,145 0 233,145 2,724,168 0 2,724,168 Coast 111,083 60,187 171,270 1,555,162 421,309 1,976,471 111973 0 111973 1,723,149 1723149 N/ Eastern 5,450 5,350 10,800 14,950 11,000 25,950 2,059 0 2,059 8,240 0 8,240 Nairobi 798 420 1,218 3,360 9,542 12,902 468 0 468 12,569 0 12,569

Total 1,544,863 656,320 2,201,183 29,305,934 6,760,524 36,066,458 1,523,122 110,063 1,563,486 39,852,454 464,650 40,317,104

Status of long rains harvest: Harvesting is complete in Nyanza, parts of Western , Eastern, Central and coast. Harvesting has started in North-rift and is expected to continue up to the end of January 2011.

Table 7: Beans 9

TARGETS ACHIEVEMENTS Province AREA IN HA PRODUCTIONS IN BAGS AREA IN HA PRODUCTIONS IN BAGS

LR SR TOTAL LR SR TOTAL LR SR TOTAL LR SR TOTAL 2010 2010 LR+SR 2010 2010 LR+SR 2010 2010 LR+SR 2010 2010 LR+SR Rift Valley 242,510 109,300 351,810 1,940,080 874,400 2,814,480 223,411 33,254 256,665 1,537,400 182,071 1,719,471 Nyanza 163,930 109,358 273,288 1,178,411 780,397 1,958,808 102,935 24585 132,147 679,705 679,705 Western 125,550 37,900 163,450 1,004,400 265,300 1,269,700 99099 11033 110132 421538 420720 Central 59,100 54,443 113,543 354,600 326,658 681,258 64334 64334 351262 351262 Eastern 157,029 157,486 314,515 1,068,282 1,043,476 2,111,758 129,857 0 129,857 875,425 0 875,426 Coast 3,343 1,559 4,902 20,058 9,354 29,412 1799 60 1859 13347 0 13347 N/ Eastern 140 140 280 140 140 280 17 0 17 0 0 0 Nairobi 438 305 743 1,752 1,220 2,972 345 0 345 6,316 0 6,316

Total 752,040 470,491 1,222,531 5,567,723 3,300,945 8,868,668 621,452 68,932 695,356 3,884,993 182,071 4,066,247

Bean harvest is complete nationally with production achievement of 3.5 million bags. Losses were reported through rotting of mature crop due to heavy rains at the stage of harvesting. This lowered production from the expected 5.6 million bags.

Table 8: Wheat

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TARGETS ACHIEVEMENTS Province AREA IN HA PRODUCTIONS IN BAGS AREA IN HA PRODUCTIONS IN BAGS

LR SR TOTAL LR SR TOTAL LR SR TOTAL LR SR TOTAL 2010 2010 LR+SR 2010 2010 LR+SR 2010 2010 LR+SR 2010 2010 LR+SR Rift Valley 112,665 8,050 120,715 3,429,240 164,870 3,594,110 119,352 50 119,402 4,259,665 1,000 4,260,665 Western 57 - 57 1,539 - 1,539 50.5 0 50.5 Central 7,714 2,899 10,613 160,045 84,410 244,455 5565.2 0 5565.2 64503 0 64,503 Eastern 7,940 12,400 20,340 166,740 223,200 389,940 8,607 0 7,117 395,702 0 320,850

Total 128,376 23,349 151,725 3,757,564 472,480 4,230,044 133,575 50 132,135 4,719,870 1,000 4,646,018

Narok region has harvested the long rains crop which is estimated at 3 million bags. North Rift has started harvesting. This production is lower than target for long rains of 3.7 million bags. However, this year’s crop is expected to surpass last year’s production of 2.5 million bags of Wheat.

Table 9: Irish Potatoes

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TARGETS ACHIEVEMENTS Province AREA IN HA PRODUCTIONS IN BAGS AREA IN HA PRODUCTIONS IN BAGS

LR SR TOTAL LR SR TOTAL LR SR TOTAL LR SR TOTAL 2010 2010 LR+SR 2010 2010 LR+SR 2010 2010 LR+SR 2010 2010 LR+SR Rift 35,559 25,647 61,206 438,451 286,641 725,092 Valley 35,977 3,803 39,780 451,248 48,317 499,565 Western 6,435 6,415 12,870 124,725 125,375 250,300 5802 8185 84436 84436 Central 45,768 40,275 86,043 503,448 322,200 825,648 4,327.00 0 4,327.00 213,270 0 213,270 Eastern 12,779 13,571 26,350 51,116 81,426 132,542 12,416 0 12,416 309,632 0 309,632 Nairobi 85 63 148 273.8 211 480.5 82 0 82 397 0 397 Total 201,322 172,084 373,446 2,237,160 1,632,356 3,867,164 58,522 3,803 64,790 1,058,586 48,317 1,107,300

Long rains harvest is now over with 1,058,586 bags of 100kg being released out of an estimated target of 2,237,160 bags of 100kg. This represents 47% achievement in production.

Table 10: Rice

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TARGETS ACHIEVEMENTS Province AREA IN HA PRODUCTIONS IN BAGS AREA IN HA PRODUCTIONS IN BAGS

LR SR TOTAL LR SR TOTAL LR SR TOTAL LR SR TOTAL 2010 2010 LR+SR 2010 2010 LR+SR 2010 2010 LR+SR 2010 2010 LR+SR Rift Valley 24 9 33 820 286 1,106 8.5 0 8.5 196 0 196 Nyanza 7,595 3,720 11,315 253,860 249,280 503,140 1865 413 2163 454,790 0 454,790 Western 1,200 470 1,670 32,400 11,280 43,680 826 187 1013 9092 0 0 Central 1,560 9,802 11,315 79,900 667,937 747,837 2046 0.62 2046 107626 107626 215252 Coast 2,217 357 2,574 39,700 6,940 46,640 2749 12 2761 29799.5 0 29800 N/ 12 0 12 240 240 Eastern 75 75 150 750 750 1,500 0 Total 10,454 14,076 24,483 407,430 936,473 1,343,903 7505.72 612.62 8003.3 601743.5 107626 700277.5

Long rains harvest is now over with 601,743 bags of 90kg being released out of an estimated target of 407,430 bags of 90kg.

DEVELOPMENT OF IMPROVED TRADITIONAL CROPS

The Ministry has continued to assist farmer’s access quality materials of these crops such as cassava, sorghums, millets, cowpeas. Acreage and yields of these crops have increased in the recent past and this has helped reduce dependence on maize as staple food.

Table 11: Sorghum

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TARGETS ACHIEVEMENTS Province AREA IN HA PRODUCTIONS IN BAGS AREA IN HA PRODUCTIONS IN BAGS

LR SR TOTAL LR SR TOTAL LR SR TOTAL LR SR TOTAL 2010 2010 LR+SR 2010 2010 LR+SR 2010 2010 LR+SR 2010 2010 LR+SR Rift Valley 18,332 5,546 23,878 247,038 69,848 316,886 12,389 723 13,112 134,035 5,613 139,648 Nyanza 88,810 32,713 121,523 1,065,720 359,843 1,425,563 50,475 1552 52,027 671362 671362 Western 22,130 9,780 31,910 287,690 127,140 414,830 17,623 19993 163580 163580 Central 951 891 1,842 6,340 7,070 13,410 749.4 0 749.4 3374.4 0 3374.4 Eastern 70,431 90,397 160,828 567,030 742,534 1,309,564 50812 0 50811.8 363798.4 0 363798 Coast 1,388 1,143 2,531 12,492 10,287 22,779 50,811 0 50,811 363,798 0 363,798 N/ Eastern 6,250 6,150 12,400 9,375 9,225 18,600 1,115 0 1,115 2,675 0 2,675 Total 208,292 146,620 354,912 2,195,685 1,325,947 3,521,632 183,974 2,275 188,619 1,702,623 5,613 1,708,235

Long rains harvest is now over with 1,702,623 bags of 90kg being released out of an estimated target of 2,195,685 bags of 90kg. This represents 77% achievement in production.

Table 12: Finger millet

TARGETS ACHIEVEMENTS Province AREA IN HA PRODUCTIONS IN BAGS AREA IN HA PRODUCTIONS IN BAGS

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LR SR TOTAL LR SR TOTAL LR SR TOTAL LR SR TOTAL 2010 2010 LR+SR 2010 2010 LR+SR 2010 2010 LR+SR 2010 2010 LR+SR Rift Valley 12,674 2,253 15,771 114,066 15,771 129,837 9,438 830 10,184 80,058 5,486 85,544 Nyanza 18,239 14,785 33,024 145,912 88,710 234,622 9845.5 3520 13365.5 95188.5 0 95188.5 Western 6,431 2,513 8,944 77,172 20,104 97,276 5,459 0 5458.7 45502 0 40426 Central 91 84 175 371 365 736 44.9 0 44.9 176.45 0 176.45 Eastern 42,224 43,596 85,820 250,226 248,991 499,217 15,420 0 15,420 118,697 0 118,697 Coast 404 250 654 3,636 2,000 5,636 174.7 0 174.7 472.1 0 472.1 Total 80,063 63,481 144,388 591,383 375,941 967,324 40,382 4,350 44,648 340,094 5,486 340,504

Long rains harvest is now over with 340,094 bags of 90kg being released out of an estimated target of 591,383 bags of 90kg. This represents 57% achievement in production.

Table 13: Cassava

TARGETS ACHIEVEMENTS

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Province AREA IN HA PRODUCTIONS IN BAGS AREA IN HA PRODUCTIONS IN BAGS

LR SR TOTAL LR SR TOTAL LR SR TOTAL LR SR TOTAL 2010 2010 LR+SR 2010 2010 LR+SR 2010 2010 LR+SR 2010 2010 LR+SR Rift 923 516 1,439 15,364 10,307 25,671 Valley 828 44 872 15,658 1,348 17,006 Nyanza 10,458 6,090 16,548 112,315 64,630 176,945 6362.9 2277 8846.9 80140.5 80140.5 Western 20,731 12,342 33,073 290,234 135,762 425,996 79,94 2,732 10,729 55,110 55,110 Central 596 448 1,044 7,332 5,725 13,057 328.5 0 328.5 2429.5 0 2429.5 Eastern 6,632 8,576 15,208 54,305 75,544 129,849 3,477 0 3,429 31,588 0 31,588 Coast 17,366 5,513 22,879 323,320 110,260 433,580 9655 20 9675 46752 0 46752 Total 56,706 33,485 67,312 802,870 402,228 1,205,098 20,651 5,073 33,880 231,678 1,348 233,026

Long rains harvest is now over with 231,678 bags of 100 kg being released out of an estimated target of 802,870 bags of 100kg. This represents 29% achievement in production.

8. MARKET PRICES

Table 14: Maize Price Trends in Major Markets Nairobi Month Eldoret Kisumu Mombasa Machakos Karatina Kakamega Garissa

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Jan 2010 2,700 2,600 2,400 2,312 2,790 2,700 2,600 3,150 Feb 2010 2,500 2,600 2,400 2,125 2,610 2,500 2,600 3,150 Mar 2010 2,000 2,600 2,400 1,920 2,340 2,200 2,900 3,150 April 2010 1,700 2,600 2,200 2,200 2,070 1,900 2,500 3,150 May 2010 1,400 1,700 2,000 1,600 1,710 1,900 2,200 3,600

June 2010 1,400 1,700 1,800 1,650 1,620 1,300 1,800 3,150 1,680 July 2010 1,600 1,700 1,600 1,650 1,620 1,300 3,150

August 2010 1,600 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,350 1,400 1,700 3,150 1,350 September 2010 1,650 1,600 1,400 1,440 1,300 3,150

Wholesale prices have dropped in most of the markets except in Garissa where it remained high in relation to previous months.

Table 15: Beans Price Trends in Major Markets Nairobi Month Eldoret Kisumu Mombasa Machakos Karatina Kakamega Garissa (Njiru)

Jan 2010 9,000 6,400 4,500 4,568 6,300 5,200 4,800 7,200 Feb 2010 9,000 6,400 4,500 4,368 6,300 5,000 4,800 7,200 Mar 2010 9,000 6,400 4,600 4,528 6,300 4,800 5,000 7,200

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April 2010 4,800 6,400 4,800 4,600 6,300 4,800 4,400 7,200 May 4,500 6,400 4,600 4,700 4,900 4,800 3,800 7,200 June 2010 4,500 6,000 5,000 4,385 5,580 4,900 3,600 7,200 4,900 3,600 July 2010 4,000 6,000 3,400 6,660 5,580 7,200

August 2010 4,300 6,000 4,800 7,650 5,220 4,800 4,500 6,300 September 5,500 4500 4,800 5,850 5,000 4,400 5,400 2010

There was minimal increase in prices in September compared to August 2010 prices.

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Table 16 (a) : Average Maize Flour prices

City/Town Nairobi Mombasa Embu Nakuru Week Average Average Average Average Average Brand Jogoo Extra 76 81 66 Hostess 84 98 87 90 82 Ugali Afya 126 122 125 123 Maycon 71 67 70 M/Choice 70 - 60 Posho Mill 41 60 48 Ingasi - Bahari - Budget - Chania Harisi 77 - Cosmos 65 58 Dola 65 - 60 Heri 53 Hodari - Jogoo 67 65 66 70 63 Jambo - Jimbi 68 - Jembe 66 47 - Jahazi - Njema 65 60 62 Ndovu 64 67 58 Nzau - Pembe 69 65 63 Soko 62 68 62 Sana 58 - Shujaa 69 - Taifa 53 - Tima TSS Zawandi

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Table 17 (b): Average Maize Flour Prices . City/Town Lodwar Malarlal Makueni Garissa Wajir Week average average average average average average Brand Jogoo Extra 74 100 Hostess 95 95 91 107 140 Ugali Afya 110 131 150 Maycon - - 90 M/Choice - - Posho Mill 80 43 60 40 80 80 Ingasi - - Bahari 100 70 - - 90 120 Budget - - 90 Chania Harisi - - Cosmos 72 70 75 120 Dola - - 90 120 Heri - - 70 Hodari 100 - - 90 Jogoo 100 86 75 72 90 120 Jambo - - 85 Jimbi 70 - 80 Jembe 70 - 71 90 Jahazi - - 90 Njema - 70 80 Ndovu 70 - - 80 Nzau - 75 Pembe 70 69 90 Soko 68 - Sana - - Shujaa - - 90 Taifa - - Tima - - TSS - - zawandi - -

There was a continued drop in average prices of the common maize brands in the selected towns with a 2 Kg packet selling at Ksh 62 down from Ksh 65 recorded in August 2010. In Marginal districts the average price had a drop to Ksh 86 from Ksh 89 in September 2010. “Posho” Unga remained low with the lowest price recorded in Makueni town at Ksh 40.

9. CONCLUSION

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The current maize stocks of 20 million bags, imports from within the region and the harvests between now and end of March 2011 will last up to mid September 2011 if the short rains will be adequate. This therefore means that there will be no maize shortage in the country before August 2011. The NCPB Warehouse receipt and commodity Exchange System will assist in taking the surplus farmer produce for storage to await better market prices.

Maize production for the short rains could be affected negatively if there will be drought as forecasted by the Kenya Meteorological Department. Up-scaling and distribution of the drought tolerant improved traditional crops will play a big role in the short rains, especially in Eastern, Coast and parts of Central Provinces where Short rains is normally their main season. In view of the forecasted poor rains in these three regions, and near normal short rains in Western Kenya, farmers in Nyanza, Western and South Rift should take advantage of the rains and plant fast maturing crops so as to cushion against deficits expected in Eastern, Central and Coast.

Wheat production is estimated to reach 4 million bags this year compared to 2.5 million bags last year. There have been good rains in Narok area and North Rift. Harvesting in Narok is near completion while North Rift expects to start in September. Farm gate prices for local wheat have risen from Khs 1,500 - 1,800 to the current rate of Khs 2,600 per 90 kg bag. This price may remain high for a while as imports drop due to low supplies in world market occasioned by drought and fires in Russia and exports bans by some wheat producing countries.

Source: Food Security Department, Ministry of Agriculture.

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