BILATERALNI ODNOSI BOSNE I HERCEGOVINE I SRBIJE-en1_Layout 1 6/5/13 7:56 AM Page 1 PolicyPolicy Analysisanalysis 3 1 / 1 s i s y l a n A Analysis 3/13 Analysis PolicyPolicy Analysisanalysis BRegionalilateral R eReconnectionlations Betwee n- Bosnia athend HNewerze Paradigmgovina and Serbia Focus on Serbian Foreign Policy toward BiH 3 1 0 2 y a M , o v e j a r a S Sarajevo, October 2013 Sarajevo, BILATERALNI ODNOSI BOSNE I HERCEGOVINE I SRBIJE-en1_Layout 1 6/5/13 7:56 AM Page 2 2 REGIONAL RECONNECTION - THE NEW PARADIGM 0 0 3 : n u r t n i r P n With the support of: g i s e D This Independent analysis has been prepared by the Foreign Policy h Initiative BH (FPI BH) with the financial support of the Friedrich Ebert c r Stiftung. The views expressed here are those of the Foreign Policy A : t Initiative BH and are not to be understood as in any way reflecting the n i views of Friedrich Ebert Stiftung. r p d n a P T DTP and print: Arch Designrun: 300 Print DTP Contact:
[email protected] www.vpi.ba D REGIONAL RECONNECTION - THE NEW PARADIGM 3 THE BALKAN FAMILY Introduction In late 2012, the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, Sarajevo Office, published a book on five possible scenarios of future developments in Bosnia and Herzegovina1. These scenarios, covering everything from dissolution of Bosnia and Herzegovina to its full centralization, also include a scenario entitled “Western Balkan Inter-City – Regional Reconnection”2. The scenario carries a latent but important message – that over the course of the last 20 years, “the Balkans proper” (in this case, the former Yugoslavia plus Albania), with its great-power nationalisms and wrong ideologies, has practically eaten up its very substance and, as such, is unlikely to join Europe, which during this time has developed and grown on entirely different premises.