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Etihad Etisalat (Mobily) STRONG Etihad Etisalat (Mobily) Initiating Coverage STRONG BUY April 25th, 2007 Current Price (AED) 51.75 Target Price (AED) 78.00 Investment Highlights 1-year Total Return 51% Company Data • We are initiating coverage on Etihad Etisalat (Mobily) with a Strong Buy recommendation and a one year target price of SAR 78. We believe that the market has incorrectly priced the growth Country KSA potential of Mobily and therefore believe that the stock is significantly undervalued. We arrive Sector Telecom at our target price of SAR 78 based on a peer analysis of price-to-earnings-to-growth (PEG) Exchange TASI ratios. Shares Outstanding (mn) 500 Market Cap (mn) SAR 25,875 • Mobily is trading at 15.4x’s trailing and 14x’s 2007 EV/EBITDA, and 28x’s trailing and 25x’s Net Debt (mn) SAR 9,414 2007 forecasted earnings. Enterprise Value (mn) AED 35,289 • Mobily entered the Saudi mobile market in 2005 as the second provider of mobile services in the Kingdom. The company’s success to date has been exceptional, capturing over 30% of the Stock Data mobile market while posting positive net income in 2006. 52 Week High SAR 101.25 • We expect Mobily’s success to continue in the near future. Mobile penetration in the Kingdom 52 Week Low SAR 38.00 currently stands at 81% which is considerably lower than other GCC countries providing a Yield N/A growing market for operators. This will allow Mobily to continue to grow revenues and profit- Beta vs. ADSMI 1.18 ability in spite of increasing levels of competition (entrance of Mobile Telecommunications Co Bloomberg EEC AB (MTC) into the Saudi mobile market). We forecast revenue and profitability to slow in 2009 and onwards as mobile penetration in the Kingdom approaches saturation and new competition gains a foothold in the market place. • Mobily has applied to the Saudi Capital Market Authority to issue an additional 166 million shares through a secondary offering. We have included this dilution event in our forecast and Performance—Past Twelve Months while we anticipate this to be a successful offering we have concerns about how the capital will be used. 110 7 100 • The most notable risks in our one year target price include: continued deterioration in overall 6 90 equity market sentiment in Saudi; Mobily capturing significantly less market share and experi- 80 5 70 4 encing a larger decline in ARPU than our forecast as a result of increasing competition. 60 Price 3 50 Volume (mn) Volume 40 2 30 1 20 Financial Highlights 10 0 Apr-06 Jun-06 Aug-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Mar-07 Year End as of December 31st (SAR mn) 2006A LTM 2007E 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E Revenue 6,183 6,933 8,332 10,827 12,138 12,772 13,291 Revenue Growth 268.0% NA 34.7% 29.9% 12.1% 5.2% 4.1% EBITDA 2,125 2,286 2,508 4,082 4,962 5,411 5,640 EBITDA Margin 34.4% 33.0% 30.1% 37.7% 40.9% 42.4% 42.4% EBITDA Growth N/A NA 18.1% 62.8% 21.5% 9.0% 4.2% Net Income 700 913 1,371 2,983 3,930 4,440 4,763 Net Income Margin 11.3% 13.2% 16.5% 27.5% 32.4% 34.8% 35.8% Net Income Growth N/A NA 95.7% 117.6% 31.8% 13.0% 7.3% EPS 1.40 1.83 2.06 4.47 5.90 6.66 7.14 Darren K Smith, CFA EPS Growth N/A NA 46.8% 117.6% 31.8% 13.0% 7.3% Vice President [email protected] Dividend Per Share - - - - 1.80 1.80 1.80 Payout Ratio 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30.5% 27.0% 25.2% Munira Mukadam Business Analyst Net Debt 8,892 9,414 149 - - - - [email protected] Book Value 4,533 4,784 14,570 17,553 20,283 23,524 27,086 Book Value Per Share 9.1 9.6 21.9 26.3 30.4 35.3 40.6 Justin Tantalo Business Analyst Va lua tion [email protected] EV/Revenue 5.7 5.1 4.2 3.3 2.9 2.8 2.7 EV/EBITDA 16.6 15.4 14.1 8.6 7.1 6.5 6.3 Contact Us P/E 36.9 28.3 25.2 11.6 8.8 7.8 7.2 Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% Gulf Capital Group Dubai International Financial Centre PB 5.7 5.4 2.4 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.3 Dubai, United Arab Emirates ROE 15.5% 19.1% 9.4% 17.0% 19.4% 18.9% 17.6% Tel: +971 4 363 5730 Fax: +971 4 363 5739 NOTES: EPS data is based on outstanding shares as per calendar year end. Forecasted per share data as sumes that Mobily is successful in their planned issuance of 166 million s hares Gulf Capital Group does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should not consider this report as the only factor in making their investment decisions. TABLE OF CONTENTS FORECAST AND FINANCIAL OVERVIEW.........................................................................................................1 Revenues .........................................................................................................................................................1 Fixed Line Expansion – A Failed Attempt ....................................................................................................6 EBITDA ..........................................................................................................................................................6 Net Income ......................................................................................................................................................7 Capital Spending ............................................................................................................................................9 Show me the Money .......................................................................................................................................9 THE ROAD AHEAD .................................................................................................................................................11 Two’s Company, Three’s a Crowd ...............................................................................................................11 An Expensive Deal .......................................................................................................................................11 VALUATION .............................................................................................................................................................13 PEG Ratio Analysis ......................................................................................................................................13 Relative Value – Market Share vs. Market Cap ..........................................................................................15 Traditional Multiples Analysis .....................................................................................................................16 Free Cash Flow Calculation ........................................................................................................................16 Weighted Average Cost of Capital ...............................................................................................................17 Discounted Cash Flow Analysis ...................................................................................................................18 Sensitivity Analysis – Discounted Cash Flow ..............................................................................................18 FINANCIALS ............................................................................................................................................................21 APPENDIX A: COMPANY OVERVIEW ..............................................................................................................22 Board of Directors ........................................................................................................................................22 The story to date ...........................................................................................................................................23 Network Coverage ........................................................................................................................................23 Current Operations .......................................................................................................................................24 End of the monopoly ....................................................................................................................................24 Moving Forward ...........................................................................................................................................25 Financial Highlights ....................................................................................................................................26 Recent Financings ........................................................................................................................................26 APPENDIX B: MENA MOBILE TELECOMMUNICATIONS OVERVIEW ...................................................28 Liberalization in the MENA region .............................................................................................................28 MENA Mobile Operators .............................................................................................................................29 A Changing Landscape ................................................................................................................................30 MENA Mobile Penetration ..........................................................................................................................31 Subscriber Growth Remains Strong ............................................................................................................31
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