How Does Terrorism End?

How does Terrorism End?

A case study analysis of the MILF, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.

Master thesis

Thijmen Robert Hamer s1610481

Crisis and Security Management Leiden University June 2016

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I wish to thank my supervisor, Alastair Reed, for his good advice and continued support.

ABSTRACT

This Master thesis describes the case of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) and its struggle for independence. The conflict between the MILF and the government of the republic of the Philippines (GRP) that stretched from ca 1980 to 2014 was used to answer the question “How does terrorism end through a political process?” This case was first placed into a historical context. Then, different lenses (State, group and context) were applied to the case that was divided into four distinctive phases. This relied on four important theoretical concepts derived from literature. These are: greed and grievance, spoiler roles, negotiation strategies and protracted social conflict. This led to the following main findings:

 The main reason why the MILF could continue the Moro struggle after the MNLF had agreed to peace, was the continuance of the Moro grievances.  An acknowledgment by the government that the MILF was here to stay, opened up the possibility of negotiations.  Militarization and internationalization of the conflict was detrimental to any peace, and served as a clear spoiler.  Separating the radical terrorist elements from the more moderate rebels and international oversight was crucial for creating conditions for substantive and serious negotiations.  Small steps in the negotiation process work better than comprehensive deals.  A convergence or inclusive strategy works better than a divisive and exclusive strategy.  A clear projection of the benefits of peace should be in place.  A stalemate which was not satisfactory for both parties but which they believed could only be changed by politics.  International involvement in the diplomatic process to create trust and mutual understanding between the parties.

Table of Contents

ABSTRACT ...... 4 List of abbreviations ...... 7 CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION ...... 10 1.1. Introduction ...... 10 1.2. General outline of this thesis ...... 11 1.3. Literature review ...... 11 1.3.1. Terrorism, a complex area of study ...... 12 1.3.2. Observations from quantitative research ...... 14 1.3.3. Asymmetrical conflicts: causes and dynamics ...... 17 1.3.4. Ending conflict non-violently ...... 23 1.3.4.4 Using negotiations for other ends than peace ...... 30 1.4. Research Design ...... 31 1.4.1. Main theoretical considerations and strategies relevant to this case...... 31 1.4.2. Framework of analysis ...... 31 1.4.3 Method ...... 32 1.4.4. Case selection ...... 34 CHAPTER 2. THE CASE OF THE MORO ISLAMIC LIBERATION FRONT ...... 35 2.1. Historical background of the Moro-Philippine conflict...... 35 2.1.1. Islamic and Christian colonization of the Philippines ...... 35 2.1.2. American colonization: sowing the seeds for conflict ...... 37 2.1.3. World War II, a period of reconciliation and Philippine independency ...... 40 2.1.4. Filipino rule: from an uneasy peace to overt conflict, 1946-1996 ...... 40 2.2. Starting negotiations and Estrada’s all-out war ...... 47 2.2.1. Timeline of events ...... 47 2.2.2. Context ...... 49 2.2.3. State...... 51 2.2.4. Group ...... 54 2.2.5. Main observations ...... 57 2.3. Arroyo and the global war on terror (2001-2005) ...... 59 2.3.1. Timeline of events ...... 59 2.3.2. Context ...... 62 2.3.3. State...... 67 2.3.4. Group ...... 71

2.3.5. Main observations ...... 73 2.4. Negotiations center around the topic of ancestral domain (2005-2010) ...... 75 2.4.1. Timeline of events ...... 75 2.4.2. Context ...... 79 2.4.3. State...... 83 2.4.4. Group ...... 90 2.4.5. Main observations ...... 92 2.5. New energy and building trust under Benigno Aquino (2010-2014) ...... 94 2.5.1. Timeline of events ...... 94 2.5.2. Context ...... 96 2.5.3. State...... 101 2.5.4. Group ...... 104 2.5.5. Main observations ...... 106 CHAPTER 3. UNDERSTANDING THE SUCCESS OR FAILURE OF THE MILF-PHILIPPINE PEACE PROCESS ...... 108 3.1. Introduction ...... 108 3.2. Different lens perspectives ...... 108 3.3. Within-case comparison ...... 109 3.4 Connections to theory ...... 111 3.4.1. Greed and Grievance theory ...... 111 3.4.2. Spoilers ...... 114 3.4.3. Negotiation strategies and tactics ...... 116 3.4.4. Protracted social conflict ...... 119 3.5 Conclusions ...... 120 3.6 Recommendations...... 122 3.7 Reflection...... 123 BIBLIOGRAPHY ...... 125 Annex ...... 132

List of abbreviations

AFP Armed Forces of the Philippines

AHJAG Ad Hoc Joint Action Group

ARMM Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao

ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations

ASG Abu Sayyaf Group

BBL Bangsamoro Basic Law

BDA Bangsamoro Development Agency

BIAF Bangsamoro Islamic Armed Forces

BIFF Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters

BIMP-EAGA Brunei-Indonesia-Malaysia-Philippines East Asia Growth Area

BJE Bangsamoro Juridical Entity

BMLO Bangsa Moro Liberation Front

BPE Bangsamoro Political Entity

CAB Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro

CAFGU Citizen Armed Force Geographical Unit

CCCH Coordination Committee on the Cessation of Hostilities

CPLA Cordillera People’s Liberation Army

CPP Communist Party of the Philippines

CVO Civilian Voluntary Organization

EDSA Epifanio de los Santos Avenue

ETA Euskadi Ta Askatasuna

FAB Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro

FPA Final Peace Agreement

FTO Foreign Terrorist Organizations

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GRP Government of the Republic of the Philippines

ICFM Islamic Conference of Foreign Ministers

ICG International Crisis Group

IMT International Monitoring Team

IPRA Indigenous Peoples Rights Act

IRA (section 2.4.2) Irish Republican Army

IRA Internal Revenue Allotment

ISF International Security Forces (from the MILF)

JI Jemaah Islamiyah

KM Kabataan Makabayan (Communist youth wing)

LMT Local Monitoring Team

MIM Muslim (later Mindanao) Independence Movement

MIPT Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism

MILF Moro Islamic Liberation Front

MNLF Moro National Liberation Front

MOA-AD Memorandum of Agreement – Ancestral Domain

NATO North-Atlantic Treaty Organization

NDF National Democratic Front (part of Communist movement)

NGO Non-governmental organization

NISP National Internal Security Plan

NPA New People’s Army

NSBC Philippines Statistics Authority

OIC Organization of the Islamic Conference

OPAPP Office of the Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process

PDAF Priority Development Assistance Fund

PDI Philippine Daily Inquirer

PLO Palestinian Liberation Organization

PNP Philippine National Police

PSC Protracted Social Conflict

RPM-P Rebolusyonaryong Partido ng Manggagawa ng Pilipinas (Communist)

RSM Rajah Solaiman Movement

SPCPD Southern Philippines Council for Peace and Development

SZOPAD Special Zone of Peace and Development

UN United Nations

UNSC United Nations Security Council

USA United States of America

USIP United States Institute for Peace

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

1.1. Introduction

Terrorist groups are one the most pressing concerns for today’s society. Almost on a daily basis, attacks happen somewhere in the world. Although casualties are deeply distressing, it is the fear that these attacks cause that can disrupt society. The recent events in France 1and Belgium2 have shown that complete cities can come to a standstill because of an attack. The study of terrorism3 aims at building a theoretical and scientific foundation to understand the rise and fall of terrorist groups. Since the National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism (MIPT) started to collect and combine data about terrorist groups in 1968 until 2006, 648 groups have ended (Jones & Libicki, 2008). Scientists have devoted much time on explaining the rise of terrorism, employing both quantitative and qualitative studies (see chapter 1.2). However, on the ending of terrorism, information is scarce (Jones & Libicki, 2008),(Cronin, 2009). It is for this reason that the case of the MILF, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, is of particular interest. The conflict between the separatist Muslim groups and the Government of the Republic of the Philippines (GRP) is based on a fight for autonomy that has lasted for almost four decades (1969– 2014). If we broaden the scope to include all violent interactions throughout history, the conflict between the Christian Filipino’s and the Muslim Filipino’s (henceforth Moros4) population is already ongoing for more than four centuries. The militant MILF movement was founded in 1984 by Hashim Salamat (Jubair, 1999; Gomez, 2000). The MILF came to replace the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) as the most important Moro resistance movement after it had signed a peace with the government in 1996 (Jubair, 1999; Gomez, 2000). Over the years, many violent clashes between the MILF and the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) have occurred, many times disrupting the continued attempts that were made to resolve the conflict. On March 27, 2014, the Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB) peace deal between the Philippine government and the MILF was signed. Notwithstanding the frequent relapses into conflict after peace deals (Ramsbotham, Woodhouse, & Miall, 2011)), we can

1 November 2015 2 22 March 2016 3 For a definition see chapter 1.2 4 This term was introduced by the Spanish. It referred to their Muslim opponents which conquered large parts of present day Spain. The Muslim Filipino’s now use the term with pride, as it distinguishes them from the Christian Filipino’s and remembers of the struggle fought by their forefathers. 10 view this as a terrorist conflict that has ended. In this respect, the MILF case could hold valuable lessons as to why conflicts are/fail to be resolved. This thesis aims to answer the following research question:

“How did the MILF transition to a peaceful political process?”

1.2. General outline of this thesis

The thesis is structured as follows:

First, a general review is given of the literature concerning the onset and demise of terrorist/insurgency groups. This review presents the general theoretical framework that will be used in analyzing the specific case of MILF (section 1.3).

Second, the research design is presented, consisting of the methodology used and the lenses and framework applied to the case. Also, further motivation is provided for the selection of the MILF case (section 1.4).

Chapter 2 starts a historical background of the history of the Moro-Philippine conflict (section 2.1). By understanding the history of the conflict, a better analysis of present concerns will follow.

Then, the conflict is analyzed by dividing it into four phases between January 1997 and January 2014 (2.2, 2.3, 2.4, and 2.5). Each of these phases will be analyzed using the lenses and framework as described in chapter 1.4.

Chapter 3 provides a systematic analysis of the MILF case. Here, the different phases will be compared (section 3.3). Then the main observations and intermediate conclusions will be analyzed using the most important theoretical concepts (section 3.4). This will lead to the overall conclusions (section 3.5) and recommendations (section 3.6).

1.3. Literature review

This chapter will provide an oversight of the academic literature in the field of terrorism/insurgency conflicts. These conflicts play an increasingly dominant role in policymakers’ security orientation. However, in contrast to interstate conflict, research into the causes, dynamics

11 and solutions to terrorism/insurgency conflicts is relatively young (Jones & Libicki, 2008).When it is done, it frequently takes little notice of what research is already out there (Cronin, 2009). However, especially with regard to ending terrorism/insurgency, studies are scarce (Cronin, 2009; Jones & Libicki, 2008). The RAND study by Jones and Libicki (2008), has made a significant contribution because it has not focused upon one case, which is common in terrorist research (Cronin, 2009), but has researched 648 cases dating from 1968 until 2006. They have singled out the most successful methods for ending terrorism: political transition (43 %) and policing (40%). About 10 % of the groups ended because the group had achieved its goals and in only 7 % of the cases, there was a military victory for the government (Jones & Libicki, 2008). Concluding from this study, political transition gives the highest odds for ending a terrorist group. The purpose of this study is to further explore the correlative factors that Jones & Libicki have used, and to find out how political transitions come about.

This requires an exploration of the causal mechanisms which are at work in ending terrorism through political process. As of now, this is still a relatively uncharted part of terrorism research (Cronin, 2009). The study will contribute to filling this knowledge gap. However, this first requires a description of the academic field in which to maneuver. The literature review will go into differences over approach and definition (1.3.1), observed correlations (1.3.2) causes and dynamics (1.3.3) and non-violent endings (1.3.4).

1.3.1. Terrorism, a complex area of study

Scholars use a multitude of interpretations and/or orientations in defining terrorism or insurgency (Schmid, 2011). The terms are often used interchangeably. This complicates the systematic study of the literature. In his handbook on terrorism research, Schmid discusses several leading practical terrorist definitions, such as those used by the High-level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change (2004), the UN Ad Hoc Committee on Terrorism (2001) and the United States Department of State (2006). He asked for input from dozens of terrorist scholars on the practical definitions formulated by the institutes mentioned above, and those definitions that were popular in academics works (Schmid, 2011). Schmid carefully analyzed the feedback received and attempted to capture the core dimension of terrorism as follows:

“terrorism refers on the one hand to a doctrine about the presumed effectiveness of a special form or tactic of fear-generating, coercive political violence and, on the other hand, to a

12 conspiratorial practice of calculated, demonstrative, direct violent action without legal or moral restraints, targeting mainly civilians and non-combatants, performed for its propagandistic and psychological effects on various audiences and conflict parties.” (Schmid 2011, 86)

The definition encompasses the thought process to commit an act of terrorism and the act itself. By his use of the words ‘effectiveness’ and ‘calculated’, we can assume that in his mind both are based upon a rational decision. It is a tactic that is presumed rational to pursue certain goals and requires calculated rational planning and execution.

In addition to this, Duyvesteyn and Fumerton (Duyvesteyn & Fumerton, 2010) have brought more clarity on the difference between insurgency and terrorism. They argue that insurgency and terrorism are two distinct strategies of irregular warfare. Consequently: “it is not in tactics, targets, causes or motivations that differences lie, but in political, relational and organizational features that are connected to the distinct strategy (Duyvesteyn & Fumerton, 2010).” Whereas an insurgency strategy seeks to gain control of a territory and by using popular support and local resources, a terrorist strategy seeks to create fear, provoke a reaction or coerce a government into altering a certain policy. For both, this requires a completely different relation with the population (Duyvesteyn & Fumerton, 2010). They conclude that acts of terrorism are not exclusive to the strategy of terrorism. Such acts can be used in an insurgency strategy as well. However, within an insurgency strategy, the group must be extra careful to make sure that it has popular support (active or silent) to commit such acts (Duyvesteyn & Fumerton, 2010). This study will use both insights, the rational tactic explained by Schmid (Schmid, 2011), and the different strategies explained by Duyvesteyn and Fumerton (2010) in which such tactics can be used.

Besides a range of definitions, scholars use different analytical lenses to look at the subject matter. Studies based upon assumptions of rationalism and self-interest have been contested by more interpretative, context-sensitive studies (Tarrow, 2007). This originates from different ontologies. Scholars in social science hold different views on whether the world consists of real things or merely of interpretations of that world. This affects the kind of questioning one does significantly. For example, is the human being able to think objectively? Or is he always influenced by his surroundings and ideas? Furthermore, scholars argue differently about how knowledge can be gained, their epistemological ground (Viotti & Kauppi, 2010). Can we learn from experience to explain phenomena? Or is it merely possible to interpret events and gain some shared understanding of what happened (Viotti & Kauppi, 2010)? This is the main difference between scholars that use a positivist epistemology and those that use an epistemology of interpretative understanding. The consequences of these different ways of looking and conducting research can be directly linked to

13 the kind of questions scholars ask. A positivist research will want to distinguish factors and clearly define independent actor capabilities, such as state capabilities (Viotti & Kauppi, 2010). Positivist questions concerning terrorism will aim to discern the factors and actors which are relevant and add importance to them. However, this study should not be limited to attributing saliency to such factors and actors, but also include the dynamics of their interplay/interaction. Interpretative understandings are more suitable for the latter task. Here it becomes possible to ask: how do actors interact and do their relationships change over time? How should we perceive actors’ intentions, and what motivations drive their action? Interpretative understandings are less strict in how actors are presumed to interact (for example on the basis of rationality) and the importance of conflict factors and actor behavior, which can change over time. Sidney Tarrow argues that true understanding of relationships and motivations can only be derived from a more thick description (Tarrow, 2007). Because it is the aim of this study to find out how political transitions come about and not to test a model, an approach of interpretative understanding is applied. This has led to the following research question:

“How did the MILF transition to a peaceful political process?”

The study builds upon two assumptions that are by no way absolute, but guide the structure of the literature review. The first assumption relates to the correlations that were found in several quantitative studies into the demise of terrorist groups. The study assumes that correlations are valid and therefore does not seek to falsify them, merely to explore them in order to find causal mechanisms. The second assumption relates to the causes of terrorism. These are well studied (Cronin, 2009) and provide a useful frame of reference if we assume that removal of such causes is part of the cause for the demise of a terrorist group. Consequently, in the following paragraphs, we first explore correlations derived from quantitative research (1.2), and then causal factors (1.3).

1.3.2. Observations from quantitative research

In order for a researcher to make a decision on which factors are important and how actors interact, it is imperative to conduct qualitative research. This can build upon correlations between factors that were found in quantitative studies. First, I wish to elaborate on a few caveats that come from those researches that have done large-N studies or meta-research. However useful it may seem to derive causes for ending groups from the removal of the sources that have created them,

Audrey Cronin states that assuming that sources of conflict are logically connected to endings is too simple (Cronin, 2009). Factors for demise may just as likely be external as internal. Terrorism researchers have long focused on the psychology of individual leaders and organizational dynamics to explain endings. This does not match group dynamics anymore. Increasingly, terrorist groups are much more decentralized and rely less on interpersonal contacts (Cronin, 2009). Another caveat is made by Bart Schuurman (Schuurman, Eijkman, & Bakker, 2014). He contends that while conducting terrorism research, we should be aware of the bias upon counterterrorist efforts, both because a lack of reliable data on the group and due to government funding (Schuurman et al., 2014). This has caused researchers to assign the causes for the decline of groups to external factors, such as state policies (Crenshaw, 1999). Let us now examine concrete findings on correlative factors.

This study will focus on building upon correlations which were found in large-N studies such as the RAND study by Jones & Libicki (2008) and several few-N studies such as Audrey Cronin’s (2009) work or a study conducted by, among others, Martha Crenshaw for the United States Institute for Peace (USIP, 1999). Several correlations between factors and the demise of terrorist groups were found by Libicki & Jones: 1) the breadth of terrorist goals, 2) the size of terrorist groups, 3) their ideological orientation, 4) economic conditions and 5) regime type (2008). This has produced some interesting findings.

According to Libicki and Jones (2008), concerning the ideological orientation of groups, they found that religious groups take decidedly longer to end. However, religious groups also never truly achieve their objectives. Also, when religious groups have ended, this is in most cases accomplished by policing. Only one factor consistently holds up as a correlative factor to the duration of a group: size. Larger groups last longer and have a higher chance of achieving their goals (Libicki & Jones, 2008). They also found interesting correlations between the five factors listed above. Economic conditions seem to be related to a group’s ideological orientation and its size. In high income countries, groups are mostly either left-wing or nationalist. In addition, groups are small in high income countries. Terrorist groups more often end in high income countries than in low income countries. And lastly, policing is more effective in high income countries (Libicki & Jones, 2008). The breadth of goals is correlated to ideological orientation and the size of groups. Religious and left- wing groups hold the broadest goals of empire and social revolution. These groups are rarely ended by politics because their goals cannot be bargained over. Also, Libicki and Jones find that bigger groups often have broader and more ambitious goals. Such goals have more appeal which makes recruiting easier (Libicki & Jones, 2008). Regime type might have an impact on the size of groups, but this is highly contested. The argument that grievances are less in democracies, due to established political rights, is debatable. Moreover, because of privacy rights and other checks on power,

15 democracies are less capable than authoritarian regimes in repression and the tracking down of terrorists, which could keep groups small. The last correlation is between ideological orientation and size. Libicki and Jones (2008) find that nationalist groups are often the biggest, with religious groups coming in second place.

All in all, one correlation was solidly produced between one of the five factors and ending the conflict: group size. An increasing size of the group meant that it would be harder to end. However, between factors, many also showed correlations with size. So despite not having found correlations between the other factors and duration, certain co-variations with other factors might produce interesting results.

Whereas Libicki & Jones focus more on group and state attributes, Audrey Cronin has distinguished the seven most important ways in which terrorist groups end:

- capture or killing of the leader, - failure to transition to the next generation, - achievement of the group’s aims, - transition to a legitimate political process, - undermining of popular support, - repression, - transition from terrorism to other forms of violence (Cronin, 2009)

Capture or killing only proved important in a few cases. Cronin concludes that capture is most likely more effective than killing a leader. If a leader is captured, this undermines his credibility and that of the group. Moreover, with a leader still alive, it may be harder for the group to regain new leadership (Cronin, 2009). Concerning a failure to transition to a next generation, right-wing terrorist groups stand out. Ethno-separatist and religious groups are more successful in this regard (Crenshaw, 1999). Groups rarely succeed in achieving their aims, but when they do, it is often through a transition to the political process. Cronin emphasizes that this is much more complex than merely pursuing a negotiated agreement (Cronin, 2009). There are many variables that determine the outcome of negotiations. Cronin lists a few: degree of hierarchy in the group, degree of centralized leadership, degree and nature of public support for the cause and if the group aims are negotiable (Cronin, 2009). Firstly, she concludes that a more hierarchical group structure and stronger leadership is advantageous for ensuring compliance with peace terms on local levels. Also, separatist groups often have aims that are more feasible and negotiable than other type of groups (Cronin, 2009). Potentially, additional pay-off in this respect may come if a terrorist organization struggles to perpetuate its own absolutist perspective in justifying the use of terrorist methods (Guelke, 1998).

Secondly, centralized leadership is deemed important because the greatest risk of pursuing negotiations is that it often leads to the creation of splinter groups, frequently more violent and extreme than the original group (Cronin, 2009). Leadership that is centralized is more stable is this respect than a structure with decentralized independently operating cells. Thirdly, the loss of popular support can greatly influence the position of a group (Cronin, 2009). It can stop the flow of new recruits, diminish the amount of safe houses, cause a financial blow and potentially help the police get more information out of locals (Cronin, 2009). Support is lost through fear for government retaliation, an improvement in life conditions for the local populace, decreasing salience of the group’s ideology and resentment about the group’s level of violence (Cronin, 2009). Popular support is often linked to levels of repression. As levels of state violence and the profiling of certain ethnic or social-economic groups increase, resentment will grow. This may serve to legitimize terrorist attacks and as an effective tool for recruitment (Cronin, 2009). On the other hand, repression may deter the local population from supporting the terrorist group (Cronin, 2009). The last way to end a group, a transition to another modus operandi and away from terrorism, occurs when the focus of the group shifts to making profit, or when the group gains strength and transitions into insurgency (Cronin, 2009). However, as we have established in 1.1, this does not mean that such groups seize to use terrorist tactics.

In conclusion, a remark on the USIP study is warranted. They conclude that timing is also a crucial element. This fits within the interpretative approach, which sees conflict and its factors of importance as interrelated and changing over time. For example, the study states that peace overtures must be timed correctly. Preferably, they should come at a time that the government is strong and the group is undergoing of period of introspection (Crenshaw, 1999).

1.3.3. Asymmetrical conflicts: causes and dynamics

In order to study the dynamics of terrorism, one must be aware of the context in which it is being used, the wider conflict. Therefore, it is important to give an insight into the academic literature concerning the causes of/and dynamics within an asymmetrical conflict. Asymmetrical conflicts are between parties that are inevitably unequally situated in capabilities and resources because of their relation, for example between a state and separatist group or an employee and employer (Ramsbotham, Woodhouse & Miall, 2011). Addressing the causes of a conflict may remove incentives to use terrorism. Understanding the dynamics within the conflict can serve to distinguish its main driving forces. Disrupting or transforming such drivers may produce the window of

17 opportunity toward ending the conflict. In the following sections theory on causes and dynamics will be elaborated on in asymmetrical conflicts. The first part will have a general focus on civil conflict. Subsequently, this is extended to comprise the use of terrorist tactics.

1.3.3.1. Conflict resolution theory

Conflict resolution theory has produced many insights into the causes and dynamics of conflict. Most work builds upon the studies conducted by Johan Galtung (Galtung, 1969). Galtung came up with three triangles that were interconnected and described the dimensions of conflict and the forms of violence. Galtung viewed conflict as inherent to a society where human beings with different preferences live together. He did not see conflict as necessarily violent. The first dimension of conflict is contradiction, which refers to the underlying conflict situation, the perceived incompatibility of goals.

The second dimension is attitude. This is about the perceptions that actors have of themselves and their adversaries, often instilled by fear, anger or jealousy. Then there is actual behavior. Competing interests and negative attitudes can lead to different kind of behavior, often becoming more violent as the first two dimensions cut deeper. Galtung also translates these dimensions into forms of violence. He classifies contradiction as a sort of structural violence, attitudes as cultural violence and behavior as direct violence. To exemplify this division, structural violence can be poverty or disenfranchisement, direct violence can be killing or the act of rape, and cultural violence is everything that justifies this (Galtung, 1969). These dimensions of conflict and forms of violence can be connected to the drivers of peace. Addressing contraction requires peacebuilding, transforming attitudes is a matter of peacemaking and changing (violent) behavior is primarily done by peacekeeping (Ramsbotham, Woodhouse & Miall, 2011). After Galtung had laid down the groundwork of conflict resolution by distinguishing the dimensions of conflict and related forms of violence, several scholars tried to concretize these dimensions and the dynamics within/ and between them. Edward Azar’s (1990) work on protracted social conflicts (PSC) is especially relevant to asymmetrical conflict and the case study in chapter three.

In the 1970s, Azar contested some of the dominant thinking within the academic community about conflicts. Until then, research focused mostly upon conflicts between states, and also clearly separated the international from the domestic domain. Azar concluded that such a distinction was purely artificial. According to Azar, there is one social environment in which conflicts arise and are resolved. Sources of such conflicts predominantly lie within and across states, not between them. His

18 research emphasized the role of intercommunal relations. People may contest for material wealth, security, status and political rights. Such struggles are often played out at a communal level. Azar identifies four preconditions that can work to escalate conflicts: communal discontent, the deprivation of basic needs5, degree of state failure and the degree of international linkages. He adds that whether these preconditions will transform conflict into a violent struggle depends upon the process dynamics present, of which he lists three: communal actions/strategies, state action/strategies and built-in mechanisms. The former refers to identity group formation, organization and mobilization of such a group, the choice of goals, its leadership and tactics. The state will respond by choosing a policy somewhere between political accommodation and coercive repression. Political accommodation will be more difficult in weak states. The built-in mechanisms are the dynamics of conflict that always influence the choices conflict parties make. One can think of pre-existing beliefs and biases, the security dilemma or incentives based on a war economy (Azar, 1990). The four preconditions form an important part of the context in which the process dynamics take place.

After Azar, several post-Cold war theories have contributed to understanding the context and process dynamics even better. They can easily be integrated within protracted social conflict theory, and serve as a nice addition. These will be discussed in the next two sections.

1.3.3.2. Civil wars

Galtung’s idea of contradiction, based on the belief that the goals of each group are incompatible with that of the other as long as their current relationship is sustained, is a good starting position. Such contradiction can be grounded on greed when there is a scarcity of material wealth that both wish to possess, or on grievance, when cultural values and political rights of one group are denied/marginalized by the other. Many scholars in the pre-Cold War era mainly focused upon the grievances of civil war parties. This was understandable due to the strong ideological clash between communists and capitalists, which characterized much of these conflicts. Or the decolonization wave that empowered many disenfranchised populations to settle old scores. Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler (Collier & Hoeffler, 2004) have conducted a large-N study which found no convincing correlates between grievances and the outbreak of civil war, but did so for economic variables and civil war. Based on previous research (Collier, 1999), they assume that conflict often pays off for rebel groups, independent of the outcome. They also state that grievances are frequently

5 Burton states that there are four basic needs: security, political access, development and identity. 19 exaggerated, something which cannot be dispelled by conflict itself, but worsens this. Since grievances can easily be fabricated and misperceived, explanations of rebellions by referral to grievances should be extra cautious (Collier & Hoeffler, 2004). By testing a data set of civil wars between 1960-1999 against indicators of grievance and indicators of opportunity, only the latter performed well.

The first factor that influences opportunity is the availability of finance. Especially in countries with large primary commodity exports, finance is easy and potentially lucrative. Also, the availability of finance through powerful diaspora networks is found to increase conflict risk. The second factor in opportunity is the cost of rebellion. If opportunity costs for starting a rebellion are higher, for example in countries with higher GDP growth rates, higher rates of male secondary education enrollment and higher per capita income, conflict risk is substantially reduced. A third factor is that of military advantage. Significant here is the degree of population dispersion. Concerning grievances, inequality, political rights and religious fractionalization all had insignificant outcomes. Only ethnic dominance is found to increase conflict risk (Collier & Hoeffler, 2004). Quantitative research carried out by James Fearon and David Laitin (Fearon & Laitin, 2003) endorsed these findings. These studies hint at the explanatory power of economic variables, and the dynamics of opportunistic greed to exploit them.

Jeremy Weinstein (Weinstein, 2006) elaborates more on the dynamics within what he calls – opportunistic and activist rebellions – those primarily based on greed and those that were caused by grievance. He argues that opportunistic rebellions organize on the basis of immediate rewards for their supporters, through the distribution of resource rents or external patronage. The leadership of the group is likely to have less control over its armed units when they do not share an ideological belief and identity (Weinstein, 2006). Especially in dispersed areas, opportunistic groups will use more violence to retain social control than activist rebellions (Weinstein, 2006). Insurgent groups can also thrive on significant amounts of external aid/rewards for their resistance against the government. Weinstein points out that such aid can fundamentally change the reality on the ground, risking members of behaving solely self-interested because money is flowing in from abroad (Weinstein, 2006).

In his study on civil wars, Stathis Kalyvas (Kalyvas, 2009) has focused upon the use of violence within such wars. He expands upon Weinstein’s analysis that opportunistic rebellions are more violent. Kalyvas stresses that beside indiscriminate violence, often connected to a breakdown of authority as envisaged by Thomas Hobbes, groups use selective violence in order to produce local information (for example on government informants) needed to strengthen a group’s social control

(Kalyvas, 2009). However, we can also think of this in a more delicate and nuanced game of rivalry. According to Claire Metelits (Metelits, 2009), insurgent groups are not excessively violent against local populations because of the presence of natural resources, but because they are in a state of active rivalry with one or more other groups. Resources only become a source for aggression when there is an impending threat of resource depletion, which is often the case when groups are in fierce competition/active rivalry (Metelits, 2009). Metelits even states that in the absence of such active rivalry, groups are even able to behave like a state, providing security, public goods and guarding indigenous institutions (Metelits, 2009). This kind of behavior could legitimize a group as a valid negotiating partner (1.5) (Zartman, 1995). Now that we have explored the most important explanations of conflict outbreak, grievances (1.3.1) and greed (1.3.2), and the dynamics associated with them, some final notes on other post-Cold War additions are heeded.

There is one influential theory that contributed to the preconditions described by Azar and the opportunity thesis put forward by Collier & Hoeffler. This is the work of Barry Buzan on re- conceptualizing security to catch all its complexities ((Buzan, 1991). Buzan stressed that during the Cold War the concept of security was interpreted too narrowly, strictly limited to the physical survival of the state or the nation. This centered around military and political dimensions of security. Buzan extended this by incorporating economic security, societal security, environmental security and regional security into the security concept. Economic security is about balancing risks, to ensure welfare stability. It is also the one dimension that reinforces all other dimensions of security. Societal security is about the harmony of cultures and identities that is present (lacking) in society. Concerning environment security, Buzan admits that this is hard to measure, but one can think of the exhaustion of farmlands or the extinction of other livelihoods, such as flora and fauna. Lastly, and in addition to Azar and Collier & Hoeffler the most important dimension, Buzan elaborates on regional security. This goes beyond mere conceptions of the balance of power, also comprising relationships of enmity/amity, based upon shared/opposing forms of identity and ethnicity or territorial claims and historical events (Buzan, 1991). Such relationships together form a security complex, which Buzan defines as:

“a group of states whose primary security concerns link together sufficiently closely that their national securities cannot realistically be considered apart from one another.” (Buzan 1991, p190) He saw security as a very omnipresent concept, which should be studied from the different levels (individual, nation state and the international system) and broken down into the dimensions set forth above (Buzan, 1991).

Connected to this omnipresence was the introduction of a concept what Ole Waever called ‘securitization’ (Buzan, Waever, & de Wilde, 1998). Securitization is the construction of an issue as a threat that poses a security problem to the nation. This is often done by elites and accomplished once the audience accepts the frame (Buzan et al., 1998).

1.3.3.3. Specific dimensions of terrorism

Conflicts do not just emerge and hold the same shape, meaning and intensity over time. They are constantly evolving and changing. Such dynamics are important to understand the developments within conflicts and the road they take to violence, peace or a stand-off. This also includes a moment where terrorism becomes relevant or irrelevant again. For example when it is securitized by politicians. Buzan (Buzan et al., 1998) distinguishes three ways in which politicians can go about this: insulation, repression and equalizing. Insulation is based on decreasing vulnerabilities to terrorism. Repression is rather more active, aiming at eliminating the threat of terrorism. Equalizing refers to repairing inequalities in order to soften grievances (Buzan et al., 1998). Especially the difference between insulation and repression is an analytical distinction that is a useful addition to the more forceful policy responses that were put forward by Libicki & Jones (policing, military force) and Cronin (capture leaders, repression). Because our main topic of research, a policy based on political rapprochement, is rarely successful on its own (Libicki & Jones, 2008), I wish to elaborate further on forceful policy responses. Whereas repression relies on a pro-active and anticipatory justice system, insulation can entail different legal choices. Sara Fiorentini and Willem-Jan van der Wolf (Fiorentini & Van der Wolf, 2015) explore some of these choices.

Because of diverging definitions of terrorism, governments claim that it is not possible to refer the crime of terrorism to an international court with universal jurisdiction (Fiorentini & Van der Wolf, 2015). As to the approach governments may take to terrorism, Van der Wilt distinguishes between the objective and subjective approach (in: Fiorentini & Van der Wolf, 2015). The former concentrates solely on the act that is performed. The latter also includes motive/intention. A subjective approach is needed to engage in anticipatory justice, such as punishing people for acts that are yet to be committed (for example a terrorist attack). However, according to Van der Wilt, because of the reactive nature of criminal law, it is not a suitable instrument for prevention (in: Fiorentini & Van der Wolf, 2015). A subjective approach would entail a more farfetched curtailment of human rights, which has a risk of being counterproductive because it can contribute to terrorist recruitment grounds. This is an implication of a much tougher policy that influences the dynamics in

22 various ways. Popular support may dwindle, in fear of arrest, or increase due to dissatisfaction with the government. Terrorist groups may be prepared to go until further lengths to achieve their goals because they know that a severe punishment awaits them once they are caught or the group is dissolved Abrahms (Abrahms, 2006).

Henar Criado (Criado, 2015) connects such hard policies directly to the terrorist behavior in his case study on the ETA in Spain. Because we assume that terrorists wish to maximize the saliency of their attacks, we should gain a better understanding of shifts in terrorist behavior by observing certain factors that explain such saliency. Criado points to three factors that explain terrorist saliency: number of victims, type of victim and the dynamics of political competition. The latter is directly connected to whether there is an exclusion of terrorism from party competition and if not, elections draw near (Criado, 2015). Clearly, governments and political parties could decrease the saliency of terrorism by unifying politically around the issue. A de-politicization of the issue is simply not realistic due to the electorate’s demand for action (Fiorentini & Van der Wolf, 2015). This is particularly the case after a big attack or event.

Gordon Clubb (Clubb, 2014) refers to these big events as triggers. These events can produce higher levels of violence, more geographical spread, re-entry of disengaged militants and offer more important opportunities for spoilers (Clubb, 2014). A reservation to this is made by Adam Roberts (2015), who has done meta-research into the field of terrorism. According to Roberts, history teaches us that is mostly not a few trigger acts of great violence that transform the conflict (Roberts, 2015).

1.3.4. Ending conflict non-violently

In order to find a political solution for an asymmetrical conflict, the parties can choose to negotiate. The positions from which the parties can negotiate are determined by the conflict, which is constantly evolving. To capture this, one should assess its features, actors’ capabilities and history. Such features and capabilities were discussed in the previous paragraph. This paragraph explores literature on the way they can interact when they choose to negotiate instead of fight. The literature points us in the direction of four factors of importance: tactics, leadership, third parties, trust and the role of spoilers. In order to review these factors, a clear understanding of negotiation practice is needed. In the literature, elements of time and momentum are attached to certain practice. Also, I will shortly give a general indication of important elements in successful peace agreements so we can start reviewing tactics and results.

1.3.4.1 Negotiation practices within the longer peace process

Most authors that write on conflict resolution agree that just as with other phases of conflict, such as the emergence of a clear contradiction between parties and possibly armed conflict (Cronin, 2009), negotiating a peace, takes time. Setbacks can cause severe delay or even deterioration, whereas breakthroughs can accelerate the road to peace. Conflicts evolve, they can spin around, take another shape or get a different meaning over time. Negotiations, if they come about, can take different forms depending on the conflict situation. For example, if a conflict is from its onset mainly about political injustices but grows to become a struggle for territory and resources, negotiations may have to take another form.

The first difference that academics have stressed is that between official and unofficial diplomatic contacts. For asymmetrical conflicts, this is especially important. Governments are not easily inclined to recognize the legitimacy of a rebel group, since this implies an erosion of their own authority. However, for negotiations to work, an equal power balance is favorable. This requires mutual recognition of the other as a legitimate actor (Zartman, 1995). Official contacts usually signify such recognition, which would explain why some governments attempt to avoid this. Legitimacy may preclude a government from criminalizing rebel group members, which could undermine its strategy. In this stage of the conflict, contacts are rather made unofficial or through back-channels.

So what negotiation options do the parties have and at what stage of the conflict is an option likely to be on the table? Besides being official or unofficial, the main differences between options can be categorized in three tracks of diplomacy. Frequently, this involves a third party. Within track one, top-level government representatives are involved, usually under the guidance of an international governmental organization or another state. This involves more muscle and pressure to come an agreement. Track one diplomacy often comes in the form of official negotiations, summitry, or an arbitration procedure. Third parties may act as an arbiter or forceful mediator (Ramsbotham, Woodhouse & Miall, 2011).

For track two diplomacy, no top-officials are needed and the pressure to come to an agreement is less. Such contacts can serve to create trust, exchange views, brainstorm to reconcile interests and needs or work out low-level issues for implementation. This can take the form of mediation, work-group meetings or informal conciliatory meetings. According to Ramsbotham et al (2011), a third party mediator has to provide for three basic elements in second track , diplomacy: improve communications, exchange relevant information and befriend both parties. Second track

24 diplomacy has gained more adherents and appreciation over the last decades. In these meetings, it is easier to implement a principled negotiation approach, as advocated by Herb Kelman (Kelman, 1996). Central to this approach is to bridge the difference between positions and interests. This is easier done in low-level meetings, where statements and promises can be made in a more exploratory and non-binding way. Also, it is easier to explore true basic needs. According to Burton, interests can be differentiated from needs in that they are negotiable, whereas needs are not. Burton lists four basic needs: security, political access, development and identity. However, basic needs can often be fulfilled by different positions, whereas interests are concrete and have a limited range of negotiation positions that achieve them. According to Burton, focusing on needs instead of interests presents a chance to creatively find solutions (Burton, 1990).

Finally, third track diplomacy is about including grassroots movements. This might concern meetings between community leaders, academics or any other initiative that is organized by citizens that seeks to bridge differences, build social cohesion and find common ground. A third party might be an authoritative figure from a neighboring village who can fulfill the same roles as third parties in first and second track diplomacy (Ramsbotham, Woodhouse & Miall, 2011). The question that remains is: do we need each option and if yes, when?

Ramsbotham, Woodhouse & Miall (2011) conclude that track one and track two diplomacy are often most effective when they are undertaken in conjunction. Track three is needed throughout the process, but especially when party positions are completely opposed. Grassroots movements may demand internal change of their own party position. Also, they may explore and accomplish things on a local scale that may serve as an example for national politicians/leaders. The question remains to what ends should the different diplomacy methods be used?

1.3.4.2. Successful elements of peace agreements

In order to know what method one should use, an idea of what constitutes a good settlement is needed. Ramsbotham, Woodhouse & Miall (2011) list several elements of successful settlements:

- The inclusion of all affected parties - Agreements need to be well crafted and precise - A well-struck balance must exist between clear commitments and more flexible terms - The parties need incentives to sustain the process, for example through power-sharing - Provide for a dispute settlement mechanism, and a way for renegotiation in matters of disagreement about the implementation - Deal with the core issues, bring about transformation - Preferable: respect for human rights, justice and group rights

However, to reach such an outcome, many variables should be taken into account. Cronin lists a few: degree of hierarchy in the group, degree of centralized leadership, degree and nature of public support for the cause and if the group aims are negotiable (Cronin, 2009). She concludes that a more hierarchical group structure and stronger leadership is advantageous for ensuring compliance with peace terms on local levels. Also, separatist groups often have aims that are more feasible and negotiable than other type of groups (Cronin, 2009). The greatest risk of pursuing negotiations is that it often leads to the creation of splinter groups, frequently more violent and extreme than the original group (Cronin, 2009).

Parties will have to make tactical choices on how to deal with these variables and which of the above listed elements they wish to make a priority. However, during conflict, it will not always be possible to address all elements, including a rational way of dealing with them. For example, the first element, the inclusion of all parties, will perhaps first require a confrontational tactic from a smaller party, presenting itself as an important player in the conflict, whereas later its tactics might shift to more conciliatory to retain a seat at the table. Bigger parties will have to engage in third and second track diplomacy to make sure smaller factions are in agreement with the process. Another example is on the second element, whether to get a comprehensive deal, precise and well-crafted, or to seize momentum and make a deal on certain issues, while forestalling agreement on other topics. It may be tempting for an incumbent leader to get a quick deal, in order to boost his standing and political clout. However, certain studies argue that small steps are easier to sustain, and therefore preferable to an instant all-encompassing solution (Osgood, 1962). Notwithstanding that strong incentives to

26 continue working on all other issues must be in place, with clear procedures, timetables and public commitments to see them through (Sisk, 1997). On the latter, strong leadership is needed (Weinstein, 2006). Small-steps are best made in the second and third track, which attract less attention and do not have to produce policy results (Ramsbotham, Woodhouse & Miall, 2011). Clearly, choices must be made which are often ambiguous. They may involve choices for a location, a third party mediator, the agenda and all other political/military decisions that shape the context of the negotiations.

In conclusion, different negotiation tactics can exist in a group or government strategy. The difference between strategy and tactic is not always clear-cut. The strategy is the grand scheme of how a party wants to accomplish his end goals. It can also refer to part of the scheme, for example the military or diplomatic parts. Tactics refer to certain methods of- or maneuvers in within such broader set-ups. These may change over time and is dependent upon the state of the conflict. Tactics may consist of different methods of diplomacy, or tracks of diplomacy. Certain factors of importance, such as the strength of leadership, degree of hierarchy, type of group, strength of spoilers and mutual trust are best engaged with a certain tactic and using one or several of the diplomacy tracks. Strategy and tactics are essential for understanding the conflict and actor’s behavior. For example, a group strategy may be to mobilize broad resistance with popular support and to seize control of certain territories in order to gain government concessions on autonomy and self-rule. If it does not have the military might to seize control, it might move from insurgency to terrorist tactics in order to gain a better bargaining position. However, this could undermine its popular support and therefore its grand strategy. This game is continuously played out by the conflict parties. The following will elaborate on how players can approach this game and what options they have.

1.3.4.3. Strategy and tactical choices

Clausewitz famously states that “war is a continuation of political activity by other means” (Von Clausewitz, 1873). The same can be argued the other way: “negotiations are just another means of fighting a war” (Jubair, 1999). These are the first two options that parties have: fight or negotiate. For the area of fighting, which is connected to negotiations because it always looms in the background or happens simultaneously, we have explored several tactics in section 1.3. Now, this will be extended with academic views on tactics which are concerned with negotiation processes. This does not mean that both are deeply interrelated, as it is important for parties to keep the war option on the table to exert pressure. Both war and negotiation tactics can be part of a grand strategy.

First, there is a strand of scholars which argues that both fighting and negotiating are based upon rational decisions. According to these scholars, a conflict party’s tactical choices should therefore also be based upon rational calculations. Such calculations are made by weighing the utility of negotiations against the utility of fighting, for example to gain a better bargaining position. These scholars adhere to bargaining theory, which comes from international relations. However, the strategic logic holds the same for asymmetrical conflict as for interstate conflict. Terrorist groups also incur costs upon themselves by escalating to more violence (sunk cost human/financial, audience costs) and gain credibility of threats by using violence (Abrahms, 2011). Because of the costs incurred, the challenger shows resolve. Scholars subsequently presume that an escalation of violence by the challenger will have a positive effect on coercing compliance by its adversary (Abrahms, 2011). In conclusion, according to these scholars, a tactic based on gaining negotiation concessions by forceful coercion is logical and sound.

Despite the logic reasoning behind bargaining theory, Abrahms (2011) shows that empirical studies have not endorsed the theoretically expected outcomes. Several large-N studies indicate that governments are less likely to concede to political demands when they are confronted with an escalation of terrorist violence (Crenshaw & Peller, 1998),(Abrahms, 2006). If groups actually achieved success of their strategic goals, it was in hybrid cases where terrorism was only used as a secondary tactic (Abrahms, 2006). Also, violence was directed at military targets and not at civilian targets (Abrahms, 2006). All authors contend that groups rather achieved success despite the use of terrorist tactics than because of it (Jones & Libicki, 2008; Cronin, 2009; Abrahms, 2006). So why is this?

Abrahms points to a sense of moral outrage, the election of conservative hardline politicians, the prevention of incentivizing potential terrorists or a perceived correspondence between extreme terrorist means and extreme ends (Abrahms, 2011; Abrahms, 2006). However, he contends that more research to assess the reasons behind the inability of bargaining theory to explain negotiations between governments and terrorist groups is needed. Clearly tactics should extend mere rational bargaining, based on coercive and exchange power (Ramsbotham, Woodhouse & Miall, 2011). Further proof of this can be found by applying the ‘dollar auction’ game to conflict bargaining. In this game both parties will exceed the value of the ‘thing for auction’, here one dollar, in order to incur greater costs upon their adversary than upon themselves. The focus is upon relative gains, which might entail: my losses are less than that of my adversary. The logic is that due to such a focus, the efforts/costs or resolve to gain something, for example an oil field, may not be in proportion to the potential gain (Shubik, 1971).

A strategy such as the ‘departing train’ rely on ideas of seizing a unique opportunity while the momentum is there. This might offer chances for integrative solutions, but could also be used as a tactic by a dominant party to press through its own agenda. The idea behind it is that there is a unique opportunity to obtain peace, a ‘departing train’, but if a party does not align with the peace process, or get on the train, it will fall short of its benefits (Ramsbotham, Woodhouse & Miall, 2011). The role of spoilers is also important in this.

Stedman (Stedman, 1997) distinguishes between internal and external spoilers (Stedman, 1997). Spoilers exist only in the context of a peace process, which they want to undermine. Stedman divides spoilers in three types: limited, greedy and total. The limited spoiler seeks tangible and smaller objectives. The greedy spoiler makes a cost/benefit analysis whether there is a possibility to profit from spoiling behavior. The total spoiler has all-or –nothing terms and refuses any compromise (Stedman, 1997). With regards to the ‘departing train’ tactic, it is especially effective for limiting the influence of spoilers by limiting their time to break up the peace process. A potential danger is that inside greedy spoilers, those actors that are indispensable for a successful outcome may attain high profits by exploiting their bargaining position (Stedman, 1997). A departing train tactic could be especially effective when it consist of an amnesty proclamation. When the government can convince the warring factions that this is a one-time offer, it works as a strong incentive (Ramsbotham et al., 2011).

Then there is a strategy of inclusion. This is based on seeking integrative solutions that presumes all parties agree that a continuation of hostilities only produces mutual suffering. Integrative solutions are those that brainstorm for a common position that works to transform the conflict by challenging dominant assumptions (Boulding, 1962). For example, to transform the idea that once your adversary feels stronger and more secure, this will not worsen but improve your own security. Changing this assumption will open up opportunities for creative joint solutions, like wealth- sharing (Ramsbotham, Woodhouse & Miall, 2011). According to Zartman, such momentum can come about with a ‘hurting stalemate’. The idea is that if there’s enough cost to a conflict, parties will overcome their differences (Zartman, 1995). This is in direct opposition to the idea of the dollar auction, where parties will continue their struggle despite the large costs. A very real disadvantage of the ‘hurting stalemate’ is that contrary to expectations, it does not give a guarantee for peace, and might take years to overcome (Ramsbotham, Woodhouse & Miall, 2011). Even when it might seem logical on the basis of absolute gains to stop fighting, a deep mistrust may prevent this from ever materializing. So how do we overcome this and create trust?

Strong leadership may create trust, for example by showing a clear dedication to attain peace. Leaders may create a strong symbolic frame of unity and opportunity. According to Kaufman, the strength of such a frame is dependent upon how much do constituents actually care about it, the credibility of a leader, the issues or values that are bridged or connected by the frame and the fidelity of the narrative compared to earlier beliefs/actions. Just as frames might be abused to create fear and mobilize people for violence, they can be used to construct peace (Kaufman, 2011). Leaders can also, as an ultimate sign of dedication, tie their own fate to the peace process. A disadvantage of this is that opponents of the incumbent leader may use the peace process as a way to get rid of an incumbent. Therefore, a strong leadership structure which strengthens the legitimacy and powers of the leader is important to ensure his commitments are carried out (Weinstein, 2006). Another way to create trust is to chop up the peace process in many steps, which can be checked and serve to build confidence. Important here is to have agreement on procedures and timetables (Ramsbotham, Woodhouse & Miall, 2011). Finally, a third party mediator or arbiter may bridge mistrust by creating trustful relations with both parties. Lederach (Lederach, 1995) argues that parties rather choose a partial-insider than an impartial-outsider. It is easier to trust an insider than an outsider. And trust is deemed more important than neutrality (Lederach, 1995). But trust is easily lost and hard to build.

1.3.4.4 Using negotiations for other ends than peace

It may be that negotiations merely serve to stall for time and reinforce military positions. A state strategy may be based on military domination and denial, for example by enforcing a naval blockade. A tactical choice at a certain time within such a strategy may be to avoid fighting and choose to negotiate. This will allow the government to attain relative gains in the meantime. Stalling for time may also be used to pacify third parties and make them lose interest. Similarly, a government may choose to negotiate in order to divide its opponent between those that support negotiations and more militant wings (Duyvesteyn & Schuurman, 2011). Moreover, a government may have to deal with several groups, choosing to negotiate with one so it can fight the other. For the government, this might prove an effective tactic in order to prevent your opponents from joining forces. However, this comes with a risk. Once a negotiation has failed because one party broke the peace or disregarded an agreement that was made, it is much harder to begin afresh.

1.4. Research Design

1.4.1. Main theoretical considerations and strategies relevant to this case.

In this study the following theories from the literature review will take an important position:

- The protracted social conflict theory (Azar, 1991) - Peace spoiler theory (Stedman, 1999) - Negotiation strategies (Ramsbotham, Woodhouse & Miall, 2011) - Greed and grievance theory (Collier & Hoeffler, 2003)

The protracted social conflict theory is of particular relevance as it allows capturing the social economic dimension of the conflict. As will be shown later in the case (chapter 2.1) this dimension can be regarded as an essential causal element of the grievances underlying the conflict.

The Peace spoiler theory is used as it will become clear from the case description that the peace process is a bumpy road with many different obstacles (= differing interests of participants).

Negotiation strategies are of relevance as different presidents have taken different strategies in order to deal with the conflict.

The relevance of the Greed and grievance theory is clear, as –historically- the loss of land, the inferior social status of the Moros has caused many grievances. Besides this, the ability to generate economic resources and external support are crucial for sustaining the conflict. Both aspects are relevant to this particular case.

1.4.2. Framework of analysis

In order to analyze the different phases of the conflict in a structured way, they are viewed through different lenses: the context, the state and the group. To gain a full picture of the context in which the parties interact, we can use three different levels of analysis: international, national and local. On the international level, this will provide insight into the world economy and regional stability. The national level can take into account factors such as the state of the national economy, regional differences and the dynamics of the political system. Lastly, the local level is suited to explain the situation in Mindanao and the conflict areas. For the state and the group lens, it is important to discern their specific positions, interests and needs at a certain moment in time. We can

31 also call this their perspective. These are constructed through internal and external (with the context) dynamics. This gives us the following framework:

Context : local, national and international events/developments. State : perspective based upon internal and external dynamics. Group : perspective based upon internal and external dynamics.

Four phases are selected. 1). January 1997 – February 2001, 2). March 2001 – July 2005, 3). August 2005 – May 2010, 4) June 2010 – March 2014.

Phase one will consist of the start of the peace negotiations under President Ramos and end with the impeachment trial and subsequent stepping down of President Estrada. The second phase starts with the presidency of Arroyo and is mostly dominated by the war on terrorism. It ends when the talks about ancestral domain start. Phase three is focused upon the theme of ancestral domain and the disruption of the peace process through the Supreme Court suspension order. It ends with the elections for a new president. Phase four starts with the presidency of Benigno Aquino and focuses upon a revived peace process, culminating in a Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro.

By using this framework consistently for all phases of the conflict, the study captures the time and context-specific factors that shape actors’ positions and relations.

1.4.3 Method

This study will focus on a single case. The existing gap of knowledge on how terrorist groups end is best improved by deeper exploration of the detailed processes that led to an end of the conflict with a terrorist groups. So what are the exact merits of the single case study method and how will this method be applied in the study?

The main contribution of a case study is its in-depth analysis. However, it is also important that case studies rely on a reference framework of a larger population of cases, to assess the particular situation of the case within a population of cases (Gerring, 2006). Most case-study designs rely on the representativeness of the case in relation to the larger population of cases concerning its

32 topic of investigation. A clear connection with that larger population of cases has been made in section 1.2, where several large-N studies are discussed.

Case studies can follow one or a combination of strategies. John Gerring concludes that there is no reason not to pursue more strategies if the case is suitable for several functions (Gerring, 2006). Certain strategies also apply to the case presented in section three. In some respects, the MILF presents a typical case that has similar features found in many other asymmetrical conflicts: mixed ideological orientation, legitimate grievances based on protracted social conflict, opportunities for greed-incentivized behavior, weak state institutions and two sets of deep-rooted negative perceptions of the ‘other’. This allows the ability to probe for causal relations along the correlative factors that were produced by the large-N studies. However, the case also presents the opportunity to pursue another strategy. Because the MILF is one of the few cases where a religiously-motivated insurgent group has been ended by political transition, it might also function as a deviant case-study. This holds that the outcome (Y= end by political transition) is accomplished with the existence of an unusual independent variable (X1= religious ideology). Furthermore, the case can serve a hypothesis- generating goal. A deviant case refines or tests a deductively presumed correlation (religious- motivated groups do not likely end by a political process), whereas a hypothesis generating-case inductively probes for special variables of interest, for example leadership (Lijphart, 1971). This might seem contradictory, but is not so strange. Research is about exploring new things, whether by deduction or induction. As Gerring already posed, pursue several strategies if the case allows for it (Gerring, 2006).

Another feature of the MILF case is that because of its long life-span, it presents a good opportunity for using comparative-historical analysis. Comparative-historical analysis is a research field that uses systematic comparison and analysis of processes over time to explain important outcomes, such as the end of conflict (Mahoney & Rueschemeyer, 2003). For this study, this is limited to within-case comparison. Frequently, such analysis is used in small-N studies that investigate the relation of a few important variables with the dependent variable. A method that is well suited for this type of research is process analysis. This method allows researchers to examine mechanism through which independent variables influence the dependent variable (George & Bennet, 2005). These linkages enrich our understanding of how the change in one variable or conjunction of variables causes the change in a dependent variable. Especially for an analysis of sequences of events within cases, this is a valuable tool of analysis (Mahoney, 2004). Such within- case comparison is the basis for this study. The peace process between the MILF and the GRP can be viewed in a continuum, but also in parts or sequences. To look at each phase on its own, but similarly

33 to place it within a continuum of historical events. Such a technique goes beyond the descriptive and causal inferences that can be drawn from statistical analysis.

1.4.4. Case selection

For studies with many cases, random selection may produce a good representativeness among the class of cases. This also prevents case selection bias (Gerring, 2006). However, in case study research with a small sample, this is problematic. Randomization will produce large variance in a sample within a large class of cases. Consequently, such selection will not produce a fair mean sample of the population of cases (Gerring, 2006). Case selection is necessary. In section 2.3 some reasons for selecting the MILF case were explained by reference to methods of analysis, here typical, deviant and process analysis. However, there are other matters that play a role. For example, the relevance the case has to policymakers and society at large. As the peace process is still underway, and there many active terrorist groups around the world, more knowledge could also prove valuable for both policymakers and ordinary civilians. The MILF case has a long history of troublesome and violent interactions on different levels: national/, regional and local. This makes it all the more interesting that despite a long history of violence and distrust, an accord for peace was struck in 2013. Such a positive case with an Islamic insurgency group may inspire and provide valuable lessons for policymakers to seek non-violent outcomes with similar groups.

CHAPTER 2. THE CASE OF THE MORO ISLAMIC LIBERATION FRONT

2.1. Historical background of the Moro-Philippine conflict.

The conflict in Mindanao knows many players, stages/phases, arena’s and dimensions. This conflict was never just between the Moro rebels and the Filipino government. Both parties gained supporters to their cause, domestic and foreign. For example the Moros have tried to get support from the indigenous population, also called the Lumads, for their cause (ICG, 2011b). Internal struggles were also common. The Moro population for example, consisted of 13 tribes, all with their own culture and traditions (Gomez, 2000). A map of Mindanao and the Moros tribes has been added in the annex (p. 130).

Also, the conflict did not become violent overnight, but instead grew through history from non-violent contestation to violent clashes. The conflict was played out in several ways, at several locations. The main arena was the contested mainland Mindanao, but terrorist attacks were also carried out in metropolitan Manila to take the violence to the “Filipino invader”. The conflict was also fiercely played out at the negotiation tables in Tripoli, Libya, or in metropolitan Manila to gain support among politicians6. Similarly, the dimensions of the conflict were diverse, ranging from cultural/religious contestation to legal and socio-economic grievances. Of course, making the case relevant for the research question in this thesis, the conflict also obtained the violent dimension of guerilla warfare and terrorism. In order to understand a conflict, a researcher must be aware of all these things. Consequently, this chapter will address these different aspects and how they evolved through history and galvanized the MILF and the GRP into seeking negotiations in 1997. The accounts described below are specifically focused on the two conflicting parties, the Moro’s and the Filipino’s and are primarily based on historic facts and two books, chosen to represent the different views on the conflict. One book is written by a Muslim and prominent MILF member (Jubair, 1999), and the other by a Christian writer from Mindanao (Gomez, 2000). This is to make sure that the narrative is balanced, and to make good use of the in-depth knowledge of insiders.

2.1.1. Islamic and Christian colonization of the Philippines

6 Important negotiations between the MNLF and GRP were held in Jakarta, Indonesia. The MILF has preferred a role for Malaysia as mediator, and so negotiations have often been held in the Malaysian capital Kuala Lumpur. 35

The Philippines, as we currently name it, consists of an archipelago of thousands of islands (7,641). Due to its geographical location, some of the societies populating the islands developed trade relations with Eastern, Southern and Southeastern Asia. In the first millennium this led to the growth of maritime states that were either autonomous (so-called barangays) or allied with Malay seapowers, led by Datus7, and paying tribute to China or Indianized kingdoms, ruled by Rajah’s8.

According to Clem Bascar (Bascar, 2015), Islamization of Mindanao began already at the end of 14th century. Hilario Gomez (2000) writes of Abu Bakr as the first true Islamic ruler on the Filipino islands. In 1380, Abu Bakr, an Arab trader born in Johore, arrived in Sulu from Malacca. He converted Sulu's rajah, Rajah Baguinda Ali and married his daughter. In 1450, Abu Bakr established an Islamic sultanate in island group Sulu (see figure 1). Similarly, about 1515, Muhammad Kabungsuan created an Islamic sultanate on the Mindanao mainland that ranged from Lanao del Sur to Cotabato (Gomez, 2000). From 1619 onwards, the Muslims gained true power under Sultan Qudarat of Manguidanao, who conquered and united many other surrounding clans under his banner (Jubair, 1999).

Figure 1: Map of the Philippines

The first Spanish missionary arrived in 1521 on the Visayas islands starting the spreading of the Christian faith. In 1543, the Spanish entered the Samar-Leyte islands (see figure 1) under the command of Ruy Lopez de Villalobos.

7 Leader of a local Philippine community 8 A monarch or princely ruler in South and Southeast Asia 36

In honor of their Prince, Felipe II, they named the islands las Islas Filipinas. This is when true colonization began (Gomez, 2000). By the time the Spanish began to make their way south towards Mindanao and the Sulu archipelago, Islam had already a solid foothold. Many peoples were still not converted to Islam and kept to their traditional gods (Lumads), but were nonetheless client states to the more powerful Muslims (Gomez, 2000). It is clear that despite the fact that the Muslim rulers only controlled parts of Mindanao, they established themselves on the island earlier than the Spanish Christians. When the Spanish arrived, colonized the Philippines and wanted to turn it into a Christian state, this inevitably led to conflict.

The Spanish conquistadors established several forts and bases of operation on the northern and eastern coastline of Mindanao, and in the Zamboanga peninsula. According to Jubair, heavy fighting between the Moros and the Spanish occurred from 1635-1663. From 1718 onwards, hostilities intensified again. In 1751, the Spanish introduced a ‘privateer system’ that rewarded anyone who would turn against the Moros in Mindanao. However, this did not produce any substantial gains and the Spanish were unable to gain a solid foothold inland on Mindanao (Jubair, 1999). According to Jubair (1999), the Moros were also able to bring the fight to their enemies’ doorstep instead. They raided and plundered coastal towns in the Visayas and Luzon. From 1850, the Spanish gained more military dominance and the Moros became under increasing pressure. This was worsened by internal competition between the different sultanates (Jubair, 1999). Gomez argues that somewhere at the end of the 19th century, the Moros were losing Mindanao to the Spanish. Others, like Jubair and Bascar, state that at that time a true Spanish victory was nowhere near. However interesting such scenario-thinking may be, it was of no consequence. The Spanish never hold Mindanao because in 1898 the Americans entered the battlefield.

2.1.2. American colonization: sowing the seeds for conflict

The Americans entered at an advantageous moment. The Spanish were weakened by the war against the Filipino’s on Luzon and the Visayas, and the Moros were still recovering from their clashes with the Spanish. In August of 1896, the Filipino’s rebelled against the Spanish colonial regime. After more than a year of fighting, the Spanish came out on top and forced the Filipino’s, under the command Andrès Bonifacio and Emilio Aguinaldo, to sign a surrender (Bascar, 2015).

However, due to a conflict over Cuban independence and the sinking of US navy battleship Maine, the Spanish-American war started. The Americans seized control of Manila bay and defeated the Spanish garrison inland. At the Treaty of Paris, signed at the 10th of December 1898, the Spanish surrendered the Philippine Islands to the Americans. They did not just surrender Luzon and the Visayas islands, but also included Mindanao and the Sulu archipelago, in spite of lacking any effective control in these parts. This had two reasons. First, the Spanish wanted to trade Mindanao and the Sulu archipelago in order to retain other parts. Second, the Americans were anxious that if they would not obtain the entire island group, the Spanish would sell their remaining part to another European power which could lead to future conflict (Wolff, 1961). To both the Filipino’s on the island of Luzon and the Visayas island group, as well as the Moro’s on Mindanao and the Sulu archipelago, this was unacceptable.

The Filipino’s revolted again, this time taking up arms against the Americans. From 1899 until 1902, the American-Filipino war endured with the Americans being victorious in the end. Cleverly, the Americans managed to prevent fighting the Moros simultaneously by striking a deal. The Moro’s were well aware that the Americans fought their Filipino enemy. The deal was the Kiram-Bates Treaty, which was a Treaty between the USA and the sultanate of Sulu (Kho, 2016). It contained provisions on non-interference, the recognition of American sovereignty, a respect for Islam and cultural customs or autonomy for the Muslim rulers the, right for U.S. troops to occupy some of the lands of the Sultan and a promise not to sell these lands to another nation (Jubair, 1999). The Bates Treaty only lasted until the end of 1903, when the Americans had dealt with the Filipino’s in the north and could direct their attention to the Moros. They unilaterally abrogated the treaty arguing that the Sultan had not adequately suppressed Moro resistance (Kho, 2016). This led to bloody clashes between both parties that endured until 1913.

The Americans installed direct rule in Mindanao and Sulu. They created the Moro province, which was supposed to prepare the Moros for future integration into the political system of the Philippines (Jubair, 1999; Gomez, 2000). According to the Americans, such preparation was needed due to widespread corruption and the need to civilize the Moro population (Jubair, 1999; Gomez, 2000). The first governor of the Moro province was General Lennard Wood. According to Charles Byler (2005), his stance was staunch and uncompromising. He introduced legal reform, taxation for land registration, the abolition of slavery and a general establishment of order that excluded a role for the traditional Datu-system, if necessary enforced by physical force (Byler, 2005). Such measures were highly unpopular and in stark contrast to ruling Moro traditions. His successors reversed some of these policies, especially concerning the Datu-system (Byler, 2005). Gomez concludes that Moro religion and society were hardly altered by American rule (Gomez, 2000). Jubair emphasizes in similar

38 fashion that trouble was mostly rising when the governance of Mindanao became increasingly a Filipino matter (Jubair, 1999). Both Gomez and Jubair especially point at the land registration as a measure of great importance and reason for grave dissent. This started with obligatory registration, which included the payment of a small sum. Many Moros were not aware of the Land registration Act and did not register. Moreover, the payment of the sum was seen as a tribute, something many Moros refused to pay out of principal (Jubair, 1999). Subsequently, confiscation of all unregistered and untitled lands followed. Finally, the terms for Moros to buy back land or get entitlements were discriminatory (Jubair, 1999). This caused an enormous shock in Moro society, in which land and property was central to a man’s existence (Jubair, 1999). This is an important grievance to the Moro up until today.

From 1914 onwards, civilian governance was installed. The Americans brought economic development to Mindanao and with their ‘policy of attraction’ (starting in 1916), education and further development became a possibility for the Moros (Jubair, 1999; Gomez, 2000). This policy consisted of the granting of scholarships, the building of schools, hospitals and infrastructure and gaining allegiance of Moro leaders by seducing them with nice jobs and pleasure trips, often referred to as ‘dollar diplomacy’ (Jubair, 1999).

Meanwhile, the Filipino plea for independence had regained momentum after the First World War (Zaide, 1999). Such pleas were heard and in principal welcomed in the United States, whose politicians were slightly ambiguous in the matter. Being a colonized nation themselves once, their sympathy for Filipino independence is clear. However, geopolitical reasons, such as the increasing threat of the Japanese empire and the strategic position of the Philippines for shipping routes to Asia were equally weighed. Nevertheless, in the Jones Bill of 1916, The United States expressly support Filipino Independence as soon as they could form a stable government. This would last until 1946 and entailed a handover of Mindanao and the Sulu archipelago to Filipino control. However, such control was already exercised increasingly from the 1920’s (Gomez, 2000).

The policy of resettlement was another important development, impacting on political stability. This policy to bring Filipino farmers from the crowded areas of the Visasyas Islands to the fertile lands of the Mindanao mainland was introduced in 1912. This policy was not welcomed by the Moro Muslims, who were now forced to integrate with Christian Filipino’s and share their land. Salah Jubair writes that this integration did not go well. With the Filipino’s in control, discrimination against Moros by the Filipino constabulary, the harassment of Moro women, bribery and more violations of their rights were frequent (Jubair, 1999). Gomez speaks of great animosity, especially because the Christians had sometimes sided with the Spanish and Americans against the Moros. He points at very

39 negative perceptions of the other, which were dominant in both groups, specifically with lower education groups. However, he also points to the friendships between Christians and Muslims, especially in the higher echelons of society (Gomez, 2000).

Because of this animosity, the Moros appealed several times to the American Congress that their fate should not be tied to that of the Filipino’s. The Moros would rather remain under the umbrella of American rule than be subjugated to the will of the Filipino’s (Jubair, 1999). In a petition to the Congress of the United States, a strong desire for this becomes clear:

“Therefore, we hereby solemnly and respectfully petition the Congress of the United States for redress and amelioration of our present economic and political situation, and ask you, in the name of your God and our God, who is one and the same, that you promptly grant us our request in order that this, the land of our forefathers, may not be again drenched in the blood of Mohammedans and Christians who should be dwelling together in peace and amity in the shelter of the American flag.” (Mangigin et al (1924) in (Jubair, 1999))

2.1.3. World War II, a period of reconciliation and Philippine independency

World War Two changed this enmity because Moros and Christians were mostly fighting on the same side, as brothers in arms. This created the right momentum to create an independent Filipino state that included the Moros (Jubair, 1999). On July 4, 1946, the Philippines became recognized by the United States as independent, during the presidency of Manuel Roxas. However, as would soon become clear, much discontent and enmity remained unaddressed, ready to ignite conflict.

2.1.4. Filipino rule: from an uneasy peace to overt conflict, 1946-1996

As an independent state, the Filipino’s continued most of the American policies. The political system was almost the same, with only some minor differences. Despite forged bonds of comradeship during the war, Filipino’s did not treat the Moros as their equals (Jubair, 1999). However, Gomez adds that this was similar in some respects for the way in which the Moros treated Christians. For example, when it concerned marriage, Muslim women were not allowed to marry Christian males. According to Gomez, this was a serious problem for establishing harmonious relations and integration (Gomez, 2000). Its significance cannot be underestimated because of the

40 strong kinship-system, also known as the Datu-system, which still ruled in many Moro communities. This meant that some family ties should be established as a prerequisite to fully participating in a Moro community (Gomez, 2000). Datus were supported by their tribes. In return for tribute and labor, the Datu provided aid in emergencies and advocacy in disputes with other communities and warfare through the Agama and Maratabat laws9. Manuel Roxas was the first president of the independent Philippine state. He was determined to end the oppressive Datu-system and govern the Moros properly (Jubair, 1999). The government, however, did not seriously stimulate wider economic development in Mindanao. It continued awarding contracts to large mining and timber corporations, selling the extraction rights of large swaths of land on Mindanao. Also, as a result of scaling up the resettlement program, Moro land possessions were further contracted (Jubair, 1999). Gomez draws a similar image, adding though that the corrupt Datu- system made things even worse for the ordinary citizens of Mindanao (Gomez, 2000). Resettlement led to a range of problems. The first was that Christians were doing better than their Muslim counterparts in some important respects. For example, on schools and the labor market, Christians perform better. But also when Christian companies compete with those run by Muslims, productivity and sales by Christian businesses are usually higher. This leads to a lot of dissatisfaction and envy (Gomez, 2000). And then there is the problem of representation, which Salah Jubair rightly mentions. When the Christians first settled in Mindanao around the start of 20th century, there were already many Muslims. This changed slowly in the beginning and then took up pace after the Second World War, with Christians comprising around 90 % of the population (Jubair, 1999). Consequently, in many districts, Moro candidates got outvoted by their Christian competitors due to the rapidly changing composition of the population (Jubair, 1999). In sum, Moros lost a lot of land, influence in local and regional governance, jobs and other positions. Next to that, there was also a loss of pride due to gradual loss of traditions and culture, such as Islamic schooling and the hierarchical kinship system. The latter was especially relevant concerning the implementation of Qu’ranic laws, which were enforced by the Datus in their particular townships. And finally, the Christians generally possessed more wealth than the Muslims.

All these factors led to an increase in tension between Christians and the ordinary Moro populations (Jubair, 1999). Gomez points to three reasons why in spite of all this, it took more than two decades before conflict would break out:

- due to the influx of settlers, the opposition of Christians became superior,

9 Maratabat is the honor code of the Maranaos, who live in parts of Lanao del Sur and Lanao del Norte. Maratabat can instruct violence when the family honor is lost. 41

- parts of Mindanao were still sparsely populated, - the Moros could also profit economically of productive Christian farms and, - occasional violent outbursts were successfully framed by the government as criminality (Gomez, 2000)

Nevertheless, the tensions did not decrease, and conflict broke out.

After more than two decades of structural low-level incidents, real resistance started to form on the Mindanao mainland in 1968. In response to the Jabidah massacre in 1968 on the island of Corrigidor, where 64 Moro military trainees were killed10, Datu Udtog Matalam created the Muslim/Mindanao Independence Movement (MIM). The message of MIM to no longer suffer the degradation and humiliation from the Filipinos could count on many sympathizers among the Moros, especially with young students. However, the aim of independence did not yet gain wide support, as only a quarter of the Muslim population supported this at the time (Gomez, 2000).

The MIM had issued a Manifest based on four points (Jubair, 1999):

- the right of self-determination of minorities, - support of the Islamic World Conference, - Muslims in Mindanao were, by way isolation and dispersal, systematically exterminated by the GRP and, - that Islam is a communal religion, ideology and way of life, and needs an independent territory to be exercised in

President Ferdinand Marcos, who came to power in 1965, was personally blamed for the Jabidah massacre. Separatist movements like MIM, and the Marxist insurgents who united under the New People’s Army (NPA) in 1968, harmed his authority. According to Thompson, Marcos was committed to uniting the Philippines under his leadership with an ambitious development program. He was convinced that the oligarchical system of the Philippines, with many political families having disproportionate power, was hampering the county’s development (Thompson, 2014). Therefore, he needed to react strongly.

Marcos first reacted with diplomatic tact by extending an invitation to Datu Matalam to meet him in person. He appointed Matalam as his adviser on Muslim affairs. Matalam took the bait and for someone who was already representing vested interest, making a deal with Marcos did no good to his reputation with the ordinary Moro. However, he also failed to unite all Moro groups to his cause

10 Supposedly, this happened because they refused to participate in a mission to claim the Sabah territory. Marcos had laid claim on the Malaysian part of Borneo, on the premise that it used to belong to the Sulu sultanate. 42 because of another reason. The MIM never became a popular movement of the masses through its lack of bottom-up organization and communications. Other groups did not fare much better between 1968 and 1971. The Banga Moro Liberation Front (BMLO), which was created in 1970 by prominent Moro leaders such as Rashid Lucman, Salipada Pendatun and Ahmah Alonto, managed to attract external funds from Libya. However, it was never strong enough to unite all of the Moro rebel groups (Jubair, 1999). The Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) was created by students in 1969 in Manila. One of these students was Nur Misuari, an ethnic Tausug from Sulu. Misuari believed especially in the historic oppression of the Moros and their right to secede from the Philippines (Jubair, 1999). Other groups were more oriented towards pan-Islamism, emphasizing the unity of Muslims and their shared struggle (jihad). These already dated back to the early sixties, when they were created by students of the Al-Azhar University in Cairo. Among these students was Hashim Salamat. The time in Cairo laid the foundation for his revolutionary ideas. The contacts with the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) were instructive in this sense. It also enabled Hashim to enter a network of global Islamic activists (Gomez, 2000). The year 1968 marked an important moment for students worldwide, with demonstrations in all corners of the world. Also inspired by the Arab-Israeli war in 1967, the momentum for Islamic students to organize themselves to protect Muslim rights could not be better. Other movements also came up, such as the Barracudas under the command Ali Dimaporo, and the Llagas under the command of Feliciano Luces. The former was a Muslim militant group while the latter was a Christian reactionary group (Jubair, 1999). Fighting between these groups and between elements of the MIM and the Philippine Constabulary was frequent from 1971 onwards (Jubair, 1999).

Meanwhile, the communist insurgency was the most dangerous threat to the Marcos regime. Both rebellious movements, Muslim-separatist and communist, were becoming stronger. To turn the tables, on the 21th of September 1972, Marcos declared Martial Law all over the Philippines. In his famous proclamation 1081, he gave several reasons which ‘left him no other choice’:

- Relentless bombing of the Manila metropole area since March 1972 - Fast-growing insurgencies - Mass import of weapons, both light and heavy - A very violent and radical ideology, especially with communist groups such as the New People’s Army11 who he compared with the communists in Vietnam.

11 The New People’s Army had produced a regional program for 1972 that called for mass recruitment, propaganda programs, armed training and creating chaos through attacks on a wide range of legitimate targets, robbery and sabotage. (Central Committee NPA, 1972) 43

- Committing more than 50 % of the armed forces and suspending the right of habeas corpus have not worked to stop the chaos - The economies in parts of Mindanao and Sulu had come to a halt, in such areas a factual state of war existed - More than half a million refugees

Marcos declared the following: “NOW, THEREFORE, I, FERDINAND E. MARCOS, President of the Philippines, by virtue of the powers vested upon me by Article VII, Section 10, Paragraph (2) of the Constitution, do hereby place the entire Philippines as defined in Article I, Section 1 of the Constitution under martial law and, in my capacity as their commander-in-chief, do hereby command the armed forces of the Philippines, to maintain law and order throughout the Philippines, prevent or suppress all forms of lawless violence as well as any act of insurrection or rebellion and to enforce obedience to all the laws and decrees, orders and regulations promulgated by me personally or upon my direction.” (Marcos, 1972)

The declaration of Martial Law gave the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and law- enforcement organizations unrestricted power to arrest, detain and torture indiscriminately. Human rights abuses were frequent. This caused a further escalation of the conflict. On the 21th of October, heavy fighting breaks out between Muslim militants under the command of Ahmad Alonto and the ARP. More clashes followed and the MNLF, who had secretly attracted many adherents and resources, claimed leadership of the Moro secessionist movement (Jubair, 1999). Nur Misuari had been chosen as its leader, just before Hashim Salamat. The MNLF proved itself on the Mindanao mainland and Sulu archipelago during a conventional war (1972-1975) and a guerilla war (1975-1977) (Jubair, 1999). According to Santos (Santos Jr, 2001), Misuari united the thirteen ethno-linguistic Muslim groups in Mindanao, Palawan and Sulu with a common identity and goal for statehood. He proclaimed the Moro Manifesto where he stated that Filipino colonialism had oppressed and terrorized the Moro population, even accusing them of genocide. Moreover, their land had been stolen and mosques had been desecrated (Santos, 2001). However, his autocratic rule of the MNLF led to two splits.

The most important one came just after the Tripoli Agreement of December 197612. With the agreement, the MNLF and GRP sued for peace under the condition of the creation of an autonomous

12 Peace accord brokered in Tripoli, under the auspices of the Quadripartite Commission (Libya, Indonesia, Malaysia and Senegal). This accord establishes autonomy within the realm of sovereignty and territorial integrity of the GRP. Many things were left open, but the region would get its own administration. Also, the right to set up Courts which implement Sharia laws was provisioned. The treaty reaffirmed the sole prerogative 44 region, comprising of certain parts of Mindanao, Palawan and the Sulu archipelago (Tripoli agreement, 1976). The agreement would form an important reference for all future negotiations. The most important elements of the agreement were: 1) autonomy within the realm of sovereignty and territorial integrity of the GRP, 2) in the autonomous area, Muslims can set up Sharia Courts, 3) the authorities will have their own economic and financial system, 4) special regional police forces are created, 5) a ceasefire, 6) mineral resources and mines fall within the competence of the Central Government, which shall allocate a reasonable percentage to the autonomous region, and 7) a mixed committee shall be formed to deal with all points left for discussion. Many points were still not fixed and this made the agreement multi-interpretable.

For some influential commanders, the agreement represented an undermining of the true cause of the rebellion: an independent Islamic state. Furthermore, Misuari’s autocratic leadership caused much discontent. Under the leadership of Hashim Salamat, a splinter movement within the MNLF was created called the ‘New MNLF Leadership’. Misuari responded by branding the group’s leaders as traitors and outcasts (Jubair, 1999). The New MNLF Leadership would grow into an entirely new movement in 1984: the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). The MILF had a ten year program based on four points:

- Islamization - Organizational build-up - Military build-up - Self-reliance

It drew its lessons from certain failures within the MNLF. It is clear that the centralized governance structure of the MNLF caused many frictions. The MILF wanted to build an organization from the bottom-up. Also, it strictly stuck to its ideology of Islamization, something of which the MNLF had dwindled, favoring a more secular disposition. And, despite the fact that the MNLF had secured wide international support, this similarly made them over-dependent on such actors. The Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) had proved itself a powerful partner in the 1970s. They had proclaimed the MNLF the legitimate representative of the Moro people and some of its most prominent members had put great pressure on the Marcos regime by threatening an oil embargo (Santos, 2001). However, by appealing for such help, the MNLF had made a trade-ff. Its decision- making autonomy diminished because of such strong external powers. Lastly, there is military build- up. The unilateral implementation by Marcos of the Tripoli Agreement and its subsequent failure, had taught the MILF that peace negotiations were no guarantee for real peace at all (Jubari, 1999). of the GRP over foreign policy and extraction rights of mineral resources. Lastly, a general amnesty was decreed and a ceasefire was to be installed immediately. 45

Therefore, it was deemed necessary to keep pushing for more military power, even when conducting negotiations (Santos Jr, 2005).

In 1986, Marcos was ousted through a revolution of the people. His dictatorial and corrupt rule came to an end by an extraordinary uprising on the 22th of February 1986. Over two million Filipino’s assembled at Epifanio de los Santos Avenue (EDSA) to demand his departure. Benigno Aquino, who was a fierce opponent of Marcos, became the symbol of the revolution. He was murdered on his return to the Philippines after he was forced to flee earlier. In part because of her celebrated husband, Corazon Aquino won the next elections. Corazon Aquino was a reformer and wanted to fight corruption and restore the rule of law (Santos, 2001). This made her make a move towards establishing peace with the MNLF. She met with Misuari personally in summitry style (for summitry see section 1.3.4.1.) and the two agreed to continue the peace process. An accord followed in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia in 1987. In Jeddah, the negotiators of the GRP and the MNLF agreed to discuss autonomy (OPAPP, 2016). Aquino was keen to cover the introduction of the ARMM within the Constitution because she was supposed to be the keeper of the rule of law after the EDSA revolution.

She ordered the drafters of the new Constitution to include such provisions for granting autonomy. The MNLF wanted more time and a seat at the table when such provisions were made up. Aquino refused and proceeded, like Marcos before her, on her own. This made the peace process collapse (OPAPP, 2016). During her presidency, this was never revived. This period of enduring stalemate gave other militant groups the ability to grow in relative anonymity. The MILF once broke this silence to signal its existence, strength and disapproval of the ARMM when they launched a five-day offensive in 1987 (Jubair, 1999). Another group arose out of disapproval of the MNLF-course in 1991. Abdujarik Janjalani, ex-MNLF, created the more extreme Abu Sayyaf Group (Jones & Libicki, 2008). Against the communist rebellion, Aquino was very successful during her presidency. With a sound military strategy and aid from the USA, the AFP brought Communist numbers severely down (more on this in section 2.3.3 where the military strategy of the AFP, which was partly based on these military successes, is explained).

When Fidel Ramos came to power, the peace process regained its momentum. Under the guidance of the OIC, peace talks were held in Jakarta from 1993-1996. This resulted in the signing of the Final Peace Agreement between the GRP and the MNLF on the 2nd of September 1996. The MILF, not convinced by the terms agreed to by the MNLF in the Final Peace Agreement, continued armed resistance. The government, reluctant to recognize another rebel group as legitimate, first tried to subdue the MILF by force. When this did not work, a ceasefire was agreed to on the 18th of July 1997 (Jubair, 1999).

2.2. Starting negotiations and Estrada’s all-out war

2.2.1. Timeline of events

A chronological overview of events is provided in the timeline. In the timeline, the categorization of the events into context, state or group is made by coloring the boxes. When context is coupled with state, it means this event describes an interaction between the context and state. The same holds for context-group. When state and group are coupled, there is an interaction between them. When it is labeled under ‘ALL’, this means that both the state and the group are interacting with parties in the context in this event. Colors:

- Light green : State-Group - Light blue : Context - Yellow : Group - Gold : State - Grey : State-Context - Light green 2 : Group-Context - Orange : All

Date Event Description Actor(s) Jan 1997 Start Peace process Low level representatives of GRP, GRP, MILF MILF explore peace July 1997 Ceasefire Parties agreed to de-escalate GRP, MILF July 1997 Asian financial crisis Asian financial crisis hits the Financial markets Philippines hard September CCCH created, The joint Coordinating Committee GRP, MILF 1997 implementing on the Cessation of Hostilities is guidelines signed created. October Implementation Social The Social Fund is created to spur GRP, MNLF 1997 Fund for SZOPAD development and recovery in the SZOPAD June 1998 Elections Joseph Estrada gets elected, Gloria GRP

Arroyo is elected as Vice-President August General framework GRP and MILF agree to pursue GRP, MILF 1998 agreement of Intent peace October Formal peace talks GRP and MILF begin negotiations GRP, MILF 1999 start on high level December United Coordinating A coordination of efforts and views MILF, MNLF 1999 Council created without MNLF leader Misuari December Ozamis bombing A ferry in the harbor of Ozamis city MNLF suspected 1999 was bombed, killing 37 people. March Kauswagan attack MILF commander Bravo attacks a MILF 2000 town hall in Kauswagan, killing many innocents. March All-out war policy In response to increasing terrorist GRP, MILF, ASG 2000 declared attacks, Estrada seeks to destroy the terrorists and their safe havens April 2000 Sipadan hostage crisis ASG takes 21 hostages on island of ASG, Malaysia, GRP Sipadan in front of Malaysian Sabah July 2000 Fall of MILF main The AFP overruns the last real GRP, MILF camp Abubakar stronghold of the MILF July 2000 All-out jihad Hashim Salamat flees to Malaysia MILF, GRP, Malaysia and declares all-out jihad November Impeachment On allegations of corruption, an GRP, (Congress) 2000 proceedings started Impeachment trial was started against Estrada December Rizal day terrorist Five bombs went off in different JI, MILF special 2000 bombings locations in Metro Manila, killing operations group 22, wounding 100+ January EDSA II protests Because of a seemingly GRP, population 2001 manipulated impeachment trial, hundreds of thousands Filipino’s protested for Estrada’s resignation January Estrada ousted, The military withdrew its support GRP, AFP 2001 Arroyo elected of Estrada and supported Arroyo.

This led to Estrada’s resignation. February All-out peace policy Arroyo declares all-out peace, GRP, MILF 2001

2.2.2. Context

It is important to gain an understanding of the context of the conflict to get a situational picture. This is the environment in which our main actors of analysis, the GRP and the MILF, make operational and policy decisions.

International

The international environment starting in 1997 was seemingly more complicated than it used to be: with the collapse of the Berlin wall and the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the world gained new dimensions of struggle and conflict. Jihadi terrorism is increasingly established in global networks and conflicts were longer tied to great power support in the way they used to do (for example the Arab-Israeli conflict, the Korea War, Ethiopian Civil War and the Angolan Civil War).

For the Philippines, in 1997, the AFP was severely depleted in resources. Similarly, the communists did not receive the aid they were used to because of the disintegration of the Soviet Union. The AFP no longer received large support from the USA in money, military equipment and advice. About 80 % of its expenditures were directed at covering personnel expenses. No investments could be made to replace the rusted materials and worn out equipment (Cruz de Castro, 2010).

On the economic front, the period from 1997 onwards was characterized by economic stagnation all over South East Asia (Fischer, 1998). Because of the Asian financial crisis, the Philippine peso devalued substantially. Subsequently, assets on stock markets devalued. This affected the Philippine real economy, which experienced years of stagnation. This was bad news for the military, which was in dire need of funds. Moreover, it also meant that the implementation of the FPA would get harder, which required substantial investment in the Special Zone of Peace and Development (SZOPAD, October 1997).

The political situation at the start of the negotiations was difficult for the MILF. The OIC has supported the MNLF since its inception in 1972, and decreed it the sole representative of the Moro

49 people on 22 May 1977. It has continued to do so after the signing of Final Peace Agreement in 1996. This is not surprising since the OIC had put much effort into reaching the FPA. In this respect, the OIC now supported the Philippine government in its execution of the FPA. Important member states, such as Libya, Indonesia and Malaysia shared the opinion that a solution must be found within the boundaries of the constitution and Philippine sovereignty (Peng, 2008). Rizal Buendia explains that MILF pleas for support were not granted by the OIC. The OIC pleaded for a solution of the conflict within the boundaries of the Constitution and Philippine territorial integrity (Buendia, 2004). The MILF wanted to separate from the Philippines instead of accessing the system or sharing power in it, and rejected the Constitution (Santos, 2005). Therefore, the MILF could not obtain effective support from the UN or OIC for its plea of self-determination. The group’s continued affiliation with jihadi terrorism made this even worse (Buendia, 2004). This will be further elaborated on in the national and state sections.

National

The Asian crisis affected the economy of the Philippines. In the wake of this economic crisis the development of SZOPAD by the Southern Philippines Council for Peace and Development (SPCPD) did not go well. Both due to lacking funds and mismanagement, the project did not result in economic development and improved livelihoods (Buendia, 2004). For the MNLF this meant the beginning of splintering. The more radical commanders joined the MILF or started to organize themselves. Naturally, this lack of success presented an excellent opportunity to MILF to gain support and recruit fighters. Within the MNLF, two big groups remained in 2001, the Misuari group, which was strongest in the Sulu archipelago, and the Anti-Misuari Council of 15. Furthermore, the military strength of MNLF was weakened under the FPA because many fighters demobilized. The MNLF was committed to the success of the FPA. The group’s fate was tied to it. However, besides the failure of the SZOPAD, only a limited amount (7250) of fighters were integrated into the Philippine national police (PNP) and AFP. Those who tried to integrate back into civil life could not profit from the peace dividend (Santos, 2005).

In the meantime, in part due to weakened AFP capabilities and inadequate PNP capabilities and expertise, the Philippines became a safe haven for jihadi fighters. Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) established a training base in Mindanao and ASG attracted many fighters (Santos, 2005; (ICG, 2008a). On its peak in 2001, ASG counted 1200 active members (Cruz de Castro, 2010). This had led to more and bigger terrorist attacks, such as the Ozamis bombing (Santos, 2005). Also, the amount of hostage-taking increased considerably (see timeline). For the government, MILF involvement with the ASG and foreign jihadi fighters by either harboring perpetrators or giving assistance in executing

50 such attacks meant that a peace deal was off the table (see state). The ASG was already a true spoiler of peace in this period (ICG, 2004).

Local

Whereas the MNLF was focused upon getting its claim recognized in the international community, the MILF also used a bottom-up approach, laying a solid foundation as a grassroots movement. The MILF tried to gain more support under the local population. It organized a large plebiscite to ask for support from the local population. This would help generate the legitimacy it needed to negotiate with the government (McKenna, 1998). Also it organized a parallel governance structure (explained under group), which enabled them to engage actively with the local population. This also allowed people to seek their rights on the basis of Islamic law (Torres, 2007).

Economically, Mindanao suffered from the national economic contraction as a consequence of the Asian financial crisis. However, another specific local problem was also manifest. Due to the increasing kidnappings of the ASG, the business climate worsened. Foreign investment and tourism was dropping and businesses rather settled elsewhere (Fischer, 1998; Abuza, 2003).

Such kidnappings also have a negative effect on social cohesion. Christians became increasingly afraid of the Islamic kidnapping gangs. The practice of rido remained a source of tension. According to Wilfredo Mango Torres, the practice of rido refers to: “a state of recurring hostilities between families and kinship groups characterized by a series of retaliatory acts of violence carried out to avenge a perceived affront or injustice.” (Torres, 2007) His compilation of studies into rido in Mindanao concluded that the presence of the MILF led to an increased occurrence of rido. Because people can address their problems through different justice systems, government and MILF enforced, conflicts often erupt (Torres, 2007). Rido is almost never solved through the formal justice system, but always through traditional conflict resolution (Torres, 2007). Rido is an important local phenomenon which should be adequately taken into consideration in any peace agreement. It has to potential to spoil any hard-won peace made on the national/international level.

2.2.3. State

After his successful negotiation of peace with the MNLF, Ramos also sought peace with the MILF. This got well underway during 1997, with both parties exchanging views in exploratory talks and the creation of the Coordinating Committee for the Cessation of Hostilities. Skirmishes and mistrust remained a problem though, especially around the town of Buldon (Jubair, 1999). Both

51 parties were more concerned with troop movements and violations of the peace (Jubair, 1999). Because Ramos’ term was ending, the goal of reaching a true peace agreement was left to his successor, Joseph Estrada. The government position on a peace deal would not change significantly. The GRP maintained that for the MILF a similar solution must be found as for the MNLF, taking some of their special demands into consideration. However, this must be done within the framework of the Constitution (Jubair, 1999).

Bargaining could also serve as an effective way to bide time. This could serve two purposes: to gain an advantageous military position or to undercut popular support for the separatist movement by stimulating development. Both did not happen, not under Ramos or Estrada (Santos, 2005). Estrada was from another party and did not come from a powerful Filipino political family. Nevertheless, this did not mean he would alter his predecessor’s course on the peace process. Ramos focused on attaining peace to boost economic development and Estrada continued this policy (Santos, 2001). A substantial and meaningful development program for SZOPAD never came about. The military remained in a weak state. With a government deficit of about 4 %, budget cuts were inescapable13.

Estrada faced many internal struggles. Such struggles inevitably had their effect on the peace process. He had a large popular mandate, and having a background as an actor and coming from a more humble upbringing, Estrada was able to relate much better to the ordinary and poor citizens. Because of the president’s far-fetched control over the budget, he was also in a good position to reward his followers and loyal backers from the elections (Thomson, 2014). However, his control over extra-electoral groups was more limited. Groups like the church, the military, civil society activists and businesses can be fierce opponents for a president. Estrada failed to secure support of three of these groups (Thomson, 2014). His image of a hero for the poor, and bad economic conditions were debit to this.

Economically, his government experienced a period of stagnation or low growth. Government debt continuously increased (see Figure 2). By ending all sovereign guarantees for businesses that were rewarded public contracts, Estrada lost business sector support. Also, and especially relevant, by starting an anti-corruption campaign against some high-ranking military officers, he antagonized the AFP. Due to corruption allegations that were picked up by civil society organizations, the pressure mounted. An impeachment trial in the Senate was started against him. When his supporters blocked the use of a certain piece of information (in a closed envelope), his

13 Source: Department of Finance Philippines 52 opponents left the Senate floor. Protests emerged quickly and a new EDSA revolution erupted. When the military withdrew its support, Estrada had to back down in January 2001 (Thomson, 2014).

Figure 2: Development of Philippines Government debt to GDP.

The internal struggles had a clear effect on the conflict. In response to increasing terrorist attacks and some large scale clashes with the MILF in 1999, Estrada had ordered the all-out war against the MILF and the ASG in March 2000 (Cruz de Castro, 2010). Moreover, a war could serve as a good way to divert attention from the corruption scandals. Possibly, due to inspection of the camps for their recognition as MILF areas, the GRP was alarmed by what was going on in these camps (see section 2.2.4.) The struggle was violent and costly. More than a million people got internally displaced and the costs were estimated at 1.3 billion pesos (about $30 million) (OPAPP, 2016). However, the AFP could be considered successful in this conventional war with MILF and ASG, overrunning all camps of the MILF. In spite of this, losses and costs were also high. Because of inadequate military capacity and the MILF shift to guerilla warfare, it was hard to press the MILF into real surrender (Buendia, 2004). Consequently, Estrada could not reap any future peace dividend which made his presidency more vulnerable. This culminated in corruption charges, an impeachment trial and a people power revolution from the middle and upper class. Estrada was deposed and succeeded by his Vice-President Gloria Arroyo, who had led the coalition against him (ICG, 2004).

2.2.4. Group

During the major clashes of 1996/beginning 1997, the MILF experienced that it had the means to resist the government. This gave the group a lot of confidence and momentum. Attracting ex-combatants from the MNLF and others, their ranks swelled. Estimates of MILF strength at that time ranged from 10,000 to 35,000 fighters (Buendia, 2004). Their fighters were highly organized and concentrated on the Mindanao mainland (Santos, 2005). The fundaments of the MILF program formulated in the 1980s had not changed: military build-up, Islamization, organizational build-up and self-reliance. These pillars were all deemed important for achieving the end goal of Bangsamoro independence. The MILF had a flexible strategy on how this could be done.

It was deemed important though to establish a sound organization to engage with the population, undermine government control and increase its legitimacy. To this end, the MILF set up a shadow government. The MILF organizational structure resembled the government levels of central, provincial, municipality and barangay layers of governance. Each level of governance had its own tasks and responsibilities within a designated area. The areas of the MILF were divided into ten provinces, to be governed by the Provincial Committees. These were responsible to execute bigger organizational programs and policies. The Municipal Committees were responsible for smaller programs and governance. The Barangay Committees were set up to implement policies and enforce Islamic law on a local level. Heading these committees was the Jihad Executive Council, in charge of day-to-day affairs, and the Central Committee. The MILF Central Committee meets two times a year, except in case of an emergency, and determines the overall policy and strategy. Members also had leading positions in daily governance, such as head of Military affairs or Political affairs. The Vice- President for Political Affairs for example, Ghazali Jaafar, managed the Committee-structure. Important is that for each committee, there was a designated division or platoon of the Internal Security Forces, that aided in enforcing the law and keeping order. This structure eroded the authority of the government in these areas significantly (Taya, 2007).

Besides a military struggle, the MILF leaders also believed in the importance of a diplomatic struggle. The strategy was not limited to ways for achieving military victory, but also included the use of diplomacy and peace. The MILF, in contrast to the CPP/NPA, did consent to an agreement to limit violence during negotiations (Santos, 2005). Such pauses and peace could also be used to the groups’ advantage, promoting rehabilitation and development (Santos, 2005). From the onset of the negotiations, the MILF presented its agenda:

- Recognition of the Moros’ ancestral domain and of their displacement and landlessness;

- Reparation for victims of the war for such acts as destruction of property and violation of human rights; - Ending of social and cultural discrimination; - Solution to economic inequalities and widespread poverty among the Moros; - Ending of exploitation by outsiders of the Moro homeland’s natural resources; - Implementation of genuine agrarian reform.

The main problem in the negotiations related to the concept of ancestral domain. The MILF contended that it was willing to negotiate on territory which would belong to a new juridical entity, but never on what was included under the ancestral domain of the Moros (Bacani, 2006). This would be seen as a betrayal to their ancestors and as a denial of the land expropriation that the Moros had suffered. It is not impossible though, that this is a part of their long-term strategy. Because the MILF still favored independence and did not distance itself from this goal (Santos, 2005), one can infer that such an autonomous juridical entity is merely an intermediate phase towards an independent state. Recognition of the ancestral domain would legitimize their long-term claim. Significant in this was the continued drive for the recognition of its camps. The MILF reasoned that by way of recognition, its legitimacy was enhanced and so was its claim on these pieces of territory. These were no ordinary camps. Some of the camps comprised of thousands of hectares. Also, they consisted of many facilities for training, education and governance (Ressa, 2003). On this will be elaborated more in phase two. To the MILF, steps in the peace process did not have to be big, as long they were solid and irreversible (ICG, 2004). The same step-by-step reasoning can be applied to the issue of a short- term autonomous territory, an intermediate phase, versus long-term independence on the basis of ancestral domain.

Hashim Salamat had nurtured ties with foreign jihadi fighters during his studies in Egypt, his period as a foreign spokesman for the MNLF and during his time in exile as chairman of the MILF (Jubair, 1999). Therefore, it can be considered very logical that he welcomed many foreign jihadi fighters to the Philippines during the 1990’s. As some of its leading fighters were trained in Pakistan and Afghanistan, it was easy for them to relate to foreign jihadi fighters. Consequently, mixing and integration happened. So how did this work?

In the late 1990s, because of increasing pressure on Pakistan, jihadi training camps are moved from Pakistan to Mindanao. The MILF, being established in Pakistan during the 1980s, was familiar in both worlds (Mckenna, 1998). The Philippines were a good choice for several reasons. First, the Philippines was a tourist-friendly state with minimal visa requirements. Second, financial oversight was lacking which was especially important for the funding structure of many jihadi groups.

These relied on the gifts of the ummah14, local population support, charities from NGO’s and mosques, crowd-funding through websites and keeping their funds in confidential banks. Third, there was a good-functioning system for remittances. Fourth, border controls, particularly in the Sulu archipelago were lacking, which was important for smuggling. Fifth, the endemic corruption in many parts of the Philippines created an environment of lawlessness and state failure. And sixth, there was ample supply of illegal firearms on the black market (Abuza, 2003). Members of the ASG, and foreign jihadi fighters from JI and other groups used the MILF training camps. Separate small camps were set up inside the MILF training camps (Quilala, 2007). These camps were called Camp Palestine, Camp Hodeiba and Camp Vietnam (Ressa, 2003). According to Thomas Hegghammer, between 1997 and 2000, somewhere around 70 foreign fighters entered the Philippines (Hegghammer, 2010). Ressa (2003) stated that only the Indonesians already counted a 1000 men which received training in the MILF camps (Ressa, 2003). Most of them were connected to JI or another branch of Al-Qaeda (Ressa, 2003). And if this was not the case, they were at least all adhering to the same pan-Islamist mother movement (Heghammer, 2010). According to Heghammer, foreign fighters and international terrorists sometimes cooperate but can similarly compete over resources. Heghammer stated that foreign fighters are different in that they have more popular support than international terrorists, fight in insurgencies against combatants, and can raise funds and other means easier (Heghammer, 2010).

For Al-Qaeda and the MILF, this was similarly true. The two organizations sprang from the same well and cooperated. Already in the 1980s, Al Qaeda set up a sophisticated financial network in the Philippines. Mohammed Jamal Khalifa, Osama Bin Laden’s brother in law, travelled to the Philippines to create this (Ressa, 2003). Khalifa created confidential bank accounts and used Islamic NGOs, smaller sub-organizations and mosques to raise funds for terrorist- or armed operations. Al- Qaeda provided a vast network of intelligence, experts and resources that the MILF would profit from. Especially in the 1990s, its funding operations were conducted unabated (Ressa, 2003). The MILF provided Al-Qaeda with men and a safe haven to train and plan its operations. Ressa shows that the two organizations were intimately connected by giving certain examples. She mentions the case of Fathur Roman Al-Ghozi, an Indonesian member of JI, and Muhklas, a Filipino and chief of the MILF Special Operations Group15. Al-Ghozi was recruited by a man called Bin Abbas, or Solaiman. Solaiman was head of the Mantiqi 3 division of JI, which comprised the Southern Philippines and parts of Indonesia. Solaiman worked for the head of JI, Abdullah Sungkar, who was a personal friend of Bin Laden and created the JI-branch of Al-Qaeda in Southeast Asia. Al-Ghozi was working with

14 The world Islamic community 15 This MILF unit was in charge of executing terrorist attacks. 56

Muhklas on a bombing in Manila in December 2000. They worked for a man called Hambali, who was head of operations for JI and also high up in the ranks of Al-Qaeda. Hambali simultaneously planned the Christmas bombings in Indonesia that month (Ressa, 2003). It becomes clear that the network was highly interconnected. According to Ressa (2003), the terrorist groups were at the peak of their strength at this time, with ASG numbering up to 4000 members. Such double affiliations were not only true for the top branch. Other members that work for the MILF have sometimes joined operations for JI (Ressa, 2003). All in all, it is no wonder that the MILF counted upon the fighting strength and financial support of the Al-Qaeda linked terrorist network.

For the international diplomatic struggle, this did not produce favored results. For the government, this was even more problematic. Estrada could not be seen as negotiating with terrorists who bomb their own people. When the MILF was suspected of aiding in the Ozamis bombing, negotiations with the government halted. For its long-term strategy, ties with JI and ASG were not without negative consequences. The MILF wanted to secure recognition of the camps, but failed because of the unexpected all-out war, triggered by terrorist attacks. On the other hand, when the MILF was losing the all-out war, Hashim Salamat could rely on these violent groups for aid when he called for an all-out jihad in the summer of 2000 (ICG, 2004). It made the MILF threat of using terrorism more credible, which could be used as leverage. Also, the MILF could use the expertise of such groups as ASG and JI when they shifted to guerilla warfare. Due to this tactic, the government was unable to implement a peace dividend on the local population of Mindanao. Operations to maintain pressure were unattainable for the understaffed, badly equipped AFP (Cruz de Castro, 2010). Consequently, the MILF could survive, despite having made a strategic error to engage overtly with the global jihadi network.

2.2.5. Main observations

This period is marked by the initial surge for peace. This was however hampered by a number of factors. Due to a lack of funds development programs did not progress. The Asian financial crisis hit the Philippines and government budgets experienced strong deficits. Also, the MILF and other terrorist groups were allowed the space to strengthen themselves. In terms of generating public support and building up the military, the MILF and Communist movement made substantial gains. In relation to military build-up, the MILF used its connections with former Jihadist colleagues from the Afghanistan mujahedeen, for profitable exchange in training and fighters and funding. The MILF could also recruit many of the disgruntled fighters of the MNLF. For the MILF, such military build-up

57 gave them a better bargaining position within their diplomatic struggle. In relation to organizational build-up, the MILF set up its shadow government and enforced its control over the areas surrounding the camps. This effectively enhanced legitimacy, public support and undermined the government.

These developments were suspiciously observed by the government and later spoiled the beginning of the formal peace talks. Because of increasing terrorist attacks by groups like ASG and JI (sometimes linked to the MILF Special Operations Group), the governments’ credibility was at stake. Also, mistrust had grown as more frequent and deadly violations of the ceasefire occurred. For the MILF, peace negotiations were also a struggle. The AFP also violated the ceasefire. Moreover, it was hard for the MILF to convince their members, especially the more radical wings, of the gains won through diplomacy. With the failure of the SCPDP and a weak ARMM, the reputation of the MNLF had suffered a severe blow. Its subsequent splintering into several factions was an important lesson for the MILF.

The MILF could only address the grievances felt by the Moro population by bargaining a peace. Local conditions did not improve and this was an important part of their mandate to continue fighting. Communal discontent and a deprivation of social needs are important factors for sustaining the protracted social conflict (Azar, 1990) in Mindanao. Addressing these things was important for the MILF and would require a peace deal. Despite restraints on government actions due to deteriorated economic conditions and increased MILF military and organizational capability, the group did not capitalize on these developments. The MILF overstepped and lost its potential gains. The links with ASG and JI worked as spoilers and its position as a military power was distrusted. As an incremental peace process, focused upon recognition of the MILF camps, was part of the MILF strategy, the all-out war and loss of the camps was a severe setback. The MILF did not pay enough attention to internal dynamics within the state, where Estrada came under increasing pressure. In such circumstances, a rally to the flag war scenario is not unthinkable. This is also an opportunity for the state, something the MILF did not see coming.

For Estrada, the serious attacks and increasing public outrage about hostage-takings provided an opportunity. The all-out war was partly successful, almost every camp of the MILF was overrun and Hashim had to flee to Malaysia. Unfortunately for Estrada, he could not push through and profit from this development. This had two reasons. First, the MILF went underground and shifted to guerilla-warfare. Second, due to his unpopularity with important extra-electoral groups such as the military and businesses, he was vulnerable. By cleverly framing Estrada as corrupt and unreliable, he was deposed. For the peace process, this showed that internal spoilers are just as important as

58 external spoilers. Also, it appeared that the situation on the ground must be relatively peaceful (with predictable troop movements), for the necessary trust to arise.

2.3. Arroyo and the global war on terror (2001-2005)

2.3.1. Timeline of events

Date Event Description Actor(s) March Kuala Lumpur agreement Resumption GRP-MILF peace talks Malaysia, GRP, 2001 MILF March Second organic act for the Organic act adopted, MNLF protests GRP 2001 ARMM that it is not faithful to FPA April 2001 Storming of presidential Presidential palace Malacanang is GRP, population palace stormed by Estrada supporters, Arroyo calls on the army to intervene April 2001 Coup for MNLF leadership, Council of 15 created, Misuari is Parouk Hussin, Misuari ousted deposed Hatimil Hassan, Mulsimin Sema April 2001 Misuari creates own Misuari creates his own organization MNLF, GRP organization (look up name) with loyalists on Sulu, May 2001 Hostage taking Dos Palmas, ASG takes hostages, in an attempt to ASG, GRP, Palawan free the hostages, 22 soldiers and 5 International hostages are killed community May 2001 National legislative and local Result elections, Communists win Congress, elections seats in Congress population May 2001 Communist numbers swell From 4500 members in 1995, the CPP, NPA, KM again movement reaches 10 000 members again June 2001 Coordinative and Integrative Cabinet Oversight Committee on GRP System for Internal Security Internal Security drafted the National Internal Security Plan

June 2001 Tripoli agreement on Peace GRP and MILF agree to center peace GRP, MILF talks on three domains: ancestral domain, security and rehabilitation. August Implementing guidelines Installment Local Monitoring Teams GRP, MILF 2001 security aspect Tripoli (LMT’s), call for International Agreement Monitoring Team (IMT) August Bangsamoro Development Joint initiative MILF and MNLF to MILF, MNLF 2001 Agency - Solidarity Fund develop the Bangsamoro area September Terrorist attacks Al-Qaeda Deadly attacks against the World Al-Qaeda, USA 2001 Trade Center in New York and other targets. In response: ‘global war on terror’ November ARMM elections Parouk Hussin elected new ARMM Council of 15, 2001 governor, Misuari supporters population boycott elections November Pro-Misuari forces revolt On Sulu and in Zamboanga City, MNLF, GRP, 2001 Misuari loyalists revolt but are Malaysia defeated by AFP. Misuari flees to Sabah but is arrested. December MNLF Plea with United Misuari, out of frustration with the MNLF-Misuari, 2001 Nations, submittal of draft GRP unilateral implementation of UN declaration of independence the ARMM, seeks aid with the UN. January Misuari repatriated to the Upon his return, Misuari is arrested MNLF, GRP 2002 Philippines and detained for rebellion.

January Start of US-Philippine Balikatan operation. Pursuing GRP, USA 2002 offensive against ASG on terrorists on Basilan Island until June Basilan 2002 May 2002 Implementing guidelines Work together to help civilians in GRP, MILF rehabilitation aspect Tripoli conflict areas. Recognition by GRP of Agreement the MILF-run Bangsamoro Development Agency May 2002 Creation AHJAG Creation of the Ad Hoc Joint Action GRP, MILF Group, creating a coordination body

to coordinate actions against criminals May 2002 Joint Coordination Council The MILF and MNLF agree to MILF, MNLF coordinate their efforts towards a Executive Council unified Bangsamoro homeland February Buliok offensive AFP launches an unexpected large- GRP 2003 scale attack on the MILF Islamic Center Headquarters March, Davao- airport, wharf The Davao airport bombing killed MILF, JI April 2003 bombings 21, the Davao wharf bombing suspected claimed 17 lives March Bombing power Power transmission towers are MILF suspected 2003 transmission towers bombed, causing one major power collapse. March, Arrest warrants against MILF After the Davao airport bombing GRP 2003 leadership and several other bombings, the GRP puts out arrest warrants against the MILF leaders, branding the organization as criminal/terrorist instead of a legitimate political organization

June 2003 MILF rejects terrorism Hashim Salamat makes a statement MILF that the MILF rejects terrorism July 2003 Hashim dies Hashim Salamat dies and is MILF succeeded by Al Haj Murad Ibrahim July 2003 Ceasefire A general ceasefire between the GRP, MILF GRP and MILF is agreed to in Kuala Lumpur February Superferry 14 bombing A ferry on its way from Manila to ASG, RSM, JI 2004 Cagayan de Oro is bombed, killing 116 February Inclusion CPP/NPA/NDF in Due to listing the CPP/NPA/NDF as USA, 2004 US foreign terrorist an FTO, the peace process with the CPP/NPA/NDF

organizations list communist movement broke down March Malaysian advance team A group of Malaysian observers for Malaysia 2004 arrives the IMT arrives

October Formation IMT Malaysia, Brunei and Libya formed Malaysia, Brunei, 2004 the International Monitoring Team, Libya, OIC which was tasked with overseeing the ceasefire February Hostilities Sulu MNLF and AFP clash on Sulu MNLF, GRP 2005 because of continuing human rights violations by AFP troops February Valentine Day’s bombings Three bombs explode in different ASG, RSM, JI 2005 cities (Manila, General Santos and Davao City), killing 8 and wounding 150 May 2005 MILF Mindanao people Four million people give MILF MILF, population consultation mandate to negotiate a deal with the GRP July 2005 Negotiations on ancestral Negotiations on the third track of GRP, MILF domain start the Tripoli Agreement, ancestral domain, start.

2.3.2. Context

International

Until January 2001, the peace process was an affair of domestic actors, such as the GRP, MILF and some NGOs (Notre Dame University, Maguindanaon Professionals and Employees Association). When Arroyo entered office, she took a multilateral approach, involving the OIC and Malaysia straight away. Whereas in the period after the FPA in 1996, the conflict between the GRP and MILF was mostly viewed as an internal matter, to be resolved within the boundaries of the Constitution, the all-out war changed this (Quilala, 2007). The OIC, Malaysia, Libya and Brunei Darussalam started to feel they should facilitate peace. The devastating effects of the war, with almost one million people being internally displaced (OPAPP, 2016), were clear for all to see. This activated these parties

62 to take a more facilitative role. The OIC for example, at the 27th Islamic Conference of Foreign Ministers (ICFM), expressed its concern for the military hostilities and urged the GRP and MILF to seek for peace (Quilala, 2007). However, the OIC could not do more because the OIC did not recognize the MILF as the legitimate representative of the Moro people. Instead, Malaysia stepped in as a mediator (Quilala, 2007). The GRP objected to such a role, as Malaysia was seen as biased towards the Moros, but its third-party role was nevertheless accepted. The GRP accepted all demands made by the MILF, being

1) Withdrawal from MILF camps,

2) Involvement of the OIC or OIC members in the peace process,

3) Negotiations should be held on foreign neutral soil, and

4) The GRP should honor all previous agreements signed with the MILF (Quilala, 2007).

Parties rather choose a partial-insider mediator, than an impartial-outsider (section 1.3.4.4). This was also true for the GRP. The only insiders that are at close distance are Malaysia and Indonesia. With Indonesia too closely linked to the MNLF-GRP peace process, Malaysia was the logical choice. Soon after this, the parties agreed to resume the peace process in Kuala Lumpur. Libya also played a facilitative role and was more acceptable for the GRP because it did not play a prominent role in financing the conflict anymore (Abuza, 2003). Building upon the sign of trust created in Kuala Lumpur, the parties agreed on the specific tracks for the peace process in Tripoli: security, rehabilitation and ancestral domain (Quilala, 2007). These tracks will be discussed more extensively under the state and group sections.

Just after the Tripoli agreement was made in the summer of 2001, the international context changed tremendously. The terrorist attacks on 11 September 2001 on the United States was an event that changed the world everywhere and this was also true for the Philippines. The Philippines were probably one the areas in the world where the effects of 9/11 were felt most profoundly. With a history of terrorist attacks in a conflict which could easily be perceived as divided along religious lines, it would become an important theatre for the war on terror. As the Americans launched their attacks on Afghanistan, the situation in Mindanao was also watched closely. With hostage takings and bombings still numerous, the region drew the attention of the US. It was thought that some of the planning and training for 9/11 was done in the Philippines and that Mindanao was a ‘safe haven’ for terrorists (more under group). President Bush increased pressure on states. The National Security Strategy (2002) called for: “And America will hold the white house Washington to account nations that are compromised by terror, including those who harbor terrorists— because the allies of terror

63 are the enemies of civilization. The United States and countries cooperating with us must not allow the terrorists to develop new home bases. Together, we will seek to deny them sanctuary at every turn“. This was solidified by strong United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions such as S/RES/1373 and S/RES/1377. Due to strong bilateral ties and the presence of jihadi networks on its soil, the Philippines was quickly drawn into the global war on terror (Quilala, 2007; Cruz de Castro, 2010; Buendia, 2004).

National

When Arroyo entered the presidential office, the economy of the Philippines was recovering, in spite of a still relatively low growth of just over 2 % (Philippine National Statistical Coordination Board). This was mainly due to the influx of remittances from the USA and other parts of the world. Another development was that due to increasing global competition, a trend of business outsourcing had developed. Both back-office business processes, such as accounting, financial services and human resources, and front-office processes, such as customer related services, were more and more outsourced to low wage countries. A country like the Philippines, with a highly competitive labor force, could profit from this development. During this phase, the growth of the world economy continued and the Philippines grew steadily, although a little slower than its South East Asian neighbors, steadily16.

Despite economic growth, the country was worried by continuing violence from two sides. First, the communist movement had gained back its momentum during the Asian Crisis and was becoming a real threat again. After the US had branded the CPP/NPA as a terrorist organization, its leader Joseph Maria Sison called for all-out resistance. Arroyo readily accepted the FTO listing of the CPP/NPA and declared war on the communists. This phase is characterized by continuous conflict between the GRP and the CPP/NPA. Because of its presence on the Island of Luzon, and its possession of heavy arms, the communists were seen as an existential threat. This is part of geopolitics, influenced by ideas of containment to certain geographical areas, is important for the GRP military strategy. Contrary to the Moro rebellion on Mindanao, the communists were harder to contain (ICG, 2008b); (Woon, 2014)). The GRP only managed to attain a ceasefire and peace agreement with the RPM-P (in 2005), and therefore had to fight the large majority of the communist movement.

Second, the amount and severity of terrorist attacks was increasing. The Superferry bombing (2004) and the Valentine Days’s Bombings (2005) were especially bloody (ICG, 2005). Hostage takings such as Dos Palmas in Palawan and the kidnapping of Indonesian and Malaysian nationals to Jolo

16 Source: World Bank. 64

Island received much attention. The bombings reached their peak in this phase, with serious disruptions of city life in Mindanao and the Manila metropole. It forced the GRP to launch an offensive campaign, with help of the US, against the ASG and Rajah Solaiman Movement (RSM) (ICG, 2008). RSM was a smaller organization which operated in Manila. According to one its captured members, its main task was to keep the AFP busy in Manila (ICG, 2008a). For these reasons, the inclusion of the MILF on the list of terrorist groups was a matter of constant debate (see state).

Finally, there was an important development in the MNLF. The MNLF had gotten divided because of the unilateral implementation of the ARMM by an organic act in March 2001. Misuari rejected the organic act but his authority was waning. In April 2001 the breakaway faction under the leadership of the Council of 15 was created. When Misuari supporters violently rebelled against the plebiscites and subsequent elections for the newly created ARMM, Misuari had to flee Malaysia. There he was arrested and later extradited to the Philippines. He was sentenced to prison time for rebellion against the state. Consequently, the MNLF was split in two, a more moderate faction under the leadership of the Council of 15, and a somewhat more radical faction of remaining Misuari loyalists.

Figure 3: Per Capita Poverty Threshold and Poverty Incidence among Families 2006, 2009, and 2012. NCR: National Capital Region (Manila). ARMM: Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao.

Local

On a local level, three developments are important. First, underdevelopment and poverty continued. In some areas 30-40 % of the population lives under the poverty line (see figure 4). The contrast between the ARMM and Manila is 40,5 % vs 2,9 % (National Statistical Coordination Board). For groups like ASG, this provided an excellent area of operations. By distributing food and money, it gained popular support, at least passively, among parts of the population (Ressa, 2003). Efforts by the GRP, US and MILF run Bangsamoro Development Agency only helped to soften the blows of conflict. They did not structurally improve the situation and address this grievance (Santos, 2005).

Second, grievances were worsened by the large number of internally displaced persons. When refugees return to their lands, they might find it either in ruins or appropriated by someone else. Because of the honor codes like maratabat17, the disownment of land meant a serious offence which should be settled. Consequently, inter-clan conflicts (rido) remained an issue that kept dividing the Moros (Torres, 2007).

Third, the war on terror was also felt locally. Due to bombings and hostage takings and retaliatory violent counter-terrorism operations, animosity between Muslims and Christians grew. Discrimination of Muslims by the Christian majority worsened. This was also caused by negative framing by the media. Chen Yuan Woon (2014) studied the role of framing by the Philippine media of the Mindanao conflict. More specifically, he has focused upon the way audiences shape, re-make or re-produce these frames. In the case of Mindanao, Woon’s analysis of the most widely read newspaper, the Philippine Daily Inquirer (PDI), gave a clear idea of how the PDI reported on Mindanao. Mindanao was displayed as another world, full of lawless conflict and chaos. Fortunately, this was contained to the island by government military action. Reports focused heavily on the violence in Mindanao, often accompanied by images of dead bodies signifying the severe brutality of the conflict. The religious divide was emphasized, strongly framing the conflict as a religious conflict or ‘clash of civilizations’. The Christians were depicted as good and peace-loving, while the Muslims were evil and antagonistic. The concept of security is portrayed one-sidedly, writing of the AFP and PNP as ‘providers’ and the Mindanao people as ‘receivers’. Local practices for conflict resolution are completely overlooked. Woon concludes that despite the power of people to process the reports in different ways and making an individual assessment, the mainstream Philippine media have exacerbated the conflict (Chen Yuan Woon, 2014).

2.3.3. State

In the political sphere, Arroyo faced unrest from the beginning. Besides upcoming legislative and local elections in May, she was confronted with rebellion among angry Estrada-supporters. The impeachment and corruption charges were by Estrada-supporters seen as a coup d’état under false pretenses. In May, Arroyo had to call for a state of rebellion to suppress the storming of the presidential residence Malacanang (May 1, 2001). Shortly after this, elections were held for Congress and the lower level governance bodies, such as municipal and city councils, mayors and vice-mayors or barangay (neighborhood council) members. Possibly due to the violent overreaction of Estrada supporters, Arroyo’s people power coalition performed well in the election, winning 8 out of 12 senators and a large majority in the House of Representatives. This meant that she had gained a strong mandate to conduct further peace negotiations with the MILF and other groups. In June that year, the GRP and MILF moved forward with the peace process by outlining the major tracks for peace in the Tripoli Agreement: security, rehabilitation and ancestral domain (Quilala, 2007). For security, in order to create trust and monitor troops on the ground effectively, it was deemed necessary to create independent monitoring teams, composed of foreign nationals. As for rehabilitation, the parties agreed that the MILF-run Bangsamoro Development Agency will lead these efforts in MILF controlled areas (Quilala, 2007). For the MILF, this was a big step forwards, as it would get more legitimacy and standing (Taya, 2007). On ancestral domain, the parties merely acknowledged the need to identify such a geographical area (Quilala, 2007).

At the same time, the Arroyo administration had to deal with an exhausted AFP and PNP after the all-out war and the growing support for insurgency movements in Mindanao. Arroyo ordered the creation of a Coordinative and Integrative System of Internal Security. A National Internal Security Plan (NISP) was drafted, which called for a holistic approach. The strategy enabled the entire government machinery to make concerted and coordinated efforts to eliminate roots causes and take out insurgents effectively. Arroyo called for a military, diplomatic, cultural and economic path (Ressa, 2003). Within this framework, the AFP formulated its own policy of ‘focus and contain’. It stressed that limited resources should be used on focus points for maximum impact (Cruz de Castro, 2010). One might link the Buliok offensive to this policy, where the AFP tried to force a breakthrough into one major MILF stronghold. The strategy further specified a tactics for counter- insurgency, drawing from successful operations against the Communists from 1989-1995. An approach of Clear-Hold-Consolidate-Develop was implemented along three phases:

- Military defeat of armed rebels and the dismantling of critical institutions/structures support them

- Strengthening of territorial gains to create momentum and keep the initiative - Create the conditions for other government agencies to operate safely (Cruz de Castro, 2010)

In order to implement such a strategy, the GRP could use external help. After 9/11, Arroyo quickly pledged her allegiance to the war on terror. For the Americans, the Philippines and Southeast Asia was an important region to fight international terrorists. After Arroyo granted US forces access to Philippine air space in late 2001, help was on its way (Cruz de Castro, 2010). Short on all kinds of material, the US supplied helicopters, weapons, aircraft and training. Also, it supplied 600 men of Special Forces for operations on Basilan against ASG (Cruz de Castro, 2010). Operation Balikatan, which lasted from January till July 2002, was a clear signal to all insurgency/terrorist groups of the determination of the GRP/US coalition. It was also well-timed because terrorist groups had regrouped after the all-out war. Whereas 2001 was relatively peaceful compared to the previous year of destructive war, 2002 was characterized by a steady rise of bomb attacks (ICG, 2004). Whether the bomb attacks were triggered by US presence on Philippine soil remains unclear. However, the frequent bombings worked as a clear pressuring tool on the peace process (Quilala, 2007).

From an MILF perspective, the bomb attacks might have been part of a strategy to increase the need for a peace deal. From the GRP perspective, because of continuous suspicion of MILF elements aiding and sheltering terrorists, its peace stance toward the MILF became more vulnerable. At the same time, a US threat to put the MILF on its list of foreign terrorist organizations (FTO) loomed over the peace process. However, the GRP wanted to separate its struggle with the MILF from the global war on terror (ICG, 2004). The GRP successfully lobbied against FTO listing, but as the indiscriminate violence started to grow, this was exceedingly difficult (ICG, 2004). It knew from experience with the CPP/NPA that listing the MILF among as an FTO would mean a breakdown of the peace process. Therefore, it was needed to establish some sort of coordination mechanism to signal a clear MILF commitment that the group is on the side of the international community against terrorism. Having agreed on implementation guidelines for security (August 2001) and rehabilitation (May 2002) earlier, the peace panels made a significant step in this regard. They agreed to create a mechanism to cooperate on fighting criminal syndicates. The agreement enabled the creation of an Ad Hoc Joint Working Group to coordinate such efforts (ICG, 2004). For the moment though, the agreement was more symbolic than of true value, since it was not operationalized. Sporadic clashes endured while the peace process started to come to a halt (ICG, 2004). For both the MILF and the GRP, negotiations at this point were used for military build-up. Santos (2005) concludes that Arroyo’s government was mostly concerned with two tracks: pacification and demobilization, and military victory. Based on the

68 logic of the NISP and the fact that negotiations stopped after agreeing on provisions concerning security and development (part of the NISP), this is justified conclusion.

In February 2003, the government launched the Buliok offensive. On the same day, a proposal concerning the peace process was made. This caused serious doubt on the side of the MILF whether the GRP was sincere in its quest for peace (ICG, 2004). Taya (2007) claims the Buliok offensive was thoughtfully orchestrated because of the state visit of President Bush that same month. Contrary to the report of ICG, Taya (2007) states that the GRP did lobby to get the MILF listed as an FTO. According to Taya, the Buliok offensive was planned to convince President Bush to list the MILF as a FTO during his visit (Taya, 2007). The exact reason for the Buliok offensive remains unclear, but whether it was to convince the Americans or because of a deadlock in the peace process, it caused the immediate shattering of any trust which existed between the parties. The Buliok offensive may have also been launched because of new intelligence that certain camps were re-used by foreign jihadi contingents (Ressa, 2003). Following a series of battles and a surge in terrorist attacks, a ceasefire was struck in July 2003. For the GRP, some gains were accomplished. The MILF stronghold was eventually overrun and delivered significant evidence of the MILF terrorist connections (Ressa, 2003). The offensive triggered a sequence of bombings. It caused a serious disruption of the peace process which would yet gain track in 2005. I will return on this disruption at the end of this section.

Something that might have been more effective than the Buliok offensive was the arrest warrant against the MILF leadership which was issued after the Davao bombing in April 2003. Effectively, this turned MILF leaders from legitimate political figures into criminals (ICG, 2004). After an appeal by Arroyo to stop aiding terrorists and the looming threat of being listed as terrorists by the US, Hashim Salamat, the MILF leader, pleaded: “it has always, and will continue to reject terrorism (22 June 2003).” The GRP could use this declaration as a sign that it could trust the MILF. After this, the number of clashes decreased significantly. Similarly, the number of bomb attacks decreased. The latter could be explained in four ways:

- The killings/capture of several leading jihadi fighters paid off, for example JI-leaders on Mindanao Zulkifli (capture), Fathur Rohman Al-Ghozi (killed) and Taufiq Rifqi (capture) - After the rejection of terrorism and the ceasefire, the MILF curtailed further attacks - Internal dissension in the MILF after the death of Hashim turned attention inwards - Terrorist tactic: lay low for a while to ensure success of the next big attack.

The supposed détente in terrorist attacks would not last. In February 2004, the deadliest attack in Southeast Asia since the Bali bombing18 took place. A ferry was bombed killing 116 people. In December that year, a bomb in a market in General Santos killed 16. Finally, in February 2005, the Valentine’s Day bombings in three different locations killed 8 people. For the GRP, it was hard to make any progress with the peace process. Getting an easy peace would not last and lack any legitimacy if the MILF was continuously associated with terrorism. Similarly, the Buliok offensive showed that going to war was not bringing the group to its knees. For the GRP, it was absolutely critical to separate the MILF from terrorist groups. Mixing of the two presented the worst situation (ICG, 2004). A good step was made in December 2004, when the AHJAG19 mechanism became formally established an. AHJAG would serve as a coordination mechanism between the AFP and BIAF commands to address “lawless elements in Mindanao”. The mechanism would be made operational at the next meeting of the CCCH in January 2005 (ICG, 2008b). From then on, the GRP also committed to a major offensive on the island of Jolo against the ASG in February 2005. Regrettably though, this drew the fighters into the fray at the side of the ASG. It proved to be a tactical error that the GRP did not have a coordination mechanism with the MNLF. From July 2005, the first joint counter-terrorist operations on mainland Mindanao would be held (ICG, 2008b). These will be discussed in the next phase.

In conclusion, it is clear that for the state there were several major problems that halted the peace process in 2003. One is the degree of legitimacy a peace process would have if the MILF has continuing terrorist links, even after the public rejection of terrorism by its leader Hashim in 2003. Another is the military build-up that was taken place during negotiations. A third is the change of leadership in the MILF. With whom were they dealing and can this person enforce a possible agreement? Within the state itself, it is possible that the government was too preoccupied with the May 2004 elections, in which Arroyo successfully defeated Fernando Poe. A change of leadership in Manila could have caused another approach to the peace process, especially because it was always so vividly politicized (Buendia, 2004). Finally, the government might have purposely waited to see if an internal power struggle within the MILF would evolve after the death of Hashim. A break-up like what happened with the MNLF, would have certainly strengthened the GRP position. In the end, Murad Ebrahim proved capable of unifying the MILF and giving diplomacy a new impetus. We now turn to this story.

18 On 12 October 2002, a tourist district on Bali was bombed, killing 202 people. 19 Ad Hoc Joint Action Group 70

2.3.4. Group

For the MILF, the all-out peace policy declared by Arroyo came at a good time. Dispersed and hard-pressed by the offensives under President Estrada, the group needed to reorganize. The six large divisions were split into smaller fighting groups, with more autonomy. However, communication got harder and the command structure less cohesive (Taya, 2007). The camps were better secured or rebuilt in more remote and better protected places. However, the MILF basic model of a shadow government besides the GRP in its controlled areas would be continued. According to Taya, this is where their main strength came from (Taya, 2007). The support of the local population enabled the MILF to fight better, negotiate with more power and become more self- reliant (Taya, 2007). Eventually, the MILF moved back into some of the camps and fortified them in 2004 (ICG, 2005). Although the grassroots strategy was still firmly in place, it could better be executed from strong camps which facilitated parallel governance and civil engagement.

This phase sparks a slight change in the MILF strategy. When Estrada declared all-out war, he also did something else. He declared all previously made agreements with the MILF invalid. In this regard, it really was all-or-nothing for Estrada, because he literally destroyed years of diplomatic work. The MILF concluded that if there was no third party witness, the GRP could go back on its promises too easily. The MILF needed international protection and would more actively engage the international community for it (Taya, 2007). This was essential for its diplomatic struggle, which was based on small but irreversible steps of recognition of the Moro’s legitimate rights. When Arroyo agreed to the four terms made by the MILF, this was considered an important strategic victory. Besides agreeing to a third party and the legitimacy and validity of all previous agreements, the talks would be held in a neutral, foreign venue (Taya, 2007). According to Taya, this served another purpose for the MILF. To gain more protection, it needed a platform to express its ideas. Because the Philippine media had short ties with Manila, the MILF felt its views were not accurately or sufficiently represented. An international stage, for example in Malaysia or Libya, would serve this goal perfectly (Taya, 2007).

Under fourth term, the AFP would retreat from all MILF camps. This meant that the first political strategy, grass-roots organizational build-up, could be continued more easily, with the existing camps already being center stages for this structure.

Two elements in this phase deserve more elaboration: the MILF role in terrorism and its leadership change in 2003.

Since the war on terror had started, several ASG- and MILF members had returned to the Philippines. Estimations are that at least 20 ASG members had returned and 10 MILF members (Hegghammer, 2010). Clearly, a continuous flow of exchange within the global network was still ongoing. Even after the signing of all-out peace by the Arroyo administration, this did not change. The GRP simply denied the existence of Al-Qaeda in the Philippines and concentrated on the ASG, which was framed as a domestic kill-for-ransom group (Ressa, 2003). While the GRP formulated a staunch policy against the ASG of ‘no ransom’, which was undermined and unsuccessful, the government still treated the MILF as a domestic insurgency (Ressa, 2003) The terrorist threat was either downplayed for political reasons, or the intelligence services were unable to connect the dots, for example because they had no central data base. It allowed the MILF to continue and strengthen its ties within the Jihadi network. Some of its camps were used again, military build-up continued and some horrific attacks were conducted and planned. The Bali bombing in 2002, an attempt to truck- bomb a US embassy in Singapore in 2001, a bombing in General Santos in 2002, the Davao city airport bombing and the wharf bombing, the ferry bombing in 2004 and the Valentine’s Day bombings in 2005. All came from the same network as described in section 2.3.4 (Ressa, 2003).

However, as already explained in the state section, the MILF came under increasing pressure to cut off its terrorist ties. With a listing on the United States FTO list, used as an important reference for many other FTO lists, its members would be turned into criminals and terrorists instantly. For the MILF, it became an increasingly difficult situation. Betray their comrades and Islamic brothers, which would damage their reputation among jihadi groups around the world and negatively affect their fighting capability and financial funding, or avoid becoming a prime target of the international community. Although Hashim already publicly declared a rejection of terrorism shortly before he died (July 2003), it was Murad Ebrahim who actually cut some important ties.

In the wake of Hashim’s death, there was dissension among the Moros on who should succeed him. Would it be Mimbantas, until then head of Internal Affairs and in command of the Internal Security Forces, or Murad, head of Military Affairs and famed for his leadership of a local divison. Mimbantas was favored by his clan, the Maranaos, while Murad represented the Manguindanaos. Fortunately for the MILF, the odds were not even. The Manguindanaos outnumbered the Maranaos 4 to 1. This was important for solving the situation peacefully (Taya, 2007). Murad offered Mimbantas his old post, while creating a new post as chief of the BIAF (which was previously a responsibility of the Vice-chair for Military Affairs) to limit Mimbantas’ power. He took control of the Internal Security Forces himself (Taya, 2007). While this was ongoing, the MILF kept Hashim’s death silent from the outside world until it had elected a new leader (Ressa, 2003). In this way, it never showed any weakness.

Under state, the gap in peace negotiations in the period beginning 2003-beginning 2005 was made clear. From the MILF perspective, this had several reasons. The group was keen on getting more international protection before entering into new agreements. The MILF lobbied intensively for the International Monitoring Team (IMT) and advance Malaysian Team, which were made operational in 2004. Local monitoring teams (LMTs) were also installed then. Secondly, there was the issue of recognition of MILF camps. This was a continuously contested issue between the GRP and the MILF. In this case, the parties kept on discussing what was to happen with the Buliok complex. The GRP found clear evidence of terrorist training and plotting when it captured Hashim’s headquarters (Ressa, 2003). By giving the camp back, it feared that it would be used for similar ends once again. For the MILF, the recognition of the camp was central to their plan of gradual legitimization. If these swaths of land could be made exclusively MILF-controlled and governed, it would serve as an example for the new Bangsamoro homeland (Mckenna, 1998). The break-through came when Murad agreed to joint operations under AHJAG. From July onwards, the MILF expelled many foreign jihadi fighters by cooperating with the government, giving intelligence and by facilitating special operations (ICG, 2008a). To signify the shift, even on the top branch of terrorists, the MILF cooperated under AHJAG. For example with Khaddafy Janjalani, when Murad personally called him to say he should leave within three days (ICG, 2008a). This created the momentum to proceed with the peace process, turning to track three of the Tripoli agreement in 2001, ancestral domain.

2.3.5. Main observations

The period 2001-2005 is characterized by several crucial events and changing dynamics. The context, comprising of a more active international involvement, determined much of this. On the one side, the continued expansion of the global jihadi network, in which the MILF played an important role as facilitator of training, fighters and a safe haven to plot terrorist attacks. On the other, the involvement of the US after the 9/11 attacks who expanded their operations against Al-Qaeda to form a second front in the Philippines. Arroyo’s policies are coordinated in such a way that her administration would get US support. The MILF did the same in order to maintain its links of funding, training and intelligence within the larger jihadi network. However, both parties did not comply completely with the war campaigns of their peers, because it did not really fit within their strategies. The MILF, having lost many of its camps in the all-out war against Estrada, prefers to walk both the diplomatic path and the military path. The camps are crucial for this and cannot be lost in military

73 conflict. While talking peace, the MILF can fortify the camps. This is different from groups like JI, who have a much more destructive agenda. The GRP in turn, lobbied against an FTO listing of the MILF to continue peace. While presenting itself as a reliable partner in the war on terror, its strategy was not to fight the MILF. The communists were considered a bigger danger and either the GRP could live with occasional terrorist attacks linked to the MILF, or it was not completely aware of such links for much of 2001 and 2002. However, a change came for both parties.

The GRP was anxious to label the MILF a terrorist group and enter into military operations in Mindanao against it because its armed forces were running thin. Also, there was a clear understanding that to end a protracted social conflict like this, the four root causes must be addressed. Arroyo talks of a military, diplomatic, cultural and economic path. The change came when either evidence of terrorist activity was just too important to ignore, or because talking peace had served its purpose. The Buliok offensive exerted more pressure on the MILF and drew in more US support. Also, by issuing arrest warrants against the MILF leadership, a serious signal was given to everyone that the MILF was no better than other terrorist groups. For the MILF, recognition of its legitimate cause and good governance in its areas of control was paramount. With this move, the GRP pressured the MILF to choose. Either it could choose diplomacy as a legitimate party, or it would be placed in the same category as JI and ASG. For the MILF ambitions and its popular support, the source of its power, this was a price too costly to pay. While putting its cooperation with the jihadi network on halt for a while, it sought the international protection and guarantees it needed for walking the diplomatic path. Then, it cooperated with the GRP using the AHJAG mechanism. This triggered confidence-building and increased the MILF’s credibility and legitimacy.

We can relate the GRP’s move to keep the MILF from the FTO list as an understanding of protracted social conflict, and addressing the root causes. However, this could also be seen as a negotiation strategy, keeping pressure on the MILF by using the FTO listing as something to bargain with. The jihadi network had a positive effect on the MILF military capabilities, but worked as a spoiler in the diplomatic track. In the end, for its long-term strategy, spoiling this diplomatic track became too large a problem for the MILF. Its strategy relied on addressing the grievances of the local population, not merely fighting a jihad. This could best be done by a diplomatic route. Enabling US funding to Mindanao and setting up a strong Bangsamoro Development Agency were important developments for this. In sum, due to significant pressure to make a choice, the MILF shifted, at least officially, from an insurgency with terrorist tactics, to one with insurgency tactics.

2.4. Negotiations center around the topic of ancestral domain (2005-2010)

2.4.1. Timeline of events

Date Event Description Actor(s) July 2005 Negotiations Ancestral Negotiations on Ancestral Domain start GRP, MILF domain take off July- Operation Tornado First joint operation under AHJAG to expel GRP, MILF, October ASG and foreign Jihadi fighters from US 2005 mainland Mindanao, 8 ASG/JI killed August Elections ARMM Elections for the ARMM are rigged with Ampatuan 2005 fraud, voter intimidation and violence. Zaldy clan Ampatuan is elected governor. October RSM leader Ahmad RSM has been involved in major bombings in RSM, GRP 2005 Santos arrested Manila. Arrest of its leader a clear success February Arroyo declares state In response to rallies and a plot for a military GRP, 2006 of national emergency coup (in alliance with communists) Arroyo dissident arrests leaders and takes control of military important institutions commanders, population February 29 consensus points A breakthrough in the negotiations, parties GRP, MILF 2006 agreed to 29 consensus points on ancestral domain February Balikatan exercises US and AFP troops do joint exercises and GRP, US 2006 work on development programs, for example on Jolo Island. March Eleventh round of Because of increasing pressure of GRP, MILF 2006 talks, stalemate on conservatives and the attempted coup a ancestral domain month before, Arroyo needed to realign them by ensuring constitutional approval and plebiscites. This was not accepted by the MILF May 2006 OIC fact finding Review status of the implementation of the OIC

mission FPA August Military operation : AFP and US special forces began an offensive GRP, US 2006 Oplan Ultimatum on Sulu against ASG contingent of 500 and targeting leaders such as Dulmatin and Umar Patek August Gentlemen’s Learning from its mistakes in early 2005, the MNLF, GRP 2006 agreement with the GRP made an agreement to reaffirm the FPA MNLF and install an ad hoc coordinating group October Three bombings Bombings in three places, killing six. Zulkifli JI, MILF 2006 across Mindanao bin Hir (Marwan) and Abdul Usman (MILF commander) involved January Bombings Bombings in General Santos, Cotabato City Allegedly 2007 and Kidapawan, killing six. same group January Killing ASG leaders Khaddafy Janjalani and his successor Abu GRP 2007 Sulaiman are killed February Confinement General Tensions between the MNLF and AFP rose. GRP, MNLF 2007 Dolorfino After several incidents involving AFP troops shooting innocent civilians and the postponement of the tripartite meeting, Dolorfino and his men were confined in Commander Malik’s camp April 2007 Break-up of the MNLF men under command of Ajibun were GRP, MNLF, gentlemen’s drawn into a fight where the AFP pursued ASG agreement the ASG. Subsequently, Malik attacked other AFP troops. May 2007 Mid-term elections Important for Arroyo to avoid impeachment GRP by the conservatives. After election the cabinet was reshuffled to meet increased conservative power. Within the cabinet, opposition to a peace deal grew, chief negotiator Afable resigned. Ampatuan Sr. re- elected as governor of Maguindanao. May 2007 Heavy fighting and The seizure of the MNLF bases after heavy GRP, MNLF seizure of MNLF bases fighting. Effective dispersion of MNLF troops

on Jolo and loss of goodwill with the population June 2007 Expiring of AHJAG AHJAG expired and was not renewed GRP, MILF

July 2007 Battle of Guinanta AFP and MILF forces clash on the Island of GRP, MILF Basilan, near the village of Guinanta, 14 marines get killed, 30 MILF fighters die July 2007 Al-Barka Incident Because the AHJAG mechanism was not GRP, MILF extended, 10 marines entered MILF-held territory, were captured and beheaded. July 2007 Human Security Act Main counter-terrorism legislation enacted. GRP becomes law The law gives powers to government to arrests suspects without warrants and detain them for 72 hours September USAID grant of $ 190 As part of its socio-economic strategy, the US 2007 million US directed a large sum to develop businesses in Mindanao November Tripartite Review The GRP, MNLF and OIC meet for the first GRP, MNLF, 2007 meets for the first time to discuss the implementation of the OIC time FPA November Failed coup attempt Military rebels call for people power AFP 2007 military rebels revolution and withdrawal of military dissidents support for Arroyo February Ipil village, Maimbung Seven civilians and one soldier die because GRP, MILF 2008 Incident of miscommunication on the Island of Jolo. March MILF Congress Consulting the population on the MOA-AD, MILF 2008 obtaining a mandate

May 2008 Creation Bangsamoro This institute was created to train future GRP, MILF Leadership and governors and bureaucrats for the new Management Institute Bangsamoro Juridical Entitiy (BJE) (BLMI) July- Three MILF Three commanders (Kato, Bravo and MILF August commanders go rogue Pangalian) go rogue and engage in violent 2008 in opposition to the attacks on Christian villages

MOA-AD August Suspension order The Supreme Court orders the suspension of Supreme 2008 Supreme Court the MOA-AD after a complaint was filed by Court Christian farmers on Mindanao October Supreme Court The MOA-AD is declared “contrary to law Supreme 2008 declares the MOA-AD and the Constitution” by the Supreme Court, Court unconstitutional effectively killing it November Expiring of AHJAG AHJAG expires again and is not extended GRP, MILF 2008

November IMT leaves Mindanao IMT members resign because they cannot IMT 2008 enter the areas which they are supposed to monitor. July 2009 Stop military The GRP decides to stop its operations to GRP operations in give the diplomatic track a chance again Mindanao August Basilan war In confrontations between the MILF and GRP, MILF, 2009 GRP, who was in pursuit of the ASG, 44 were ASG killed. September International Contact International Contact Group created, GRP, MILF 2009 Group consisted of UK, Japan, Turkey and three NGOs. November Massacre in 58 people are killed in a move by the Ampatuan 2009 Maguindanao Ampatuan clan to get rid of their rivals, the clan Mangudadatu. Half of the victims were journalists December Arroyo imposes In response to the chaos and violence after GRP 5-12 2009 martial law on the massacre, and because the police had Maguindanao been bought by the Ampatuan clan, the province army was sent in with more powers to arrest and detain. April 2010 Peace talks Kuala Last effort of Arroyo to get an interim- GRP, MILF Lumpur agreement with the MILF, parties could only agree on return of IDPs and the removal of

landmines

2.4.2. Context

International

In the period August 2005 until June 2010, some important events happened in the world that affected the Philippines. First, the war on terror was still ongoing and more and more nations joined the fight in Afghanistan. Although it never loomed over the Philippine conflict, which was still seen as ‘domestic’ by the majority of states, it did provide a useful insight to the MILF: once a conflict becomes part of the war on terror, you could find yourself opposed by many states. Secondly, there was the world financial and economic crisis in late 2008. Because of continuing globalization and closer integration of the Philippines into the world economy, this affected the Philippines in several ways: economic slowdown and a cutback on foreign investment and development aid.

When we look at the international actors that were active, in the peace process, a clear upward trend is noticeable. With the involvement of the IMT, international attention was gained more easily. Several new countries offered their services, such as Japan and Norway. Within the IMT, Malaysia, Brunei and Libya remained responsible for the security aspect, whereas Japan monitored the socio-economic part (Mastura, 2015). Also with the break-down of negotiations at the end of 2008, a new group was founded as a confidence-building measure for new negotiations. The international contact group, created in September 2009, consisted of the UK, Japan, Turkey and Saudi Arabia (Mastura, 2015). According to Mastura, the international contact group was unique in international diplomacy. First, it was not sanctioned by the United Nations Security Council. Second, it created a fair amount of leverage because of the involvement of so many regional players with relevant experiences (Mastura, 2015). For example, the UK had made the Good Friday Agreement with the IRA (Jones & Libicki, 2008). This also widened the geographical scope considerably, creating a voice for the MILF in parts of the world where it was not yet heard. Another development was that the OIC got more involved with the Moro cause again. Its frustration on the peace process with the MNLF was clearly signaled in the ICTM. With a fact-finding mission to investigate the implementation of the FPA, it started to exert more pressure on reviving this peace process. Under the guidance of the Tripartite Review Commission, this was slowly revived in phase 3. One member of the International Contact Group got especially more influential in this phase.

Japan entered the scene in 2006, when it joined the IMT, and since then grew more influential. For Japan, Mindanao presented an excellent opportunity to diversify its foreign policy agenda and act more independently from the US (Peng, 2008). Japan was an acceptable candidate to both the MILF and the GRP. For the MILF, it was essential that the US was kept out of the negotiations. The MILF also understood that it needed a strong aid donor to implement any agreement it made. Because Japan was the largest aid donor to the Philippines, Japan certainly qualified in this respect. Also, Japan, in contrast to the US, did not pose a military threat to the MILF (Peng, 2008). The GRP was open to a Japanese role because it is an important economic partner, and a non-Muslim country (Peng, 2008). Japan played an important role because of two reasons. Japan made significant contributions to development by investing in education and infrastructure. Besides this, it was accepted by both parties as unbiased and neutral which enabled it to play a role in bringing the parties back to the negotiation table after the breakdown of the MOA-AD (Yildiz, 2014).

National

On the national stage, Arroyo’s grip on power continued to be a balancing act. With dissension among her military, and almost no support from the poor class, the threat of a coup was looming over her presidency. However, Thomson writes that Arroyo, in contrast to Estrada, managed to sufficiently secure extra-electoral interests to maintain her grip on power (Thomson, 2014). Basically, the EDSA People Power Revolution shaped a dangerous precedent where with enough support from the population, a democratically elected president could be deposed. For Arroyo became extra dangerous after a corruption scandal related to the 2004 elections was uncovered. Similarly, Arroyo could not fulfill some of her promises. For example, the fight with the communists kept dragging on, and the peace negotiations with the MILF collapsed. In the fight against the communists, Arroyo declared several timelines on when they should be defeated. However, at the end of her presidency, despite being reduced to lesser numbers, the communist insurgency was still very much alive. The role of the Supreme Court is important in this phase. By suspending the MOA- AD, the Court undermined years of hard work in a single stroke20. According to Michael Mastura, the Court failed to take into account the issue of global justice and what the political situation of the day seemed to require (Mastura, 2015). According to my own judgment, the Court’s decision was to be expected. In the state section, an extensive elaboration of the MOA-AD and the Court’s decision is given.

20 A more elaborate description is provided in section 2.5.3. 80

Within the peace process, the links between the conflict actors and NGOs have increased (Mastura, 2015). These organizations have been helpful in facilitating talks and corroborating any claims made by the parties in the talks.

Because of AHJAG and continuing US support, the fight against ASG and foreign jihadi fighters paid off. Important leaders were captured or killed, and the movement was contained in the Sulu archipelago. Its numbers decreased to about 400-500 (ICG, 2008a). What became increasingly difficult though is the mixing of ASG and MNLF soldiers. In the Sulu archipelago, MNLF support is high, mainly because Nur Misuari is an ethnic Tausug and comes from Jolo Island. Because there no AHJAG mechanism was agreed with the MNLF and its organizational structure is fragmented into many factions, this was a difficult terrain for the GRP to operate. This became worse because the MNLF never disarmed. Because of the MNLF ambiguous status, misunderstandings with AFP troops regularly occurred (ICG, 2008a).

Local

From a local perspective, the Arroyo administration played a game similar to that of the Marcos administration. She backed, like Marcos did, certain families to create a powerful block against the MILF on the ground. One family in particular had become a formidable force. At the time in 2008, the Ampatuan clan was in control of Manguindanao. Its leader, Andal Ampatuan Senior was the governor of Manguindanao since 2001. Another member, Zaldy Ampatuan, had become governor of the ARMM in 2005. And there were more family members in influential political positions, such as city mayor (ICG, 2010). The Ampatuans controlled most of the local police, military auxiliaries and civilian volunteers. These forces, together with other armed private guards, formed their private army (ICG, 2010). The military auxiliary, the Citizen Armed Force Geographical Units (CAFGUs), were armed with guns. The Civilian Voluntary Organizations (CVOs), took more of a community policing role, often un-armed or with batons (Podder, 2012). Arroyo needed the support of the Ampatuans to win the 2004 elections, so an alliance was made. In fact, Arroyo backed the Ampatuans by looking the other way while they improved their position with coercive methods. The 2005 ARMM elections were characterized by violence and intimidation (ICG, 2010). In 2007, the situation became even worse throughout Mindanao. The Human Security Act was enacted in Congress, which gave the AFP considerably more power. They could now make arrests without warrants and detain suspects for 72 hours. According to Santos, this law does not distinguish between terrorists only targeting combatants (MILF foot-soldiers) and terrorists that target civilians (Santos, 2010).

The situation exploded in 2008, when the MOA-AD was rejected in the Supreme Court. Fighting erupted and massive displacement followed. After the all-out war in 2000, this was again a moment of mass displacement, with over 600 000 people forced to flee their homes (OPAPP). After this, in what was either a stroke of overconfidence or a lack of intelligence, the Ampatuan clan committed a terrible crime. By massacring a 58 people convoy on the road, composed of half journalists and half members of their rival Mangudadatu family, they caused an international scandal (ICG, 2010). This was a serious tactical blunder, which forced Arroyo to intervene. Issuing arrest warrants against 196 suspects, the military moved into Ampatuan controlled territory in Mindanao. Because the police was bought and private armed contingents were on the loose, Arroyo had to declare martial law to restore order (ICG, 2010). After this massacre, the amount of rido conflicts quickly increased (ICG, 2011a). Chaos in Manguindao dominated. With counter-terrorist operations in the Sulu archipelago and chaos on the Mindanao mainland, the local conditions in the ARMM were not favorable to peace.

This violent local context was fed by another dimension. Carmen Abu Bakar (2015) writes that the ARMM does not really appear in both regional and national plans, and if they do, plans are not viable (Abu Bakar, 2015). According to Abu Bakar, “why else are poverty levels in the ARMM increasing?” (Abu Bakar, 2015) She also claims that globalization has had significant local effects. Because of the continuously increasing flow of remittances from abroad, families had become less self-reliant. While remittances can spur economic growth, the outgoing flow of oversee workers also caused brain drain (Abu Bakar, 2015). For the Moro population, destinations in the developed Gulf area were popular. Combining a stay abroad with Islamic education or the Hadj was an attractive option (Abu Bakar, 2015). This has increased the ties between the Moros and the wider Islamic ummah, facilitating more cultural exchange. For example in the way Moro women dress, Arab religious custom such as the hijab, abaya and nikab became more popular21. This exchange is strengthened by the connection to the Internet. The Internet and further integration into the world market also caused another effect, which Abu Bakar calls the homogenization of culture (Abu Bakar, 2015). The neoliberal drive to connect all parts of the world into a large world market, viewing people mainly as potential customers, affected local culture and tradition. The adoption of a western lifestyle by Moro youth was a fear among many Moros (Abu Bakar, 2015). This intensified a narrative of a clash of civilizations, which was already fueled by the War on Terror. Locally, this did not create a favorable context for peace.

21 The hijab refers to the Islamic headscarf. The abaya is a robe-like dress. A nikab is clothing worn by Muslim women to cover their faces, except the eyes. 82

2.4.3. State

From July till October 2005, the AFP launched operation Tornado. This operation was the first operation under the AHJAG agreement and specifically directed against ASG and JI. Its aim was to expel these groups from Mindanao. However, at the beginning of the operation, AFP troops clashed with MILF fighters. After agreeing to reposition the MILF troops, the operation got successful. Most importantly, ASG leaders and foreign jihadi fighters were driven off the Mindanao mainland to Sulu. Despite minor clashes between troops, the MILF was able to hold off its troops in most cases (ICG, 2008a). The operation only killed/captured eight targets, but was nevertheless a turning point. Successful cooperation had resulted in the separation between the MILF and the ASG/foreign jihadi groups (ICG, 2008a). This paved the way for the next step in the negotiations: ancestral domain.

It was already foreseen that this would be the most contentious issue for both parties. The Moros were fighting for political recognition of their lands and their historical claim. On the other hand, the government did not want to cede too much territory and power. There was a consensus among the parties that the MILF would not bring up independence, if the GRP would not bring up the Constitution. For the MILF the Constitution represented a document that undermined the legitimate rights of the Moro people, since it was based on a unitary state. Consequently, they did not recognize it (ICG, 2008a).

The first obstacle presented itself in September 2008, on which villages should be included in the territory. The MILF claimed 1000 villages for the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity (BJE) while the GRP only wanted to include 600 villages (Taya, 2007). Other obstacles related to the formula for wealth sharing and governance structures. Wealth sharing from natural resources was a major problem for the ARMM, since it was only entitled to keep about 10 % (Abuza, 2003). For the MILF it was important to get better conditions. The same holds true for off-shore exploitation rights and marine resources (ICG, 2008b). On governance, the main contestation would be the relation between the GRP and the BJE. For the MILF, this relation should be associative, as two units which were nearly equal and shared sovereignty. They would rely on the GRP for foreign affairs, monetary policy and defense matters. The GRP wanted to emphasize that the BJE would be part of a larger body, the Philippine state. They envisaged a model like the US, making the BJE the equivalent of a US state (ICG, 2008b). The parties reached consensus on many things in February 2006, but a month later, the talks stalemated.

Arroyo was confronted with continuous allegations of corruption and abuse of power, especially after the Hello-Garci scandal. In the scandal, Arroyo is caught on tape admitting to

83 electoral manipulation in the Presidential election of 2004. She got the necessary votes in Maguindanao with the help of Governor Andal Ampatuan Senior (ICG, 2010). Due to past experiences with People Power Revolutions, this was a constant threat to her power. When in February 2006, a coup d’état was attempted, she proclaimed martial law. The rebellion called for another people power revolution, but this was effectively pre-empted. The leaders were arrested and important institutions secured (ICG, 2008a). Nevertheless, it seemed that Arroyo needed to pacify her conservative opponents. With regard to the peace negotiations, this meant taking a tougher position and effectively stalemating the negotiations.

After this setback, it was important for Arroyo to regain some of her power by other means. Her approach now focused more on the military. She declared an all-out war against the Communist movement, launched extensive exercises with the US military and used her political allies in Mindanao to limit MILF control and influence. The exercises with the US military were to precede large-scale operations against ASG and other foreign jihadi fighters active in the Sulu archipelago. In August 2006, the AFP and the US military contingent launched Operation Ultimatum, in which they targeted ASG forces on Jolo, with some prime high value targets. Having learned from their clashes with MNLF forces in February 2005, they made a gentlemen’s agreement in advance to Operation Ultimatum. The agreement was based upon the AHJAG mechanism that existed with the MILF, but had a less formal and institutionalized structure (ICG, 2008a).

The AFP and US Special Forces vigorously pursued the ASG and elements of JI for months. In a terrain which consisted of thick jungle and many mountains, this was difficult. Moreover, the ASG enjoyed quite some support among the local population. They had a fierce reputation for violence, but also distributed their funds from ransom-kidnapping generously among the local population (Ressa, 2003). AFP forces patrolled many areas surrounding the MNLF camps for several months and this made them uneasy. After several cases of extra-judicial killings by AFP troops, tensions reached a boiling point. In April 2007, the situation escalated. In pursuit of the ASG, AFP troops came too close to MNLF troops, which joined the ASG in the fight. After this, another MNLF commander on Jolo attacked the AFP and heavy fighting erupted. The AFP seized the MNLF bases, which caused their dispersion. Very possibly, contingents may have joined the ASG. Also, a massive displacement of civilians on the Island took place, which was a severe blow for public confidence in the government. For the GRP, this should have been an important lesson. Taking external spoilers like the MNLF into account might not be enough to keep them from interfering, especially for operations in a small target area. It is much better to bring them over to your side, or establish a sound coordinating structure. Afterwards, the GRP chose to continue its rejectionist, divisive approach to the MNLF. It only issued an arrest warrant against Commander Malik, giving his colleague a free pass. Operation

Ultimatum was successful in weakening the ASG, killing several important targets (see timeline), but did antagonize the MNLF which caused massive displacement (ICG, 2008a).

In May 2007, midterm elections caused Arroyo extra trouble. Because of conservative party gains, Arroyo needed to reshuffle her cabinet. Internal resistance against a peace deal grew within the cabinet (Abinales, 2010). Suspicions of MILF terrorist activity were shared by several cabinet members, because of several terrorist attacks in late 2006 and the start of 2007. Perhaps due to the failed coordination attempt with the MNLF, or the lack of progress in the peace process with increasing suspicions of MILF terrorist activity, AHJAG expired in June and was not extended. The consequences were however clear. Miscommunication led to two incidents in the month of July. The Al-Barka incident, where 10 marines were captured and beheaded, was especially painful (ICG, 2008a).

For Arroyo, this was a good moment to put forward the Human Security Act. This law effectively strengthened the government’s counter-insurgency capability by allowing the AFP to make arrests without a warrant and detain terrorist suspects for 72 hours (Human security act, RA 9372, 2007). It was pressured by the US and other NATO members, which were concerned about the many shortcomings in the Philippine police and justice chain. Many cases were not put together properly and suspects could escape justice too often. Where other countries in Southeast Asia, such as Malaysia and Singapore, were arresting many members of the Southeast Asian terrorist network after 9/11, the Philippines was less effective (Ressa, 2003). This was another step towards a more military pronged approach. It coincided with US involvement becoming more exclusively a matter of two things: counter-terrorism operations and large aid and development projects22. After the US ambassador terminated the United Stated Institute for Peace (USIP) Philippines Facilitation Project, the US played no role anymore in the diplomatic domain (ICG, 2008a).

In the beginning of 2008, there was a new breakthrough. Perhaps because she had fought off another coup attempt in November 200723, Arroyo felt confident enough to continue the peace process. More likely is that because of continuing internal pressure, Arroyo was desperate for political success (ICG, 2010). Besides, this was the path she had taken since her inauguration into the office of the Presidency. It was politically impossible to declare an all-out war with the MILF as she had done with the communist insurgency without a trigger cause. More in general, Abinales (2010) stressed that there was a sense among government officials that real economic development would

22 For example, a grant of $ 190 million was awarded by USAID for a five-year period to the Philippines. Most of this money was destined for Mindanao (ICG, 2009) 23 On November 29, 2007 the Manila Peninsula Siege occurred. 25 officers mutineered and called for the ousting of president Arroyo. They were arrested after several hours. 85 only take off if these insurgencies were pacified/defeated (Abinales, 2010). Because of these reasons, Arroyo must have given her negotiators a strong mandate to get a deal. In March 2008, the government let go of its insistence on constitutional processes for the extension of the BJE outside the ARMM. This issue had kept the stalemate going since September 2006 (ICG, 2008b). In July 2008, the parties reached consensus on the Memorandum of Agreement on Ancestral Domain in Malaysia. In this memorandum several things were agreed to (Rodolfo & Iqbal, 2008). Each point is followed by a summarized conclusion of its effects:

- Concept of who belonged to the Bangsamoro included all persons who were descendants (whether full, partly or through marriage) from the original inhabitants of Mindanao, Palawan and the Sulu archipelago since the creation of the first Sultanates. Consequently, this comprised a larger group than just the Muslims. The main concept that this document revolved around is that of ancestral domain. Ancestral domain and ancestral land refers to: “those held under claim of ownership, occupied or possessed, by individually since time immemorial continuously to the present, except when prevented by war, civil disturbance, force majeure, or other forms of possible usurpation or displacement by force, deceit, stealth, or as a consequence of government project or any other voluntary dealings entered into by the government and private individuals, corporate entities or institutions.” Taking into account the historical background, this would come down to an area covering every piece of land on Mindanao which was ever colonized by the Moros or one of its client peoples. - The territory of the BJE was divided into three categories: 1) core consisting of the ARMM and six municipalities, 2) a second category consisting of 737 Muslim-majority barangays which would vote on joining the BJE within the next year and 3) a third category consisting of 1459 areas or Special Intervention Zones which would be subjected to a socio-economic and cultural affirmative program by the GRP and offered a plebiscite to join the BJE in 25 years after signing a Comprehensive Deal. The territory would comprise the land mass, maritime, terrestrial, fluvial and alluvial domains, aerial domain and the atmospheric space. Territorial waters would stretch beyond the 15 kilometers demarcation for the internal waters, in the territorial waters the parties will exercise joint jurisdiction. This meant that the BJE could grow into a potentially far larger area (figure 5). The territorial delineations of the BJE would be quite similar to that of an independent state. - On natural resources, the parties agreed to a formula of 75%/25% revenue-sharing in favor of the BJE. Natural resources included all minerals and sources of energy. The BJE is allowed to issue permits in this regard, for example for the extraction of minerals or forest operations. This also extended to the ability to enact agrarian laws, to ensure control of the

food supply for the BJE. This would effectively create an entity which can become financially independent from Manila. Ensuring control over minerals, food and energy is similarly reducing any reliance on Manila. - Governance falls in three categories: the sole prerogative of the BJE, the sole prerogative of the GRP or shared in an associative relationship. The first comprised of the power to build its own institutions in: civil service, electoral process, financial and banking, education, legislation, legal, economic, law and order, judicial system and correctional services. The second is external defense and parts of foreign policy and the third concerns parts of foreign policy (explained in the next bullet point) and other matters such as border policing (much of which has yet to be determined). The relationship between the GRP and BJE shall be associative. The provisions for governance are far-fetched, reaching much further than that of a state in a federal governance system. The associative relationship assumes a relation of equality between two ‘nations’. This is also confirmed in international law, which is applicable because the MOA-AD is placed in an international legal context. In practice, this has been used for former colonial states as an intermediate stage on their way to full independence (Supreme Court Order 183591, 14 October 2008). - The BJE can enter into agreements with other nations provided that these do not constitute an act of aggression towards the GRP. It shall also be represented in ASEAN or UN meetings on all relevant matters. This would practically grant the BJE, except from the military domain, a status as equal to other states in international relations.

The fact that the territory of the BJE and the Moro ancestral domain are not the same is a complicating factor. Both concepts are used interchangeably in the text of the MOA-AD. The same holds for the total Moro ancestral domain and the claims that distinct communities may have. A provision (MOA, “Concepts and Principles”, par 6) stating that the BJE shall have jurisdiction and authority over the Ancestral Domain and Ancestral Lands is increasing the ambiguousness and confusion.

For the GRP, the MOA-AD could easily be interpreted as a knee-fall to the MILF. Because of its far-reaching content and the fact that Arroyo’s administration did not take enough care to involve all stakeholders in the process, it cannot come as a surprise that two Christian politicians petitioned the Supreme Court for an injunction of the signing of the MOA-AD. North Cotabato Governor Emmanuel Pinõl and Zambuanga City Mayor Celso Lobregat were the main banner carriers for the anti-MOA movement. They were joined by the Archbishop of Cotabato and another 18 mayors from

Christian towns (Schou, 2014). The Supreme Court suspended the signing of the MOA-AD and later in October rejected the MOA-AD entirely as unconstitutional (Schou, 2014). The Court concludes:

“Indeed, the BJE is a state in all but name as it meets the criteria of a state laid down in the Montevideo Convention, namely, a permanent population, a defined territory, a government, and a capacity to enter into relations with other states.” (Supreme Court Order 183591, 14 October 2008)

Further emphasizing: “The defining concept underlying the relationship between the national government and the BJE being itself contrary to the present Constitution, it is not surprising that many of the specific provisions of the MOA-AD on the formation and powers of the BJE are in conflict with the Constitution and the laws.” (Supreme Court 183591, 14 October 2008)

Figure 4: Map of territorial agreements in the MOA-AD. The red area is the ARMM. The yellow areas are the category B lands.

Not merely the local Christians that were against the MOA-AD. The Lumads were similarly not consulted by the Arroyo administration and concerned they would become a minority within a minority state (Schou, 2014). The Lumads feared that their lands would not be recognized in the BJE, as many of their people did not possess the official titles. Moreover, the Moros could limit their right to self-governance and claim the resources in their lands. This fear is not entirely without cause,

88 since the ancestors of the present Lumads were enslaved by the Moros (ICG, 2011b). The Lumads invoked the Indigenous Peoples Rights Act (IPRA) with supporters in Manila. The IPRA is part of international law guaranteeing self-determination rights to indigenous peoples within the boundaries of the national state. The IPRA is recognized and signed by the Philippine State, which made many Manila politicians sympathetic to the Lumad call (Schou, 2014). The Court’s decision and the fierce opposition dynamics created an opposition block that was comprised of almost all important politicians in Manila.

Because of the Supreme Court decision, the MOA-AD had become an utter failure. Arroyo had to distance herself from the peace process, stressing she did not know what had been on the table (ICG, 2008b). Arroyo did what she had always done when negative attention focused on her: shift the spotlights.

Not entirely inconvenient to the Arroyo administration was the breakaway of three MILF commanders due to the signing of the MOA-AD. While the mainstream MILF kept their calm after the Supreme Court order, these groups caused havoc. Violent clashes occurred and because these groups also attacked unprotected Christian villages, a man-hunt was quickly opened. A strategy change by Arroyo effectively stalled the peace negotiations completely. The GRP would now only commit itself to dialogue with authentic communities, not with rebel groups (ICG, 2008b). This comes down to an approach which is very similar to the US-approach of winning the hearts and minds of the local population while fighting the Taliban, or in this case, the MILF. Two developments did not aid any resumption of peace talks. First, AHJAG expired again. Second, the IMT decided to leave because it could not access the areas where it should work (ICG, 2009).

In July 2009, Arroyo decided to cease extensive military operations against the MILF rogue commanders. Not only did the GRP needed to cut costs due to an increasing budget deficit, for Arroyo, some accomplishment of peace with the MILF had become a matter of personal prestige (Abinales, 2010). Due to the Maguindanao massacre (see local section), the climate for closing any deal was off. Even though the Ampatuan clan was a former ally to the administration, the image of lawlessness and violence persisted in the ARMM region. From this easily flows a belief that this area and its people could impossibly govern themselves. Finally, with the 2010 elections drawing near and constitutional amendment being a prerequisite for a deal, the parties could not agree on much. In April 2010, an agreement on the return of IDP’s and the removal of land mines was Arroyo’s last feat in the peace process.

2.4.4. Group

For the MILF, this phase is characterized by three developments: cooperation with the AFP and US military under AHJAG, diplomatic success and internal dissension.

After the operationalization of AHJAG, the MILF cooperated with the AFP and US troops to remove ASG and JI elements from the Mindanao mainland. An example is the warning that Murad issued to Kadaffy Janjalani in June 2005 (leader ASG), ordering him to leave because he would reveal his location within 72 hours to the AFP (ICG, 2008a). It is unclear whether the MILF really completely severed its ties with Al-Qaeda in this period, but if such contacts were there, they were covert and small-scale (ICG, 2008a). As explained in section 2.4.4, such ties increasingly became a liability to the MILF. Besides Al-Qaeda, MILF contacts with terrorist seemed to continue. According to the International Crisis Group, there is enough evidence signaling continued cooperation between MILF-, ASG- and JI- contingents (ICG, 2008a). However, it is unclear if the MILF Central Committee is 1) aware of these events, 2) unable to stop them or 3) still actively supporting them (ICG, 2008a). What is clear though is that counter-terrorist operations under AHJAG worked to weaken ASG and JI. Also, it caused the attention of the GRP and US to shift towards combating these groups. It seemed that terrorism was no longer a factor which could decisively spoil the negotiations. For the MILF, this meant that it could operate undisturbed on the Mindanao mainland to strengthen its support base and legitimacy. Its shadow government continued to function effectively while the MILF tried to increase its influence in competition with local clan leaders, such as the Ampatuans (see section local). These were necessary preconditions to improve the success chances of any potential peace deal with the GRP.

On the diplomatic track, the MILF performed exceptionally well. This may have had several causes. First, the MILF successfully pacified US and GRP concerns on its terrorist ties. Despite continued suspicion of MILF engagement in terrorist activity in the Philippine media, the government was not keen on going back to a pre-2003 situation. Since the government could never admit that it negotiated with a terrorist group, this was a paradigm which worked in favor of the MILF. Second, the involvement of Malaysia as a third party mediator was favorable to the MILF. With Malaysia being sympathetic to the Moro plea of more Muslim rights, this created an environment in which a similar tone could be set forth within the MOA-AD. Third, the GRP seemed to need an agreement more than the MILF. For the GRP, a status quo was not a favorable result. Because the Moro peace process was so politicized, a status quo at the end of Arroyo’s term would come down to failure (ICG, 2010). And fourth, the MILF negotiators had more experience because their composition, in contrast to the GRP negotiating team, had remained fairly stable throughout the years. Perhaps as a

90 consequence, the MILF had won a clear victory in the negotiations for the MOA-AD. The satisfaction of the victory was however short-lived, because they also made a strategical error.

Like the GRP, the MILF had not sufficiently addressed external -and to a lesser degree- internal spoilers. External spoilers with especially strong connections to Manila had either been overlooked, or ignored. For example the mayors of the big Christian cities which were included in category B, or the archbishop of Cotabato (Schou, 2014). Despite the fact that the Muslims comprised about 87 % of the population, the group of about 10 % Christians was not without means and power. According to Schou, it is very different for a local minority group of the overall dominant group than for any other minority group (Schou, 2014). The MILF did not sufficiently recognize this fact. With continuing speeches about an Islamic state for Muslims, the Christians felt threatened. These Christians feared that they would not be able to practice their faith in freedom, and that their lands would be seized. Such fear was not completely without cause. Shortly after the Ancestral Domain was announced, several incidents of Moros, sometimes violently, claiming Christian lands were reported (Schou, 2014). The MILF could have used a more tolerant and plural outlook in their speeches about the new Bangsamoro homeland. Another external spoiler was the Lumad population. They sided with the Christians in fear of being dominated by the Moros. This was especially unnecessary because the Lumads shared many grievances with the Moros (Schou, 2014; ICG, 2011b). Finally, there was the MNLF. The MNLF viewed the MOA-AD as a direct attack upon the FPA and were disappointed for being sidelined (Stanford/Group/MILF). The MNLF was opposed to the MOA- AD and this was further damaging the frame of a unified Bangsamoro homeland. An argument for opponents was quickly made: “if the Muslims themselves could not agree, how could they ever rule a state with many different groups and tribes?” The MILF has tried to coordinate efforts with the MNLF, but never on the diplomatic path. In this way, the two groups made each other look weaker.

Internal spoilers were also present within the MILF. There was dissension on two fields. First, some disagreed with the strict interpretation of Islam by the MILF (Stanford/Group/MILF). In Southeast Asia, the interpretation of Islam has always been somewhat less strict than in the Arab world. However, the Arab interpretation had gained preference within the MILF. Due to the foreign connections with groups like Al-Qaeda but also with countries like Saudi-Arabia, a strand of Wahhabism Islam had become more influential among its members (Stanford/Group/MILF). Another spoiler group did not agree with the MOA-AD because it gave up the goal of independence. Acting on their grievances, three commanders, Kato, Bravo and Pangalian, started hostilities in July 2008 (ICG, 2008b), (ICG, 2012b), (Santos, 2010.) The MILF Central Committee distanced itself from these commanders, but did not cut them loose. For the government this created an opportunity to shift attention away from the failure of the MOA-AD to combating these commands. The MILF retained

91 almost all of its major commanders and lost only several hundred of its fighting strength (ICG, 2012b). What is more, these commanders were already known for their cruel methods and foreign jihadi ties (ICG, 2008a). This was especially true for commander Bravo, who had a reputation for violence. In this regard, his loss could also be regarded a blessing for the MILF. Kato was more respected, and because he was like Murad an ethnic Manguindanao, a more painful loss for Murad (ICG, 2009). Due to continuous hostilities between these groups and the AFP, it was impossible for the MILF to restart the peace process and set a favorable benchmark with this president before her term would end (ICG, 2010).

It becomes clear that the MILF was highly successful in its diplomatic strategy with the government, but far less with other players in Mindanao. Its grass-roots strategy of consultation with the people, for example by organizing big assemblies, was an effective method to gain public approval, but not for securing the support of important leaders from the establishment in Mindanao. This turned out to be a strategic error.

2.4.5. Main observations

Full of expectations and hopes, this phase ended in a big disappointment for the peace process. After the MILF chose the diplomatic path in 2005 by aligning with the GRP and the US in counter-terrorist operations against ASG and foreign jihadi fighters, it took the group some time to really cut ties. While cooperation under AHJAG was ongoing, attacks were still linked to the MILF. However, its leadership denied any terrorist endorsement and if terrorist activities were still employed by MILF contingents, actions were covert and small-scale. Important for the research question, this kind of terrorist involvement proved no obstacle for the GRP to continue the peace process. Whether this level of activity eventually undermined the MOA-AD is hard to say because there were so many factors which played a role. In this regard, it was not terrorist ties that were the largest spoiler to peace, as was the case in the two previous phases.

The contextual factors can be interpreted as both aiding and undermining a peace. Growing international involvement, for example with the IMT, and active roles for Malaysia and Japan, had a positive effect on the peace process. AHJAG, the IMT and the local monitoring committees for the CCCH created a relatively peaceful environment on the ground. As we have seen in phase one and two, peace on the ground is a necessary requirement to keep the focus within the negotiations on non-military affairs. On a national level, the context was less favorable. An enduring struggle with the communist movement drained resources. Also, internal pressure from conservatives and dissatisfied

92 military commanders grew. The threat of people power revolution was long looming over Arroyo’s presidency. This decreased her standing and authority, which became apparent after the MOA-AD plan was made public. The administration clearly had many opponents with spoiler intentions. Locally, the counter-terrorist operations in the Sulu archipelago had mixed results. Because of fighting with the MNLF, large populations got displaced. Moreover, their fighters got dispersed and mixed with ASG and JI contingents. This created a much more difficult situation for counter-terrorist operations than under AHJAG in MILF territories. Furthermore, globalization processes had significant local dynamics. The war on terror raised antagonism and discrimination between Muslims and Christians. Next to this, economic globalization threatened Moro culture. Western lifestyles were easily accessible to Moro youth. As a countermovement, Muslims got more connected to the wider ummah and identified stronger as such. This widened the gap between the population on Mindanao and undermined reconciliation and local peace initiatives. Finally, the carte blanche that the Arroyo administration gave to the Ampatuan clan, especially in combination with more far-reaching counter- terrorist legislation, triggered large scale extra-judicial killings and human rights violations. Overall, both parties did not show sufficient knowledge of the contextual factors, or simply chose to ignore them.

The administration was under too much pressure to produce results. Whether by pressure from conservative politicians, the military or international partners, the GRP sold itself short with the MOA-AD. Besides this, the administration overestimated its own ability to enforce the deal, or underestimated resistance in Congress, among locals and through legal proceedings.

The MILF aimed too high. A victory in the negotiation room is only worth something when there is support for the implementation of the deal. Clearly, the MILF did not want to involve local politicians, minority groups and the MNLF, as the MILF resisted the kinship system and secularism. This was a strategic error, because it were local politicians that killed the MOA-AD in the Supreme Court. Also, the MILF had almost no sympathizers in Congress, which made it helpless in the political and media battle that followed the publication of the MOA-AD.

This phase clearly shows that many dimensions should be addressed during peace negotiations, and that a room in Kuala Lumpur can produce an outcome which is far from realistic in practice. Addressing external and internal spoilers, maintaining a ceasefire with international auditors and the implementation of credible, realistic and inclusive strategies should all be taken into account.

2.5. New energy and building trust under Benigno Aquino (2010-2014)

2.5.1. Timeline of events

Date Event Description Actor(s) June 2010 First State of the Aquino expressed commitment to peace GRP Nation Aquino arguing that the Philippines will remain poor if peace will not come January Tripartite Review The GRP resumes the Tripartite Review GRP, MNLF, 2010 Process resumed Process under Aquino OIC

February Resumption formal The peace negotiations were reopened and GRP, MILF 2011 peace talks, 20th round the MILF submitted a revised proposal for the Comprehensive Compact August 2011 Aquino meets Murad In order to give a boost to the peace GRP, MILF Ebrahim in Japan negotiations and show sincerity, the two leaders Aquino and Murad met face to face in summitry style August 2011 GRP send a GRP submits the 3 for 1 proposal. (Revenue GRP counterproposal to sharing 75%-25%) the MILF October Fighting erupts in MILF and AFP clash again. Both parties GRP, MILF 2011 Basilan and blame each other for violating the Zamboanga ceasefire. November Agreement on shape Negotiations would be structured around GRP, MILF 2011 of negotiations four themes: governance, wealth-sharing, territory and transition. April 2012 The decision points on The panels solidify the points on which GRP, MILF principles are signed they have agreed , important confidence- building moment May 2012 Parties agree to take a Review positions on: wealth-sharing, GRP, MILF step back an d take power-sharing, governance, transition time to review their roadmap, normalization process

positions Bangsamoro political entity (BPE). October Framework agreement The framework agreement was an GRP, MILF 2012 on the Bangsamoro agreement on the main points and (FAB) signed procedures to establish a new autonomous entity. From this moment, the technical work group in the various areas would have to work these points out into further detail. December Transition Commission Aquino signs the Transition Commission GRP 2012 enacted into law, tasked with drafting the Bangsamoro Basic Law. MILF chooses 8 (including chair), GRP chooses 7 members, all from Bangsamoro. January Third party monitoring The third party monitoring team was to GRP, MILF 2013 team operationalized oversee the implementation of the FAB. February - Royal Sulu Forces Approximately 200 men from the Royal Royal Sulu March 2013 invade Sabah, Sulu Forces invaded a town in Sabah, Forces, Malaysia claiming it as part of the Sulu sultanate. Malaysia When security forces stormed the village, 56 militants were killed. Ten soldiers died and six civilians. February Aquino and Murad A joint socio-economic program to help GRP, MILF 2013 Ebrahim jointly launch alleviate poverty, improve health and Sajahatra Bangsamoro sanitation and education in Bangsamoro program communities.

February Annex on transitional A detailed roadmap to the creation of the GRP, MILF 2013 arrangements signed BJE is agreed to

July 2013 Annex on revenue Agreement on detailed provisions for GRP, MILF generation and wealth revenue generation, wealth sharing and sharing signed fiscal administration August 2013 Misuari declares Misuari rebels against the FAB and the MNLF Bangsamoro Republic Tripartite Review Process, using the

situation to call again for independence. Over 50 commanders sign a resolution to affirm the FPA. September Zambuanga City MNLF forces loyal to Nur Misuari attack the MNLF 2013 attacked city of Zambuanga, raising the flag of the Bangsamoro Republic January Operation Darkhorse The AFP launched a counter-insurgency GRP, MILF, 2014 operation against the BIIF. They were BIFF assisted by the MILF. Four BIFF camps were taken. March 2014 Comprehensive The CAB is an overall agreement that GRP, MILF Agreement on the includes all detailed provisions for the Bangsamoro (CAB) is different areas of the peace agreement. signed This consists of: FAB, and annexes on transitional arrangements, revenue generation/wealth sharing, power sharing and normalization

2.5.2. Context

International

When President Aquino entered office in the summer of 2010, the financial crisis had plunged many economies into recession. Banks were saved with public money and the European debt crisis started to evolve. In the Philippines, the crisis did not produce similar effects. While the country used to carry the title ‘the sick man of Asia’, it became one of the fastest growing economies in Asia during Aquino’s term (Cook, 2015). After a brief period in 2009 of growth less than 2 %, the economy quickly recovered in 2010, reaching an almost 9 % annual growth rate that year24. It cannot be stated that this was because of Aquino’s efforts, since he just started his term. What is clear though is that the Aquino administration could take off with great enthusiasm and a large mandate. Throughout this phase, the government had growth rates above the Asian average (Cook, 2015). The global financial crisis did hardly slow down the Philippine economy. Foreign direct investment recovered in 2013 and the value of remittances kept growing steadily (Cook, 2015).

24 Source: www.tradingeconomics.com/philippines 96

The Philippines had already become the second arena for the War on Terror in 2002. This War on Terror did not stop in this phase. Though the US pulled back its forces from Iraq and Afghanistan, Jihadi terrorist groups were not defeated and could profit from this power vacuum. With conflicts igniting in Syria, Libya, Yemen and Nigeria, and ongoing conflicts involving terrorists in Afghanistan and Iraq, the War on Terror remained a top policy priority for the international community. In this light, the focus on diplomacy for the conflict in Mindanao was not in accordance with the international trend.

For this diplomacy, several actors played an important role. First and foremost there is Malaysia as facilitator- and third party to the peace negotiations. Despite continuing Philippine suspicion and cynicism on Malaysia’s role in the peace process, both by media and politicians, Malaysia acted seemingly unbiased and without a side-agenda (Franco, 2013). It used a soft style for the negotiations, providing both parties with enough space to shape the peace process according to their wishes, or to service their respective audiences. However, on the ground, Malaysia was a strict and very professional leader of the IMT, which contributed to the shaping trustful conditions to sue for peace (Franco, 2013). In 2012, the MILF and AFP counted no armed clashes (OPAPP, 2016). When approximately 200 Filipino men of the Royal Sulu Forces intruded on Sabah in February 2013, claiming the land under historic pretenses, Malaysia did not retreat from its role in the peace process. According to Franco, Malaysia, was primarily interested in creating stability in Mindanao and the Sulu archipelago (Franco, 2013). Malaysia had to deal with a large influx of refugees after the consecutive violent outbursts since the start of the conflict. This caused security concerns. Also, groups like ASG were able to operate freely in the archipelago and its surrounding waters, also affecting Malaysia. Exemplary for this is the kidnapping on the Sipadan Island, in front of the Sabah beaches. Moreover, these groups engage in piracy and smuggling, which harmed the important shipping routes in the Brunei-Indonesia-Malaysia-Philippines East Asia Growth Area (BIMP-EAGA). Franco states that for Malaysia, these concerns trump any sympathetic bias they may have towards the Moro population (Franco, 2013).

The international contact group played a valuable role. Japan, Turkey, the UK, Saudi Arabia and the NGOs involved monitored the negotiations and subsequent implementation of agreements. A core task was to keep all relevant parties involved, facilitate trust and exchange and to ensure the implementation of agreements. A difficulty for the ICG was to find the right balance between confidentiality of the information supplied by the partners, while also advocating transparency to make sure all stakeholders are on board (Yildiz, 2014). The International Contact Group was a crucial source of information, both from a grassroots level through NGO involvement, as a government level. The UK for example could provide valuable advice from its experience in Northern Ireland

(Yildiz, 2014). The ICG also indirectly produced more financial support: development assistance from the UK and Japan for Mindanao grew. Turkey made two trade and investment agreements with the Philippines. Saudi Arabia had its own investment agenda25, but took no part in significant multilateral development projects (Democratic Progress Institute, 2014).

National

Aquino took office with a mandate that was bigger than any post-Marcos president. Aided by significant economic growth, circumstances for seeking peace were clearly in his favor. However, certain formidable obstacles to the peace process continued. The political system of dynasties instigates a continuous drive to take strong positions by the family banner carriers. The weak political parties in the Philippines cannot serve to align interests in a meaningful way. Patronage networks in local constituencies often trump a political alliance with an incumbent President in Manila. This meant that already with the midterm elections in 2013, dissenting voices from Mindanao on the peace process would gain leverage with their Manila patrons, for example with Vice-president Jejomar Binay or Interior Secretary Mar Roxas26 (ICG, 2012b).

Aquino had a spotless record when it concerned corruption. This gave him the necessary credibility. It did not last though. In July 2013, a scam was discovered which showed that politicians were illegally using public funds through the Priority Development Assistance Fund (PDAF). Three senators were charged with corruption, but all from the opposition. This gave immediate rise to suspicions of bribery of public prosecutors by the Aquino camp (Cook, 2015). Another scandal truly harmed his image. When the Supreme Court ruled the Disbursement Acceleration Program, the successor of the PDAF,27 unconstitutional, because it was reallocated without congressional approval, Aquino protected his friend Florencio Abad, the Budget Secretary. Aquino argued that the Supreme Court was too powerful and that its power should be curbed by constitutional amendment (Cook, 2015). Two dynamics in Philippine politics amplify the strength of such events. The fact that the Vice- Presidency is a separate ticket means that there can be competition between the President and Vice- President. The Vice-President might want to trap the President, so he or she can grasp power. This happened to Estrada when Arroyo formed a coalition against him. Secondly, the one-term Presidency causes supporters to shift focus on Presidential candidates early on. Consequently, creating broad support in the second half of the Presidency is arguably much more difficult (Cook, 2015).

25 Saudi Arabia was known to support the MILF financially. Also, the country financed mosques and madrassas all over the world. In the period since 1997, hundreds of madrassas were built in Mindanao. 26 Both have been presidential candidates for the 2016 elections. 27 This program was supposed to accelerate spending in public development projects. 98

Until now, the national perspective has focused upon internal spoilers within the national polity. But there are different developments that should be taken into account. Aquino believed that in order to gain credibility with the MILF, the GRP should also fulfill its commitments to other groups, such as the MNLF and the Cordillera People’s Liberation Army28 (ICG, 2013). Concerning the CPLA, the GRP had success and concluded a closure agreement which paved the way for true disarmament and positive transformation (OPAPP, 2016). With the MNLF, the government initially got the peace process back on track. The Tripartite Review sessions were continued under Aquino and led to 42 consensus points (OPAPP, 2016). However, after the Framework Agreement on the Bangsamoro was struck with the MILF, the MNLF felt excluded. It demanded integration of the FPA into the BBL (Cook, 2015). This reason and the GRP position that the Tripartite Review Process should be concluded because it had produced consensus points which addressed all specific MNLF concerns which were left out of the FAB, caused Nur Misuari to rebel. He proclaimed the independent Bangsamoro Republic and his forces attacked Zambuanga City a month later (OPAPP). Not surprisingly, the peace process with the MNLF was put on hold. Also the communists continued to resist. After a brief attempt in the beginning of 2011, peace talks with the CPP/NPA broke down because of distrust and strong, inflexible communist demands (ICG, 2013). What all these peace attempts had in common though, is that the GRP had showed its willingness to do concessions and strive for sustainable peace.

Local

The ARMM continued to be in desperate state during phase 4 (2010-2014). The region ranked at the bottom of the Human Development Report by the UNDP, with the lowest income per capita and functional literacy rate (Bacani & Ferrer, 2014). Under Aquino, with help from the Japanese and the US, large investments were made in the region to counter the trend of an increasingly impoverished region (Bacani & Ferrer, 2014). This was much needed because poverty in the ARMM was, contrary to the national trend, increasing, up from 39.9 % in 2009 to 48.7 % in 2012 (figure 4). The ARMM was long controlled by the Ampatuan clan, but they were in a weak position to retain control after the Maguindanao massacre and the military actions that followed against them when Arroyo declared martial law in Maguindanao (section 2.5.2). This would leave a power vacuum in a region which is already characterized by criminality and warlordism (ICG, 2011a). The GRP feared this might threaten the peace process, since it could produce a governor which was distinctly anti- MILF.

Aquino used his powers to appoint a caretaker governor in the meantime, while delaying the ARMM elections until 2013 (ICG, 2012a). A friendly clan to the Aquino’s, the Hatamans from Basilan,

28 The Cordillera People’s Liberation Army was a small-scale insurgency movement which fought for more autonomy in the Cordillera region. 99 were accepted by most stakeholder. Its foreman, Mujiv Hataman, did well and crushed Misuari in the 2013 election for an official term. For Aquino, the delay meant extra time to get potential spoilers on board. Since the MILF was strongly represented in the Maguindanao and Maranao clans, this meant addressing the concerns of other clans. Especially the concerns of the Tausugs, which originate from the Sulu archipelago, should be managed. The governor of Sulu, Sakur Tan, was a powerful man who could not be ignored (ICG, 2012b). The Tausugs feared the loss of power to the MILF with a peace deal and resisted any domination from the Mindanao mainland (ICG, 2012b). The question which institution would get control of the money flow was perhaps the most important. The Internal Revenue Allotment (IRA) accounted for nearly 80 % of local governments’ budget, and is directly transferred from Manila. The MILF wanted control of the IRA because it feared the IRA could be used to undermine its power. Local governors such as Tan understandably argued against MILF control (ICG, 2012b). For Manila, managing these concerns was a balancing act. On the one side, Manila could not antagonize the MILF too much, only exerting tolerable pressure. On the other side, the new Bangsamoro region should become a more unified and better governed region than the present ARMM. Besides this concern, Jolo was home to the ASG and foreign Jihadi fighters (ICG, 2012b). Consequently, the Aquino administration had to be careful not to delegitimize its own counter- insurgency campaign by engaging too friendly with politicians which were known to have ties with these groups, such as Sakur Tan. This would alert the conservative hawks in Congress all the more.

Finally, it was essential for the Aquino administration to get development underway in the ARMM region. For the MILF this was also important, because any agreement had to be endorsed by local plebiscites. This was a crucial missing element in the FPA agreement, which did not deliver such a peace dividend (Cook, 2015). Work in the Bangsamoro Development Agency continued and in the FAB and CAB, extensive provisions on securing economic development were incorporated (ICG, 2012a). The government also worked with the MNLF to get development in MNLF communities underway. Whereas other regions in Mindanao, such as the Davao region, got accelerating growth rates, the ARMM stagnated. Income levels in the ARMM were severely behind other regions. On average, people in the ARMM made about $ 400,- a year, which comes down to slightly over $ 1,- a day. No administration really succeeded in raising income levels. This is one of the reasons that peace is so necessary.

100

Figure 5: Income levels according to region. Source: Philippine Statistics Authority.

2.5.3. State

The Aquino administration was convinced that with some new ideas and a strong mandate, which they had obtained, a breakthrough in the peace process with the MILF could be made (ICG, 2012a). After the failed MOA-AD, it was necessary to regain trust and carefully move for a new

101 agreement. The grand strategy of the Aquino administration was one of convergence. Whereas other administrations had been keen on a ‘divide and rule’ strategy, for example by Marcos through his alliance with Ali Dimaporo, or Arroyo’s alliance with the Ampatuans, Aquino used local actors in a different way. Aquino’s strategy was not to divide the clans/groups to cause internal fighting, but to manage their differences by actively engaging them (ICG, 2011a),(ICG, 2012a),(ICG, 2012b). The convergence strategy consisted of three paths:

1) A peace deal with the MILF based on broad support,

2) Finish the peace process with the MNLF, and

3) Partner with local politicians and civil society to improve the ARMM.

For the latter, the administration had to make difficult choices. For example, disarm the private armies of local governors or allow them to retain such forces? Channel the money for development directly to local administrations or create a separate fund? On both questions, Aquino chose the first option and it worked. The trade-off was simple. Aquino allowed local actors, the establishment of the ARMM, to retain their privileges in the short term, while pleasing the MILF by allowing them to challenge the system in the long run. The latter was done by allowing the MILF to be in control of the Bangsamoro Transitory Authority, the body which would oversee and implement the transition towards the Bangsamoro Political Entity (ICG, 2012a). In this body, the MILF held most seats and delivered its chair (ICG, 2012a). Jonathan Powell (2014) describes this as ‘sunset’ and ‘sunrise’ clauses (Powell, 2014). In this case, it concerns a policy and a clause but because they are interconnected, the same logic applies. The sunset clause will allow the established parties to anticipate a new situation over a limited period of time, and the sunrise clause provides a party with an essential element of its political program that can be further developed in time (Powell, 2014).

In the section on context, elaborations have already been made of the second and third part of the convergence strategy. Having mixed success in the second, the third track was well executed by the administration. Now we turn to the first track of the convergence strategy.

The peace process with the MILF was the main policy priority. For Aquino, it was important to move the MILF away from the MOA-AD, since any outcome that would come near to it would be undoubtedly challenged in the Supreme Court and rejected in Congress. If any constitutional amendments were necessary, the Aquino administration would not reject this in advance. However, the administration was not fond of the prospect of leading such a campaign and would much rather avoid it (ICG, 2012a). Clearly, these were the two main concerns. A potential agreement should not resemble the MOA-AD and it should be done within the framework of the Constitution.

102

The first thing about the MOA-AD which was striking was its depth and detail. Having agreed on security arrangements (2001) and rehabilitation (2002) in a much more parsimonious way, the MOA-AD was extensive in its coverage. Much unlike the MILF strategy of small and irreversible steps, the MOA-AD was supposed to become a knock-out homerun. However, its detail made the MOA-AD more vulnerable for legal challenges. Aquino opted for a framework agreement, in which all important matters would be concluded, but on headlines instead of on detailed implementation provisions. The details of contentious issues such as power-sharing and revenue-sharing were left to technical working groups.

The process of concluding a Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro (CAB) in March 2014 was not without obstacles. Especially in the beginning, the MILF was unwilling to take a step back from the MOA-AD. The talks threatened to fail when Aquino did something remarkable. Just like his mother had met with Nur Misuari just after she came into office, Aquino met with Murad in Japan, Tokyo29. This summit was a risky but a well-timed step. Powell writes that leaders are often overconfident that they can accomplish something in a conversation face to face. He warns that this may backfire in two ways. First, once a leader has mingled in the process, the group opposition can expect high government officials to engage with them in the future. Second, if the process fails, a leader may become blamed and lose credibility (Powell, 2014). It is generally recommended to engage when a peace accord is almost concluded and these risks are significantly lower (Powell, 2014). Opinions are divided though, as Ramsbotham, Woodhouse & Miall write that leadership pushes at difficult times are important (Ramsbotham, Woodhouse & Miall, 2011). In this case of Aquino, two elements gave it extra momentum. The meeting was a well-kept secret which took the media by surprise, and the timing, with the negotiations at the verge of collapse, were perfect (Powell, 2014). The Aquino-Murad meeting brought the negotiations back on track, at the end of the month the parties were out of the impasse. Other obstacles which the GRP encountered in their dealings with the MILF were tackled one by one. Because of good work from the IMT and LMTs, plus a functioning AHJAH mechanism, the issue of armed confrontation was less threatening. The amount of attacks between the AFP and the MILF reached 0 in 2012 (OPAPP). Terrorism was still an issue of concern, but was more linked to groups like ASG, JI and BIIF, not the BIAF (ICG, 2012a).

In what ways did the CAB differ from the MOA-AD? The tone and nature of the agreement is definitely different. Substantively, the most important differences lie in the provisions on territory and governance. On the first, the MOA-AD automatically included the ARMM in the new territory, while the CAB provides for a plebiscite in these areas. Manila used the plebiscite requirement in the ARMM so that the MILF would have to reach out to local government leaders (ICG, 2008b). Also,

29 June 24, 2014 103 there was no additional category B (see figure 5) anymore which could possibly mean a much larger loss of territory. However, the potential reach of the CAB was greater, because contiguous areas could petition to hold a plebiscite to join the region. The threshold for this was only 10 % (ICG, 2012a). On governance, the GRP clearly demarcated its higher authority in the CAB. The relationship between the GRP and BPE would be asymmetrical, instead of the envisioned associative relationship in the MOA-AD. Also, the GRP would retain more control and powers than under the MOA-AD, for example shared control on the new Bangsamoro police force, social security and pension systems or land registration (Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro, (CAB), 27-3-2014). What is also crucial is that the CAB differs in some important regards from the FPA. The government system in the new region will be parliamentary, with a cabinet of ministers. This is done to ensure that power is also shared on the regional level, and not centered on the governor as in the ARMM. The CAB also enables the new region to become much more self-reliant. On wealth-sharing, provisions for the BPE have improved significantly, with a 75/25 distribution formula of gains from natural resources. Furthermore, the BPE will be able to tax more effectively than the ARMM (Bacani & Ferrer, 2014). The rights of minority groups are better ensured in the framework agreement. And finally, the provisions on transition are more detailed and meaningful, with longer financial commitments; full disarmament and demobilization over time, and a stronger commitment to good governance by fostering a party system (CAB, 2014).

For the Aquino administration, the first and foremost pillar of its convergence strategy was accomplished. Successful engagement with spoilers, a sound negotiation strategy and favorable contextual conditions played a role to bring this about. The Aquino administration has clearly tried to make sure that the CAB cannot be successfully challenged before the Supreme Court. The process ensured congressional approval of the Bangsamoro basic law, the organic act for the new Bangsamoro Political Entity, first. Also, the democratic process seemed to be sufficiently warranted with stakeholder consultation and popular approval through plebiscites. If a challenge is successful, the separability clause in the CAB will ensure that all elements of the agreement which would be founded constitutional by the Court can still come into effect (Cook, 2014).

2.5.4. Group

For the MILF, this phase would become characterized by a sense of realism. Because the MILF had obtained the MOA-AD, it was very hard to take a step back (ICG, 2011a). The MOA-AD failed because of many reasons, but the general perception was that it mainly failed because of an

104 intervention from the Supreme Court, judging it unconstitutional. For the MILF, which had never recognized the Constitution as legitimate, acknowledging the judgment as a new reality was hard. This did not send a straight message to their supporters. With the new administration, the MILF did not expect anything else from what they had experienced since 1997. The government would try to show its good intentions, but would lack any real commitment to push it through (ICG, 2011a). However, eventually a breakthrough was made. In the following, an analysis is made of why this breakthrough came about and what it produced for the MILF.

The breakthrough can, besides favorable contextual conditions, be attributed to a different interaction between the GRP and the MILF, different process dynamics. These different dynamics changed the MILF position within the peace process. The significance of this is clear. The MILF had always followed a very consistent negotiation path: no recognition of the Constitution, a relationship based on equality and the highest degree of sovereignty within the new territory (see section 2.3.4). The preconditions for a protracted social conflict had remained: state failure, deprivation of needs, legitimate grievances of the community and international involvement. However, the process dynamics changed. A discussion of the different GRP strategy was made under ‘state’. The MILF strategy though, needed to change accordingly because of several factors.

First, the GRP was led by a highly popular President which had good relations with local actors in Mindanao. With his all-encompassing peace initiative, not based on fighting one group while talking to another, it could have been considered an illegitimate course of action by the local populace to pursue a more militaristic strategy for the MILF.

Second, despite the limited number of active fighters, the BIFF movement created an alternative choice for many more radical young recruits. This might have forced the MILF core to distance itself from Kato’s BIFF and officially renounce its independence goal. While many MILF members may still cherish this goal, such a declaration does produce confidence for a continuation of the peace negotiations. The split between a more moderate old guard and younger more radical fighters became apparent. A statement made by Teresa S. Abesamis makes this very clear: “Let us be mindful that the MILF peaceniks are competing with domestic war freaks and international jihadists who have been orienting and recruiting discontented militants to their insane causes. The peaceniks need our help to win this competition for the hearts and minds of their own people. To weaken their leadership is to lose the peace. Consideration of this is probably what has caused Deles and Ferrer to be accused of ‘lawyering for the MILF’.” (Abesamis, 2015) 30

30 The last sentence refers to Teresa Deles, Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process and Miriam Coronel Ferrer, chief negotiator for the GRP. 105

Third, the dynamics on the ground changed. Sukanya Podder (2012) argues that because of stronger AFP, CAFGU and CVO presence on the ground, it has become harder for the MILF to gain civilian support. This support was not merely based upon the shadow government system, but also on more informal contacts. For example, civilians often supplied the fighters with food or medicines (Podder, 2012). Such informal contacts had decreased because of fear of government troops (Podder, 2012). The proximity of the camps was important for social service delivery and the degree of interaction with the population. Many fighters stayed in camps which were close to their original residence. In this way, they could spend much time with their families if there was no fighting going on (Ozerdem, Podder, & Quitoriano, 2010) . Also, children were often sent to the camps to receive an Islamic education and be initiated into adulthood through military training (Ozerdem et al., 2010). The introduction of local Madrassah schools made the former redundant. Also, because Murad lost control of more radical factions, the number of camps which provided these services for the MILF decreased (Podder, 2012). In sum, informal contacts decreased which made popular support decrease. The appeal to religious duty and the ideology of a Bangsamoro state lost some of its appeal in the face of risk of displacement, loss of property, interrupted education and stronger GRP military presence (Podder, 2012). These factors contributed to an MILF change of strategy, accommodating the GRP on some crucial points and distancing itself from the terms of the MOA-AD. So what did it produce for the MILF?

The CAB has many parts that appeal to the MILF and which form a significant improvement compared to the FPA. The abilities of the new BPE to become financially self-reliant, its control over natural resources, better provisions for minority and indigenous rights, more areas of exclusive discretion for the BPE, the political party system to counteract clan dominance, the financial commitments to stimulate development, an expansion of the jurisdiction of the Sharia Courts, more international involvement and sustained international monitoring of implementation, a gradual transition, less interference of the central government in law and order and the ‘separability’ and ‘repealing’ (all other legislation becomes subordinate to the basic law) clauses (ICG, 2012a; Cook, 2014; Cook, 2015; Bacani & Ferrer, 2014; CAB, 2014). Clearly, the CAB is a big achievement for the MILF.

2.5.5. Main observations

In this phase, several things came together which caused the peace negotiations to succeed. The contextual environment was favorable to a diplomatic solution. Internationally, the involvement

106 of more actors with stronger financial means and more authority was beneficial. Learning from the ARMM and other cases, it is clearly important that already during the peace process some peace dividend should be felt by the local population. Such peace dividend does not necessarily have to be more income, but can also be education and stability. Also, the International Contact Group facilitated more trust and mutual understanding within the negotiations. Nationally, the mandate which Aquino received enabled him to pursue an inclusive peace strategy. This in turn generated more trust in the government’s intentions. Another trust-building tactic was the involvement of more grassroots NGOs. Finally, Aquino engaged with local players and the MNLF, to make sure they were satisfied and, at least for the moment, on board. These measures created the right climate for the peace process to deliver. For the state, the result came at the right time. With the framework agreement in place, corruption and loss of support for Aquino became less important. The negotiations had moved on to more a technical level, which impeded effective spoiler behavior.

Within the MILF, both internal factors such as radical splintering, loss of popular support and decreasing fighting strength, as external factors such as increased GRP military presence had forced the group to moderate its strategy. Moreover, for both the GRP and MILF, it would have been a significant loss to its leaders if the negotiations would collapse. Both parties had invested strongly in the peace process, with leaders pulling their personal weight as leverage. Finally, because the MILF needed to distance itself from its radical rogue commanders, terrorist ties also watered down.

The resulting CAB seemed to be a defendable compromise for the Aquino administration and a great achievement for the MILF. The document is realistic and well-considered and addresses the root causes of the conflict. After seventeen years of negotiations, this should be considered a major milestone.

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CHAPTER 3. UNDERSTANDING THE SUCCESS OR FAILURE OF THE MILF- PHILIPPINE PEACE PROCESS

3.1. Introduction

As stated in the introduction to this thesis, there is a fair understanding of the onset of terrorist/insurgency groups. In contrast, very little is known about the processes leading to the demise of such groups. For this reason, the aim of this thesis is to focus on the demise of the MILF and answer the following research question: “How did the MILF transition to a peaceful political process?” The method followed (outlined in section 1.2.) consist of a literature review, a detailed case study description and an analysis. This chapter will combine the different observations and intermediate conclusions from the case study. The analysis is divided into three different methods (see section 1.4.2.). First, the analysis reflects on the different lens perspectives (context, state, group). What insights has this produced on the MILF case and terrorism/insurgency research in general? Second, a within-case comparison of the different phases is conducted. What factors were important in each phase and which connections can be made, or should be further explored? Third, the case is viewed from the perspective of the literature knowledge base. This will place the MILF case in the broader class of cases and single out its particular interesting features, and additional value. Observations will then be combined and summed up in a conclusion followed by recommendations. Finally, a reflection of the research process is made to establish some lessons learned.

3.2. Different lens perspectives

The MILF case had many dimensions. International dimensions such as the war on terror and the process of globalization had a profound impact on the conflict. The war on terror fueled antagonism between the Moros and the Christians, and undermined reconciliation. Globalization increased a clash of cultures, with traditional Moro culture being potentially eroded by a neoliberal model of homogenized consumption culture. Furthermore, globalization increased feelings of pan- Islamism, especially due to many Moros working in the Gulf area. This created more antagonism between Muslims and Christians on Mindanao (Abu Bakar, 2015). For the international jihadi movement, this war was already global before 2001. Their struggle already got mixed up with the

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Moro independence struggle in the 1990’s. By functioning as a safe haven for jihadi terrorists, where they could receive training within the MILF camps in exchange for funding, fighting strength and recognition within the pan-Islamist movement, the MILF became a part of the global war on terror (Ressa, 2003).

National dimensions, whether the war against insurgencies or the state of the national economy, can also impact the conflict. If the economy is doing well, the government has a stronger mandate to walk the path of peace and patience. In the MILF case, in periods where economic growth was high (2007-2008, 2012-2013), the peace process was clearly progressing better. Similarly, the war against the Communists and the counter-terrorist operations against ASG and JI had their toll on the military capacity of the AFP to wage war against the MILF. In this sense, a peace process with the MILF might also have been a military necessity for the GRP.

In the end, conflict is waged on the ground, in villages and communities. The local dimensions determine the way a war is fought, but also how and if peace can be implemented. When the Philippine economy was growing, but poverty in the ARMM still increased, this negatively affected the level of trust for the government in these areas. The same logic holds for a situation where the parties are talking peace in Kuala Lumpur, while meanwhile armed clashes cause massive displacement. Finally, when the MILF and the GRP agreed to something in the negotiation room, this did not mean the local population would accept the outcome. This is best seen when the MOA-AD was published.

3.3. Within-case comparison

A comparison of the four phases delivered some interesting results. Naturally, the fourth phase where a peace deal was forged is a positive reference point, whereas the first phase, with all- out war, frequent terrorist attacks and massive displacement is the most negative reference. The scheme below gives a clear overview (see figure 6). If a factor is present or ‘true’ (colored green), it is presumed as positive for the peace process. If a factor is absent or ‘false’ (colored red) is it considered negative for the peace process. If a factor could be viewed present or ‘true’ but only to a limited extent or not during the entire phase, it is colored orange. Two factors have been marked in italics, because their effect can be interpreted both ways. A certain degree of internal spoilers in the group can be positive, because it might drive the group to further lengths to ensure peace. For example, when the MILF warned that a younger, more radical stream in the group would gain more

109 influence if the peace negotiations would fail, this worked as a positive driver for the peace process. The same logic holds true for the degree of popular support of the MILF. Popular support should be sufficient to be a legitimate force, but not so high that the group can continue to fight/ or plead for independence.

Factor Phase one Phase two Phase three Phase four Unbalance in military power Good economic performance A bad learning example MILF A bad learning example GRP Active international involvement Low level of terrorism Low level terrorist ties MILF Development efforts ARMM GRP strategy aimed at diplomacy MILF strategy aimed at diplomacy No GRP ‘divide and rule’ tactic MILF guerilla tactic Peaceful internal spoilers GRP Active internal spoilers MILF Peaceful external spoilers No FTO listing pressure MILF Successful ceasefire Inclusive strategy GRP Inclusive strategy MILF Popular support MILF Popular support GRP No people power revolution threat President’s engagement No massive displacement

Figure 6: Within-case comparison table, most important factors

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The table consists of general categories that still leave many significant details out. It is also not true that every designation of green and red is clear-cut and without caveats. Many factors depend on other factors. Clearly, not everything was bad in phase one and good in phase four. Let us now examine the most relevant factors and connect them to theory.

3.4 Connections to theory

In the research design, a number of theories are singled out because of their importance for understanding the case, and to place the MILF case within a broader theoretical context (see section 1.4.1.). In the case descriptions, mention is made of spoiler behavior, greed/grievance motives, negotiation strategies and the wider protracted nature of this conflict.

3.4.1. Greed and Grievance theory

Greed and grievance theory goes into the motivations to start and sustain a conflict Collier & Hoeffler (2004) conclude that greed is the main explaining factor in civil war, and that there is only one significant grievance factor, ethnic dominance. Other factors, such as inequality and political rights proved insignificant according to their statistical research. Greed consists of three factors, 1) the availability of finance (mostly in the form of primary commodity exports and a powerful diaspora), 2) cost of rebellion and 3) military advantage, which is mostly about population dispersion and terrain. For the MILF case, finance is available but not abundant. There are no easy exportable primary goods such as oil or diamonds, only timber (Abu Bakar, 2015). The diaspora factor has grown stronger, as more Moros have gone oversees to work. Finance has also been made available through the Islamic ummah (see section 2.3.4). The second factor, the costs of rebellion, is relatively low in Mindanao. Economic conditions in the ARMM are bad and the prospects are similar (NSCB, 2012). The third factor, military advantage, is clearly present. Mindanao is sparsely populated and the terrain is very suitable for guerilla tactics. Still, despite some rent-seeking behavior, for example by groups like ASG with its many hostage-takings, this conflict was mostly dominated by grievances. This is illustrated by the fact that even ASG used much of its money not for greedy purposes but to help out the local population in Basilan and Sulu (Ressa, 2003).

The Moro’s grievances included the disownment of their lands and ancestral domain, erosion of their culture (kin-ship system), structural discrimination as second-class citizens, economic

111 underdevelopment (leading to continuous and large scale poverty) and restrictions on the exercise of the Islam by being subjugated to the secular Philippine law system. Some of these grievances date back to the time of the American colonization (see section 2.1.2.). Under US governance (land registration act) lands were disowned causing a deep rooted grievance. After the Philippines got independent, migration policies intensified and Mindanao, once a Muslim bastion, became dominated by a large Christian majority. Overall, the Moros had a justified cause, triggered by ethnic domination. This perhaps explains why the Jabidah massacre was no more than the fuse lighting the powder keg. When the AFP committed the Jabidah massacre, a full-scale insurgency was underway in a few years’ time.

If we look at how these grievances have developed and fed the conflict, some things stand out. Most grievances are still valid in phase four and have been admitted to by the government throughout the peace negotiations. This is not surprising because initially, the government felt it had already given a solution to the Moro problem by negotiating the FPA with the MNLF. However, it soon appeared that the FPA did not address al grievances. Particularly in the areas of the influence of Islam, credible autonomy, self-reliance and economic underdevelopment, the ARMM region fell short of addressing Moro grievances. Economic underdevelopment continued. All administrations were unsuccessful in upstarting significant structural development in the ARMM (Abu Bakar, 2015). The ARMM became a viper’s nest of corruption, failed governance and warlordism. Part of the reason was the internal revenue allotment, which was quickly pocketed by local politicians. Consequently, poverty even increased: In 2012 nearly 50 % of families in the ARMM region were poor vs 40 % in 2006. The economic development issue was also politicized as a carrot once a peace deal was struck, but not sufficiently undertaken during the peace negotiations. This was a missed opportunity because it could have given the peace process more momentum, and spoilers more irrelevant. International involvement did something to remedy this in phase 3 and 4. This failure of the ARMM undermined the credibility of the MNLF and helped the MILF to get significant popularity and carry on the struggle. Clearly, the halfhearted actions of the GRP to address grievances backfired and spoiled the peace process. The MILF cashed on this omission by addressing the grievances in their own way.

Autonomy and self-reliance come together in the control of land and the power to govern and collect resources. The MILF wanted to set an example of how a new Bangsamoro homeland would look like. They therefore developed a strategy that very meticulously addressed grievances like autonomy and self-reliance. MILF claimed control over large swaths of lands, created camps from which areas were made economically self-reliant and could be governed according to Islamic laws, undermined local government control. This is a strategy which fits with Duyvesteyn & Fumerton’s

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(2010) insurgency category. The political, relational and organizational features of the MILF were very much directed at the local population. The MILF took this lesson from the MNLF, which had a more international focus, but became very dependent on the OIC. Naturally, the MILF needed finances and the group used its connections with the global jihadi network, wider Islamic ummah and the kidnap-for-ransom groups under its protection. However, the MILF’s primary goal was to address the grievances and gain legitimacy for it. Especially on ancestral domain (which includes control of natural resources), Islamization, and the rehabilitation of Moro pride, the group had success. On economic development, also the MILF could not succeed. This can be attributed to the threat of war, or the necessity for guerilla tactics after 2000. By addressing these grievances, the conflict can take another shape, with parties and their followers more inclined to follow a path of peace and reconciliation. Despite the fact that the conflict was mainly motivated by grievances, as Mats Berdal (2005) has noted, there can be interactions between political and economic agendas (Berdal, 2005).

Discrimination got worse after the war on terror was declared in 2001. This triggered further antagonism between Christians and Muslims. The national Philippine media strengthened this antagonism by framing Mindanao as lawless, chaotic and uncivilized (Chen Yuan Woon, 2014). The rhetoric coming from the MILF, desiring an Islamic state and emphasizing Muslim identity, was similarly contributing to this. This clearly hampered the peace process.

The erosion of Moro culture was very much tied to Islamism and the kin-ship system. The kinship system was not embraced by the MILF, because it would undermine their position and fostered economic stagnation. This was clearly demonstrated by the corruption and clan-feuds in the ARMM, which fostered enduring underdevelopment. Therefore, the MILF tied the loss of culture completely to a lack of Islam. Consequently, the Moro struggle got very much connected to a worldwide Muslim struggle. Since the 1980s, Hashim Salamat had integrated the MILF in the global jihadi network. Many MILF fighters underwent training in Pakistan. Lessons in Wahabism were part of the compulsory training of foreign fighters in Pakistan. Later, in the MILF camps, similar schools were established. Because of this connection, the outbreak of the war on terror would internationalize the Moro secessionist struggle. Only when they were forced to choose for their secessionist aspirations, the MILF cut ties with their terrorist connections such as Al-Qaeda, JI, ASG and RSM.

The last true grievance had a long history and has continued throughout the centuries. This was the element of arbitrary and excessive violence against the Moro civilians, and violations of the ceasefire against combatants. Such acts triggered cycles of violence. It also provided the MILF a strong frame for new recruitment. Both parties sometimes broke the ceasefire unilaterally. The GRP committed extra-judicial killings, either by the AFP, CAFGU or private armies. The MILF would

113 respond, with conventional warfare and bombings and after 2000, when the group adopted guerilla tactics, with raids and bombings. These developments turned out to be true spoilers for the peace process. When atrocities became too great or when grievances were still ‘fresh’, parties lost their mandate to negotiate. Violence could be used as a part of politics, but excessive and too arbitrary violence, like the Estrada all-out war and Hashim all-out jihad campaigns, were not successful. Abrahms came to a similar conclusion about the effectiveness of excessive violence (Abrahms, 2006). This breakdown of trust prolonged the conflict considerably. Both parties used the threat of violence as a bargaining tool within the negotiations. However, this only works when violence can be controlled. Until the summer of 2005, the parties were mainly occupied with troop movements and violations of the ceasefire. After this, AHJAG proved an effective mechanism to create trust and low- intensity conflict. This turned out to be an essential precondition for discussing non-military affairs during the negotiations.

In summary, grievances played a very important role in extending or ending the armed conflict between MILF and GRP. Repression and lack of economic development continuously eroded trust in the GRP and helped MILF in rallying local support and continuing their struggle. Addressing these grievances was key for the MILF in lifting its standing, both with the local people as its image of a legitimate benefactor and trustworthy party grew, and with the government as a party with staying power. Also, by lowering grievances such as the level of violence and discrimination, mutual distrust could be overcome. This was significant for reaching a peace deal.

3.4.2. Spoilers

Stedman (1997) distinguishes between internal and external spoilers (Stedman, 1997). Spoilers exist only in the context of a peace process, which they want to undermine. Stedman divides spoilers in three types: limited, greedy and total. The limited spoiler seeks tangible and smaller objectives. The greedy spoiler makes a cost/benefit analysis whether there is a possibility to profit from spoiling behavior. The total spoiler has all-or –nothing terms and refuses any compromise (Stedman, 1997).

One can argue that internal spoilers (commanders inside the MILF who commit violent acts) are negative as they erode the credibility of a partner to negotiate. This is also important when it comes to enforcing an agreement. The AHJAG mechanism is a combined effort of the negotiating parties to prevent such spoilers, from bandits, JI and ASG/foreign jihadi groups. On the other hand,

114 whereas outright violent actions are a clear spoiler, the threat of violence has been an important pillar under the MILF strategy. This has been a balancing act throughout the peace process.

For the GRP, politics oftentimes presented itself as an inside spoiler. Congressional approval has been a fictive bomb under the peace process, and so has a potential ruling from the Supreme Court. This became apparent after the MOA-AD, when internal opposition was exceptionally strong within the state. For the GRP, this became an important lesson. The MILF had already drawn this lesson from the splintering within the MNLF after it had signed the FPA. Because of its grassroots structure, it had continuously engaged with its members and supporters to get an adequate mandate. The MILF organized consultative conferences and engaged with the population through its shadow government. However, both parties did not engage external spoilers.

The US government presented itself in two ways. First, due to its black and white frame of “you’re either with us or against us” in the war on terror, cooperation with MILF became increasingly difficult for the GRP because the US linked the MILF to international terrorists. And second, the listing of the MILF as a foreign terrorist group would make any peace unattainable. However, the threat of a FTO listing was a credible threat to induce the MILF to cut its ties with terrorist groups. The latter meant that the MILF would no longer function as a custodian of these external spoilers, which decreased their ability to spoil. The MILF would be able to negotiate more freely after this. This is one of the policy options that Stedman also identified to limit spoiler influence (Stedman, 1997). The ASG, JI and other foreign jihadi fighters continued to play a spoiler role, but unlike in phase 1 and 2, these groups no longer caused the peace process to collapse. This was mainly because of steadfast leadership and a clear preference for a diplomatic strategy by both parties. Whereas terrorist groups did not derail the peace process in phase 3, a similar thing cannot be said of local politicians in the ARMM or leaders from minority groups. Because both the MILF and the Arroyo administration did nothing to consult these parties and take away their fears, virtually all parties that were left out of the peace process were against the MOA-AD. This group consisted of local Christian leaders (who petitioned the Supreme Court), the MNLF, some local Muslim leaders and the Lumad population. Any implementation of a deal would be much more difficult with their disapproval. This was a clear lesson learned as all groups were consulted in the final peace settlement.

In summary, spoilers play an important role in the GRP-MILF peace process. Only when violence related spoilers were removed by joint coordination (AHJAG) and international monitoring (IMT) or the severing of ties (MILF-Al-Qaeda affiliates), the road to a peace settlement was opened again. Also, limited spoilers may develop when they are not consulted and their concerns taken into account.

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3.4.3. Negotiation strategies and tactics

In this category, it is important to distinguish between strategies and tactics. The strategy is the grand scheme of how a party wants to accomplish his end goal through negotiations. Tactics refer to certain methods of- or maneuvers in diplomacy to get the most desirable outcome (see section 1.3.4.4.).

The strategy of the MILF was mostly consistent throughout the phases. However, some changes occurred in phases two and four. The grand strategy since the 1980s was based on four pillars: Islamization, military build-up, organizational build-up and self-reliance (Jubair, 1999). Self- reliance, organizational build-up and Islamization came together in the shadow government structure which centered on the sovereign camp areas. Military build-up was based on its grassroots structure and recruitment in local villages, and the connection to the global jihadi network. Islamization was also influenced by the latter. For the MILF, diplomacy was another way of fighting the struggle. Both military strategy and diplomacy were intricately related, because the MILF negotiation strategy required a position of strength and credible deterrence. The group relied on both a diplomatic path and a military path. Within this military path, the group had to choose whether to remain a part, at least overtly, of the global jihadi network when a credible threat of FTO- listing was made. The FTO listing would undermine its primary goal, recognition and legitimacy of their secessionist struggle. The MILF chose to cut ties and cooperate with the AFP under AHJAG in 2005. Within the diplomatic path, two shifts occurred. After Estrada had reneged on all former agreements and had declared all-out war (March 2000, section 2.3.1.), the MILF needed to seek international protection. International involvement would make it harder for the GRP to renege on previous agreements and would provide an excellent stage for the MILF to communicate its views to the world. The second shift came after the Kato split (July-August 2008, section 2.5.1.). Because of failed reconciliation attempts, the MILF leadership had to distance itself from the BIFF. Because a new, more radical generation came up, and popular support somewhat dwindled, two steps were taken. The first was a firmer commitment to the diplomatic path, and two, the relinquishment of its official independence goal under the leadership of Murad. These were factors that contributed to peace.

The GRP had different strategies during the different presidencies. These ranged from a total military victory to a diplomatic convergence strategy of the three major issues in Mindanao. All administrations had in common that peace would be desirable for economic development of the

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Philippines and the presidential prestige. In this respect an autonomous region was a good outcome, provided that the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the Philippine state would be untouched. Also, all administrations wanted to get a deal which did not need any constitutional amendment.

Fidel Ramos thought he could deal with the MILF in the same way as he did with the MNLF. He therefore offered a proposal like the FPA with some minor changes. Naturally, this was rejected by the MILF. Why else would they have fiercely resisted the FPA? Estrada continued most of Ramos’ his policy until he decided, forced by terrorist attacks and bloody violations of the ceasefire, that military force was the only viable policy solution. Although this significantly harmed the MILF, this did not work, as the MILF went underground and dispersed. Arroyo changed to an all-out peace, and adopted a more comprehensive approach. She identified four paths: military, diplomatic, cultural and economic (Ressa, 2003). Overall, only the military part gained some success, although endorsed by AHJAG, a diplomatic tool. By separating the MILF from JI and ASG, both the group and the state had gained considerably more freedom to negotiate on non-military affairs. On the diplomatic track, her administration failed to deliver. This was due to many internal and external pressures (conservatives, dissatisfied military commanders, people power revolution and the communist insurgency). The MOA-AD completely misfired. Where this should have sealed her success in reaching peace, it failed and became a clear MILF victory instead. Moreover, because the administration had not consulted important stakeholders, the breakdown of the MOA-AD led to a lot of chaos. On culture, Arroyo’s frame of the war on terror only worsened antagonism. Economically, poverty levels in the ARMM rose. Aquino applied a different strategy, focusing on inclusiveness. His convergence strategy of 1) the MILF peace process, 2) the MNLF review process and 3) engaging with local stakeholders in the ARMM, paid off. It worked to create trust and limit the influence of spoilers on the peace process. So what tactics did the parties use?

First, we can distinguish between official and unofficial negotiations. Official negotiations give the group a degree of recognition and legitimacy. The MILF managed to force the government to engage with them on an official level because of their popular support base and military strength. This can fast-track the negotiations to a more substantive and serious level. Already during the Ramos administration, this produced the Coordination Committee on the Cessation of Hostilities (CCCH). Unofficial contacts, or back-channel diplomacy, were used throughout the phases. These were necessary to manage expectations or search for opportunities to restart the negotiations.

Second, there are the different tracks of diplomacy that the parties can use. Some differences can be discerned. From the third phase onwards, when international involvement also increased, more grassroots diplomacy was undertaken. Until then, the parties had mostly held

117 exploratory talks and official meetings. The grassroots diplomacy proved useful to increase the links between the parties and build mutual understanding and validation (Mastura, 2015). Within track one, there are some differences between the administrations. For example, the amount of changes in the peace panel and whether leaders used their personal leverage to fast track the peace process. The literature is divided on the latter, some arguing that leadership is necessary at tough moments (Ramsbotham, Woodhouse & Miall, 2011; Cronin, 2009), and others, such as Powell (2014), that leadership engagement can have ambiguous effects. Powell argues that leaders often think they can force a breakthrough, either by engaging in summitry or by making threats and deadlines (Powell, 2014). With Estrada, who put down a strict deadline, and threatened with military action, this did not work. The deadline was too artificial and could be easily ignored by the MILF. Aquino though, engaged in summitry by meeting Murad in Tokyo on the fifth of August 2011. This meeting had a more pressing invisible deadline. Both leaders knew that if they did not agree, the situation would deteriorate. Aquino managed to make a push at a decisive moment. This is a clear example illustrating that the way leadership is timed and implemented is crucial to its success.

Third, there are different tactical maneuvers which the parties have used. In the beginning, mainly because of low levels of trust and bigger internal pressures, both in the group and state, negotiations were mostly used as a moment to regroup, or to divide the opponent. On the latter issue, only the Aquino administration wanted to include all stakeholders and increase unity. The troop movements around the frontline at the Buliok complex, Buldon or camp Abu Bakar caused continuous suspicion. Until 2005, diplomatic efforts were mainly made to serve the military cause. An exception holds for the recognition of the camps at the end of the 1990s, which had clear political purpose. A maneuver which was made was the ‘departing train tactic’. Both the MILF and GRP engaged other stakeholders in the fourth phase to commit to the peace process, by making clear that this would be the main vehicle for change in the Bangsamoro. Rejecting participation or actively spoiling the process would certainly fail and leave them empty-handed.

Finally, there are ways of influencing the process. Both Estrada and Arroyo aimed at reaching a fast, comprehensive deal within their term. This had several reasons, for example the internal political pressures that kept looming over the peace process. Ceasefires could collapse so the time- frame for reaching a deal was perceived as short. Also, to ensure implementation of the deal within a single presidential term, the time-frame was shorter. The Aquino administration chose to take smaller steps. This was good for confidence-building, and the intermediate agreements were less vulnerable to legal proceedings and other types of spoiling. The MILF also preferred this strategy. The group aimed at making small, but irreversible steps in their secessionist struggle. Only in phase three, when the quite comprehensive and detailed MOA-AD, was so favorable to the group, they deviated

118 from this. When the MOA-AD was cast down, it proved a valuable lesson and the MILF went back to the policy of smaller steps. The FAB is a good example. Since it consists of more principled agreements and less detail, it was less vulnerable. During the follow-up phase, technical negotiations were less likely to be spoiled. Consequently, in this case, smaller steps proved successful. The frames that parties use are another factor of importance. The war on terror frame that Arroyo adopted was considerably less trustworthy for the MILF than the Aquino frame of national healing and reconciliation. Similarly, the frame of a duty for every Muslim to engage in jihad that Hashim Salamat used was less trustworthy than the more moderate frame, emphasizing the importance of peace, of Murad.

In summary, negotiation strategies and tactics have been used with varying success. The willingness of both parties to compromise (GRP: granting far-reaching autonomy; MILF: relinquishing independence goal and associative relationship), grass roots diplomacy and small step strategy have been positive factors in this respect. In this respect, the effect of different leaders both for the GRP (different presidents) and MILF (Hashim Salamat to Murad) has been crucial, as these often signaled policy changes.

3.4.4. Protracted social conflict

Azar’s protracted social conflict theory is a comprehensive theory on protracted domestic conflict, such as the Moro struggle. Many things that Azar has emphasized have already been mentioned under the greed and grievances section. His emphasis on the role of communities is a valuable addition though, as are the process dynamics. In short Azar lists four preconditions for an escalation of conflict:

 Communal discontent  Deprivation of basic needs  Degree of state failure  International linkages

These preconditions were all fulfilled throughout the conflict but to a different degree. Locally, communities engaged in rido conflicts because of economic failure, parallel legal systems, antagonism and state failure (especially in the governance of land titles). The international dimensions, the war on terror and globalization, played out in diverse ways. Islamization, westernization, digitalization, illegal migration and smuggling were all factors of importance in changing communities. Their effects had to be addressed by the government and the MILF. Three

119 things were crucial to this, bringing development, reducing interethnic tensions and cooperation in law-enforcement. Under Aquino, this was done most successfully. His administration adopted a more positive frame, engaged development together with the MILF and had the best record on reducing the often arbitrary, violence in Mindanao.

Azar points to process dynamics which determine how the preconditions are addressed and what outcomes they produce. He lists state strategies, communal strategies and built-in mechanisms (Azar, 1990). On the first two, an elaboration was given in the previous section. With built-in mechanisms, Azar points to the security dilemma and greed (see section 3.4.1. greed/grievance). The security dilemma consists of a dilemma which forces parties to think the worst of their opponents. In the case of the GRP-MILF conflict this was overcome by three factors: international monitoring, the establishment of AHJAG and other confidence-building measures, and limiting the influence of spoilers. Clearly, all these factors were best addressed in the fourth phase.

In summary, Azar’s theory is useful for understanding the Moro case. His preconditions apply and take a different shape throughout the conflict. This is done through the process dynamics, which have similarly changed because of internationalization or internal developments within the state and the group, for example a change of leadership.

3.5 Conclusions

How did the MILF transition to a political process by signing the 2014 Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro with Government of the Republic of the Philippines? This is the main question for this research. To assess this, it was necessary to study the causes and motivations driving the conflict. The causes could be traced back to the sixteenth century, when conflict between the Moros and Spanish conquistadors erupted. Since then, throughout the history of the Moro people, the Moros have been victim to injustices. These grievances manifested itself in different ways: the dispossession of land, economic underdevelopment, cultural erosion in a Philippine unitary state, discrimination as secondary citizens and secularism. The main reason why the MILF could continue the Moro struggle after the MNLF had agreed to peace, was the continuance of these grievances. The FPA did not address any of these factors in a meaningful way. Both the SZOPAD region, and later the ARMM, became a failure. Mainly because of its lack of powers in areas such as taxing, law and justice and social-welfare systems, the ARMM governor became a puppet of Manila. Throughout the conflict, the ARMM remained an area of corruption and warlordism, especially after 2001. These failures effectively legitimized the MILF struggle. The MILF could rally the Moro people,

120 divided in 13 tribes, along the lines of a distinct Bangsamoro identity based on Islam. As it turned out admitting the MILF legitimacy was the first step to peace.

An acknowledgment by the government that the MILF was here to stay, opened up the possibility of negotiations. However, when negotiations start, it is important that they are not just used for tactical purposes. The lack of mutual trust or to obtain a better bargaining position is crucial in this respect. For the MILF and the GRP, this was exacerbated by two developments. The MILF went underground after its camps had been overrun in the 2000 all-out war. The domestic Moro secessionist struggle became a part of the global war on terror. On the one hand there was the MILF connection to the global jihadi network, with organizations as Al-Qaeda and JI. On the other, there was the alliance between the GRP and the US. Militarization and internationalization of the conflict was detrimental to any peace, and served as a clear spoiler. The parties had to overcome this, because it did not serve their main goals and long-term strategies. The MILF wanted to increase their standing as a legitimate party by governing swaths of lands concentrated around their camps. All Presidents of the GRP saw the conflict as undermining the economic development of the Philippines.

Several things caused a breakthrough. A successful lobby from the Arroyo administration to keep the MILF from the FTO list, the creation of the AHJAG mechanism and international monitoring of the ceasefire. The threat of an FTO-listing, and the criminalization of the MILF top branch after the Davao bombing, moved the group towards a strategy change. The MILF project of recognition of its legitimacy to address the Bangsamoro grievances would be endangered by continuing terrorist affiliations. Under AHJAG, ties with terrorist groups were cut and ceasefires could be better implemented. The role of the International Monitoring Group, headed by Malaysia, was important in this. Separating the radical terrorist elements from the more moderate rebels and international oversight was crucial for moving on to substantive and serious negotiations.

Within the negotiation process, two questions are relevant for their success: how and under what conditions? On the former, it is clear that small steps worked better than comprehensive deals. Smaller steps can create confidence and decrease the vulnerability of agreements against legal proceedings. This becomes clear with the MOA-AD failure, and FAB success. Also, a convergence or inclusive strategy works better than a divisive and exclusive strategy. Consultation with stakeholders, especially on a local level, prevented spoiler behavior with the FAB. The role of leadership is also important. Leaders can suppress internal spoiler behavior, create mutual trust by using a frame of reconciliation and push the peace process out of a deadlock. Aquino and Murad both proved this. Finally, a clear projection of the benefits of peace should be in place. Despite the fact that the ARMM never meaningfully developed economically, a period of stability could already prove beneficial.

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The following conditions appeared to be favorable to peace. A stalemate that was not satisfactory for both parties and which they believed could only be changed by politics. For Aquino, peace was a political promise, and every day the end of his term would come closer without progress, was disadvantageous. For Murad, the evolvement of a new radical generation, and the somewhat decreasing level of outright public support, was similarly disadvantageous. Another element was that international involvement in the diplomatic process was further institutionalized with the International Contact Group. This facilitated more mutual understanding. And finally, the power of potential spoilers was limited because of two things: successful military operations against ASG and JI, and a clear mandate won at the elections for Aquino.

In conclusion, the conditions in which the negotiations were held, taking into account local, national and international actors into account, were important. Furthermore, the strategies of the parties had a certain preference for the diplomatic path. And lastly, while conducting negotiations, an inclusive and small-step process worked best to avoid spoilers from breaking up the peace process.

3.6 Recommendations

The case of the MILF-GRP contains a number of learnings for policy-makers:

On starting a viable negotiation process

 Acknowledge the legitimate grievances of a group with mass support  Acknowledge that a diplomatic strategy is preferable to a military strategy for a large group  Separate the moderate core from the radical wing within the group  Make sure that international- or third party actors are present to monitor the process

On creating favorable conditions during the process

 Concerning internal spoilers: depoliticize their concerns, for example by addressing them in technical work groups.  Concerning external spoilers: limiting the influence of all-or-nothing spoilers is often a matter of law-enforcement operations. Engage limited spoilers through political/economic carrots  Address all root causes: economic (stimulate real development during negotiations), cultural and political.

On how to negotiate

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 Step-by-step agreements work better to solidify gains and limit spoiling  Consult all stakeholders  Use a positive frame  Make clear projections of the peace dividend

3.7 Reflection

In reflecting on the research process applied for this thesis, I would like to discuss three things: the use of a framework of lenses, the potential of interviews and –more in general- the value of in-depth case study research.

The application of the different lenses (context, state and group) was instrumental in separating certain dimensions of conflict. Different geographical scopes (international, national, local) produced distinctive dimensions. At the international level, there is a dimension of the war on terror and the global jihadi network. On a national level, there is a dimension of the war against insurgencies (communist and Moro). On a local level, one dimension is the rido related conflicts, while another is the battle between competing governance systems between the MILF and the GRP. It was instrumental to understand these perceptions. By applying the framework of lenses, it was easier to separate the dimensions and understand the factors of importance within them. Moreover, the connections between different dimensions are better comprehensible. The framework also had a downside. Sometimes it was hard to clearly separate between the lenses. When addressing one lens, the clarity of the storyline frequently obliged me to transgress these framework boundaries. For this reason some of the text about national development and the state, or local development and the group are overlapping. This was also true for the agreements between the state and the group. It is difficult to not repeat certain stories from a different perspective. However, in reflection, this presents only a limited downside versus the clarity obtained by using the different lenses.

The work presented in this thesis is not based on interviews. However, this needs not be a drawback as a number of books were used that were based on first hand experiences and interviews (examples are Ressa (2003), Abuza (2003), McKenna (1998)). Also, the many ICG reports used are based on interviews with Philippine people.

The case study method was highly interesting. In my personal opinion the Moro case stands out not only because it covers decades of armed conflicts and negotiations, but also because it has both national and international dimensions. Of course, this also complicated matters as the amount of publications on the Moro case is huge. For this study many books and publications were studied

123 that allowed me to obtain a deep level of understanding of this conflict. This specifically holds true for the importance of negotiations and elimination of spoilers.

Thijmen Robert Hamer, June 2016.

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Annex

Map of the Mindanao mainland, the Sulu archipelago and the island of Palawan. The darker parts are where there is a high concentration of Muslims. In the darker parts on Mindanao, comprising of Lanao del Sur, Lanao del Norte, Manguindanao and North Cotabato, three of the four most powerful tribes of the Moros can be found: the Maranao (7), the Iranun (8) and the Manguidanao (9). Another important tribe is the Tausug (4) tribe, which come from Jolo, Sulu.

Source: Gomez (2000)

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