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A View of the Near-Term Potential of Autonomous Road Transport

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A View of the Near-Term Potential of Autonomous Road Transport April 2021 The Drive for Automation A view of the near-term potential of autonomous road transport Connected Places The Drive for Automation 2 The Drive for Automation 3 Contents 1 Executive Summary 1. Executive Summary 3 2. The Road We’ve Travelled 4 There is a drive to deliver to market Connected and Autonomous Vehicles 3. Navigating L4 CAV 6 (CAVs) that are fully responsible for driving 3.1 Controlled Area Driving 10 within specified environments, known as 3.2 Driving Assistant 11 3.3 Driving as a Service 12 Level 4 CAVs (L4 CAV). 3.4 Intelligent Mobility 15 Behind this drive is the economic power of Several steps must be taken in bringing L4 4. Conclusions 17 L4 CAV vehicles, the market for CAVs in the CAV products to market. Significant time and UK is forecast to be worth £41.7bn in 20351 investment is required to complete these with most of this value an outcome of these steps, because L4 CAV are highly complex and Level 4 vehicles. involve the integration of several emerging technologies and intelligent learning software Further motivation for this drive is the systems. L4 CAVs are safety critical, with potential L4 CAV has to deliver significant potential risks to the public so a high level social and environmental impacts2. of assurance is required involving extensive In particular, L4 CAV could contribute testing and regulatory approvals. to the decarbonisation of transport, an essential part of achieving the UK’s 2050 Whilst much work has been undertaken Net Zero target. within the CAV ecosystem to date, further work is required particularly in relation to the Achieving a timely arrival at this intended following priority areas: destination for L4 CAV will require some careful navigation because: • Policy – needs to keep pace and support the rapid technological developments and • There are several types of L4 CAV, each support the various business and operational creating different economic, environmental, models that may be utilised. and social impacts. Guiding the course of industry development will help to reach a • Governance – creation of codes and favourable destination. practice to enable the approval L4 CAV on roads and provide guidelines for supporting • There are significant complex barriers to development and assurance. overcome in developing CAV capabilities, gaining assurance, developing trust, and • Collaboration & shared knowledge – building co-operation between stakeholders. continued requirement to build a culture Ensuring that experience from CAV activities of collaboration and sharing within the is captured to grow the CAV ecosystem will ecosystem to ensure the UK is at the accelerate the drive to market. forefront of further technical innovations. 1 (Catapult, 2020) 2 (CCAV, 2020) The Drive for Automation 4 The Drive for Automation 5 2 The Road We’ve Travelled LUTZ Auto Valet Pathfinder Parking ACCRA LUTZ Pathfinder UK Autodrive FLOURISH CAV R&D project with Largescale, multi- Multi-sector collaboration Multi User Scenario Catalogue for industry & academia to organisation consortia trials to developing services Connected Autonomous Vehicles deliver the world’s first of connected and automated and capabilities by linking autonomous vehicle vehicle technology to support user needs and system demonstrator in a public the introduction of self- requirements to maximise space. driving vehicles into the UK. the benefits of CAVs. Auto Valet Parking MuCCA HumanDrive R&D programme into AVP Development of a next Project delivering the single technology concluding in a generation driver aid that longest and most complex successful demonstration in aimed to avoid multi-car journey by an autonomous November 2020. collisions on motorways. vehicle on UK roads. Additionally involved the use of AI to implement intelligent driving to enhance the user experience. ServCity ACCRA MERGE Greenwich Launched in 02 to help cities Development of a system Simulation of how passengers solve how they can harness capable of allowing remote could cut their transport the latest autonomous vehicle control of a vehicles energy costs and journey times by technologies and successfully management system to sharing driverless or AV with incorporate them into a ensure it is running in zero other passengers, and how complex urban environment. emissions mode whilst in a a service can be designed to designated Dynamic Control complement existing public Zone. transport services. VeriCAV MUSICC CertiCAV Automated creation of MUSICC has delivered a Developing a high-level countless simulation system to store and share a framework for assuring the scenarios of varying library of scenarios, which safety of CAVs, working in complexity and then launched for beta testing in collaboration with WMG, automatically analyse the July 2019, and was released as University of Warwick, CAV performance (ie. how open source software in April and supported by a broad safe, how well was road 2020. industry engagement etiquette observed etc). programme. The Drive for Automation 6 The Drive for Automation 7 3 Navigating L4 CAV Through our experience of CAV projects including CAV Driving Capability safety management of the HumanDrive3, and MuCCA4 projects we have developed an understanding of the Environment Constraint Driving Behaviour Complexity challenges associated with these steps. Low CAV Challenge 1. Technology 2. CAV 4. Operations 5. Product 3. CAV Trials Development Development Development Release Assurance Needs Operational Risk However, there is a diversity of L4 CAV types • The complexity of the driving behaviour High CAV ranging from warehouse cargo robots, to Challenge – The extent of manoeuvres and decisions urban automated taxis; which has a huge made by the CAV impacts the scale effect on the development challenges. The of defining and validating the CAV magnitude of the barriers to be overcome by behaviour software these steps depends on the driving challenges – Justifying the interpretation of complex that are specific to the type of L4 CAV: driving codes in diverse set of situations • The constraint of the environment being is a huge development challenge and also These factors impact the capabilities and the however it is acknowledged that further work driven in raises complex ethical and regulatory assurances required before release to market. is required to fully implement this. – What the CAV needs to perceive from issues its surroundings impacts the sensing Overcoming these barriers is enabled by CPC and DfT’s CertiCAV6 project studied the • The potential safety risk of operations and artificial capabilities that need to the CAV ecosystem. This is the backbone assurance of L4 CAVs in detail to support – The operation of CAVs in public spaces is be developed of technology, knowhow, governance, and the UK’s CAVPASS programme. Key findings safety critical – Reliably replicating human-like relationships that supports the development were the fundamental importance in – When factors such as operational speed interpretation of other road users and delivery of CAVs. Through our work developing practice and governance, such increases and interaction with vulnerable and their intentions is not yet solved with VeriCAV5 consortium project, an as the development of CAV behavioural road users, so does the potential by AI architecture to address the important task of requirements and guidelines, to enable the consequence of failures virtual verification of L4 CAV was developed, rollout of L4 CAVs. – Where deaths are possible, the level of scrutiny is high 3 (HumanDrive consortium, 2020) 5 (Connected Places Catapult, 2020) 4 (Connected Places Catapult, 2020) 6 (Connected Places Catapult, 2020) The Drive for Automation 8 The Drive for Automation 9 To explore we’ve identified the key types of L4 CAV and assessed their route to market, relationships with Barriers and Ecosystem and their economic and environmental impact. These factors are summarised below: Barriers • Technology L4 CAV Product • Infrastructure • Liability & assurance • Lack of clarity of business/ownership models • Public trust in the system L4 CAV Product • Skills within the workforce Route to • Industry prioritisation as a result of COVID, BREXIT and Market electrification L4 CAV Product Benefits • Improved personal / social mobility (quality, cost, time, congestion and access) • Improved road safety • Supporting decarbonisation Learning & Barriers Development • Industry has already committed undertaken significant developments m • Upskilling the workforce • Increased productivity (e.g. through working from cars) • Supporting SMEs scale up through disruptive technologies • Increased data capture (vehicle and people) Ecosyste • Improved movement of goods Potential Drawbacks • Possible loss of jobs From this relationship we observe that: The types of L4 CAV that are more • Dependence on infrastructure constrained in their use can be brought • The types of L4 CAV products that can • Possible reduction in active mobility to market earlier are the key driving force handle more diverse environments • Possible mode shift away from environmentally friendly modes behind growing the ecosystem by feeding and have higher driving capabilities are back learning and development into the such as trains attractive in their potential economic CAV ecosystem. and environmental impact. However, their route to market must overcome As a result, we identified four key categories of L4 CAV opportunities, as follows: significant barriers and must be supported • Controlled area driving by a mature CAV ecosystem
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