FUTURE OF ROAD TRANSPORT Meeting of the Parliamentary and Scientific Committee on Tuesday 16th June ELECTRIC Cars represent freedom. You have the right to get into your for any reason at any time and go where you want, subject only to cost. An electric car with no charge will take away that freedom from you, and many consumers will resent that.

So if we want to see our road The key to the success of the The Modec , however, was network covered with electric TX1 London Taxi was its a pure electric delivery vehicle cars, then we need further wheelchair accessibility, but with a two tonne load and a improvements in technology. actually this provided space 100-mile range, which worked Lord Borwick underneath the flat floor, on the basis that there is no House of Lords But the development of electric vehicles is nothing new. I needed for the wheelchair, for range anxiety among the was the Chief Executive of siting batteries. However, my first delivery companies. FedEx and Manganese Bronze Holdings for priority was to make the taxi UPS were two of our biggest 14 years, where we made drivers rich by making a great customers for the Modec van. London black cabs. We made taxi, but what I did not focus on They can plan their routes with the TX1 London taxi – the new was that rich drivers would great accuracy and so they know standard London Taxi – diesel move out to the suburbs. The how many miles their drivers powered, with the idea of effect of this was that many would be doing every day. UPS converting it to electric later. drivers have a lot of dead warned us that in America,

Modec van in London ©Modec

When I sold out of that mileage before they start driving on the right hand side, business in 2003 I started a earning their living in London, they would do ten times as new electric delivery vehicle meaning a hybrid is a better many right hand turns as left business called Modec and I solution for their vehicles’ hand turns and we should also become chairman of a needs than a pure electric design the steering system battery company called Oxis. vehicle. accordingly. This of course had

14 Science in Parliament Vol 72 No 3 September 2015 an impact on the range of the the car pool lanes on Californian of the car, where the driver There are five features of a vehicles. freeways. A second hand Prius would see it and feel pressurised battery that must be optimised. with one of these stickers on the to do something about it. The first is the speed of This question of range anxiety window was worth about discharge, essentially the power for vehicles has a long history. The bottom line of the internal $2,000 more at five years old. output of the battery. The Indeed, electric vehicles were far combustion engine is that it is Perhaps the lesson here in the second is the speed of the more common than petrol ones very, very complex and has had UK is to allow electric cars into charge. The third feature is the at the end of the 19th century. millions of engineers working bus lanes. number of charge cycles I can In 1905 if you compared the many hours to improve it. Each do. All the pure electric car very common electric vehicles To achieve success in the one may have many thousands companies have agreed that with the awkward and dirty longer term, the electric car of components. The electric they need a minimum of 1,000 petrol ones, the driver with the really has to beat normal petrol motor would probably only have charge discharge cycles. The range anxiety would have been or vehicles, so three components and not fourth feature is the temperature the man wanting to buy petrol. studying the competition is require any maintenance. So stability and how its important. For instance, a feature why has it not conquered the At the start of the 20th century performance varies in tropical or of all internal combustion world? The answer is because most people would have arctic conditions. The final engines is their exhaust pipe, petrol and diesel are very hard to predicted that electric vehicles feature to look at is how close to which are made as attractive as beat. When you pour petrol into would be far more common the capacity edges you can get possible with chromium plating your car at the petrol pump you than the internal combustion without ruining the longevity of and placed low down at the are transferring energy at a rate engine vehicles by the start of the battery. back of the vehicle. This is the of about 30 megawatts. That the 21st century. Petrol and Of course, all of this makes it diesel cars clearly took over for ... the electric car really has to beat harder to produce and test a many decades but as politicians normal petrol or diesel engine vehicles ... new battery. If I were to invent – and consumers – become brilliant new battery chemistry more conscious of the one point where the driver means that a 20-pump petrol tomorrow, I cannot start selling it environmental impact of the cannot see them, but that is the station beside the road has the for at least three years. With combustion engine, a lot of place where they feed their power output of a modern pave testing, where you rattle resources were ploughed into fumes into the faces of bicyclists nuclear power station. Electricity the suspension of a car on a the development of a new wave and children on the pavement. at 30 megawatts would need a single mile of cobbles, this is of electric cars, including various Exhaust is, of course, poisonous, 300 mm wide cable and be far equivalent to 100 miles of use. types of hybrids. and this poison comes in many more dangerous. But nobody has yet developed a forms; no longer filled with lead, The first effective one of these In the long term, the future of robust and accepted but it is the diesel particulates was the Toyota Prius, and the electric vehicles depends on the “accelerated cycling” test that we should worry about company made two brilliant future of batteries. Right now, algorithm for batteries. most. moves when introducing this car they come in two major types – Having said all that, some great which are lessons to remember. Over the last ten years there the stationary and the moveable. work has been done on lithium The first was to ensure that the has been constant and justified The stationary batteries include titanate and there are apparently pumped storage, the marvellous several manufacturers ... the future of electric vehicles depends on system we have in Dinorwig in prototyping vehicles with a 300 the future of batteries ... North Wales. The obvious mile range, quite enough to moveable battery is in your abolish range anxiety and enable vehicle had a different body attention to carbon dioxide, but mobile phone. It is lithium ion, electric vehicles to take their shape so that it was distinctive; it a single minded pressure on the major type of batteries place in the market. enabled the driver to boast reducing CO2 meant new cars developed in the UK in the late But the rewards for whoever visually that he was doing used diesel. This then led to 1980s and early 1990s. cracks it will be huge. Low something better – and possibly more particulates in the air. In the lithium ion battery, speeds make an electric car the more virtuous – than other As the efficiency of diesel power density and energy perfect car for a teenager or drivers. (Honda, on the other engines improved, PM2.5s density improved rapidly. But elderly driver. And for a hand, made their first hybrid in increased (particulate matter new technologies develop most teenager, the electric car is cool. the same body shell as their less than 2.5 microns in size) quickly at the start of their lives, It is new technology that can be small saloon and consequently and only later did we discover and the law of diminishing marketed at an environmentally sold very few of them.) The that these particulates bypass returns is now starting to apply. aware young audience – lesson is that it is useless to be the throat and go right down So we have to look at other another piece of the latest kit to good unless everybody knows it into the lungs where they can chemistries to make our future go with their smart phones and – ask any two year old. cause most damage. If electric vehicles. The two tablets. Electric cars will, in time, The second brilliant move by somebody wants to clean up chemistries that immediately be the new vehicles of freedom. Toyota was ensuring that the the air we could do worse than come to mind are lithium Prius was allowed to travel in put the exhaust pipe at the front sulphide and lithium titanate.

Science in Parliament Vol 72 No 3 September 2015 15 FUTURE OF ROAD TRANSPORT AUTOMATED VEHICLES

and services with far-reaching each bringing specialist operating as a service on the implications. knowledge and capability to the Greenwich peninsula; secondly, project. It is supported by an automated valet parking to REALISING THE VISION advisory group, chaired by Lord improve parking space and time OF AUTOMATED Borwick, and includes more than efficiency and thirdly, the use of VEHICLES twenty organisations, each automated, low noise and zero In 2010, Google announced feeding diverse insights into emission vehicles for urban that they had been testing self- study design and the collection/delivery. Further, we driving cars on the road, gaining interpretation of results. will address cybersecurity issues substantial media attention. TRL and conduct off-street GATEway has six primary aims: has been evaluating automated simulations and trials, gaining Rob Wallis driving for many decades, 1. Demonstrate automated deeper knowledge about public Chief Executive, Transport Research Laboratory (TRL) starting in the 1950s with a ‘self- vehicles safely and effectively in perceptions, driver behaviour steering’ Standard Vanguard. public environments. and attitudes towards TRL’s system used two coils 2. Understand legal, societal and automated vehicles. mounted symmetrically across technical barriers to the front bumper to detect CREATING FUTURE implementation. offset of the vehicle from an MOBILITY electric cable buried in the 3. Inspire industry, government Beyond the GATEway project, centre of the lane under the and the wider public to engage TRL worked with Ricardo on a road surface. This technology with automated vehicles. feasibility study for the was adapted to a Citroën DS, Ford Cortina Mk II and even a Daimler single-decker bus. Coupled with a rudimentary Professor Nick Reed system, these TRL Academy Director vehicles were able to drive themselves; initially around TRL’s INTRODUCTION test track. Plans for on-road testing were ultimately still-born. TRL, the UK’s Transport Research Laboratory, was Technology has progressed created in 1933, originally as significantly. The implications for part of UK Government, and legislation, economic impact and privatised in 1996. driver behaviour have been 4. Generate valuable, exploitable Department for Transport researched by TRL in many knowledge of the systems looking into platooning of trucks A world-leader in creating the dimensions. required for effective on highways, potentially leading future of transport, our heritage management of automated to on-road trials. We are also In 2014, Innovate UK launched includes major contributions to transport. researching the deployment of the UK’s transport infrastructure the ‘Introducing Driverless Cars 5. Create a long-term test bed ultra-low-emission vehicles and international projects to UK Roads’ competition. This for future automated transport (ULEVs) where battery range supporting established and was not in order to fund the system evaluation. remains a challenge. TRL is emerging markets in developing development of new leading another consortium on transport solutions. Our in-depth technologies, but to consider the 6. Position UK plc at the behalf of Highways England to sector experience provides the wider implications of automated forefront of global industry, conduct a feasibility study into insight to recognise an vehicle deployment. TRL’s encouraging inward investment dynamic wireless power transfer. approaching revolution in reputation for independent, and job creation. This concept would enable a transport and mobility, driven by trusted and technology-agnostic In achieving these, the project vehicle to charge its batteries acceleration in the development research allowed us to develop must demonstrate and evaluate inductively while the vehicle is of connected and automated and lead the successfully funded automated vehicles. This will be driving at motorway speeds, vehicles and triggering safer, GATEway (Greenwich achieved in three public trials. dramatically increasing vehicle more efficient journeys but also Automated Transport Firstly, testing electric, driverless range and the viability of large, dramatic, broader changes in the Environment) project. GATEway shuttles each capable of carrying movement of people, goods includes eleven organisations, up to 10 passengers and commercial ULEVs.

16 Science in Parliament Vol 72 No 3 September 2015 Working with the European safer urban cycling behaviours to necessity for smart infrastructure, What are some inspiring Commission, vehicle help TfL drive the Mayor’s vision including fixed/dynamic wireless implications of this revolution? A manufacturers and the to double cycling in London by charging? Will businesses adopt few observations: automotive supply chain, we 2020. automated ULEV vehicles, 1. The UK Driving Test is 80 systematically reviewed more optimised for smooth and safe years old; TRL plays a major role than fifty vehicle safety systems AN APPROACHING freight journeys through urban in its ongoing development. such as autonomous emergency REVOLUTION centres, using wireless power How will this evolve as vehicles braking, lane departure warning There are divergent expert technologies? become automated? Will it systems and alcohol ignition opinions on how road transport become obsolete? interlocks, providing evidence to will change in the next ten years, These new emerging support possible changes in with new business models technologies create 2. Can roadside infrastructure be legislation. We are also engaged challenging the established opportunities for the UK and for removed – supplanted by in- in the push for harmonisation of mobility sector. industry, but acceleration is vehicle information displays and

... reduced fuel costs and improved public health ...

required to remain relevant and automated driving? Does the competitive. The US provides windscreen become a viewing examples: gallery rather than giving the driver a critical view of the road a) Uber emerged in five years to ahead? have millions of clients, TRL Autonomous driving 1962 operating in 300 cities globally. 3. How will automated vehicles While their business model is operate amongst manually global crashworthiness Considering vehicle automation, causing friction in established driven vehicles? Will they act standards, linked to our heritage will we see: markets, Uber is now investing aggressively to optimise journey- in developing these standards a) driver assistance systems in automated vehicles to time (for a fee?) or passively to over many decades and evolve leading to a proliferation enhance their service radically. maximise comfort and network founding the EuroNCAP protocol of partially automated vehicles, efficiency? Will they exacerbate in 1996. with a driver still present and no road rage? Air quality has an increasingly prospect of full automation for 4. Road vehicles are developed high priority. TRL has pledged many years? Established vehicle to withstand crashes (caused support to the United Nations- manufacturers are pursuing this mostly by driver error). Reduced sponsored Urban Electric model. crash risk and differences in Mobility Initiative, which aims to b) or mass adoption of fully crash types might prompt a re- achieve 30% of urban vehicles automated and driverless think into the design, materials, as ULEVs by 2030, with an vehicles, especially in urban weight and cost of such anticipated multi-trillion dollar areas, bringing major market vehicles. benefit to the global economy disruption by non-traditional 5. How will technology through reduced fuel costs and players such as Google, Uber or developers make decisions improved public health. A Tesla? Mass changes in vehicle tangible example of where TRL about codifying driving style and ownership models may b) Google has been trialling its is seeking to make an ethics into software? How will influence public transport, driverless cars for some time, environmental difference in the automated vehicles make deliveries and manufacturing with over 1.7 million miles UK is the integration of real-time instant, safety critical decisions? with significant re-shaping of the covered on Californian public air quality satellite data into our employment market. roads. This in itself is TRL actively supports the UK world-leading SCOOT traffic revolutionary but is just one and industry to participate and management and signal Considering ULEVs, will we see: dimension of profound shape this revolution in the optimisation software, working a) a revolution in propulsion – a advances in artificially intelligent global transport and mobility with the University of Leicester, breakthrough in battery system development. marketplace. It is pleasing to see the European Space Agency, technology or the development further UK Government and relevant Local Authorities. of practical EVs enabling c) Tesla is pushing electric car investment and related activity in vehicle range that matches or capabilities, investing heavily in In the push for improved vehicle automation and exceeds that of vehicles with battery technologies, including public health, we should not connectivity to support advances combustion engines. its planned ‘Gigafactory’ in in journey safety and efficiency forget that walking and cycling Nevada. They will apply an over- and stimulating a hugely have health benefits – b) improvements in battery the-air update to existing Tesla significant market opportunity. automated vehicles should not technology while traditional vehicles to enable automated discourage these activities. We combustion-engine vehicles driving on highways. have undertaken research into remain dominant – driving the

Science in Parliament Vol 72 No 3 September 2015 17 FUTURE OF ROAD TRANSPORT THE FUTURE OF ROADS AND CITIES

The Transport Systems Catapult traditionally beset the transport such as augmented-reality and is helping the UK secure as sector, whether it be congestion, 3D printing could soon render much of this market as possible pollution or the lack of "joined some of our journeys and by supporting business, creating up" thinking between the deliveries as unnecessary but jobs and driving economic different modes of transport. It the smooth movement of the growth. With a clear emphasis goes further than that, however, growing numbers of people on collaboration we are bringing by also helping the transport around the world’s already together diverse organisations industry to address wider congested cities won’t be solved across different modes of societal trends including a by technology alone. It is how transport, breaking down barriers growing and ageing global we deploy technology that will and providing a unique platform population, climate change, the determine which cities prevail. for meeting the world’s most rapid depletion of our traditional Transport should be regarded as energy resources, the shift away a key enabler to cities becoming Steve Yianni pressing transport challenges. from personal cars to mobility as smart and by overcoming Chief Executive The common goal is to a service and increasing barriers such as business Transport Systems Catapult develop future transport systems urbanisation. models and attitudes to change, that will make; we can start to unlock the In order to meet these • Travelling an end to end, user potential of such technologies. INTELLIGENT MOBILITY: challenges, Intelligent Mobility AN ECONOMIC centric experience has to cut across and go beyond ... shift away from OPPORTUNITY • A positive impact on our the traditional transport sector. Britain has a long history of personal cars ... carbon footprint Intelligent Mobility therefore transport innovation: from the • Travel safer and quicker making focuses on new and emerging One example of this is how shipbuilders who paved the way assets more productive technologies that make it the Transport Systems Catapult for globalisation, to the railways possible to achieve more for is working collaboratively with that underpinned the industrial • The UK generate a larger share less. Milton Keynes on these revolution. We pioneered the of the economic opportunities challenges. Whilst the city has era of modern , the available SMART AS STANDARD experienced great economic airline industry, air traffic control • Our transport systems more The business demand for co- success, the challenge of and even the development of resilient location of like-minded supporting sustainable growth radar. Britain is still a world • Improvements to mobility for organisations and people without exceeding the capacity leader in transport innovation, all areas of society presents significant challenges of the infrastructure, and and the Transport Systems Intelligent Mobility is about for those in charge of city ensuring achievement of key Catapult is positioning the UK at taking a different approach to planning and infrastructure. carbon reduction targets, is a the forefront of the next the challenges that have Technological advances in areas major one. revolution in how we move people and goods around the world. Encompassing everything from autonomous vehicles to seamless journey systems and multi-modal modelling software, Intelligent Mobility uses to enable the smarter, greener and more efficient movement of people and goods around the world. Intelligent Mobility is a fast growing sector with the global market estimated to be worth £900 billion a year by 2025.

18 Science in Parliament Vol 72 No 3 September 2015 To help address these and techniques is set to grow to friendly manner. If vehicles can save over 2,500 lives annually challenges, the collaborative £60 billion from £15 billion in be made to run entirely without and prevent more than 25,000 initiative MK:Smart (partly 2014. The market size, human drivers, automation serious accidents in the UK funded by HEFCE) is developing comprising modelling, simulation could also offer a new lease of alone. innovative solutions to support and augmented reality, is some mobility to those who cannot Studies undertaken by the economic growth in Milton £125 billion. The UK is an currently drive, whether on Department of Transport Keynes. Central to the project is international leader and has a account of age, disability or highlight a significant reduction the creation of a state-of-the-art strong professional services simply because they do not own in the number of 17 to 20 year ‘MK Data Hub’ which will industry. The Transport Systems a car. olds obtaining a driving licence support the acquisition and Catapult’s work is about with data showing a peak at management of vast amounts of equipping the industry to ... Introducing 48% in 1993 and a steady fall data relevant to city systems maintain this world leading Driverless Cars ... to 31% by 2011. The data for from a variety of data sources. status. 21 to 29 year olds is a similar These include data about energy Proof of the UK’s willingness to proportion from 75% to 63% and water consumption, REALISING THE invest in this area can be seen over the same period. The transport usage, data acquired BENEFITS in the three projects exploring growing popularity of usage through satellite technology, As champions of Intelligent these technologies as part of the rather than ownership will see social and economic datasets, Mobility, the Transport Systems Government’s ‘Introducing new business models begin to and crowd-sourced data. emerge, with the diversification Building on the capability of the traditional car provided by the MK Data Hub, manufacturer potentially moving the project will innovate in the towards the operation of models areas of transport, energy and such as fleet management of water management, tackling key autonomous vehicles and car demand issues. Similar projects sharing clubs. are under way across the UK which collectively will start to Recent improvements in route unlock new business models planning software that consider and enable innovative multiple transport modes is an technologies to emerge. example of the first steps being taken towards overcoming some of the challenges to mobility becoming a service, but there is Catapult and its partners are Driverless Cars to UK Roads’ still a long way to go. Part of our taking advantage of competition announced in remit at the Transport Systems developments in web December 2014. These three Catapult is to overcome the silo connectivity, integrated systems, programmes already represent a Many projects are informed by thinking that has typically public private partnership and feed into the Transport state of the art modelling and dogged the transport sector and investment of £40m. In March Systems Catapult’s data visualisation, and the emerging encourage collaboration among 2015, the Government visualisation programme, which to change all transport providers and announced the creation of a by deploying and visualising data how we think about the modes. holds huge potential for movement of people and Intelligent Mobility. This goods. ... save over 2,500 lives annually ... enhanced use of data is only The LUTZ Pathfinder £200m investment (half As we progress closer to possible because of the programme, managed by the financed by the State and half Intelligent Mobility, the benefits explosion in digital connectivity Transport Systems Catapult on by industry) to enhance the will become increasingly clear. and as this paves the way for behalf of the UK Automotive development of driverless car Reduced congestion, fewer car transport connectivity. The Council, will trial three self- technology and the systems related deaths, an easing Transport Systems Catapult is required to improve and adopt pressure on our natural unique in its approach, driving pods on the pavements the technology. resources and more flexible identifying the barriers that hold of Milton Keynes, with a focus journeys to name a few. A back modelling and visualisation on ‘last mile’ journeys. The Connected cars also take away myriad of opportunities are true potential. High on its hit list advent of autonomous vehicles the element of human fallibility, there to overcome some of the is the ‘silo approach’, where key is expected to change how we which is estimated to be at least barriers and challenges that individuals, departments and perceive car ownership. Instead partly responsible for more than stand in the way and the organisations fail to share of seeing the car as a status 90 per cent of road traffic Transport Systems Catapult looks valuable information with each symbol, people are likely to accidents. A study from KPMG, forward to helping technology other, thus mitigating the regard it as an on-demand commissioned by The Society of and society to catch up. potential of data modelling. By service which must Motor Manufacturers and 2020, the market for data, accommodate our schedules in Traders predicted that connected modelling and analytical tools an efficient, safe and eco- and autonomous vehicles would

Science in Parliament Vol 72 No 3 September 2015 19