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Econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics van de Sand, Isabel Research Report Assessing vulnerability to climate variability and change: participatory assessment approach and Kenyan case study Studies, No. 65 Provided in Cooperation with: German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE), Bonn Suggested Citation: van de Sand, Isabel (2012) : Assessing vulnerability to climate variability and change: participatory assessment approach and Kenyan case study, Studies, No. 65, ISBN 978-3-88985-502-2, Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE), Bonn This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/199190 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Change Participatory assessment approach and Kenyan case study Isabel van de Sand 12-5571_Studie_65_10 09.08.12 10:23 Seite 1 Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Change 12-5571_Studie_65_10 09.08.12 10:23 Seite 2 German Development Institute (DIE) The German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) is a multidisciplinary research, consultancy and training institute for Germany’s bilateral and for multilateral development cooperation. On the basis of independent research, it acts as consultant to public institutions in Germany and abroad on current issues of cooperation between developed and developing countries. Through its 9-months training course, the German Development Institute prepares German and European university graduates for a career in the field of development policy. Isabel van de Sand is a researcher in the department for Environmental Policy and Management of Natural Resources at the German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) in Bonn, Germany. Her main fields of interest are adaptation to climate change and payments for ecosystem serv- ices. The work presented in this study was conducted in collaboration with the World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF), Nairobi, Kenya, where Isabel had been attached to as a research fellow during the period of this research. Before joining DIE in 2008, she worked as a research fellow in the Research Group on Material Flows and Resource Management at the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environ- ment and Energy in Wuppertal, Germany. Isabel van de Sand obtained a BSc in Environment, Economics and Ecology from the University of York, UK; an MSc in Environmental Technology from Imperial College London, UK; and is a PhD Can- didate at the Carl von Ossietzky University Oldenburg, Germany. E-Mail: [email protected] 12-5571_Studie_65_10 09.08.12 10:23 Seite 3 Studies Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik 65 Assessing vulnerability to climate variability and change Participatory assessment approach and Kenyan case study Isabel van de Sand Bonn 2012 12-5571_Studie_65_10 09.08.12 10:23 Seite 4 Studies / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik ISSN 1860-0468 Die deutsche Nationalbibliothek verzeichnet diese Publikation in der Deutschen Nationalbibliografie; detaillierte bibliografische Daten sind im Internet über http://dnb.d-nb.de abrufbar. The Deutsche Nationalbibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliografie; detailed bibliographic data is available in the Internet at http://dnb.d-nb.de ISBN 978-3-88985-502-2 © Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik gGmbH Tulpenfeld 6, 53113 Bonn " +49 (0)228 94927-0 ! +49 (0)228 94927-130 E-Mail: [email protected] http://www.die-gdi.de 12-5571_Studie_65_10 09.08.12 10:23 Seite 5 Acknowledgements This study was funded by the “climate change and development” project commissioned to the German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) by the Federal Ministry for Economic Coopera- tion and Development (BMZ). The field research was carried out in collab- oration with the PRESA – Pro-poor Rewards for Environmental Services in Africa – project implemented by the World Agroforestry Centre (ICRAF). I am extremely grateful for the logistical support provided by ICRAF dur- ing my field research in Kenya and for the many interesting discussions held with and input received from various members of the ICRAF staff and especially of the PRESA team. In particular, I would like to thank John K. Mwangi for providing access to meteorological data. I am very grateful to my supervisors at DIE, Dr Imme Scholz; ICRAF, Dr Frank Place and Dr Brent Swallow and at the University of Oldenburg, Prof Dr Bernd Siebenhüner for their continuous support throughout the period of this research. I would also like to thank my colleagues Dr Ines Dom- browsky, Dr Imme Scholz and Dr Chinwe Ifejika Speranza at DIE as well as Dr Frank Place at ICRAF for commenting on an earlier draft, which greatly helped to improve this version of the study. Special thanks also go to Sammy Mbage Wanyeki and my research assis- tants in Kenya: Esther Wanjiku Gathitu, Wilson Ngutho Njuguna, Josphat Thuo, Joseph Maina Wanyoike, Stanley Mbugua Mbage, Peter Muturi Ndugire Kiruri, Patrick Kihara Mwangi and David Kimani Mathenge for their invaluable support. Finally, I want to thank all the farmers in Sasumua watershed and all the dis- trict officers of Nyandarua South District, who so generously shared their time and invaluable knowledge in taking part in the workshops. 12-5571_Studie_65_10 09.08.12 10:23 Seite 6 12-5571_Studie_65_10 09.08.12 10:23 Seite 7 Contents Executive Summary 1 1 Introduction 7 2 The concepts of vulnerability, adaptive capacity and adaptation 8 2.1 Definitions and historic evolution of the concept of vulnerability 9 2.2 Definitions and historic evolution of the concept of adaptive capacity 18 2.3 Definitions and historic evolution of the concept of adaptation 19 2.4 Relationship between vulnerability, adaptation and adaptive capacity 23 2.5 Conceptualization and operationalization of vulnerability, adaptation and adaptive capacity for the purpose of this research 25 3 Method: Participatory Vulnerability Assessments 28 4 Case study description 35 4.1 Geographical location and hydrological importance of Sasumua watershed 35 4.2 Historical overview on past developments in the watershed 37 4.2.1 Sasumua watershed under British colonialism and during the Mau Mau war 37 4.2.2 Sasumua watershed in the aftermath of independence 39 4.3 Farmers’ account of changing trends 41 12-5571_Studie_65_10 09.08.12 10:23 Seite 8 5 Results from participatory vulnerability assessment 43 5.1 Exposure to past and current climate related trends and stresses 43 5.2 Current sensitivity 46 5.3 Coping and adaptation strategies 51 5.3.1 Coping strategies to deal with climate related stresses 51 5.3.2 Adaptation strategies to deal with changing trends in temperature and rainfall 54 5.4 Future exposure to climate related stress and adaptation options 55 5.5 Adaptive capacity 55 5.5.1 Aggregate scores of adaptive capacity 58 5.5.2 Scores of individual indicators 62 5.6 Implementation of adaptation 65 5.6.1 Recognition of the need for adaptation 65 5.6.2 The belief that adaptation is possible and desirable 69 5.6.3 Willingness to implement coping and adaptation strategies 70 5.6.4 Adaptation options 71 5.6.4.1 Options identified by farmers to increase the determinants of adaptive capacity 71 5.6.4.2 Options identified by district government officials to increase the determinants of adaptive capacity 72 5.6.4.3 Implementing adaptation options 73 6 Discussion and conclusions 75 Bibliography 81 12-5571_Studie_65_10 09.08.12 10:23 Seite 9 Annexes Table A 1: Impact of climate variability and extremes 93 Table A 2: Coping strategies currently implemented 100 Table A 3: Coping strategies used in the past that are not used anymore 107 Table A 4: Coping strategies not yet implemented 108 Table A 5: Rating of adaptive capacity for climate variability 114 Table A 6: Rating of adaptive capacity for drought 117 Table A 7: Rating of adaptive capacity for floods 120 Table A 8: Results of pair-wise problem ranking Kwaharaka 124 Table A 9: Results of pair-wise problem ranking Kinamba 125 Table A 10: Results of pair-wise problem ranking Njabini 126 Table A 11: Results of pair-wise problem ranking Sasumua Churiri 127 Table A 12: Results of pair-wise problem ranking Sasumua Kiamweri 128 Table A 13: Results of Mann-Kendall test for monthly rainfall 129 Table A 14: Results of Mann-Kendall test for number of rain days (>0.1mm) per month 130 Table A
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