Position Paper / November 2015 Scenarios for Autonomous Vehicles – Opportunities and Risks for Transport Companies Imprint Verband Deutscher Verkehrsunternehmen e. V. (VDV) Kamekestr. 37–39 · 50672 Cologne · Germany T +49 221 57979-0 · F +49 221 57979-8000
[email protected] · www.vdv.de Contact Martin Röhrleef üstra Hannover, Head of the Mobility Association Department Chairman of the VDV working group “Multimodal Mobility” T +49 511 1668-2330 F +49 511 1668-962330
[email protected] Dr. Volker Deutsch VDV, Head of the Traffic Planning Department T +49 221 57979-130 F +49 221 57979-8130
[email protected] Dr. Till Ackermann VDV, Head of the Business Development Department T +49 221 57979-110 F +49 221 57979-8110
[email protected] Figure sources Title, page 18 VDV Page 5 VDA Page 9 Morgan Stanley Summary: Autonomous vehicles: opportunities and risks for public transport The development and operation of fully automated, driverless vehicles (“autonomous vehicle”) will have a disruptive impact on the transport market and thoroughly mix up the present usage patterns as well as the present ownership and business models. The autonomous vehicle is a game changer, not least because the traditional differences between the various modes of transport become indistinct as an autonomous vehicle can be everything, in principle: a private car, a taxi, a bus, a car-sharing vehicle or a shared taxi. To express it dramatically: the autonomous vehicle could be part of the public transport system – but it could also seriously threaten the existence of today’s public and long-distance transport: The autonomous vehicle can threaten the existence of public transport because it makes driving much more attractive.