Airport Role and Activity Forecasts

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AIRPORT ROLE

Present Arcata-Eureka Airport is one of nine, public-use airports in Hum- boldt County. The airport is an essential component of the transportation system for the greater Humboldt County Region. Ar- cata-Eureka Airport’s principal role is to serve as a base of operations for scheduled airline services. In this capacity, the airport is designated as a primary commercial airport in the Federal Aviation Administration’s National Plan of Integrated Airport Systems. This and other facets of the airport’s role are further described below.

! A Source of Scheduled Passenger and Cargo Service— Skywest and Horizon Airlines provide regularly scheduled commercial airline service between Arcata-Eureka Airport and Port- land, Sacramento, San Francisco, and Los Angeles International Airports. Several dedicated cargo companies (e.g., Federal Ex- press, United Parcel Service, AmeriFlight, and Union Flight) also operate out of Arcata-Eureka Airport on a daily basis. During major holidays, some of these cargo shippers utilize larger aircraft and provide additional flights to meet increased de- Humboldt Bay mand. This availability of flights to major connecting hubs and significant destination airports are of paramount importance to the citizens and businesses in the Humboldt County Region.

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Personal/recreational flying: the use of ! A Point of Air Access to the Community—Arcata-Eureka aircraft by individuals (in their own, rented, or borrowed aircraft) for pleasure, Airport is a means of accessing the Humboldt County Region recreational, or personal transportation for recreation and business. Recreational users include those to not in furtherance of their occupation or company business. whom flying is itself a form of recreation and those using aircraft to access places which are interesting and enjoyable to Business flying: the use of aircraft by pilots (not receiving direct salary or com- visit. As Arcata-Eureka Airport is the only airport in the Hum- pensation for piloting) in connection with boldt County Region providing commercial service, many busi- their occupation, their employer’s business, or in the furtherance of private nesses rely on the airport for the transportation of their goods business. and services. Corporate flying: the use of aircraft, ! owned or leased, and operated by a cor- Site for Emergency Access to the Community—Following poration or business firm, for the trans- calamities such as a major earthquake, fire, or flood, airports are portation of personnel or cargo in furtherance of the corporation’s or firm’s often of critical importance as points of community access for business, and which are flown by profes- emergency and relief services. In addition, when regional sional pilots receiving a direct salary or ground access routes (i.e., roads, highways, and rail lines) are compensation for piloting. severed by a disaster, transportation by air may be the only means of effectively moving about and deliver- ing supplies. It is essential that airport facilities remain operational or can quickly become operational after such events. In these emergency circumstances, airports often see use by aircraft that are larger than those normally accommodated. It is also vital that the airport have useable local ground access to the surrounding community. Having both the U.S. Coast Guard Search and Rescue Base and the Aircraft Res- Coast Guard Group / Air Station Humboldt Bay cue and Fire Fighting (A.R.F.F.) Base at the airport McKinleyville makes this operational role an important one for the Arcata-Eureka Airport.

! A Place to Conduct Business—An important role of Arcata- Eureka Airport is as a place of business. There are several businesses at Arcata-Eureka Airport, including three car rental services, as well as Skywest and Horizon Airlines, which provide passenger and freight services. Also present at the airport is the Federal Service Station, U.S. Coast Guard Search and Rescue Base, Aircraft Rescue and Fire Fighting Base, a restaurant, and the County’s Aviation Department. These businesses contrib- ute to the local economy through their payrolls and purchases of goods and services.

! A Base for Humboldt County Region Pilots—Nine aircraft are currently based at Arcata-Eureka Airport. One aircraft, a Falcon 50, is stored in the Kodiak hangar. There are also four piston aircraft parked on the tiedown apron. The four other aircraft are Coast Guard helicopters.

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Future The terrorist events of September 11, 2001, seriously affected the nation’s already weakened air transportation system. Earlier that year, the nation’s aviation industry was experiencing declines in passenger demand (e.g., domestic and international) primarily in response to a slowing economy. The events of September 11th acted as a catalyst for the sharp declines in air carrier activity and ensuing financial difficulties for the airline industry. While the events of September 11th did negatively impact many sectors of aviation, the smaller regional/commuter airliners continued to experience growth in enplanements in 2001. Although there are many uncertainties in predicting demand for aviation services, many experts (e.g., Federal Aviation Administra- tion, aviation analysts, etc.) anticipate that in the long-term the airline industry will recover and airports will once again experience growth in commercial and general aviation operations. For the foreseeable future, it is anticipated that the operational role of Arcata-Eureka Airport as a commercial airport will remain es- sentially the same as at present. The airport will continue to include significant use by scheduled passenger airliners, dedicated cargo aircraft, business/corporate general aviation aircraft, and personal general aviation aircraft. It is anticipated that with future development of the airport facilities that the airport will experience moder- ate growth over the long run. The future role of the airport will be defined not by the introduction of new uses, but by changes of the existing uses – changes in the volume of activity and the types of aircraft (i.e., fleet mix).

ISTORICAL IRPORT CTIVITY H A A Number of Year Enplaned Passengers Scheduled Passenger Enplanements 1990 68,868 1991 72,782 Enplaning passengers are those who board a departing aircraft 1992 77,492 from an airport providing commercial airline service. Arcata- 1993 66,627 1994 75,456 Eureka Airport has been the only airport in the Humboldt County 1995 86,992 Region to consistently offer scheduled passenger service for the 1996 90,710 past 20 years. 1997 95,274 1998 95,448 1999 101,982 The service area for airline service includes both Humboldt and 2000 100,238 Del Norte Counties. Direct service is offered from Arcata-Eureka 2001 100,976 2002 89,326 to Portland, Redding, Sacramento and San Francisco International 2003 91,397 Airports. Some northbound passengers originating in northern 2004 98,453

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Humboldt and Del Norte Counties drive to Medford (Oregon) to begin their flights. The adjacent table presents the total number of passengers enplaned in Humboldt County each year since 1990. Until the trag- edy of 9-11, Arcata-Eureka Airport had been experiencing growth in annual enplaned passengers averaging 10.3%. After a decline following 9-11, growth is once again occurring. Annual enplanements grew 2.3% in 2003 and 7.7% in 2004.

Enplaned Cargo

Annual Cargo Records for enplaned and deplaned cargo (including mail) are (Metric Tons) available for calendar years 2000 through 2004. The tonnage Year Enplane Deplane 2000 301 299 shown includes both scheduled airliners and the small-package 2001 299 472 shippers. Skywest (operating as United Express) ceased carrying 2002 236 373 cargo after 9-11. Horizon Airlines temporarily suspended trans- 2003 154 348 2004 322 399 port of cargo following 9-11, but subsequently resumed shipping. Arcata–Eureka Airport is served by a number of small-package cargo operations: Airborne Express (for Union Flights) West Air (for Fed Ex) Ameriflight (for Rapid Package, UPS, Consolidated Routing, and Golden State) Redding Aero (for UPS) The decline following the events of 9-11 appears to have been re- versed. Enplaned cargo in 2004 exceeded the tonnage shipped in year 2000. While deplaned cargo has not returned to pre 9-11 levels, it did show a vigorous 14% growth from year 2003 to 2004.

Commercial Fleet

Skywest Airlines Embraer 120 Skywest Airlines currently utilizes two types of aircraft: a 30-seat twin-engine, turboprop corporate aircraft (e.g., Brasilia EMB 120) and a 50-seat regional jet airliner (e.g., Bombardier CRJ 200). Ho- rizon Airlines flies a 70-seat regional turboprop airliner (e.g., Bom- bardier Dash 8, Q400 Series) and a regional jet airliner (e.g., Bom- bardier CRJ 200). Federal Express, one of the cargo shippers, flies a single-engine, turboprop aircraft (e.g., Cessna Caravan). Occa- sionally, Federal Express will utilize a larger aircraft during the bus- ier holidays (e.g., Christmas) to meet the temporary increase in de- Horizon Airlines Q400 mand.

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Commercial and General Aviation Activity The Arcata-Eureka Airport is currently a non-towered facility. As with nearly all non-towered airports, no comprehensive counts of aircraft operations are conducted at Arcata-Eureka Airport. There- fore, current operations are, of necessity, estimated. The only ac- tual counts available are those samples taken by the California De- partment of Transportation, Division of Aeronautics (DOA) staff. The Division of Aeronautics periodically estimates the number of operations at non-towered airports using data gathered by an acoustical aircraft counter. The Division of Aeronautics typically takes two-week samples during each quarter and uses these to estimate total operations for the year. The most recent year for which the Division of Aeronautics has prepared an estimate for Arcata-Eureka Airport is 2001. The 42-day sample period re- corded between September 1998 and June 2001 revealed an average of 93 daily operations. This equates to nearly 34,000 annual aircraft operations for 2001. To substantiate the DOA’s estimate, the flight schedules for the two airline service providers (e.g., Skywest and Horizon Airlines) were used to determine the approximate number of operations that their businesses generated annually. Additionally, input from regu- lar users, such as the flight school based at Murray Field, was used to determine their overall contribution to Arcata-Eureka Airport’s annual operations. Skywest and Horizon Airlines provide regularly scheduled commercial airline service at Arcata-Eureka Airport. Together, they offer 16 flights per day to Redding, Sacramento, San Francisco, Port- land, and Los Angeles International Airports. This amounts to nearly 12,000 annual air carrier operations. Arcata-Eureka Airport is also routinely utilized as a flight training facility by transient aircraft. According to the flight training school based at Murray Field, flight-training activity at Arcata-Eureka Air- port generates approximately 8,000 annual aircraft operations. If these known annual counts are combined, airport activity at Ar- cata-Eureka Airport amounts to approximately 20,000 annual aircraft operations for 2001. This total is lower than the DOA’s estimate. It is estimated that corporate/business general aviation aircraft, personal general aviation aircraft, and dedicated cargo aircraft operations make up the balance of the airport’s annual operations.

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However, due to the placement of the acoustical counters, most of the Coast Guard’s helicopter training operations at the airport were not captured. Based on input from Coast Guard staff, it is estimated that helicopter operations account for about 15,000 annual operations. Therefore, for the purposes of this Master Plan, Coast Guard operations are added to the state’s estimate for a count of 49,000 annual airport operations for Arcata-Eureka Airport in 2002.

Distribution of Airport Activity The historical distribution of operational activity (i.e., day/night, local/itinerant) is based on airport personnel estimates. Airport staff estimates that 90 percent of all aircraft operations occur during daylight hours (7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.). Evening operations (7:00 p.m. to 10:00 p.m.) account for 2 percent of total operations and nighttime operations (10:00 p.m. to 7:00 a.m.) account for 8 percent of total operations. Nighttime activity at Arcata-Eureka Airport is driven largely by airline service operations that occur in the early morning (between 5:00 a.m. and 7:00 a.m.). This pattern of usage is consistent with other commercial service/general aviation airports with similar facilities and services as Arcata-Eureka Airport. A relatively large portion (47%) of the airport’s total annual operations involve local or flight training operations. Most of this flight training activity is generated by the Coast Guard’s helicopter operations and the flight school based at Murray Field.

Based Aircraft Historically, only a small number of aircraft have been based at Ar- cata-Eureka Airport. Having few based general aviation aircraft is not uncommon for a commercial service airport such as Arcata- Eureka Airport. As noted above, five general aviation aircraft are currently based at the airport. The Coast Guard has four Aerospa- tiale Dauphin helicopters based at their facility adjacent to Arcata- Eureka Airport. Although technically not a part of the airport, Coast Guard operations are an integral part of the aeronautical role of the airport. Therefore it is appropriate to include the four Coast Guard’s helicopters in the airport’s based aircraft counts.

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Transient General Aviation Aircraft The number of transient aircraft parked at the airport remains relatively consistent throughout the year. Peaks occur during week- days as a result of business/corporate aircraft using the airport. Businesses such as Costco, PG&E, and several lumber companies regularly use the airport to transport goods and services in/out of the area. On weekends, personal/recreational aircraft are the pre- dominant users of the transient apron. Counts of transient aircraft usage of the airport are not routinely conducted. However, airport personnel estimate that between 5 and 12 transient aircraft are parked on the county apron during an average weekday/weekend.

Aviation Safety Record National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) records list only one accident as having occurred at Arcata-Eureka Airport during the last 10-year period from 1990 to 2000. Inadequate facility design and operational procedures were not cited as factors in the accident. The above accident was caused by pilot error/misjudgment.

AVIATION ACTIVITY FORECASTS In accordance with FAA guidelines, the time horizon of the forecasts in this Airport Master Plan is 20 years. However, many uncertainties facing the future of the commercial and general aviation industry make forecasting of airport activity an inexact science at best. The Master Plan forecasts of future aviation at Arcata- Eureka Airport are summarized in Table 2A, together with the estimates of current activity levels. Projections have been developed for annual passenger enplanements, air cargo volumes, general aviation aircraft operations, based aircraft, and transient aircraft parking. The methodology used in the development of Arcata- Eureka Airport’s aviation forecasts includes:

! Considering the previously described historical activity levels at Arcata-Eureka Airport;

! Assessing the national, state, and local trends and other factors which influence the airport’s activity; and then

! Drawing conclusions from these data.

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Current 5-Year 10-Year 20-Year 2004 2009 2014 2024

BASED AIRCRAFT Aircraft Types Single-Engine, Piston 4 6 8 15 Twin-Engine, Piston 0 2 3 5 Business/ Air Taxi Turbo-Prop 0 1 6 6 Business/Air Taxi Turbo-Jets 1 2 3 10 Helicopters (Coast Guard) 4 4 4 4 Total Aircraft 9 15 24 40 Storage Demand Apron 4 0 1 2 Hangar Space 5 15 23 38 Total Aircraft 9 15 24 40

TRANSIENT AIRCRAFT

Peak Daytime Parking Demand 10 12 13 15

ANNUAL AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS Aircraft Category and Type Air Carrier, Turbo-Prop 11,650 8,650 5,700 0 Air Carrier, Regional-Jet 0 3,000 6,000 11,650 General Aviation, Piston-Prop 17,000 17,400 17,600 18,200 Business/Air Taxi, Turbo-Prop 3,500 3,800 4,200 5,000 Business/Air Taxi, Turbo-Jet 350 850 1,400 2,300 Dedicated Air Cargo, Mixed Turbines 1,500 1,800 2,100 2,750 Coast Guard, Turbo-Helicopter 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 Total 49,000 50,500 52,000 55,000 Type of Operation Local (Touch-and-Goes) 23,000 23,250 23,500 24,000 Itinerant 26,000 27,250 28,500 31,000 Total 49,000 50,500 52,000 55,000 Annual Enplanements* Enplaned Passenger 98,453 112,000 133,000 167,000 Enplaned Cargo (metric tons) 321 350 450 600 Deplaned cargo (metric tons) 399 525 650 900 Total Cargo (metric tons) 720 875 1,100 1,500 *Number based on 2004 data.

Source: Mead & Hunt (September 2005)

Table 2A Master Plan Activity Forecasts Arcata-Eureka Airport

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Annual Passenger Activity Forecasts The number of commercial airline passengers enplaned in a given year is a function of several factors that are national and regional in character. Additionally, there are factors specific to Arcata-Eureka Airport including: ticket price, schedule, destinations offered, equipment flown, service area population, the local economy and travel alternatives. Each of these demand factors is discussed below. National Demand Factors The most concise source of data and forecasts on nationwide aviation activity is contained in the FAA’s Aerospace Forecasts published annually. The March 2002 edition covers Fiscal Years 2002 through 2013. The FAA uses numerous demand factors in forecasting aviation trends. These demand factors are part of what determines the growth rates of commercial aviation at a national level. The following national demand factors for commercial aviation operation were taken from the FAA Aerospace Forecasts, 2002- 2013:

! Total Annual Passenger Enplanements

! Total Active Fleet (Turboprops and Jets) Despite the impacts of September 11th on aviation, all of the above listed demand factors are expected to experience growth over the FAA’s 12-year forecast period. In terms of regional/commuter airline activity, total number of enplanements is forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 5.5 percent from 79.7 million in 2001 to 151.6 million in 2013. A rise in the total number of commuter passenger fleet is also anticipated. Regional/commuter aircraft are forecast to increase at an average annual rate of 5.2 percent from 2,427 in 2001 to 4,457 aircraft in 2013. The number of regional jets is anticipated to grow by 12.6 percent annually between 2001 and 2013. Conversely, the turboprop fleet is expected to decline by 0.8 percent within the same forecast period.

State and Regional Demand Factors Both the Federal Aviation Administration and the Division of Aeronautics (DOA) have prepared forecasts for enplanements at Arcata-Eureka Airport. The FAA includes enplanements forecasts for individual airports in its Terminal Area Forecasts. The January 2004 Terminal Area Forecast projects total passenger enplanements at Arcata-Eureka Airport to increase by an average of 2.9 percent per year, reaching 169,232 in 2015.

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The State’s California Aviation System Plan (CASP) also provides airline activity forecasts for Arcata-Eureka Airport. The CASP low forecast anticipates a 61 percent increase (2.4 percent annually) in annual enplaned passengers, reaching 177,600 in 2020. The high forecast indicates a 79 percent increase (3.0 percent annually) in annual enplanements over the 20-year forecast period. The CASP high forecast for 2020 is 208,700 annual enplanements.

Passenger Demand Conclusions The FAA’s January 2004 Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) anticipates a 3.3% average annual growth rate. This is slightly higher than the historical growth rate (3.1%). However, given the recent reintro- duction of jet service, growth rates are anticipated to be higher than the historical rates with exclusively turboprop service. Hori- zon’s announced introduction of direct service to southern Cali- fornia by Horizon Airlines in 2005 is also expected to boost the rate of growth. The addition of service to a new market area (southern California) is an indication that Arcata’s market area has grown to a point where there will be a break from past trends. It has passed a threshold where there will be both qualitative and quantitative improvements in passenger service. In recognition of this change, a growth rate higher than past trends has been selected (3.5%). With this growth rate, the forecast is slightly more than 9% higher than the TAF in the fifth forecast year, and 14% in the tenth forecast year. At this forecast rate of growth, annual passenger enplanements will grow to 167,000 by 2024.

Air Cargo Forecasts The FAA has developed national forecasts for air cargo activity in their annual published document Aerospace Forecasts 2004-2015. The plan indicates that domestic cargo volumes (i.e., route ton miles) will increase 5.5% annually as a result of the new security re- strictions for transporting cargo on passenger aircraft and from increased demand for expedited service. Applying the FAA’s domestic growth rate to the current volume results in a 20-year forecast of 1,500 metric tons. This is slightly more than double the most recent year. Enplaned cargo tonnage is expected to remain about two-thirds of deplaned cargo. However, changes in Humboldt County’s industrial mix could change this ratio.

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AIRCRAFT OPERATIONS FORECASTS

National and State Forecasts Both the Federal Aviation Administration and the Division of Aeronautics have prepared official forecasts for commercial and general aviation operations at Arcata-Eureka Airport. The FAA’s Terminal Area Forecast calls for an eight (8) percent increase in total operations over the 15 year forecast period, from 53,376 in 2000 to 57,599 in 2015. The California Aviation System Plan (1999) anticipates a 6 percent increase in operations reaching 69,063 operations by 2020.

Demands Specific to Arcata-Eureka Airport The number of aircraft operations at an airport is influenced both by national and regional conditions and by various circumstances specific to the individual airport. Major influences impacting Ar- cata-Eureka Airport’s aircraft operations forecast include: ! Facilities and Services Available—Existing commercial and general aviation facilities and services at Arcata-Eureka Airport are satisfactory for the airport’s current level of activity. Ex- panding the airline terminal and automobile parking area, adding a full-service FBO (e.g., car rental establishment), along with a 502-foot runway extension, will largely remove the remaining constraints to the airport realizing its full potential. ! Airline Service Providers—Skywest and Horizon airlines offer scheduled passenger service to the residents and businesses in the greater Humboldt County area. Together, the airline service providers make up nearly a quarter (12,000 operations) of the Arcata-Eureka Airport’s total annual operations. Demand for scheduled passenger service is anticipated to be a significant source of Arcata-Eureka Airport’s annual airport operations. ! Coast Guard Operations—Helicopter flight training operations conducted by Coast Guard rotorcraft are also a significant

source of operations at Arcata-Eureka Airport. The Coast Guard’s helicopter operations accounts for approximately 30 percent (15,000 operations) of the airport’s total annual operations.

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! Extent of Transient Aircraft Use—Increased business, corporate, and industrial development within the Humboldt County Bay Area is expected to generate increased aircraft operations at Arcata-Eureka Airport. Larger general aviation aircraft, including turboprops and business jets, will generate much of this increased activity.

! Number and Type of Based Aircraft—The shift toward pro- portionately more complex single-engine airplanes at Arcata- Eureka Airport will tend to push operations counts upward more rapidly than the rate of based aircraft growth. Typically, complex aircraft are used more frequently and thus generate more operations per aircraft.

Annual Operations Demand Conclusions Continued growth in annual aircraft operations at Arcata-Eureka Airport is anticipated. This growth in operations will be generated by the anticipated increase in commercial activity and increase use by transient corporate/business jet aircraft. The percentage split between local operations and itinerant operations is projected to change slightly over the 20-year planning period, with 55 of operations being local and 45 itinerant. Future growth in itinerant activity is largely attributed to increased activity by corporate/business transient aircraft and increased commercial airline activity. Operations by commercial airline aircraft will not grow propor- tionately to the growth in passenger enplanements, due to anticipated increases in seating capacity (i.e., larger aircraft). Initially, the switch to larger aircraft will include both larger turboprops and regional jets. Over the life of this plan, the fleet serving Arcata- Eureka is forecast to only regional jets. Although there is the potential for some turboprops to remain in the fleet, for facility planning and noise modeling, the more demanding regional jets were used. Table 2A summarizes the Master Plan 20-year forecast of future annual aircraft operations for Arcata-Eureka Airport. The Master Plan forecast projects that annual aircraft operation at Arcata- Eureka Airport will increase from the current (2004) level of 49,000 to 55,000 in the year 2024.

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Based Aircraft Demand Factors Current and future demand for based aircraft parking space in hangars, tiedowns, and transient parking at Arcata-Eureka Airport is influenced by a variety of factors. Some of these factors are national or regional in character; others are specific to Arcata-Eureka Airport. Each of these demand factors needs to be considered in the development of based aircraft forecasts for the airport.

National Demand Factors National influences on local based aircraft demand are significant in that they are external influences, largely beyond the direct control of the airport or local community. These demand factors are part of what determines the growth rates of general aviation. The following national demand factors were taken from the FAA Aero- space Forecasts, 2002-2013:

! Total active general aviation aircraft fleet

! Total hours flown by aircraft type

! Total active pilots The growth of active general aviation aircraft fleet is forecast to increase slightly (0.3 percent annually) over the 12-year forecast period, with the number of active aircraft increasing from 216,200 in 2001 to 225,300 in 2013. The turbojet fleet is anticipated to experience the largest amount of growth (3.5 percent annually) reaching 10,900 aircraft in 2013. This increase in jet activity is attributed to the shift from commercial air travel to corporate/business air travel. General aviation hours flown is projected to increase by 1.1 percent annually, from 29.0 million in 2001 to 32.9 million in 2013. Growth in pilot population is also anticipated; an annual increase of 1.1 percent over the 12-year forecast period. By all indices, the growth rate of general aviation will be generally positive in the years ahead. Increases in the number of based aircraft at Arcata-Eureka Airport will mainly depend on decisions by individuals and businesses as to where to base their aircraft.

State and Regional Demand Factors Statewide forecasts have been established by the California Avia- tion System Plan (1999). The System Plan includes all public use airports in California. The state’s forecast methodology allocates

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aviation activity in a top-down manner; the forecasts are distrib- uted to respective geographic areas, then sub-areas and ultimately to individual airports. Over the next 20 years, the state plan anticipates an increase of one based aircraft at Arcata-Eureka Airport.

Demands Specific to Arcata-Eureka Airport The following airport-specific demand influences partially overlap the above national and state demand factors, but are more reflec- tive of the conditions existing at Arcata-Eureka Airport.

! Nearby Airports—Nine public-use airports are located in the County of Humboldt (see Table 1B). Arcata-Eureka Airport is the only airport in the county offering airline service, precision approach capabilities, and aviation gas and jet fuel. Arcata- Eureka Airport also has the longest runway (6,000 feet) in the County. However, Murray Field is the closest airport to the Humboldt County’s largest city, the City of Eureka. Murray Field also offers a comprehensive array of general aviation aeronautical services and facilities to the general aviation pilot community. These factors make Murray Field a more convenient airport to base one’s aircraft. However, environmental constraints have long precluded development of additional hangars at Murray Field. This has made Arcata-Eureka Airport attractive as an alternative place to base ones aircraft. This is the most important factor influencing Arcata-Eureka Airport’s total number of based aircraft.

! Airport Role—The current role of Arcata-Eureka Airport includes significant use by scheduled passenger airliners, dedicated cargo aircraft, corporate/business general aviation aircraft, and personal general aviation aircraft. Future roles will be defined less by the introduction of new uses, and more by changes in the volume of activity and the types of aircraft of the existing uses (i.e., fleet mix).

! Availability of Services—Existing facilities and services at Ar- cata-Eureka Airport are somewhat less comprehensive than at other County airports, such as Murray Field. However, given the number of based aircraft, there is limited potential in adding a full service FBO at Arcata-Eureka Airport.

! Airspace Complexity—As noted previously, Arcata-Eureka Airport is located in an area characterized by moderately complex airspace. The control zone associated with Arcata-Eureka Airport begins at ground level and extends upwards to the adja-

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cent Class E airspace. This adjacent airspace is used to transi- tion to/from the terminal area.

! Proximity to Nearby Industry—Commercial and industrial growth in the Humboldt County Region will have a positive ef- fect on the airport’s aviation activity. Users of business aircraft desiring easy access to the area are expected to make increasing use of Arcata-Eureka Airport.

! Regional Population—In the last 10 years, the population of McKinleyville increased by 18 percent (1.7 percent annually). McKinleyville is the fastest growing community in Humboldt County. During the same period, Humboldt County grew by 7 percent (1 percent annually). Historically, there has been a weak correlation between population growth and based aircraft; it is not a significant factor in forecasting based aircraft at Arcata- Eureka Airport.

! Demand for Hangar Space—Increasingly more sophisticated and expensive equipment is being added to aircraft. Because relatively few general aviation aircraft are being manufactured, existing aircraft have become more valuable. Hangars offer aircraft owners increased security and safety for their aircraft as well as protection from coastal conditions. In a break from past trends, there is now clear interest in hangars for general aviation aircraft at Arcata-Eureka Airport. There are over 100 aircraft owners on the waiting list for hangars at Murray Field. As de- veloping hangars there will be difficult, due to environmental constraints, many aircraft owners have expressed a willingness to base at Arcata-Eureka Airport.

Based Aircraft Demand Conclusions In recognition of the above-noted national, state, and local demand factors and planning projections, the Airport Master Plan Update concludes that there is potential for an increase in Arcata-Eureka Airport’s based aircraft population. The plan projects that based aircraft at the Arcata-Eureka Airport will increase by 40 additional aircraft over the 20-year forecast period. This assumes that the airport’s facilities and services are adequately maintained, additional hangar space is provided and the County continues to efficiently operate the airport. Table 2A summarizes the Master Plan’s 20-year forecast for future based aircraft for the airport.

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TRANSIENT AIRCRAFT PARKING DEMANDS

The demand for transient aircraft parking positions at the airport is influenced by a combination of factors, including those mentioned above with respect to based aircraft, and those discussed subsequently which affect aircraft operations. The Master Plan forecasts that peak daytime transient aircraft parking demand will increase from the current average 10 spaces to 15 spaces over the 20-year planning period. The airport has sufficient space on the existing transient apron to accommodate anticipated demand.

Capacity Analysis

Runway Capacity Factors At most public-use airports, three basic forms of capacity have par- Runway Configuration ticular significance to master plan development — the airfield or Location of runway exits runway/taxiway system capacity; the capacity of the building area Existence of air traffic control facili- for aircraft parking, passenger handling, and other uses; and the ties and navigational aids. environmental capacity, usually measured in terms of noise im- Mix of aircraft types (including helicopters) using the airport. pacts. With respect to Arcata-Eureka Airport, an assessment of The amount of touch-and-go train- these capacities reveals the following. ing activity. The extent of instrument versus vis- ual weather conditions. Airfield Peaking conditions (i.e., the hourly, daily, and seasonal variations in An airport’s airfield capacity is measured in terms of the number of traffic demand. aircraft operations the runway and taxiway system can accommo- The proximity of nearby airports date in an hour or over the course of a year. Calculation of airfield and other factors affecting airspace capacity, particularly annual capacity, is dependent upon a variety use. of physical and operational factors such as those listed to the left.

One of the most significant variables affecting annual capacity is the extent of off-peak versus peak-period usage. At present, Ar- cata-Eureka Airport tends to have its peak activity periods in the morning, late afternoon, and on weekends. Arcata-Eureka Air- port’s existing airfield configuration is approximately 225,000 operations. For peak-period activity, the airfield’s existing hourly capacity is approximately 77 VFR operations per hour and 59 IFR operations per hour. This capacity level is normal for a non- towered facility. The annual and hourly capacities are more than adequate to accommodate foreseeable future demands.

Commercial Airline Service Facilities The operational capacities of the various airline terminal area facilities were assessed in accordance with FAA Advisory Circulars 150/5320-9, Planning and Design of Airport Terminal Facilities at the

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Nonhub Locations and 150/5320-13, Planning and Deign Guidelines for Airport Terminal Facilities. The capacities of the existing public airline passenger terminal, airline apron, and support facilities are sufficient to accommodate existing airline demand. However, to accommodate projected airline growth requirements through the 20-year planning period, these facilities will need to be enhanced. Interior modifications to the terminal and facility security improvements may be required to maintain the airport’s compliance with evolving FAA air carrier security and operational requirements. Additionally, expanding the automobile parking facilities will be required to accommodate any anticipated growth in passenger enplanements. Specific recom- mendations are presented in Chapter 4.

Aircraft Parking and Storage Nine aircraft are currently based at Arcata-Eureka Airport. There are one aircraft box hangar and 25 tie-down positions currently available at the airport. Of the 25 available tie-downs, between 5- 12 spaces are regularly occupied. New storage hangars will be built to accommodate the additional aircraft that are projected to be added to Arcata-Eureka Airport’s based aircraft fleet over the next 20 years. This combination of facilities and space is sufficient to accommodate the forecasted aircraft parking/storage demand through the 20-year planning period. Additional detailed analysis of the airport’s building area is presented in Chapter 4.

Fixed Based Operator Facilities Sufficient space is available on the airport to adequately accommodate a fixed base operator facility in the future. Specific recom- mendations regarding the configuration and use of the airport’s building area and future fixed base operator facilities are presented in Chapter 4.

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Environmental Environmental capacity – the most significant component typically being noise – is frequently the most critical form of airport capacity, particularly for those airports located amidst noise- sensitive land uses. The increasing urbanization of the airport’s environs has the potential to negatively impact the safety and efficiency of airport operations. Additionally the development of new residential uses in the immediate vicinity of the airport may result in increased noise exposure and airport/community conflicts. This encroachment by incompatible or sensitive uses is the most serious threat to the airport’s continued viability. Measures to minimize noise-related conflicts between the airport and its environs are discussed in Chapter 6.

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